nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2010‒09‒03
23 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Basque Climate Change Centre, Bilbao, Spain

  1. Toward a Smart EU Energy Policy: Rationale and 22 Recommendations By Jean-Michel Glachant; Robert Grant; Manfred Hafner; Jacques de Jong
  2. Legal Feasibility of Schengen-like Agreements in European Energy Policy: The Cases of Nuclear Cooperation and Gas Security of Supply By Nicole Ahner; Jean-Michel Glachant; Adrien de Hauteclocque
  3. Smart Regulation for Smart Grids By Leonardo Meeus; Marcelo Saguan; Jean-Michel Glachant; Ronnie Belmans
  4. The Creation of a Market for Retail Electricity Supply By Stephen Littlechild
  5. The Creation of a Market for Retail Electricity Supply By Ramteen Sioshansi
  6. Implicit Auctioning on the Kontek Cable: Third Time Lucky? By Leonardo Meeus
  7. Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields By Ole E. Barndorff–Nielsen; Fred Espen Benth; Almut E. D. Veraart
  8. Short-term load forecasting based on a semi-parametric additive model By Shu Fan; Rob Hyndman
  9. Urban Fuel Demand in Ethiopia: An Almost-Ideal Demand System Approach By Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Oskam, Arie J.; Bayou, Demeke
  10. Urban Energy Transition and Technology Adoption: The Case of Tigrai, Northern Ethiopia By Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Mekonnen, Alemu; Kassie, Menale; Köhlin, Gunnar
  11. Natural Resources and State Fragility By Paul Collier; Anthony J. Venables
  12. The Gas Transportation Network as a ‘Lego’ Game: How to Play with It? By Jean Michel Glachant; Michelle Hallack
  13. Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy By Stuart Landon; Constance Smith
  14. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets By Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat
  15. Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approach By Hooi Hooi Lean; Michael McAleer; Wing-Keung Wong
  16. Innovation and Environmental Policy: Clean vs. Dirty Technical Change By Cunha-e-Sa, Maria Antonieta; Leitao, Alexandra; Reis, Ana Balcao
  17. Carbon Footprint Labeling Activities in the East Asia Summit Region: Spillover Effects to Less Developed Countries By Xunpeng SHI
  18. Updating the Allocation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Permits in a Federal Cap-and-Trade Program By Meredith Fowlie
  19. The Economics of Carbon Offsets By James B. Bushnell
  20. Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields By Michael J. Roberts; Wolfram Schlenker
  21. Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord By Warwick J. McKibbin; Adele C. Morris; Peter J. Wilcoxen
  22. Regulatory Choice with Pollution and Innovation By Charles D. Kolstad
  23. Three Key Elements of Post-2012 International Climate Policy Architecture By Olmstead, Sheila M.; Stavins, Robert N.

  1. By: Jean-Michel Glachant; Robert Grant; Manfred Hafner; Jacques de Jong
    Abstract: We are in desperate need of an EU Energy Policy. The facts are that, yes, there is indeed an EU Energy Policy. It is a policy based on a vision, a vision with three components. The policy is aiming for “markets, competition and efficiency”, it is equally focussing on “a sustainable energy economy”, and thirdly, it wants to “secure the EU’s energy supply”. Three objectives, three separate action lines. Balancing the three objectives in an integrated approach is challenging and difficult. To what extent is the market approach consistent with the other two policy packages? What impact does a climate package with tradable emission rights and non-tradable targets for green energy have on the market designs for gas and electricity? Are the necessary investments in new pipes and wires for securing our energy supplies sufficiently coming under the prevailing regulatory framework? Or, to put it differently; are we smart enough in the way in which we are making implementing steps in order to meet our stated objectives? Our paper ends with a proposed new vision and a set of 22 recommendations to the new European Commission.
    Keywords: energy policy; climate change; security of energy supply; EU internal marke
    Date: 2010–06–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/52&r=ene
  2. By: Nicole Ahner; Jean-Michel Glachant; Adrien de Hauteclocque
    Abstract: European energy policy is characterized by a complex allocation of authority between the European Union and its Member States which results in an intricate interplay of regulatory competence. Knowing the difficulties European countries face in coordinating and proposing common solutions in the area of energy, there is the urgent need to question the legal foundations underlying the decisionmaking process. Institutional paralysis, low reactivity to events and changes as well as systematic political horse-trading across all questions call for an alternative framework allowing some pioneering Member States to promote ad hoc common policies escaping the formal and procedural requirements of EU law. Our paper assesses the legal feasibility of short-run differentiation by means of partial international agreements inspired by the Schengen regime, namely entirely outside the EU framework. The key challenge from a legal point of view is to assess the substantive compatibility of such agreements in energy with the existing rules of the Union. Short run differentiation in energy cannot indeed be assessed at a high level of generalities. We therefore take two areas where legally-binding coordination at the sub-Union level is often called for: nuclear policy and gas security of supply. The possible substantive content of such cooperation is derived from the economic and political literature before legal feasibility is assessed. Our findings suggest that the scope for such agreements is limited for security of gas supply whereas it could be an improved cooperation device in certain areas of nuclear policy.
    Keywords: EU energy policy, Schengen agreement, flexible integration, nuclear cooperation, gas security of supply
    Date: 2010–05–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/43&r=ene
  3. By: Leonardo Meeus; Marcelo Saguan; Jean-Michel Glachant; Ronnie Belmans
    Abstract: Climate change and security of supply policies are driving us towards a decarbonization of the electricity system. It is in this context that smart grids are being discussed. Electricity grids, and hence their regulatory frameworks, have a key role to play in facilitating this transformation of the electricity system. In this paper, we analyze what is expected from grids and what are the regulatory tools that could be used to align the incentives of grid companies and grid users with what is expected from them. We look at three empirical cases to see which regulatory tools have already been applied and find that smart grids need a coherent regulatory framework addressing grid services, grid technology innovation and grid user participation to the ongoing grid innovation. The paper concludes with what appears to be a smart regulation for smart grids.
    Keywords: Regulation, innovation, electricity, grids, transmission, distribution
    Date: 2010–05–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/45&r=ene
  4. By: Stephen Littlechild
    Abstract: In this paper we discuss the EU policy on electricity markets integration by reviewing the experience of the Electricity Regional Initiatives. The regional approach to market integration delivered important results in areas such as coordination among national transmission system operators, implementation of market-based mechanisms for cross-border transmission capacity allocation and transparency. Furthermore, the inclusive governance process lead by ERGEG gave voice to all relevant stakeholders. However, there are indications that the regional model reached its limit when faced with the objective of coordinating day-ahead and real-time markets. The unanimity approach at the regional level made the intra-regional decision-making process extremely slow. Further, inter-regional integration issues have not been solved yet and attempts to tackle them by prioritising projects in some Regions weakened the pluralistic attributes of the regional model. The Third Legislative Energy Package has the potential to overcome some of these shortcomings by empowering pan-European institutions (ENTSO and ACER) and by involving Member States in the decision making process. Some weaknesses of the second-package, though, persist in the new framework. First, there are no provisions ensuring that ENTSO will have appropriate incentives to act in the interest of European consumers. Second, the Third Package perpetuates the separation between within-country congestion management – which remains a national issue – and cross-border congestion management – to be dealt with at the EU level. This two-tier approach is inconsistent with the highly meshed nature of the European network and is likely to result in inefficient market design. Further, the implementation of coordinated cross-border and national congestion management mechanisms requires considering geographically differentiated prices within countries, a politically unattractive result for most Member States.
    Keywords: retail competition, electricity regulation
    JEL: L94
    Date: 2010–07–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/57&r=ene
  5. By: Ramteen Sioshansi
    Abstract: This paper provides a survey of the history and future of storage development in the US and policy and analytical questions relating to storage. The paper discusses the history of storage development in the US, and some of the limitations in how storage investment was justified beginning in the 1970s, when much of the US's current storage capacity was built. Then we discuss potential uses of storage beyond serving as an alternative to peaking capacity and uses of storage by entities other than a traditional vertically-integrated utility. After we lay out some policy and research questions related to energy storage and show how questions such as regulation, market products, and ownership can greatly affect the true value of storage and incentives for and efficiency of storage use and investment.
    Keywords: Energy storage, electricity markets, investment incentives
    Date: 2010–07–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/58&r=ene
  6. By: Leonardo Meeus
    Abstract: Cross-border capacities in Europe are currently inefficiently used. Implicit auctioning is about eliminating these cross-border trade inefficiencies by internalizing the arbitrage into the auction procedures of the Power Exchanges that are organizing trade nationally. On the Kontek Cable, implicit auctioning has been implemented without price coordination between the involved Power Exchanges. This implementation, referred to as “volume or dome coupling” as opposed to “price coupling”, has been argued to be institutionally easier to implement. The Kontek Cable experimented with three different implicit auctioning implementations whose performance we analyze empirically in this paper. We find that the third implementation is significantly outperforming the previous two implementations, but in this third implementation stakeholders partly abandoned the volume coupling approach they initially believed to be a viable alternative to price coupling.
    Keywords: electricity, transmission, congestion management, market coupling
    Date: 2010–05–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/49&r=ene
  7. By: Ole E. Barndorff–Nielsen (Thiele Center, Department of Mathematical Sciences and CREATES); Fred Espen Benth (Centre of Mathematics for Applications, University of Oslo and Faculty of Economics University of Agder); Almut E. D. Veraart (CREATES, School of Economics and Management Aarhus University)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained from the forward model through a limiting argument.
    Keywords: Electricity markets, forward prices, random fields, ambit fields, stochastic volatility.
    JEL: C0 C1 C5 G1
    Date: 2010–08–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2010-41&r=ene
  8. By: Shu Fan; Rob Hyndman
    Abstract: Short-term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning, operation and control. Many operating decisions are based on load forecasts, such as dispatch scheduling of generating capacity, reliability analysis, and maintenance planning for the generators. Overestimation of electricity demand will cause a conservative operation, which leads to the start-up of too many units or excessive energy purchase, thereby supplying an unnecessary level of reserve. On the contrary, underestimation may result in a risky operation, with insufficient preparation of spinning reserve, causing the system to operate in a vulnerable region to the disturbance. In this paper, semi-parametric additive models are proposed to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables. Specifically, the inputs for these models are calendar variables, lagged actual demand observations and historical and forecast temperature traces for one or more sites in the target power system. In addition to point forecasts, prediction intervals are also estimated using a modified bootstrap method suitable for the complex seasonality seen in electricity demand data. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half-hourly electricity demand for up to seven days ahead for power systems in the Australian National Electricity Market. The performance of the methodology is validated via out-of-sample experiments with real data from the power system, as well as through on-site implementation by the system operator.
    Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, additive model, time series, forecast distribution
    JEL: C14 C15 C52 C53 L94
    Date: 2010–08–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2010-17&r=ene
  9. By: Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Oskam, Arie J.; Bayou, Demeke
    Abstract: This paper investigates the opportunities for reducing the pressure of urban centers on rural forest areas, using a dataset of 350 urban households in Tigrai in northern Ethiopia. We applied an almost-ideal demand system to fuels. Because the same fuels were not always used by households, the analysis started with a probit model of fuel use. The inverse Mills ratios derived from it were inserted into the estimation of the fuel demand system to obtain a full set of price and income elasticities. The results suggest that reducing the pressure of urban centers on local forests cannot be seen in isolation from broader development policies aimed at raising the level of education and income of the population. Higher income also stimulates the demand for fuel.
    Keywords: price elasticities, income elasticities, almost-ideal fuel demand system, reducing deforestation, Ethiopia
    JEL: O13 O18 Q23
    Date: 2010–08–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-10-20-efd&r=ene
  10. By: Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Mekonnen, Alemu; Kassie, Menale; Köhlin, Gunnar
    Abstract: Dependency of urban Ethiopian households on rural areas for about 85 percent of their fuel needs is a significant cause of deforestation and forest degradation, resulting in growing fuel scarcity and higher firewood prices. One response to reducing the pressure on rural lands is for urban households to switch fuel sources (from fuelwood to electricity, for example) to slow deforestation and forest degradation and reduce indoor air pollution. However, such an energy transition is conditioned on the adoption of appropriate cooking appliances or stove technologies by the majority of users. This paper investigates urban energy transition and technology adoption conditions using a dataset of 350 urban households in Tigrai, in northern Ethiopia. Results suggest that the transition to electricity is affected by households adopting the electric mitad cooking appliance, which in turn is influenced by the level of education and income, among other things.
    Keywords: urban energy transition, electric mitad cooking appliance, technology adoption, bivariate probit, Tigrai, Ethiopia
    JEL: Q4 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2010–08–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-10-22-efd&r=ene
  11. By: Paul Collier; Anthony J. Venables
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the relationships between natural resources, governance, and economic performance. The relationships run in both directions, with re-sources potentially altering the quality of governance, and governance being particularly important for resource poor countries. Both these relationships have threshold effects; if governance quality is above a certain level, then natural resources can lead to further improvement, while, below the threshold, further deterioration may take place. Theoretical and empirical work is reviewed, the interactions between the relationships discussed, and policy implications outlined.
    Keywords: Exhaustible resources ; resource curse; economic development ; revenue management
    Date: 2010–04–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/36&r=ene
  12. By: Jean Michel Glachant; Michelle Hallack
    Abstract: Gas transportation networks exhibit a quite substantial variety of technical and economical properties ranges roughly from an entrenched natural monopoly to near to an open competition platform. This empirical fact is widely known and accepted. However the corresponding frame of network analysis is lacking or quite fuzzy. As an infrastructure, can a gas network evolve or not from a natural monopoly (an essential facility) to an open infrastructure (a “highway” facility)? How can it be done with the same transportation infrastructure components within the same physical gas laws? Our paper provides a unified analytical frame for all types of gas transportation networks. It shows that gas transport networks are made of several components which can be combined in different ways. This very “lego property” of gas networks permits different designs with different economic properties while a certain infrastructural base and set of gas laws is common to all transportation networks. Therefore the notion of “gas transportation network” as a general and abstract concept does not have robust economic properties. The variety and modularity of gas networks come from the diversity of components, the variety of components combinations and the historical inclusion of components in the network. First, a gas network can combine different types of network components (primary or secondary ones). Second, the same components can be combined in different ways (notably regarding actual connections and flow paths). Third, as a capital-intensive infrastructure combining various specific assets, gas transportation networks show strong “path dependency” properties as they evolve slowly over time by moving from an already existing base. The heterogeneity of gas networks as sets of components comes firstly from the heterogeneity of the network components themselves, secondly from the different possibilities to combine these components and thirdly from the ‘path dependence’ character of gas network constructions. These three characteristics of gas networks explain the diversity of economic proprieties of the existent gas networks going from natural monopoly to competitive markets.
    Keywords: gas transport networks, regulatory economics, network regulation
    JEL: L5 L29 D42 D61 D6
    Date: 2010–05–13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/42&r=ene
  13. By: Stuart Landon; Constance Smith
    Abstract: The Alberta government is heavily exposed to energy price volatility as it relies to a great extent on revenue derived from the production of oil and natural gas. Energy prices change substantially and unpredictably, causing large and uncertain movements in revenues. Adjusting to these movements typically involves economic, social and political costs. Alberta government revenues are considerably more volatile than the revenues of other provinces, but Alberta’s own-source revenues less royalty payments are of similar size and volatility as those of other provinces. Several methods to reduce the volatility of revenues are assessed. An often-suggested method, tax base diversification (for example, use of a retail sales tax), is shown to have a minor effect on overall revenue volatility since Alberta’s royalty revenues are such a large share of total own-source revenues. Revenue smoothing using futures and options markets can be expensive, is associated with significant political risks, and cannot eliminate all revenue volatility. The Canadian dollar tends to appreciate (depreciate) when energy prices rise (fall), so exchange rate movements have smoothed Alberta government revenues, although not by a large amount. A simulation using Alberta data shows that a revenue savings fund could significantly reduce revenue volatility. This type of fund leads to greater revenue stability because the revenue it contributes to the budget in any particular year is based on revenues averaged over prior years. Revenue uncertainty is also reduced with a savings fund since future revenue depends on known past contributions.
    Keywords: Government revenue volatility; energy prices; tax base diversification; government savings fund.
    JEL: G13 H20 H71 O13 Q33
    Date: 2010–08–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2010_23&r=ene
  14. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University)
    Abstract: Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets.
    Keywords: Volatility spillovers, multivariate GARCH, conditional correlation, crude oil prices, spot returns, forward returns, futures returns
    JEL: C22 C32 G32
    Date: 2010–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:717&r=ene
  15. By: Hooi Hooi Lean (School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia); Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Wing-Keung Wong (Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period of 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationship between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing in spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. Our empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.
    Keywords: Stochastic dominance, risk averter, oil futures market, market efficiency
    JEL: C14 G12 G15
    Date: 2010–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:718&r=ene
  16. By: Cunha-e-Sa, Maria Antonieta; Leitao, Alexandra; Reis, Ana Balcao
    Abstract: We study a two sector endogenous growth model with environmental quality with two goods and two factors of production, one clean and one dirty. Technological change creates clean or dirty innovations. We compare the laissez-faire equilibrium and the social optimum and study first- and second-best policies. Optimal policy encourages research toward clean technologies. In a second-best world, we claim that a portfolio that includes a tax on the polluting good combined with optimal innovation subsidy policies is less costly than increasing the price of the polluting good alone. Moreover, a discriminating innovation subsidy policy is preferable to a non-discriminating one. JEL codes: H23; O3; O41
    Date: 2010
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp548&r=ene
  17. By: Xunpeng SHI (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Abstract: This paper discusses carbon footprint (CFP) labeling activities in the East Asia Summit (EAS) region with a focus on their spillover effects on less developed countries (LDCs). Due to increased and increasing economic integration, implementation of CFP labeling schemes in one country will have significant impact on others. The impact is particularly significant for LDCs in the EAS region because: the EAS production networks are highly integrated, which provide necessary condition for the spill-over effects to be generated; LDCs generally lack the capacity to measure and label CFP of their products; and exports from LDCs often produced by relatively small producers. However, the effective inclusion of LDCs in labeling schemes may offer more and cost-effective opportunities for carbon emission reductions. The presence of spillover effects means that countries that are implementing carbon labeling schemes need to take stakeholders outside of their boundaries into consideration. The disadvantages of LDCs can be reduced by well designed carbon labeling schemes, by innovative solutions to low cost data collection and certification, and by technical transfer, training and capacity building.
    Date: 2010–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2010-06&r=ene
  18. By: Meredith Fowlie
    Abstract: U.S. adoption of a cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases could place some domestic producers at a disadvantage relative to international competitors who do not face similar regulation. To address this issue, proposed federal climate change legislation includes a provision that would freely allocate (or rebate) emission allowances to eligible sectors using a continuously updating output-based formula. Eligibility for the rebates would be determined at the industry-level based on emissions or energy intensity and a measure of import penetration. Dynamic updating of permit allocations has the potential to mitigate adverse competitiveness impacts and emissions leakage in eligible industries. It can also undermine the cost-effectiveness of permit market outcomes, as more of the mandated emissions reductions must then be achieved by sources deemed ineligible for rebates. This chapter investigates both the benefits and the costs of output-based updating. It identifies differences between proposed eligibility criteria and those consistent with standard measures of economic efficiency. The analysis underlines the importance of taking both benefits and costs into account when determining the scale and scope of output-based rebating provisions in cap-and-trade programs.
    JEL: Q58
    Date: 2010–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16307&r=ene
  19. By: James B. Bushnell
    Abstract: Although international programs for carbon offsets play an important role in current and prospective climate-change policy, they continue to be very controversial. Asymmetric information creates several incentive problems, include adverse selection and moral hazard, in offset markets. The current regulatory focus on additionality tends to paint all these problems with a broad brush without proper consideration of the context or their implications.
    JEL: H23 L14 L5 Q54
    Date: 2010–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16305&r=ene
  20. By: Michael J. Roberts; Wolfram Schlenker
    Abstract: Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.
    JEL: Q1
    Date: 2010–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16308&r=ene
  21. By: Warwick J. McKibbin; Adele C. Morris; Peter J. Wilcoxen
    Abstract: The political accord struck by world leaders at the United Nations negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 allows participating countries to express their greenhouse gas commitments in a variety of ways. For example, developed countries promised different percent emissions reductions relative to different base years by 2020. China and India committed to reducing their emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) relative to 2005 by 40 and 20 percent respectively. Such flexibility promotes consensus by allowing each country to use its preferred commitment formulation. However, the disparate approaches and widely varying baseline trends across different economies complicate comparing the likely emissions reductions and economic efforts required to achieve the commitments. This paper provides such a comparison by analyzing the Copenhagen targets using the GCubed model of the global economy. We begin by formulating a no-policy baseline projection for major world economies. We then model the Copenhagen Accord’s economy-wide commitments, with a focus on fossil-fuel-related CO2. We show how different formulations make the same targets appear quite different in stringency, and we estimate and compare the likely economic and environmental performance of major emitters’ Copenhagen targets. The analysis also explores the spillover effects of emission reductions efforts on countries that did not adopt economy-wide emissions targets at Copenhagen. We emphasize that this work is not a policy analysis or a prediction about how countries will actually achieve their commitments. Rather, it offers a way of standardizing and comparing heterogeneous proposals with an eye towards assessing their relative environmental and economic consequences.
    Date: 2010–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:camaaa:2010-24&r=ene
  22. By: Charles D. Kolstad
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple model of a polluting industry and an innovating firm. The polluting industry is faced with regulation and costly abatement. Regulation may be taxes or marketable permits. The innovating firm invests in R&D and develops technologies which reduce the cost of pollution abatement. The innovating firm can patent this innovation and use a licensing fee to generate revenue. In a world of certainty, the first best level of innovation and abatement can be supported by either a pollution tax or a marketable permit. However, the returns to the innovator from innovation are not the same under the two regimes. A marketable permit system allows the innovator to capture all of the gains to innovation; a tax system involves sharing the gains of innovation between the innovator and the polluting industry.
    JEL: L51 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2010–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16303&r=ene
  23. By: Olmstead, Sheila M. (Resources for the Future); Stavins, Robert N.
    Abstract: We describe three essential elements of an effective post-2012 international global climate policy architecture: a means to ensure that key industrialized and developing nations are involved in differentiated but meaningful ways; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets; and inclusion of flexible market-based policy instruments to keep costs down and facilitate international equity. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change; addresses specific shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol; and builds upon the foundation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
    Keywords: global climate change, global warming, policy architecture, Kyoto Protocol
    JEL: Q54 Q58 Q48 Q39
    Date: 2010–06–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-10-34&r=ene

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