|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Vincent Bertrand |
| Abstract: | European power producers have a major influence on the EU ETS, given that both their CO2 emissions and their EUA (European Union Allowance) allocations account for more than half of the total volumes of the scheme. Fuel switching is often considered as the main short-term abatement measure under the EU ETS. It consists in substituting combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) for hard-coal plants in power generation. Thereby coal plants run for shorter periods, and CO2 emissions are reduced. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of fuel switching, in a context where power plants involved are not equally efficient. We begin with some analyses which enable us to observe how differences in the efficiency of power plants impact the cost of fuel switching, and how this is related to the level of switching effort. Based on these preliminary analyses, we build the first partial equilibrium model taking into account the effect of differences in the efficiency of power plants involved in fuel switching. We also investigate the effect of the timing of fuel switching abatements, within the temporally defined environment of our dynamic partial equilibrium model. Results show that the gas price, uncontrolled CO2 emissions and the timing of abatement (through the time of occurrence of random shocks on uncontrolled emissions) act together on the carbon price, and on its relationship with fuel prices.. |
| Keywords: | Tradable Emission Allowances, Fuel Switching, EU ETS, Efficiency of power plants, Partial Equilibrium Modeling |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1309&r=ene |
| By: | Dasgupta, Susmita; Martin, Paul; Samad, Hussain A. |
| Abstract: | Household air pollution is the second leading cause of disease in Madagascar, where more than 99 percent of households rely on solid biomass, such as charcoal, wood, and crop waste, as the main cooking fuel. Only a limited number of studies have looked at the emissions and health consequences of cook stoves in Africa. This paper summarizes an initiative to monitor household air pollution in two towns in Madagascar, with a stratified sample of 154 and 184 households. Concentrations of fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide in each kitchen were monitored three times using UCB Particle Monitors and GasBadge Pro Single Gas Monitors. The average concentrations of both pollutants significantly exceeded World Health Organization guidelines for indoor exposure. A fixed-effect panel regression analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various factors, including fuel (charcoal, wood, and ethanol), stove (traditional and improved ethanol), kitchen size, ventilation, building materials, and ambient environment. Judging by its effect on fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide, ethanol is significantly cleaner than biomass fuels and, for both pollutants, a larger kitchen significantly improves the quality of household air. Compared with traditional charcoal stoves, improved charcoal stoves were found to have no significant impact on air quality, but the improved wood stove with a chimney was effective in reducing concentrations of carbon monoxide in the kitchen, as was ventilation. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Poverty Alleviation,Health Monitoring&Evaluation |
| Date: | 2013–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6627&r=ene |
| By: | Oskar Lecuyer (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Ruben Bibas (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866439&r=ene |
| By: | Oskar Lecuyer (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Adrien Vogt-Schilb (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Climate change mitigation requires to replace preexisting carbon-intensive capital with different types of cleaner capital. Coal power and inefficient thermal engines may be phased out by gas power and efficient thermal engines or by renewable power and electric vehicles. We derive the optimal timing and costs of investment in a low- and a zero-carbon technology, under an exogenous ceiling constraint on atmospheric pollution. Producing output from the low-carbon technology requires to extract an exhaustible resource. A general finding is that investment in the expensive zero-carbon technology should always be higher than, and can optimally start before, investment in the cheaper low-carbon technology. We then provide illustrative simulations calibrated with data from the European electricity sector. The optimal investment schedule involves building some gas capacity that will be left unused before it naturally depreciates, a process known as mothballing or early scrapping. Finally, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a misleading metric to assess investment in new capacities. Optimal LCOEs vary dramatically across technologies. Ranking technologies according to their LCOE would bring too little investment in renewable power, and too much in the intermediate gas power. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866442&r=ene |
| By: | Trinh Hoang Anh Nguyen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | With its rapidly increasing power demand of 16% p.a since 1990s along with its limited supply power capacity, how sustainable is Vietnam's electricity development? What are the major factors explaining its performance relative to other Asian countries? To answer these questions, this paper examines the Vietnamese power system from the 1990s to 2040 by using LEAP simulation. Twelve vulnerability and externality indexes regarding social-economic-environmental dimensions are calculated to assess vulnerability levels of the sector in seven scenarios. External costs of CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10 are calculated to examine how far the costs could affect on the electricity cost in Vietnam. In sensitivity analysis, the paper assesses the impacts of international coal price's fluctuations on the electricity price and the trade balance of Vietnam. The study confirms that Vietnam's power sector will become more vulnerable to fossil fuels' prices, environmental pollutants and climate change if the sector goes for the current policy pathways. With the efficiency scenarios examined in the study, the sector would be more independent and less vulnerable. To reduce the vulnerabilities, the study suggests that Vietnam should promote energy efficiency and electricity generation from non-fossil fuels and internalize external costs into the power sector. Vietnam needs also get involved in international financial mechanisms for clean development and technology transfer programs to efficiently exploit its renewable energy potentials. |
| Keywords: | energy planning, sustainable development, vulnerability, externality, Vietnam, electric power |
| Date: | 2013–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00869314&r=ene |
| By: | Dominique Finon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Apart from the UK where it has been widely discussed in the 2011 Electricity Market Reform, energy experts communities are still unaware of the impacts that carbon policies directly focused on the development of low carbon technologies produce on the electricity market regime. Public co-ordination with long term arrangements needs to be introduced as a substitute to long term co-ordination by the market. Indeed, the current market co-ordination makes carbon prices ineffective at orienting investors towards low carbon technologies : fossil fuel generation technologies are preferred because their investment risks are much lower in the market regime. So, in order to avoid delayed investment aiming at the decarbonisation of electricity systems, a number of new market arrangements which lower the investment risk of these technologies are being selected by governments. But, as these low carbon equipments develop, long term co-ordination by the market for the other technologies (peaking units, CCGT) will fade away. That means that in the future, public co-ordination and planning will completely replace market players' decisions, not only for low carbon technologies, but for every capacity development. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866417&r=ene |
| By: | Julie Rozenberg (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Stéphane Hallegatte (METEO-FRANCE - Météo-France - Météo France); Adrien Vogt-Schilb (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Olivier Sassi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Henri Waisman (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity. It shows that, in the context of a limited and uncertain amount of ultimately recoverable oil resources, climate policies reduce the world vulnerability to peak oil. Climate policies, therefore, appear as a hedging strategy against the uncertainty on oil resources, in addition to their main aim of avoiding dangerous climate change. This co-benefit is estimated at the net present value of US$11,500 billion. Eventually, reducing the risk of future economic losses due to oil scarcity may appear as a significant side-benefit of climate policies to many decision-makers. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866449&r=ene |
| By: | Vincent Gitz (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Philippe Ciais (LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - CNRS : UMR8212 - CEA : DSM/LSCE - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the timing of the use of biological carbon sequestration and its capacity to alleviate the carbon constraint on the energy sector. We constructed a stochastic optimal control model balancing the costs of fossil emission abatement, the opportunity costs of lands allocated to afforestation, and the costs of uncertain climate damages. We show that a minor part of the sequestration potential should start immediately as a 'brake', slowing down both the rate of growth of concentrations and the rate of abatement in the energy sector, thus increasing the option value of the emission trajectories. But, most of the potential is put in reserve to be used as a ''safety valve'' after the resolution of uncertainty, if a higher and faster decarbonization is required : sequestration cuts off the peaks of costs of fossil abatement and postpones the pivoting of the energy system by up to two decades. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866426&r=ene |
| By: | Oskar Lecuyer (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This article constitutes a new contribution to the analysis of overlapping instruments to cover the same emission sources. Using both an analytical and a numerical model, we show that when the risk that the CO2 price drops to zero and the political unavailability of a CO2 tax (at least in the European Union) are taken into account, it can be socially optimal to implement an additional instrument encouraging the reduction of emissions, for instance a renewable energy subsidy. Our analysis has both a practical and a theoretical purpose. It aims at giving economic insight to policymakers in a context of increased uncertainty concerning the future stringency of the European Emission Trading Scheme. It also gives another rationale for the use of several instruments to cover the same emission sources, and shows the importance of accounting for corner solutions in the definition of the optimal policy mix. Highlights : - We develop an analytical and a numerical model of the EU energy and carbon markets. - We add uncertainty on energy demand and focus on instruments for emission reduction. - We analyze the economic implications of a risk that the CO2 price drops to zero. - We show that it can be socially optimal to add an instrument to the EU-ETS. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866440&r=ene |
| By: | Sandrine Mathy (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Reference GHG emissions scenarios are critical for estimates of the costs of stabilization and for climate policy recommendations. But recently, existing reference scenarios, notably the SRES, have been the target of criticisms that question their relevance in the light of current emissions trends, dispute the suitability, for developing countries, of the modeling methodologies used and suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on an illustrative example on India. It proposes an alternative reference scenario built with a modeling framework representing as realistically as possible the processes driving energy intensity and carbon intensity changes, in particular accounting for the interactions between energy systems and economic constraints and capturing the sub-optimalities of the energy sector. The mechanisms leading to moderate energy decoupling in this alternative scenario are analysed. From a methodological point of view, our results call for the improvement of the realism of modeling tools for scenarios elaboration. From a mitigation point of view, it appears that the challenge for climate policies to lift the barriers to the diffusion of energy efficiency improvement in India is considerable, but we identify a potential for synergies between development policies and climate policies. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866443&r=ene |
| By: | Fabien Roques (EPRG - University of Cambridge); Olivier Sassi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Henri Waisman (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Renaud Crassous (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macroeconomic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the microeconomic and macroeconomic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866448&r=ene |
| By: | Flues, Florens; Löschel, Andreas; Lutz, Benjamin Johannes; Schenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Current climate and energy policy has to operate under an ex-ante unforeseen economic crisis. An obvious consequence is the collapse of prices for carbon emission allowances as, for example, seen in the European Union. However, this price collapse may be amplified by the interaction of a carbon emission cap and supplementary policy targets such as the minimum shares for renewables in the power sector. The static interaction between climate and renewable policies has been discussed extensively. This paper extends this debate by analysing how uncertain differences in medium to long-run growth rates affect the effciency and effectiveness of a policy portfolio containing an emission trading scheme and a target for a minimum renewable share. Making use of a simple partial equilibrium model we identify an asymmetric interaction of emissions trading and renewable quotas with respect to different growth rates of an economy. The results imply that unintended consequences of the policy interaction may be particularly severe and costly when economic growth is low and that carbon prices are more sensitive to changes in economic growth if they are applied in combination with renewable energy targets. Our main example for the policy interaction is the EU, yet our research also relates particularly well to the uncertainty of economic growth in fast growing emerging economies like China. -- |
| Keywords: | EU Climate Policy,Growth Uncertainty,Overlapping Regulation |
| JEL: | Q43 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13066&r=ene |
| By: | Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Although the building sector is recognized as having major potential for energy conservation and carbon dioxide emissions mitigation, conventional bottom-up and top-down models are limited in their ability to capture the complex economic and technological dynamics of the sector. This paper introduces a hybrid framework developed to assess future household energy demand in France. Res-IRF, a bottom-up module of energy consumption for space heating, has several distinctive features : (i) a clear separation between energy efficiency, i.e. investment in energy efficient technologies, and sufficiency, i.e. changes in the utilization of energy consuming durables which allows the rebound effect to be assessed ; (ii) the inclusion of barriers to energy efficiency in the form of intangible costs, consumer heterogeneity parameters and the learning-by-doing process ; (iii) an endogenous determination of retrofitting which represents trade-offs between retrofit quantity and quality. Subsequently, Res-IRF is linked to the IMACLIM-R computable general equilibrium model. This exercise shows that, compared to a 37% reduction in final energy demand achievable in business as usual in existing dwellings, an additional reduction of 14% could be achieved if relevant barriers to efficiency and sufficiency were overcome. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866425&r=ene |
| By: | Iris Butzlaff (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Nicole Grunewald (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Stephan Klasen (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | There is a large number of regional agreements concerning Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, often linked to other regional integration agreements. The most successful one in making effort in reducing carbon emissions is the Emission Trading System by the European Union (EU ETS). Apart from this exceptional agreement there are many others, which either focus directly on reducing GHG emissions or were embedded in another agreement. There is little known about the origin, the design or funding of those agreements. Therefore, we point to the potential contribution of those agreements in order to reduce GHG emissions and give an overview on the nature of those agreements to evaluate their success. We classify 15 agreements by their subject (technology / R&D, trade and finance) and examine their record to date. We find that the impact on mitigating climate change has been negligible to date, but the potential to contribute to mitigation climate change at the regional level is substantial. |
| Keywords: | Regional cooperation; climate change; mitigation |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 Q55 |
| Date: | 2013–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:152&r=ene |
| By: | Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Luc Bodineau (ADEME - Climate Department - ADEME); Dominique Finon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | White certificate schemes mandate energy companies to promote energy efficiency with flexibility mechanisms, including the trading of energy savings. A unified framework is used to estimate the costs and benefits of the schemes implemented in Great Britain in 2002, in Italy in 2005 and in France in 2006. "Negawatt-hour cost" estimates reach €0.009 per kWh saved in Great Britain and €0.037 per kWh saved in France, which compares favourably to energy prices in those countries. Moreover, the benefits of reduced energy bills and CO2 emissions saved exceed the costs, thus white certificate schemes pay for themselves. Overall, the policy instrument is cost-effective and economically efficient. A closer look at the differences among countries provides general insights about the conceptualization of the instrument : (i) compared to utility demand-side management, to which they are related, white certificate schemes provide more transparency about energy savings, but less transparency around costs ; (ii) the substantial efficiency discrepancy between the British scheme and its French counterpart can be explained by differences in technological potentials, coexisting policies and supply-side systems in these countries ; (iii) the nature and amount of costs influence compliance strategies. Notably, if energy suppliers are allowed to set their retail price freely, they tend to grant subsidies to end-use consumers for energy efficient investments. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866420&r=ene |
| By: | Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of French policies for residential space-heating energy consumption, both enacted (tax credits for the purchase of energy efficient durables, soft loans for retrofitting actions, stringent building codes) and anticipated (carbon tax, retrofitting obligation). It uses a hybrid energy-economy model incorporating specific features of energy conservation, notably the rebound effect and some "barriers" to energy efficiency such as split incentives and imperfect information. Forward-looking simulations show that (i) stand-alone policies improve the energy efficiency of the building stock but, with the exception of carbon tax, generate a rebound effect ; (ii) interactions among instruments are roughly additive ; (iii) a combination of all policies fails to meet Government conservation targets. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866424&r=ene |
| By: | Magali Dauvin |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and the real effective exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. We consider two sets of countries: 10 energy-exporting and 23 commodity-exporting countries over the period 1980-2011. Estimating a panel cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, we provide evidence for the existence of "energy currencies". Relying on the estimation of panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models, we show that there exists a certain threshold beyond which the real effective exchange rate of both energy and commodity exporters reacts to oil prices, through the terms-of-trade. More specifically, when oil price variations are low, the real effective exchange rates are not determined by terms-of-trade but by other usual fundamentals. Nevertheless, when the oil market is highly volatile, currencies follow an "oil currency" regime, terms-of-trade becoming an important driver of the real exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | energy prices;terms-of-trade;exchange rate;commodity-exporting countries;panel cointegration;nonlinear model;PSTR |
| JEL: | C33 F31 O13 Q43 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-28&r=ene |
| By: | Eric Borden; Wolf-Peter Schill |
| Abstract: | Recent developments in electricity markets such as the increased deployment of variable renewable generation have prompted renewed interest over the role of energy storage. While storage technologies can in principle provide various benefits for the functioning of an electrical grid, many energy storage technologies are in initial stages of development and demonstration. The role of public policy is thus vital for development and market integration of storage technology. We identify and discuss selected policy efforts by the United States of America and Germany with a focus on less-developed storage technologies. While research and demonstration of storage technologies has increased in both countries, we find that public funding is still small compared to overall energyrelated expenditures. Both countries use technology-push and market-pull approaches. Whereas the U.S. focuses on technologies which are useful to improve system stability, like batteries, capacitors, and flywheels, Germany has a stronger focus on bulk seasonal storage that may aid the integration of variable renewables, for example power to gas. We conclude that increased data-sharing and cooperation between the two governments and research institutions will help enhance the efficacy of both countries' publicly funded storage research. U.S. research institutions that link basic research with commercialization of technology, as well as developments in U.S. regulation of ancillary markets, may provide useful models for Germany. The U.S., on the other hand, may look to Germany's institutions as inspiration for its loan guarantee program. |
| Keywords: | Energy Storage, Technology-Push, Market-Pull, U.S., Germany |
| JEL: | Q38 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1328&r=ene |
| By: | Stéphanie Monjon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | The EU ETS has been criticised for threatening the competitiveness of European industry and generating carbon leakage, i.e. increasing foreign greenhouse gas emissions. Two main options have been put forward to tackle these concerns : border adjustments and output-based allocation, i.e. allocation of free allowances in proportion to current production. We compare various configurations of these two options, as well as a scenario with full auctioning and no border adjustment. Against this background, we develop a model of the main sectors covered by the EU ETS : electricity, steel, cement and aluminium. We conclude that the most efficient way to tackle leakage is auctioning with border adjustment, which generally induces a negative leakage (a spillover). Another relatively efficient policy is to combine auctioning in the electricity sector and output-based allocation in exposed industries, especially if free allowances are given both for direct and indirect emissions, i.e. those generated by the generation of the electricity consumed. Although output-based allocation is generally less effective than border adjustment to tackle leakage, it is more effective to mitigate production losses in the sectors affected by the ETS. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866444&r=ene |
| By: | A. Mantovani; C. Vergari |
| Abstract: | In this paper we compare two policy instruments that can be adopted to curb carbon emissions. The first is a conventional pollution tax. The second is an environmental campaign aiming to influence consumers to switch to a green good. We consider two different scenarios. When consumers are characterized by hedonic quality preferences, in this case the pollution tax is more efficient than the campaign. On the contrary, when consumers develop environmental quality preferences, there are cases in which the campaign is preferred. To sum up, while both policy instruments are effective in reducing pollution emissions, their efficiency viewed from a welfare perspective crucially depends on consumers' environmental awareness. |
| JEL: | D62 L13 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp906&r=ene |
| By: | Frédéric Branger (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Oskar Lecuyer (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), presented as the ''flagship'' of European climate policy, is subject to many criticisms from different stakeholders. Criticisms include the insufficient carbon emissions reduction, the competitiveness losses and the induced carbon leakages, the unfair distributional effects, the frauds and the existence of several other overlapping climate policy instruments. We review these criticisms and find the EU-ETS brought small but real abatements. The competitiveness losses and carbon leakages do not seem to have occurred. The distributional effects have indeed been unfair and fraud has been important. Finally, the scheme does not justify abandoning other climate policies. Some of these problems could have been avoided and can still be corrected by rethinking flexibility mechanisms and by adding some control over the carbon price. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866408&r=ene |
| By: | Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Stéphane Hallegatte (METEO-FRANCE - Météo-France - Météo France); Renaud Crassous (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R against macroeconomic data. To do so, it compares the modeled and observed responses of the Indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003-2006 period. The objective is twofold : first, to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in India's economy response to rising oil prices and, second, to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short-run statistical data. With default parametrization, the model predicts a significant decrease in the Indian growth rate that is not observed. However, this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the International Monetary Fund are introduced, namely the rise in exports of refined oil products, the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows, and the incomplete pass-through of the oil price increase to Indian customers. This work is a first step toward model validation, and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy's response to a shock, as well as on how short-term mechanisms - and policy action - can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866431&r=ene |
| By: | Renaud Crassous (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Olivier Sassi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper envisages endogenous technical change as resulting from the interplay between the economic growth engine, consumption, technology and localization patterns. We perform numerical simulations with the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R to study how modeling induced technical change affects costs of CO2 stabilization. IMACLIM-R incorporates innovative specifications about final consumption of transportation and energy to represent critical stylized facts such as rebound effects and demand induction by infrastructure and equipments. Doing so brings to light how induced technical change may not only lower stabilization costs thanks to pure technological progress, but also triggers induction of final demand - effects critical to both the level of the carbon tax and the costs of policy given a specific stabilization target. Finally, we study the sensitivity of total stabilization costs to various parameters including both technical assumptions as accelerated turnover of equipments and non-energy choices as alternative infrastructure policies. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866411&r=ene |
| By: | Henri Waisman (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Julie Rozenberg (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Olivier Sassi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Peak Oil refers to the future peak of world oil production and its impact on the economy. We assess its date, level and economic consequences using the general equilibrium model Imaclim-R. This framework captures the technical, geopolitical and macroeconomic determinants of Peak Oil, which emerges endogenously from their interplay under inertia and non-perfect expectations. A range of dates, from 2017 to 2039, is obtained, depending on assumptions about the reserves, the technical inertia affecting production and the market power of Middle-East producers. The bubble of oil export revenues associated with the post-Peak Oil increase of oil price and its economic consequences are also quantified. We delineate the space of parameters (discount rate ; degree of optimism about oil resources) under which a low short-term oil price may maximize the objective function of oil exporters (maximisation of oil rent, or of long term consumption). |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866451&r=ene |
| By: | Ben Gilbert; Joshua S. Graff Zivin |
| Abstract: | Digital tracking and the proliferation of automated payments have made intermittent billing more commonplace, and the frequency at which consumers receive price, quantity, or total expenditure signals may distort their choices. This category of goods has expanded from household utilities, toll road access and software downloads to standard consumption goods paid by credit card or other "bill-me-later"-type systems. Yet we know surprisingly little about how these payment patterns affect decisions. This paper exploits hourly household electricity consumption data collected by "smart" electricity meters to examine dynamic consumer behavior under intermittent expenditure signals. Households reduce consumption by 0.6% to 1% following receipt of an electricity bill, but the response varies considerably by household type and season. Our results also suggest that spending "reminders" can reduce peak demand, particularly during summer months. We discuss the implications for energy policy when intermittent billing combined with inattention induces consumption cycles. |
| JEL: | D03 Q4 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19510&r=ene |
| By: | Anna Khripunova (Senior Research Scientist, LLC “NIIGAZECONOMIKA”, Gazprom); Konstantin Vishnevskiy (Research fellow, Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg Karasev (Deputy Director, International Research and Educational Foresight Centre, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dirk Meissner (Deputy Head, Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In the last few years the world oil and gas industry has experienced a rapid development growing more strongly than many other industry branches. Modern oil and gas industry aims at the extraction of natural resources at an increasing scale. The growth of oil production is conditional upon developing new exploration fields to create auspicious investment conditions, stabilize national social and political life using and implementing state-of-the-art technologies. It is efficient and vital for oil and gas companies today to contract different companies and their competences and resources in the development of fields, oil and gas extraction, transport and refining. It allows incorporating cutting-edge know-how in extracting natural resources by means of implementing new scientific and technological solutions aimed at further leveraging profitability based on inter-company cooperation thus opening opportunities for economic and social development and improvement but also environmental protection and quality of life. The search for a suitable partner / contractor to perform the necessary duties is difficult and laborious, and usually realized in the form of a tendering process. The complicated nature of organizing tenders requires creating new means and instruments which are designed to improve the choice efficiency and reduce the term of decision making. As evidenced by world experience from other industries the most prospective decision in this field are made using Intelligent Data Systems. This article deals with structure of intelligent information systems aiding decision-making using the case of an electronic tender competition. In this paper we provide a new approach for tendering in the oil&gas industry. |
| Keywords: | tender procedure, system aiding decision-making, conflict situation, intelligent data analysis, oil and gas industry, purchase innovation |
| JEL: | M10 M11 M15 O31 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:wpbrp07sti2013&r=ene |
| By: | Böckers, Veit; Haucap, Justus; Heimeshoff, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the benefits of further market integration of European wholesale electricity markets. Major gains from trade are sill left unrealized due to (1) uncomplete market coupling of national wholesale markets, (2) isolated national regulation of capacity and reserve mechanisms (CRM) and (3) a lack of harmonization of national support schemes for renewable energies. -- |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:109&r=ene |
| By: | Adrien Vogt-Schilb (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | La pertinence des véhicules électrifiés (VE) pour diminuer les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) est sujette à débat. De nombreuses études fondent le calcul des émissions kilométriques des VE sur le contenu carbone de l'électricité contemporaine. Nous proposons une évaluation qui mobilise une vision cohérente de l'évolution du système énergétique dans lequel les VE doivent s'insérer. Nous utilisons un modèle de simulation prospective pour produire des scénarios contrastés de l'évolution du contenu carbone de l'électricité européenne. Cet exercice suggère que si l'Europe choisit de mettre en place des politiques climatiques destinées à réduire drastiquement ses émissions de GES, le contenu carbone de l'électricité va diminuer rapidement, prolongeant sur le long terme l'avantage actuel des VE sur les véhicules classiques en termes d'émissions par kilomètre. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866450&r=ene |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Nasreen, Samia; Ling, Chong Hui; Sbia, Rashid |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption using data of 91 high, middle and low income countries. The study covers the period of 1980-2010. We have applied panel cointegration and causality approaches for long run and causal relationship between the variables. Our results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables. The relationship between trade openness and energy consumption is inverted U-shaped in high income countries but U-shaped in middle and low income countries. The homogenous and non-homogenous causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between trade openness and energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Energy, Causality |
| JEL: | C4 |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50382&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Allegret; Cécile Couharde; Dramane Coulibaly; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980-2010 period, we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More specifically, oil price variations exert a positive impact on the current account position for less financially developed countries, while this influence tends to diminish when the degree of financial deepness augments. |
| Keywords: | current account; oil price; financial development; panel smooth transition regression models |
| JEL: | F32 C33 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2013-29&r=ene |
| By: | Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Dominique Finon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | White certificate schemes mandate energy companies to promote energy efficiency through flexibility mechanisms, including the trading of energy savings. They can be characterized as a quantity-based, baseline-and-credit system for the diffusion of energy efficient technologies. This paper offers a comprehensive comparison of experiences with white certificate schemes in Great Britain, Italy and France. Starting from the identification of the key drivers underlying each scheme, it proposes an original interpretation of this type of scheme as an adaptive instrument, in the sense that it can take different forms in response to specific institutional contexts. The analysis shows that schemes perform well in terms of static efficiency - they generate net social benefits over the period considered - though there are large discrepancies in cost-effectiveness due to various technical potentials across countries. They achieved mixed results regarding dynamic efficiency - the ability to induce and sustain technological change over the long run. Market transformation occurred in Great Britain, but was poorly incentivized in Italy and France due to inadequate compliance cost recovery rules. Substantial organisational change has occurred in every country, mainly by strengthening vertical relationships between obliged parties and upstream businesses. Overall, the obligation (rather than the market component) drives the early phases of the schemes. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866422&r=ene |
| By: | Nhan-T Nguyen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Sandra Greiner (Climate Focus - Climate Focus B.V.); Michael Mehling (Ecologic Institute - Ecologic Institute) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we assess the future prospects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of a developing country, drawing on Vietnam as a case study. First, we review the performance of the CDM and describe the evolution of carbon markets on the path towards a post-2012 climate regime. Next, we place Vietnam in a post-2012 context, and assess potential project resources, challenges, and opportunities that could arise for the country from a future climate policy framework. Our analysis suggests that the CDM should remain in place and be improved to facilitate more meaningful participation by developing countries in climate mitigation efforts beyond 2012. Finally, the article sets out eight proposals that could help improve the CDM as the world progresses towards a new international climate policy framework. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866446&r=ene |
| By: | Elmar Kriegler (Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Postdam Institute); Brian-C O'Neill (NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research - National Center for Atmospheric Research); Stéphane Hallegatte (METEO-FRANCE - Météo-France - Météo France); Tom Kram (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency); Richard-H Moss (Joint Global Change Research Institute - Joint Global Change Research Institute); Robert Lempert (RAND Corp - RAND Corp); Thomas J Wilbanks (ORNL - Oak Ridge National Laboratory - US Department of Energy - UI-Battelle) |
| Abstract: | Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies for mitigating GHG emissions on a global scale. Analyses of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities (IAV) depend heavily on assumptions about underlying socio-economic developments, but have employed socio-economic scenarios to a lesser degree, due mainly to the multitude of contexts and scales of such analyses. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual "no policy" scenarios would be an important step towards meeting this challenge. Such "Shared Socio-economic Pathways" (SSPs) should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between IAM and IAV researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions : climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the SSPs. For some applications, SSPs may have to be augmented by "Shared Climate Policy Assumptions" (SPAs) capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. Finally, sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions for the analysis of mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts may be assessed by locating the SSPs along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. We conclude that the development of SSPs, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between IAM and IAV researchers. This is likely to be a long-term and iterative enterprise comprising a collection of different activities : periodically taking stock of the evolving scenario work in both research communities, linking up individual efforts, and pursuing collaborative scenario work through appropriate platforms that still need to be established. In the short run, an important goal is to produce tangible outcomes that would allow the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC to take a more integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866437&r=ene |
| By: | Das Gupta, Monica |
| Abstract: | The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to rise rapidly in the developing world due to their economic growth and population growth -- the latter most notably in the poorest countries. Lowering fertility has many benefits for the poorest countries. Studies indicate that, in high fertility settings, fertility decline facilitates economic growth and poverty reduction. It also reduces the pressure on livelihoods, and frees up resources to cope with climate change. And it helps avert some of the projected global warming, which will benefit these countries far more than those that lie at higher latitudes and/or have more resources to cope with climate change. Natural experiments indicate that family planning programs are effective in helping reduce fertility, and that they are highly pro-poor in their impact. While the rest of the world wrestles withthe complexities of reducing emissions, the poorest countries will gain much from simple programs to lower fertility. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Health Monitoring&Evaluation |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6631&r=ene |
| By: | Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Renaud Crassous (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Olivier Sassi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Stéphane Hallegatte (METEO-FRANCE - Météo-France - Météo France) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the critical role of labour market imperfections in climate stabilisation costs formation. To do so, we use a dynamic recursive energy-economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. We show that the degree of rigidity of the labour markets is a central parameter and we conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis of the model results to this parameter. When labour markets are represented as highly flexible, the model results are in the usual range of existing literature, i.e. less than 2% GDP losses in 2030 for a stabilisation target at 450ppm CO2 equivalent. But when labour markets rigidities are accounted for, mitigation costs increase dramatically. In a second time, the article identifies accompanying measures, namely labour subsidies, which guarantees against the risk of large stabilisation costs in the case of high rigidities of the labour markets. That vision complements the usual view that mitigation is a long-term matter that depends on technology, innovation, investment and behavioural change. Here we add the warning that mitigation is also a shorter-term issue and a matter of transition on the labour market. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866429&r=ene |
| By: | Rafal Weron; Michal Zator |
| Abstract: | This work discusses potential pitfalls of applying linear regression models for explaining the relationship between spot and futures prices in electricity markets. In particular, the bias coming from the simultaneity problem, the effect of correlated measurement errors and the impact of seasonality on the regression results. Studying a 13-year long (1998-2010) price series of spot and futures prices at Nord Pool and employing regression models with GARCH residuals, we show that the impact of the water reservoir level on the risk premium is positive, which is to be expected, but contradicts the results of Botterud et al. (2010). We also show that after taking into account the seasonality of the water level, the storage cost theory proposed by Botterud et al. (2010) to explain the behavior of convenience yield has only limited support in the data. |
| Keywords: | Electricity market; Spot and futures prices; Risk premium; Convenience yield; |
| JEL: | C52 G13 G14 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1308&r=ene |
| By: | Ruben Bibas (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Aurélie Méjean (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | La poursuite des trajectoires de faible émission de CO2 à l'horizon 2100 peut dépendre de la production d'électricité à partir de la biomasse. Nous analysons l'effet de la disponibilité des ressources et des technologies de la biomasse avec et sans capture et stockage de carbone dans un cadre d'équilibre général. Les technologies de la biomasse sont introduites dans le module électricité du modèle d'équilibre général Imaclim-R. Nous évaluons la robustesse de cette technologie avec et sans capture et stockage de carbone, comme moyen d'atteindre l'objectif de stabilisation RCP 3.7. L'impact d'une taxe carbone uniforme sur les prix de l'énergie, les investissements et la structure du mix électricité est examiné. La croissance du PIB mondial est affectée par l'absence des options du CSC ou de la biomasse, et la biomasse apparait comme une réponse technologique à l'absence du CSC. Dans la mesure où l'utilisation de la biomasse à grande échelle peut s'avérer comme non soutenable, nous illustrons l'action précoce comme une stratégie de réduction des besoins de biomasse et d'amélioration de la croissance économique à long terme. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866407&r=ene |
| By: | Mazzanti, M.; Musolesi, A. |
| Abstract: | We study long run carbon emissions-income relationships for advanced countries grouped in policy relevant groups: North America and Oceania, South Europe, North Europe. By relying on recent advances on Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and adopting interaction models, we handle simultaneously three main econometric issues, named here as functional form bias, heterogeneity bias and omitted time related factors bias, which have been proved to be relevant but have been addressed separately in previous papers. The model incorporates nonlinear effects, eventually heterogeneous across countries, for both income and time. We also handle serial correlation by using autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. We find that country-specific time related factors weight more than income in driving the northern EU Environmental Kuznets. Overall, the countries differ more on their carbon-time relation than on the carbon-income relation which is in almost all cases monotonic positive. Once serial correlation and (heterogeneous) time effects have been accounted for, only three Scandinavian countries -- Denmark, Finland and Sweden -- present some threshold effect on the CO2-development relation. |
| Keywords: | ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE;SEMIPARAMETRIC MODELS;GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MIXED MODELS;INTERACTION MODELS |
| JEL: | C14 C23 Q53 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2013-08&r=ene |
| By: | Richard Schmalensee |
| Abstract: | Government subsidies have driven rapid growth in U.S. wind and solar generation. Using data on hourly outputs and prices for 25 wind and nine solar generating plants, some results of those subsidies are studied in detail: the value of these plants’ outputs, the variability of output at plant and regional levels, and the variation in performance among plants and regions. Output from solar plants was about 32% more valuable on average than output from wind plants. Output variability differs substantially among plants and, on some dimensions, among regions. Policy implications of high generation when prices are negative and dramatic differences in capacity factors are discussed. |
| JEL: | D24 L94 Q42 Q5 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19509&r=ene |
| By: | Pierre Berthaud (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II : EA4625); Tancrède Voituriez (MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR99 - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] - IAMM - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR1110) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we address the issue of the indeterminacy of climate change negotiations and examine the role played by the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) in this indeterminacy. Mobilising the analytical tools of international political economy (IPE), we show that changes in the distribution of power over the last 20 years explain the indeterminacy of negotiation outcomes far more than changes in political preferences, which have remained fairly stable. |
| Keywords: | climate change ; sustainable development ; international political economy ; international negotiation ; South Africa ; Brazil ; China ; India |
| Date: | 2013–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00868468&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Antonin Pottier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech, LPT - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique d'Orsay - CNRS : UMR8627 - Université Paris XI - Paris Sud); Etienne Espagne (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the growth model with environmental constraints recently presented in (Acemoglu et al., 2011) which focuses on the redirection of technical change by climate policies with research subsidies and a carbon tax. First, Acemoglu et al.'s model and chosen parameters yield numerical results that do not support the conclusion that ambitious climate policies can be conducted " without sacrificing (much or any) long-run growth ". Second, they select unrealistic key parameters for carbon sinks and elasticity of substitution. We find that more realistic parameters lead to very different results. Third, the model leads to an unrealistic conclusion when used to analyse endogenous growth, suggesting specification problems. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866435&r=ene |
| By: | Gary D. Libecap |
| Abstract: | Is there a way to understand why some global environmental externalities are addressed effectively whereas others are not? The transaction costs of defining the property rights to mitigation benefits and costs is a useful framework for such analysis. This approach views international cooperation as a contractual process among country leaders to assign those property rights. Leaders cooperate when it serves domestic interests to do so. The demand for property rights comes from those who value and stand to gain from multilateral action. Property rights are supplied by international agreements that specify resource access and use, assign costs and benefits including outlining the size and duration of compensating transfer payments and determining who will pay and who will receive them. Four factors raise the transaction costs of assigning property rights: (i) scientific uncertainty regarding mitigation benefits and costs; (ii) varying preferences and perceptions across heterogeneous populations; (iii) asymmetric information; and (iv) the extent of compliance and new entry. These factors are used to examine the role of transaction costs in the establishment and allocation of property rights to provide globally-valued national parks, implement the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), execute the Montreal Protocol to control emissions that damage the stratospheric ozone layer, set limits on harvest of highly-migratory ocean fish stocks, and control greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). |
| JEL: | D23 D62 H87 N5 Q2 Q3 Q38 Q5 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19501&r=ene |
| By: | Emmanuel Combet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Frédéric GHERSI (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Daniel Théry (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This research aims at clearing up misunderstandings about the distributive impacts of carbon taxes, which proved to be a decisive obstacle to their further consideration in public debates. It highlights the gap between partial equilibrium analyses, which are close to the agents' perception of the costs of taxation, and general equilibrium analyses, which better capture its ultimate consequences. It shows that the real impact on households' income inequality is not mechanically determined by the initial energy budgets and their flexibilities but also depends upon the way tax revenues are recycled and its general equilibrium consequences. The comparison of five tax-recycling schemes highlights the existence of trade-offs between maximizing total consumption, maximizing the consumption of the low-income classes and reducing income inequality. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866410&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Julie Rozenberg (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores links between global financial imbalances and tensions around reserve currency along with climate change. Currently, risky levels of private and public debts co-exist with vast amounts of savings which "do not know where to go." Long-term climate-oriented financial products could enhance investors' confidence in low carbon projects (LCP) and channel to them large amounts of private savings. The paper outlines a financial architecture, the cornerstone of which is an agreement on the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) integrated into a project's appraisal and acting as a surrogate for a carbon price. This SCC would be the value of carbon certificates issued by the government, and delivered to Banks to issue credit facilities reducing the risk-adjusted costs of LCPs. These carbon certificates could be gradually transformed into legal reserve assets of the Banks after verification of the reality of the projects. Finally, the paper considers whether such certificates would be recognized as genuine international reserve assets, backed by the rising value of carbon over time. It shows how emerging countries could then diversify their foreign exchange reserves through an asset based on the international recognition of climate as a global public good. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866434&r=ene |
| By: | Horn, Henrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Few EU decisions have caused more international outcry than the extension of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to apply to aviation. The directive was legally challenged by US airlines before a UK court, which referred the case to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for a preliminary ruling concerning the compatibility of the directive with international law. This paper discusses the argumentation by the ECJ and the Advocate General from an economic perspective. Such an analysis is warranted in light of the fact that the contested measure is an economic regulation, the international laws that are invoked have clear economic objectives, and the ECJ judgment and the opinion by the Advocate General at least partly rely on economic concepts and mechanisms. An economic analysis also seems warranted from a legal point of view since the quality of the judgment and of the opinion presumably depend on the soundness of their economic reasoning. It is found that the argumentation by the legal authorities is highly questionable in important parts, when viewed from an economic perspective. |
| Keywords: | EJC decision on aviation; ETS; Border carbon adjustment |
| JEL: | K31 K32 L93 |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0980&r=ene |
| By: | Sebastian Kopf (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Stéphane Hallegatte (METEO-FRANCE - Météo-France - Météo France) |
| Abstract: | We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators : Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866436&r=ene |
| By: | Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Nous étudions l'impact sur l'emploi en France de la mise en œuvre du scénario de transition énergétique construit par l'Association négaWatt (2011), qui prévoit un développement massif des économies d'énergie (par le biais de mesures de sobriété et d'efficacité énergétiques) et des énergies renouvelables entre 2012 et 2050. Par rapport à 2010, ce scénario aboutit à une division par deux des émissions de CO2 d'origine énergétique en France en 2030 et à une division par 16 en 2050, sans capture-stockage du CO2, sans mise en œuvre de nouvelle centrale nucléaire et en fermant les centrales existantes au bout de 40 ans d'exploitation au maximum. Nous calculons l'effet sur l'emploi de la mise en œuvre de ce scénario en comparaison avec un scénario tendanciel qui prolonge les évolutions récentes et prend en compte les politiques déjà décidées. La méthode retenue pour calculer l'effet sur l'emploi de chaque scénario consiste à calculer le coût des principales options techniques et organisationnelles retenues, à ventiler ces coûts entre les 118 branches de l'économie française et à multiplier ces coûts par le contenu en emploi de chaque branche. Ce dernier élément est estimé par une analyse input-output, ce qui permet de comptabiliser les emplois générés par la production de l'ensemble des consommations intermédiaires. L'un des deux scénarios étant plus coûteux que l'autre, il faut prendre en compte l'effet négatif sur l'emploi du financement de ce surcoût. Pour cela, on fait l'hypothèse que ce surcoût est supporté par les ménages et que ces derniers diminuent en conséquence leur consommation du même montant et de manière homothétique. Ainsi, on évite de biaiser les résultats en faveur du scénario le plus coûteux. La mise en œuvre du scénario négaWatt aboutit à un effet positif sur l'emploi, de l'ordre de +240 000 emplois équivalent temps-plein en 2020 et 630 000 en 2030. Nous étudions la sensibilité des résultats aux hypothèses sur les prix de l'énergie importée, l'évolution de la productivité du travail, la répartition du coût entre ménages et administrations publiques, et enfin l'arbitrage consommation-épargne. L'effet sur l'emploi reste largement positif dans tous les cas. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866447&r=ene |
| By: | Philippe Ambrosi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Pour évaluer les politiques climatiques dans un cadre coût-efficacité sous contraintes d'évolution du climat (amplitude du réchauffement et son rythme), nous avons développé RESPONSE_ ?, un modèle intégré de contrôle optimal. Nos résultats montrent que l'incertitude sur la sensibilité du climat implique de suivre une trajectoire d'émissions très contraignante à court terme, d'autant plus que l'information sur ce paramètre arrive tard. En raison de cette incertitude, un objectif comme +2°C pourrait donc impliquer une contrainte très lourde sur les émissions. Nous montrons en outre qu'il est encore plus important pour la décision de court terme de résoudre l'incertitude sur la contrainte de rythme que l'incertitude sur la sensibilité du climat ou l'amplitude du réchauffement. Il est donc urgent de poursuivre l'effort de recherche sur les risques du changement climatique afin de caractériser un garde-fou acceptable pour limiter le rythme du réchauffement. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866404&r=ene |
| By: | Dütschke, Elisabeth; Schneider, Uta; Peters, Anja |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) are currently seen as an important means to make transport more sustainable; however, so far, only a few EVs are actually on the roads. This paper tries to identify likely early private users of EVs based on a narrative review of results from earlier studies by the authors. Two usage scenarios are analyzed: (1) the traditional model of car use where the EV is bought or leased by the household whose members drive the vehicle (individual usage), and (2) concepts where EVs are used as part of shared fleets (collective usage). Findings indicate that, for both scenarios, likely early users are highly educated middle-aged men. Those who live with their family in rural or suburban regions seem to be more interested in owning an EV; for those living in urban areas, carsharing might be an attractive alternative. Other likely user groups are also discussed in the paper. -- |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s62013&r=ene |
| By: | Hooi Hooi Lean; Michael McAleer (University of Canterbury); Wing-Keung Wong |
| Abstract: | This paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD tests show that spot dominates futures in the downside risk, while futures dominate spot in the upside profit. On the other hand, the SD findings suggest that spot dominates futures in downside risk, while futures dominate spot in upside profit. Risk-averse investors prefer investing in the spot index. Risk seekers are attracted to the futures index to maximize their expected utility but not expected wealth in the entire period, as well as for both the OPEC and Iraq War sub-periods. The SD findings show that there is no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures markets, and these markets are not rejected as being efficient. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic dominance, mean-variance, risk averter, risk seeker, futures market, spot market. |
| JEL: | C14 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2013–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:13/30&r=ene |
| By: | Dominique Finon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | On analyse ici les propositions récentes de réorganisation de l'industrie française des réacteurs en vue d'accroître son efficacité à l'exportation. A partir d'une critique des choix de technologies offerts à l'export, le rapport Roussely recommandait de placer l'électricien national en chef de file libre de négocier la vente des réacteurs de son choix (dont des réacteurs Gen2) et de faire du constructeur français le sous-traitant du premier. Le gouvernement n'a pas suivi ces recommandations à juste titre. A partir d'une analyse du marché mondial des réacteurs en mutation, on relativise les critiques adressées à Areva sur ses choix ainsi que l'intérêt d'élargir le catalogue de réacteurs. Cette analyse permet de souligner l'importance des ressources technologiques et industrielles d'Areva dans la concurrence et l'avantage tout relatif des compétences d'architecte-ensemblier et d'exploitant de l'électricien national dans la conquête de marché à l'exportation. Au bout du compte, la démarche mercantile qui motivait les promoteurs de cette réforme en ambitionnant de concurrencer les entrants avec du nucléaire low cost a été désavouée par le gouvernement et ce avant même l'accident de Fukushima. Un peu plus de coordination à l'export serait juste nécessaire. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866416&r=ene |
| By: | Dominique Finon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | L'accident de Fukushima repose la question de la viabilité sociale et économique de la technologie nucléaire. Pour y répondre on analyse ici le processus d'internalisation des coûts externes du nucléaire qui se concrétise par une complexification permanente de la technologie et qui présente la particularité d'être scandé par des accidents majeurs. Il a contribué à désorganiser le processus d'apprentissage de la technologie et à mettre en question les préférences sociales pour finir par mettre en question sa compétitivité pour les investisseurs. Des institutions indépendantes de sûreté sont devenues une condition de son déploiement au risque de ne pas faciliter la stabilisation de la technologie, condition de sa viabilité économique. Dans cette perspective, l'article montre que la nouvelle séquence d'internalisation des coûts externes du nucléaire ouverte par Fukushima aura des effets limités sur les coûts, du fait des étapes antérieures d'approfondissement de la sûreté. La complexification de la technologie atteint une asymptote : on est en train de sortir du défi d'apprendre par des accidents. En revanche il faut arriver à garantir la sûreté maximale en s'attaquant à l'autre racine du problème, celui de l'indépendance et des compétences des autorités de sûreté dans tous les pays, ce qui ne se décrète pas. C'est pourtant à ce prix que sera préservé ce bien public mondial que constitue l'acceptation du nucléaire. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866419&r=ene |
| By: | Khalil Helioui (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une analyse économique de la coordination internationale contre le réchauffement planétaire intégrant les perspectives de long terme et les contraintes politiques. Il s'interroge ainsi sur les risques économiques et politiques auxquels les permis d'émission négociables pourraient être exposés du fait de pouvoirs de marché ou de distorsions dynamiques. Les seconds s'avèrent les plus difficiles à contrôler. Si la déconcentration des positions nationales est envisageable, aucun organisme international ne peut prétendre fixer, une fois pour toutes, les objectifs à long terme. Dès lors, anticipant que le montant des quotas futurs sera toujours ajusté au vu des tendances réelles, beaucoup de pays ne s'engageront pas dans des programmes structurels suffisamment ambitieux. Cela risque de compromettre l'efficacité de l'action climatique et de fragiliser plus encore le consensus qui lui est nécessaire. La solution alternative, la taxation internationale du carbone, ne présente pas de tels défauts d'incitation, mais elle pose des difficultés politiques. Une combinaison des deux instruments pourrait toutefois, à terme, s'avérer fructueuse. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866433&r=ene |
| By: | Patrice Dumas (CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD], CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Etienne Espagne (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Antonin Pottier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a comprehensive description of the integrated assessment model (IAM) RESPONSE developed at CIRED. RESPONSE aims at providing a consistent framework to appraise alternative modelling choices made by the main existing IAMs. It is designed as a flexible tool able to take different modelling structures in order to compare results from the modelling frameworks that have driven the so-called ''when flexibility'' controversy since the early 1990s dealing with the optimal timing of mitigation efforts and the optimal time profile of the social cost of carbon. RESPONSE is both sufficiently compact to be easily tractable and detailed enough to be as comprehensive as possible in order to capture a wide array of emblematic modelling choices, namely the forms of the damage function (quadratic vs. sigmoid) and the abatement cost (with or without inertia), the treatment of uncertainty, and the decision framework (one-shot vs. sequential). |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866414&r=ene |
| By: | Dominique Finon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | La croissance spectaculaire des marchés du photovoltaïque dans différents pays donne l'illusion d'un décollage commercial de cette technologie alors qu'elle se fonde sur le développement de marchés très subventionnés par des tarifs d'achat pour tirer le développement des capacités de fabrication photovoltaïque de grande taille dans ces pays. Les marchés n'existeraient pas sans elles. La France s'est alignée sur les autres pays dans l'espoir de construire une filière nationale tirée par le développement de ses débouchés nationaux Le choix et la conception du tarif d'achat pose trois problèmes. En premier lieu le tarif d'achat n'est pas le bon instrument par rapport au stade de progression de la technologie PV qui n'est pas encore au niveau pré-commercial, ce qui oblige à avoir des tarifs quatre à cinq fois plus élevés que ceux de l'éolien. Il serait préférable de renforcer l'effort de R&D sur toutes les filières et en particulier les filières couches minces bien moins avancées et de limiter le développement du marché à des programmes de type 10 000 toits PV par des subventions à l'investissement pour permettre un effort de démonstration. En second lieu, même en imaginant qu'il serait justifié de retenir cet instrument parce que l'on considèrerait que la technologie se situerait en phase pré-commerciale, le dispositif français est mal conçu sur quatre plans : - la longueur de l'engagement du tarif pour chaque nouvelle installation et l'absence de décroissance du tarif d'achat sur les 20 ans de l'engagement, - l'inutile ajout des aides à l'investissement avec crédits d'impôts, allègement de TVA, et au niveau des régions subventions à l'investissement et bonification d'emprunts, - l'absence de décroissance du tarif pour les nouvelles installations, alors que l'on pourrait déjà limiter les dépenses futures de ce dispositif par des baisses rapides qui accompagneraient l'évolution des coûts, - l'absence de distinction des tarifs entre filières de maturité différente pour les différents usages du PV, ce qui tend à pénaliser les filières couches minces et à contribuer au verrouillage technologique qui se dessine au plan mondial sur les techniques au silicium cristallin moins prometteuses. En troisième lieu l'objectif industriel de construire une filière photovoltaïque en France en tirant le développement d'un marché interne par ces tarifs ne sera jamais atteint dans le contexte de concurrence globalisée, sachant que les industries de quelques pays se sont placées en tête grâce à des politiques d'appui plus précoces. Le dispositif va engager de façon croissante l'argent des consommateurs français d'électricité sur une période de 20 ans sans faire décoller l'industrie française sur le Si cristallin. Le dispositif va servir à subventionner les industries des autres pays (Japon, Allemagne, Etats-Unis et maintenant Chine). Un programme ambitieux de subventions à la R&D et de subventions à l'investissement ciblé sur les technologies couches minces et privilégiant les producteurs français dans une logique de démonstration apparaît être une solution beaucoup plus efficace à moyen et long terme. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866415&r=ene |
| By: | Emmanuel Combet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Frédéric GHERSI (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à dissiper les malentendus sur les impacts distributifs de taxes carbone, malentendus qui constituent un obstacle jusqu'ici dirimant à leur plus ample examen dans les débats publics. Il met en évidence l'écart entre les analyses en équilibre partiel, proches de la perception du coût de la fiscalité par les agents, et les analyses en équilibre général qui cernent la réalité de son coût ultime. Il montre que l'impact réel sur les écarts de revenu entre ménages n'est pas mécaniquement déterminé par les budgets énergie de départ et leur degré de flexibilité et qu'il dépend des modalités de recyclage du produit des taxes et de leurs effets macro-économiques. La comparaison de cinq dispositifs de recyclage met en évidence des zones d'arbitrage entre maximisation de la consommation globale, maximisation de la consommation des populations à bas revenus et réduction des inégalités. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866409&r=ene |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Ana-Sofia Campos (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Alain Nadai (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | An awareness and opinion survey on Carbon Capture and Storage was conducted on a representative sample of French aged 15 years and above. About 6\% of respondents were able to provide a satisfying definition of the technology. The key question about 'approval of or opposition to' the use of CCS in France was asked twice, first after presenting the technology, then after exposing the potential adverse consequences. Approval rates, 59\% and 38\%, show that there is no a priori rejection of the technology, but public trust needs to be build. The sample was split in two to test for a semantic effect : questioning one half about 'Stockage' (English : storage), the other about 'Sequestration'. Manipulating the vocabulary had no statistically significant effect on approval rates. Stockage is more meaningful, but does not convey the idea of permanent monitoring. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866557&r=ene |
| By: | Xu, Hangtian; Nakajima, Kentaro |
| Abstract: | In response to the high mortality rates and low productivity in coal mining, China began regulating coal mines in the 1990s, which has reshaped its coal economy. We empirically investigate the relationship between coal mine regulation and economic growth in China. Using two difference-in-difference approaches to compare the pre- and post-regulation periods, as well as regions with and without rich coal endowment, we find that regulation positively affects regional economy. This result is further illustrated using an OLS estimation that uses mortality rate in coal mining as a proxy for measuring the quality of regulation. The impacts are not limited only to the intra-coal industry but also spillover to the economy of related regions by relieving the crowding-out effects of coal abundance, that is, resource abundance tends to crowd out investment, human capital and innovation in non-resource sectors and thus hinders economic growth. |
| Keywords: | coal mine regulation, crowding-out effects, mortality rate, resource curse, regional development |
| JEL: | L71 O43 P28 Q32 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:primdp:45&r=ene |