nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2014‒06‒14
thirty-one papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Preserving Eastern or Offshore Oil for Preventing Green Paradoxes? By Mark Schopf
  2. Adoption and diffusion of renewable energy technologies: Influence of the policy mix in the manufacturing industry By Mattes, Katharina; Müller, Simon; Jäger, Angela; Weidner, Nadezda; Weißfloch, Ute
  3. Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: an assessment with the POLES model By Patrick Criqui; Silvana Mima; Philippe Menanteau; Alban Kitous
  4. Invention in energy technologies: Comparing energy efficiency and renewable energy inventions at the firm level By Rexhäuser, Sascha; Löschel, Andreas
  5. The impact of a feed-in tariff on wind power development in Germany By Hitaj, Claudia; Schymura, Michael; Löschel, Andreas
  6. Unilateral Climate Policy: Harmful or even Disastrous? By Hendrik Ritter; Mark Schopf
  7. Should marginal abatement costs differ across sectors? The effect of low-carbon capital accumulation. By Adrien Vogt-Shilb; Guy MEUNIER; Stéphane Hallegate
  8. Household cooking fuel choice and adoption of improved cookstoves in developing countries : a review By Malla, Sunil; Timilsina, Govinda R
  9. A dynamic analysis of causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol By Papież, Monika
  11. Stochastic Frontier Models for Long Panel Data Sets: Measurement of the Underlying Energy Efficiency for the OECD Countries By Massimo Filippini; Elisa Tosetti
  12. How inertia and limited potentials affect the timing of sectoral abatements in optimal climate policy By Guy MEUNIER
  13. Towards a Clean Vehicle Fleet: from Households’ Valuation of Fuel Efficiency to Policy Implications By Bénédicte Meurisse; Maxime Le Roy
  14. Energy, backstop endogeneity, and the optimal use of groundwater By James Roumasset; Christopher Wada
  15. Does oil price uncertainty transmit to the Thai stock market? By Jiranyakul, Komain
  16. Emissions Trading, Firm Heterogeneity, and Intra-Industry Reallocations in the Long Run By Konishi, Yoshifumi; Tarui, Nori
  17. Inflation Expectations and How it Explains the Inflationary Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Michigan Survey By Benjamin Wong
  18. How the policy mix and its consistency im-pact innovation: Findings from company case studies on offshore wind in Germany By Reichardt, Kristin; Rogge, Karoline
  19. The environmental Kuznets curve in a public spending model of economic growth By Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou
  20. The Role of Market Structure and Federal Renewable Fuel Standards in the Growth of the Cellulosic Biofuel Sector By Tristan Skolrud; Gregmar Galinato; Suzette Galinato; Richard Shumway; Jonathan Yoder
  21. Potenziale einer biobasierten Wirtschaft By Junker, Franziska Julia; Haß, Marlen; Hubold, Gerd; Kreins, Peter; Salamon, Petra; Seintsch, Björn
  22. The Impact of Foreign Investment Restrictions on the Stock Returns of Oil Sands Companies By Eugene Beaulieu; Matthew Saunders
  23. Option value in low-carbon technology policies By Guy MEUNIER; Dominique Finon
  24. The Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Primer By David I. Stern
  25. Gasoline Prices, Transport Costs, and the U.S. Business Cycles By Hakan Yilmazkuday
  26. On the Risk Comovements between the Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates By Gilles De Truchis; Benjamin Keddad
  27. Industrial Policy for a sustainable growth path By Karl Aiginger
  28. The political economy of research and innovation in organic photovoltaics (OPV) in different world regions By Turkeli S.; Kemp R.P.M.
  29. Risk Aversion and Dynamic Games Between Hydroelectric Operators under Uncertainty By Abdessalem Abbassi; Ahlem Dakhlaoui; Lota D.Tamini
  30. Regulatory emission limits for mobile sources and the Porter hypothesis: a survey of the literature By Franckx, Laurent
  31. Cheaper electricity or a better river? Estimating fluvial ecosystem value in Southern France By Anna Créti; Federico Pontoni

  1. By: Mark Schopf (University of Paderborn)
    Abstract: This paper deals with possible foreign reactions to unilateral carbon supply reducing policies. It differentiates between demand side and supply side reactions as well as between intra- and intertemporal shifts of greenhouse gas emissions. Ritter & Schopf (2013) integrate stock-dependent marginal physical costs of extracting fossil fuels into Eichner & Pethig’s (2011) general equilibrium carbon leakage model. Using this model, we change the policy instrument from an emissions trading scheme to a deposit preserving system. Thereby, we distinguish between purchasing high-value and low-value reserves. The results are as follows: In case of eastern oil kept underground, the weak and the strong green paradox arise under similar conditions to those derived by Ritter & Schopf (2013). In case of offshore oil kept underground, there is intra- and there can be intertemporal carbon leakage, but neither the present emissions nor the cumulative climate damages increase.
    Keywords: Natural Resources, Carbon Leakage, Green Paradox
    JEL: Q31 Q32 Q54
    Date: 2013–06
  2. By: Mattes, Katharina; Müller, Simon; Jäger, Angela; Weidner, Nadezda; Weißfloch, Ute
    Abstract: Rising energy prices and political goals which address climate change, such as the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, increase the importance of using renewable energies and technologies for generating these. Since the manufac-turing industry is one of the major energy consumers in Germany, this paper focuses on the diffusion of renewable energy technologies to generate power in the manufacturing industry. Using data from the German Manufacturing Survey 2012 for 1,594 firms, we analyse the relation between the usage of renewable energy technology and firms' characteristics, also accounting for structural de-terminants. In addition, the reasons for the decision to use these technologies and, in particular, the relevance of the political framework are examined. Our findings show that the producers of end-consumer goods are more likely to use renewable energy technologies compared to other manufacturing firms. The availability of resources plays a substantial role, whereas the energy intensity of the firm is less important for the introduction of renewable energy technologies. When considering the chosen reasons for adoption, firms mentioned most fre-quently that they anticipate rising energy prices. The policy mix, however, is less often mentioned and mostly together with other reasons. --
    Keywords: renewable energy technologies,manufacturing industry,technology adoption,diffusion of innovations,quantitative analysis
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Patrick Criqui (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I); Silvana Mima (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I); Philippe Menanteau (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I); Alban Kitous (IPTS - Joint Research Centre - Commission européenne)
    Abstract: This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.
    Keywords: Technological change ; Technology modelling ; Path dependency ; Learning by doing ; Learning by searching ; Mitigation scenarios ; Emission constraints
    Date: 2014–05
  4. By: Rexhäuser, Sascha; Löschel, Andreas
    Abstract: Many countries, especially in Europe, have ambitious goals to transform their national energy systems towards renewable energies. Technological change in both renewable production and efficient use of energy can help to make these targets come true. Using a panel of German firms linked to the PATSTAT patent data, we study invention in both types of energy technologies and how their inventors differ in terms of central firm-specific characteristics. More importantly, we study the relation between conventional (i.e. non-energy) invention and energy invention within the firms. The results from dynamic count data models point to a stimulating effect of conventional inventions for energy efficiency technologies but have no effect on inventions in renewable energies. --
    Keywords: innovation,invention,renewable energy,energy efficiency,dynamic count data
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Hitaj, Claudia; Schymura, Michael; Löschel, Andreas
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of a feed-in tariff for renewable power on wind power investment in Germany at the county level from 1996-2010 controlling for windiness and access to the electricity transmission grid. After the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) was passed in 2000, the feed-in tariff became linked to wind power potential, such that more windy locations received a lower incentive per unit of output. We find that a 1 e-cent/kWh increase in the feed-in tariff rate would increase additions to capacity at the national level by 764MWper year from 1996- 2010 or 1,528 MW per year from 2005-2010. We analyze counterfactual scenarios, in which a uniform incentive is offered instead of the wind-dependent EEG incentive. Significantly more wind power plants are installed along the northern coastal counties in the uniform incentive scenario. We find that while the uniform incentive results in greater total wind power output per installed capacity, the EEG is ultimately more efficient by achieving 1% greater wind power output per euro and 3.7% greater reductions in power sector emissions per euro. In addition, we find a significant response from investors to an EEG provision that shifted the cost of transmission system upgrades from wind power developers to grid operators in 2000. The lack of a signal on scarcity of transmission capacity has likely resulted in a distribution of wind power plants that makes suboptimal use of existing infrastructure, necessitating investment in new transmission corridors. --
    Keywords: wind power,feed-in tariff,electricity transmission
    JEL: Q0 Q42 Q50
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Hendrik Ritter (University of Magdeburg); Mark Schopf (University of Paderborn)
    Abstract: This paper deals with possible foreign reactions to domestic carbon demand reducing policies. It differentiates between demand side and supply side reactions as well as between intra- and intertemporal shifts of greenhouse gas emissions. In our model, we integrate a stock-dependent marginal physical cost of extracting fossil fuels into Eichner & Pethig's (2011) general equilibrium carbon leakage model. The results are as follows: Under similar but somewhat tighter conditions than those derived by Eichner & Pethig (2011), a weak green paradox arises. Furthermore, a strong green paradox can arise in our model under supplementary constraints. That means a "green" policy measure might not only lead to a harmful acceleration of fossil fuel extraction but to an increase in the cumulative climate damages at the same time. In some of these cases there is even a cumulative extraction expansion, which we consider disastrous.
    Keywords: Natural Resources, Carbon Leakage, Green Paradox
    JEL: Q31 Q32 Q54
    Date: 2013–06
  7. By: Adrien Vogt-Shilb (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement); Guy MEUNIER (Alimentation et Sciences Sociales); Stéphane Hallegate (The World Bank - Banque mondiale)
    Abstract: The optimal timing, sectoral distribution, and cost of greenhouse gas emission reductions is different when abatement is obtained though abatement expenditures chosen along an abatement cost curve, or through investment in low-carbon capital. In the latter framework, optimal investment costs differ in each sector: they are equal to the value of avoided carbon emissions, minus the value of the forgone option to invest later. It is therefore misleading to assess the cost-efficiency of investments in low-carbon capital by comparing levelized abatement costs, that is, efforts measured as the ratio of investment costs to discounted abatement. The equimarginal principle applies to an accounting value: the Marginal Implicit Rental Cost of the Capital (MIRCC) used to abate.Two apparently opposite views are reconciled. On the one hand, higher efforts are justified in sectors that will take longer to decarbonize, such as urban planning; on the other hand, the MIRCC should be equal to the carbon price at each point in time and in all sectors. Equalizing the MIRCC in each sector to the social cost of carbon is a necessary condition to reach the optimal pathway, but it is not a sufficient condition. Decentralized optimal investment decisions at the sector level require not only the information contained in the carbon price signal, but also knowledge of the date when the sector reaches its full abatement potential.
    Keywords: Climatic Change, Mitigation Policy, Green Growth, Clean Capital Accumulation, Abatement costs, changement climatique, croissance verteatténuationpolitiqueémission de gaz, gaz à effet de serreanalyse des coûts
    JEL: L98 O21 O25 Q48 Q51 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Malla, Sunil; Timilsina, Govinda R
    Abstract: Improving access to affordable and reliable energy services for cooking is essential for developing countries in reducing adverse human health and environmental impacts hitherto caused by burning of traditional biomass. This paper reviews empirical studies that analyze choices of fuel and adoption of improved stoves for cooking in countries where biomass is still the predominant cooking fuel. The review highlights the wide range of factors that influence households’ cooking fuel choices and adoption of improved stoves, including socioeconomic (access and availability, collection costs and fuel prices, household income, education and awareness), behavioral (food tastes, lifestyle), and cultural and external factors (indoor air pollution, government policies). The paper also summarizes the evidence on the significant adverse health impacts from exposure to indoor smoke, especially among women and young children. In low-income households, perceived health benefits of adopting improved stoves and financial benefits from fuel savings tend to be outweighed by the costs of improved stoves, even after accounting for the opportunity cost of time spent collecting biomass fuel. The paper identifies knowledge and evidence gaps on the success of policies and programs designed to scale up the adoption of improved cookstoves.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Renewable Energy,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency
    Date: 2014–06–01
  9. By: Papież, Monika
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to analyse causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol. The analysis conducted in this paper is a dynamic one, and the data used consist of weekly futures prices of crude oil, corn, and ethanol from January 5, 2007 till April 11, 2014. The assessment of causal links between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol is carried out with the use of rolling regression applied to augmented-VAR framework proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The application of the rolling regression procedures into the modified Wald (MWALD) causality test allows for the investigation of the persistence of stability in causal relations between analysed prices. The results obtained indicate that the linkages between energy prices and agricultural commodity prices change in the period analysed. The results of Granger causality tests reveal that in the analysed period the price of corn influences the price of energy (crude oil and ethanol). Also crude oil prices influence corn prices and ethanol prices. However, the influence of ethanol prices on crude oil prices and corn prices has not been observed.
    Keywords: Granger causality, rolling regression, Toda -Yamamoto tests, commodity prices.
    JEL: C32 Q13 Q41
    Date: 2014–06–09
  10. By: Katarzyna Piechota (Nicolaus Copernicus University)
    Abstract: The sudden development of the mankind at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries brought along the growth in importance of exploiting the energy of different type. When uninterruptedly a demand for the energy is growing, and abilities of increasing the supply for her are limited, we can deal with the occurrence of an energy crisis. The article is moving the subject matter of an global energy crisis. A definition of an energy crisis, his genesis and effects were included in it for world economies, as well as ways of the fight against it in various countries. It is introducing data concerning the supply the energy in the world and of demand for it. It is presenting information concerning using different energy sources in final years. The article is moving also a subject matter of renewable energy sources (RES) and their meaning in the fight against an energy crisis. At the work an available literature on the subject, as well as publications and reports were used International Energy Agency, British Petroleum, U.S. Energy Information Administration, as well as the Goods Stock Exchange of the Energy. The article has survey character, letting understand the commercial distress of energetics, as well as the threat to world economies an energy crisis is carrying which. Growing demand for the energy, more and more difficult access to deposits of fuels and the increasing population numbers, in particular in developing countries, deepening problems in guaranteeing the access to the energy cause. It is hard explicitly to determine, what role in the fight against this phenomenon renewable energy sources will play. In them great hopes are being bent, but economic reality in particular, is verifying them. RES are uncertain, expensive and rather ineffective economically.
    Keywords: energy crisis, renewable energy, renewable energy, energy
    Date: 2013–02
  11. By: Massimo Filippini (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Elisa Tosetti (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a general approach for estimating stochastic frontier mod- els, suitable when using long panel data sets. We measure efficiency as a linear combi- nation of a finite number of unobservable common factors, having coefficients that vary across firms, plus a time-invariant component. We adopt recently developed economet- ric techniques for large, cross sectionally correlated, non-stationary panel data models to estimate the frontier function. Given the long time span of the panel, we investigate whether the variables, including the unobservable common factors, are non-stationary, and, if so, whether they are cointegrated. To empirically illustrate our approach, we estimate a stochastic frontier model for energy demand, and compute the level of the “underlying energy efficiency” for 24 OECD countries over the period 1980 to 2008. In our specification, we control for variables such as Gross Domestic Product, energy price, climate and technological progress, that are known to impact on energy consumption. We also allow for hetero- geneity across countries in the impact of these factors on energy demand. Our panel unit root tests suggest that energy demand and its key determinants are integrated and that they exhibit a long-run relation. The estimation of efficiency scores points at European countries as the more efficient in consuming energy.
    Keywords: Energy demand; panels; common factors; principal components.
    JEL: C10 C31 C33
    Date: 2014–06
  12. By: Guy MEUNIER (Alimentation et Sciences Sociales)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the optimal timing of greenhouse gas abatement e orts in a multi-sectoral model with economic inertia, each sector having a limited abatement potential. It defines economic inertia as the conjunction of technical inertia - a social planner chooses investment on persistent abating activities, as opposed to choosing abatement at each time period independently and increasing marginal investment costs in abating activities. It shows that in the presence of economic inertia, optimal abatement efforts (in dollars per ton) are bell-shaped and trigger a transition toward a low-carbon economy. The authors prove that optimal marginal abatement costs should differ across sectors: they depend on the global carbon price, but also on sector-specific shadow costs of the sectoral abatement potential. The paper discusses the impact of the convexity of abatement investment costs: more rigid sectors are represented with more convex cost functions and should invest more in early abatement. The conclusion is that overlapping mitigation policies should not be discarded based on the argument that they set different marginal costs (" different carbon prices") in different sectors.
    Keywords: Climatic Change, Mitigation Policy, clean capital accumulation, innovation, green growth, changement climatique, croissance vertepolitiqueinnovation, émission de gazatténuationcoût économique
    JEL: L98 O21 O25 Q48 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Bénédicte Meurisse (EconomiX, Université Paris Ouest Nanterre la Défense); Maxime Le Roy (Climate Economics Chair)
    Abstract: This paper investigates household behaviour with regard to vehicle fuel efficiency. We propose to approach the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for better fuel efficiency through the Hicksian compensating variation in income. Specifically, we distinguish the Willingness to Pay or to Accept (WTA) buying a more fuel-efficient car from the theoretical WTP for a reduction in fuel consumption without changing one’s car. Then by assuming that the household has to replace its car, we estimate a WTP for the cleanest car. We also analyse what effect a fuel tax and/or a feebate scheme (e.g. a bonus-malus scheme) have on the WTP for the cleanest car and on the driven mileage. We find that the WTP for the cleanest car decreases following the implementation of a fuel tax. To the contrary, a feebate system leads to an increase in this WTP. But we also find that reducing the market price of the new vehicle (i.e. through a bonus) is not worthwhile in the light of the rebound effect. However, a fuel tax – as soon as it exceeds a certain level – is able to nullify the rebound effect.
    Keywords: Fuel efficiency, Willingness to pay, Fuel tax, Feebate scheme, Rebound effect
    JEL: D11 Q58
    Date: 2014–05
  14. By: James Roumasset (University of Hawai‘i at Manoa & University of Hawai’i Economic Research Organization); Christopher Wada (University of Hawai’i Economic Research Organization)
    Abstract: To meet the growing demand for freshwater, many regions have increased pumping of groundwater in recent years, resulting in declining groundwater levels worldwide. A promising development is technical change regarding groundwater substitutes such as desalination and wastewater recycling. However, because these technologies are energy intensive, optimal implementation also depends on future energy price trends. We provide an operational model for the case of reverse-osmosis seawater desalination. In an application to the Pearl Harbor aquifer in Hawaii, we find that allowing the cost of desalination to increase at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent over the next century results in a substantially steeper efficiency price path for water. The higher prices decrease optimal groundwater extraction and induce a slower head drawdown over a longer period of time, delaying the transition to desalination by over 30 years. Because the rise in energy costs exacerbates efficiency losses from under-pricing, any delay in implementing efficiency pricing will cause either a greater future increase in prices or the need for rationing. Reforming prices sooner rather than later may be more politically feasible, given that consumers may be more amenable to a gradual rise in prices today than, say, a sudden doubling or tripling of prices ten years from now. With this foundation, we outline a research agenda for extending the framework to other groundwater substitutes and for adaptation to climate change.
    Keywords: Dynamic optimization, endogenous backstop, groundwater management, water-energy nexus
    JEL: Q25
    Date: 2014–05
  15. By: Jiranyakul, Komain
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of oil price volatility (uncertainty) on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Monthly data from May 1987 to December 2013 are applied to the two-stage procedure. In the first step, a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is estimated to obtain the volatility series of stock market index and oil price. In the second step, the pairwise Granger causality tests are performed to determine the direction of volatility transmission between oil to stock markets. It this found that movement in real oil price does not adversely affect real stock market return, but stock price volatility does affect real stock return. In addition, there exists a positive one-directional volatility transmission running from oil to stock market. These findings give important implications for risk management and policy measures.
    Keywords: Real stock price, real oil price, volatility transmission, emerging markets
    JEL: C22 G15 Q40
    Date: 2014–06
  16. By: Konishi, Yoshifumi; Tarui, Nori
    Abstract: Design of environmental regulation has substantial implications for size distribution and mass of firms within and across industries in the long run. In a general equilibrium model that accounts for endogenous entry and exit of heterogeneous firms, the welfare impacts of emissions trading are analytically decomposed into the effects on economy-wide income, mass of firms, size distribution, markups, and factor prices. Distortionary impacts on size distribution and permit price depend on the conditionality of permit distribution, interactions between changes in entry-exit conditions and in aggregate accounting conditions, the factor intensity of entry, and coverage of non-pollution-intensive sectors in emissions trading.
    Keywords: Conditional Allocation Rules, Emissions Trading, Heterogeneous Firms, Endogenous, Entry/Exit, Melitz Model, Imperfect Competition
    JEL: Q50 Q52 Q58
    Date: 2014–05
  17. By: Benjamin Wong
    Abstract: Analysis of the Michigan Survey data confirms U.S. inflation expectations are not perfectly anchored in the event of an oil price shock. Two key results emerge through counterfactual analysis. First, better anchoring of inflation expectations can ameliorate the mild inflation impact which occurs 10 to 12 months after an oil price shock. Second, an initial large burst of inflation from an oil price shock always occurs regardless whether inflation expectations are anchored or not. Therefore, while better anchoring of inflation expectations can lead to better inflation outcomes, these gains can be limited.
    Keywords: Oil price shocks, Michigan Survey, Inflation expectations
    JEL: C32 D84 E31
    Date: 2014–06
  18. By: Reichardt, Kristin; Rogge, Karoline
    Abstract: Transforming the energy system to one with a greater importance of renewable power generation technologies requires redirecting and accelerating technological change. In this transition, so-called policy mixes play a crucial role. Yet precisely how policy mixes affect technological innovation remains poorly understood. To remedy this, in this study we choose a qualitative company case study approach to analyze the innovation impact of the elements of a policy mix - its policy strategy and instrument mix - and their consistency. Taking offshore wind in Germany as research case, we find that the German offshore wind policy mix, its consistency and perceived high credibility have been vital innovation drivers. Specifically, its consistent policy strategy and the consistency of the policy strategy with the instrument mix appear crucial to research, development and demonstration. Still, for this emerging technology to be adopted the policy mix seems to require a consistent and comprehensive instrument mix. --
    Keywords: policy mix,policy strategy,instrument mix,consistency,innovation,off-shore wind
    Date: 2014
  19. By: Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou
    Abstract: This paper theoretically analyzes the dynamics of economic growth and the environmental Kuznets curve. This curve states an inverse U-relationship between pollution and income. The presented model specifically shows how a dynamic environmental Kuznets curve can emerge by introducing pollution and abatement technology in a public spending model of endogenous economic growth. We also derive the turning point in function of the parameters of the model. The numerical section demonstrates that when taxes are below some threshold, the turning point decreases with taxes but it increases when taxes are above the threshold point given some explanations about an N-shaped Kuznets curve. Additionally, the simulations demonstrate that taxes reduce the level of pollution by pulling down the environmental Kuznets curve. Lastly the numerical exercises highlight that the pollution level of the social planner problem is less than that of the representative agent.
    Keywords: Abatement; Dynamic Optimization; Endogenous Growth Theory; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Numerical Simulations; Pollution; Public Spending; Taxes; Turning Point
    JEL: C61 C63 H23 H41 H54 H61 O41 O44
    Date: 2014–06–09
  20. By: Tristan Skolrud; Gregmar Galinato; Suzette Galinato; Richard Shumway; Jonathan Yoder (School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University)
    Abstract: This article examines the effect of the Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) and market power on the growth potential of the cellulosic biofuel sector. We develop a general equilibrium model to show how changes in the regulations governing cellulosic fuel production affect the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol. We find that an increase in the cellulosic biofuel production mandate does not have any significant effect on the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol given the opportunity to purchase waiver credits at low waiver prices. In contrast, raising waiver price slightly relative to the status quo significantly increases the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol. Given the relative infancy of the cellulosic ethanol sector, the market structure may change over time. When more firms enter and market power decreases, there is an increase in the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol. As market power declines, the marginal effect of an increase in the waiver price on equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol rises which accelerates growth of the sector.
    Keywords: Cellulosic Biofuel, Renewable Fuel Standards, Waiver, Market Structure
    JEL: Q48 Q16 Q43
    Date: 2014–05
  21. By: Junker, Franziska Julia; Haß, Marlen; Hubold, Gerd; Kreins, Peter; Salamon, Petra; Seintsch, Björn
    Abstract: Mit nachwachsenden Ressourcen die Abhängigkeit von Öl vermindern - so untertitelt die Bundesregierung ihre Strategie zur Förderung der Bioökonomie in Deutschland (BMBF 2013). Zur Bioökonomie zählen alle Wirtschaftsbereiche, die nachwachsende Rohstoffe erzeugen, verarbeiten und handeln. Nachwachsende Rohstoffe werden vornehmlich von der Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie der Fischerei und Aquakultur zur Verfügung gestellt. Doch in welchem Umfang geschieht dies? Welche Mengen werden importiert, welche exportiert? Wie werden sie gegenwärtig genutzt? Fallen Abfall- und Reststoffe an, die verwertet werden können? Ziel dieses Berichts ist, einen Überblick über Produktion, Handel und Verwendung von Produkten aus Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie aus Fischerei und Aquakultur zu geben. Zukünftige Potenziale sowie Möglichkeiten, Rest- bzw. Abfallstoffe energetisch zu verwerten, werden bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Landwirtschaft vor allem Futter- und Lebensmittel erzeugt. Dennoch werden in Deutschland bereits mehr als zehn Prozent der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche zur Herstellung von Rohstoffen für energetische und stoffliche Verwendung genutzt. Die Potenziale für Energiegewinnung aus Rest- und Abfallstoffen erscheinen gering. Der größte Teil der Fisch- und Fischereinebenprodukte dient in Deutschland als Nahrungsmittel. Abfälle bei der Fischverarbeitung können vollständig zur Herstellung von Fischmehl und Fischöl verwendet werden. Von einer Zunahme der Fangmengen kann bei den für die deutsche Fischerei wichtigen Arten nicht ausgegangen werden. Bei der Verwendung von Rohholz in Deutschland entfallen rund drei Fünftel auf die stoffliche Nutzung, zwei Fünftel auf die energetische Verwertung. Letztere ist in den vergangenen Jahren vor allem in privaten Haushalten stark gestiegen. Die Nutzungspotenziale von Holz in Deutschland sind weitgehend ausgeschöpft oder unterliegen Restriktionen aus Gründen des Naturschutzes. -- Reducing oil dependence with renewable resources - this is how the German Federal Government subtitles its strategy to strengthen the bio-based economy (BMBF 2013). The bioeconomy encompasses all economic sectors that produce, process and trade bio-based renewable resources. The raw materials are largely provided by agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture. But in which quantities are they produced? Which quantities are imported and exported? How are the raw materials currently utilised? Are there residual or waste materials that can be used? The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of production, trade and utilisation of products from the agricultural and forestry sectors as well as from aquatic resources and aquaculture. Future potentials as well as the possibilities of using residual and waste materials for energy production are assessed. The results show that the agricultural sector primarily produces food and feed. Notwithstanding, more than ten percent of the agricultural area in Germany is currently dedicated to the production of raw materials for energy and material uses. The potentials for the generation of energy from residual and waste materials are deemed to be small. A large share of products and by-products from fisheries and aquaculture are consumed as food in Germany. Waste from fish processing can be completely used for the production of fish meal and oil. An increase of catch of the species that are relevant for the German fishery sector seems unlikely. Roughly three fifths of the consumption of raw wood in Germany are attributed to material use, the remaining two fifths to energetic use. The latter sharply increased in recent years, mainly driven by the growing demand of private households. Due to overexploitation, especially of spruce, in the past the potential use of raw wood in German forests is largely exhausted or restricted by environmental protection schemes.
    Keywords: Bioökonomie,Biomasse,Reststoffe,Energiepotenzial,bioeconomy,biomass,waste,energy potential
    JEL: Q16 Q22 Q23 Q42
    Date: 2014
  22. By: Eugene Beaulieu (University of Calgary); Matthew Saunders
    Abstract: On December 7, 2012 the Government of Canada released a policy statement and revised the guidelines for investments by State-Owned Enterprises in the Canadian oil sands. This policy statement was in response to the proposed purchase of Nexen by the Chinese SOE, CNOOC. According to the new guidelines, foreign investors must convince the Minister of Industry that a particular investment is likely to be of net benefit to Canada and those investments by foreign SOEs to acquire controlling interests in a Canadian oil sands company will be found to be of net benefit on an exceptional basis only. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of this announced policy change on the stock returns of firms operating in the oil sands. We employ an event study analysis to examine the impact of the policy change on the oil sands share price return after the announcement. We find that the announced changes to foreign investment in the oil sands significantly reduced stock returns in that industry and had a much larger negative impact on smaller oil sands companies (the juniors).
    Date: 2014–05–14
  23. By: Guy MEUNIER (Alimentation et Sciences Sociales, INRA); Dominique Finon (CIRED)
    Abstract: The political dilemma presented by the deployment of large-size low-carbon technologies (LCTs) is analysed using a simple dynamic model to investigate the relation between irreversible investments and learning-by-doing within a context of exogeneous uncertainty about the carbon price. It is shown that in some cases when information about the future carbon price is expected, the irreversibility effect holds and fewer LCT plants should be developed. In other cases, this result is reversed, and acquiring information can justify the early deployment of LCT. In particular, marginal reasoning is limited when learning-by-doing, and more generally endogenous technical change, is considered. When acquiring information is expected, the optimal policy can move from a corner optimum with no LCT deployment to an interior optimum with a strictly positive development.
    Abstract: Le dilemme politique présenté par le déploiement de technologies sobres en carbone de grande échelle (« large-size low carbon technologies » – LCTs) est examiné avec un modèle dynamique simple pour étudier la relation entre investissements irréversibles et apprentissage par la pratique au sein d'un contexte d'incertitude exogène sur le prix du carbone. Il est démontré que dans certains cas lorsque l'information sur le futur prix du carbone est attendue, l'effet d'irréversibilité s'applique et moins de centrales de LCT seraient développées. Dans d'autres cas, le résultat est l'inverse et l'acquisition d'information pour justifier un déploiement rapide des LCT. En particulier, le raisonnement marginal est limité lorsque l'apprentissage par la pratique, et plus généralement le changement technique endogène, est pris en compte. Lorsque l'acquisition d';information est attendue, la politique optimale peut se déplacer d'un optimum en coin sans déploiement de LCT à un optimum intérieur à développement strictement positif.
    Keywords: investment; irreversibilty effect; learning-by-doing; low-carbon technology; option value; investissement; effet d'irréversibilité; apprentissage par la pratique; technologie sobre en carbone; valeur d'option, économie de l'environnement, investissementmarché du carbone, information, politique optimaleinnovation technologique
    Date: 2013
  24. By: David I. Stern
    Abstract: The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is a hypothesized relationship between various indicators of environmental degradation and income per capita. As economies get richer environmental impacts first rise but eventually fall. In reality, though some types of environmental degradation have been reduced in developed countries others have not. Furthermore, the statistical evidence for the EKC is not robust and the mechanisms that might drive such patterns are still contested.
    Keywords: Economic growth, decoupling, pollution, environmental Kuznets curve, convergence
    JEL: Q53 Q56
    Date: 2014–06
  25. By: Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University)
    Abstract: The e¡èects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the price of gasoline is endogenously determined through a transportation sector that uses gasoline as an input of production. The model is estimated for the U.S. economy using ?ve macroeconomic time series, including data on transport costs and gasoline prices. The results show that although standard shocks in the literature (e.g., technology shocks, monetary policy shocks) have significant effects on the U.S. business cycles in the long run, gasoline supply and demand shocks play an important role in the short run.
    Keywords: Business Cycles, Transport Costs, Gasoline Prices
    JEL: E32 E52 F41
    Date: 2014–06
  26. By: Gilles De Truchis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Benjamin Keddad (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM))
    Abstract: This article examines the volatility dependence between the crude oil price and four US dollar exchange rates using both fractional cointegration and copula techniques. The former exploits the long memory behavior of the volatility processes to investigate whether they are tied through a common long-run equilibrium. The latter is complementary as it allows to explore whether the volatility of the markets are linked in the short run. The cointegration results conclude in favor of long-run independence for the Canadian and Japan exchange rates while few evidence of long-run dependence are found for the European and British exchange rates. Concerning the copula analysis, we conclude in favor of weak dependence when we consider static copulas. Considering time-varying copulas, it appears that dependence is sensitive to market conditions as we found increasing linkages just before the 2008 market collapse and more recently, in the aftermath of the European debt crisis.
    Keywords: comovement; volatility linkage; fractional cointegration; copula; oil market; exchange rate
    Date: 2014–05
  27. By: Karl Aiginger
    Abstract: Industrial policy is back on the agenda and the consensus is that it must be different 'this time' from the past. We redefine industrial policy for industrialised countries as a strategy to promote 'high-road competitiveness', understood as the ability of an economy to achieve 'Beyond-GDP' Goals. 'High-road strategies' are based on advanced skills, innovation, supporting institutions, ecological ambition and an activating social policy. This 'new industrial policy' is systemic, working in alignment with other policy strands and supporting social and environmental goals; it affects the structure of the economy as the whole not only the manufacturing sector. Short-term actions, such as protecting employment in unviable companies, low prices for fossil fuels, or reducing wages in high-income economies are counterproductive. To pursue an industrial policy that targets society's ultimate goals without public micromanagement will be challenging. It could be achieved (i) by setting incentives, particularly those impacting on technical progress (e.g. to make it less labour-saving and more energy-saving), (ii) by the use of the important role governments have in the education and research sectors, (iii) by greater public awareness and (iv) if consumer preferences will call for socio-ecological transition.
    Keywords: New industrial policy, climate change, competitiveness, innovation strategy
    JEL: H50 L16 L50 O20 O32 O38 O40 Q30 Q40 Q50
    Date: 2014–06
  28. By: Turkeli S.; Kemp R.P.M. (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: Purpose In this paper, we examine the status, prospects and organization of OPV research, innovation and governance in three major world regions Northern America, Western Europe and East Asia through our constructed evolutionary cognitive-institutional framework of reference. Method We gathered data from a 65-question internet-based survey conducted from February 2013 to April 2013 with OPV researchers and research managers around the world. A multi-method investigative/exploratory, descriptive statistics approach is used for analyses and discussions. Results Overall findings show that the organization of OPV research, innovation and governance in Northern America, Western Europe and East Asia reflect similar aspects, patterns with their political economies surveyed in the literature Northern Americas neo-liberal market and finance orientation, Western Europes orientation to sustainable development and policy-driven research, coordinated-regulatory inspirations and research-driven system, and East Asias neo-developmental state view with international trade, technology-export orientation. Commercialization prospects in China are lowest and highest in the US but even there expectations of market sales are low. As a disruptive technology which is competing with older generations of PV and other energy technologies, OPV requires a coordinated effort involving international cooperation, the use of public and private money. Positive elements of the three world regions availability of venture capital in the US, the meritocratic research system and ambitious goals for renewable energy in the EU, and the willingness of the Chinese government to back sunrise industries could be usefully exploited. Keywords Political Economy, Emerging Energy Technology, Research, Innovation, Governance, Organic Photovoltaics
    Keywords: Technological Change: Government Policy; Capitalist Systems: Political Economy; Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems; Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation;
    JEL: P16 P51 O38 Q55
    Date: 2014
  29. By: Abdessalem Abbassi; Ahlem Dakhlaoui; Lota D.Tamini
    Abstract: This article analyses management of hydropower dams within monopolistic and oligopolistic competition and when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we analytically determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric risk aversion coefficient, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.
    Keywords: Closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams, demand uncertainty, asymmetric risk aversion
    JEL: L94 Q25 C61 C73
    Date: 2014
  30. By: Franckx, Laurent
    Abstract: This paper reviews the available evidence on the relevance of the Porter hypothesis for automotive emission standards. It focuses on two channels through which the Porter effect may operate. First, there is evidence that emission standards for cars have had important effects on innovation at different levels in the supply chain (the “weak” form of the Porter hypothesis), without discernible long-run negative effects in industry performance. However, there is no strong evidence either that regulations lead to an overall increase in productivity (the “strong” version of the Porter hypothesis). Second, there is relatively strong evidence that countries are more likely to have more stringent domestic vehicular emission standards if they export more automobiles and automobile components to countries which themselves have more stringent vehicular standards. There is also (mixed) evidence that countries which receive more inward foreign direct investment in the automotive sector are more likely to have more stringent domestic emission standards. This suggests that imposing strict emission standards may bring some “first mover advantages” to the leading countries, in line with the Porter hypothesis.
    Keywords: Porter hypothesis, automotive emission standards, disruptive innovation, first-mover advantages, pollution control technology
    JEL: O3 Q52 Q55 Q56 R4 R48
    Date: 2014–06–05
  31. By: Anna Créti (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X, Leda-CGMP-Université Paris Dauphine - (-)); Federico Pontoni (IEFE - Università Bocconi and EconomiX - Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense - (-))
    Abstract: In the next years, France will renew a consistent share of hydroelectric concessions, among which we find those insisting on the Aspe and its tributaries (for a total of almost 100 MW). Beauty contests will take place, where bidders will present offers for technical and environmental improvements, as well as a revenue sharing percentage for Local Authorities. This framework generates a potential trade-off between revenue-sharing and environmental improvement. Our work investigates this trade-off by means of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to estimate people's preferences. The experiment has been conducted on a representative sample living in the Aspe valley. In our DCE, we translate the revenue sharing in an immediate rebate in the electricity bill. Respondents could choose higher rebates and lower ecosystem improvements or lower (or no) rebate and higher ecosystem amelioration. According to the experiment results, the highest total willingness to pay (WTP) is above € 144 per household and per year. Moreover, people's marginal WTP for a satisfactory fish stock reaches 250 €/year, that is three times the maximum rebate that was offered. Finally, all environmental attributes are considered as significant and worth a monetary effort. Therefore, hydroelectric concession bidders should give clear priority to environmental aspects.
    Keywords: Water Framework Directive, Choice Experiment, Hydropower
    Date: 2014–06–02

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