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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Winzer, C. |
| Abstract: | Energy security is one of the main targets of energy policy. However, the term has not been clearly defined, which makes it hard to measure and difficult to balance against other policy objectives. We review the multitude of definitions of energy security. They can be characterized according to the sources of risk, the scope of the impacts, and the severity filters in the form of the speed, size, sustention, spread, singularity and sureness of impacts. Using a stylized case study for three European countries, we illustrate how the selection of conceptual boundaries along these dimensions determines the outcome. This can be avoided by more clearly separating between security of supply and other policy objectives. This leads us to the definition of energy security as the continuity of energy supplies relative to demand. If security is defined from the perspective of private utilities, end consumers or public servants, the concept could further be reduced to the continuity of specific commodity or service supplies, or the impact of supply discontinuities on the continuity of the economy. |
| JEL: | N7 O13 Q4 |
| Date: | 2011–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1151&r=ene |
| By: | James Simpson; Kyung-Seok Min |
| Abstract: | Natural gas is of increasing importance in the energy mix of IEA Member countries. And yet this growing reliance on natural gas has been coupled with an increased risk of gas disruptions in recent years. Gas security is now an important policy concern for many IEA Member countries, and the IEA has sought to develop its expertise and analysis in this field.<p>This Working Paper looks at the possible remedies that are available for dealing with gas security concerns, and takes stock of developments in gas emergency policy in IEA Member countries. |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ieaaaa:2011/10-en&r=ene |
| By: | Bejamin Dachis (C.D. Howe Institute); Donald N. Dewees (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | After years of looming power shortages, Ontario faces instead a periodic problem of excess electricity supply at the same time that new generation capacity is being added. Since Ontario government agencies that purchase power have long-term, fixed-price contracts with many electricity generators, Ontario consumers pay for electricity produced by some generators even when that electricity has little value, particularly during periods of high wind production and low demand.For the long term, the province should create financial incentives for constructing flexible generation capacity. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth and Innovation, Ontario, Canada, power supply |
| JEL: | L94 L11 K10 K20 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdh:ebrief:120&r=ene |
| By: | Betzer, André (University of Wuppertal); Doumet, Markus (University of Mannheim); Rinne, Ulf (IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how policy changes affect shareholder wealth in the context of environmental regulation. We exploit the unique and unexpected German reaction to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, which involved the immediate shutdown of almost half of Germany’s nuclear reactors while safety checks were carried out, and a three-month moratorium on extending the lives of others. Using the event study methodology, our findings indicate a wealth transfer from nuclear energy companies to renewable energies companies in Germany. We moreover find that the joint market capitalization of these firms has decreased, but the amount of this combined decrease is small. Substantial heterogeneity in the shareholder wealth effects across European countries can be linked to different nuclear energy policies. The shareholder wealth of nuclear and conventional energy companies in the United States has been unaffected. |
| Keywords: | electric power, nuclear power, green economy, earthquake, tsunami, event study, environment |
| JEL: | Q48 Q54 G38 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5896&r=ene |
| By: | Margarita Kalamova; Chris Kaminker; Nick Johnstone |
| Abstract: | This report looks specifically at the full array of public policies promoting investment in the renewable energy sector, and discusses their impact on plant entry into the market, with the support of case studies focusing on Germany, the U.S.A. and Australia. It examines differing risk/return expectations across stages of the investment continuum (from R&D through to mergers and acquisitions) and the financial structures that are employed at each stage. Although transparency, predictability and longevity of government programmes are necessary if investors are to initiate a project in clean energy, predictability should not be mistaken for permanence. In the case where policies target investment in physical capital, it is important to ‘sunset’ many of the policies discussed in this report. It is the nature of entrepreneurship that not all investments in new activities will pay off and not all promotion efforts will be successful. Against such a backdrop, public investment policy will also frequently meet with failure. Combining continuous assessment with policy predictability is a delicate balancing act. Clear criteria for policy evaluation are required, and ideally the criteria for success should depend on productivity.<BR>Ce rapport s’intéresse plus particulièrement à l’éventail complet des politiques publiques encourageant l’investissement dans le secteur des énergies renouvelables, et analyse leurs effets sur l’entrée de nouvelles entreprises sur le marché, en s’appuyant sur des études de cas réalisées en Allemagne, aux États-Unis et en Australie. Il étudie les différentes attentes en termes de risque/rendement au cours des différentes phases du processus d’investissement (de la R-D jusqu’aux fusions-acquisitions), et les structures financières correspondantes. Bien que la transparence, la prévisibilité et la longévité des programmes publics soient nécessaires pour que les investisseurs se lancent dans les énergies propres, il ne faut pas confondre prévisibilité et permanence. Quand les politiques publiques ciblent l’investissement dans le capital physique, de nombreuses mesures examinées dans ce rapport doivent être mises de côté. Les entrepreneurs savent pertinemment que la totalité des investissements consacrés à de nouvelles activités, y compris les efforts de promotion, ne sont pas toujours fructueux. Dans ce contexte, les politiques d’investissement public se soldent souvent par un échec. Concilier évaluation continue et prévisibilité des politiques est un exercice d’équilibre délicat, qui doit reposer sur des critères d’évaluation clairement définis, dont le principal devrait idéalement être celui de productivité. |
| Keywords: | venture capital, environmental policy, climate change, Investment Policy, Renewable Energy Sources, Asset Finance, Financial Risk, capital-risque, changement climatique, énergies renouvelables, politique de l’environnement, politiques d’investissement, financement d'actifs, risque en capital |
| JEL: | G24 G32 G38 Q42 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2011–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:37-en&r=ene |
| By: | Kat Cheung |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper gives an overview of the status and challenges of integrating an increasing share of variable renewables in China, with a focus on areas of generation, power transmission, demand-side management and policy. Some of these areas are intertwined with the nature and design of China’s electricity power market and pricing mechanism, which have an impact on the effectiveness of the country’s targets to accommodate larger shares of renewables. |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ieaaaa:2011/9-en&r=ene |
| By: | Grant Allan (Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde); Michelle Gilmartin (Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domesticallyâ€based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ‘legacy’ effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy policy; regional economic impacts; computable general equilibrium modelling. |
| JEL: | C68 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:1129&r=ene |
| By: | Abebe Damte; Steven F. Koch |
| Abstract: | The heavy dependence and inefficient utilization of biomass resources have contributed to the depletion of forest resources in Ethiopia, while the use of traditional cooking technology, one source of inefficient biomass resource use, has been linked to indoor air pollution and poor health. In response, the government and other institutions have pushed for the adoption of new cooking technologies. This research examines the speed of adoption of Mirt and Lakech cook stoves — two examples of new cooking technologies — in urban Ethiopia. In terms of the duration analysis, adoption has been increasing over time; income and wealth are important contributors to adoption, and substitute technologies tend to hinder adoption. However, it was not possible to consider prices or perceptions related to either the technologies or biomass availability in the duration models, and, therefore, additional research is needed to inform policy further with respect to household technology adoption decisions. |
| Keywords: | immproved stoves Duration Adoption Urban Ethiopia |
| JEL: | D12 Q49 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:229&r=ene |
| By: | Polemis, Michail; Fotis , Panagiotis |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to a panel data error correction model (ECM) in order to measure the asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to input prices and exchange rate onto the wholesale and retail gasoline price respectively. For this purpose, we use an updated data set of weekly observations covering the period from January 2000 to February 2011 for eleven euro zone countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain). The results favor the common perception that retail and wholesale gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to cost increases and decreases. |
| Keywords: | Generalized method of moments; panel data; asymmetries; euro zone; error correction models |
| JEL: | C51 L11 C33 |
| Date: | 2011–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32755&r=ene |
| By: | Willem H. Boshoff |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the price and income elasticity of fuel demand in South Africa has featured prominently in energy and competition policy proceedings and in major corporate planning projects. The paper investigates the price and income elasticity of gasoline (petrol), diesel and jet fuel demand in South Africa. Such a study is essential, given the significant structural change in fuel consumption behaviour over the 1990s and the paper builds compare the results of econometric models based on a longer sample period covering 1982Q1 to 2010Q4 and a shorter sample period covering 1998Q1 to 2010Q4. The econometric model is based on an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, reduced to a parsimonious specification using an automated reduction algorithm. |
| Keywords: | gasoline petrol diesel jet fuel price elasticity income elasticity South Africa bounds test |
| JEL: | C22 R41 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:226&r=ene |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzin; Dominique M. Guillaume; Roman Zytek |
| Abstract: | On December 18, 2010, Iran increased domestic energy and agricultural prices by up to 20 times, making it the first major oil-exporting country to reduce substantially implicit energy subsidies. This paper reviews the economic and technical issues involved in the planning and early implementation of the reform, including the transfers to households and the public relations campaign that were critical to the success of the reform. It also looks at the reform from a chronological standpoint, in particular in the final phases of the preparation. The paper concludes by an overview of the main challenges for the second phase of the reform. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural prices , Banking sector , Corporate sector , Energy prices , Fiscal policy , Fiscal reforms , Legislation , Oil revenues , Price adjustments , Price increases , Subsidy payments , |
| Date: | 2011–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/167&r=ene |
| By: | Nese Erbil |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the cyclicality of fiscal behavior in 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs) during 1990-2009. After testing five fiscal measures - government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance - and correcting for reverse causality between non-oil output and fiscal variables, the results suggest that all of the five fiscal variables are strongly procyclical in the full sample. Also, the results are not uniform across income groups: expenditure is procyclical in the low and middle-income countries, while it is countercyclical in the high-income countries. Fiscal policy tends to be affected by the external financing constraints in the middle- and high-income groups. However, the quality of institutions and political structure appear to be more significant for the low-income group. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles , Cross country analysis , Developing countries , Economic models , Fiscal policy , Government expenditures , Nonoil sector , Oil producing countries , Oil revenues , |
| Date: | 2011–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/171&r=ene |
| By: | Stephen Perkins |
| Abstract: | Transport figures prominently on green growth agendas. The reason is twofold. First, transport has major environmental impacts in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, local air emissions and noise. And managing congestion more effectively is part of the broader agenda for more sustainable development and better use of resources invested in infrastructure. Second, a large part of public expenditure to stimulate green growth is directed at transport sector industries. This concerns most notably alternative vehicles, and particularly electric cars, a key part of strategies to decarbonise transport. Several countries also financed car scrapping and replacement schemes as a short term response to the 2008 financial crisis. The primary goal here was counter-cyclical stimulus for the car manufacturing industry with, in most cases, a secondary goal of reducing CO2 emissions and fuel consumption through fleet renewal. Some governments also include investment in high speed rail as a central element of longer term green growth policies, aiming at a shift in passenger traffic from cars and short haul aviation to rail. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2011/2-en&r=ene |
| By: | Tim Leunig |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that transport is more cart than horse, in that transport improvements are not the most important driver of economic growth for most countries. Nevertheless there are circumstances in which transport is particularly important. Big transport breakthroughs – such as replacing walking with railways, or creating a highways network for the first time – do have big effects, but these are unlikely to be seen again in developed economies. Instead transport in developed economies is best seen as having a supporting role. If it is neglected, it can constrain growth, as congestion and unreliable transport systems can exact a heavy price. But as long as the transport system is “good enough”, the returns to greater transport investment will be relatively limited. |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2011/4-en&r=ene |
| By: | Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos |
| Abstract: | By applying conditional and unconditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) models along side with statistical inference using bootstrap techniques; this paper investigates the link between China’s carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) environmental efficiency and its economic growth (measured in GNI per capita) for the time period of 1965 to 2009. The results reveal that China’s changing consumption patterns has caused emissions levels to increase dramatically the last two decades providing clear evidence of a negative effect of China’s GNI per capita increase on its environmental efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Environmental efficiency; Economic growth; Carbon dioxide emissions; China; Data envelopment analysis; Conditional efficiency; Bootstrap procedures |
| JEL: | C14 Q56 O4 C60 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32839&r=ene |
| By: | Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos |
| Abstract: | Using time series data, this paper investigates China’s carbon emissions during 1960-2006, with particular focus on the direct role of growth and in connection to trade and the value added by various sectors like agriculture, industry and services. Our empirical results indicate the presence of an inverted U-shaped curve between CO2 emissions and growth represented by the GDP per capita. Trade seems to be an important determinant in this relationship. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; Economic growth; Trade; Environmental kuznets curve; China |
| JEL: | C51 O10 Q56 C22 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32840&r=ene |
| By: | He, Jie; Wang, Hua |
| Abstract: | In many cases, the relationship between environmental pollution and economic development can be generally depicted by an inverted U-shaped curve, or an environmental Kuznets curve, where pollution increases with income at the beginning and decreases after a certain level of income. However, what determine the shape of an enviornmental Kuznets curve, such as the height and the turning point of the curve, have not been thoroughly studied. A good understanding of the determinants is vitally important to the development community, especially for the developing world, where income growth is a high priority and yet environmental pollution also needs to be carefully controlled. This study analyzes the impacts of economic structure, development strategy and environmental regulation on the shape of the environmental Kuznets curve with a city-level panel dataset obtained from China. The results show that economic structure, development strategy and environmental regulation can all have important implications on the relationship between environmental environmental quality and economic development but the impacts can be different at different development stages. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Population Policies,Green Issues |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5756&r=ene |
| By: | Llop, Maria; Tol, Richard S. J. |
| Abstract: | The analysis of gas emissions by an input-output subsystem approach provides detailed insights into pollution generation in an economy by revealing the channels by which the environmental burdens are caused and transmitted throughout the production system. In this paper we propose a decomposition of the greenhouse gas emissions by using an input-output subsystems model. The empirical application is for the Irish economy, and the economic and environmental data are for year 2005. Our results show that large asymmetries exist not only in the quantitative contribution of the different activities to greenhouse gas emissions but also in the decomposed effects of this contribution. |
| Keywords: | decomposition/Input Output Model/Republic of Ireland/Ireland/data |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp398&r=ene |
| By: | Jon Strand; Ian W.H. Parry |
| Abstract: | Gasoline and diesel fuel are heavily taxed in many developed and some emerging and developing countries. Outside of the United States and Europe, however, there has been little attempt to quantify the external costs of vehicle use, so policymakers lack guidance on whether prevailing tax rates are economically efficient. This paper develops a general approach for estimating motor vehicle externalities, and hence corrective taxes on gasoline and diesel, based on pooling local data with extrapolations from U.S.evidence. The analysis is illustrated for the case of Chile, though it could be applied to other countries. |
| Keywords: | Cross country analysis , Demand , Economic models , Excise taxes , Oil , Oil consumption , Taxation , Taxes , Transport , |
| Date: | 2011–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/168&r=ene |
| By: | Golosov, Mikhail; Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Tsyvinski, Aleh |
| Abstract: | We analyze a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with an externality---through climate change---from using fossil energy. A central result of our paper is an analytical derivation of a simple formula for the marginal externality damage of emissions. This formula, which holds under quite plausible assumptions, reveals that the damage is proportional to current GDP, with the proportion depending only on three factors: (i) discounting, (ii) the expected damage elasticity (how many percent of the output flow is lost from an extra unit of carbon in the atmosphere), and (iii) the structure of carbon depreciation in the atmosphere. Very importantly, future values of output, consumption, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration, as well as the paths of technology and population, and so on, all disappear from the formula. The optimal tax, using a standard Pigou argument, is then equal to this marginal externality. The simplicity of the formula allows the optimal tax to be easily parameterized and computed. Based on parameter estimates that rely on updated natural-science studies, we find that the optimal tax should be a bit higher than the median, or most well-known, estimates in the literature. We also show how the optimal taxes depend on the expectations and the possible resolution of the uncertainty regarding future damages. Finally, we compute the optimal and market paths for the use of energy and the corresponding climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate externality; integrated assessment model; optimal carbon taxes |
| JEL: | E0 Q5 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8527&r=ene |
| By: | Amnon Levy (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | The responsibility for, and consequences of, greenhouse gas emissions are shared by all countries, but only a few are willing to tax emissions. The paper argues that the reactions of the abstaining countries are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of the tax. The paper analyzes an interaction between a tax-collecting and investing coalition of rich countries, abstaining rich countries and poor countries. The non-coalition countries might have loss of reputation and guilt and overstate the tax’s emission-moderating effect. As long as these three types of countries react to their counterparts’ emissions, taxing emissions does not necessarily reduce the global emissions. |
| Keywords: | Emission Tax; Abstinence; Understating Expectations; Guilt; Global Emissions |
| JEL: | Q52 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp11-01&r=ene |
| By: | Ji-Won Park; Chae Un Kim; Walter Isard |
| Abstract: | In emissions trading, the initial permit allocation is an intractable issue because it needs to be essentially fair to the participating countries. There are many ways to distribute a given total amount of emissions permits among countries, but the existing distribution methods such as auctioning and grandfathering have been debated. Here we describe a new model for permit allocation in emissions trading using the Boltzmann distribution. The Boltzmann distribution is introduced to permit allocation by combining it with concepts in emissions trading. A price determination mechanism for emission permits is then developed in relation to the {\beta} value in the Boltzmann distribution. Finally, it is demonstrated how emissions permits can be practically allocated among participating countries in empirical results. The new allocation model using the Boltzmann distribution describes a most probable, natural, and unbiased distribution of emissions permits among multiple countries. Based on its simplicity and versatility, the model using the Boltzmann distribution has potential for various economic and environmental studies. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1108.2305&r=ene |
| By: | Dietz, Simon |
| Abstract: | This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for analysis of federal regulations in the United States. It argues that the analysis of the US Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon did not go far enough into the tail of low-probability, high-impact scenarios, and, via its approach to discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by arguing that there is in fact much to commend an approach whereby a quantitative, long-term emissions target is chosen, and the price of carbon for regulatory impact analysis is then based on estimates of the marginal cost of abatement to achieve that very target. -- |
| Keywords: | Ambiguity,climate change,discounting,integrated assessment modelling,risk,social cost of carbon,uncertainty |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201130&r=ene |
| By: | Anne Hammill; Thomas Tanner |
| Abstract: | Development planners and project managers have used a wide variety of tools to manage a broad range of environmental risks, including those posed by climate variability, for a long time. Some of these tools have also now been modified to take into account the risks posed by climate change. At the same time, there has been a recent emphasis in developing more dedicated tools which have an explicit focus on screening for climate change risks and for facilitating adaptation. The purpose of this paper is to analyse this latter set of tools targeted to screen climate change risks. The paper focuses on the need to consider the experiences of users as well as developers, and to investigate the extent to which tools are meeting user needs and if opportunities may exist for streamlining the tools landscape. This analysis is therefore an effort to contribute to the alignment and harmonisation priorities of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness of March 2005 and the follow-up Accra Agenda for Action of September 2008. While a “one-size-fits-all” approach or methodology may not be appropriate, there may be opportunities to provide common guidance on specific topics, such as categorisation and risk management frameworks, and to clarify the diverse terminology. In an effort to improve the use of screening and assessment tools, the paper recommends that the development community increase partner country ownership of risk screening and assessment tools/processes, narrow the gap between process guidance tools and data and information provision tools, supply guidance for users in moving from analysis to action and collaborate to prepare harmonised guidelines. While this analysis is limited to tools which have an explicit focus on climate change and adaptation, future work should also consider existing risk analysis tools which are practically used in development planning and modified for applications to adaptation.<BR>Les responsables de la planification du développement et les gestionnaires de projets utilisent depuis longtemps une batterie d’instruments très divers pour gérer un large éventail de risques environnementaux, dont fait partie la variabilité du climat. Certains de ces outils ont été modifiés dernièrement pour prendre en considération également les risques que présente le changement climatique. Parallèlement, des activités ont été consacrées récemment à la mise au point d’outils plus spécialisés, spécifiquement conçus pour mettre en évidence les risques qui tiennent au changement climatique et faciliter l’adaptation. Le présent article a pour objet d’analyser ces derniers outils axés sur le dépistage des risques relevant du changement climatique. Il insiste sur la nécessité de prendre en considération les expériences des utilisateurs et des promoteurs, et de déterminer dans quelle mesure les outils répondent aux besoins des utilisateurs et s’il est possible de rationaliser l’arsenal existant. Il vise ainsi à apporter des éléments à la réalisation des objectifs d’alignement et d’harmonisation énoncés dans la Déclaration de Paris sur l’efficacité de l’aide de mars 2005 et le Programme d’action d’Accra de septembre 2008 qui lui a fait suite. Il ne s’agit pas nécessairement de rechercher une approche ou une méthode universelle, mais il est peut-être envisageable de fournir des pistes communes sur des questions précises, comme les systèmes de classification et les cadres de gestion des risques, et de mettre de l’ordre dans la terminologie. Dans l’optique d’améliorer l’utilisation des instruments de dépistage et d’évaluation, l’article recommande que les acteurs du développement intensifient l’appropriation par les pays partenaires des outils et processus qui s’y rapportent, comblent le fossé entre outils d’orientation des processus et outils de fourniture de données et d’informations, et collaborent pour élaborer des lignes directrices harmonisées. La présente analyse est limitée aux outils spécifiquement axés sur le changement climatique et l’adaptation, mais les travaux futurs devraient s’intéresser également aux outils existants d’analyse des risques qui ont cours dans la planification du développement et qui sont modifiés pour être appliqués à l’adaptation. |
| Keywords: | development, development co-operation, adaptation, Climate risk screening, mainstreaming, développement, intégration, coopération pour le développement, adaptation, dépistage du risque climatique |
| JEL: | O19 O21 O22 O29 Q01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2011–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:36-en&r=ene |
| By: | Stéphane Hallegatte; Fanny Henriet; Anand Patwardhan; K. Narayanan; Subimal Ghosh; Subhankar Karmakar; Unmesh Patnaik; Abhijat Abhayankar; Sanjib Pohit; Jan Corfee-Morlot; Celine Herweijer; Nicola Ranger; Sumana Bhattacharya; Murthy Bachu; Satya Priya; K. Dhore; Farhat Rafique; P. Mathur; Nicolas Naville |
| Abstract: | Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an ‘upper bound’ climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690 – $1890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. Moreover, a survey on the consequences of the 2005 floods on the marginalized population reveals the special vulnerability of the poorest, which is not apparent when looking only through a window of quantitative analysis and aggregate figures. For instance, the survey suggests that total losses to the marginalized population from the 2005 floods could lie around $250 million, which represents a limited share of total losses but a large shock for poor households. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%. We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. As shown by the survey, the marginalized population has little access to financial support in disaster aftermaths, and targeting this population could make the benefits of such measures even larger. While this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario and is insufficient to design an adaptation strategy, it does demonstrate the value of risk-assessment as an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We conclude with a discussion of sources of uncertainty, and of risk-based tools that could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.<BR>hangement climatique. Dans cette étude, nous décrivons une méthode permettant d’évaluer les risques futurs et de quantifier les avantages de solutions d’adaptation à l’échelle urbaine, puis nous l’appliquons à l’estimation des risques d’inondation à Mumbai (Bombay). En 2005, une inondation sans précédent frappait la ville de Mumbai, faisant 500 victimes et occasionnant des dommages économiques directs estimés à près de deux milliards de dollars. Nos résultats suggèrent que, d’ici les années 2080, en appliquant le scénario SRES A2 et en sélectionnant un scénario climatique dans le haut de la fourchette, la probabilité d’un événement tel que celui de 2005 pourrait plus que doubler. Selon nos estimations, les pertes totales (directes et indirectes) causées par une catastrophe centennale pourraient tripler par rapport à leur niveau actuel (pour atteindre 690 à 1890 millions de dollars), du seul fait du changement climatique. L’urbanisation rapide et continue pourrait accroître d’autant plus le niveau de risque. D’autre part, l’étude que nous avons faite des conséquences des inondations de 2005 sur les populations marginalisées met en lumière la vulnérabilité particulière des plus démunis, qui n’est pas apparente lorsqu’on se limite aux analyses quantitatives et aux chiffres globaux. Par exemple, selon notre étude, le total des pertes subies lors des inondations de 2005 par les personnes marginalisées avoisinerait 250 millions de dollars, une faible part du total des dommages, mais un désastre considérable pour les foyers pauvres. Notre analyse montre également que l’adaptation pourrait substantiellement réduire les dommages futurs : nous estimons ainsi que les dommages causés par une inondation centennale pourraient être réduits de 70 % si l’on améliore le réseau d’assainissement de Mumbai. Quand on procède à une évaluation de l’adaptation, il importe d’estimer les coûts indirects des événements extrêmes car on peut ainsi à la fois intégrer à l’analyse l’ensemble des avantages économiques de l’adaptation et identifier des options de gestion des risques indirects liés aux catastrophes. Par exemple, nous montrons que si 100 % des habitants étaient en mesure de souscrire une assurance, les effets indirects des inondations pourraient être réduits de près de la moitié. Comme l’indique notre étude, la population marginalisée a peu accès aux aides financières après les catastrophes : les avantages de telles mesures pourraient donc être encore plus élevés si cette population était ciblée en priorité. Notre étude se limite à un scénario climatique dans le haut de la fourchette et ne suffit pas à élaborer une stratégie d’adaptation à part entière. Néanmoins, elle démontre la valeur des évaluations des risques, outils de mesure importants quand il s’agit de concevoir des stratégies d’adaptation à l’échelle urbaine. Nous concluons par un examen des sources d’incertitude ainsi que des outils fondés sur les risques qui, associés à des processus décisionnels, permettraient de formuler des plans d’adaptation durable au changement climatique. |
| Keywords: | sustainable development, insurance, government policy, climate change, global warming, natural disasters, flood management, adaptation, urban planning, développement durable, assurance, changement climatique, réchauffement climatique, adaptation, catastrophes naturelles, gestion des inondations, aménagement urbain, action publique |
| JEL: | E20 O18 Q01 Q54 R11 R52 |
| Date: | 2010–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:27-en&r=ene |
| By: | Temesgen Tadesse Deressa |
| Abstract: | This study argues that the adaptation measures farmers take to reduce the negative impacts of climate change do affect farmers’ efficiency of production. To support this argument, two steps were followed to understand how climatic factors especially long term average seasonal rainfall and temperature; and agro-ecological settings affect production efficiency in Ethiopian agriculture. In the first step, the stochastic frontier approach was employed to analyze the farm level technical efficiency. In the second step, the tobit regression model was adopted to analyze how climatic and agro-ecological settings affect efficiency scores derived from the first step. Results from the first step indicated that the surveyed farmers have an average technical efficiency of 0.50; with significant output elasticits of labor, draft power and tractor. Results from the tobit regression model showed that soil types, run-off, seasonal climatic conditions and agro-ecological settings affect technical efficiency in Ethiopian agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Technical efficiency, seasonal climate, agro-ecology, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | C53 Q25 Q54 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:223&r=ene |
| By: | Hans Gersbach; Noemi Hummel; Ralph Winkler |
| Abstract: | We examine a global refunding scheme for mitigating climate change. Countries pay an initial fee into a global fund that is invested in long-run assets. In each period, part of the fund is distributed among the participating countries in relation to the emission reductions they have achieved in this period. We identify two possible types of sustainable treaty. A first-best sustainable treaty involves varying amounts of refunded wealth and a minimal amount of initial fees inducing socially desirable abatement efforts in each period. In a secondbest sustainable treaty with only two parameters - optimally selected initial fees and constant refunds equal to the interest earned on the fund - the stock of greenhouse gases converges to the socially optimal stock. Finally, we suggest ways for countries to raise money for the payment of initial fees that are neutral to tax payers and international capital markets. |
| Keywords: | climate change mitigation; refunding scheme; international agreements; |
| JEL: | Q54 H23 H41 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1105&r=ene |