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on Energy Economics |
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Issue of 2011‒12‒05
eleven papers chosen by Roger Fouquet Basque Climate Change Centre, Bilbao, Spain |
| By: | Timothy K.M. Beatty (University of Minnesota Institute for Fiscal Studies); Laura Blow (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Thomas F. Crossley (Koç University , University of Cambridge and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We merge detailed household level expenditure data from older households with historical local weather information. We then test for a heat or eat trade off: do households cut back on food spending to finance the additional cost of keeping warm during cold shocks? For households who cannot smooth consumption over time, cold weather shocks are equivalent to income shocks. We find evidence that the poorest of older households are unable to smooth spending over the worst temperature shocks. Statistically significant reductions in food spending are observed in response to winter temperatures two or more standard deviations colder than expected (which occur about one winter month in forty) and reductions in food expenditure are considerably larger in poorer households. |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1133&r=ene |
| By: | Thomas F. Crossley (Koç University , University of Cambridge and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (University of Cambridge and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Cormac O’Dea (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines trends in household consumption and saving behaviour in each of the last three recessions in the UK. The ‘Great Recession’ has been different from those that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. It has been both deeper and longer, but also the composition of the cutbacks in expenditure differs, with a greater reliance on cuts to nondurable expenditure than was seen in previous recessions, and the distributional pattern across individuals differs. The young have cut back expenditure more than the old, as have mortage holders compared to renters. By contrast, the impact of the recession has been similar across education groups. We present evidence that suggests that two aspects of fiscal policy in the UK in 2008 and 2009 - the temporary reduction in the rate of VAT and a car scrappage scheme – had some success in encouraging households to increase durable purchases. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Spending, Recessions |
| JEL: | E21 D12 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1132&r=ene |
| By: | Martin Bodenstein; Luca Guerrieri |
| Abstract: | The macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations vary according to their sources. Our estimated two-country DSGE model distinguishes between country-specific oil supply shocks, various domestic and foreign activity shocks, and oil efficiency shocks. Changes in foreign oil efficiency, modeled as factor-augmenting technology, were the key driver of fluctuations in oil prices between 1984 and 2008, but have modest effects on U.S. activity. A pickup in foreign activity played an important role in the 2003-2008 oil price runup. Beyond quantifying the responses of oil prices and economic activity, our model informs about the propagation mechanisms. We find evidence that nonoil trade linkages are an important transmission channel for shocks that affect oil prices. Conversely, nominal rigidities and monetary policy are not. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1031&r=ene |
| By: | Susanne Linder |
| Abstract: | At the moment, interest in electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing worldwide, mainly due to concerns about climate change and rising prices of fossil fuels. EVs still have some significant drawbacks compared to gasoline-powered cars. However, a small part of the population is expected to adopt this technology already within the next years, because higher purchase costs and lower driving range are of less concern to them. They are called the “Early Adopters†of EVs. In this study we developed scenarios for the spatial diffusion of EVs up to 2020 in private households in the municipalities and urban districts of the metropolitan region of Stuttgart in Germany. First, hypotheses of Early Adopters of EVs were constructed based on social mobility profiles and the demands of car drivers. Secondly, the number of these potential adopters was calculated with statistical data for each municipality and urban district. In a third step, we developed a Bass diffusion model with System Dynamics to simulate the spatial diffusion of EVs in the region of Stuttgart. The increase of EV-ownership in each Early Adopter-type in a single municipality depends on the chosen values of the parameters “Advertisement effectivenessâ€, “Contact Rate†and “Adoption Fraction†of the Bass model. Furthermore, neighbourhood effects were modeled such that the increase of EVs in one municipality also depends on the increase of EVs in the neighbouring municipalities. In the baseline scenario, significant spatial differences in the diffusion of EVs up to 2020 become apparent: the highest number of EV-holders will be found in the urban areas of the region. There exist also differences in the number of EVs present at each Early Adopter-type: The “Urban trend-setter†is prevalent in the central districts of Stuttgart, while the “Multi-car family†is mostly located in the more rural municipalities of the region of Stuttgart. The “Dynamic senior citizen†is almost equally distributed in the urban and rural areas. The results of the spatial distribution of potential adopters of EVs can be used for the automobile industry’s marketing campaigns as well as to identify the regional demand for EV charging infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p557&r=ene |
| By: | Katia Andrade; Lee Woods; Seiichi Kagaya |
| Abstract: | Around the world, cycling has mostly been used for two main purposes. Some societies view and utilize the bicycle as an integral part of the transportation system. Even if not used as the main transportation mode, it can still be used efficiently as a complementary transportation mode to public transit modes. The Netherlands and Denmark are examples of European countries where cycling accounts for high daily shares. Among Asian countries, Japan and China present significant cycling rates. However, as the contemporary societies grow more auto-dependent, cycling has been merely seen as a means of recreation and rarely used for daily travel in many other countries. Examples are the United States, Australia and Great Britain where nationwide statistics suggest insignificant bicycle shares. As part of a larger research project, this paper presents a preliminary discussion on the use of bicycle in two countries with significantly different cycling characteristics, Great Britain and Japan. In most British cities, cycling is not an integral part of the transportation system, despite considerable efforts from government. Conversely, cycling is a widely accepted transportation mode throughout Japan, even though Japanese cities do not yet present extensive cycling networks. Traditionally, Japanese urban plans are limited to two main actions with regards to cycling; either implementing bicycle parking facilities around railway/subway stations, or establishing bicycle zones within road intersections. The main objective of this paper is to present an overview of each country’s cycling system, with a focus on travel patterns and bicycle facilities. Initially, benefits from cycling are pointed out. Cycling trends are then compered, whilst bicycle infrastructure and service are summarized. The paper concludes by comparing transport policies and strategies towards cycling in these countries and discussing the relative merits of each approach. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1052&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Claude Thill; Chunhua Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how a respondent’s socioeconomic characteristics influence her willingness to support tax increases for spending on highway transportation infrastructure and four modes of public transportation (i.e., bus, light rail, commuter rail, and streetcar) in a fast growing urban area in the United States. We use and analyze detailed survey data at household level collected from a phone interview survey conducted in the Charlotte, North Carolina, area. We consider two types of response bias in the survey data. One is a systematic response bias which arises from protest zeros and respondents’ tendency to under-report their willingness. The other is from the randomized response when a respondent answers survey questions by guessing because she does not have memory or knowledge of the questions and choices. Along with random utility model, these two response bias models are estimated and compared to each other. Empirical results show that an individual’s attitudes towards paying higher taxes are affected by the individual’s location, home ownership, and the level of educational attainment. It is found that respondents tend to grossly under-report their willingness to support higher taxes for investments on highways, bus, and commuter rail in the survey. Respondents also exhibit positive tendency to choose no increase in taxes in the survey about highway, bus, and commuter rail, although they actually prefer an increase over no increase. They have positive chance of randomly choosing slightly higher taxes for more investment on streetcar whatever her true preference is. We discuss policy implications of the empirical results. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1449&r=ene |
| By: | M Davide Parrilli |
| Abstract: | Recently, service clusters have been identified, such as in the case of the logistics and transportation cluster in the Basque Country (e.g. transportation of people and ware, intelligent transport services, etc.) or that of port activities (warehousing services, loading-unloading of goods, shipping service, etc.). Simultaneously, several multi-sector clusters around a specific client are rising. It is the case of the child cluster in France or in Catalunya that includes much more than traditional clusters focused on a final homogeneous product; in fact this includes the production of toys, kids clothes, health products and furniture for children, among others, which belonged to separate sectors and clusters before. In addition to identifying new types of clusters that strengthen the visibility and work of their firms , the great majority of these clusters and districts, e.g. in the Basque Country, have become more ‘complex’ in depth (division and specialization of labor) and extension to a variety of activities that were quite separated from one another, though can now come together with the objective to respond to the new demand of local and global society. For instance, the demand for new renewable sources of energy promotes a change in sectoral/entrepreneurial attitudes, for which such diversified sectors as oil refinery, wind, maritime and solar energy, find representation in the same cluster association and recognize themselves as part of one 'complex' cluster that gains in visibility and scale of operations for global agents such as large industries, large scale construction projects, among others. The identification and the activity of such clusters and districts, sometimes associated in a specific locality, in other occasions to a wider territory, exhibit the growing awareness of the strengths and diversities of the territorial production fabric and the importance businesses and agents attribute to identifying themselves as such in order to develop joint initiatives that can generate important economies of scale and scope that help competing in the new globalized economy, particularly when these local production systems strive to open their way in global production networks and in international markets. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p969&r=ene |
| By: | Piet Rietveld; Erhan Demirel; Jos van Ommeren |
| Abstract: | Low water levels are a potential threat to the inland navigation market. We develop a theoretical model to analyze low water-level uncertainty in the inland navigation market. A negative effect of climate change on welfare is expected due to the increase in cost per tonne of transport when low water levels occur more frequently. The market actors may take measures to adapt to the new situation of climate change. As an example, we study barge-size adjustments by barge operators. We show that in the current market (both before and after climate change) there are incentives to almost double the barge size. The reason that this still has not occurred may be explained by the long lifetime of barges that are currently in use. Thus, climate change does not provide a reason to stop the current trend towards larger barges. The only effect is that this trend towards larger barges will end at a lower size than would be the case without climate change. The public sector may also take measures to decrease the harm caused by climate change. In this study we consider an investment in infrastructure by means of dredging. We find a benefit-cost ratio higher than for this for investments both before and after climate change. Thus, both with and without climate change, welfare would increase if government intensifies dredging. After climate change, public adaptation may be more important than private adaptation when the situation is optimal before climate change. For the combined effect of barge-size adjustment and infrastructure investment, it can be concluded that the benefit in terms of expected welfare is 'super-additive' for the situation before climate and also for the situation after climate change when starting from the current situation. This 'super-additivity' property can be attributed to the opportunity for barge operators to hold even larger barges in the new environment where low water is less harmful for their capacities. However, for the situation after climate change, when starting from an optimized situation, super-additivity no longer holds. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p85&r=ene |
| By: | Elena Gissi; Giuseppina Siciliano |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy sources, such as biomass can make a positive impact on climate change phenomenon by decreasing our dependence on fossil fuels. The use of biomass energy is directly linked to the use of the land, from which biomass feedstock is obtained, such as farm land and forests, and its ecosystem services. The biomass production and the use of land and ecosystem services are usually associated with a wide range of environmental and social impacts, depending on what choices are made regarding what types of biomass are used, as well as where and how they are produced. Choosing management practices that minimize negative impacts and complement planning policies and energy production objectives is often associated with land-use conflicts among both different institutional levels, local, national and European, and different social actors. Yet, European Directive 2009/28/CE establishes that the energy production from renewable energy by 2020, as well as from biofuel, defined for each member state (Annex 1), must be achieved through a “sustainable†production. Such definition is assigned to national and local contexts, arising issues in policy making, conflicts analysis and methodologies. The present paper discusses on the recent acknowledgment of the above mentioned EU directive in several Italian Regions, such as Puglia and Marche, which have defined regulations/guidelines regarding their potential contribution to the national objectives of production and consumption of energy from renewable sources (EFR). Moreover, the present paper confronts such regulations with results found in literature. Several analyses have been done on the energy production from biomass based on technical and economic aspects of the problem. However, few studies have applied integrated approaches able to take into consideration crucial aspects such as biodiversity conservation and landscape fragmentation, as required by EU Directive 2009/28/CE, side by side with the economic and social dimensions. This paper aims at filling this gap proposing the application of an integrated framework of analysis, based on multi-criteria approaches able to take into consideration socio-economic, environmental and landscape criteria, as well as institutional and social conflicts linked to the biomass production. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1413&r=ene |
| By: | Coro Chasco; Julie Le Gallo |
| Abstract: | Air quality is one of the major concerns in big cities. It is therefore of interest to evaluate properly air pollution. Specifically, this paper aims at measuring how air quality is incorporated in transaction prices in downtown Madrid. For that purpose, we use multilevel models since our sample is hierarchically organized into 3 levels. Our first-level consists of 5,080 house prices. The second level consists of 759 census tracts while the third level consists of 43 neighbourhoods. We have variables available for each level, individual characteristics for the first level and various socio-economic data for the other levels. The outline of the paper is as follows. First, we combine a set of noise and air pollutants measured at a number of monitoring stations available for each census tract. Second, we apply kriging to match the monitoring station records to the census data. Third, we estimate hedonic models in order to measure the marginal willingness to pay for air quality in downtown Madrid. While the conventional approach to estimate hedonic models is to use ordinary least squares, we exploit the hierarchical nature of our data and estimated multilevel models instead. These allow for a more reliable statistical inference. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p168&r=ene |
| By: | Carlos Azzoni; Eduardo Haddad |
| Abstract: | An integrated approach projects the economic impacts from climate change and adaptation and mitigation policies, explicitly considering the various territorial scales in Brazil (macro-regions, states, micro-regions, and networks of cities). A computable general equilibrium (GCE) model was used to simulate two climate change-free scenarios regarding the future of Brazil’s economy that are consistent with the global economic development trends under IPCC’s scenarios A2 and B2. Climate shocks, captured by the model through impacts on the agricultural/ livestock and energy sectors, were applied to these scenarios. The socio-economic trends of the scenarios with and without global climate change were reviewed in terms of benefits and costs for Brazil and its regions. The models interact with the agricultural/livestock and energy sector studies through variables such as energy generation and consumption for different sectors and regions, replacement of sources of energy in the production process and consumption by the residential sector, agricultural yields and land use, etc. These, in turn, are dependent on climate variables, future water supply and other economic factors. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p410&r=ene |