nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2013‒08‒05
25 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The Way to CO2 Emission Reduction and the Co-benefits of Local Air Pollution Control in China's Transportation Sector: A Policy and Economic Analysis By Mao Xianqiang; Yang Shuqian; Liu Qin
  2. Price Discontinuities in Energy Spot and Futures Prices By Svetlana Maslyuka; Kristian Rotarub; Alexander Dokumentovc
  3. A Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment, Clean Energy, Trade Openness, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth to Energy Demand in UAE By Sbia, Rashid; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hamdi, Helmi
  4. Economic Analysis of Multi-pollutant Control in Coal-Fired Electricity Plants in China By Wu Dan; Xie Xuxuan
  5. Power System Transformation towards Renewables: An Evaluation of Regulatory Approaches for Network Expansion By Jonas Egerer; Juan Rosellón; Wolf-Peter Schill
  6. Innovation in the energy sector By Klaus Friesenbichler
  7. Revisiting Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis By Nayan, Sabri; Kadir, Norsiah; Ahmad, Mahyudin; Abdullah, Mat Saad
  8. Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models By Arora, Vipin
  9. Banking and price containment in California\'s greenhouse gas emissions market: an experimental analysis of market design By Charles A. Holt; William M. Shobe
  10. Endogenous Shifts in OPEC Market Power: A Stackelberg Oligopoly with Fringe By Daniel Huppmann
  11. Factors influencing energy intensity in four Chinese industries By Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Hu, Yong; Jefferson, Gary; Rock, Michael; Toman, Michael
  12. Using the Box-Cox transformation to approximate the shape of the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP: a note By Mariana Conte Grand; Vanesa D´Elia
  13. Distant Event, Local Effects? Fukushima and the German Housing Market By Thomas K. Bauer; Sebastian Braun; Michael Kvasnicka
  14. Understanding the link between aggregated industrial production and the carbon price By Julien Chevallier
  15. Prices, Politics and Persuasion: The Case of Pollution Control and Clean Technology Adoption By Wenli Cheng; Dingsheng Zhang; CEMA, Central University of Finance and Economics
  16. Carbon Credit-Currency of 21st Century By Parul Chotalia
  17. Efficiency and Environmental Factors in the US Electricity Transmission Industry By Llorca, Manuel; Orea, Luis; Pollitt, Michael
  18. Exploiting Zero-Inflated Consumption Data using Propensity Score Matching and the Infrequency of Purchase Model, with Application to Climate Change Policy By Bardsley, Nicholas; Buechs, Milena
  19. Gold, Oil, and Stocks By Jozef Barunik; Evzen Kocenda; Lukas Vacha
  20. A System Dynamics Study of Uranium and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle By Rooney, Matthew; Nuttall, William J.; Kazantzis, Nikolas
  21. Gasoline price as social phenomenon By Kossov, Vladimir; Kossova, Elena
  22. Well-being effects of a major negative externality: The case of Fukushima By Katrin Rehdanz; Heinz Welsch; Daiju Narita; Toshihiro Okubo
  23. L'énergie dans les écoquartiers : quels systèmes énergétiques et quels acteurs ? Une comparaison France - Europe By Philippe Menanteau; Odile Blanchard
  24. Endogenous Price Commitment, Sticky and Leadership Pricing: Evidence from the Italian Petrol Market By Andreoli-Versbach, Patrick; Franck, Jens-Uwe
  25. Petrole : statu quo By Céline Antonin

  1. By: Mao Xianqiang (Institute of Environmental Sciences, Beijing Normal University); Yang Shuqian (Institute of Environmental Sciences, Beijing Normal University); Liu Qin (Institute of Environmental Sciences, Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: The transportation sector in China has joined the power generation and the steel and iron industries as a major CO2emission contributor. To determine which policy instrument(s) would be effective in reducing CO2emissions, various policy instruments which have been or are likely to be implemented in the near future in China are examined and compared in this study. These instruments include carbon tax, energy tax, fuel tax, clean energy vehicle subsidy, and a reduction on ticket prices. The CIMS model system is employed as the simulation vehicle to predict the emission dynamics of CO2and local air pollutants under business-as-usual and policy scenarios for the transportation sector of China from 2008 to 2050. The 2020 CO2 reduction target is also set according to the national carbon intensity reduction pledge of China. The policy instruments proposed in this research study can all help mitigate the CO2emission intensity of the Chinese transportation industry to different extents and bring about the co- benefits of local air pollutant reduction. Among these policy instruments,energy and fuel taxes, with the tax rates set, are the two most promising instruments for CO2emission intensity reduction to reach the 2020 carbon intensity reduction targets while subsidies are the least promising options. CO2tax could be an effective policy tool, but with the low tax rate considered in China, there is no way that the transportation sector would significantly contribute to achieving a desirable carbon intensity reduction. The CIMS model is applied to simulate and determine how CO2, energy, and fuel taxation can stimulate technology competition and substitution in the transportation sector of China and to ascertain how these taxes will influence energy consumption and pollutant emissions reduction.
    Keywords: pollution, CO2 emission, China
    Date: 2013–03
  2. By: Svetlana Maslyuka; Kristian Rotarub; Alexander Dokumentovc
    Abstract: How often do jumps or price discontinuities occur on energy markets? What is the dynamics of the energy market sentiment (based on media coverage of economic fundamentals and other news events) that influence market behavior? How does the market sentiment affect the commodity returns? This study answers these questions by first, investigating jumping behavior of daily energy spot and nearest month futures returns for crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, heating oil and propane and second, by proposing a novel Cumulative Sentiment Index applied to the analysis of the detected jumps in returns. Our findings confirm previous studies that jumps are the common feature for all energy commodities studied. For some commodities such as gasoline spot and futures and heating oil futures, the average number of jumps per year has increased after the start of the Global Financial Crisis.
    Keywords: jumps, energy prices, sentiment, nonparametric tests
    JEL: C14 G12
    Date: 2013–07
  3. By: Sbia, Rashid; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hamdi, Helmi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment, clean energy, trade openness, carbon emissions and economic growth in case of UAE covering the period of 1975Q1-2011Q4. We have tested the unit properties of variables in the presence of structural breaks. The ARDL bounds testing approach is applied to examine the cointegration by accommodating structural breaks stemming in the series. The VECM Granger causality approach is also applied to investigate the causal relationship between the variables. Our empirical findings confirm the existence of cointegration between the series. We find that foreign direct investment, trade openness and carbon emissions decline energy demand. Economic growth and clean energy has positive impact on energy consumption.
    Keywords: Clean Energy, FDI, Emissions, Trade, Income
    JEL: E1
    Date: 2013–07–19
  4. By: Wu Dan (Peking University); Xie Xuxuan (Peking University)
    Abstract: China is experiencing severe complex air pollution and huge greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a result of its booming economy over the last 30 years. In order to control air pollution, multiple pollutants should be targeted simultaneously. To cope with current international climate change problems, GHG emissions reduction should be considered alongside air pollution control. In the past 30 years conventional air pollution control strategy in China has focused on controlling one pollutant over a period of time, followed by controlling another pollutant in the next period. However, total emissions reduction of a single pollutant does not proportionally improve urban ambient air quality. In this study, single pollutant control strategy (SPC) is defined as an air pollution control strategy that sets pollutant reduction targets one by one. Multiple pollutant control (MPC) is defined as a strategy that sets multiple pollutant reduction targets at the same time. Under SPC polluters choose control technologies with less flexibility, which can lead to higher costs compared to MPC. In this study we show the difference between SPC and MPC, focusing on the coal-fired electricity sector. Our results show that end-of-pipe technology schemes for coal-fired power plants under MPC are more cost-effective than SPC. At plant level, compared to SPC, MPC sacrifices 7% of SO2 removal but provides a 6% and 9% increase in NOX and Hg removal respectively, and costs less than SPC. At sector level, MPC sacrifices 2 million tonnes of SO2 reduction per year but improves PM reduction by 1 million tonnes and increases Hg reduction by 34.5 tonnes per year. These reductions cost 8 billion CNY per year less than SPC. If coal washing were to be added to 20% of the sector’s installed capacity, based on MPC, then more than10 million tonnes of SO2, 56 million tonnes of PM and 55 tonnes of Hg could be further reduced every year, with a total cost of6 billion CNY a year less than SPC. If PM and Hg cause more damage per unit than SO2, then MPC reduces more damage for the same cost or for a reduced total cost. Substituting small units with advanced coal combustion technologies under MPC has the advantage of controlling multiple pollutant emissions as early as possible, especially taking CO2 emissions control into account. Suggestions are given to support China’s pollution control strategy transition. Turning from a SPC strategy to a MPC strategy, the key elements of a pollution control scheme for China’s coal-fired power sector should be: high priority should be given to coal washing; the installation of end-of-pipe technologies should be compared with advanced coal combustion plants for plants of a regular or small size (300MW); plants which have not installed wet FGD should consider other desulfurization facilities because desulfurization facilities with better removal effects for other pollutants (except SO2) are of use; and regulation should be strengthened to ensure the technical performance of installed equipment rather than just pursuing a high installation ratio.
    Keywords: pollution, China
    Date: 2013–02
  5. By: Jonas Egerer; Juan Rosellón; Wolf-Peter Schill
    Abstract: We analyze various regulatory regimes for electricity transmission investment in the context of a transformation of the power system towards renewable energy. We study distinctive developments of the generation mix with different implications on network congestion, assuming that a shift from conventional power plants towards renewables may go along with exogenous shocks on transmission requirements, which may be either of temporary or permanent nature. We specifically analyze the relative performance of a combined merchant-regulatory price-cap mechanism, a cost-based rule, and a non-regulated approach in dynamic generation settings. Through application in a stylized two-node network, we find that incentive regulation may perform satisfactorily only when appropriate weights are used. While quasi-ideal weights generally restore the beneficial properties that incentive regulatory mechanisms are well-known for in static settings, pure Laspeyres weights may either lead to overinvestment (stranded investments) or delayed investments as compared to the welfare optimum benchmark. Stranded investments could then be avoided through proper handling of weights. Model results indicate that using average Laspeyres-Paasche weights appears to be an appropriate strategy in the context of permanently or temporarily increasing network congestion. Our analysis motivates further research aimed to characterize optimal regulation for transmission expansion in the context of renewable integration.
    Keywords: Electricity transmission, incentive regulation, renewable integration, Laspeyres/Paasche weights, ideal weights
    JEL: Q40 Q42 L51
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Klaus Friesenbichler
    Abstract: This study analyses the diffusion of renewable energy (RE) technologies. It analyses the transition dynamics as the sector broadens its energy mix and changes its capital stock. This shift is found to be desirable from an environmental, geopolitical and economic perspective. Yet, it greatly increases the technical and industrial complexity, and is not Pareto-efficient. We focus on wind and solar power, and discuss their promoted deployment against the energy policy principles of the EU. Put drastically, the promotion of ‘sustainability’ undermined ‘competitive’ mechanisms. This has potentially adverse effects on the ‘security of supply’ due to the market design that seeks to keep prices low. RE outperforms conventional facilities. Emergency capacities, however, are also exiting, especially in Germany. If markets are seen as one, there seems to be a threshold of wind and solar power that the current back-up system can incorporate without risking the security of supply. The policy relevant crux lies in conflicting mechanisms: the top-down promotion and planning policies undermine the bottom-up market selection. Then again, without interventions the market does not provide the socially desired outcomes. If tensions aggravate further, the implementation of the new technology base is likely to stall. In addition, the generous promotion resulted in the fast deployment of RE, which may have shortened the ‘formative phase’ of the diffusion process. A longer formative phase would have created more learning effects and fostered more incremental innovations. In addition, costs of subsidies are allocated differently across countries. Mechanisms that allocate costs to the public budget have greater acceptance rates than budget neutral ones that assign costs to consumers. The latter affect households asymmetrically across income classes. Also ownership structures changed; a large number of actors now constitute the energy sector. Citizens increasingly appeared as producers and investors, which stimulated the social acceptance of RE, and in some cases unlocked initially unfavourable vested interests.
    Keywords: Cost incidence, diffusion, ecological innovation, economic strategy, electricity, European economic policy, industrial innovation, industrial policy, innovation, innovation policy, institutional reforms, multi-level governance, new technologies, ownership, policy options, renewable energy, security of supply, smart meter, social construction of technology, social innovation, sustainable growth, technology promotion
    JEL: O31 O33 P48 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2013–07
  7. By: Nayan, Sabri; Kadir, Norsiah; Ahmad, Mahyudin; Abdullah, Mat Saad
    Abstract: In recent years the issues of energy consumption and economic development have become the concern of many parties, particularly policy makers. The empirical outcomes of previous studies examining the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth have been inconclusive and conflicting due to different sample periods, variables used, countries studied and econometric techniques employed. Utilising dynamic panel data GMM-system estimator on datasets of selected 23 countries across 12 years ranging from 2000-2011, this paper shows evidence of uni-directional causality between energy consumption and GDP. In energy consumption model, the GDP is found to significantly determine energy consumption, whereas in the GDP model, energy consumption has however less significant effect on GDP. Energy price and investment are the other important determinants of energy consumption and income, respectively.
    Keywords: Energy consumption; Economic growth; Panel Data Analysis; System GMM.
    JEL: O13 Q4
    Date: 2013–07–30
  8. By: Arora, Vipin
    Abstract: I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models and generate long-term forecasts [2010-2040] for comparison with the International Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other similar publications. For both countries the forecasting models predict higher levels and growth rates of energy consumption than the published estimates.
    Keywords: energy consumption, forecast, projection, China, India
    JEL: C53 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2013–07
  9. By: Charles A. Holt (University of Virginia); William M. Shobe (University of Virginia)
    Abstract: We use a set of economic experiments to test the effects of two key features of California\'s new program for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The cap & trade scheme included in the program includes two novel features, limits on allowance ownership (or \'holding limits\') and a tiered price containment reserve sale. These program features are linked by their potential to affect liquidity in the market for emission allowances. We examine the effects of these features on liquidity and on measures of market performance including efficiency, price discovery, and price variability. We find that tight holding limits have the effect of substantially lowering the number of banked allowances available for trade, hence lowering liquidity. This impairs the ability of traders to smooth prices over time resulting in lower efficiency, less effective price discovery, and higher variability in price. The price containment reserve, while increasing the supply of allowances available to traders, does not appear to mitigate the effects of tight holding limits on market outcomes. As a result, the imposition of holding limits in the allowance market may have the consequence of increasing the likelihood of the market manipulation that they were intended to prevent.
    Keywords: Emission markets; climate change; cap and trade
    JEL: Q54 Q58 H
    Date: 2013–07–30
  10. By: Daniel Huppmann
    Abstract: This article proposes a two-stage oligopoly model for the crude oil market. In a game of several Stackelberg leaders, market power increases endogenously as the spare capacity of the competitive fringe goes down. This effect is due to the specific cost function characteristics of extractive industries. The model captures the increase of OPEC market power before the financial crisis and its drastic reduction in the subsequent turmoil at the onset of the global recession. The two-stage model better replicates the price path over the years 2003-2011 compared to a standard simultaneous-move, onestage Nash-Cournot model with a fringe. This article also discusses how most large-scale numerical equilibrium models, widely applied in the energy sector, over-simplify and potentially misinterpret market power exertion.
    Keywords: crude oil, OPEC, oligopoly, Stackelberg market, market power, consistent conjectural variations, equilibrium model
    JEL: C61 C72 L71
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Hu, Yong; Jefferson, Gary; Rock, Michael; Toman, Michael
    Abstract: Energy intensity has declined significantly in four Chinese industries -- pulp and paper; cement; iron and steel; and aluminum. While previous studies have identified technological change within an industry to be an important influence on energy intensity, few have examined how industry-specific policies and market factors also affect industry-level intensity. This paper employs unique firm-level data from China's most energy-intensive large and medium-size industrial enterprises in each of these four industries over a six-year period from 1999 to 2004. It empirically examines how China's energy-saving programs, liberalization of domestic markets, openness to the world economy, and other policies, contribute to the decline in energy intensity in these industries. The results suggest that rising energy costs are a significant contributor to the decline in energy intensity in all four industries. China's industrial policies targeting scale economies -- for example,"grasping the large, letting go off the small"-- also seem to have contributed to reductions in energy intensity in these four industries. However, the results also suggest that trade openness and technology development led to declines in energy intensity in only one or two of these industries. Finally, the analysis finds that energy intensities vary among firms with different ownership types and regional locations.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Water and Industry,E-Business
    Date: 2013–07–01
  12. By: Mariana Conte Grand; Vanesa D´Elia
    Abstract: With CAIT WRI data for those countries which submitted quantifiable CO2 emission caps under the Copenhagen Agreement, this note supports the existence of a long run relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP in 11 of the 26 countries in our sample over the period 1980-2008. However, the functional specification of that relationship is not homogenous among nations, being linear for 2 countries, log-log for 2 other cases, while the relationship follows a Box-Cox functional form for 7 nations. Elasticities of the emissions-income relationship also differ among counties. But in most cases (8 out of 11), the magnitude of the average elasticity is less than 1 (emissions increase less than GDP).
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, sustainable development, Box-Cox
    JEL: Q01 Q54
    Date: 2013–07
  13. By: Thomas K. Bauer; Sebastian Braun; Michael Kvasnicka
    Abstract: The Fukushima Daiichi accident in Japan in March 2011 caused a fundamental change in Germany's energy policy which led to the immediate shut down of nearly half of its nuclear power plants. This paper uses data from Germany's largest internet platform for real estate to investigate the effect of Fukushima on the German housing market. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that Fukushima reduced house prices near nuclear power plants that were in operation before Fukushima by almost 6%. House prices near sites that were shut down right after the accident even fell by 10.8%. Our results suggest that economic reasons are of prime importance for the observed fall in house prices near nuclear power plants
    Keywords: Fukushima,Nuclear Power Plants,Housing Prices,Germany
    JEL: R31 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2013–07
  14. By: Julien Chevallier (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université Paris X - Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense)
    Abstract: This chapter assesses the extent to which economic activity and the carbon price are linked. Carbon price drivers can be mainly related to energy and institutional variables. However, the influence of the macroeconomic environment shall not be undermined. Various approaches exist in the literature, which favor financial market variables over macroeconomic variables. Following a review of the state of the EU ETS, the main channel of transmission between the variation of macroeconomic activity and the carbon price is recalled, by using the aggregated industrial production as a proxy. An original empirical application unfolds, by studying the carbon-macroeconomy relationship in the threshold VAR model during 2005-2013. Further research is called upon in nonlinear econometrics.
    Keywords: Carbon Price ; Economic Activity ; Industrial Production ; Nonlinear Time Series
    Date: 2013–07
  15. By: Wenli Cheng; Dingsheng Zhang; CEMA, Central University of Finance and Economics
    Abstract: This paper presents three simple models to study how prices, politics and persuasion may each play a role in environmental policymaking. Our conclusions are twofold. First, in the absence of increasing returns, requiring the polluting industry to purchase pollution permits can internalize the negative externality of pollution, and the optimal price of pollution permits should increase with the disutility of pollution. Second, with increasing returns in the industry using clean technologies, it is welfare enhancing to complement the pollution permits policy with a tax-funded subsidy to the clean industry, or with a tax-funded public campaign to persuade consumers to move away from the pollution generating goods.
    Keywords: pollution permits, increasing returns; advertising
    JEL: D83 H23
    Date: 2013–07
  16. By: Parul Chotalia
    Abstract: In 1997, Kyoto Protocol, a voluntary treaty was signed by 141 countries to reduce the emissions of Global House Gases by 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2012. Certified Emissions Reductions (CER) or Carbon credits are certificates issued certifying reduction in emissions. The developing countries have been exempted from any such restrictions. These certificates can be traded in the market and purchased by firms which find purchasing emission credits to offset its emissions lower in cost. Thus an opportunity has emerged for firms in developing countries like India, Brazil and China to boost their earnings by complying with norms. However not all projects are eligible for registration under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol. As a result a large number of advisory firms have spawned. In addition an entire market has been developed around the same. The key participants apart from the project developers are, including not limited to, verification, certification and financing institutions. In India this opportunity has manifold implications affecting not only industry but also government, financial institutions and civil society at large. Most importantly this has opened up a new source of cash flow in project financing making unviable projects viable by exceeding the hurdle rate for investment returns. Industry will need to adapt to the changing opportunity that it brings along i.e. higher return on investments along with risks that are inherent in carbon credit project financing. In my opinion, it will be pragmatic on part of firms to consider this mode of cash flows in project financing. Further this provides a strategic role for the countries to benefit from the cash flows that can be invested in cleaner technologies for sustainable development. Key words: Carbon credits, Emission, Certified Emissions Reductions (CER), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
    Date: 2013–06
  17. By: Llorca, Manuel; Orea, Luis; Pollitt, Michael
    Abstract: The electricity industry in most developed countries has been restructured over recent decades with the aim of improving both service quality and firms’ performance. Regulated segments (e.g. transmission) still provide the infrastructure for the competitive segments and represent a notable amount of the total price paid by final customers. However there is a lack of empirical studies that analyze firms’ performance in the electricity transmission sector. We conduct an empirical analysis of the US electricity transmission companies for the period 2001-2009. We use stochastic frontier models that allow us to identify determinants of firms’ inefficiency and to control for weather conditions, potentially one of the most decisive uncontrollable factors in electricity transportation. Our results suggest that there is room for improvement in the performance of the US electricity transmission system. Regulators should also take into account that more adverse conditions generate higher levels of inefficiency and that achieving long-term efficiency improvements tends to deteriorate firms’ short-term relative performance.
    Keywords: electricity transmission, heteroscedastic stochastic cost frontiers, inefficiency determinants
    JEL: D22 L51 L94
    Date: 2013–05–30
  18. By: Bardsley, Nicholas; Buechs, Milena
    Abstract: We apply propensity score matching (PSM) to the estimation of household motor fuel purchase quantities, to tackle problems caused by infrequency of purchase. The results are compared to an alternative, regression-based, imputation strategy using the infrequency of purchase model (IPM). Using data from the UK’s National Travel Survey (NTS) we observe that estimated mean obtained from the PSM imputation is closer to the estimated mean from the consumption diary, than that obtained from fitted values from the IPM. The NTS also contains an interview question on household mileage which can be used to assess the results of imputation. We find that the order statistics of the imputed distribution are more plausible for the PSM estimates than those obtained using the IPM, judging by the sample distribution of household mileage. We argue that there are some applications for which the PSM method is likely to be superior, including estimates of distributional effects of policies. On the other hand, the IPM is more suitable for analysing conditional effects and associations of consumption with covariates. We illustrate our arguments using a simple microsimulation exercise on CO2 emissions reduction policies, an area where methods for coping with zero-inflated data seem currently to be under-used.
    Keywords: propensity score matching, purchase infrequency, climate policy
    JEL: C4 D12 Q58
    Date: 2013
  19. By: Jozef Barunik; Evzen Kocenda; Lukas Vacha
    Abstract: We analyze the dynamics of the prices of gold, oil, and stocks over 26 years (1987-2012) using both intra-day and daily data and employing a variety of methodologies including a novel time-frequency approach. We account for structural breaks and show radical change in correlations between assets after the 2007-2008 crisis in terms of time-frequency behavior. No strong evidence for a specific asset leading any other one emerges and the assets under research do not share the long-term equilibrium relationship. Strong implication is that after the structural change gold, oil, and stocks cannot be used together for risk diversification.
    Date: 2013–08
  20. By: Rooney, Matthew; Nuttall, William J.; Kazantzis, Nikolas
    Abstract: To advance current knowledge of the uranium market, a system dynamics model of the nuclear fuel cycle for the time period 1988 to 2048 has been developed. The proposed framework of analysis illustrates some of the key features of the market for this commodity, including the role that time lags play in the formation of price volatility. Various demand reduction and substitution strategies and technologies are explored, and potential external shocks are simulated to investigate how price and the associated industry respond. Sensitivity analysis performed by considering key model parameters indicates that the time constant related to the formation of traders’ expectations of future market prices embedded in the proposed price discovery mechanism has a strong influence on both the amplitude and frequency of price peaks. One particularly interesting and timely scenario simulated is the possibility of the ending of the “Megatons to Megawatts” program, in which the USA agreed to buy down-blended uranium from former Soviet nuclear warheads for use in power production. This agreement has not been formally renewed and we find that in the absence of new substitute sources this could cause a significant rise in uranium prices. Finally, our analysis leads us to believe that uranium resource scarcity will not pose any significant challenges until the second half of the twenty first century at the earliest, even if high uranium demand projections are realized.
    Keywords: System dynamics, uranium mining, nuclear fuel cycle, uranium market dynamics, sensitivity analysis
    Date: 2013–06–01
  21. By: Kossov, Vladimir; Kossova, Elena
    Abstract: The gasoline price transform into the social phenomenon by its role in economy. For the state, it is a source of budget revenue through indirect taxes, which in majority of countries make up most of the price. The upper bound of a gasoline price is limited by risk of mass protests. For the citizens a gasoline price affects the cost of living. The lower bound of this price is limited to possibility of the authorities to subsidize it. Balances of interests of the authorities and citizens are estimated for the gasoline prices deviating from the normal. Normal gasoline prices are offered as standard, with respect to which of the actual prices can distinguish high and low. We propose an econometric model for the estimation of the normal price. The analysis of the results of estimation is presented for 97 countries and the data for 2000, 2004 and 2006. Showing the problems emerging in Russia
    Keywords: gasoline price; normal price; budget revenue; oil rent; benefits and loses; mass protests
    JEL: C2 C23 D4 D49 E31 H2 H21
    Date: 2013–07–30
  22. By: Katrin Rehdanz; Heinz Welsch; Daiju Narita; Toshihiro Okubo
    Abstract: Following a major earthquake off the Pacific coast of Japan, a tsunami disabled the power supply and cooling of three reactors in Fukushima, causing a major nuclear accident on 11 March 2011. Based on a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach we use panel data for 5,979 individuals interviewed in Japan before and after the accident to analyze the effect of the accident on people’s subjective well-being. Our main hypotheses are that this effect declines with distance to the place of the event but also with distance to other nuclear power plants. To test these hypotheses, we use Geographical Information Systems to merge the well-being data with information on respondents’ distance to the Fukushima nuclear plant and on their proximity to nuclear power stations in general. Our empirical results suggest the existence of significant well-being effects of the combined event of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident that are proportional to proximity to the Fukushima site being equivalent to up to 72 percent of annual household income. We find no evidence for increased nation-wide worry about the presence of nuclear power plants near people’s place of residence
    Keywords: Fukushima, subjective well-being, nuclear disaster, difference-in-differences, willingness to pay
    JEL: D62 Q51 Q54 I31
    Date: 2013–07
  23. By: Philippe Menanteau (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I); Odile Blanchard (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I)
    Abstract: Dans un contexte de renchérissement des ressources énergétiques, de renforcement de la menace climatique et des impacts environnementaux associés aux consommations d'énergie, la nécessité de développer des villes plus durables d'un point de vue social, environnemental et énergétique s'impose. Depuis une vingtaine d'années, de nombreuses villes ont vu naître des " écoquartiers " visant à explorer les voies possibles pour relever ces défis. Pourtant, peu d'études ont été menées pour analyser les expériences d'écoquartiers du point de vue énergétique. Ce papier vise précisément à combler ce vide, en s'attachant à la fois à analyser les systèmes énergétiques mis en place, les acteurs en présence, les objectifs fixés et les résultats obtenus. La vision des écoquartiers français qui ressort de cette comparaison est celle de systèmes énergétiques qui s'attachent essentiellement à l'amélioration de la performance énergétique des bâtiments et à la mise en place de systèmes d'approvisionnement en chaleur performants (réseaux, cogénération, sources renouvelables). En revanche, les écoquartiers français étudiés s'intéressent peu au vecteur électricité ; l'approvisionnement est essentiellement assuré à partir du réseau, alors que les écoquartiers européens cherchent à développer la production locale notamment renouvelable aussi bien pour la chaleur que pour l'électricité. Ce faible intérêt des écoquartiers français pour le vecteur électricité transparaît notamment dans la quasi-absence des actions de MDE alors qu'elles sont très répandues dans les écoquartiers européens pourtant plus anciens.
    Date: 2013–07–18
  24. By: Andreoli-Versbach, Patrick; Franck, Jens-Uwe
    Abstract: This article studies dynamic pricing strategies in the Italian gasoline market before and after the market leader unilaterally announced its commitment to adopt a sticky-pricing policy. Using daily Italian firm level prices and weekly average EU prices, we show that the effect of the new policy was twofold. First, it facilitated price alignment and coordination on price changes. After the policy change, the observed pricing pattern shifted from cost-based to sticky-leadership pricing. Second, using a dif-in-dif estimation and a synthetic control group, we show that the causal effect of the new policy was to significantly increase prices through sticky-leadership pricing. Our paper highlights the importance of price-commitment by a large firm in order to sustain (tacit) collusion.
    Keywords: tacit collusion; leadership pricing; sticky pricing; endogenous commitment
    JEL: K21 K42 L13 L41 L71
    Date: 2013–07
  25. By: Céline Antonin (OFCE)
    Abstract: Alors que le premier semestre 2012 avait été marqué par une grande volatilité des cours, les prix du Brent sont restés relativement stables au deuxième semestre avec une moyenne à 110 dollars. Le Brent est actuellement soumis à plusieurs forces antagonistes (...).
    Keywords: petrole
    Date: 2013–04

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