nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2013‒07‒20
twenty papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The Rebound Effect for Passenger Vehicles By Linn, Joshua
  2. Now or Later? Trading wind power closer to real-time and how poorly designed subsidies lead to higher balancing costs By Mauritzen, Johannes
  3. Economics of Small Wind Power Plants in Urban Settings: An Empirical Investigation for Germany By Grieser, Benno; Madlener, Reinhard; Sunak, Yasin
  4. Emissions pricing, 'complementary policies' and 'direct action' in the Australian electricity supply sector: 'lock-in' and investment By Dr Barry Naughten
  5. Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change By John Foster; William Paul Bell; Craig Froome; Phil Wild; Liam Wagner; Deepak Sharma; Suwin Sandu; Suchi Misra; Ravindra Bagia
  6. Countervailing inequality effects of globalization and renewable energy generation in Argentina By Andrea Vaona
  7. Looming Power Crisis in Andhra Pradesh By Motkuri, Venkatanarayana; Bhagavatula, Sridhar
  8. Comparing the Clean Air Act and a Carbon Price By Richardson, Nathan; Fraas, Arthur G.
  9. The Social Cost of Carbon Emissions By Duncan Foley; Lance Taylor; Armon Rezai
  10. Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? By Robert S. Pindyck
  11. The New CAFE Standards: Are They Enough on Their Own? By McConnell, Virginia
  12. CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Income and Foreign Trade: A South African Perspective By Marcel Kohler
  13. Energy Consumption, Financial development and CO2 emissions in Pakistan By Muhammad, Javid; Ghulam Fatima, Sharif
  14. City Silhouette, World Climate By Dascher, Kristof
  15. Macroeconomic effects of precautionary demand for oil By Alessio Anzuini; Patrizio Pagano; Massimiliano Pisani
  16. Isolating the corporate reputational risk in environmental oil spill disasters By Jose Manuel Feria-Dominguez; Enrique Jimenez-Rodriguez; Ines Merino Fernandez-Galiano
  17. Leadership in Climate Policy: Is there a case for Early Unilateral Unconditional Emission Reductions? By Eskeland, Gunnar S.
  18. Inter-Generational Thoughtfulness in a Dynamic Public Good Experiment By Jörg Spiller; Friedel Bolle
  19. An Experimental Analysis of Single vs. Multiple Bids in Auctions of Divisible Goods By Rosen, Christiane; Madlener, Reinhard
  20. Energie et compétitivité By Philippe Martin; Dominique Bureau; Lionel Fontagné

  1. By: Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: Increasingly stringent fuel economy standards will reduce per-mile driving costs and may raise vehicle miles traveled, which is referred to as the rebound effect. All previous estimates impose at least one of three behavioral assumptions: (a) fuel economy is uncorrelated with other vehicle attributes; (b) fuel economy is uncorrelated with attributes of other vehicles owned by the household; and (c) the effect of gasoline prices on vehicle miles traveled is inversely proportional to the effect of fuel economy. Relaxing these assumptions yields a large and robust rebound effect; a one percent fuel economy increase raises driving 0.2 to 0.4 percent.
    Keywords: fuel economy standards, passenger vehicles, vehicle miles traveled, household driving demand
    JEL: Q52 R22 R41
    Date: 2013–07–08
  2. By: Mauritzen, Johannes (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: An important challenge facing many deregulated electricity markets is dealing with the increasing penetration of intermittent generation. Simulation studies have pointed to the advantages of trading closer to real-time with large amounts of intermittent generation. Using Danish data, I show that, as expected, shortfalls increase the probability of trade on the shortterm market. But in the period between 2010 and 2012 surpluses are shown to decrease the probability of trade. This unexpected result is likely explained by wind power policies that discourages trading on Elbas and leads to unnecessarily high balancing costs. I use a rollingwindow regression to support this claim.
    Keywords: Deregulated electricity markets; intermittent generation; wind power
    JEL: Q42 Q48
    Date: 2013–04–25
  3. By: Grieser, Benno (RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Sunak, Yasin (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the location-specific attractiveness of small wind turbines (SWT) for private households. In order to assess the economic viability of an investment in SWT, we analyze a set of scenarios that incorporate different types of SWT, various storage system options, support schemes, and specific urban surroundings for the case of Germany. As urban structures substantially influence local wind speeds, and hence the potential energy yield of a turbine, the potential location of the SWT in the urban area is crucial for the economic feasibility. We find that SWT today are only profitable under very favorable conditions, the most important parameters being prevailing wind speeds and the location’s degree of urbanization. In most cases, the coupling of the SWT to a storage system is crucial for cost-effectiveness. A feed-in tariff system specifically adapted to the SWT technology is found to be an important driver of diffusion. Further research needs are identified in the field of long-term performance and yield projections for SWT. Based on the findings from our study, significant SWT diffusion can be expected, if at all, only in coastal suburban and rural areas.
    Keywords: small wind turbine; energy storage; urban environment; feed-in tariffs
    JEL: O18 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2013–01
  4. By: Dr Barry Naughten
    Abstract: In Australia, carbon emissions pricing is politically contentious. The current Labor government has implemented such a scheme, but the Liberal National Party (LNP) opposition has pledged to repeal the scheme should it be elected. This article accepts the well-established position of emissions pricing as the core and least-cost approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Its main focus is on examining and rebutting some recent LNP arguments to the contrary, notably in regard to the electricity sector under Australian conditions. In so doing, the article considers the problem of ‘locked-in’ carbon-intensive generating capacity, as highlighted by the IEA. As such, it focusses on use of price signals to reduce carbon intensity of electricity generation and also examines the role of passed-on price in encouraging end-use savings of electricity, including more energy-efficient end-use. Both of these mechanisms can be reinforced by well-designed ‘complementary policies’. These two examples of the price mechanism’s effectiveness demonstrate longer run impacts of prices and price expectations on investment decisions. This emphasis is appropriate given the context of catastrophic climate change as a long run phenomenon, albeit one also requiring urgent mitigating action in the shorter run.
    Keywords: Emissions pricing; complementary policies; carbon 'lock-in'; electricity sector; Australian climate policy options;
    JEL: D62 D81 E27 H23 L71 L94 P46 Q41 Q42 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2013–07
  5. By: John Foster (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); William Paul Bell (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); Craig Froome; Phil Wild (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); Liam Wagner (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); Deepak Sharma (Centre for Energy Policy, University of Technology, Sydney); Suwin Sandu (Centre for Energy Policy, University of Technology, Sydney); Suchi Misra (Centre for Energy Policy, University of Technology, Sydney); Ravindra Bagia (Centre for Energy Policy, University of Technology, Sydney)
    Abstract: This non-technical summary presents the findings and recommendations from the project called ‘Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change’. The objectives of the project are to examine the adaptive capacity of existing institutional arrangements in the National Electricity Market (NEM) to existing and predicted climate change conditions. Specifically the project: identifies climate change adaptation issues in the NEM; analyses climate change impacts on reliability in the NEM under alternative climate change scenarios to 2030, particularly what adaptation strategies the power generation and supply network infrastructure will need; and assesses the robustness of the institutional arrangements that supports effective adaptation. The project finds that four factors are hindering or required for adaptation to climate change: fragmentation of the NEM, both politically and economically; accelerated deterioration of the transmission and distribution infrastructure due to climate change requiring the deployment of technology to defer investment in transmission and distribution; lacking mechanisms to develop a diversified portfolio of generation technology and energy sources to reduce supply risk; and failure to model and treat the NEM as a national node based entity rather than state based. The project’s findings are primarily to address climate change issues but if these four factors are addressed, the resilience of the NEM is improved to handle other adverse contingences. For instance, the two factors driving the largest increases in electricity prices are investment in transmission and distribution and fossil fuel prices. Peak demand drives the investment in transmission and distribution but peak demand is only for a relatively short period. Exacerbating this effect is increasing underutilisation of transmission and distribution driven by both solar photo voltaic (PV) uptake and climate change. Using demand side management (DSM) to shift demand to outside peak periods provides one method to defer investment in transmission and distribution. Recommendation 2 addresses investment deferment. The commodity boom has increased both price and price volatility of fossil fuels where the lack of diversity in generation makes electricity prices very sensitive to fossil fuel prices and disruptions in supply. A diversified portfolio of generation would ameliorate the price sensitivity and supply disruptions. Furthermore, long term electricity price rises are likely to ensue as the fossil fuels become depleted. A diversified portfolio of generation would also ready the NEM for this contingency. Recommendation 3 addresses diversified portfolios. This project makes four inter-related recommendations to address the four factors listed above. Chapter 10 discusses the justification for these recommendations in more detail.
    Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Climate change mitigation; electricity demand; electricity generation; transmission; distribution; Australian National Electricity Market; Feed-in tariffs; FiT; solar PV; residential solar PV; reverse auction FiT; parity; Levelised cost of energy; LCOE; Diffusion of innovations; dynamic efficiency; allocative efficiency; Sustainable; Social progress; Environmental protection; Social inequity; DUOS; TUOS; smart meters; institutional adaptation;
    JEL: H1 H4 L94 Q2 Q3 Q40 Q5
    Date: 2013–06
  6. By: Andrea Vaona (Department of Economics (University of Verona))
    Abstract: The present paper assesses the impacts of renewable energy generation and globalization on income inequality in Argentina. We make use of vector autoregression models. We find that globalization and hydroelectric power increase inequality, while the opposite holds true for other renewable energy sources. Several robustness checks are considered. Policy implications are discussed keeping into account the specific Argentinean context.
    Keywords: Argentina, VAR, energy sources, inequality, globalization
    JEL: Q20 Q40 D63
    Date: 2013–07
  7. By: Motkuri, Venkatanarayana; Bhagavatula, Sridhar
    Abstract: Andhra Pradesh has been experiencing increasing energy deficits since 2004-05. Energy deficit has increased from a negligible 0.7% in 2004-05 to 6.6% in 2009-10 and to a whopping 22.8% in 2012-13 (as per load generation balance report 2012-13, Central Electricity Authority, 2013). On the whole, the state has not taken measure for the supply side management as much as that of the demand side management of the power sector. State doesn’t have its reserve of generating capacity to fall back on for the rising demand. the energy requirement in the state is expected to increase from around 84 billion units (in 2011-12) to over 173 billion units by the end of 2020-21. The increase is expected to be driven mainly by industrial sector whose percentage consumption is expected to increase from 32% (in 2011-12) to over 44% in 2020-21. Whether the State will be able to meet such a rise in demand? This calls for Supply Side Management. Thus, the Government of Andhra Pradesh must relook at its strategies, especially supply side management, and come up with a comprehensive energy policy for the state with a strong linkage with policy execution.
    Keywords: Power, Energy, Power Generation, Power Distribution, Andhra Pradesh, Industry, energy Policy
    JEL: Q20 Q30 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2013–04
  8. By: Richardson, Nathan (Resources for the Future); Fraas, Arthur G. (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: Over the last half decade, a variety of federal legislative proposals for limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been put forward, most of which would set a price on carbon. As of early 2013, the one politically plausible policy appears to be a carbon tax, passed as part of a larger fiscal reform package. Meanwhile, the US Environmental Protection Agency has begun regulating GHG emissions from a variety of sources using its authority under the Clean Air Act. It may be necessary to choose between these two policies, however. The Waxman–Markey cap-and-trade bill that failed in 2009 would have preempted much of this authority, and it appears likely that a carbon tax law would do the same. But how can one make this choice? What are the key questions and issues to consider? The purpose of this paper is to compare these policies. Our aim here is therefore not to determine whether an exchange is wise or unwise. Instead, our intention is to give policymakers and other interested readers an impartial assessment of both policies and, in particular, the features that are important to a comparative evaluation. We don’t give answers, but hope at least to give the right questions to ask.
    Keywords: Clean Air Act, carbon pricing, greenhouse gas emissions, cap and trade, climate policy
    JEL: H20 H23 Q50 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2013–05–09
  9. By: Duncan Foley; Lance Taylor; Armon Rezai
    Abstract: Determining the social cost of carbon emissions (SCC) is a crucial step in the economic analysis of climate change policy as the US government's recent decision to use a range of estimates of the SCC centered at $77/tC (or, equivalently, $21/tCO2) in cost-benefit analyses of proposed emission-control legislation underlines. This note reviews the welfare economics theory fundamental to the estimation of the SCC in both static and intertemporal contexts, examining the effects of assumptions about the typical agent's pure rate of time preference and elasticity of marginal felicity of consumption, production and mitigation technology, and the magnitude of climate-change damage on estimates of the SCC. We highlight three key conclusions: (i) an estimate of the SCC is conditional on a specific policy scenario, the details of which must be made explicit for the estimate to be meaningful; (ii) the social discount rate relevant to intertemporal allocation decisions also depends on the policy scenario; and (iii) the SCC is uniquely defined only for policy scenarios that lead to an efficient growth path because marginal costs and benefits of emission mitigation diverge on inefficient growth paths. We illustrate these analytical conclusions with simulations of a growth model calibrated to the world economy.
    Date: 2013–03–12
  10. By: Robert S. Pindyck
    Abstract: Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g. the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading.
    JEL: D81 Q5 Q54
    Date: 2013–07
  11. By: McConnell, Virginia (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: New Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards were recently passed in the United States with the twin goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and oil use. The new standards represent a dramatic change from recent policy. This paper examines the key features of the new rules, and compares them to previous CAFE standards in terms of flexibility and structure. The importance of consumer preferences and market forces on CAFE outcomes are identified. In the second part of the paper, the perspective of the consumer is explored. Consumer assessments of fuel economy savings with more fuel-efficient vehicles may be biased or incomplete, leading many to argue that there is an “energy efficiency gap” in consumer demand for vehicles. Reasons for such a gap, such as market failures, behavioral responses, and market barriers, are summarized. The implications for policy are discussed, including the role of combining CAFE with other policies.
    Keywords: CAFE, vehicle regulation, energy efficiency, environmental policy
    JEL: Q42 Q48 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2013–05–01
  12. By: Marcel Kohler
    Abstract: The effect of trade liberalisation on environmental conditions has yielded significant debate in the energy economics literature. Although research on the relationship between energy consumption, emissions and economic growth is not new in South Africa, no study specifically addresses the role that SA’s foreign trade plays in this context. A surprising fact given trade is one of the most important factors that can explain the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Our research employs recent SA trade and energy data and modern econometric techniques to investigate this. The main finding is the existence of a long run relationship between environmental quality, levels of per capita energy use and foreign trade in SA. As anticipated per capita energy use has a significant long run effect in raising the country’s CO2 emission levels, yet surprisingly higher levels of trade act to reduce these emissions. Granger causality tests confirm the existence of a positive bidirectional relationship between per capita energy use and CO2 emissions. Whilst we also find positive bidirectional causality between trade and income per capita and between trade and per capita energy use, it appears that SA trade liberalisation has not contributed to a long run growth in pollution-intensive activities nor higher emission levels.
    Keywords: CO2 Emissions, Energy, Foreign Trade
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Muhammad, Javid; Ghulam Fatima, Sharif
    Abstract: In this study, we analyzed the effects of financial development, per capita real income, the square of per capita real income, per capita energy consumption and openness on per capita CO2 emissions in the context of Pakistan during 1971-2011. The bound F-test for cointegration yielded evidence of a long-term relationship among these variables. The results confirm the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve in Pakistan for both the short and long term. This finding indicates that at the initial stage of development, the level of CO2 increases with income, and after some threshold level of income, this relationship may change from positive to negative as more efficient infrastructure and energy-efficient technology are implemented during the development of the country. The findings of this study also reveal a significantly positive sign for the coefficient of financial development, suggesting that financial development has occurred at the expense of environmental quality. The findings of this study indicate that the key contributing factors of carbon emissions in Pakistan are income, energy consumption and financial development. In addition, the openness variable has no significant influence on carbon emission in either the short or long term.
    Keywords: EKC; Energy; CO2
    JEL: Q4 Q56
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Dascher, Kristof
    Abstract: Global emissions of carbon dioxide need to fall lest climate change will accelerate. Any effective climate policy must raise the price of carbon consumption. From an urban perspective, one desirable effect of a carbon tax would be to induce households to move closer to where they work. This paper shows that: If the initial distribution of commuting distances (the city silhouette) is skewed towards the periphery then a carbon tax will leave resident landlords better off - even if these landlords need to shoulder those extra commuting costs themselves, too. If resident landlords are decisive then this insight provides an urban silhouette based explanation of why some governments appear so much more willing to confront their citizens with the true cost of emitting carbon dioxide than others. More briefly, the paper suggests a connection between urban form and climate politics.
    Keywords: Urban Silhouette, Climate Policy, Political Economy, Carbon Tax
    JEL: H41 Q54 R12
    Date: 2013–07–15
  15. By: Alessio Anzuini (Bank of Italy); Patrizio Pagano (Bank of Italy); Massimiliano Pisani (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market, which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future supplies. A two-stage identification procedure is used. First, daily changes in the futures-spot spread proxy for precautionary demand shocks and the path of oil prices is estimated. This information is then exploited to restrict the oil price response in a VAR. Impulse responses suggest that such shocks reduce output and raise prices. Historical decomposition shows that they contributed significantly to the U.S. recessions in the 1990s and in the early 2000s, but not to the most recent slump.
    Keywords: Vector autoregression, Oil shock, Futures, News.
    JEL: C2 E3 O41
    Date: 2013–07
  16. By: Jose Manuel Feria-Dominguez (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Enrique Jimenez-Rodriguez (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Ines Merino Fernandez-Galiano (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
    Abstract: This paper isolate the corporate reputational risk incurred by Oil and Gas companies, listed in the NYSE, derived from recent medium sized and large oil spill disasters occurred from 2005 to 2011 in the US. For this purpose, we conduct a standard short-horizon daily event study analysis to calibrate the potential impact of such environmental episodes on the market value of the firms analyzed. Since the accidental spillages are proved to have a negative effect on the cumulative abnormal returns (henceforth, CAR) of the firm’s stock, reputational risk can be identified by adjusting abnormal returns by a certain Loss Ratio, in order to capture the difference between the plummeted firm’s market value and the operational loss incurred by the company. The new magnitude, CAR (Rep), is then introduced to disentangle operational losses from reputational damage.
    Keywords: Corporate Reputational Risk; abnormal returns; sevent study; oil spills
    Date: 2013–07
  17. By: Eskeland, Gunnar S. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: One may misread economic theory on climate policy to provide a warning against unilateral mitigation. While important lessons are drawn from ‘global problems require global solutions’, these say little about what to do in a phase before or without a global agreement - or with weak ones. In the literature on cooperation and leadership in provision of public goods, early provision may stimulate provision from others. A key to leadership is signaling; an early mover has private information and is motivated in part by knowing that others will follow. Others will follow if they understand that the early mover demonstrates that emission reductions are feasible and adoptable. Our analysis finds that early movers will be cognizant of what they need to demonstrate, and they will be concerned about and act on carbon leakage. Leadership can be deterred by concerns for free riding, but this is more likely for a country or coalition that is large in terms of emissions and face others who are both large and vulnerable to climate change. We suggest leadership is possible early in this century: numbers indicate that few – if any - need find themselves deterred from early action of some sort.
    Keywords: Climate policy; unilateral mitigation
    JEL: Q00 Q50 Q54
    Date: 2013–06–14
  18. By: Jörg Spiller (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder)); Friedel Bolle (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder))
    Abstract: In a laboratory experiment groups of four played a 15-period Public Good game. Each period a player could either invest in a green sector or in a more profitable but polluting brown sector. The pollutant accumulated and decreased the players’ income in all following periods. We conducted several treatments including the existence of a future generation. In the latter case subjects were told that their final stock would be forwarded to another group in a later session. The framework allowed investigating learning, the effects of communication and the possibly different reactions to self-produced and inherited pollution. The most interesting result is that the existence of heirs restricts pollution. We find that the result may be driven partly by thoughtfulness and partly by the induced motivation for longer-term planning.
    Keywords: Experimental Economics, Public Good, Dynamic, Environmental Eco- nomics, Inter Generation
    JEL: H41 C91
    Date: 2013–07
  19. By: Rosen, Christiane (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: In this paper we report on an experiment we conducted that has been inspired by energy trading. Bidders with a portfolio consisting of three cost-quantity pairs bid into a market with a single buyer. Depending on the treatment, they are allowed to submit either one or two bids constructed from their endowments. The novelty of our study is the experimental examination of a procurement auction in the context of divisible goods and the evaluation of the effect of multiple bids in comparison to single bids in such an auction. We created both a low and a high competition scenario to evaluate the effects of competitive forces on each auction format. We find that multiple bids have a calming effect on the market, reducing volatility substantially. However, this comes at the cost of lower profits for bidders, whereas auctioneer’s revenue is maximized. At the same time, supply reduction, which is equivalent to demand reduction in demand auctions, is more pronounced in the multiple-bid setting. A reason for this might be that expensive units are driven out of the market more easily in the multi-bid setting, as they can no longer be offered without causing loss of market efficiency during dispatch.
    Keywords: Divisible good auction; laboratory experiment; discriminatory pricing; multiple bids
    JEL: C72 C91 D44
    Date: 2013–04
  20. By: Philippe Martin (Département d'économie); Dominique Bureau (MEEDDAT); Lionel Fontagné (Maison des Sciences Economiques)
    Abstract: Dans un contexte de renchérissement prévisible de l’énergie au cours des vingt prochaines années, orienter l’effort d’innovation industrielle et l’offre de biens et services vers des technologies économes en énergie est une nécessité. Toutefois, une hausse des prix de l’énergie plus marquée en France que chez nos concurrents pénaliserait la compétitivité à court terme de l’industrie française. Cette Note expose les termes de l’arbitrage que doit affronter la France entre la préservation d’un élément significatif de sa compétitivité à court terme (le coût relativement faible de son énergie en particulier électrique) et la nécessaire transformation de ses avantages comparatifs à moyen-long terme (sous l’effet d’une vérité des prix énergétiques). À partir d’un travail économétrique original portant sur les exportations des entreprises françaises, nous estimons qu’une hausse de 10 % des prix de l’électricité en France réduirait la valeur des exportations en moyenne de 1,9 % et qu’une même augmentation du prix du gaz les réduirait de 1,1 %. La perte de compétitivité est sensiblement plus marquée pour les plus gros exportateurs, parti- culièrement dans les secteurs fortement dépendants de l’énergie. Cet effet négatif de court terme est à mettre en regard de l’effet de signal d’une hausse des prix de l’énergie sur les spécialisations à moyen-long terme, afin que la France ne reste pas en arrière dans la course à l’innovation « verte ». Nous tirons de cette analyse plusieurs enseignements. Tout d’abord, il convient d’annoncer la hausse des prix de l’énergie, de manière crédible, afin que les agents économiques l’intègrent dans leurs calculs et réorientent leurs choix de consommation et de production. Afin de limiter les effets négatifs d’un renchérissement de l’énergie sur la compétitivité à court terme, nous recommandons que la taxation supplémentaire de l’énergie soit utilisée pour réduire le coût du travail, une grande prudence quant au rythme de déclassement des équipements nucléaires historiques, dont le coût au kWh est particulièrement performant, une imputation différenciée de la charge de service public en fonction de l’intensité énergétique (comme en Allemagne) et une convergence des approches au niveau européen pour ce qui concerne les coûts de réseau.
    Date: 2013–05

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