nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2013‒06‒04
47 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Basque Climate Change Centre, Bilbao

  1. Caught Between Theory and Practice: Government, Market and Regulatory Failures in Electricity By Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj
  2. EU Gas Supply Security: Unfinished Business By Pierre Noël
  3. Understanding best practice regarding interruptible connections for wind generation: lessons from national and international experience By Karim L. Anaya; Michael Pollitt
  4. How Pro-Poor Growth Affects the Demand for Energy By Paul Gertler; Orie Shelef; Catherine Wolfram; Alan Fuchs
  5. The effect of biodiesel policies on world oilseed markets and developing countries By de Gorter, Harry; Drabik, Dusan; Timilsina, Govinda R.
  6. Integrating Intermittent Renewable Wind Generation: A Stochastic Multi-Market Electricity Model for the European Electricity Market By Jan Abrell; Friedrich Kunz
  7. Spatial Analysis of China Provincial-Level CO2 Emission Intensity By Zhao, Xueting; Burnett, J. Wesley; Fletcher, Jerald J.
  8. The "Greening" of Industrial Policy, Headwinds and a Possible Symbiosis By Karl Aiginger
  9. Hedging China’s Energy Oil Market Risks By Su, Yongyang; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Tan, Na
  10. Road Transport and Climate Change in Brazil By Patrícia Helena Gambogi Boson
  11. European Electricity Grid Infrastructure Expansion in a 2050 Context By Jonas Egerer; Clemens Gerbaulet; Casimir Lorenz
  12. Agriculture's Supply and Demand for Energy and Energy Products By Beckman, Jayson; Borchers, Allison; Jones, Carol
  13. Club Convergence and Clustering of U.S. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions By Burnett, J. Wesley
  14. Energy and Capital in a New-Keynesian Framework. By Verónica Acurio Vasconez; Gaël Giraud; Florent Mc Isaac; Ngoc Sang Pham
  15. The Brazilian Policy on Climate Change: Regulatory and Governance Aspects By Ronaldo Seroa da Motta
  16. Drawing a roadmap for oil pricing reform By Kojima, Masami
  17. The Global Energy Markets in a Strong Change By Chojna, Janusz; Losoncz, Miklós; Suni, Paavo
  18. Agriculture and Cattle Raising in the Context of a Low Carbon Economy By Gustavo Barbosa Mozzer
  19. The Devil’s Tears from the Tournament of Shadows: Oil Supply, Markets and Unstable Producers By Julien-Joern Mueller; Liam Wagner
  20. Cost-Optimal Power System Extension under Flow-Based Market Coupling By Hagspiel, Simeon; Jägemann, Cosima; Lindenberger, Dietmar; Brown, Tom; Cherevatskiy, Stanislav; Tröster, Eckehard
  21. Supply disruptions and regional price effects in a spatial oligopoly - an application to the global gas market By growitsch, Christian; Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo
  22. The 2013 Power Trading Agent Competition By Ketter, W.; Collins, J.; Reddy, P.; Weerdt, M.M. de
  23. Unobserved heterogeneous effects in the cost efficiency analysis of electricity distribution systems By AGRELL, Per; FARSI, Mehdi; FILIPPINI, Massimo; KOLLER, Martin
  24. Politiche di mix energetico e royalties: per una ricalibratura territoriale By Roberto Fazioli; Pierluigi Vecchia
  25. Population Dynamics, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Kenya By Michieka, Nyakundi; Fletcher, Jerald
  26. The systemic risk of energy markets By PIERRET, Diane
  27. Green Innovations: Reducing Energy Poverty and Inequitable Access By Daniela P. Stoycheva
  28. The Photovoltaic Crisis and the Demand-side Generation in Spain By Pere Mir-Artigues
  29. Beyond the Inducement in Climate Change: Do Environmental Performances Spur Enrivornmental Technologies? A Regional Analysis of Cross-Sectoral Differences By Claudia Ghisetti; Francesco Quatraro
  30. Adaptation and the Allocation of Pollution Reduction Costs By Hassan Benchekroun; Farnaz Taherkhani
  31. External cost calculator for Marco Polo freight transport project proposals - Call 2013 version By Martijn Brons; Panos Christidis
  32. Innovation is in the (clean) air: The inclusion of aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme as a driver of innovation in air transport By Lykotrafiti, A.A.
  33. Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices By Eran Raviv; Kees E. Bouwman; Dick van Dijk
  34. Essays on Electricity Market Reforms: A Cross-Country Applied Approach By Erdogdu, Erkan
  35. Climate policies: a burden or a gain? By BRECHET, Thierry; TULKENS, Henry
  36. Robustness, outliers and Mavericks in network regulation By AGRELL, Per; NIKNAZAR, Pooria
  37. Benchmarking and regulation By AGRELL, Per; BOGETOFT, Peter
  38. Evaluation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation's Electricity-Transmission and Distribution Line-Extension Activity in Tanzania: Baseline Report. By Duncan Chaplin; Arif Mamun; John Schurrer
  39. Perfect Competition vs. Riskaverse Agents: Technology Portfolio Choice in Electricity Markets By Malte Sundkötter; Daniel Ziegler
  40. The Trade-off Between Poverty Alleviation and GHG Mitigation: Is it True for all Income Levels in Brazil? By Thiago Fonseca Morello; Vitor Schmid; Ricardo Abramovay
  41. Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices By Marcel Fratzscher; Daniel Schneider; Ine Van Robays
  42. Investment and Efficiency under Incentive Regulation: The Case of the Norwegian Electricity Distribution Networks By Rahmatallah Poudineh; Tooraj Jamasb
  43. What are the Financing Prospects for Brazilian Sustainable Development? From Clean Development Mechanism to Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions By Maria Bernadete Sarmiento Gutierrez
  44. The Geography of Inter-State Resource Wars By Francesco Caselli; Massimo Morelli; Dominic Rohner
  45. Climate Change Regulation in Brazil and the Role of Subnational Governments By Viviane Romeiro; Virginia Parente
  46. The Power to Pass on Taxes - A Test for Tax Shifting based on Observables By Mario Jametti; Agustin Redonda; Anindya Sen
  47. Fuel Panics - insights from spatial agent-based simulation By Eben Upton; William J. Nuttall

  1. By: Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj
    Abstract: The world-wide electricity sector reforms of the early 1990s have revealed the complexities of introducing market driven reforms and making them work in network and infrastructure industries. This paper re-flects on the experience to date with the process and outcomes of market-based electricity reforms in less-developed, transition and developed economies. Evidence suggests similar problems facing the electricity sector of these countries though the contexts vary significantly. Many developing and developed economies continue to have investment inadequacy concerns and the need to balance economic efficiency, sustainability and social equity after more than two decades of experience with reforms. We also use case studies of three selected countries that in many respects represent the current state of the reform though they are rarely examined. Nepal, Belarus and Ireland are chosen as country-specific case studies for this purpose. We conclude that the changing dynamics of the electricity supply industry (ESI) and policy objectives imply that reforms evolve continuously and thus remain work in progress making their success or failure a complex function of micro, macro, and institutional factors.
    Keywords: liberalisation, politics, market, reforms.
    JEL: L52 L94 P00
    Date: 2013–03–01
  2. By: Pierre Noël
    Abstract: Four years after the gas supply crisis of January 2009, this paper looks at the market and policy changes that have changed the European gas situation, and their implications in terms of security of supply. Several positive developments are identified, including the byapssing of Ukraine by Gazprom-sponsored pipelines; the acceleration of import diversification in large markets of western Europe; the process of ‘commoditisation’ of natural gas in north-west Europe. The lack of meaningful progress in market integration between western and eastern-central Europe, however, leaves in place one of the main factors that made the 2009 crisis possible and conferred it its political significance. Overall, the European gas security situation has evolved in a positive direction mainly because of external forces, not EU policies.
    Keywords: Natural Gas; European Union; Public Policy; Security of Supply.
    JEL: O13 P28 Q48
    Date: 2013–04–01
  3. By: Karim L. Anaya; Michael Pollitt
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to explore different practices for accelerating the integration of generating facilities to the electricity network using smart solutions. Case studies from Great Britain, Ireland and Northern Ireland and the Unites States were selected. The paper assesses and compares the different Principles of Access (POA) that have been implemented in these countries, such as Last-in First-out (LIFO), Pro Rata and Market-based. The social optimality of these approaches is also discussed. The paper also evaluates how the risk (regarding curtailment and investment) is allocated between parties (distributor network operators, generators and customers). Even though the cases are diverse, important findings and lessons have been identified which may assist UK distribution network operators to address the issue of increasing the connection of distributed generation while managing efficiently and economically energy exports from generators.
    Keywords: distributed generation, wind generation, non-firm, smart solutions
    JEL: L51 L94 Q20 Q28 Q40
    Date: 2013–05–01
  4. By: Paul Gertler; Orie Shelef; Catherine Wolfram; Alan Fuchs
    Abstract: Most of the future growth in energy use is forecast to come from the developing world. Understanding the likely pace and specific location of this growth is essential to inform decisions about energy infrastructure investments and to improve greenhouse gas emissions forecasts. We argue that countries with pro-poor economic growth will experience larger increases in energy demand than countries where growth is more regressive. When poor households’ incomes go up, their energy demand increases along the extensive margin as they buy energy-using assets for the first time. We also argue that the speed at which households come out of poverty affects their asset purchase decisions. We provide empirical support for these hypotheses by examining the causal impact of increases in household income on asset accumulation and energy use in the context of Mexico’s conditional cash transfer program. We find that transfers had a large effect on asset accumulation among the low-income program beneficiaries, and the effect is greater when the cash is transferred over a shorter time period. We apply lessons from the household analysis to aggregate energy forecast models using country-level panel data. Our results suggest that existing forecasts could grossly underestimate future energy use in the developing world.
    JEL: Q41 Q47
    Date: 2013–05
  5. By: de Gorter, Harry; Drabik, Dusan; Timilsina, Govinda R.
    Abstract: Using an empirical model, this study provides some insights into the functioning of the oilseed-biodiesel-diesel market complex in a large country that determines the biodiesel price, reflecting market equilibrium changes resulting from volatility in the crude oil price. Oilseed crushing produces joint products -- oil and meal –-- and this weakens the link between the biodiesel and oilseed feedstock prices. Higher crude oil prices increase biodiesel prices if biofuel benefits from a fuel tax exemption, but lower them with a blending mandate (minimum biofuel content requirement in marketed fuel). When both canola and soybeans are used to produce biodiesel, an increase in the crude oil price leads to higher canola prices, but the effect on soybean prices is ambiguous and depends on relative elasticities of meal demand and canola supply because canola produces more oil than soybeans. An oil price shock with a blending mandate results in a smaller change in oilseed prices compared with a fuel tax exemption. Jumps in world crude oil prices have differential impacts on commodity prices and welfare in developing countries, depending on which policy determines the biodiesel price in OECD countries.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Markets and Market Access,Renewable Energy,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2013–05–01
  6. By: Jan Abrell; Friedrich Kunz
    Abstract: In northern Europe wind energy has become a dominating renewable energy source due to natural conditions and national support schemes. However, the uncertainty about wind generation affects existing network infrastructure and power production planning of generators and cannot not be fully diminished by wind forecasts. In this paper we develop a stochastic electricity market model to analyze the impact of uncertain wind generation on the different electricity markets as well as network congestion management. Stochastic programming techniques are used to incorporate uncertain wind generation. The technical characteristics of transporting electrical energy as well as power plants are explicitly taken into account. The consecutive clearing of the electricity markets is incorporated by a rolling planning procedure reflecting the market regime of European markets. The model is applied to the German electricity system covering an exemplary week. Three different cases of considering uncertain wind generation are analyzed. The results reveal that the flexibility of the generation dispatch is increased either by using more flexible generation technologies or by flexibilizing the generation pattern of rather inflexible technologies.
    Keywords: Electricity, Unit Commitment, Stochasticity, Renewable Energy
    JEL: C61 D41 L94
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Zhao, Xueting; Burnett, J. Wesley; Fletcher, Jerald J.
    Abstract: This study offers a unique contribution to the literature by investigating the influential factors of energy-related carbon dioxide emission intensity among a panel of 30 provinces in China covering the period 1991-2010. We use novel spatial panel data models to analyze the drivers of energy-related emission intensity, which we posit are characterized by spatial dependence. Our results suggest: (1) emission intensities are negatively affected by per-capita, provincial-level GDP and population density; (2) emission intensities are positively affected by energy consumption structure and transportation structure; and (3) energy price has no effect on the emission intensities.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions intensity, spatial panel data models, China, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q43, Q53, Q54, Q56,
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Karl Aiginger (WIFO)
    Abstract: The importance of manufacturing for industrialised countries has been reappraised, specifically in the wake of the financial crisis and of China's rise to world no. 1 in manufacturing. A "new industrial policy" should bolster reindustrialisation, different from the old selective and interventionist one, with proposals by academia, by the European Commission and many national policy makers in the USA, UK and France. It should be pro competitive, in line with societal needs, integrated with innovation and regional policy building on competitive strength and with "sustainability at centre stage". Environmental standards should no longer be considered as an obstacle to competitive manufacturing but could constitute a driver of green growth. Europe sets targets for increasing energy efficiency, increasing shares of renewable energy and cutting emission first for 2020 and then for 2050, demanding the reduction of greenhouse gases by 80 to 90 percent, based on new technologies and prices of carbon dioxide of 250 € per ton. Headwinds to this ambitious path come from low gas prices specifically in the USA, based on a new extraction technology and from the breaking down of the European emission trading. The question now raises whether Europe has to cope with low gas prices as to prevent carbon leakage, or whether Europe can stick to the goals of the envisaged integrated and systemic industrial policy as to raise energy efficiency as well as to reduce carbon emissions by new technologies. A "new industrial policy" would match the US cost advantage in energy by closing the technology deficit, improving skills and going for excellence in energy efficiency and clean technologies.
    Keywords: New industrial policy, climate change, carbon leakage
    Date: 2013–05–17
  9. By: Su, Yongyang; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Tan, Na
    Abstract: This paper is the first study to examine the effectiveness of the Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Contract (SHF) in risk reduction on the Chinese energy oil market. We find that the SHF contract can help investors reduce risk by approximately 45%, lower than empirical evidence in developed markets, when weekly data are applied. In contrast, when using daily data SHF contract can only help reduce risk by approximately 9%. The Tokyo Oil Futures Contract (TKF), however, performs two times better, reducing risk by around 17%. The empirical results are robust when variance complicated bivariate GARCH (BGARCH) and bivariate distributions are used. Our results imply the energy oil futures market in China is not well-established and further policy is needed to improve market efficiency.
    Keywords: China Energy Oil Market, Hedging Risk Performance, Bivariate GARCH model.
    JEL: C32 G32 Q47
    Date: 2013–04–06
  10. By: Patrícia Helena Gambogi Boson (Representative of CNT in the National Environmental Council (Conama))
    Abstract: A discussion of road transportation in Brazil is of significance in the context of climate change due to its status as the second largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, about 7 to 9 per cent of the national total, and its responsibility for 90 per cent of the diesel oil consumed in the transport sector, or 80 per cent of total domestic consumption. (?)
    Keywords: Road Transport and Climate Change in Brazil
    Date: 2012–05
  11. By: Jonas Egerer; Clemens Gerbaulet; Casimir Lorenz
    Abstract: The European climate targets until 2050 require an adaptation of the generation portfolio in terms of renewable and fossil based generation. Assumptions on the timeline of the targets and the availability and costs of generation technologies are used in energy system models to optimize the cost minimal system transformation. The results include investments in generation technologies and their national allocation. Yet, the models are limited to the national aggregation and lack the spatial resolution required to represent individual network investments and related costs. In this paper, we analyze the impact the results of an energy system model have on demand for network expansion in the European power grid in a line-sharp representation. A cost minimizing mixed-integer problem (MIP) model calculates where in the European electricity grid expansion needs to take place for different time steps (2020/30/40/50) in order to obtain minimal total costs for power plant dispatch and grid expansion. Scenarios based on the generation infrastructure options from the PRIMES EU-wide energy model scenarios invoke different expansion needs and are compared. The model allows investments in the AC network and an overlay DC grid. Resulting investment costs are compared to the numbers of the European Energy Roadmap 2050.
    Keywords: Electricity, European Transmission Network, Investment Model
    JEL: C61 H54 L94
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Beckman, Jayson; Borchers, Allison; Jones, Carol
    Abstract: Rising energy prices and changing energy and environmental policies have transformed the relationship between the energy and agriculture sectors. Traditionally, the relationship has been one-way, with agriculture using energy products as an input in production; during the past decade, however, the energy sector’s use of agricultural products as renewable-fuel feedstocks has increased substantially. This report examines both sector and farm-level responses to changing market and policy drivers such as the increased production of biofuel crops and other sources of renewable energy, together with changes in production practices to economize on energy-based inputs like fertilizer. We provide insight into how farmers have adapted to the changes and update and provide new data on the evolving linkages between the energy and agricultural sectors.
    Keywords: energy, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, biofuels, renewable energy, ARMS, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2013–05
  13. By: Burnett, J. Wesley
    Abstract: This study examines the convergence of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions among a panel of U.S. states between the period 1960-2009. This examination is carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, we conduct a novel regression-based convergence test. Unlike previous studies, this methodology endogenously identifies groups of states with emissions that are converging to a similar steady state growth path over time. In the second stage, we evaluate the rate of convergence (beta-convergence) for the whole sample and for each club based on a panel data, fixed effects model which controls for unobserved, time-invariant heterogeneous effects. More specifically, we examine how structural and non-structural variables affect the rates of convergence. Results from stage one and stage two suggest that two groups of states are converging to similar, relative growth paths: a high-emitting group and a medium-emitting group. Finally, we discuss a differentiated policy approach to mitigating carbon dioxide emissions based on the club convergence hypothesis.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions, Club convergence, Mitigation policies, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C23, Q47, Q48, Q54,
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Verónica Acurio Vasconez (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Gaël Giraud (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Florent Mc Isaac (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Ngoc Sang Pham (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The economic implications of oil price shocks have been extensively studied since the oil price shocks of the 1970s'. Despite this huge literature, no dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is available that captures two well-known stylized facts: 1) the stagflationary impact of an oil price shock, together with 2) two possible reactions of real wages: either a decrease (as in the US) or an increase (as in Japan). We construct a New-Keynesian DSGE model, which takes the case of an oil-importing economy where oil cannot be stored and where fossil fuels are used in two different ways: One part of the imported energy is used as an additional input factor next to capital and labor in the intermediate production of manufactured goods, the remaining part of imported energy is consumed by households in addition to their consumption of the final good. Oil prices, capital prices and nominal government spendings are exogenous random processes. We show that, without capital accumulation, the stagflationary effect is accounted for in general, and provide conditions under which a rise (resp. a declinr) of real wages follows the oil price shock.
    Keywords: New-Keynesian model, DSGE, oil, capital accumulation, stagflation
    JEL: C11 C53 Q31 Q32
    Date: 2012–12
  15. By: Ronaldo Seroa da Motta (IPEA)
    Abstract: Through the Copenhagen Accord and the Conference of the Parties (COP 16) in Cancun, Brazil has confirmed its national voluntary reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with reductions between 36.1 per cent and 38.9 per cent of projected emissions by 2020. These targets were defined in the National Climate Change Policy (PNMC, in Portuguese) approved by the National Congress (Law No. 12.187, dated 29 December 2009). These national targets focus on controlling deforestation, which represents a comparative advantage for Brazil. Reducing deforestation is certainly less restrictive to economic growth than mitigation actions related to energy consumption and industrial activities that other emerging economies would have to adopt. (?)
    Keywords: The Brazilian Policy on Climate Change: Regulatory and Governance Aspects
    Date: 2012–05
  16. By: Kojima, Masami
    Abstract: In 2011, the median oil imports rose to 5 percent of gross domestic product for net importers. In the past several years, many governments have not passed through the world oil price increases to consumers fully. As a sign of divergent pricing policies, the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, and cooking gas in January 2013 varied by a factor of 190, 250, and 70, respectively, across developing countries. Policies to keep oil product prices low to benefit the economy and protect the poor have had a number of unintended negative consequences, including flourishing corruption in the oil sector and entrenchment of monopoly operators or inefficient firms through which subsidies are channeled, stifling competition and raising costs. The path to market-based pricing depends on the starting conditions: the gap between current and market-based price levels, the level of public awareness about the extent of departure from market prices, the degree of market concentration and competition in downstream oil, the subsidy delivery mechanism where subsidies are provided, the robustness of social service delivery, and the perceived credibility of the government. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that pricing reform often does not have a clear end and should instead be viewed as a continuous process of adjustment and search for mechanisms that take into account the country's institutions and political system, and the oil sector's market structure, infrastructure, and history.
    Keywords: Markets and Market Access,Energy Production and Transportation,Access to Markets,Emerging Markets,Economic Theory&Research
    Date: 2013–05–01
  17. By: Chojna, Janusz; Losoncz, Miklós; Suni, Paavo
    Date: 2013–05–16
  18. By: Gustavo Barbosa Mozzer (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA))
    Abstract: In the agricultural sector it is undeniable that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arise both from the consumption of fossil fuels and the biogenic process, including anaerobic decomposition processes. Agriculture can also contribute to soil degradation and deforestation of natural ecosystems when poorly managed. As such, GHG emissions from this sector are not only associated with the energy-intensive consumption of fossil fuels but are also intrinsically related to the nature of practices in the sector. (?)
    Keywords: Agriculture and Cattle Raising in the Context of a Low Carbon Economy
    Date: 2012–05
  19. By: Julien-Joern Mueller (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); Liam Wagner (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)
    Abstract: Oil is the driving force for the modern economy as a cheap energy source and its reliable supply of oil is therefore a crucial element of economic growth. Oil resources however, are unevenly distributed and concentrated into only a few, on average, emerging economies. Inefficient and ineffective resource management can jeopardize the secure flow of oil. Especially since these supplying countries are prone to geopolitical and commercial instability. The status of oil suppliers is derived from an endogenous web of relationships. However, most supply security studies focus mainly on the demand side, and the condition of oil suppliers is assumed to be exogenous. This paper attempts to quantify the security of oil supply from a supply side perspective through a composite indicator-based index. The subsequent composite index analysis combines the indicator results and shows that OPEC is the (relatively) riskiest producer group, followed by the Caspian and Non-OPEC countries. The implications from the analysis are that oil suppliers face not only different degrees of relative risks that vary from one petro-economy to another, but they also provide insights into ways and policies to reduce the relative risk levels of the selected oil suppliers.
    Keywords: Energy Security; Oil; Resource Curse; CIS; Central Asia; OPEC
    JEL: Q43 Q48 Q33 Q32 F52 N75
    Date: 2013–05
  20. By: Hagspiel, Simeon (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Jägemann, Cosima (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Lindenberger, Dietmar (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Brown, Tom (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Cherevatskiy, Stanislav (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Tröster, Eckehard (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)
    Abstract: Electricity market models, implemented as dynamic programming problems, have been applied widely to identify possible pathways towards a cost-optimal and low carbon electricity system. However, the joint optimization of generation and transmission remains challenging, mainly due to the fact that different characteristics and rules apply to commercial and physical exchanges of electricity in meshed networks. This paper presents a methodology that allows to optimize power generation and transmission infrastructures jointly through an iterative approach based on power transfer distribution factors (PTDFs). As PTDFs are linear representations of the physical load flow equations, they can be implemented in a linear programming environment suitable for large scale problems. The algorithm iteratively updates PTDFs when grid infrastructures are modifi ed due to cost-optimal extension and thus yields an optimal solution with a consistent representation of physical load flows. The method is first demonstrated on a simpli fied three-node model where it is found to be robust and convergent. It is then applied to the European power system in order to fi nd its cost-optimal development under the prescription of strongly decreasing CO2 emissions until 2050.
    Keywords: Power system planning; Power generation and transmission; Iterative linear optimization; PTDF; Electricity market model; Power flow model; Flow-based market coupling
    JEL: C61 H54 L94 Q40
    Date: 2013–05–22
  21. By: growitsch, Christian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Hecking, Harald (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Panke, Timo (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)
    Abstract: Supply shocks in the global gas market might affect countries differently since the market is regionally interlinked but not perfectly integrated. Additionally, high supply side concentration might expose countries to market power in different ways. To evaluate the strategic position of importing countries concerning gas supplies we disentangle import prices to price increasing and decreasing factors. Since the interrelations on the global gas market are complex we use an equilibrium model programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) and simulate the blockage of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This enables us account for the oligopolistic nature and the asymmetry of the gas supply side. We fi nd that Japan faces the most severe price increases as it completely relies on LNG supply. In contrast, European countries like the UK bene fit from a good interconnection to the continental pipeline system and signi ficant domestic price-taking production, both of which help to mitigate an increase in physical costs of supply as well as the exercise of market power.
    Keywords: Natural gas market; security of supply; international trade; mixed complementarity problem
    JEL: C61 L72 Q34 Q41
    Date: 2013–04–29
  22. By: Ketter, W.; Collins, J.; Reddy, P.; Weerdt, M.M. de
    Abstract: This is the specification for the Power Trading Agent Competition for 2013 (Power TAC 2013). Power TAC is a competitive simulation that models a “liberalized†retail electrical energy market, where competing business entities or “brokers†offer energy services to customers through tariff contracts, and must then serve those customers by trading in a wholesale market. Brokers are challenged to maximize their profits by buying and selling energy in the wholesale and retail markets, subject to fixed costs and constraints. Costs include fees for publication and withdrawal of tariffs, and distribution fees for transporting energy to their contracted customers. Costs are also incurred whenever there is an imbalance between a broker’s total contracted energy supply and demand within a given time slot.The simulation environment models a wholesale market, a regulated distribution utility, and a population of energy customers, situated in a real location on Earth during a specific period for which weather data is available. The wholesale market is a relatively simple call market, similar to many existing wholesale electric power markets, such as Nord Pool in Scandinavia or FERC markets in North America, but unlike the FERC markets we are modeling a single region, and therefore we do not model location-marginal pricing. Customer models include households and a variety of commercial and industrial entities, many of which have production capacity (such as solar panels or wind turbines) as well as electric vehicles. All have “real-time†metering to support allocation of their hourly supply and demand to their subscribed brokers, and all are approximate utility maximizers with respect to tariff selection, although the factors making up their utility functions may include aversion to change and complexity that can retard uptake of marginally better tariff offers. The distribution utility models the regulated natural monopoly that owns the regional distribution network, and is responsible for maintenance of its infrastructure and for real-time balancing of supply and demand. The balancing process is a market-based mechanism that uses economic incentives to encourage brokers to achieve balance within their portfolios of tariff subscribers and wholesale market positions, in the face of stochastic customer behaviors and weather-dependent renewable energy sources. The broker with the highest bank balance at the end of the simulation wins.
    Keywords: power;portfolio management;sustainability;preferences;energy;trading agent competition;electronic commerce;autonomous agents;policy guidance;TAC
    Date: 2013–05–22
  23. By: AGRELL, Per (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE and Louvain School of Management, Belgium); FARSI, Mehdi (University of Neuchatel); FILIPPINI, Massimo (ETH Zurich and University of Lugano); KOLLER, Martin (ETH Zurich)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the cost efficiency of electricity distribution systems in order to enable regulatory authorities to establish price- or revenue cap regulation regimes. The increasing use of efficiency analysis in the last decades has raised serious concerns among regulators and companies regarding the reliability of efficiency estimates. One important dimension affecting the reliability is the presence of unobserved factors. Since these factors are treated differently in various models, the resulting estimates can vary across methods. Therefore, we decompose the benchmarking process into two steps. In the first step, we identify classes of similar companies with comparable network and structural characteristics using a latent class cost model. We obtain cost best practice within each class in the second step, based on deterministic and stochastic cost frontier models. The results of this analysis show that the decomposition of the benchmarking process into two steps has reduced unobserved heterogeneity within classes and, hence, reduced the unexplained variance previously claimed as inefficiency.
    Keywords: efficiency analysis, cost function, electricity sector, incentive regulation
    JEL: L92 L50 L25
    Date: 2013–02–22
  24. By: Roberto Fazioli; Pierluigi Vecchia
    Abstract: Toward a reform of energy policies in Italy: the need of a tangible benefit for the local communities. The production of underground, fossil energy sources has significantly characterized for decades the economic development of many countries, both in the microeconomic aspects of business operation efficiency, and in the macroeconomic aspects related to the balance of energy expenditure and tax revenue. Despite the spreading of many NIMBY (Not In My BackYard) protests, the need to relaunch the strategic area of exploration and production of fossil energy sources on new logical basis, requires a revision of the specific tax system. First of all, the so-called Royalties require revision, in order to give them consistency with the current discussion on the Title V of the Italian Constitution that aims to increase the decision making power of the local communities. This also brings into play the current discussions regarding the National Energy Strategy and the further revision of Title V of the Constitution, that tends to re-allocate jurisdiction on energy matters back to the state. In outlining any energy and industrial strategy/policy for the future, we cannot forget what all the institutional and non-institutional international actors have to say: hydrocarbons (in particular natural gas) in the near future will play a key role in driving our country, Europe, and the international community towards a source of energy, or better a mix of sources, that can really be an alternative to the hydrocarbon domain and most of all, that can be environmentally, socially and territorially sustainable. We need to seek forms of sustainable development from an environmental, industrial, fiscal and social point of view, bearing in mind that we will not be able to enter the Third Industrial Revolution (Jeremy Rifkin, 2011) in the short term and it may also be difficult in the medium term. A period of transition to these forms has to be seriously considered, and must ensure that this period is as short as possible and with as less impact as possible. Between the “snapshot of today†and the “dream for tomorrow†we need to include the “imagine of the meanwhileâ€.
    Keywords: Energy mix strategies and policies; Fossil sources; royalties; local “Nimby†problems
    JEL: H23 L51 P28 P48
    Date: 2013–04–01
  25. By: Michieka, Nyakundi; Fletcher, Jerald
    Abstract: Kenya is a small open economy that depends on energy for growth. Since independence in 1963, it has experienced tremendous urban and rural population growth, placing an increasing strain on energy resources and economic development. Therefore, in this paper the relationship between urban and rural populations, economic development, and energy use is studied. The empirical analysis uses a vector autoregression framework. The Granger Causality test results suggest unidirectional causality running from urban population to GDP. The vector error decomposition results imply that urban growth will continue to play a major role in energy consumption in Kenya.
    Keywords: Population, growth, energy, Kenya, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2013
  26. By: PIERRET, Diane (Université catholique de Louvain, ISBA, Belgium)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the meaning of systemic risk in energy markets and proposes a methodology to measure it. Energy Systemic Risk is defined by the risk of an energy crisis raising the prices of all energy commodities with negative consequences for the real economy. Measures of the total cost (EnSysRISK) and the net impact (ΔMES) of an energy crisis on the rest of the economy are proposed. The measures are derived from the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) capturing the tail dependence between the asset and the energy market factor. The adapted MES accounts for causality and dynamic exposure to common latent factors. The methodology is applied to the European Energy Exchange and the DAX industrial index, where a minor decline in industrial productivity is observed from recent energy shocks.
    Keywords: energy crisis, factor models, marginal expected shortfall, market integration
    JEL: C32 C58 Q43
    Date: 2013–05–17
  27. By: Daniela P. Stoycheva (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Access to basic services is a universal human right, and access to a decent ?quality? of water, energy and food are key to sustainable human development. With them, people?s capabilities, opportunities and basic freedoms can expand exponentially. This interconnectedness between the quantity and quality of resources is expressed in the definition of energy access by the UN Secretary General in his declaration of 2012 as the International Year of Sustainable Energy for All and the launch of the Sustainable Energy for All (SEE4ALL) initiative. Defined as ?the physical availability of modern energy services, including electricity and improved end-use devices such as cookstoves, to meet basic human needs at affordable price? (Sustainable Energy for All, 2012), ?access? thus relates to more than availability; it also captures factors such as affordability and relevance. For poor people, this implies that the price of modern energy should be, to some extent, in line with their ability to pay and comparable to the cost and effort of accessing traditional fuels. (?)
    Keywords: Green Innovations: Reducing Energy Poverty and Inequitable Access
    Date: 2012–06
  28. By: Pere Mir-Artigues
    Abstract: The RES-E promotion policy in Spain gave priority to the photovoltaic (henceforth, PV) ground-mounted installations. For years, the coupling of customer-side generation coupled with excess energy exports was never specifically considered. However, some months ago this option was suggested as a way to recover the Spain’s PV sector from the current moratorium on the RES-E policy. A decree draft on on-site generation was issued, its central point being the consideration of electricity exports as delayed consumption rights. But several barriers hinder its entry into force. Unfortunately, Spain could be losing an important opportunity for encouraging PV investments while retail grid parity is being reached. This working paper analyzes the different types of PV demand-side generation from the point of view of consumer-generators and evaluates the economic and technical features of the regulation proposed in Spain and to date still pending.
    Keywords: Distributed on-site generation, net metering, Spain.
    JEL: Q42 Q48
    Date: 2013–03–01
  29. By: Claudia Ghisetti; Francesco Quatraro
    Abstract: This paper contributes the debate on the inducement of environmental innovations, by analyzing the extent to which endogenous inducement mechanisms spur the generation of greener technologies in contexts characterized by weak exogenous inducement pressures. In the presence of a fragile environmental regulatory framework, the inducement can indeed be endogenous, and environmental innovations might be spurred by firms’ reactions to their environmental performances. The cross-sector analysis is focused on a panel of Italian regions, over the time span 1995-2007 and is conducted by implementing zero-inflated models for count data variables. The empirical results suggest that in a context characterized by substantial lack of regulatory frameworks, like the Italian one, environmental performances have significant and complementary within- and between-sector effects on the generation of green technologies.
    Keywords: Regional NAMEA; Green technologies; Technological innovation; Knowledge production function; Environmental Performance; Knowledge Coherence
    JEL: O33 Q53 Q55 Q56 R11
    Date: 2013–04–03
  30. By: Hassan Benchekroun; Farnaz Taherkhani
    Abstract: We consider a game of abatement of a transboundary pollutant. We use a time-consistent Shapley value allocation of the cost of pollution reduction, and study the sensitivity of such an allocation to countries' adaptation to pollution. A country's adaptation to pollution is captured by a change in its damage function. We show that if there is a reduction in the damage cost of one country only, this can harm the other countries. Some countries may end up worse o¤ even in the case where all countries experience a uniform decrease in their damage from pollution. An important policy implication of our analysis is that the Shapley value approach to the allocation of abatement costs doesn't necessarily provide the right incentives for all players to act on reducing pollution damage. We determine conditions under which a uniform fall in all countries'pollution damage benefits all countries.
    Keywords: adaptation, Shapley value, transboundary pollution, climate change, time-consistency
    JEL: C71 Q2 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2013
  31. By: Martijn Brons (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Panos Christidis (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: The Marco Polo programme of the European Commission aims to shift or avoid freight transport off the roads to other more environmentally friendly transport modes. The programme is implemented through yearly calls for proposals. The proposals received to each call are selected for financial support inter alia on the basis of their merits in terms of environmental and social benefits. The evaluation of each proposal's merits in terms of environmental and social benefits is based on the external costs for each transport mode. On the Commission’s request the Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) modified and updated the methodology underlying the calculation of external costs and the software application that automates the estimation of the impact on external costs for specific projects. The work was based on a combination of data and model results that allow the estimation of transport volumes, fleet mixes, levels of utilisation and resulting externalities with up-to-date methodologies for the economic valuation of these externalities. The new external cost methodology and calculator covers road, rail, inland waterways and short sea shipping. External cost coefficients are provided for environmental impacts (air quality, noise, climate change) and socio-economic impacts (accidents, congestion). The methodology permits the estimation of external cost coefficients for specific mode subcategories based on fuel technology, cruising speed, vehicle size, and cargo type. The present methodological note describes the methodology and calculator used to evaluate proposals submitted for the 2013 Marco Polo call for projects
    Keywords: freight transport, external costs of transport, sustainable transport, transport technology
    JEL: F18 Q51 Q53 Q54 Q55 Q56 R41
    Date: 2013–04
  32. By: Lykotrafiti, A.A. (Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economics Center)
    Date: 2012
  33. By: Eran Raviv (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Kees E. Bouwman (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Dick van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This paper demonstrates that the disaggregated hourly prices contain useful predictive information for the daily average price. Multivariate models for the full panel of hourly prices significantly outperform univariate models of the daily average price, with reductions in Root Mean Squared Error of up to 16%. Substantial care is required in order to achieve these forecast improvements. Rich multivariate models are needed to exploit the relations between different hourly prices, but the risk of overfitting must be mitigated by using dimension reduction techniques, shrinkage and forecast combinations.
    Keywords: Electricity market, Forecasting, Hourly prices, Dimension reduction, Shrinkage, Forecast combinations
    JEL: C53 C32 Q47
    Date: 2013–05–17
  34. By: Erdogdu, Erkan
    Abstract: In the last two decades, more than half of the countries in the world have introduced a reform process in their power industries and billions of dollars have been spent on liberalizing electricity markets around the world. This thesis presents a doctoral research concerned with the cross-country empirical analysis of the electricity market reforms. The thesis is in three-paper format; that is, we present three independent but related stand-alone papers. The first paper focuses on the impact of power market reforms on electricity price-cost margins and industrial/residential price ratios. It investigates this issue by looking at the impact of the electricity industry reforms on residential and industrial electricity price-cost margins and their effect on industrial/residential price ratios. Using panel data from 63 developed and developing countries covering the period 1982–2009, empirical models are developed and analysed. The results suggest that each individual reform step has different impact on price-cost margins and industrial/residential price ratios for each consumer and country group. That is to say, our findings imply that similar reform steps may have different impacts in different countries, which supports the idea that reform prescription for a specific country cannot easily be transferred to another one with similar success. The second paper explores whether the question of why some countries are able to implement more extensive reforms is closely related to the question of why some countries have better institutions than others. It analyses this question by using an empirical econometric model based on Poisson regression with cross-section data covering 51 states in US, 13 provinces in Canada and 51 other countries. The study concludes that both the background of the chairperson and the minister/governor and institutional endowments of a country are important determinants of how far reforms have gone in a country. Considering the fact that ideological considerations, political composition of governments and educational/professional background of leaders have played and will play a crucial role throughout the reform process; the third paper attempts to discover the impact of political economic variables on the liberalization process in electricity markets. It develops and analyses empirical models using panel data from 55 developed and developing countries covering the period 1975–2010. The results suggest that a portion of the differences in the reform experiences of reforming countries in the past three decades can be explained by differences in the political structure, in the ideology of the government and in the professional and educational backgrounds of the political leaders.
    Keywords: econometric modeling; institutions and the macroeconomy; international political economy; international economics; electric utilities; power market reform; electricity prices
    JEL: C5 E02 F35 F5 L51 L94 L98 Y4
    Date: 2013–05
  35. By: BRECHET, Thierry (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE and Louvain School of Management, Belgium); TULKENS, Henry (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: That climate policies are costly is evident and therefore often creates major fears. But the alernative (no action) also has a cost. Mitigation costs and damages incurred depend on what the climate policies are, and in addition, they are substitutes. This brings climate policies naturally in the realm of benefit-cost analysis. In this paper we illustrate the "direct" cost components of various policies, and then confront them with the benefits generated, that is, the damage cost avoided. However, the sheer benefit-cost criterion is not a sufficient incentive to induce cooperation among countries, a necessary condition for an effective global climate policy. Thus, we also explore how to make use of this criterion in the context of international climate cooperation.
    Keywords: climate policy, integrated assessment, cost-benefit analysis, climate coalitions
    JEL: Q2 D9
    Date: 2013–02–22
  36. By: AGRELL, Per (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE & Louvain School of Management, Belgium); NIKNAZAR, Pooria (Université catholique de Louvain, LSM, Belgium)
    Abstract: Benchmarking methods, primarily non-parametric techniques such as Data Envelopment Analysis, have become well-established and informative tools for economic regulation, in particular in energy infrastructure regulation. The axiomatic features of the non-parametric methods correspond closely to the procedural and economic criteria for good practice network regulation. However, critique has been voiced against the robustness of best-practice regulation in presence of uncertainty regarding model specification, data definition and collection. This paper investigates the foundation of the critique both conceptually and by describing the actual state-of-the-art used in energy network regulation using frontier analysis models in Sweden (2000-2003) and in Germany (2007-). A principal component of the applied frontier regulation is the systematic use of outlier detection models to define homogeneous reference sets and to exclude maverick reports. We review two families of outlier detection methods in terms of their function and application using a data set from Swedish electricity distribution, illustrating the different types of outliers. Finally, the paper concludes on the role of outlier detection as a mean to implement regulation with higher robustness.
    Keywords: regulation, energy networks, outlier detection
    Date: 2013–04–26
  37. By: AGRELL, Per (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE & Louvain School of Management, Belgium); BOGETOFT, Peter (Copenhagen Business School, Denmark)
    Abstract: Benchmarking methods, and in particular Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), have become well-established and informative tools for economic regulation. DEA is now routinely used by European regulators to set reasonable revenue caps for energy transmission and distribution system operators. The application of benchmarking in regulation, however, requires specific steps in terms of data validation, model specification and outlier detection that are not systematically documented in open publications, leading to discussions about regulatory stability and economic feasibility of these techniques. In this paper, we review the modern foundations for frontier-based regulation and we discuss its actual use in several jurisdictions.
    Keywords: agency theory, regulation, energy networks
    JEL: Q40 L59 C51 C24
    Date: 2013–04–26
  38. By: Duncan Chaplin; Arif Mamun; John Schurrer
    Abstract: This report presents findings from an analysis of baseline data collected as the first step in an impact evaluation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s energy sector project in Tanzania. The evaluation will use rigorous methods to estimate impacts of two project components: (1) an activity to provide new transmission and distribution lines to more than 300 communities in seven regions of Tanzania, and (2) a financing scheme initiative to provide low-cost connections to about 5,800 households in 29 of these communities.
    Keywords: MCC, Electricity Transmission, Distribution Line Extension, Tanzania
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2012–11–20
  39. By: Malte Sundkötter; Daniel Ziegler (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)
    Abstract: Investments in power generation assets are risky due to high construction costs and long asset lifetimes. Technology diversification in generation portfolios represents one option to reduce long-term investment risks for risk-averse decision makers. In this article, we analyze the impact of market imperfections induced by risk-aversion on the long-term investment portfolio structure in the market. We show that risk-averse electricity market agents who receive a managerial profit share may shift the technology structure in the market significantly away from the welfare optimum. A numerical example provides estimates on the potential scale of this effect and discusses sensitivities of key parameters.
    Keywords: Nodal Pricing, Market Design, Electricity Markets
    JEL: G11 L94 Q43 C45
    Date: 2013–04
  40. By: Thiago Fonseca Morello (Socioenvironmental Economics Centre, University of São Paulo, Department of Economics); Vitor Schmid (Socioenvironmental Economics Centre, University of São Paulo, Department of Economics); Ricardo Abramovay (Socioenvironmental Economics Centre, University of São Paulo, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: A Goldman Sachs study (2008) estimates that between 60 and 80 million people are introduced to the consumer market of durable goods annually, forming a kind of new worldwide middle class. The environmental impacts of these new consumers are not insignificant, and motivate important international negotiations regarding limits to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is a matter of concern even if the technological innovations aimed at the ?decarbonisation? of economies advance faster in the future than currently. Typically, one would expect that improving the living standards of poor people would almost unavoidably result in an increase in GHG emissions. However, this relationship may not be valid for all types of changes in consumption, especially those observed at lower income levels. (?)
    Keywords: The Trade-off Between Poverty Alleviation and GHG Mitigation: Is it True for all Income Levels in Brazil?
    Date: 2012–05
  41. By: Marcel Fratzscher; Daniel Schneider; Ine Van Robays
    Abstract: This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil prices since the early 2000s. Moreover, both oil prices and the US dollar are significantly affected by changes in equity market returns and risk. By contrast, oil prices did not react to changes in these financial assets before 2001. The paper provides evidence that this may be explained by the increased use of oil as a financial asset over the past decade, which intensified the link between oil and other assets. The model can account well for the strong and rising negative correlation between oil prices and the US dollar since the early 2000s, with risk shocks and the financialisation process of oil prices explaining most of the strengthening of this correlation.
    Keywords: oil prices, asset prices, exchange rates, US dollar, identification, time-varying correlation
    JEL: F30 G15
    Date: 2013
  42. By: Rahmatallah Poudineh; Tooraj Jamasb
    Abstract: Following the liberalisation of the electricity industry since the early 1990s, many sector regulators have recognised the potential for cost efficiency improvement in the networks through incentive regulation aided by benchmarking and productivity analysis. This approach has often resulted in cost efficiency and quality of service improvement. However, there remains a growing concern as to whether the utilities invest sufficiently and efficiently in maintaining and modernising the networks to ensure long term reliability and also to meet future challenges of the grid. This paper analyses the relationship between investments and cost efficiency in the context of incentive regulation with ex-post regulatory treatment of investments using a panel dataset of 126 Norwegian distribution companies from 2004 to 2010. We introduce the concept of “no impact efficiency” as a revenue-neutral efficiency effect of investment under incentive regulation which makes a firm “investment efficient” in cost benchmarking practice. Also, we estimate the observed efficiency effect of investments in order to compare with no impact efficiency and discuss the implication of cost benchmarking for investment behaviour of network companies.
    Keywords: Investments, cost efficiency, incentive regulation, distribution network
    JEL: L43 L51 L94 D21 D23 D24
    Date: 2013–04–01
  43. By: Maria Bernadete Sarmiento Gutierrez (IPEA)
    Abstract: The two ways in which the international regime on climate change has been negotiated, created at the Conference of the Parties (COP 13) in 2007 and framed in the so-called Bali Road Map, resulted in two task forces: the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA). While the former is in charge of, among others, the issues involving all aspects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the latter focuses on long-term cooperative actions to be followed by the different countries?in particular, what are called the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), by which the developing countries would present mitigation actions in the context of their sustainable development on a voluntary basis. (?)
    Keywords: What are the Financing Prospects for Brazilian Sustainable Development? From Clean Development Mechanism to Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
    Date: 2012–05
  44. By: Francesco Caselli; Massimo Morelli; Dominic Rohner
    Abstract: We establish a theoretical as well as empirical framework to assess the role of resource endowments and their geographic location for inter-State conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict tends to be more likely when at least one country has natural resources; when the resources in the resource-endowed country are closer to the border; and, in the case where both countries have natural resources, when the resources are located asymmetrically vis-a-vis the border. We test these predictions on a novel dataset featuring oilfield distances from bilateral borders. The empirical analysis shows that the presence and location of oil are significant and quantitatively important predictors of inter-State conflicts after WW2.
    Keywords: Conflict; Interstate War; Border Disputes; Natural Resources; Oil; Asymmetry; Geography
    JEL: D74 C72 F51 Q34
    Date: 2013–04
  45. By: Viviane Romeiro (Electrotechnical and Energy Institute of the University of São Paulo (IEE/USP)); Virginia Parente (Electrotechnical and Energy Institute of the University of São Paulo (IEE/USP))
    Abstract: Progress in public policy and regulatory frameworks towards international climate governance has become increasingly more complex due to the plurality of political positions and statutory schemes in various countries. The creation of national and subnational policies on climate change can play a key role in advancing the international climate agenda, contributing to the construction of a more effective regulatory framework. The aim of this work is to analyse the evolution of climate change regulation in Brazil with the creation of subnational policies and to verify the impacts of these policies in the context of the 2009 Política Nacional das Mudanças Climáticas (PNMC ? National Policy on Climate Change). (?)
    Keywords: Climate Change Regulation in Brazil and the Role of Subnational Governments
    Date: 2012–05
  46. By: Mario Jametti (Istituto di Economia Politica (IdEP), Facoltà di Scienze Economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera); Agustin Redonda (Istituto di Economia Politica (IdEP), Facoltà di Scienze Economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera); Anindya Sen (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo, Canada)
    Abstract: Since gasoline has a relatively inelastic demand, raising government revenue via gasoline taxes could appear appropriate as it entails a relatively small deadweight loss. However, gasoline retail is generally a highly concentrated market, hence the assumption of perfect competition when considering tax incidence might be misleading. Theoretically, in oligopolistic markets taxes can be shifted forward less (more) than proportionally to retail prices; a possibility usually denoted by undershifting (overshifting). Generally, this depends on unobservable parameters of the demand and cost functions. In this paper we device a novel empirical test, based on observables, to assess whether taxes are under- or overshifted in an oligopolistic market. The test depends on the interaction between market structure and taxes. We apply our test to the Canadian retail gasoline market using a panel data set of 10 cities, finding that gasoline taxes are undershifted.
    Keywords: Tax Incidence, Pass-through, Market Structure
    JEL: H22 D43 L13
    Date: 2013
  47. By: Eben Upton; William J. Nuttall
    Abstract: The United Kingdom has twice suffered major disruption as a result of fuel panics first in September 2000 coincident with a wave of fuel protests and more recently in March 2012 following politcal warnings of possible future supply chain disruption. In each case the disruption and economic consequences were serious. Fuel distribution is an example of a supply chain. Approaches to supply-chain planning based on linear programming are poorly suited to modelling non-equilibrium effects, while coarse-grained system dynamics models often fail to capture local phenomena which contribute to the evolution of global demand. In this Paper, we demonstrate that agent-based techniques offer a powerful framework for cosimulation of supply chains and consumers under conditions of transient demand. In the case of fuel panic crisis, we show that even a highly abstract model can reproduce a range of transient phenomena seen in the real world, and present a set of practical recommendations for policymakers faced with panic-buying.
    Keywords: Fuel Panics, Agent Based Simulation, Supply Chain
    JEL: C15 C63 H30 J48 L91 R40
    Date: 2013–04–01

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