nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2012‒12‒10
fourteen papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Basque Climate Change Centre, Bilbao

  1. Modelling Primary Energy Consumption under Model Uncertainty By Zsuzsanna Csereklyei; Stefan Humer
  2. International Experience in Export Promotion By Nadezhda Volovik; Sergey Prikhodko; Alexander Pakhomov
  3. The Dynamic Link between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Financial Development and Trade in China: Fresh Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis By Muhammad, Shahbaz; Saleheen , Khan; Mohammad , Iqbal Tahir
  4. What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies By Knut Are Aastveit; Hilde C. Bjørnland; Leif Anders Thorsrud
  5. Modernization or Conservation: The Role of Export Duty on Crude Oil and Petroleum Products By Georgy Idrisov; Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev
  6. Extreme value statistics and recurrence intervals of NYMEX energy futures volatility By Wen-Jie Xie; Zhi-Qiang Jiang; Wei-Xing Zhou
  7. Petroleum Tax Policy in Russia By Yuri Bobylev
  8. Competition in Germany's minute reserve power market: An econometric analysis By Haucap, Justus; Heimeshoff, Ulrich; Jovanovic, Dragan
  9. Caso exitoso eficiencia energética: Hotel Explora: San Pedro de Atacama By Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID); Fundación Chile
  10. Steuerliche Förderung von energetischen Sanierungen: Erfahrungen aus der Praxis By Amecke, Hermann; Neuhoff, Karsten; Stelmakh, Kateryna
  11. Credibility and Legitimacy in Policy-driven Innovation Networks: Resource dependencies and expectations in Dutch electric subsidies By Frank J. van Rijnsoever; Leon Welle; Sjoerd Bakker
  12. Emissions trading with offset markets and free quota allocations By Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Strand, Jon
  13. Carbon management: Evidence from case studies of German firms under the EU ETS By Heindl, Peter; Lutz, Benjamin
  14. Effects of international climate policy for India: Evidence from a national and global CGE model By Matthias Weitzel; Joydeep Ghosh; Sonja Peterson; Basanta K. Pradhan

  1. By: Zsuzsanna Csereklyei (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Stefan Humer (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-term relationship between primary energy consumption and other key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, labour force, capital stock and technology, using a panel dataset for 64 countries over the period 1965-2009. Deploying panel error correction models, we find that there is a positive relationship running from physical capital, GDP, and population to primary energy consumption. We observe however a negative relationship between total factor productivity and primary energy usage. Significant differences arise in the magnitude of the cointegration coefficients, when we allow for differences in geopolitics and wealth levels. We also argue that inference on the basis of a single model without taking model uncertainty into account can lead to biased conclusions. Consequently, we address this problem by applying simple model averaging techniques to the estimated panel cointegration models. We find that tackling the uncertainty associated with selecting a single model with model averaging techniques leads to a more accurate representation of the link between energy consumption and the other macroeconomic variables, and to a significantly increased out-of-sample forecast performance.
    Keywords: Energy Consumption; Panel Cointegration Models; Model Averaging
    JEL: C33 C52 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2012–11
  2. By: Nadezhda Volovik (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Prikhodko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Pakhomov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Over recent years Russia has actually become a monoculture exporter: three types of energy resources (crude oil, oil products and natural gas) ensure about 60% of the overall export volume. In the circumstances of such high export concentration over a small group of commodities, Russia’s room for maneuver regarding foreign economic ties becomes significantly narrower and its vulnerability with respect to negative changes towards global fluctuations is growing significantly.
    Keywords: international trade, exports, Russian economy
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Muhammad, Shahbaz; Saleheen , Khan; Mohammad , Iqbal Tahir
    Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth by incorporating financial development, international trade and capital as important factors of production function in case of China over the period of 1971-2011. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied to examine long run relationship among the series while stationarity properties of the variables was tested by applying structural break test. Our empirical evidence confirmed long run relationship among the variables. The results showed that energy consumption, financial development, capital, exports, imports and international trade have positive impact on economic growth. The Granger causality analysis revealed that unidirectional causal relationship running from energy consumption to economic growth. Financial development and energy consumption Granger cause each other. There is bidirectional causality between trade and energy consumption. The feedback relation exists between financial development and international trade. There is also bidirectional causality exists between capital and energy consumption, financial development and economic growth and, international trade and economic growth. This paper makes significant contribution in energy literature and opens up new direction for policy makers to explore new and alternative sources of energy to meet the rising demand of energy due to sustained rate of economic growth.
    Keywords: Growth; Energy; Financial Development; Trade
    JEL: E44 F1 Q4
    Date: 2012–11–10
  4. By: Knut Are Aastveit; Hilde C. Bjørnland; Leif Anders Thorsrud
    Abstract: We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a method that allows us to identify demand from different groups of countries across the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real price of oil and in oil production. Furthermore, we find that different geographical regions respond differently to oil supply shocks and oil-specific demand shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than emerging economies in Asia and South America. We demonstrate that this heterogeneity in responses is not only attributable to differences in energy intensity in production across regions but also to degree of openness and the investment share in GDP.
    Keywords: Oil prices, emerging and developed countries, demand and supply shocks, factor augmented vector autoregressions
    JEL: C32 E32 F41
    Date: 2012–12
  5. By: Georgy Idrisov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the analysis of the consequences of the abolition of export duties on crude oil and petroleum products as a necessary measure to create incentives to improve energy efficiency of the Russian economy and the elimination of underdevelopment caused by the unprecedented long-term subsidies to inefficient Russian oil refining. The authors consider three possible scenarios for the abolition of export duties on crude oil and domestic market and the conservation of tax revenues at a constant level.
    Keywords: resource rent, oil refining, export duty on crude oil and petroleum products, energy efficiency of the Russian economy
    JEL: L71
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Wen-Jie Xie (ECUST); Zhi-Qiang Jiang (ECUST); Wei-Xing Zhou (ECUST)
    Abstract: Energy markets and the associated energy futures markets play a crucial role in global economies. We investigate the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals of daily volatility time series of four NYMEX energy futures, which are defined as the waiting times $\tau$ between consecutive volatilities exceeding a given threshold $q$. We find that the recurrence intervals are distributed as a stretched exponential $P_q(\tau)\sim e^{(a\tau)^{-\gamma}}$, where the exponent $\gamma$ decreases with increasing $q$, and there is no scaling behavior in the distributions for different thresholds $q$ after the recurrence intervals are scaled with the mean recurrence interval $\bar\tau$. These findings are significant under the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the Cram{\'e}r-von Mises test. We show that empirical estimations are in nice agreement with the numerical integration results for the occurrence probability $W_q(\Delta{t}|t)$ of a next event above the threshold $q$ within a (short) time interval after an elapsed time $t$ from the last event above $q$. We also investigate the memory effects of the recurrence intervals. It is found that the conditional distributions of large and small recurrence intervals differ from each other and the conditional mean of the recurrence intervals scales as a power law of the preceding interval $\bar\tau(\tau_0)/\bar\tau \sim (\tau_0/\bar\tau)^\beta$, indicating that the recurrence intervals have short-term correlations. Detrended fluctuation analysis and detrending moving average analysis further uncover that the recurrence intervals possess long-term correlations. We confirm that the "clustering" of the volatility recurrence intervals is caused by the long-term correlations well known to be present in the volatility.
    Date: 2012–11
  7. By: Yuri Bobylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Petroleum complex is Russia’s basic economic sector which is playing a leading role in providing the state budget revenues. This paper is dedicated to the main issues of the government petroleum tax policy in Russia. The author analyses the outcome of the implemented petroleum tax reform and possible measures designed for further taxation improvement in this sector.
    Keywords: Russian economy, oil production, oil export, oil prices
    JEL: L71 L72
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Haucap, Justus; Heimeshoff, Ulrich; Jovanovic, Dragan
    Abstract: The German reserve power market was subject to important regulatory changes in recent years. A new market design was created by synchronization and interconnection of the four control areas. In this paper, we analyze whether or not the reforms led to lower prices for minute reserve power (MRP). In contrast to existing papers, we use a unique panel dataset to account for unobserved heterogeneity between the four German regional markets. Moreover, we control for endogeneity by using weather data as instruments for electricity spot market prices. We find that the reforms were jointly successful in decreasing MRP prices leading to substantial cost savings for the transmission system operators. --
    Keywords: Competition,Frequency Control,Minute Reserve Power,Regulation,Productive Efficiency,Welfare
    JEL: C33 C36 L59 L94
    Date: 2012
  9. By: Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID); Fundación Chile
    Abstract: Este documento presenta el caso exitoso de mejora de la eficiencia energética en el Hotel Explora en San Pedro de Atacama. La empresa, mediante los aportes del BID-FOMIN - a través del "Programa de promoción de oportunidades de energías limpias" - ejecutado por Fundación Chile, logró ahorros anuales de 60 millones, un retorno de la inversión de 1 a 3 años, y un ahorro de emisiones de CO2 de 140 toneladas al año. En el documento se explican los pormenores financieros y técnicos del proyecto.
    Keywords: Energía y minería :: Eficiencia energética, Ciencia y tecnología :: Nuevas tecnologías, Energía y minería :: Petróleo, carbón y gas natural, Sector privado, lessons learned, case study, estudio de caso, lecciones aprendidas
    Date: 2012–03
  10. By: Amecke, Hermann; Neuhoff, Karsten; Stelmakh, Kateryna
    Abstract: Der Gebäudesektor ist ein Schlüsselsektor des Energiekonzepts der Bundesregierung, unter anderem da sich in diesem Sektor ein Großteil der CO2 Emissionen mit Gewinn einsparen lässt (Levine et al. 2007). Bisher führt allerdings nur ein geringer Teil der Wohngebäudebesitzer umfassende energetische Gebäudesanierungen durch; die angestrebte Sanierungsrate von 2% liegt somit noch in weiter Ferne (BBSR 2011; Diefenbach et al. 2010). Um dies zu ändern, diskutiert der Vermittlungsausschuss zurzeit, ob Wohngebäudebesitzer eine steuerliche Förderung für Sanierungen auf KfW 85 erhalten sollen. Kern der derzeitigen Diskussionen ist die Kostenverteilung der Steuerförderung über Bund und Länder. Neben dieser Verteilungsfrage wirft der gegenwärtige Gesetzesentwurf aber weitere Fragen auf, die für die Kosten und Nutzen des Gesetzes entscheidend sind. Aufgrund der Erfahrung von Praktikern der Gebäudesanierung mit den folgenden Fragen, haben wir eine Umfrage unter 78 Architekten, Bauingenieuren, Handwerkern, Energieberatern und weiteren Praktikern durchgeführt. --
    Keywords: Energetische Sanierung,Steuervergünstigungen,schrittweise Sanierungen
    JEL: H31 R38 Q48
    Date: 2012–01–18
  11. By: Frank J. van Rijnsoever; Leon Welle; Sjoerd Bakker
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to empirically examine the influence of different types of credibility on the legitimacy to grant individual actors within consortia an innovation subsidy. Theorizing from the viewpoint of resource dependence theory and the sociology of expectations, we hypothesize that four types of credibility are related to legitimacy: scientific credibility, market credibility, expectation track record, and social capital. We operate on two levels of analysis, the actor and the consortium. We quantitatively analyze the Dutch electric vehicle subsidy program as case. We develop a model that accurately forecasts which consortia are most likely to receive subsidies. We demonstrate that social capital and market credibility positively influence the likelihood of receiving innovation subsidies, while scientific credibility sources and expectation track record have a negative influence. Based on these findings we provide policy recommendations and avenues for further research.
    Keywords: Electric Vehicle Technology; Expectations; Resource Dependence Theory; Credibility; Legitimacy; Innovation Policy
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Strand, Jon
    Abstract: This paper studies interactions between a"policy bloc's"emissions quota market and an offset market where emissions offsets can be purchased from a non-policy"fringe"of countries (such as for the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol). Policy-bloc firms enjoy free quota allocations, updated according to either past emissions or past outputs. Both overall abatement and the allocation of given abatement between the policy bloc and the fringe are then inefficient. When the policy-bloc quota and offset markets are fully integrated, firms buying offsets from the fringe, and all quotas and offsets, must be traded at a single price; the policy bloc will either not constrain the offset market whatsoever, or ban offsets completely. These cases occur when free allocation of quotas is less (very) generous, and the offset market delivers large (small) quota amounts. Governments of policy countries would instead prefer to buy offsets directly from the fringe at a price below the policy-bloc quota price. The offset price is then below the marginal damage cost of emissions and the quota price in the policy bloc is above the marginal damage cost. This is also inefficient as the policy bloc, acting as a monopsonist, purchases too few offsets from the fringe.
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Markets and Market Access,Energy Production and Transportation,Carbon Policy and Trading
    Date: 2012–11–01
  13. By: Heindl, Peter; Lutz, Benjamin
    Abstract: This paper examines the management practices of German firms with obligations under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) based on six structured in-depth interviews with managers of firms from different industries and based on survey data. The paper sheds light on management and trading practices, abatement behaviour, and the impact of the EU ETS on long-term decisions, such as investment decisions or innovative capacity. The aim is to provide information on firm-internal management processes related to the EU ETS and to strengthen intuition for microeconomic consequences of greenhouse gas regulation in a cap-and-trade scheme. The analysis reveals that management practices in the EU ETS are mainly driven by emission levels, firm size, pre-existing management structures and production patterns. While larger emitters (about 100,000 tCO2 per year or larger) are perfectly capable to carry out all relevant tasks, smaller emitters behave more passively due to transaction costs and lower expected return of transactions. Our analysis suggests that institutional responds to regulation should be taken into account for the design of greenhouse gas regulation. --
    Keywords: Carbon Management,Emissions Trading,EU ETS
    JEL: L60 Q50 M11
    Date: 2012
  14. By: Matthias Weitzel; Joydeep Ghosh; Sonja Peterson; Basanta K. Pradhan
    Abstract: In order to reach the two degree target it is necessary to control CO2 emissions also in fast growing emerging economies such as India. The question is how the Indian economy would be affected by e.g. including the country into an international climate regime. Existing analyses with either a global model or a single country computable general equilibrium model miss important aspects such as distributional issues or international repercussions. By soft-linking models of these two classes, we provide a more detailed view on these issues. In particular, we analyze different options of transferring revenues from domestic carbon taxes and international transfers to different household types and how different assumptions on exchange rates affect transfer payments. We also show effects stemming from international price repercussions. Our analysis focusses on how these transmission channels affect welfare of nine different household types
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Model, International Climate Policy, India
    JEL: C68 O53 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2012–11

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