nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2013‒12‒20
eleven papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Decarbonising urban transportation By Joseph V. Spadaro; Sérgio H. Faria; Anil Markandya
  2. Sustainable Decision-Making: Non-Monetary Incentives for Pro-Social Behavior in the Energy Sector By Stephanie Rosenkranz; Katrin Muehlfeld; Gerwin van der Laan; Utz Weitzel; Jeroen van der Donk; Helia Ivanova; Erik-Jan van Kesteren; Milou Ottink; Heleen van der Spek
  3. Flex Cars and Competition in Ethanol and Gasoline Retail Markets By Juliano Assuncao; Joao Paulo Pessoa; Leonardo Rezende
  4. Property Rights, Oil and Income Levels: Over a Century of Evidence By Brunnschweiler, Christa N.; Valente, Simone
  5. Trans Anadolu Dogal Gaz Boru Hattı Projesinin Ekonomik ve Stratejik Beklentileri By Suleymanov, Elchin; Hasanov, Fakhri; Nuri Aras, Osman
  6. Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk By Patrick Henaff; Ismail Laachir; Francesco Russo
  7. Consumer choice of electricity supplier: Investigating preferences for attributes of electricity services. By Ndebele, T.; Marsh, D.
  8. The Basic WIOD CGE Model: A computable general equilibrium model based on the World Input-Output Database By Koesler, Simon; Pothen, Frank
  9. Clean-development investments : an incentive-compatible CGE modeling framework By Bohringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomas F.; Springmannc, Marco
  10. Anthropogenic drivers of carbon emissions: scale and counteracting effects By Hwang, In Chang
  11. Self-protection as a limit to strategic delegation in the context of global pollution problems By Heuson, Clemens

  1. By: Joseph V. Spadaro; Sérgio H. Faria; Anil Markandya
    Abstract: The transportation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for around one-quarter of current annual emissions. Surface transportation (passenger vehicles, buses, rail, and freight transportation) contributes 75% of total emissions, with the remaining 25% allocated equally between air and water transport. According to the recently released 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC (September 2013), the transportation sector is expected to grow significantly in future years, particularly in rapidly developing countries around the world, and will therefore be one of a few key drivers of increasing global warming. Unless there is a major political effort and consumer willingness to change current energy consumption patterns and travel modes over the next few decades, transport-related emissions are likely to double by 2050 relative to levels observed in 2010. Because of the contribution of transportation to climate change and its impact on urban air quality, a comparative assessment of potential carbon emission reductions and health benefits of reduced particulate matter emissions was undertaken considering several low carbon pathways for development of the urban road transport sector up to 2050. As a result, we conclude that aggressive changes will be needed to scale back future emissions by 20% (or more) compared to present day emissions. These changes will impact vehicle fuel economy (+50%), urban mobility patterns (lower private car demand and greater use of public transportation), choice of alternative fuels (less use of petroleum-based fuels and greater use of biofuels and electrons) and electricity generation mix (greater use of renewables, carbon capture technologies for limiting fossil fuel carbon emissions, and/or nuclear energy). Public acceptance is fundamental to bring about changes in consumer attitudes and behaviour. Given the long lead times required for research, development, demonstration and deployment of new technologies, the time to act is now if we are to limit the global mean surface temperature increase to within 2°C above preindustrial levels.
    Keywords: transportation; biofuels; climate change; low carbon pathways; carbon price; electricity decarbonisation; health impacts; DALY.
    Date: 2013–11
  2. By: Stephanie Rosenkranz; Katrin Muehlfeld; Gerwin van der Laan; Utz Weitzel; Jeroen van der Donk; Helia Ivanova; Erik-Jan van Kesteren; Milou Ottink; Heleen van der Spek
    Abstract: Taking into account insights into the reality of human decision-making, is an important challenge for today's policymakers. Are there `cheaper', more efficient and possibly as well more effective, non-financial ways of influencing the behaviour of private and corporate citizens, nudging them towards socially desired choices, for example, in the domain of energy consumption? Can such mechanisms complement or substitute for monetary incentives in fostering sustainable decision-making in policy relevant areas such as energy consumption? If so, what mechanisms might be feasible to implement in actual policymaking? Against this background, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (Ministerie van Economische Zaken) wants to know which "nudges" are the most suitable for application in the field of energy conservation. To this end, in this report we (1) take stock what is known about the effects of non-monetary incentives in general, and legacy reminders in particular, in increasing individuals' regard for collective interests and for intergenerational beneficence, in particular in the domain of energy consumption (literature review); (2) investigate in a laboratory setting the effects of selected non-monetary incentives on a selection of relevant decision tasks (laboratory experiments); and (3) apply the insights from the literature review and laboratory experiments to specific instruments of policy-making in the Netherlands.
    Keywords: Behavioral Economics, Choice Architecture, Nudge, Energy Efficiency
    JEL: D01 D03 D04
    Date: 2013–10
  3. By: Juliano Assuncao; Joao Paulo Pessoa; Leonardo Rezende
    Abstract: In Brazil, gasoline and ethanol coexist as automotive fuels and are becoming closer substitutes as flex cars become more widely adopted. We employ this source of variation in a large panel of weekly prices at the station level to show that fuel prices have fallen in response to this change. This finding is evidence of market power in fuel retail and indicates that innovations that increase consumer choice benefit even those who choose not to adopt them. We also propose a model of price competition in this market and use it to estimate demand from price response functions.
    Keywords: Flex-fuel vehicles, Gasoline, Ethanol, Price competition, Spatial Competition, Discrete equilibrium price dispersion
    JEL: L11 L13 L62 L71
    Date: 2013–12
  4. By: Brunnschweiler, Christa N.; Valente, Simone
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of different regimes of control rights over oil exploitation on aggregate domestic income. We construct a new panel dataset on petroleum ownership structures for up to 68 countries between 1867-2008, distinguishing among regimes of Domestic Control, Foreign Control, and international Partnerships. Results show that Partnerships tend to generate higher domestic income than Foreign and Domestic Control. This result is robust to controlling for political regimes (i.e. democracy, anocracy, autocracy), time effects, and other factors. Existing theories of incomplete contracts capture several aspects, but not the general mechanism underlying the relationships between aggregate domestic income and control regimes in primary sectors
    Keywords: Property rights, Control rights, National Income, Panel data, Petroleum
    JEL: D23 F20 O13
    Date: 2013–12
  5. By: Suleymanov, Elchin; Hasanov, Fakhri; Nuri Aras, Osman
    Abstract: The Republic of Azerbaijan is one of the oil and gas rich countires of the former Soviet Union. After the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field, natural gas exltation and exportation became one of the key issues in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas stategy. Diversification of the oil and gas transportation is key issue for Azerbaijan’s energy security policy. In this regard, TANAP is one of the important project after Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. TANAP is proposed natural gas pipeline for transporting Azerbaijani natural gas through Turkey to Europe in two directions. The project is firstly announced on 17 November 2011 at the Third Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum in Istanbul and singed on 26 June 2012.By starting 2014 and finishing 2018, TANAP will cost billion USD and will be the capacity of 23 billion cubic metres by 2023 and 31 billion cubic metres by 2026.
    Keywords: TANAP,Energy,Oil,Natural gas,Pipeline
    JEL: F1 F13 F5 F53 Q40 Q43 Q47
    Date: 2013–09–15
  6. By: Patrick Henaff (IAE Paris); Ismail Laachir (UMA); Francesco Russo (UMA)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts for the main stylized facts of the US natural gas market, such as seasonality and presence of price spikes. The second aspect of the paper is related to the quantification of model uncertainty related to the spot dynamics.
    Date: 2013–12
  7. By: Ndebele, T.; Marsh, D.
    Abstract: The retail electricity market in New Zealand is evolving as the government continues to promote the development of a competitive and efficient market. Encouraging consumer switching through the “What’s My Number” campaign is expected to put pressure on electricity retailers to reduce prices. Recent reports indicate that relatively few customers have switched supplier in the past two years despite potential average savings of NZ$165 per year per household. This suggests that non-price factors are also important determinants of switching behavior. We use choice experiments to investigate residential consumers’ preferences for the attributes of electricity suppliers and the possible role of attitudes in explaining preference heterogeneity among the sampled respondents. Data required for the study was collected through a web survey administered to an online panel of bill payers in New Zealand. Willingness to pay (WTP) is estimated for attributes of electricity suppliers such as renewable portfolio, local ownership, discount rates, fixed rate plan, loyalty rewards and supplier type. WTP estimates indicate the importance of the attributes and hence provide guidance to suppliers in designing their price and service offers. Knowledge of how attitudes influence switching behavior may inform future policy directed at stimulating competition in the retail market.
    Keywords: electricity suppliers, environmental attitude, choice experiments, latent class model, willingness to pay, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2013–08
  8. By: Koesler, Simon; Pothen, Frank
    Abstract: This report presents the Basic WIOD CGE model. The model represents the first implementation of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) into the CGE framework and is tailored to provide a maximum fit with WIOD data. The model is specifically designed such that it can serve as the basis for research in fields like environmental, climate and trade policy. It incorporates key features of WIOD such as bilateral and bisectoral trade ows, satellite accounts for energy consumption, greenhouse gas as well as other emissions to air on a sectoral level. As all WIOD data is available in the form of a consistent time series ranging from 1995 to 2009, the model can be calibrated to any year within this time period. The model relies on substitution elasticities which are consistently estimated from the same dataset the model itself is calibrated to. Moreover, the data preparation facilities and model are designed deliberately as exible as possible in order to allow researchers to use them as a basis for various applications. This enables researchers to secure the numerous advantages of the WIOD dataset when using CGE models for future research. --
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE),Input-Output,World Input Output Database (WIOD)
    JEL: C67 C68 E01
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Bohringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomas F.; Springmannc, Marco
    Abstract: The Clean Development Mechanism established under the Kyoto Protocol allows industrialized Annex I countries to offset part of their domestic emissions by investing in emissions-reduction projects in developing non-Annex I countries. Computable general equilibrium analysis of the Clean Development Mechanism's impacts so far mimics the Clean Development Mechanism as a sector emissions trading scheme, thereby overstating its potential to save climate change mitigation costs. This study develops a novel approach that represents the Clean Development Mechanism more realistically by compensating Clean Development Mechanism implementing sectors for additional abatement cost and by endogenizing Clean Development Mechanism credits as a function of investment. Compared with previous representations, the proposed approach is more consistent in its incentive structure and investment characteristics at the sector level. An empirical application of the new methodology demonstrates that the economy-wide cost savings from the Clean Development Mechanism tend to be lower than suggested by conventional modeling approaches while Clean Development Mechanism implementing sectors do not lose in output.
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Energy Production and Transportation,Economic Theory&Research,Environment and Energy Efficiency
    Date: 2013–12–01
  10. By: Hwang, In Chang
    Abstract: This paper assesses the achievement and the limitation of our path to the stabilization of anthropogenic carbon emissions with economic growth using a stochastic Kaya model. The elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to anthropogenic drivers such as population, affluence, energy efficiency, fossil-fuel dependence, and emission factor is estimated using panel data of 132 countries from 1960 to 2010. Then the stochastic Kaya model is used for index decomposition analysis. Investigating the scale and the counteracting effects, I find that except a few countries like Germany, most countries have not achieved the goal of carbon reductions with economic growth. In addition, the current path of each nation does not guarantee the achievement of a global long-term goal of emissions reductions, say 50% by 2050 compared to the 1990 level. This is because the scale effect (the sum of the population and affluence effects) is so large that the current level of the technology effects can rarely offset carbon emissions. Should we achieve the global target for carbon reductions a significant amount of technology effects through stringent policy interventions need to be accompanied.
    Keywords: Climate policy; CO2 emissions; stochastic Kaya model; index decomposition analysis; LMDI
    JEL: Q54 Q56 Q57
    Date: 2013–12–13
  11. By: Heuson, Clemens
    Abstract: This paper analyses the outcome of non-cooperative national efforts in combatting global pollu-tion problems when governments are elected by their citizens. It is well-known that the latter tend to vote governments that are less 'green' than the median voter in order to commit to lower national mitigation efforts, which further increases the inefficiently high amount of global emis-sions. However, the present paper shows that the option of self-protection against environmen-tal damages, which has been invariably neglected in the relevant literature to date, alleviates or even completely offsets such strategic delegation and the related adverse effects. --
    Keywords: strategic delegation,global pollution problems,self-protection,non-cooperative behaviour
    JEL: C72 D72 H41 Q58
    Date: 2013

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