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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister; Pierre Guérin; Lutz Kilian |
| Abstract: | The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. An obvious advantage of financial and energy market data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily or weekly basis. We investigate whether mixed-frequency models can be used to take advantage of these rich data sets. We show that, among a range of alternative high-frequency predictors, changes in U.S. crude oil inventories produce substantial and statistically significant real-time improvements in forecast accuracy. The preferred mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) model reduces the mean-squared prediction error by as much as 16 percent compared with the no-change forecast and has statistically significant directional accuracy as high as 80 percent. This MIDAS forecast also is more accurate than a mixed-frequency real-time vector autoregressive forecast, but not systematically more accurate than the corresponding forecast based on monthly inventories. We conclude that typically not much is lost by ignoring high-frequency financial data in forecasting the monthly real price of oil. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods, International topics |
| JEL: | C53 G14 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-11&r=ene |
| By: | Miguel Rodríguez; Yolanda Pena-Boquete |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to provide new insights to make clear cut on the ambiguous evidence in favour of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. We contribute with an original explanation to dismiss the EKC based on relative energy prices. For the first time in the empirical literature, the econometric analysis includes the prices for coal, oil products and natural gas. We may conclude that there is evidence for a decoupling process between GDP and CO2 but without reaching any turning point on that relationship. Accordingly, the presence of relative energy price changes in the econometric specification confirms a monotonic and positive relationship between CO2 and GDP. Otherwise, we will eventually end up with distorted empirical evidence for EKC in our database, as long as we neglect energy substitution effects from price changes. The policy implications are straightforward: any international climate change agreement that eventually includes restrictions on developing countries might abate their legitimate ambitions for further economic development |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vig:wpaper:1401&r=ene |
| By: | Bjart Holtsmark (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Traditionally, wood fuels, like other bioenergy sources, have been considered carbon neutral because the amount of CO2 released can be offset by CO2 sequestration due to the regrowth of the biomass. Thus, until recently, most studies assigned a global warming potential (GWP) of zero to CO2 generated by the combustion of biomass (biogenic CO2). Moreover, emissions of biogenic CO2 are usually not included in carbon tax and emissions trading schemes. However, there is now increasing awareness of the inadequacy of this way of treating bioenergy, especially bioenergy from boreal forests. Holtsmark (2014) recently quantified the GWP of biogenic CO2 from slow-growing forests (GWPbio), finding it to be significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO2 when a 100-year time horizon was applied. Hence, the climate impact seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow-growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100-year timeframe. The present study extends the analysis of Holtsmark (2014) in three ways. First, it includes the cooling effects of increased surface reflectivity after harvest (albedo). Second, it includes a comparison with the potential warming impact of fossil fuels, taking the CO2 emissions per unit of energy produced into account. Third, the study links the literature estimating GWPbio and the literature dealing with the carbon debt, and model simulations estimating the payback time of the carbon debt are presented. The conclusion is that, also after these extensions of the analysis, bioenergy from slow-growing forests usually has a larger climate impact in a 100-year timeframe than fossil oil and gas. Whether bioenergy performs better or worse than coal depends on a number of conditions. |
| Keywords: | Bioenergy; Boreal forests; Climate change; Carbon; Albedo; Fossil fuels |
| JEL: | Q23 Q32 Q42 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:778&r=ene |
| By: | Parlow, Anton; von Hauff, Michael |
| Abstract: | We model pollution as an input in the production process and test the long-run relationship between pollution and growth at the industry level. Most empirical studies, especially based on the environmental Kuznets curve, use highly aggregated data. Arguably, the results found may not be generalized for all industries in a given country. Using CO-2 emissions and GDP data for 47 industries observed over the period 1995-2010, we find a long-run relationship between pollution and growth only for a few German industries, e.g. the energy-generating-, the aviation- and agricultural industry. For these industries CO-2 emissions have a negative effect on growth, e.g. through environmental taxes and pollution allowances. |
| Keywords: | Growth, GDP, CO2 Emissions, Pollution, Bounds-testing |
| JEL: | Q0 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2014–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55716&r=ene |
| By: | He, Haoran; Chen, Yefeng; Last Name, First Name |
| Abstract: | One method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to subsidize emissions-reducing activities. The question is how to allocate such subsidies. Allocation through auctions is an emerging mechanism. In a controlled experimental market setting, we compare the effects of a variety of auction mechanisms for allocating subsidies for carbon emissions reduction in China. Besides the conventional auction mechanisms, we place particular focus on testing the actual performance of the auction mechanism proposed by Erik Maskin (2011). We find that, while the Maskin auction mechanism spends the most from a fixed subsidy budget and leads to the largest emissions reduction, its per-unit emissions reduction cost is higher than that of discriminatory and uniform-price auction mechanisms. Both the Maskin and uniform-price auctions outperform discriminatory auctions in price discovery. Furthermore, from the government’s perspective, the Maskin auctions exhibit the strongest improvement tendency with repeated auctions. |
| Keywords: | auctions, subsidy allocation, carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, emissions reduction |
| JEL: | C91 C93 D64 |
| Date: | 2014–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-06-efd&r=ene |
| By: | Katarzyna Maciejowska |
| Abstract: | In the paper, Structural Vector Autoregressive models (SVAR) are used to identify fundamental and speculative shocks, in the UK electricity market. The structural shocks are identified via short run restrictions, which are imposed on the matrix of instantaneous effects. In the research, two main types of shocks are considered: fundamental shocks, which result from unexpected changes of demand, supply and generation costs and speculative shocks, which are associated solely with electricity prices. The results indicate that speculative shocks play an important role in the price setting process. Although they account for a significant part (from 30% to 95%) of the price volatility, I do not find evidence that the influence differs between peak and off-peak hours. When fundamental shocks are considered, some dependence between their effects on electricity prices and periods of the day is confirmed. For example, the impact of wind supply shocks on electricity prices is significantly stronger during the peak hours than during the off-peak hours. Moreover, they become a major source of electricity price volatility during the peak hours. Finally, it is confirmed that shocks associated with generation costs (prices of fuels) don’t have any instantaneous effect on the electricity prices. |
| Keywords: | Electricity spot prices; Structural analysis; Vector autoregression; |
| JEL: | C32 C51 E31 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2014–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1405&r=ene |
| By: | Antonia Díaz, (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28093 Madrid, Spain); Luis A. Puch (Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II (Economía Cuantitativa) (Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II (Quantitative Economics)), Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales (Faculty of Economics and Business), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Complutense University of Madrid)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a theory of investment and energy use to study the response of macroeconomic aggregates to energy price shocks. In our theory this response depends on the interaction between the energy efficiency built in capital goods (which is irreversible throughout their lifetime) and the growth rate of Investment Specific Technological Change (ISTC hereafter). We show that ISTC is a sort of energy-saving technical change and, therefore, a substitute of energy eficiency: it rises the productivity of capital without rising energy use, which increases effective energy eficiency (i.e., the amount of energy use required per unit of quality-adjusted capital). Hence, our theory can account for the fall of energy use per unit of output observed during the 1990s, a period in which energy prices fell below trend. By increasing investment in the years of high ISTC growth, the economy was increasing the average eficiency of the economy (the capital-energy ratio), shielding the economy against the impact of the 2003-08 price shock. |
| Keywords: | Energy use, vintage capital, energy price shocks, investment-specific technology shocks. |
| JEL: | E22 E23 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1335&r=ene |
| By: | Lance Taylor; Duncan Foley |
| Abstract: | A growth model incorporating dynamics of capital per capita, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and labor and energy productivity is described. In the “medium run” output and employment are determined by effective demand in contrast to most models of climate change. In a “long run” of several centuries the model converges to a stationary state with zero net emissions of CO2. Properties of dismal and non-dismal stationary states are explored, with a latter requiring a relatively high level of investment in mitigation of emissions. Without such investment under “business as usual” output dynamics are strongly cyclical in numerical simulations. There is strong output growth for about eight decades, then a climate crisis, and output crash. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:rnotes:38&r=ene |
| By: | Yusuf, Sulaimon Aremu |
| Abstract: | This study explored empirically the ‘Energy Sector is critical Sector to Nigeria Economic growth and Development: Perspective to Electricity Subsector, the study covers the period of 1981 to 2011. The study is borne out of the curiosity to determine the importance of electricity to the socio-economic development in Nigeria having relegated its role as “electricity is just an intermediate input”. The quantitative technique is used in analyzing times series data on per capita GDP of Nigeria, Gross Capital formation as proxy of Capital, Post Secondary School Enrolment as proxy of Labour and Electricity consumption. Restricted Error Correction model (VAR) is used with the aid of Econometrics View Package (E- view). The study reveals that the long run relationship that exists between real gross domestic product (PCGDP) a proxy of economic growth/development and electricity consumption is not significant, while, there is existence of short run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Further investigation using Granger causality analysis reveals that the two variables granger causes one another. Attempt was made to analyse the Electricity Transmission Mechanism with respect to different subsectors of the economy as it is translated to economic development in the long run, if the sector is properly harnessed. This then bring the study to the conclusion that electricity is not just an intermediate input or resources of satisfying domestic needs alone but it is ‘a critical sector to economic development most especially to developing country like Nigeria’. Therefore necessary recommendations were made as a way forward to achieve the impressive, sustainable growth and inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Electricity Transmission Mechanism , Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) |
| JEL: | Q4 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55689&r=ene |
| By: | Dreger, Christian; Rahmani, Teymur |
| Abstract: | In line with the neoclassical growth model a persistent stream of oil revenues might have a long lasting impact on GDP per capita in oil exporting countries through higher investment activities. This relationship is explored for Iran and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) using (panel) cointegration techniques. The existence of cointegration between oil revenues, GDP and investment can be confirmed for all countries. While the cointegration vector is found to be unique for Iran, long run equations for GDP and investment per capita are distinguished for the Gulf countries. Both variables respond to deviations from the steady state, while oil income can be treated as weakly exogenous. The long run oil elasticities for the Gulf states exceed their Iranian counterparts. In addition, investment in Iran does not react to oil revenues in the long run. Hence, oil revenues may have been spend less wisely in Iran over the past decades. -- |
| Keywords: | oil exporting countries,oil revenues,panel cointegration |
| JEL: | F43 O53 Q30 C33 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:349&r=ene |
| By: | Croonenbroeck, Carsten; Møller Dahl, Christian |
| Abstract: | We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important stylized facts or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium-term forecasts, which are especially necessary for practitioners in the forward electricity markets of many power trading places; for example, NASDAQ OMX Commodities (formerly Nord Pool OMX Commodities) in northern Europe. We show that our model produces turbine-specific forecasts that are significantly more accurate in comparison to established benchmark models and present an application that illustrates the financial impact of more accurate forecasts obtained using our methodology. -- |
| Keywords: | Censored Regression,Wind Energy,Forecasting |
| JEL: | C34 E27 Q47 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:351&r=ene |
| By: | Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a Ramsey model with two types of capital to analyze the optimal transition to clean capital when polluting investment is irreversible. The cost of climate mitigation decomposes as a technical cost of using clean instead of polluting capital and a transition cost from the irreversibility of pre-existing polluting capital. With a carbon price, the transition cost can be limited by underutilizing polluting capital, at the expense of a loss in the value of polluting assets (stranded assets) and a drop in income. In contrast, policy instruments that focus on redirecting investments -- such as feebates or environmental standards -- prevent underutilization of existing capital, avoid stranded assets, and reduce short-term losses; but they reduce emissions more slowly and increase the intertemporal cost of the transition. The paper investigates inter- and intra-generational distributional impacts and the political acceptability of climate change mitigation policy instruments. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2014–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6859&r=ene |
| By: | Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Rösemann, Claus; Dämmgen, Ulrich; Poddey, Eike; Freibauer, Annette; Wulf, Sebastian; Eurich-Menden, Brigitte; Döhler, Helmut; Schreiner, Carsten; Bauer, Beate; Osterburg, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | The report at hand (including a comprehensive annex of data) serves as additional document to the National Inventory Report (NIR) on the German green house gas emissions and the Informative Inventory Report (IIR) on the German emissions of air pollutants (especially ammonia). The report documents the calculation methods used in the German agricultural inventory model GAS-EM as well as input data, emission results and uncertainties of the emission reporting submission 2014 for the years 1990 - 2012. In this context the sector Agriculture comprises the emissions from animal husbandry and the use of agricultural soils. As required by the guidelines, emissions from activities preceding agriculture, from the use of energy and from land use change are reported elsewhere in the national inventories. The calculation methods are based in principle on international guidelines for emission reporting and have been continuingly improved during the past years. This concerns especially the calculation of energy requirements, feeding and the N balance of the most important animal categories. In addition, technical mitigation measures such as air scrubbing and digestion of slurry have been taken into account. [...] -- Der vorliegende Berichtsband einschließlich des umfangreichen Datenanhangs dient als Begleitdokument zum National Inventory Report (NIR) über die deutschen Treibhausgas-Emissionen und zum Informative Inventory Report (IIR), über die deutschen Schadstoffemissionen (insbesondere Ammoniak). Er dokumentiert die im deutschen landwirtschaftlichem Inventarmodell GASEM integrierten Berechnungsverfahren sowie die Eingangsdaten, Emissionsergebnisse und Unsicherheiten der Berichterstattung 2014 für die Jahre 1990 bis 2012. Der Bereich Landwirtschaft umfasst dabei die Emissionen aus der Tierhaltung und der Nutzung landwirtschaftlicher Böden. Emissionen aus dem Vorleistungsbereich, aus der Nutzung von Energie sowie Landnutzungsänderungen werden den Regelwerken entsprechend an anderer Stelle in den nationalen Inventaren berichtet. Die Berechnungsverfahren beruhen in erster Linie auf internationalen Regelwerken zur Emissionsberichterstattung und wurden in den vergangenen Jahren beständig weiterentwickelt. Dies betrifft im Wesentlichen die Berechnung des Energiebedarfs, der Fütterung und der tierischen N-Bilanz bei den wichtigen Tierkategorien. Zusätzlich wurden technische Minderungsmaßnahmen wie Abluftreinigung und Güllevergärung berücksichtigt. [...] |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:17&r=ene |
| By: | Lidia Andres Delgado (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Emilio Padilla Rosa (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the factors that have influenced the energy intensity of the Spanish road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles over the period 1996–2012. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the factors behind the energy intensity change of road freight and also to inform the design of measures to improve energy efficiency in road freight transport. The paper uses both annual single-period and chained multi-period multiplicative LMDI-II decomposition analysis. The results suggest that the decrease in the energy intensity of Spanish road freight in the period is explained by the change in the real energy intensity index (lower energy consumption per tonne-kilometre transported), which is partially offset by the behaviour of the structural index (greater share in freight transport of those commodities the transportation of which is more energy intensive). The change in energy intensity is analysed in more depth by quantifying the contribution of each commodity through the attribution of changes in Divisia indices. |
| Keywords: | energy intensity, road freight transport, LMDI, Divisia index decomposition |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1401&r=ene |
| By: | Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska; Katarzyna Maciejowska; Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | Using an agent-based modeling approach we show how personal attributes, like conformity or indifference, impact opinions of individual electricity consumers regarding innovative dynamic tariff programs. We also examine the influence of advertising, discomfort of usage and the expectations of financial savings on opinion dynamics. Our main finding is that currently the adoption, understood as a positive opinion or attitude toward the innovation, of dynamic electricity tariffs is virtually impossible due to the high level of indifference in today’s societies. However, if in the future the indifference level is reduced, e.g., through educational programs that would make the customers more engaged in the topic, factors like tariff pricing schemes and intensity of advertising will became the focal point. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic pricing; Demand response; Opinion formation; Agent-based model |
| JEL: | C63 O33 Q48 Q55 |
| Date: | 2014–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1406&r=ene |
| By: | Plötz, Patrick; Gnann, Till; Wietschel, Martin |
| Abstract: | The future market diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is of great importance for transport related green house gas emissions and energy demand. But most studies on the market diffusion of EVs focus on average driving patters and neglect the great variations in daily driving of individuals present in real-world driving data. Yet these variations are important for EVs since range limitations and the electric driving share of plug-in hybrids strongly impact the economic evaluation and consumer acceptance. Additionally, studies often focus on private cars only and neglect that commercial buyers account for relevant market shares in vehicle sales. Here, we propose a reliable, user specific model for the market diffusion of EVs and evaluation of EV market diffusion policies based on real world driving data. The data and model proposed include both private and commercial users in Germany and allow the calculation of realistic electric driving shares for all usage patterns. The proposed model explicitly includes user heterogeneity in driving behaviour, different user groups, psychological aspects and the effect of charge-at-home options. Our results show that the proposed model reproduces group specific market shares, gives confidence bands of market shares and reliably simulates individual electric driving shares. -- |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s42014&r=ene |
| By: | Lauro Carnicelli; Fernando Antonio Slaibe Postali |
| Abstract: | With the pre-salt discoveries, the discussions about the impact of oil windfalls – royalties and special participation – on Brazilian localities have intensified. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the issue, using a methodology that allows the building of a counterfactual for municipalities treated with oil resources. The aim is to investigate whether these transfers reduce the own tax effort of cities covered by such revenues. For this, we apply the doubly robust method to a panel of municipalities observed from 2000 to 2009. The method consists of two stages. Firstly, it estimates the likelihood of receiving oil revenues conditioned to observable variables; in the second stage, a fixed-effects model is estimated with data belonging to a common support constructed through the estimated propensity scores in the first stage. The results show that there is a negative effect of oil royalties on the fiscal effort of the cities benefited. However, this result does not occur when one computes the average effect on all cities. |
| Keywords: | Propensity score; doubly robust; oil royalties; fiscal effort; panel. |
| JEL: | H77 C21 |
| Date: | 2014–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2014wpecon3&r=ene |
| By: | Ai Han; Yanan He; Yongmiao Hong; Shouyang Wang |
| Abstract: | We propose two parsimonious autoregressive conditional interval-valued (ACI) models to forecast crude oil prices. The ACI models are a new class of time series models proposed by Han et al. (2009). They can characterize the dynamics of economic variables in both level and range of variation in a unified framework and hence facilitate informative economic analysis. A minimum DK-distance estimation method can also simultaneously utilize rich information of level and range contained in interval-valued observations, thus enhancing parameter estimation efficiency and model forecasting ability. Compared to other existing methods, the ACI models deliver significantly better out-ofsample forecasts, not only for interval-valued prices but also for point-valued highs, lows, and ranges. In particular, we find that the oil price range information is more valuable than the oil price level information in forecasting crude oil prices, which is consistent with observed facts of price movements in crude oil markets. We also find that speculation has predictive power for oil prices in our interval framework.. |
| Keywords: | Interval-valued data, crude oil price, ACI model, minimum DK-distance estimation, range |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002040&r=ene |
| By: | Yanan He; Jing Zhao |
| Abstract: | This paper uses copula approach to investigate the extreme dependence between crude oil and stock sectors in China. Empirical results show that oil-stock linkages have been changed by the occurrence of the recent financial crisis. Before the financial crisis, only two stock sectors have weakly negative tail dependence, while in the post-crisis period much more sectors become positively dependent with oil at extreme levels. Meanwhile, heterogeneity of sector dependence with crude oil is identified. The sector of Basic materials has the largest tail dependence (94.5%) with crude oil prices, which is followed by Financials and Construction & Materials. Asymmetric tail dependence is found in the Basic materials-crude oil pair, indicating that two returns exhibit greater correlation during market crashing than booming. Empirical findings in this paper have potentially important implications for financial market participants and policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Stock sector; Crude oil; Tail dependence; Copula |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002210&r=ene |
| By: | John Whalley; Yufei Yuan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the medium to long-term implications of global warming for the evolution of global financial structures. Stern (2007) and other related scientific literature reports that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities will very possibly lead to global temperature increase of 1-5 degrees C by 2050. This will cause a dramatic increase in global risks to human life. The response to this will be the seeking-out of financial innovation by major forms, primarily in the area of insurance, but also in the diversification of asset holdings. We suggest in this paper that, with modest climate changes of 1-2 degrees C, the global insurance market will expand dramatically. However, under more extreme climate change scenarios, the entire global financial structure will undergo major changes, with a re-focusing of major financial activity away from intermediation between borrowers and lenders and the facilitation of the accumulation of assets, and towards a focus on insurance arrangements and the diversification of risks associated with climate change. |
| JEL: | G21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002012&r=ene |
| By: | Juan Antonio Duro (Departament d’Economia and CREIP, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Reus. Spain.); Jordi Teixidó-Figueras (Departament d’Economia and CREIP, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Reus. Spain.); Emilio Padilla Rosa (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona.) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the possibilities provided by the regression-based inequality decomposition (Fields, 2003) to explore the contribution of different explanatory factors to international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita. In contrast to previous emissions inequality decompositions, which were based on identity relationships (Duro and Padilla, 2006), this methodology does not impose any a priori specific relationship. Thus, it allows an assessment of the contribution to inequality of different relevant variables. In short, the paper appraises the relative contributions of affluence, sectoral composition, demographic factors and climate. The analysis is applied to selected years of the period 1993–2007. The results show the important (though decreasing) share of the contribution of demographic factors, as well as a significant contribution of affluence and sectoral composition. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, international emissions inequality, regression-based decomposition |
| JEL: | C19 D39 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1402&r=ene |
| By: | Chialin Chen; Yu Ren |
| Abstract: | Panel data analysis is used within a fixed effect model to examine the relationship between vehicle safety ratings and fuel efficiency of �45 new vehicle models sold in the between 2002 and 2007. While conventional wisdom and most early literature suggest that lighter, more fuel efficient vehicles are less safe to their occupants, the tests show a positive relationship between vehicle safety ratings and fuel efficiencies not only within and across most size classes but also for vehicles produced by both the US and Asian automakers.We also explore the design initiatives by manufacturers to compensate for the reductions in weight/size of fuel-efficient vehicles. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle safety, Fuel economy, Automobile design |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:journl:002110&r=ene |
| By: | Lubnau, Thorben |
| Abstract: | This article explores whether common technical trading strategies used in equity markets can be employed profitably in the markets for WTI and Brent crude oil. The strategies tested are Bollinger Bands, based on a mean-reverting hedge portfolio of WTI and Brent. The trading systems are tested with historical data from 1992 to 2013, representing 22 years of data and for various specifications. The hedge ratio for the crude oil portfolio is derived by using the Johansen procedure and a dynamic linear model with Kalman filtering. The significance of the results is evaluated with a bootstrap test in which randomly generated orders are employed. Results show that some setups of the system are able to be profitable over every five-year period tested. Furthermore they generate profits and Sharpe ratios that are significantly higher than those of randomly generated orders of approximately the same holding time. The best results with some Sharpe ratios in excess of three, are obtained when a dynamic linear model with Kalman filtering and maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown variance of the state equation is employed to constantly update the hedge ratio of the portfolio. The results indicate that the crude oil market may not be weak-form efficient. -- |
| Keywords: | Oil Prices,Commodities,Technical trading,Market efficiency,Future returns,Kalman Filtering |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:353&r=ene |
| By: | Sung Y. Park; Guochang Zhao |
| Abstract: | In this paper the U.S. gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time-varying cointegrating regression. We find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987. After a relatively small-scaled "increase-decrease" cycle from 1987 to 2000, the price elasticity rose again after 2000. The time-varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity. The result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long-run equilibrium is corrected quickly, and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax. |
| Keywords: | Gasoline demand; Time-varying coefficient; Cointegration; Canonical coin-tegration regression; Error-correction model; deadweight loss. |
| JEL: | C51 Q41 H71 |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:journl:002107&r=ene |
| By: | V. Brian Viard; Shihe Fu |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the environmental and economic effects of Beijing’s driving restrictions. Based on daily data from multiple monitoring stations, air pollution falls 19% during every-other-day and 8% during one-day-per-week restrictions. Based on hourly viewership data, the number of television viewers during the restrictions increases 1.7 to 2.3% for workers with discretionary work time but is unaffected for workers without, consistent with the restrictions’ higher per-day commute costs reducing daily labor. Causal effects are identified from both time-series and spatial variation in air quality and intra-day variation in viewership. We provide possible reasons for the policy’s success, including evidence of high compliance based on parking garage entrance records. Our results contrast with previous findings of no pollution reductions from driving restrictions and provide new evidence on commute costs and labor supply |
| Keywords: | Driving restrictions; externalities; environmental economics; pollution |
| JEL: | H23 D62 L51 J22 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002039&r=ene |
| By: | Grzegorz Orynczak; Marcin Jakubek; Karol Wawrzyniak; Michal Klos |
| Abstract: | Adopting a zonal structure of electricity market requires specification of zones' borders. In this paper we use social welfare as the measure to assess quality of various zonal divisions. The social welfare is calculated by Market Coupling algorithm. The analyzed divisions are found by the usage of extended Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) methodology presented in paper [1], which takes into account variable weather conditions. The offered method of assessment of a proposed division of market into zones is however not limited to LMP approach but can evaluate the social welfare of divisions obtained by any methodology. |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1405.0878&r=ene |
| By: | Cooke, Roger M. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep uncertainty is frequently invoked to disable uncertainty quantification, with attendant problems in communicating and propagating uncertainty through chains of reasoning. These issues, together with science-based uncertainty quantification, are illustrated with recent applications to ice sheet dynamics. The issues of performance assessment and validation are addressed. |
| Keywords: | deep uncertainty, Knightian uncertainty, risk, expert judgment, climate change |
| Date: | 2014–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-11&r=ene |
| By: | Rocío Urbanos |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:41&r=ene |
| By: | Reza Farrahi Moghaddam; Fereydoun Farrahi Moghaddam; Mohamed Cheriet |
| Abstract: | A new Input-Output model, called the Multi-Entity Input-Output (MEIO) model, is introduced to estimate the responsibility of entities of an ecosystem on the footprint of each other. It assumed that the ecosystem is comprised of end users, service providers, and utilities. The proposed MEIO modeling approach can be seen as a realization of the Everybody-in-the-Loop (EitL) framework, which promotes a sustainable future using behaviors and actions that are aware of their ubiquitous eco-socio-environment impacts. In this vision, the behavioral changes could be initiated by providing all actors with their footprint statement, which would be estimated using the MEIO models. First, a naive MEIO model is proposed in the form of a graph of actions and responsibility by considering interactions and goods transfers among the entities and actors along four channels. Then, the unnormalized responsibility and also the final responsibility among the actors are introduced, and then are used to re-allocate immediate footprint of actors among themselves. The footprint in the current model is limited to three major impacts: Water, Energy, and GHG emissions. The naive model is then generalized to Provider-perspective (P-perspective) and End User-perspective (E-perspective) MEIO models in order to make it more suitable to cases where a large number of end users are served by a provider. The E-perspective modeling approach particularly allows estimating the footprint associated to a specific end user. In two use cases from the auto and Telco industries, it has been observed that the proposed MEIO models are practical and dependable in allocating footprint to the provider and also to the end user, while i) avoiding footprint leakage to the end users and ii) handling the large numbers end users. In addition, it will be shown that the MEIO models could be sued to integrate Scope-3 and LCA approaches. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1404.6227&r=ene |
| By: | Tang, Liwei; Hu, Zongyi; Zhang, Yongjun |
| Abstract: | Combining the characteristics of BM direction distance function, non- radial DEA model and Luenberger productivity indicators, we develop a non-radial BML-DEA model to measure Environmental Performance. And by using the panel data of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2011 in China, we measure and analysis the regional industrial eco-efficiency. The results show that the overall growth of industrial Environmental Performance of the region comes mainly from technological progress rather than efficiency improvements, the highest average annual growth rate of areas are Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Guangdong. The effect from three pollutants on industrial Environmental Performance by descending is SO2, CO2 and Smoker, and the contribution of the three pollutants deal more balanced. There are significant differences among industrial Environmental Performance and its decomposition ingredients in different regions. The growth rate of industrial Environmental Performance in east is significantly higher than other regions, but the growth rate of efficiency is not superior to the center and west, and even slightly lower than the center. Therefore, regions need to enhance the efficiency in using the resources. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Performance; infeasible solution; slacks; non- radial BML-DEA model |
| JEL: | C61 O44 Q01 Q5 |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55380&r=ene |
| By: | Sandrine SPAETER; Julien JACOB |
| Abstract: | We consider a firm under strict liability that must choose between two risky technologies, one being safer but costlier than the other one. The total potential level of damage increases with the level of activity. We show that, under limited liability, technological change is welfare improving and leads to full risk internalization when the firms are sufficiently capitalized. Nevertheless, the percentage of firms adopting the safer technology and full risk internalization is higher under unlimited liability than under limited liability. We show how an adequate tax policy increases this percentage. We also determine the characteristics of a second-best tax policy. |
| Keywords: | Technological risk, limited liability, incentives, technical choice, taxes. |
| JEL: | D81 H23 K39 Q55 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2014-10&r=ene |
| By: | Rui Fan; Ying Fang; Sung Y. Park |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the resource curse phenomenon in China. The “resource curse†is an important claim that the resource-abundant economies grow at a slower pace than the resource-scarce economies do. There are many recent studies that analyze the resource curse phenomenon theoretically and empirically. However, few papers analyze which socio-economic variables determine the resource curse. This paper is di erent from the previous studies in three aspects: (i) The city-level data is used; (ii) Using the functional coecient regression model we can take care of city-specific heterogeneity and, at the same time, analyze the transmission mechanism of the curse of recourses; (iii)We construct a variable to estimate the e ect of the di usion processes of the natural resources among cities in the same province. Our empirical results show that there is no evidence to support the statement of resource curse in China. On the other hand, the level of natural resources in a city imposes a significant positive di usion e ect on the economic growth of neighbor city within the same province. |
| Keywords: | Resource curse; Di usion e ects; Transmission channels; Functional coecient Model; |
| JEL: | O13 O18 |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002026&r=ene |
| By: | Daniel, M.; Sirieix, L. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the sustainable practices adopted by private individuals. Ten households observation, twenty-two face to-face interviews and three hundreds questionnaires highlight a number of daily practices combining sustainability-oriented and individualistic motivations. Three spheres of sustainable practices (purchases, habits and share/transmission) three patterns (occasional adoption, integration and compensation) and different consumer clusters appear. Recommendations for sustainable marketing are provided. ....French Abstract : Cet article étudie les pratiques durables adoptées quotidiennement par les individus. L'observation de 10 ménages, 22 interviews en face-à-face et 300 questionnaires permettent de comprendre la diversité des pratiques durables des individus oscillant entre motivations tournées vers le développement durable et tournées vers des intérêts plus personnels. Trois sphères de pratiques durables (achats, usages et transmission), trois régimes de pratiques (adoption ponctuelle, intégration et compensation) ainsi que différentes classes d'individus identifiées selon leurs pratiques motivées apparaissent. Cet article se termine par des recommandations pour le marketing durable. |
| Keywords: | SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES; SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION; PRACTICE THEORY; PRATIQUES DURABLES; CONSOMMATION DURABLE; THEORIE DES PRATIQUES |
| JEL: | D1 M31 Q01 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umr:wpaper:201402&r=ene |
| By: | Ying Fang; Li Qi; Yang Zhao |
| Abstract: | Whether natural resources boost or deter economic development remains an open question in the literature. Papyrakis and Gerlagh (2007) found a significant negative association between economic growth and resource abundance at a U.S.-state level. They demonstrated that resource abundance crowds out human capital accumulation and R&D investment. This paper performs an empirical analysis on data from 95 cities in China from 1997 to 2005 and finds no obvious evidence of a significant relationship between natural resources and economic development at the city level. By controlling province dummy variables, however, it becomes clear that resource abundance in one city imposes a significant positive “spill-over†effect on the other cities within the same province. Moreover, an analysis on transmission channels of such spill-over effects reveals that resource abundance boosts the manufacturing industry in the other cities, which is consistent with the “big push†theory. |
| Keywords: | Curse of resources; Spill-over effects; Big push |
| JEL: | O13 O18 |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002007&r=ene |