nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2014‒04‒18
fifty-six papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Objective versus subjective assessments: The IPCC treatment of the total economic impact of climate change By Richard Tol
  2. Does a Renewable Fuel Standard for Biofuels Reduce Climate Costs? By Mads Greaker; Michael Hoel; Knut Einar Rosendahl
  3. European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 – A Sectoral Multi-model Decomposition By Hannah Förster; Katja Schumacher; Enrica De Cian; Michael Hübler; Ilkka Keppo; Silvana Mima; Ronald D. Sands
  4. Transforming Power: social science and the politics of energy choices By Andy Stirling
  5. Impact of Operational Wind Generation in the Australian National Electricity Market over 2007-2012. By Phil Wild; William Paul Bell; John Foster
  6. Standing in the way by standing in the middle: The case of state-owned natural gas intermediaries in Bulgaria By Ralitsa Petrova Hiteva; Tomas Maltby
  7. Implications of integrating electricity supply dynamics into life cycle assessment: a case study of renewable distributed generation By Amor, Mourad Ben; Gaudreault, Caroline; Pineau, Pierre-Olivier; Samson, Réjean
  8. Working Paper 03-14 - Belgische black-outs berekend - Een kwantitatieve evaluatie van stroompannes in België By Danielle Devogelaer
  9. Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and International Oil Prices By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Mozhgan Raeisian Parvari
  10. Global Energy Security under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities By Aleh Cherp; Jessica Jewell; Vadim Vinichenko; Nico Bauer; Enrica De Cian
  11. The Effect of African Growth on Future Global Energy, Emissions, and Regional Development By Katherine Calvin; Shonali Pachauri; Enrica De Cian; Ioanna Mouratiadou
  12. Working Paper 04-13 - Analyse de l’adéquation de la production électrique en Belgique à l’horizon 2030 - Analyse basée sur les scénarios du projet d’EPE2 By Dominique Gusbin
  13. Estimating a consumer demand system of energy, mobility and leisure: A microdata approach for Germany By Beznoska, Martin
  14. Energy market liberalization and renewable energy policies in OECD countries By Francesco Vona
  15. Curbing Emissions through a Carbon Liabilities Market: A note from a climate skeptic’s perspective By Etienne Billette de Villemeur; Justin Leroux
  16. European-Led Climate Policy Versus Global Mitigation Action. Implications on Trade, Technology, and Energy By Enrica De Cian; Ilkka Keppo; Johannes Bollen; Samuel Carrara; Hannah Förster; Michael Hübler; Amit Kanudia; Sergey Paltsev; Ronald Sands; Katja Schumacher
  17. Environmental Kuznets Curve in Thailand: Cointegration and Causality Analysis By Mohamed Arouri; Muhammad Shahbaz; Rattapon Onchang; Faridul Islam; Frédéric Teulon
  18. German Energy Market Fallout from the Japanese Earthquake By Grossi, Luigi; Waterson, Michael
  19. Economic growth, combustible renewables and waste consumption and emissions in North Africa By Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim
  20. Is Monthly US Natural Gas Consumption Stationary? New Evidence from a GARCH Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks By Vinod Mishra; Russell Smyth
  21. The oil position in the Tunisian economy: Adaptation of computable general equilibrium model By Necibi, Thameur
  22. On the properties of nodal price response matrix in electricity markets By Vadim Borokhov
  23. Iran after the (Potential) Nuclear Deal: What’s Next for the Country’s Natural Gas Market? By Simone Tagliapietra,
  24. The Nexus between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights from Meta Analysis By Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Refk SELMI; Ilhan OZTURK
  25. The Electricity Consumption in a Rentier State: Do Institutions Matter? By Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Refk SELMI; Muhammad SHAHBAZ
  26. Working Paper 12-13 - Is offshoring driven by air emissions? Testing the pollution haven effect for imports of intermediates By Bernhard Klaus Michel
  27. EU-Russia energy relations: What chance for solutions?: A focus on the natural gas sector By Dimo Böhme
  28. Minimising costs and variability of electricity generation by means of optimal electricity interconnection utilisation By Muireann Á. Lynch; Richard Tol; Mark J. O’Malley
  29. Taxing Carbon under Market Incompleteness By Valentina Bosetti; Marco Maffezzoli
  30. Do electricity supply constraints matter for comparative advantage? : a neoclassical approach By Sato, Hitoshi
  31. Information Disclosure through Agents: Evidence from a Field Experiment By Hunt Allcott; Richard Sweeney
  32. General Equilibrium Effects of Green Technological Progress By Ngo Van Long; Frank Staehler
  33. Inner Conflict between Nuclear Power Generation and Electricity Rates: A Japanese Case Study By Takanori Ida; Kosuke Takemura; Masayuki Sato
  34. A Dynamical Model of the Industrial Economy of the Humber Region By Christopher J. K. Knight; Alexandra S. Penn; Rebecca B. Hoyle
  35. Towards a clean vehicle fleet: from households’ valuation of fuel efficiency to policy implications By Bénédicte Meurisse; Maxime Le Roy
  36. The Aggregation Dilemma By Ingmar Schumacher
  37. Working Paper 07-13 - Walking the green mile in Employment - Employment projections for a green future By Danielle Devogelaer
  38. Urbanization in India: Revisiting the energy aspect and policy issues By Dasgupta, Manjira; Dasgupta, Sambuddha N.
  39. On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVPVAR models with stochastic volatility By Ikram Jebabli; Mohamed Arouri; Frédéric Teulon
  41. Working Paper 14-13 - TransAccount - Un modèle comptable pour des scénarios de développement durable By Alain Henry; Dimi Jottier
  42. Oil windfalls and local fiscal effort: a propensity score analysis By Fernando Antonio Slaibe Postali; Lauro Carnicelli
  43. The impact of fundamental and financial traders on the term structure of oil By Heidorn, Thomas; Mokinski, Frieder; Rühl, Christoph; Schmaltz, Christian
  44. La politique climatique change enfin de paradigme By Michel Damian
  45. The "Second Dividend" and the Demographic Structure By Frédéric Gonand; Pierre-André Jouvet
  46. Money to fill the gap? Local financial development and energy intensity in Europe and Central Asia By Bagayev, Igor; Najman, Boris
  47. Working Paper 11-13 - De energie-intensiteit van de componenten van de finale vraag 1995-2005 - Een input-output analyse in constante prijzen By Luc Avonds
  48. Optimal Environmental Tax-Subsidy Regime in the Presence of Increasing Returns By Wenli Cheng; Dingsheng Zhang; CEMA
  49. The Demand for Gasoline: Evidence from Household Survey Data By Dongfeng Chang; Apostolos Serletis
  50. Free-Riding in Tax Credits For Home Insulation in France: An Econometric Assessment Using Panel Data By Marie-Laure Nauleau
  51. Optimal Climate Policy for a Pessimistic Social Planner By Edilio Valentini; Paolo Vitale
  52. Regulating gasoline retail markets: The case of Germany By Wittmann, Nadine
  53. A Socio-Economic Cost Assessment Regarding Damages to Underground Infrastructures (EXECUTIVE SUMMARY) By Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin; Ingrid Peignier; Vincent Mouchikhine; Mohamed Mahfouf
  54. Co-evolution of Technology and Institutions: Government Regulation and Technological Creativity in the Swedish Moped History 1952–70 By Blomkvist, Pär; Emanuel, Martin
  55. The motorcycle Kuznets curve By Shuhei Nishitateno; Paul J. Burke
  56. Models-as-Usual for Unusual Risks? On the Value of Catastrophic Climate Change By Antoine Bommier; Bruno Lanz; Stéphane Zuber

  1. By: Richard Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom; Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Spatial Economic, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; CESifo, Munich, Germany)
    Abstract: I apply restricted Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression to derive the total economic impact as a function of climate change. I restrict the sample to information known at the time of Second, Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There has been no statistically significant change in the estimates over time. Nonetheless, subsequent assessment reports convey different messages in their Technical Summaries, with even greater deviations in the Summaries for Policy Makers. The IPCC should rely more strongly on objective methods.
    Keywords: IPCC, economic impact of climate change, kernel regression
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2014–04
  2. By: Mads Greaker (Statistics Norway); Michael Hoel (University of Oslo); Knut Einar Rosendahl (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Recent literature on biofuels has questioned whether biofuels policies are likely to reduce the negative effects of climate change. In this paper we make two contributions to the literature. First, we study the market effects of a renewable fuel standard in a dynamic model taking into account that oil is a non-renewable resource. Second, we model emissions from land use change explicitly when we evaluate the climate effects of the renewable fuel standard. We find that global extraction of oil is postponed as a consequence of the renewable fuel standard. Thus, if emissions from biofuels are negligible, the standard will have beneficial climate effects. Furthermore, we find that the standard also tends to reduce total fuel (i.e., oil plus biofuels) consumption initially. Hence, even if emissions from biofuels are non-negligible, a renewable fuel standard may still reduce climate costs. In fact our simulations show that even for biofuels that are almost as emissions-intensive as oil, a renewable fuel standard has beneficial climate effects.
    Keywords: Blending Mandate, Renewable Fuel Standard, Biofuels, Climate Costs
    JEL: Q27 Q41 Q54
    Date: 2014–03
  3. By: Hannah Förster (Öko-Institut e.V., Germany); Katja Schumacher (Öko-Institut e.V., Germany); Enrica De Cian (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Italy and Centro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy); Michael Hübler (Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany); Ilkka Keppo (University College London, UCL Energy Institute, UK); Silvana Mima (PACTE-EDDEN-CNRS-UPMF, France); Ronald D. Sands (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, USA)
    Abstract: Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects: affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of economic production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long run. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.
    Keywords: Decomposition Analysis, Decarbonization, Model Intercomparison
    JEL: Q4 Q5 Q51
    Date: 2014–03
  4. By: Andy Stirling (SPRU, University of Sussex, UK)
    Keywords: power, social science, transformation, energy transitions, renewable energy, nuclear power, climate geoengineering, sustainability, reflexive governance, sociotechnical regimes, planetary boundaries
    Date: 2014–04
  5. By: Phil Wild (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); William Paul Bell (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); John Foster (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of wind generation in the states comprising the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The methodology utilize an agent based model, which contains many features salient to the NEM including intra-state and inter-state transmission branches, regional location of generators and load centres and accommodation of unit commitment features. The model uses a Direct Current Optimal Power Flow (DC OPF) algorithm to determine optimal dispatch of generation plant, power flows on transmission branches and wholesale prices. We present results of the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices, dispatch patterns, carbon emissions and transmission network adequacy within the NEM.
    Keywords: carbon emissions, electricity prices, agent-based model, DC OPF Algorithm, wind generation, Australian National Electricity Market.
    JEL: C61 C63 D24 L94
    Date: 2014–04
  6. By: Ralitsa Petrova Hiteva (SPRU, University of Sussex, UK); Tomas Maltby (Politics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK,)
    Keywords: Bulgarian energy policy, EU energy policy, Overgas, Bulgargaz, Bulgartransgaz, natural gas intermediaries, EU energy market liberalisation
    Date: 2014–04
  7. By: Amor, Mourad Ben; Gaudreault, Caroline; Pineau, Pierre-Olivier; Samson, Réjean
    Abstract: Electricity supply is frequently cited as a significant hot spot in life cycle assessment (LCA) results. Despite its importance, however, LCA research continues to overuse simplified methodologies regarding electricity supply modeling. This work aims to demonstrate the usefulness of electricity trade analysis (proposed model) for integrating the short-term dynamics of electricity supply and refining LCA results. Distributed generation using renewable energy is applied as a case study to demonstrate how electricity trade analysis provides more refined estimates when environmental impact abatements are assessed compared with the conventional (simplified) approaches in LCA. Grid-connected photovoltaic panel (3 kWp mono- and poly-crystalline) and micro-wind turbine (1, 10 and 30 kW) environmental impact abatements are investigated by determining the displaced marginal electricity production on an hourly basis. The results indicate that environmental impact abatements calculated using the developed short-term time horizon approach can be significantly different (up to 200% difference) from those obtained using a simplified approach. Recommendations are provided to LCA practitioners to address this issue of differing results.
    Keywords: Life cycle assessment; Short-term marginal technology; Electricity dynamics; Wind; Solar.
    JEL: Q42 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2014–03–29
  8. By: Danielle Devogelaer
    Abstract: Privatization, internal market, interconnections, greenhouse gas emission reductions, renewable energy targets… is it possible to reconcile these themes? And if so, will our lights stay on? This is a major concern of a number of players in the energy field, especially the Secretary of State for Energy since he is responsible for guaranteeing the security of supply. In times of increased electricity production by variable energy sources and of distorted investment signals, guaranteeing security of supply is not evident, since the absence of investments in sufficient reserve capacity and – worst case scenario – inadequacy of generation capacity may lead to soaring societal costs. This Working Paper focuses on the specific event that, in spite of all initiatives and mechanisms in place, things go wrong: a national black-out paralyzing the entire Belgian economy for 1 hour and its price tag are analysed.
    Keywords: Belgium, Supply security
    JEL: L94 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2014–03–10
  9. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg); Mozhgan Raeisian Parvari (University of Vienna)
    Abstract: One of the main elements of economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in Iranian energy related projects. Senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on international oil prices. We apply unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, using impulse response (IRF) and variance decomposition (VDA) tools with annual data from 1965 to 2012 to analyze the dynamic response of international oil prices to Iranian oil export sanction. Controlling for the supply of non-Iranian oil and the world GDP per capita, we show that international oil prices respond positively to negative changes of the Iranian oil expor, our proxy of Iran oil sanctions. However, the increasing response of oil prices to the Iranian oil sanction is only significant in the first year after negative shock in Iran oil exports. Beyond the first year following shock, we do not observe a statistically significant response of oil prices.
    Keywords: Oil Price, VAR Model, Sanction, Iran Handle: RePEc:mar:MAGKSE:201427
    JEL: E37 Q32 Q34 Q38 Q43
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Aleh Cherp (Central European University and Lund University); Jessica Jewell (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Central European University); Vadim Vinichenko (Central European University); Nico Bauer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)); Enrica De Cian (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC))
    Abstract: Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates the global energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.
    Keywords: Energy Security, Energy Scenarios, Long-Term Climate Policies, Fossil Resources Assumptions
    JEL: Q4 Q5 Q51
    Date: 2014–03
  11. By: Katherine Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/PNNL); Shonali Pachauri (Organization International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/IIASA); Enrica De Cian (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change/CMCC); Ioanna Mouratiadou (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research/PIK)
    Abstract: Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5% and 20% of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4% and 10% of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today.
    Keywords: African Growth, Global Energy, Emissions
    JEL: Q4 Q5 Q51
    Date: 2014–03
  12. By: Dominique Gusbin
    Abstract: The analysis presented in this Working Paper is based on the scenarios of the draft Prospective Study for Electricity (PSE2) elaborated by the Directorate General for Energy of the FPS Economy, S.M.E.s, Self-employed and Energy in collaboration with the Federal Planning Bureau. The question examined in this analysis is whether the total generation capacity calculated in the PSE2 is compatible with the results of an adequacy assessment following ENTSO-E's methodology (ENTSO-E is the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity).
    Keywords: Electricity demand, Adequacy, Long-term energy projections
    JEL: C6 Q4
    Date: 2013–09–02
  13. By: Beznoska, Martin
    Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the consumer demand of environmentally relevant goods for Germany, as well as their relationship to the demand for leisure. Higher prices for energy goods like gas, electricity or fuel oil due to higher indirect taxation amongst others may have serious welfare and distributional effects for households. Also, there is very little evidence of the labor market implications of environmental taxation, as there is e.g. no quantification of labor supply effects, respectively leisure demand effects for Germany. Using a demand system to estimate the price, cross-price and income effects of the goods mobility, electricity, heating and leisure from microdata, there will also be accounted for the extensive demand for leisure, which is the not negligible labor market participation. Additionally, the extensive and intensive leisure demand is combined to total leisure demand elasticities, which can then be used for welfare and behavior analyses. --
    Keywords: consumer demand system,almost ideal demand system,environmental taxation,demand for leisure
    JEL: D12 H31 Q48 R48
    Date: 2014
  14. By: Francesco Vona (OFCE SciencesPo)
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of energy liberalizations on policies that support renewable energy in a long panel of OECD countries. We estimate this effect accounting for the endogeneity of liberalization related to joint decisions within a country’s energy strategy. Using regulation in other industries as instruments, we find that energy liberalization increases the public support to renewable energy. The effect of liberalization is the second largest after the effect of per-capita income and is fully driven by reductions in entry barriers, while the effect of privatization is negative. Finally, our results are robust to dynamic specifications and various policy indicators.
    Keywords: Renewable energy policy, energy market liberalization, instrumental variables, applied political economy
    JEL: Q42 Q48 D72 O38
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Etienne Billette de Villemeur; Justin Leroux
    Abstract: We argue for the creation of a carbon liabilities market to address climate change. Each period, countries would be made liable for their share of responsibility in current climate damage. Because liabilities could be traded like financial debt, robustness to strategic manipulations and efficiency ensue. Moreover, this decentralizes the choice of the rate by which countries discount future benefits and damage. Rather than being based on an expected discounted sum of future marginal damage (as with a carbon tax or tradable emission permits) our proposal relies only on observed realized damage and on the well-documented emission history of countries.
    Keywords: Carbon Liabilities, Climate Policy, Market Instruments,
    JEL: Q54 H23
    Date: 2014–02–01
  16. By: Enrica De Cian (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Italy and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Italy); Ilkka Keppo (University College London, UCL Energy Institute, UK); Johannes Bollen (CPB, Den Haag, Netherlands); Samuel Carrara (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Italy and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Italy); Hannah Förster (Öko-Institut, Germany); Michael Hübler (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany); Amit Kanudia (KanORS-EMR, New Delhi, India); Sergey Paltsev (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, US); Ronald Sands (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, USA); Katja Schumacher (Öko-Institut, Germany)
    Abstract: This paper examines how changes in an international climate regime would affect the European decarbonization strategy and costs through the mechanisms of trade, technology, and innovation. We present the results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) model comparison study on European climate policy to 2050. Moving from a no-policy scenario to an existing-policies case reduces all energy imports, on average. Introducing a more stringent climate policy target for the EU only leads to slightly greater global emission reductions. Consumers and producers in Europe bear most of the additional burden and inevitably face some economic losses. More ambitious mitigation action outside Europe, especially when paired with a well-operating global carbon market, could reduce the burden for Europe significantly. Because of global learning, the costs of wind and especially solar-PV in Europe would decline below the levels observed in the existing-policy case and increased R&D spending outside the EU would leverage EU R&D investments as well.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Stabilization Policy, International Participation
    JEL: Q5 Q54
    Date: 2014–03
  17. By: Mohamed Arouri; Muhammad Shahbaz; Rattapon Onchang; Faridul Islam; Frédéric Teulon
    Abstract: The study is aim to explore the existence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in case of Thailand over the period of 1971-2010. The EKC relationship posits that as economy grows, measured by per capita income, at the initial stage energy pollutants increase; but starts falling after a certain threshold income has been achieved. The postulated relation produces an inverted U-curve and has been empirically verified for many nations. The paper implements the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration in the presence of structural break for a long run relationship among the series; and the error correction mechanism for the short run dynamics. The results confirm cointegration among economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, urbanization, and energy pollutants and vindicate the presence of an EKC for Thailand. Also, energy consumption and trade openness add to energy emissions while urbanization lowers it. This study provides new insights for policymakers looking for sustainable economic growth and clean environment through a comprehensive economic and environmental policy.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Environmental Kuznets Curve
    JEL: O13 Q25 Q53
    Date: 2014–04–10
  18. By: Grossi, Luigi (Verona University); Waterson, Michael (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: The German response to the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident was possibly the most significant change of policy towards nuclear power outside Japan, leading to a sudden and very significant shift in the underlying power generation structure in Germany. This provides a very useful natural experiment on the impact of changing proportions of conventional fuel inputs to power production, helping us to see how changed proportions in future as a result of policy moves in favour of renewables are likely to impact. We find through exploration of a conventional demand- supply framework that despite the swift, significant change, the main impact was a relatively modest increase in prices occasioned by a shift of the supply curve; there were no appreciable quantity effects on the market, such as power outages, despite some views that the impacts would be significant.
    Keywords: Atomausstieg; Demand-supply framework; German power market; nuclear power; renewables
    Date: 2013
  19. By: Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal relationship between economic growth, combustible renewables and waste consumption, and CO2 emissions for a balanced panel of five North Africa countries during the period 1971-2008. The panel cointegration test results indicate that, in the short-run, there is evidence of unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to real GDP, unidirectional causality from combustible renewables and waste consumption to real GDP without feedback, and unidirectional causality from combustible renewables and waste to CO2 emissions. However, there is evidence of no short-run causality between combustible renewables and waste consumption and CO2 emissions. In the long-run, we find that there is evidence of a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and combustible renewables and waste consumption real GDP. The results from panel FMOLS and DOLS estimates show that CO2 emissions is the most significant variable in explaining economic growth in the region which is followed by the consumption of combustible renewables and waste. In the long-run, increases in combustible renewables and waste consumption and emissions lead to increase economic growth. The finding of this paper is that North Africa region can use renewable energy as a substitutable energy to the fossil one and avoid the disaster on atmosphere and stimulate economic growth in the long-run.
    Keywords: Combustible renewables and waste consumption; panel cointegration; North Africa.
    JEL: C33 Q43
    Date: 2014–04–13
  20. By: Vinod Mishra; Russell Smyth
    Abstract: We apply a recently developed unit root test that simultaneously accounts for heteroskedasticity and structural breaks to United States monthly natural gas consumption. We find that United States monthly natural gas consumption is stationary. Our results illustrate the importance of accounting for heteroskedasticity when testing for a unit root in energy consumption with higher frequency data.
    Keywords: Natural gas, unit root, heteroskedasticity
    JEL: Q40 C22
    Date: 2014–04
  21. By: Necibi, Thameur
    Abstract: This article presents several preliminary results of the real prices application on the Tunisian economy through a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The objective is to assess the effects of the progressive dismantling policies of oil products subsidy on the economic growth, the sectoral dynamics and, to a lesser extent, on the household incomes. The simulations on the crude oil price and on the subsidies granted to oil products have redrew new structures of the prices and have modified their levels. The analysis of the impacts of this simulation studies the effects of these new prices data on the economic agents and on the economy in general.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models, Taxation, Subsidies, Revenue, Energy, Government Policy;
    JEL: C67 C68 H30 Q43
    Date: 2014–04–10
  22. By: Vadim Borokhov
    Abstract: We establish sufficient conditions for nodal price response matrix in electric power system to be symmetric and negative semi-definite. The results are applicable for electricity markets with nonlinear and intertemporal constraints.
    Date: 2014–04
  23. By: Simone Tagliapietra, (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: Iran is the perennial “elephant in the room” of international gas trade. The country could well become, one day, a major game changer of international gas markets but today its potential still remains fundamentally untapped due to a number of geopolitical and commercial reasons. Iran owns the first largest proven gas reserves in the world, but since 1997 it is basically a net-importer of gas. This paradoxical situation is due to a number of internal and external factors, which will be widely discussed in the paper. However, the main cause of the current under-exploitation of Iran’s gas resources is certainly linked to the international isolation of the country due to the well-known international dispute over its nuclear program. For this reason, if the positive outcome of the recent nuclear talks turn into a complete nuclear deal, great opportunities will likely open up in Iran also with regard to the gas market. The aim of this paper is to analyze the country’s gas outlook in the aftermath of a potential nuclear deal, looking at the potential production trends, at the potential export options, but also at the political and commercial barriers that such a development will likely have to face. In fact, a full resolution of the nuclear issue will unlikely automatically change the Iranian gas market in the short term, as a number of commercial issues will continue to remain on the table. In other words, the “elephant” will need a bit of time to move. However, it is sure that its movement will ultimately have a profound and long-lasting impact on international gas markets.
    Keywords: Iran Gas Market, International Gas Markets, World Energy Outlook, Nuclear Talks
    JEL: Q40 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2014–03
  24. By: Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Refk SELMI; Ilhan OZTURK
    Abstract: The Nexus between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights from Meta Analysis
    Date: 2014–04
  25. By: Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Refk SELMI; Muhammad SHAHBAZ
    Abstract: The Electricity Consumption in a Rentier State: Do Institutions Matter?
    Date: 2014–04
  26. By: Bernhard Klaus Michel
    Abstract: Over the last couple of decades, trade liberalisation has progressed and environmental regulations have become more stringent, in particular regarding emissions of air pollution. This has raised the fear in developed countries that emission-intensive activities are increasingly carried out abroad. This paper develops an approach for testing whether emission-intensive industries have greater shares of imported intermediate materials. The test is applied to the Belgian manufacturing sector for the years 1995-2007. Emissions of three types of air pollutants are analysed: greenhouse gases, acidifying gases and tropospheric precursor gases. The results provide evidence that industries with a high intensity in acidifying gas emissions  (SO2, NOX and NH3) tend to import a greater share of intermediate materials. This is likely to be linked to the stricter enforcement of regulations for air quality, which act upon acidifying gases. There is no such evidence in the results for emissions of tropospheric precursor gases and in particular of greenhouse gases. Regarding the latter, despite stringent regulations, enforcement appears to be less strict.
    Keywords: Offshoring
    JEL: F14 F18 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2013–10–11
  27. By: Dimo Böhme
    Abstract: Public debate about energy relations between the EU and Russia is distorted. These distortions present considerable obstacles to the development of true partnership. At the core of the conflict is a struggle for resource rents between energy producing, energy consuming and transit countries. Supposed secondary aspects, however, are also of great importance. They comprise of geopolitics, market access, economic development and state sovereignty. The European Union, having engaged in energy market liberalisation, faces a widening gap between declining domestic resources and continuously growing energy demand. Diverse interests inside the EU prevent the definition of a coherent and respected energy policy. Russia, for its part, is no longer willing to subsidise its neighbouring economies by cheap energy exports. The Russian government engages in assertive policies pursuing Russian interests. In so far, it opts for a different globalisation approach, refusing the role of mere energy exporter. In view of the intensifying struggle for global resources, Russia, with its large energy potential, appears to be a very favourable option for European energy supplies, if not the best one. However, several outcomes of the strategic game between the two partners can be imagined. Engaging in non-cooperative strategies will in the end leave all stakeholders worse-off. The European Union should therefore concentrate on securing its partnership with Russia instead of damaging it. Stable cooperation would need the acceptance that the partner may pursue his own goals, which might be different from one’s own interests. The question is, how can a sustainable compromise be found? This thesis finds that a mix of continued dialogue, a tit for tat approach bolstered by an international institutional framework and increased integration efforts appears as a preferable solution.
    Keywords: EU, Russia, energy, gas, cooperation, resources
    Date: 2014–04
  28. By: Muireann Á. Lynch (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom); Richard Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom; Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Spatial Economic, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; CESifo, Munich, Germany); Mark J. O’Malley
    Abstract: We examine the payoffs to electrical interconnection between isolated systems considering minimisation of both costs and variability. We demonstrate that optimal interconnection portfolios cannot be derived analytically and must be simulated numerically. We present a mixed-integer linear programme which maximises payoff to interconnection and simulates the operation of stylised electricity systems. Interconnection is considered as both an endogenous and an exogenous variable. Demand and wind portfolios of varying levels of correlation are considered. Endogenous interconnection is negligible under all demand and wind scenarios. Under exogenous interconnection, one region is found to gain at the expense of another regarding both cost minimisation and variance minimisation. Payoff from interconnection is found to be primarily due to supply side considerations, in particular the thermal generation portfolio.
    Date: 2014–04
  29. By: Valentina Bosetti; Marco Maffezzoli
    Abstract: This paper is the first attempt, to the best of our knowledge, to study the impact of a carbon tax by means of a heterogeneous agents model. The objectives of the paper are two: i) To assess how the results of a representative agent model compare to those coming from a model accounting for heterogeneity across agents when evaluating aggregate economic and environmental impacts of a carbon tax; ii) To assess the distributional implications of a carbon tax and how they can be mitigated through different recycling schemes. We find that heterogeneous agents models may deliver different results from those derived using a representative agent model, the main tool used to guide policy making so far. In particular, we find evidence of a double dividend for several recycling schemes and carbon taxes as high as 20% of the energy price. In addition, we find the potential for redistributive channels related to carbon policies that can only be appreciated applying this type of modeling. JEL codes: Q58, Q54, E2.
    Date: 2014
  30. By: Sato, Hitoshi
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which electricity supply constraints could affect sectoral specialization. For this purpose, an empirical trade model is estimated from 1990-2008 panel data on 15 OECD countries and 12 manufacturing sectors. We find that along with Ricardian technological differences and Heckscher-Ohlin factor-endowment differences, productivity-adjusted electricity capacity drives sectoral specialization in several sectors. Among them, electrical equipment, transport equipment, machinery, chemicals, and paper products will see lower output shares as a result of decreases in productivity-adjusted electricity capacity. Furthermore, our dynamic panel estimation reveals that the effects of Ricardian technological differences dominate in the short-run, and factor endowment differences and productivity-adjusted electricity capacity tend to have a significant effect in only the long-run.
    Keywords: Developed countries, Electric power, Manufacturing industries, Technology, Productivity, International trade, Factor endowments, GDP function, Comparative advantage, Electricity
    JEL: F1 F11 Q40
    Date: 2014–03
  31. By: Hunt Allcott; Richard Sweeney
    Abstract: With a large nationwide retailer, we run a natural field experiment to measure the effects of energy use information disclosure, rebates, and sales agent incentives on demand for energy efficient durable goods. Sales incentives and rebates are complementary, but information and sales incentives alone have statistically and economically insignificant effects. Sales agents comply only partially with the experiment, targeting information at the most interested consumers but not discussing energy efficiency with the disinterested majority. In follow-up surveys, most consumers are aware of the energy efficient model and may even overestimate its benefits, suggesting that imperfect information is not a major barrier to adoption in this context.
    JEL: D04 D12 L15 L51 L68 Q48
    Date: 2014–04
  32. By: Ngo Van Long; Frank Staehler
    Abstract: This paper demonstrates that technological progress in production of renewable energy can influence the extraction path of fossil fuels indirectly by a change in the equilibrium interest rate. We show in a simple model that the indirect effect can be so strong that first-period or even aggregate extraction levels rise with technological progress. Cet article démontre que les progrès technologiques dans la production d'énergie renouvelable peut influencer la trajectoire de l'extraction de combustibles fossiles indirectement par un changement dans le taux d'intérêt d'équilibre. Nous montrons dans un modèle simple que l'effet indirect peut être si fort que les niveaux d'extraction augmentent avec le progrès technologique.
    Keywords: Natural Resources, Technical progress, The Green Paradox, Ressources naturelles, Progrès technologique, Le Paradoxe Vert
    JEL: Q31 Q42
    Date: 2014–02–01
  33. By: Takanori Ida; Kosuke Takemura; Masayuki Sato
    Abstract: Since the March 11 earthquake, Japanese households have been facing a trade-off problem between decreasing dependency on nuclear power generation and avoiding an increase in electricity rates. We analyze this inner conflict quantitatively, adopting two economic-psychological approaches: First, we note that the trade-off causes cognitive dissonance after making a choice that results in a wider desirability gap between the chosen alternative and the rejected alternative. Second, the consumer surplus improves by 11.2% with a no-choice option for suspending judgment in the presence of cognitive dissonance. Third, individual characteristics such as gender and annual household income are significantly correlated with both cognitive dissonance and a preference for the no-choice option.
    JEL: D3 D12 L94 Q41
  34. By: Christopher J. K. Knight; Alexandra S. Penn; Rebecca B. Hoyle
    Abstract: The Humber region in the UK is a large and diverse industrial area centred around oil refining, chemical industries and energy production. However there is currently a desire to see the region transition towards a more bio-based economy. New bio-related industries are being situated in the region as a consequence of policy and economic incentives. Many of these industries are connected through their supply chains, either directly, or by sharing common suppliers or customers and the growth or decline of one industry can hence have impacts on many others. Therefore an important question to consider is what effect this movement towards bio-based industry will actually have on the regional economy as a whole. In this paper we develop a general abstract dynamical model for the metabolic interactions of firms or industries. This dynamical model has been applied to the Humber region in order to gain a deeper understanding of how the region may develop. The model suggests that the transition to a bio-based economy will occur with oil refining losing its dominance to bioethanol production and biological chemical production, whilst anaerobic digestion grows as a major source of electricity, in turn driving up the value of regional waste aggregators and arable farming in the overall economy.
    Date: 2014–04
  35. By: Bénédicte Meurisse; Maxime Le Roy
    Abstract: This paper investigates household behaviour with regard to vehicle fuel efficiency. We propose to approach the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for better fuel efficiency through the Hicksian compensating variation in income. Specifically, we distinguish the Willingness to Pay or to Accept (WTA) buying a more fuel-efficient car from the theoretical WTP for a reduction in fuel consumption without changing one’s car. Then by assuming that the household has to replace its car, we estimate a WTP for the cleanest car. We also analyse what effect a fuel tax and/or a feebate scheme (e.g. a bonus-malus scheme) have on the WTP for the cleanest car and on the driven mileage. We find that the WTP for the cleanest car decreases following the implementation of a fuel tax. To the contrary, a feebate system leads to an increase in this WTP. But we also find that reducing the market price of the new vehicle (i.e. through a bonus) is not worthwhile in the light of the rebound effect. However, a fuel tax – as soon as it exceeds a certain level – is able to nullify the rebound effect.
    Keywords: fuel efficiency, willingness to pay, fuel tax, feebate scheme, rebound effect.
    JEL: D11 Q58
    Date: 2014
  36. By: Ingmar Schumacher
    Abstract: The results in this paper show that the level of aggregation used in a social welfare func- tion matters significantly for policy analysis. Using climate change as an example, it is shown that, under the mild and widely-accepted assumptions of asymmetric climate change impacts and declining marginal utility, an aggregation dilemma may arise that dwarfs most other policy-relevant aspects in the climate change cost-benefit analysis. Estimates based on the RICE-99 model (Nordhaus and Boyer 2000) suggest that aggregation leads to around 26% higher total world emissions than those from a regional model. The backstop energy use would be zero in the model which aggregates consumption in utility, while it would be 1.3% of Gross World Product in a regionally-disaggregated version. In general we observe that richer countries will be required to undertake stronger efforts toward climate policy based on the aggregated utility social welfare function and compared to both the aggregated utility function with Negishi weights and the aggregated consumption function. We propose criteria that may aid in deciding on the level of aggregation one might wish to choose de- pending on both positive and normative criteria. Though the policy recommendations from fully aggregated models like the DICE model are always used as a benchmark for policy making, the results here suggest that this should be done with the reservations raised by the Aggregation Dilemma in mind.
    Keywords: Aggregation Dilemma; social welfare function; Integrated Assessment Models; climate policy.
    JEL: Q54 Q58
    Date: 2014–04–10
  37. By: Danielle Devogelaer
    Abstract: In this working paper, the employment effect triggered by a transition towards an all renewable energy system in Belgium by 2050 is scrutinized. The job impact is estimated up until the year 2030. Using a labour intensity methodology, net job gains are to be expected in each renewable trajectory for any given year. A distinction is made between construction, installation and manufacturing (CIM) and operations, maintenance and fuel processing (O&M) jobs, with the maximum amount of CIM jobs created over the reference scenario exceeding the amount of O&M jobs. This points to the fact that renewable energy sources tend to have a higher construction and installation component in employment than fossil fuels. These installation jobs, along with numerous other job types (e.g. monitoring, planning, certifying), are bound to be and remain domestic. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of applying a decreasing employment multiplier over time is modeled, accompanied by an enumeration of arguments pro and contra using this type of multiplier. All through the paper, a number of reflections are brought to the fore that may nuance the obtained figures and effects. In order for the jobs to materialize, targeted educations, preferably in close collaboration with industry, technical schooling and interest in science are crucial. Enabling policies and measures within a solid, transparent policy framework should accompany the whole process. In this regard, some policy domains and actions are described that could prove useful in tapping the vast job potential.
    Keywords: Employment, Long-term energy projections, Input-output analysis, Renewable energy sources
    JEL: C6 Q4
    Date: 2013–09–09
  38. By: Dasgupta, Manjira; Dasgupta, Sambuddha N.
    Abstract: Given the indisputable fact that urbanization has long become the cornerstone of industrialization and development efforts in India, this paper specifically takes up the issues of urbanization as related to energy usage and sustainability issues. We find that urbanization has followed a model that is neither energy-efficient, nor, for the very same reasons, sustainable on a long-term planning horizon. The empirical relationship between urbanization and energy use is examined, with strong evidence of urbanization having led the continual increase in energy use per capita in India. The pattern of urbanization and some of its other salient characteristics are also examined and their energy and environment-related consequences discussed. Some important data and empirical evidence are highlighted and policy inferences drawn. Finally, some tentative policy suggestions have been offered as to the course along which future urbanization efforts should be directed.
    Keywords: Urbanization, Energy prices, Energy use, India, Sustainable Development
    JEL: O13 O18 Q3 Q4
    Date: 2014–12
  39. By: Ikram Jebabli; Mohamed Arouri; Frédéric Teulon
    Abstract: Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shocks transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new Time Varying Parameter VAR model (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that there is volatility spillover from crude oil and international stock markets to food markets. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance.
    Keywords: Price volatility, TVP-VAR model, stochastic volatility, total volatility spillovers, directional volatility spillovers, food market, energy market, financial market, portfolios diversification, hedge effectiveness.
    Date: 2014–04–10
  40. By: Linda T.M. Bui (Economics Department, Brandeis University)
    Abstract: I investigate whether households face reduced access to energy efficient goods in low income, high minority, or polluted neighborhoods. Using data from over 27,000 zip codes, I uncover empirical regularities in access to three categories of Energy Star goods: light bulbs, electronics, and appliances. I find (1) lower income neighborhoods experience reduced access to Energy Star goods; (2) racially diverse areas have less access to energy efficient light bulbs but greater access to energy efficient electronics; and (3) more polluted areas are not at a disadvantage in accessing Energy Star products. This is the first study examining this issue.
    Date: 2014–02
  41. By: Alain Henry; Dimi Jottier
    Abstract: This working paper describes TransAccount, an accounting model created at the FPB to build sustainable development scenarios, in particular their climate and energy segment, using a backcasting approach. To construct a scenario with TransAccount, the long term objectives and hypotheses of a global sustainable development scenario (for example Pyramid or Mosaic, scenarios published in the Belgian 4th Federal Report on Sustainable Development) have to be translated into quantitative objectives and hypotheses on technologies and on consumption and production patterns. The constructed scenarios highlight the changes needed in technology and in consumption and production patterns to meet the challenges of a sustainable development.
    Date: 2013–12–11
  42. By: Fernando Antonio Slaibe Postali; Lauro Carnicelli
    Abstract: With the pre-salt discoveries, the discussions about the impact of oil windfalls – royalties and special participation – on Brazilian localities have intensified. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the issue, using a methodology that allows the building of a counterfactual for municipalities treated with oil resources. The aim is to investigate whether these transfers reduce the own tax effort of cities covered by such revenues. For this, we apply the doubly robust method to a panel of municipalities observed from 2000 to 2009. The method consists of two stages. Firstly, it estimates the likelihood of receiving oil revenues conditioned to observable variables; in the second stage, a fixed-effects model is estimated with data belonging to a common support constructed through the estimated propensity scores in the first stage. The results show that there is a negative effect of oil royalties on the fiscal effort of the cities benefited. However, this result does not occur when one computes the average effect on all cities.
    Keywords: Propensity score; doubly robust; oil royalties; fiscal effort; panel.
    JEL: H77 C21
    Date: 2014–04–11
  43. By: Heidorn, Thomas; Mokinski, Frieder; Rühl, Christoph; Schmaltz, Christian
    Abstract: We study how the exposure of fundamental and financial traders affects the futures curve of WTI oil and the market integration between WTI and Brent as measured by their price spread. To obtain a parsimonious representation of the futures curve, we decompose it into a level-, a slope- and a curvature factor. In a second step, we separately regress each extracted factor on measures of the market exposure of fundamental and financial traders revealing whether and how the exposure of the two trader groups affects the different dimensions of the futures curve. Spanning from 2006 until 2012, our dataset covers sub-periods of a sharp WTI-price rise as well as a diverging Brent-WTI-spread. Our contribution is threefold: First, we suggest that it is important to distinguish between level and slope as we find that fundamental traders have a measurable impact on the level of the futures curve, but do not play much of a role for its slope or curvature, whereas the exposure of financial traders mainly influences the slope of the futures curve. Despite allegations to the contrary, we find no evidence of a systematic impact of non-fundamental traders on the level of the futures curve, for example during the 2006-2008 oil price surge. Second, we suggest using relative short- and relative long positions for fundamental and financial traders instead of the net position as the former reflect better the overall group exposure and yield more significant results. Third, we find that the exposure of financials is the key driver of the Brent-WTI spread. It confirms that financial rather than fun-damental traders are responsible for integrating the two markets. --
    Keywords: WTI,Price speculation,Oil price rise,Market Integration
    JEL: Q40 G13
    Date: 2014
  44. By: Michel Damian (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I)
    Abstract: L'économie standard de l'environnement et de l'effet de serre - centrée sur la théorie des prix au détriment d'une économie de la production - a fait perdre deux décennies à la compréhension de la question climatique et a, en quelque sorte, bloqué la réflexion sur les voies de la décarbonisation. L'action collective a été engagée en 1992 avec la signature de la Convention sur les changements climatiques, puis mise en œuvre dans le cadre du Protocole de Kyoto à partir de 1997. Elle était fondée sur deux piliers : 1) un accord multilatéral contraignant susceptible de s'imposer un jour à tous les Etats et, 2) un marché international des gaz à effet de serre susceptible de minimiser le coût total de la réduction des émissions. Cette architecture " par le haut " est aujourd'hui dans une impasse. La thèse soutenue est que la politique pour préserver le climat change de paradigme. La nouvelle approche se focalise sur la production. Elle prend la forme d'une transition énergétique et industrielle de longue durée, très différemment envisagée d'un pays à l'autre. C'est une démarche " par le bas ", dans laquelle les politiques nationales, les réglementations, et les technologies à basse teneur en carbone, deviennent la pierre d'angle de la lutte contre le réchauffement. L'Accord climatique de Paris, qui devrait être signé en 2015, sera fondé sur les politiques nationales et entérinera ce changement de paradigme.
    Keywords: politique climatique ; historique
    Date: 2014
  45. By: Frédéric Gonand; Pierre-André Jouvet
    Abstract: The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The "second dividend" modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the "second dividend" in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The article uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income tax rather than higher public lumpsum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the "second dividend" is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.
    Keywords: Energy transition, intergenerational redistribution, overlapping generations, double dividend, general equilibrium
    JEL: D58 D63 E62 L7 Q28 Q43
    Date: 2014
  46. By: Bagayev, Igor; Najman, Boris
    Abstract: In this paper we provide original findings on the impact of local financial development (LFD) on manufacturing firms' energy intensity in European and Central Asian (ECA) post communist countries. We implement the two-step method of Guiso et al. (2004) in order to build a lagged measure of financial development at the local level. The paper is the first to use this methodology to assess local financial development in the ECA region and to test its effect on firm-level energy demand. According to related literature, our findings also show that firm size matters. But we also provide a new insight about the non-linear effect of financial development depending on the scope of the financial market. We show that while energy consumption of small businesses is more affected by local financial markets, large firms are more sensitive to countrywide financial in-depth. Overall, this paper provides econometric evidence for a financial access explanation of the "energy efficiency gap". Improving financing opportunities should increase firms’ energy efficiency. Moreover, focus on local conditions and small firms should be an important feature of active energy-saving financial policies.
    Keywords: Energy Intensity, Local Financial Development, Firm Size, ECA Region
    JEL: D22 P28 Q4
    Date: 2014–04–01
  47. By: Luc Avonds
    Abstract: The input-output table of 2005 has been, together with new versions of the tables for 1995 and 2005, subjected to a traditional input-output analysis by means of the cumulated costs : the analysis of value added and intermediate imports directly and indirectly caused in the whole economy by the deliveries of one industry to final demand. By means of this technique the share of energy in the (cumulated) cost structure of the industries and components of final demand is examined.
    Keywords: Belgium, Input-output analysis
    JEL: D57
    Date: 2013–09–26
  48. By: Wenli Cheng; Dingsheng Zhang; CEMA
    Abstract: This paper develops a set of three models to study the optimal tax-subsidy regime in an economy characterised by two deviations from the perfect competition model – negative externality from pollution by the “dirty” industry, and increasing returns in the “clean” industry. Its main conclusions are: (1) the optimal single pollution tax is higher than the Pigouvian level; (2) a combination of pollution tax and quantity subsidy increases consumer welfare at a lower level of pollution tax; (3) the optimal pollution tax can be further lowered and consumer welfare further increased if the quantity subsidy is supplemented by a lump-sum subsidy.
    Keywords: optimal pollution tax, clean subsidy, increasing returns, monopolistic competition
    JEL: H23
    Date: 2014–04
  49. By: Dongfeng Chang (University of Calgary); Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary)
    Date: 2014–03–31
  50. By: Marie-Laure Nauleau (CIRED)
    Abstract: This econometric study assesses the efficiency of the income tax credit system implemented in France in 2005 on households’ retrofitting investment decisions, focusing on insulation measures. A logit model with random individual effects is estimated using an unbalanced panel of 23,879 households surveyed over the period 2002-2011. An estimation in difference is performed to identify the impact of the policy. The tax credit had no significant effect during the first two years, suggesting a latency period related to inertia in households’ investment decisions, possibly due to the complexity of the tax credit scheme. The tax credit had an increasing, significant positive effect from 2007 to 2010, before slightly decreasing in 2011. This is in line with changes in the tax credit rates, suggesting a correlation with the level of subsidy. Defined as the situation in which the subsidized household would have invested even in the absence of the subsidy, free-riding progressively decreased over the period and was lower for insulation of opaque surfaces (roofs, walls, etc.) than for insulation of windows. The estimated average proportion of free-riders varies between 40% and 85% after 2006. Finally, we assess the potential bias caused by time-varying unobservable variables and conclude that our estimates of the impacts of the policy are conservative.
    Keywords: Energy Conservation, Residential Sector, Thermal Insulation, Tax Credit, Free-Riding, Difference Estimation, Panel Data, France
    JEL: Q48 R22 D12
    Date: 2014–03
  51. By: Edilio Valentini (Department of Economics, University G. d'Annunzio of Chieti-Pescara); Paolo Vitale (Department of Economics, University G. d'Annunzio of Chieti-Pescara)
    Abstract: In this paper we characterize the preferences of a pessimistic social planner concerned with the potential costs of extreme, low-probability climate events. This pessimistic attitude is represented by a recursive optimization criterion à la Hansen and Sargent (1995) that introduces supplementary curvature in the social preferences of standard linear-quadratic optimization analysis and, under certain conditions, it can be shown to correspond to the Epstein-Zin recursive utility. The introduction of extra convexity and the separation between risk-aversion and time-preference implies that, independently of the choice of the discount rate, a sharp, early and steady mitigation effort arises as the optimal climate policy, supporting the main recommendation of the Stern Review (Stern, 2007). Nonetheless, we accommodate for its main criticism of using a too low and questionable discount rate (Nordhaus, 2007), while preserving the assumption of a normal (thin-tailed) probability distribution (Weitzman, 2009). Finally, we argue that our theoretical framework is sufficiently general and robust to possible mis-specifications of the model.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Climate Policy Targets, Risk Aversion, Pessimism
    JEL: C61 Q54
    Date: 2014–03
  52. By: Wittmann, Nadine
    Abstract: In 2011, price peaks in retail gasoline prices caused public outrage and attracted the attention of German regulatory agencies. After having examined the market, competition authorities concluded that tacit collusion existed but could not easily be prosecuted under the given competition law. In several other countries, various types of regulatory schemes are implemented to tackle tacit collusive behavior. E.g. there are price ceilings established in Luxembourg or per day limits of price increases given in Austria. However, research has found that none of them has led to satisfactory results. Hence, the following paper proposes a different regulatory approach, i.e. the implementation of corrective taxes. Results show that a special type of variable tax scheme successfully manages to render collusion an unprofitable business. In addition, it is also easy to levy and monitor. Thereby, the inherent vice of the gasoline retail market, i.e. the transparency that enables tacit - and therefore non-prosecutable - collusion, could be turned into a regulatory virtue as it becomes a powerful means to help successfully tackle imperfect competition and to bring about a more efficient market outcome. --
    Keywords: gasoline retail market,regulation,market structure and antitrust,collusion
    JEL: Q48 D42 D43
    Date: 2014
  53. By: Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin; Ingrid Peignier; Vincent Mouchikhine; Mohamed Mahfouf
    Abstract: Underground lies a vast network of conduits and cables that delivers products and services to today’s society. These underground infrastructures include telecommunication and electrical cables, gas conduits, sewers, water lines, drainage systems, oil pipelines, etc. The increasing number of networks, along with their shallow burial, translates into contractors regularly striking them while doing repair or rehabilitation work of all kinds. The research’s general objective is to present a detailed study of damage related indirect costs to underground infrastructures that could be used for damage prevention and as an incentive for best practices. By providing a complete list of socio-economic costs and a realistic damage related costing, this essential step will help convince contractors of the importance of damage prevention as well as help reduce the total damage related costs for everyone (companies, population, municipalities, emergency services, etc.). This project is even more relevant since urban networks are more and more buried, be it for aesthetic reasons (effort to repossess the landscape) or for security reasons (risk reduction due to climate incidents, risk elimination associated to the presence of vegetation in urban environments). In this respect, the importance of improving underground network management takes on an even greater dimension.
    Date: 2013–11–01
  54. By: Blomkvist, Pär (Department of Industrial Economics and Management, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm); Emanuel, Martin (Department of Industrial Economics and Management, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm)
    Abstract: The first of July 1952, the moped was legislatively excluded from existing restrictions for heavier two-wheeled motorized vehicles. A driver/owner of a “bicycle with auxiliary engine” – this was the original denomination of the vehicle – thus needed no registration, driver’s license or insurance, nor pay any vehicle tax. The legislators did, however, postulate some technical requirements. Besides regulation of the engine, the vehicle should be “bicycle-like” and have pedals. It should thus be driven primarily by means of human, not mechanical, power (i.e., it was not supposed to be a lighter version of a motorcycle). In terms of social and economic goals, the state assumed workers to be the primary users, and a utilitarian use rather than one connected to pleasure and spare time. Very quickly, however, the moped lost all resemblance with the ordinary bicycle (except for the pedals). In a new legislation in 1961, the state yielded to the technical development. The moped no longer needed to resemble a bicycle or have pedals. Meanwhile, the moped also became more of a toy for boys – a vehicle for freedom – rather than the useful tool the state had wished for. In fact, we argue that the demands from user groups not foreseen played a crucial role in changing the legal technical requirements of the moped.This paper deals with the co-evolution, technically and institutionally, of the moped during the period 1952–75. Using a method inspired by evolutionary theory, the moped models released in Sweden in these years are grouped in “families” with distinctive technical features and accompanying presumed uses. We analyze this development using concepts from the theoretical fields of innovation studies and the history of technology (STS/SCOT).
    Keywords: bicycle; co-evolution of technology and institutions; demand specification; dominant design; evolutionary theory; history of technology; industrial dynamics; moped; motorcycle; road traffic legislation; technology studies; transport history
    JEL: B25 B52 L51 L61 N74 O31 O33 Z18
    Date: 2014–04–11
  55. By: Shuhei Nishitateno; Paul J. Burke
    Abstract: The evolution of motorcycle ownership is a crucial issue for road safety, as motorcyclists are highly vulnerable road users. Analyzing a panel of 153 countries for the period 1963-2010, we document a motorcycle Kuznets curve which sees motorcycle dependence increase and then decrease as economies develop. Upswings in motorcycle ownership are particularly pronounced in densely populated countries. We also present macro-level evidence on the additional road fatalities associated with motorcycles. Our results indicate that many low-income countries face the prospect of an increasing number of motorcycle-related deaths over coming years unless adequate safety initiatives are implemented.
    Keywords: motorcycles, economic development, Kuznets curve, road safety, road fatalities
    JEL: R41 O18 Q43
    Date: 2014
  56. By: Antoine Bommier (Chair for Integrative Risk Management and Economics - ETH Zurich); Bruno Lanz (Center for International Environmental Studies - Graduate Institute Geneva); Stéphane Zuber (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris 1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)
    Abstract: We study the role of alternative intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast the traditional "discounted utility" model, which assumes risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, with a multiplicative choice model that displays risk aversion in that dimension. First, we show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same "business as usual" economy for a given interest rate and no pollution externality. Second, once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate is a function of the pollution stock, multiplicative preferences recommend a much more stringent policy response. An illustration in the context of climate change indicates that switching to the multiplicative preference representation has a similar effect, in terms of policy recommendations, as scaling up the schedule of the hazard rate by a factor of 100.
    Keywords: Environmental policy; climate change; catastrophic risks; risk aversion; discounting
    Date: 2014–03

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