|
on Energy Economics |
|
Issue of 2012‒11‒11
thirty-one papers chosen by Roger Fouquet Basque Climate Change Centre, Bilbao, Spain |
| By: | Neuhoff, Karsten; Amecke, Hermann; Novikova, Aleksandra; Stelmakh, Kateryna |
| Abstract: | The German government has committed to reducing the primary energy demand of buildings by 80% by 2050. Achieving this reduction will require foremost efficiency improvements, with a first milestone of a 20% reduction in heat demand levels by 2020. Given that about 80% of today’s building stock will remain in place beyond 2050, thermal retrofit of this existing building stock is essential (Figure 1). At the current rate of retrofit, however, only a fraction of the required reduction in thermal energy demand will be reached by 2050. Therefore, both scale and depth of retrofit need to be increased: • The rate at which outer walls are being thermally retrofitted in Germany is currently ca. 0.8% per year for residential buildings; the government target for thermal retrofits is 2% [11]. Reaching this target will be more cost effective if thermal retrofits are linked to general, non-thermal retrofits that buildings owners pursue for non-energy related reasons (e.g. the current non-thermal retrofit rate, hence the retrofit rate that does not include energy efficiency improvements, for outside walls is 2.4%) [11]. • The depth of thermal retrofits today varies significantly, ranging from single measures delivering small overall improvements to deep comprehensive retrofits that may exceed the performance of new builds by up to 50%. Since a 2% retrofit rate only allows for each building to be retrofitted once before 2050, the overall efficiency improvement can only be achieved if all thermal retrofits are deep. -- |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency,thermal retrofit,residential buildings |
| JEL: | H31 Q48 R38 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:65868&r=ene |
| By: | Dieckhoener, Caroline (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln) |
| Abstract: | Improving energy efficiency is one of the three pillars of the European energy and climate targets for 2020 and has led to the introduction of several policy measures to promote energy efficiency. The paper analyzes the effectiveness of subsidies in increasing energy efficiency in residential dwellings. An empirical analysis is conducted in which the effectiveness of subsidies on the number of dwelling modernizations is investigated. Next, the impact of renovations on energy consumption is analyzed using a differences-indifferences-in-differences approach for modernizations made in given subsidy program periods, as well as for ownership status and household types for more than 5000 German households between 1992 and 2010. By controlling for socio-economic status, dwelling characteristics and macro-indicators, it becomes apparent that homeowners invest signi ficantly more and have significantly lower heating expenditures than their tenant counterparts. Thus, the landlord-tenant problem tends to broaden the energy efficiency gap. It is also found that the number of modernizations made by landlords does not increase with higher subsidies. However, the renovations made during the subsidy periods decrease the heating consumption of tenants. Given the conditions that homeowners already invest more in energy efficiency, they increase modernizations only slightly with increasing subsides. However, these modernizations during subsidy periods do not further decrease homeowners' energy consumption. Thus, the large part of the overall subsidies received by homeowners can be identifi ed as windfall pro ts. |
| Keywords: | Household behavior; econometric analysis; energy efficiency; demand modelling |
| JEL: | D12 Q51 R21 |
| Date: | 2012–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2012_017&r=ene |
| By: | Arie ten Cate |
| Abstract: | <p>The coming energy transition in residential neighbourhoods in the Netherlands is the result of the increasing cost of CO2 emission and the decreasing costs of solar PhotoVoltaics (PV) and alternative techniques of residential heating, namely Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and heat pump. </p><p>The optimal transition is found by minimizing the total discounted social costs of residential energy consumption and generation. Social costs include the cost of CO2 emission and the investment in the electric network. The model integrates economics and the electric constraints based on the Alternating Current (AC) network power flow.</p><p>The results indicate that in the optimal transition nearly all houses are going to use an air-to-water heat pump with auxiliary gas heating. This shift from gas to electricity depends very little on the future CO2 price or the network costs. Solar PV is not yet socially profitable at this moment.</p><p>The "business case" for a household, using private costs, includes taxes and excludes CO2 costs and uses a higher discount rate. In the resulting optimum no heat pumps are used. However, reducing the ratio of the electricity tax versus the gas tax moves the private optimum to the social optimum.</p><p>In order to use the model (with GAMS) or to verify table 18 (with Octave/Matlab), download the packed file below (If needed: rename it from .txt to .zip and unpack the file)</p> |
| JEL: | C61 Q42 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:222&r=ene |
| By: | Léautier, Thomas-Olivier (TSE,IAE) |
| Abstract: | The advent of "smart meters" will make possible Real Time Pricing of electricity: customers will face and react to wholesale spot prices, thus consumption of electric power will be aligned with its opportunity cost. This article determines the marginal value of a fraction of demand (or a consumer) switching to Real Time Pricing. First, it derives this marginal value for a simple yet realistic specification of demand. Second, using data from the French power market, it estimates that, for the vast majority of residential customers whose peak demand is lower than 6 kV A, the net surplus from switching to Real Time Pricing is lower than 1 euro/year for low demand elasticity, 4 euros/year for high demand elasticity. This finding casts a doubt on the economic value of rolling out smart meters to all residential customers, for both policy makers and power suppliers. |
| Keywords: | electric power markets, demand response, smart grid |
| JEL: | D61 L11 L94 |
| Date: | 2012–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:26342&r=ene |
| By: | Gilles Vermot Desroches (Schneider Electric - {-}); Thomas André (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | Universal access to clean energy is a major worldwide concern which has been reaffirmed when 2012 was declared by the United Nations as the International Year of Sustainable Energy for All. Within that framework, multinational corporations are developing inclusive business approaches targeting lowincome populations. To be considered successful, these strategies must participate to development, be sustainable, and impact as many people as possible. We explore the case of Schneider Electric's BipBop programme which aims at promoting access to reliable, affordable and clean energy to the people who need it the most. We provide first key factors contributing to a broader combination of poverty eradication and protection of the environment from multinational corporations: engagement of top management; programme alignment with the strategy of the firm; incorporation of the Groups' entities; balancing global and local actions; measuring social and environmental results. |
| Keywords: | Base of the Pyramid, Bottom of the Pyramid, inclusive business, Access to Energy, BipBop, Schneider Electric |
| Date: | 2012–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00744236&r=ene |
| By: | Mañé Estrada, Aurèlia; Soldevila Lafon, Maria Victòria; Cámara Arilla, Carmen de la; Puig Gómez, Albert |
| Abstract: | The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia |
| Keywords: | Energia, Àsia central, 338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió, control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/203154&r=ene |
| By: | Teguh Dartanto (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | An increase in world oil prices has forced the government of Indonesia to run a larger budget deficit to finance energy subsidies. Between 2000 and 2011, Indonesia burnt 61 per cent of oil and gas revenues to fuel and electricity subsidies. These subsidies worsen income distribution in Indonesia since almost 72 per cent of these subsidies are enjoyed by the 30 per cent of the richest income groups. Therefore, there are strong economic arguments to reallocate fuel subsidies to infrastructures, education and health sectors that can boast economic growth. Applying a CGE-Microsimulation, this study found that removing 25 per cent of fuel subsidies increases the incidence of poverty by 0.253 per cent. If this money were fully allocated to government spending, the poverty incidence would decrease by 0.270 per cent. Moreover, the 100 per cent removal of fuel subsidies and the reallocation of 50 per cent of them to government spending, transfers and other subsidies could decrease the incidence of poverty by 0.277 per cent. However, these reallocation policies might not be effective to compensate the adverse impacts of the 100 per cent removal of fuel subsidies if economic agents try to seek gain through mark-up pricing over the increase of production costs. |
| Keywords: | fuel subsidies, fiscal balance, poverty, Indonesia, energy policy |
| JEL: | C68 I32 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201206&r=ene |
| By: | Yazid Dissou (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, 120 University St., Ottawa,Ontario); Lilia Karnizova (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, 120 University St., Ottawa,Ontario); Qian Sun (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, 120 University St., Ottawa,Ontario) |
| Abstract: | Despite substantial interest in the role of energy in the economy, the degree of substitutability between energy and other production inputs, and the way energy should be included in the production function remain unresolved issues. Our study provides industry-level parameter estimates of two-level constant elasticity of substitution (CES) functions that include capital, labour and energy inputs and allow for technological change for Canada. In contrast to many existing studies, we do not impose prior restrictions on the order of input nesting, and we report the estimates for three possible specifications. We find that a nested production structure which first combines labour and energy into a composite good that is then combined with capital, fits the Canadian data best, in terms of respecting the restrictions imposed by cost minimization. We also find rather low elasticities of substitution between capital and labour, and limited evidence of exogenous technological change. |
| Keywords: | energy; elasticity of substitution; CES function; industry estimates |
| JEL: | E23 Q41 Q43 Q55 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:1214e&r=ene |
| By: | René Aïd (FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine - CREST - EDF R&D, EDF R&D - EDF); Luciano Campi (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, LAGA - Laboratoire Analyse, Géométrie et Application - CNRS : UMR7539 - Université Paris XIII - Paris Nord - Université Paris VIII - Vincennes Saint-Denis); Nicolas Langrené (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - CNRS : UMR7599 - Université Paris VI - Pierre et Marie Curie - Université Paris VII - Paris Diderot); Huyên Pham (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - CNRS : UMR7599 - Université Paris VI - Pierre et Marie Curie - Université Paris VII - Paris Diderot) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions, and of the truncating time horizon. To make the method viable for problems in high dimension and long time horizon, we extend a memory reduction method to the general Euler scheme, so that, when performing the numerical resolution, the storage of the Monte Carlo simulation paths is not needed. Then, we apply this algorithm to a model of optimal investment in power plants. This model takes into account electricity demand, cointegrated fuel prices, carbon price and random outages of power plants. It computes the optimal level of investment in each generation technology, considered as a whole, w.r.t. the electricity spot price. This electricity price is itself built according to a new extended structural model. In particular, it is a function of several factors, among which the installed capacities. The evolution of the optimal generation mix is illustrated on a realistic numerical problem in dimension eight, i.e. with two different technologies and six random factors. |
| Keywords: | Optimal switching;Monte Carlo;empirical regressions;electricity market;structural model;capacity expansion |
| Date: | 2012–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00747229&r=ene |
| By: | Ren\'e A\"id (FiME Lab); Luciano Campi (CREST, LAGA); Nicolas Langren\'e (LPMA); Huy\^en Pham (CREST, LPMA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions, and of the truncating time horizon. To make the method viable for problems in high dimension and long time horizon, we extend a memory reduction method to the general Euler scheme, so that, when performing the numerical resolution, the storage of the Monte Carlo simulation paths is not needed. Then, we apply this algorithm to a model of optimal investment in power plants. This model takes into account electricity demand, cointegrated fuel prices, carbon price and random outages of power plants. It computes the optimal level of investment in each generation technology, considered as a whole, w.r.t. the electricity spot price. This electricity price is itself built according to a new extended structural model. In particular, it is a function of several factors, among which the installed capacities. The evolution of the optimal generation mix is illustrated on a realistic numerical problem in dimension eight, i.e. with two different technologies and six random factors. |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1210.8175&r=ene |
| By: | Katia Rocha; Ajax Moreira; Rodrigo Limp |
| Abstract: | O estudo analisa os determinantes dos altos deságios no setor de transmissão de energia elétrica no Brasil entre 1999 e 2010 através de um modelo econométrico baseado no modelo de Roy e estimador de Heckman (1979) que considera a heterogeneidade entre os lances vencedores e perdedores, e a endogeneidade desta clivagem. A partir do conjunto total de lances, explicita-se a heterogeneidade entre os grupos e corrige-se o respectivo viés devido à endogeneidade desta classificação. O objeto de pesquisa se justifica uma vez que estudos que se focam apenas nos lances vencedores e que ignoram a correção em virtude da endogeneidade da seleção do grupo vencedor podem conduzir a conclusões impróprias. Conclui-se que: i) lances realizados por estatais (líderes ou isoladas) têm 50% de probabilidade de vencer o lote; ii) na maioria dos lances vencedores, as estatais têm entrado em consórcios com grupos privados nacionais; iii) a probabilidade de vencer os leilões está relacionada a ganhos de escala devido à existência prévia de investimentos na região do lote a ser leiloado; iv) os altos deságios são em parte explicados pelo menor risco Brasil e maior rentabilidade do empreendimento, sendo mais importantes na determinação dos deságios dos lances vencedores que dos perdedores, provavelmente devido ao seu melhor conjunto de atributos e informações; v) o grau de concorrência aumenta os deságios com efeito não linear; e vi) a média dos deságios dos lances classificados como destoantes (36%) é praticamente o dobro da média dos demais deságios (23%), sendo praticados principalmente pela estatal líder que apresentar o maior número (57%) de lances destoantes com deságios médios da ordem de 40%, indicando maior propensão à característica conhecida como "maldição do vencedor". This study investigates the determinants of the great difference between winning bids and reserve prices in the transmission electricity sector in Brazil between 1999- 2010, through an econometric approach based on Heckman (1979) that considers the heterogeneous among the winner`s and loser`s bids, and the endogeneity of that selection. Given the whole data of winner`s and loser`s bids, the heterogeneity of the groups is modeled and endogeneity bias classification is corrected. The object of i. The versions in English of the abstracts of this series have not been edited by Ipea`s editorial department. As versões em língua inglesa das sinopses (abstracts) desta coleção não são objeto de revisão pelo Editorial do Ipea. this research is justified since studies that focus just on winning bids or ignore the endogeneity of the winning group selection could lead to misleading conclusions. Results can be summarize as follows: i) bids made by state public companies have 50% probability to win the auction; ii) the majority of winning bids come from state public companies in partnership to private national groups; iii) winning probability is related to previous investments made in the bid area due to economies of scale; iv) the great difference between reserve price and winning bids are partly explained by the improvements in Brazil country risk and the profitability of the project, being more important for winners than losers probably due to the better set of information and effectiveness of the winning group; v) the number of competitors decreases the bids but with non linear effects; and vi) outlier bids made by public companies represent 57% of total outliers with an average bid of 40% less than the reserve price, indicating the winner`s curse characteristic. |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1703&r=ene |
| By: | Farid Gasmi; Juan Daniel Oviedo |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model of the regulator-regulated firm relationship in a regional natural gas commodity market which can be linked to a competitive market by a pipeline. We characterize normative policies under which the regulator, in addition to setting the level of the capacity of the pipeline, regulates the price of gas, under asymmetric information on the firm’s technology, and may (or may not) operate (two-way) transfers between consumers and the firm. We then focus on capacity and investigate how its level responds to the regulator’s taking account of the firm’s incentive compatibility constraints. The analysis yields some insights on the role that transport capacity investments may play as an instrument to improve the efficiency of geographically isolated markets. |
| Date: | 2012–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:010074&r=ene |
| By: | Hugo Bolzon (IUL - Institut d'urbanisme de Lyon - Université Lumière - Lyon II, EVS - Environnement Ville Société - CNRS : UMR5600 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - École Normale Supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | Ce mémoire vient questionner l'accès à l'énergie en Tunisie par le cas du développement du réseau de gaz naturel dans l'agglomération sfaxienne. À la croisée de thématiques comme les services urbains en réseau ou encore la ville durable dans les pays arabes, l'enjeu est ici d'analyser les logiques d'accès à l'énergie dans une perspective de rétroaction entre le local et le national. La problématique de l'efficience énergétique dans les villes tunisiennes doit être appréhendée dans toute sa globalité, afin de déterminer clairement quelles sont les causes des difficultés rencontrées. La diminution des ressources énergétiques par rapport à la demande croissante et la saisie du concept de développement durable sont à l'origine d'une nouvelle orientation de la politique énergétique tunisienne, dont les villes sont le support privilégié. L'application de ces mesures se révèle parfois bien éloignée des effets d'annonce, notamment en ce qui concerne le paramètre de durabilité, nouveau fourre-tout constamment invoqué par les décideurs politiques. En conséquence, les modalités d'accès à l'énergie s'en trouvent modifiées, et constituent un nouveau lieu de discrimination sociale ; peut-on pour autant parler de fragmentation urbaine ? |
| Keywords: | fragmentation urbaine, services urbains en réseau, développement durable, gaz naturel, politique énergétique, accès à l'énergie, agglomération sfaxienne, Tunisie, splintering urbanism, urban network services, sustainable development, natural gas, energy policy, energy access, Sfax, Tunisia |
| Date: | 2012–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:dumas-00745821&r=ene |
| By: | Farid Gasmi; Juan Daniel Oviedo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes some optimal fiscal, pricing, and capacity investment policies for controlling regional monopoly power in the natural gas industry. By letting the set of control instruments available to the social planner vary, we provide a characterization of the technological and demand conditions under which “excess” capacity in the transport network arises in response to the loss of the two other control instruments, namely, transfers and pricing. Hence, the analysis yields some insights on an economy’s incentives to invest in infrastructures for the purpose of integrating geographically isolated markets. |
| Date: | 2012–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:010073&r=ene |
| By: | Dubois, Maarten (KU Leuven, HUBrussel) |
| Abstract: | Although intra-European trade of combustible waste has grown strongly in the last decade, incineration and landfill taxes remain heterogeneous within Europe. A review of taxation schemes in North Western Europe shows that current heterogeneity does not constitute a level playing field for waste processing industries in different regions. The paper proposes a more coherent taxation strategy for Europe that is based on the principle of Pigovian taxation. The strategy aims to create a level playing field between European regions while reinforcing incentives for sustainable management of combustible waste. Three important policy recommendations emerge. First, integrating waste incineration into the European carbon Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) reduces the risk of tax competition between regions. Second, because taxation of every single air pollutant from waste incineration is cumbersome, a differentiated waste incineration tax based on NOx emissions can serve as a second-best instrument. Finally, in order to strengthen incentives for ash treatment, a landfill tax should apply for landfilled incineration residues. An example illustrates the coherence of the policy recommendations for incineration technologies with diverse environmental effects. |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hub:wpecon:201236&r=ene |
| By: | David C Broadstock (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China and Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey, UK.); Hong Cao (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China); Dayong Zhang (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the current literature by adopting dynamic conditional correlation and asset pricing models to discover how the dynamics of international oil prices affect energy related stock returns in China. After conditioning for structural instability, the results show a much stronger relation following the 2008 financial crisis. We argue that this reflects the fact that investors in the Chinese stock market, especially for energy related stocks, are more sensitive to the shocks in international crude oil market. |
| Keywords: | Oil Prices, Energy Related Stocks, DCC, Asset Pricing, Structural Break. |
| JEL: | G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:137&r=ene |
| By: | Ine Van Robays (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the uncertain regime, or in other words, that both oil curves become steeper when uncertainty is high. The difference in oil demand elasticities is both statistically and economically meaningful. Accordingly, varying uncertainty about the macroeconomy can explain time variation in the oil price elasticity and hence in oil price volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. JEL Classification: E31, E32, Q41, Q43 |
| Keywords: | Oil prices, uncertainty, price elasticity, threshold VAR, sign restrictions |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121479&r=ene |
| By: | Cashin, P.; Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M.; Raissi, M. |
| Abstract: | We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output. |
| Keywords: | Global VAR (GVAR), interconnectedness, global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks. |
| JEL: | C32 E17 F44 F47 Q41 |
| Date: | 2012–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1249&r=ene |
| By: | Pedro Silva Barros; Giorgio Romano Schutte; Luiz Fernando Sanná Pinto |
| Abstract: | O objetivo deste estudo é analisar as implicações econômicas, políticas e estratégicas das transformações do cenário energético brasileiro, considerando seus possíveis impactos sobre a inserção internacional do país. Para tanto, traça-se o panorama energético global discutindo o papel dos principais players do setor na evolução recente dos preços do petróleo e da parcela representada por cada fonte de energia na oferta global. Em seguida, há seções sobre a importância geopolítica do desenvolvimento das indústrias de petróleo, de etanol e nuclear no Brasil, apontando as tendências e os debates de cada segmento. Da análise, conclui-se que o esforço brasileiro de evitar restrições energéticas ao processo de desenvolvimento, além de ter garantidas a diversificação da matriz e a autossuficiência, encetou progressos tecnológicos e institucionais muito relevantes para as indústrias do setor, de modo a criar as condições para que, hoje, o país desponte como um relevante exportador líquido de energia. Palavras-Chave: Energia; Brasil; Petróleo; Etanol; Nuclear The objective of this paper is to analyze the implications of the economic, strategic and political transformation of the Brazilian energetic scenario, considering their possible impact on the country`s international insertion. For this purpose, a global energy outlook will be presented, which discusses the role of key players in the sector recent developments in oil prices and the participation of the different energy sources in global supply. Subsequently, the article will analyze the geopolitical importance of oil, nuclear and ethanol industries evolution in Brazil, highlighting trends and debates in each segment. The analysis concludes that the effort to avoid energy constraints to the development process, besides having achieved diversification of the energetic matrix and self-sufficiency, started off relevant institutional and technological progress in the various energy industries, which created the conditions that, currently, made the country emerge as a relevant net energy exporter. Key-Words: Energy; Brazil; Oil; Ethanol; Nuclear |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1725&r=ene |
| By: | Carlos Eduardo Ramos Xavier Junior |
| Abstract: | Os impactos da exploração e produção (E&P) de grandes reservas de petróleo e gás natural sobre a economia de um país são bastante controversos. Certos países têm demonstrado incapacidade de se desenvolver com base nestes recursos enquanto outros conseguem atingir o sucesso. Um importante fator nessa equação são as regras de conteúdo local (CL), que podem obrigar a indústria petroleira a utilizar insumos nacionais, podendo influenciar positivamente ou negativamente o resultado obtido. Este trabalho analisa o caso brasileiro com base na experiência internacional e conclui que, apesar de já ter obtido certo grau de sucesso, a política brasileira de CL deve ser melhorada com o objetivo de minimizar o risco de ocorrência da Doença Holandesa de modo a: i) fortalecer o papel da Coordenação de Conteúdo Local da Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) de fiscalização e transparência; ii) conhecer melhor os desdobramentos da indústria petrolífera para a economia nacional; e iii) considerar capacidade e potencial de especialização da indústria nacional. Palavras-chave: Brasil; recursos minerais; petróleo; desenvolvimento econômico; conteúdo local. The impacts of the exploration and production of large oil and gas reserves in a national economy are controversial. Several countries have shown a lack of capacity to develop based on these resources, while others achieve success. One important part of this equation are the local content rules adopted, that may force the oil companies into buying locally-produced supplies, which may influence the results attained either positively or negatively. The present work analyses the Brazilian case based on the international experience and concludes that, despite attaining a certain degree of success, the Brazilian local content policy should be enhanced as a way to minimize the risks of contracting the Dutch Disease by i) strengthening the controlling and transparency responsibilities of the local content coordination at ANP; ii) acknowledging the consequences of the oil industry to the national economy; and iii) considering the capability and specialization potential of the national industry.. Keywords: Brazil; mineral resources; petroleum; economic development; local content. |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1775&r=ene |
| By: | Julien Daubanes; Pierre Lasserre |
| Abstract: | The interaction of supply and demand is at the root of market and other equilibria. Yet no systematic synthetic treatment of non-renewable resource supply exists; equilibrium analyses or welfare statements usually are formulated without any systematic decomposition into supply and demand. In this note, we examine the supply decision of individual non-renewable resource suppliers facing given prices. We establish instantaneous restricted (fixed reserves, treated as capital) and unrestricted supply functions. We decompose the effect of a price change into an intertemporal substitution effect and a stock compensation effect. The later arises when the stock of reserves to be extracted is endogenous. We show that the substitution effect always dominates so that a price increase at some date always causes supply to decrease at all other dates. Thus, despite the formal resemblance of resource supply over the time space with demand over the spectrum of goods, there is no such thing as a possible complementarity between resources extracted at different dates. Yet, as this theory of non-renewable resource supply makes clear, this is what researchers seeking exceptions to the green paradox are trying to identify. Nor is there any peculiarity similar to the Giffen paradox or to the inferior good paradox in resource supply. Besides unifying the treatment of conventional good supply and non-renewable resource supply, this theoretical exercise also shows how to avoid supply aggregation problems that make several existing results or modeling approaches questionable. The properties, first established within a parsimonious model, are shown to hold in a very general setup. <P> |
| Keywords: | Non-renewable resource supply, Price effect, Stock effect, Substitution effect, Supply theory, Demand theory, Green paradox, |
| Date: | 2012–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2012s-28&r=ene |
| By: | David Popp |
| Abstract: | By reducing the costs of environmental protection, technological change is important for promoting green growth. This entails both the creation of new technologies and more widespread deployment of existing green technologies. This paper reviews the literature on environmentally friendly technological change, with a focus on lessons relevant to developing countries. I begin with a discussion of data available for measuring the various steps of technological change. I continue with a discussion of sources of environmental innovation. Given that most innovation is concentrated in a few rich countries, this leads to a discussion of the remaining role for lower-income countries, followed by a discussion of technology transfer. Because of the importance of market failures, I then discuss the role of both technology policy and environmental policy for promoting environmentally friendly technological change. The review concludes with a discussion of what environmental economists can learn from other fields. |
| JEL: | Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18506&r=ene |
| By: | Pandelis Mitsis |
| Abstract: | The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is a relationship across countries between the level of environmental pollution and per capita GDP. This paper investigates the strength of empirical evidence in favour of the existence for an EKC in carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for the model uncertainty created by the numerous candidate regressors proposed in the literature. Using model averaging methods, I find strong evidence in favour of the existence of EKC in carbon dioxide emissions. In contrast, evidence in favour of the significance of many of the additional regressors disappears once model uncertainty is accounted for and robustness is examined. The conclusion reached is that social policy may influence environmental degradation, for which an eventual deterioration is signalled. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve; Model uncertainty; Income inequality |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:16-2012&r=ene |
| By: | Richard Jensen (Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame); Steven Lugauer (Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the age distribution's impact on carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2006 by exploiting demographic variation in a panel of 46 countries. To eliminate potential bias from endogeneity or omitted variables, we instrument for the age distribution with lagged birth rates, and the regressions control for total population, output, and country and year fixed effects. The increase in the share of the population aged 35 to 49 accounts for a large portion of the observed increase in carbon dioxide emissions. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Dioxide Emissions |
| JEL: | Q4 J1 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nod:wpaper:004&r=ene |
| By: | Teixidó Figueras, Jordi; Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio |
| Abstract: | Scarcities of environmental services are no longer merely a remote hypothesis. Consequently, analysis of their inequalities between nations becomes of paramount importance for the achievement of sustainability in terms either of international policy, or of Universalist ethical principles of equity. This paper aims, on the one hand, at revising methodological aspects of the inequality measurement of certain environmental data and, on the other, at extending the scarce empirical evidence relating to the international distribution of Ecological Footprint (EF), by using a longer EF time series. Most of the techniques currently important in the literature are revised and then tested on EF data with interesting results. We look in depth at Lorenz dominance analyses and consider the underlying properties of different inequality indices. Those indices which fit best with environmental inequality measurements are CV2 and GE(2) because of their neutrality property, however a trade-off may occur when subgroup decompositions are performed. A weighting factor decomposition method is proposed in order to isolate weighting factor changes in inequality growth rates. Finally, the only non-ambiguous way of decomposing inequality by source is the natural decomposition of CV2, which additionally allows the interpretation of marginal term contributions. Empirically, this paper contributes to the environmental inequality measurement of EF: this inequality has been quite stable and its change over time is due to per capita vector changes rather than population changes. Almost the entirety of the EF inequality is explainable by differences in the means between the countries of the World Bank group. This finding suggests that international environmental agreements should be attempted on a regional basis in an attempt to achieve greater consensus between the parties involved. Additionally, source decomposition warns of the dangers of confining CO2 emissions reduction to crop-based energies because of the implications for basic needs satisfaction. Keywords: ecological footprint; ecological inequality measurement, inequality decomposition. |
| Keywords: | Home -- Influència sobre la natura, Medi ambient -- Indicadors, 33 - Economia, 504 - Ciències del medi ambient, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/203168&r=ene |
| By: | Steven Poelhekke; Frederick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | We test for pollution haven effects in outward foreign direct investment (FDI) for different sectors using a comprehensive and exhaustive dataset for outward FDI from the Netherlands, one of the most environmentally stringent countries and a major source of global FDI. Our evidence suggests that in the sectors natural resources extraction and refining, construction, retail, food processing, beverages and tobacco, and utilities, a less stringent environmental policy in the host country significantly attracts FDI. What is important for these pollution haven effects is not only regulation but also enforcement of environmental policy. In contrast to earlier results, it is not only footloose industries that display pollution haven effects, but also the traditional pollution-intensive industries. But for the sectors machines, electronics and automotive and transportation and communication a more stringent and better enforced environmental policy attracts more FDI as this may help their reputation for sustainable management and CSR. These sectors display green haven effects. These findings have important implications for the sector distribution of FDI in destination countries. |
| Keywords: | pollution haven; green haven; FDI; environmental policy; regulation; enforcement; strategic effects; footloose industries; CSR |
| JEL: | F18 F23 F13 Q50 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:353&r=ene |
| By: | Habis , Helga (Department of Economics, Lund University); Csercsik, Dávid (Institute of Economics, Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new class of cooperative games where the worth of a coalition depends on the behavior of other players and on the state of nature as well. We allow for coalitions to form both before and after the resolution of uncertainty, hence agreements must be stable against both types of deviations. The appropriate extension of the classical core concept, the Sustainable Core, is defined for this new setup to test the stability of allocations in such a complex environment. A prominent application, a game of consumers and generators on an electrical energy transmission network is examined in details, where the power in- and outlets of the nodes have to be determined in a way, that if any line instantaneously fails, none of the remaining lines may be overloaded. We show that fulfilling this safety requirement in a mutually acceptable way can be achieved by choosing an element in the Sustainable Core. |
| Keywords: | partition function form games; uncertainty; core; sustainability |
| JEL: | C71 C73 D62 L14 L94 |
| Date: | 2012–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2012_027&r=ene |
| By: | Dieckhoener, Caroline (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Hecking, Harald (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a microeconomic approach to deduce greenhouse gas abatement cost curves of the residential heating sector. By accounting for household behavior, we find that welfare-based abatement costs are generally higher than pure technical equipment costs. Our results are based on a microsimulation of private households' investment decision for heating systems until 2030. The households' investment behavior in the simulation is derived from a discrete choice estimation which allows investigating the welfare costs of different abatement policies in terms of the compensating variation and the excess burden. We simulate greenhouse gas abatements and welfare costs of carbon taxes and subsidies on heating system investments until 2030 to deduce abatement curves. Given utility maximizing households, our results suggest a carbon tax to be the welfare efficient policy. Assuming behavioral misperceptions instead, a subsidy on investments might have lower marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs than a carbon tax. |
| Keywords: | Household behavior; discrete choice; Pigou; greenhouse gas abatement costs |
| JEL: | C35 C61 Q47 Q53 R21 |
| Date: | 2012–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2012_016&r=ene |
| By: | Gemechu, Eskinder D.; Butnar, Isabela; Llop Llop, Maria; Castells i Piqué, Francesc |
| Abstract: | CO2 emissions induced by human activities are the major cause of climate change; hence, strong environmental policy that limits the growing dependence on fossil fuel is indispensable. Tradable permits and environmental taxes are the usual tools used in CO2 reduction strategies. Such economic tools provide incentives to polluting industries to reduce their emissions through market signals. The aim of this work is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental tax on Spanish products and services. We apply an environmentally extended input-output (EIO) model to identify CO2 emission intensities of products and services and, accordingly, we estimate the tax proportional to these intensities. The short-term price effects are analyzed using an input-output price model. The effect of tax introduction on consumption prices and its influence on consumers’ welfare are determined. We also quantify the environmental impacts of such taxation in terms of the reduction in CO2 emissions. The results, based on the Spanish economy for the year 2007, show that sectors with relatively poor environmental profile are subjected to high environmental tax rates. And consequently, applying a CO2 tax on these sectors, increases production prices and induces a slight increase in consumer price index and a decrease in private welfare. The revenue from the tax could be used to counter balance the negative effects on social welfare and also to stimulate the increase of renewable energy shares in the most impacting sectors. Finally, our analysis highlights that the environmental and economic goals cannot be met at the same time with the environmental taxation and this shows the necessity of finding other (complementary or alternative) measures to ensure both the economic and ecological efficiencies. Keywords: CO2 emissions; environmental tax; input-output model, effects of environmental taxation. |
| Keywords: | Emissions atmosfèriques, Anhídrid carbònic, Medi ambient -- Impostos, Anàlisi d'entrada/sortida, 336 - Finances. Banca. Moneda. Borsa, 504 - Ciències del medi ambient, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/203166&r=ene |
| By: | Jérôme Trotignon (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | L'Equation de Kaya exprime les émissions de CO2 d'un pays en fonction de facteurs économique, démographique et énergétique. Plusieurs travaux décomposent par période, à partir de cette équation, les effets sur les émissions brésiliennes des variables de population, de PIB par tête, d'intensité énergétique (contenu en énergie du PIB) et d'intensité carbonique (contenu en carbone de l'énergie). Mais ils ne tiennent pas compte des émanations de CO2 engendrées par le secteur UTCATF. Pour pallier cet inconvénient et mieux éclairer les enjeux des politiques climatiques, nous proposons une analyse de décomposition des facteurs d'évolution des émissions qui inclut les statistiques du secteur UTCATF. Son influence dans la variation des émissions totales s'avère prédominante, aussi bien comme stimulant sur la période de déforestation massive de 1994-2000, que comme modérateur de 2000 à 2005, année où s'ébauche le programme de déforestation évitée. |
| Keywords: | analyse de décomposition ; Brésil ; déforestation ; équation de Kaya ; facteurs d'émission de CO2 ; intensité carbonique ; intensité énergétique ; secteur UTCATF |
| Date: | 2012–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746524&r=ene |
| By: | Maria Bernadete Gomes Pereira Sarmiento Gutierrez |
| Abstract: | Ganha força no mundo ideia de que políticas ambientais e políticas comerciais devem ser formuladas de forma integrada, para que se garantam a consistência e a integridade das negociações climáticas. De forma complementar às negociações no âmbito da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre a Mudança do Clima (CQNUMC), alguns países já iniciaram ou estão considerando programas nacionais de limitação nas suas emissões de gases do efeito estufa (GEE), potencialmente se superpondo ao regime do comércio internacional. Destacam-se a União Europeia e os Estados Unidos como exemplos de formuladores de importantes programas para a mitigação nas suas emissões. Em ambos os casos, estes programas terão uma importante interface com as políticas comerciais. Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal mostrar como o comércio e o meio ambiente são questões que estarão crescentemente inter-relacionadas nos foros de negociações comerciais, e de sugerir como o Brasil, sendo país não anexo I, pode ter a competitividade de suas exportações afetadas. Palavras-chave: políticas ambientais; políticas comerciais; competitividade; tarifa ad valorem sobre o carbono. The idea that environmental and trade policies should be formulated in an integrated framework has been gaining momentum so that to ensure the integrity and consistency of climate change negotiations. In a complementary way to the negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), some countries have already started or are in the process of launching national mitigation plans for reducing greenhouse gases emissions which have an important interface to the international trade regime. The United States of America (USA) and the European Union (EU) are examples of countries in the process of considering important national plans for the mitigation of their emissions. In both cases, these programmes will have an important interface to trade policies. In this context, the main objective of this study is to highlight the increasingly interdependency of environmental and trade issues in international negotiations as well as to suggest how this might affect Brazilian competitiveness exports, recalling that Brazil is still a non Annex I country. Keywords: trade and environment; competitiveness; border trade adjustments. |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1772&r=ene |