nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2010‒04‒11
twenty-six papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Basque Climate Change Centre, Bilbao, Spain

  1. Household Energy Expenditure and Income Groups: Evidence from Great Britain By Jamasb, T.; Meier, H.
  2. International Evidence on Sectoral Interfuel Substitution By Apostolos Serletis; Govinda Timilsina; Olexandr Vasetsky
  3. Decomposition of Industrial Energy Consumption in Indian Manufacturing : The Energy Intensity Approach By Sahu, Santosh; Narayanan, K
  4. Determinants of Energy Intensity in Indian Manufacturing Industries: A Firm Level Analysis By Sahu, Santosh; Narayanan, K
  5. Operational and Investment Response to Energy Prices in the OECD Manufacturing Sector By Steinbuks, J.; Neuhoff, K.
  6. Energy efficiency development in German and Colombian non-energy-intensive sectors By Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
  7. Energy use and energy efficiency development in the German and Colombian textile industries By Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
  8. Analysis of energy efficiency development in the German and Colombian food industries By Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
  9. The Supply Function Equilibrium and its Policy Implications for Wholesale Electricity Auctions By Holmberg, P.; Newbery, D.
  10. Strategic Behaviour, Resource Valuation and Competition in Electricty Markets By Miguel A. Espinosa; Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas
  11. The Restructuring and Privatisation of the Peruvian Electricity Distribution Market By Anaya, K.L.
  12. A Detailed Analysis of the Productivity Performance of Oil and Gas Extraction in Canada By Andrew Sharpe; Celeste Bradley
  13. Supplying Synthetic Crude Oil from Canadian Oil Sands: A Comparative Study of the Costs and CO2 Emissions of Mining and In-Situ Recovery By Méjean, A.; Hope, C.
  14. The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey By Jeffrey A. Frankel
  16. The Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP): Some Implications for the Forest Industry By Sedjo, Roger A.
  17. Mandates, Tax Credits, and Tariffs: Does the U.S. Biofuels Industry Need Them All? By Bruce A. Babcock
  18. Are
 friendly? By Carl Gaigné; Stéphane Riou; Jacques-François Thisse
  19. The impact of instrument choice on investment in abatement technologies: a case study of tax versus trade incentives for CCS and Biomass for electricity By Laing, T.; Grubb, M.
  20. Adverse Selection, Emission Permits and Optimal Price Differentiation. By Mourad Afif; Sandrine Spaeter
  21. Upstream vs. Downstream CO2 Trading: A Comparison for the Electricity Context By Hobbs, B.F.; Bushnell, J.; Wolak, F.A.
  22. Modeling and Explaining the Dynamics of European Union Allowance Prices at High-Frequency By Conrad, Christian; Rittler, Daniel; Rotfuß, Waldemar
  23. Climate Policy’s Uncertain Outcomes for Households: The Role of Complex Allocation Schemes in Cap-and-Trade By Blonz, Joshua; Burtraw, Dallas; Walls, Margaret A.
  24. Paris: a Desire Named Streetcar By Martin Koning; Rémy Prud'Homme; Pierre Kopp
  25. El Impacto del Cambio Climático en Bolivia: Estimación de los Costos de Eventos Climáticos Extremos sobre la Infraestructura Pública y la Producción Agropecuaria By Juan Arenas
  26. Assessing the Role of Microfinance in Fostering Adaptation to Climate Change By Shardul Agrawala; Maëlis Carraro

  1. By: Jamasb, T.; Meier, H.
    Abstract: The residential demand for energy has been growing steadily in tact with the societies’ increasing economic affluence. As a result, the household sector accounts for a significant share of total energy use and economic welfare in modern economies. The residential energy demand is expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future. This has, in recent years, attracted much attention mainly in relation to the debate on the effect of energy use on climate change.
    Date: 2010–02–15
  2. By: Apostolos Serletis; Govinda Timilsina; Olexandr Vasetsky
    Abstract: This paper estimates interfuel substitution elasticities in selected developing and industrialized economies at the sector level. In doing so, it employs state-of-the-art techniques in microeconometrics, particularly the locally flexible normalized quadratic functional form, and provides evidence consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory. The results indicate that the interfuel substitution elasticities are consistently below unity, revealing the limited ability to substitute between major energy commodities (i.e., coal, oil, gas, and electricity). We Â…find that on average, industrial and residential sectors tend to exhibit higher potential for substitution between energy inputs as compared to the electricity generation and transportation sectors in all countries, with the United States being the only exception. In addition, we fiÂ…nd that developed countries demonstrate higher potential for interfuel substitution in their industrial and transportation sectors as compared to the developing economies. The implication is that interfuel substitution depends on the structure of the economy, not the level of economic development. Moreover, higher changes in relative prices are needed than what we have already experienced to induce switching toward a lower carbon economy.
    JEL: C2 D4
    Date: 2010–01–31
  3. By: Sahu, Santosh; Narayanan, K
    Abstract: Increasing energy consumption has been one of the major issues in the environmental and industrial economics in the context of global climate change. Recent literature has dealt with several methodological and application issues related to the technique of decomposing changes in industrial energy consumption. In this paper, we examine these issues in the context of another commonly adopted approach to decomposition of aggregate changes in energy intensity of Indian manufacturing industries. The industrial sector accounts for about 37 percent of the total final energy consumption in India. Of this the manufacturing sector consumes about 66 percent (2004-05). The manufacturing sector is one of the energy intensive industries among other industries in India. The scope of the study includes an empirical analysis of General Parametric Divisia Method. This paper follows the energy intensity approach rather the energy consumption approach. This method involves decomposition of the aggregate energy intensity index measured in terms of energy consumption per unit of output. The analysis also includes a comparison of the time series analysis versus the period-wise decomposition. The factors considered are changes in production structure and sectoral energy intensities. The results of the analysis confirm that the changes in sectoral energy intensity play a greater role in the variation in the total energy intensity of Indian Manufacturing compared to the changes in the production structure of the Industries.
    Keywords: Decomposition Methodology; Energy Intensity; Manufacturing Industries; India
    JEL: B23 Q4
    Date: 2010–03–19
  4. By: Sahu, Santosh; Narayanan, K
    Abstract: The demand for energy, particularly for commercial energy, has been growing rapidly with the growth of the economy, changes in the demographic structure, rising urbanization, socio-economic development, and the desire for attaining and sustaining self-reliance in some sectors of the economy. In this context the energy intensity is one of the key factors, which affect the projections of future energy demand for any economy. Energy intensity in Indian industry is among the highest in the world. According to the GoI statistics, the manufacturing sector is the largest consumer of commercial energy in India. Energy consumption per unit of production in the manufacturing of steel, aluminum, cement, paper, textile, etc. is much higher in India, even in comparison with some developing countries. In this study we attempt to analyze energy intensity at firm level and define energy intensity as the ratio of energy consumption to sales turnover. The purpose of this study is to understand the factors that determine industrial energy intensity in Indian manufacturing. The results of the econometric analysis, based on firm level data drawn from the PROWESS data base of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy during recent years, identify the sources of variation in energy intensity. Also, we found a non-linear ‘U’ shaped relationship between energy intensity and firm size, implying that both very large and very small firms tend to be more energy intensive. The analysis also highlights that ownership type is an important determinant of energy intensity. We found that foreign owned firms exhibit a higher level of technical efficiency and therefore are less energy intensive. The technology import activities are important contributors to the decline in firm- level energy intensity. The paper also identifies that there is a sizable difference between energy intensive firm and less energy intensive firms. In addition the results shows that younger firms are more energy efficient as compared to the older firms and an inverse U’ shaped relationship is found between the energy intensity and the age of the firm.
    Keywords: Energy Intensity; Commercial Energy Consumption; Indian Manufacturing Industries
    JEL: B23 Q4
    Date: 2010–01–08
  5. By: Steinbuks, J.; Neuhoff, K.
    Abstract: This paper estimates the vintage capital model of energy demand and examines operational and investment responses to energy prices at disaggregate level using data from five OECD manufacturing industries. Applying the model to less aggregate level data helps avoiding the distortions from exogenous structural shifts and measurement errors. The results confirm the previous findings that including capital stock vintages significantly improves the econometric model's goodness of fit. Estimated own-price elasticities of energy demand vary between 0.26 and 1.00 and are economically sound. Estimated own-price investment elasticities of energy efficiency of capital stock vary between 0.03 and 0.9. The investment response to energy prices thus varies significantly across manufacturing industries, being significant in some of them and negligible in other. The results of policy simulations for the U.K. petrochemical industry (the most energy-intensive industry in the sample) indicate that total (operational and investment) own-price elasticity of energy demand is close to one.
    Keywords: energy efficiency, energy prices, investment, vintage capital model
    JEL: D24 E22 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2010–03–15
  6. By: Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
    Abstract: This paper measures energy efficiency development in non-energy-intensive sectors (NEISs) in Germany and Colombia from a production-based theoretical framework using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Using data from the German and Colombian Annual Surveys of Industries from 1998 to 2005, the analysis compares energy efficiency performances in German and Colombian NEISs at two levels of aggregation and then applies several alternative models. The results show considerable variation in energy efficiency performance in the NEISs of both countries. Comparing the results across models, it was found that in the German and Colombian NEISs, the measures of energy efficiency are similar, indicating that an appropriate combination of technical efficiency and cost minimisation are necessary to improve energy efficiency. However, energy efficiency based on cost minimisation is greater in both countries, demonstrating that energy prices in this sector are not the key variable for improving energy efficiency. This is due to the low share of energy costs, making it preferable to change other inputs rather than energy. A second-stage regression analysis reveals that in the German and Colombian NEISs, labour productivity and investments are fundamental to changes in energy efficiency. Finally, the energy efficiency measures of the DEA models show significant correlations with the traditional energy efficiency measure, indicating that energy efficiency as measured through DEA could be complementary to measures of energy intensity when analysing other key elements of energy efficiency performance in the industrial sector.
    Date: 2009–03–31
  7. By: Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
    Abstract: This paper analyses energy efficiency development in the German and Colombian textile industries as case studies, using three alternative indicators to measure energy efficiency performance. The study analyses energy efficiency in the textile industry at the ISIC three-digit level of aggregation for the years 1998 to 2005. Comparing the results of the three alternative indicators, the German and Colombian textile industries improved their energy efficiency performance during the sample period. The energy consumption of each textile manufacturing activity corresponded to its production level, indicating the direct relation between output and energy use. The results show considerable variation in energy efficiency between the German and Colombian textile industries. A second-stage application of the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function reveals that in the German textile industry, capital and energy price variables enhance the efficiency of the gross production-energy ratio, whereas in the Colombian textile industry, labour, materials and plant capacity utilisation variables enhance the efficiency of the gross production-energy ratio. Moreover, in the German textile manufacturing activities, improvements in energy efficiency are achieved mainly through process changes encouraged by energy prices and as an investment strategy, whereas in the Colombian textile manufacturing activities, improvements in energy efficiency are achieved mainly by changes in the production processes, investments in R&D and application of new technologies. These results show the importance of technology, economies of scale, and energy efficiency-oriented policies and management strategies in improving energy efficiency within the textile industry.
    Date: 2009–07–25
  8. By: Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
    Abstract: Using data at the three-digit level of aggregation, the study compares energy efficiency across sectors of the food industry for the period 1998-2005. Energy efficiency is analysed using the energy intensity indicator as well as a decomposition analysis. To determine the factors that have influenced energy efficiency performance. The results showed that both countries’ food industries improved energy efficiency. During the period of study, energy consumption in the German food industry increased by an average of 1.3% per year and the energy intensity decreased 7%, whereas the Colombian food industry decreased its energy consumption by an average of 1.9% per the year and the energy intensity decreased 11%. However, Colombian food industry needs 2.2 times more energy than German food industry to produce a unit of gross production. A decomposition analysis indicated that economic and technical factors have played an important role in the energy efficiency performance because increases in economic growth and technology improvements increase the industrial sector’s ability to improve energy efficiency. A second-stage empirical analysis reveals that capital, material, investments and value added variables had a positive influence on energy efficiency performance in both countries. Energy prices are shown to have a positive influence on energy efficiency in the German food industry, whereas the sizes of enterprises and concentration processes played an important role on energy efficiency performance in the Colombian food industry.
    Date: 2009–12–07
  9. By: Holmberg, P.; Newbery, D.
    Abstract: The supply function equilibrium provides a game-theoretic model of strategic bidding in oligopolistic wholesale electricity auctions. This paper presents an intuitive account of current understanding and shows how welfare losses depend on the number of firms in the market and their asymmetry. Previous results and general recommendations for divisible-good/multi-unit auctions provides guidance on the design of the auction format, setting the reservation price, the rationing rule, and restrictions on the offer curves in wholesale electricity auctions.
    Keywords: Wholesale electricity markets, supply function equilibria, auction design, competition policy, market regulation
    JEL: D43 D44 C62 L94
    Date: 2010–03–15
  10. By: Miguel A. Espinosa; Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas
    Abstract: By means of a suitable Bayesian game we study spot electricity markets from a structural point of view. We address the problem of individual and aggregate eficciency and we show how to value water from market observables. We compare the former to engineering methods and apply our methodology to Colombian spot electricity market. Our results show that big gas and small hydro plants overbid, resources are undervalued by engineering costs and aggregate costs would have been considerably smaller if agents had played optimally. Revealed costs show a substantial gain in eficciency in the Vickrey auction compared to the actual uniform auction.
    Date: 2010–03–07
  11. By: Anaya, K.L.
    Abstract: This paper attempts to assess the social welfare impact of the restructuring and privatisation of the electricity market in Peru. The target companies, Electrolima and Electro Sur Medio, account for 64 per cent of the total distribution market and 100 per cent of the privatised distribution companies respectively. Actual and counterfactual operating costs are examined. A separate analysis is performed for each company, due to the differences in terms of economies of scale and market structure. The benefits of being connected were also computed based on counterfactual scenarios. Companies that were not privatised (benchmark companies) were used for making appropriate comparisons and for determining our preferred counterfactual cost decline. Benchmark companies were also important for analysing the trend in quality issues. The results show that privatisation was worthwhile and that the social welfare of being connected has an important contribution on it. Government and producers benefited the most and consumers the least due to price increase.
    Keywords: Cost benefit analysis, restructuring and privatisation, electricity market, Peru
    JEL: D61 H43 L94
    Date: 2010–03–15
  12. By: Andrew Sharpe; Celeste Bradley
    Abstract: In recent years, the productivity performance of oil and gas extraction in Canada has been dismal. Based on official real GDP and labour input estimates from Statistics Canada, labour productivity in oil and gas extraction fell 8.23 per cent per year between the 2000 cyclical peak and 2007, with capital productivity down 5.97 per cent per year over the same period and total factor productivity (TFP) off 6.67 per cent per year between 2000 and 2006. Among the various hypotheses put forward to explain these trends, the most robust seems to be that higher output prices have suppressed productivity growth through two effects: increased exploitation of low-productivity marginal deposits, and business decisions based on profitability rather than productivity. Despite the rapid decline in productivity in oil and gas extraction, it is not necessarily true that Canadians are worse off. In fact, increased output prices and employment shares in the industry, as well as the high productivity level, have resulted in positive contributions to Canada‟s aggregate labour productivity growth from 2000 to 2006.
    Keywords: productivity, mining, oil and gas, resource extraction, labour productivity, output per hour, capital intensity, total factor productivity, Canada
    JEL: O13 O30 O51 J00 E23 Q30 D24 J08
    Date: 2009–09
  13. By: Méjean, A.; Hope, C.
    Abstract: High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil (SCO) produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is obtained by upgrading bitumen that is first produced through mining or in-situ recovery techniques. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian bitumen deposits. The results show the uncertainties associated with the future costs of synthetic crude oil. Carbon costs have a large impact of the total costs of synthetic crude oil, in particular in the case of synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen, due to the carbon-intensity of the recovery techniques. The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined. In the case of mined SCO, the maximum production rate, the ultimate recovery rate and the depletion parameters show the largest influence on the results, while learning parameters dominate in the case of in-situ SCO.
    Keywords: Non-conventional oil; Uncertainty; Social cost of carbon
    JEL: Q42 Q54
    Date: 2010–03–15
  14. By: Jeffrey A. Frankel
    Abstract: It is striking how often countries with oil or other natural resource wealth have failed to grow more rapidly than those without. This is the phenomenon known as the Natural Resource Curse. The principle has been borne out in some econometric tests of the determinants of economic performance across a comprehensive sample of countries. This paper considers six aspects of commodity wealth, each of interest in its own right, but each also a channel that some have suggested could lead to sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of manufacturing, civil war, poor institutions, and the Dutch Disease. Skeptics have questioned the Natural Resource Curse, pointing to examples of commodity-exporting countries that have done well and arguing that resource endowments and booms are not exogenous. The paper concludes with a consideration of institutions and policies that some commodity-producers have tried, in efforts to overcome the pitfalls of the Curse. Ideas include indexation of oil contracts, hedging of export proceeds, denomination of debt in terms of oil, Chile-style fiscal rules, a monetary target that emphasizes product prices, transparent commodity funds, and lump-sum distribution.
    JEL: O1 Q0
    Date: 2010–03
  15. By: Hassan Benchekroun; Cees Withagen
    Abstract: We consider a nonrenewable resource game with one cartel and a set of fringe members. We show that (i) the outcomes of the closed-loop and the open-loop nonrenewable resource game with the fringe members as price takers (the cartel-fringe game a la Salant 1976) coincide and (ii) when the number of fringe firms becomes arbitrarily large, the equilibrium outcome of the closed-loop Nash game does not coincide with the equilibrium outcome of the closed-loop cartel-fringe game. Thus, the outcome of the cartel-fringe open-loop equilibrium can be supported as an outcome of a subgame perfect equilibrium. However the interpretation of the cartel-fringe model, where from the outset the fringe is assumed to be price taker, as a limit case of an asymmetric oligopoly with the agents playing Nash-Cournot, does not extend to the case where firms can use closed-loop strategies.
    JEL: D43 Q30 L13
    Date: 2010–03
  16. By: Sedjo, Roger A. (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) of the Department of Agriculture has proposed regulations to implement the new Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP). Authorized in the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008, BCAP is designed to ensure that a sufficiently large base of new nonfood, nonfeed biomass crops is established in anticipation of future demand for renewable energy consumption. BCAP “is intended to assist agricultural and forest land owners and operators with the establishment and production of eligible crops including wood biomass in selected project areas for conversion to bioenergy, and the collection, harvest, storage, and transportation of eligible material for use in a biomass conversion facility” (U.S. Department of Agriculture 2010, 6266). The program is proposed for a limited period of time. This paper examines some of BCAP’s implications for wood flows and for the various components of the forest industry, particularly wood growers and mill operators.
    Keywords: biomass, biofuels, renewable resources, energy, bioenergy, wood, forests
    JEL: Q2 Q4 Q5
    Date: 2010–03–30
  17. By: Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC))
    Abstract: Expanded mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard provide ethanol and biodiesel producers a guaranteed future market at volumes that exceed what they have produced in the past. Despite having these mandates in place, biofuel producers continue to support tax credits and ethanol import tariffs. An examination of how the new mandates will be implemented shows that biofuel producers will receive little or no additional benefit from tax credits. Ethanol import tariffs will continue to provide U.S. corn ethanol producers a cost advantage over imported Brazilian sugarcane ethanol until at least 2013 when the demand for sugarcane ethanol to meet the noncellulosic advanced biofuel mandate starts to increase.
    Keywords: biodiesel, biofuel tax credit, biofuels mandates, corn ethanol, ethanol import tariffs, fuel subsidies, sugarcane ethanol, Renewable Identification Numbers.
    Date: 2010–03
  18. By: Carl Gaigné (INRA-ESR - Unité d'économie et de sociologie rurales - INRA); Stéphane Riou (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines); Jacques-François Thisse (CORE - Université Catholique de Louvain)
    Abstract: There is a large consensus among international institutions and national governments to favor urban-containment policies - the compact city - as a way to reduce the ecological footprint of cities. This approach overlooks the following basic trade-off: the concentration of activities decreases the ecological footprint stemming from commodity shipping between cities, but it increases emissions of greenhouse gas by inducing longer worktrips. What matters for the ecological footprint of cities is the mix between urban density and the global pattern of activities. As expected, when both the intercity and intraurban distributions of activities are given, a higher urban density makes cities more environmentally friendly and raises global welfare. However, once we account for the fact that cities may be either monocentric or polycentric as well as for the relocation of activities between cities, the relationship between density and the ecological footprints appears to be much more involved. Indeed, because changes in urban density affect land rents and wages, firms are incited to relocate, thus leading to new commuting patterns. We show policies that favor the decentralization of jobs in big cities may reduce global pollution and improve global welfare.
    Keywords: greenhouse gas; commuting costs; transport costs; cities; urban containment policy
    Date: 2010
  19. By: Laing, T.; Grubb, M.
    Abstract: There has been a wide discussion on the different properties between carbon taxes, cap-and-trade schemes and hybrid instruments such as cap-and-trade schemes with price floors and ceilings. There has been less discussion on the incentives to investment that each of these instruments may provide. We build a three-period model to investigate the incentives offered to a large firm with diversified abatement options from such instruments when facing a choice between investing in lowcarbon technologies with potential learning benefits. We parameterise our model for a system similar to the EUETS and for two sample technologies, biomass for electricity and coal with carbon capture and storage. For both technologies we find that cap-and-trade schemes generate greater mean returns to such an investment than taxes, but with a wider distribution. We find that introducing price floors increase such mean returns while reducing the distribution, while ceilings further reduce the distribution, but also the mean and thus the overall incentives they offer will depend on the risk preference of the firm and scale of investment in relation to overall compliance costs.
    Keywords: Carbon Markets, Investment, Cap-and-trade, CCS, Biomass
    Date: 2010–02–15
  20. By: Mourad Afif; Sandrine Spaeter
    Abstract: In this paper, we focus on the adverse selection issue that prevails in an economy when the regulator is not able to observe the type of the abate- ment costs of the firms. The regulator decides the total level of emission that minimizes the total social cost and he sells them to the firms at some di¤erentiated prices. When firms can hide their type relative to their true abatement costs, prices must not only minimize the social cost of the envir- onmental policy. They must also induce the firms to reveal their true type. A striking point of our model is that there is no participation constraint for firms are compelled to be actors of the environmental policy. Another original result concerns the rent, which still benefits to low-cost types, but which appears to be a fee paid by high-cost types.
    Keywords: Regulation; adverse selection; emission permits; abatement costs; price differentiation.
    JEL: D82 H23 Q52
    Date: 2010
  21. By: Hobbs, B.F.; Bushnell, J.; Wolak, F.A.
    Abstract: In electricity, “downstream” CO2 regulation requires retail suppliers to buy energy from a mix of sources so that their weighted emissions satisfy a standard. It has been argued that such “load-based” regulation would solve emissions leakage, cost consumers less, and provide more incentive for energy efficiency than traditional source-based cap-andtrade programs. Because pure load-based trading complicates spot power markets, variants (GEAC and CO2RC) that separate emissions attributes from energy have been proposed. When all energy producers and consumers come under such a system, these load-based programs are equivalent to source-based trading in which emissions allowances are allocated by various rules, and have no necessary cost advantage. The GEAC and CO2RC systems are equivalent to giving allowances free to generators, and requiring consumers either to subsidize generation or buy back excess allowances, respectively. As avoided energy costs under source-based and pure load-based trading are equal, the latter provides no additional incentive for energy efficiency. The speculative benefits of load-based systems are unjustified in light of their additional administrative complexity and cost, the threat that they pose to the competitiveness and efficiency of electricity spot markets, and the complications that would arise when transition to a federal cap-and-trade system occurs.
    Keywords: Emissions trading, greenhouse gas regulation, electricity market models
    JEL: Q52 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2010–03–15
  22. By: Conrad, Christian; Rittler, Daniel; Rotfuß, Waldemar
    Abstract: In this paper we model the adjustment process of European Union Allowance (EUA) prices to the releases of announcements at high-frequency controlling for intraday periodicity, volatility clustering and volatility persistence. We find that the high-frequency EUA price dynamics are very well captured by a fractionally integrated asymmetric power GARCH process. The decisions of the European Commission on second National Allocation Plans have a strong and immediate impact on EUA prices. On the other hand, our results suggest that EUA prices are only weakly connected to indicators about the future economic development as well as the current economic activity.
    Keywords: EU ETS; EUA; Second NAPs; Announcement Effects; Price Formation
    Date: 2010–03–30
  23. By: Blonz, Joshua (Resources for the Future); Burtraw, Dallas (Resources for the Future); Walls, Margaret A. (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of climate change. This paper focuses on uncertainty that is introduced in the implementation of policy, especially as it affects the level and distribution of the burden on households that results from the allocation of emissions allowances. We examine the Waxman–Markey bill (H.R. 2454), with bookend scenarios labeled optimistic and pessimistic. The scenarios vary outcomes associated with allocations to local distribution companies, investments in electricity energy efficiency and technology development. We introduce a third scenario that allocates a substantial portion of allowance value directly to households. We find the average consumer surplus loss per household in 2016 in the optimistic scenario to be $136 and the allowance price is as low as $13.20 per ton. In the pessimistic scenario, the consumer surplus loss rises to $413, with an allowance price of $23.43 per ton. Allocation of allowance value directly back to households provides an intermediate, but more certain, result.
    Keywords: cap-and-trade, allocation, distributional effects, cost burden, equity, regulation,local distribution companies
    JEL: H22 H23 Q52 Q54
    Date: 2010–03–31
  24. By: Martin Koning (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I); Rémy Prud'Homme (Université Paris XII - Université Paris XII Val de Marne); Pierre Kopp (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)
    Abstract: On the southern part of the Parisian Maréchaux' boulevards, the old bus line Petite Ceinture has been replaced by a modern tramway (T3). Simultaneously, the road-space has been narrowed by about a third. A survey conducted on 1,000 users of the T3 shows that the tramway hardly generated any modal report from the private cars (PC) towards the public transit (PT). However, it did generate important intra-modal transfers: from bus and subways towards tramway concerning the PT, surely from Maréchaux' boulevards towards the Parisian Ring-Road (boulevard périphérique, PRR) and/or adjacent streets for the PC. The various benefits and costs of these changes are evaluated in this research. The welfare gains made by PT users are more than compensated by the time losses of the motorists, and in particular, by the additional cost of road congestion on the PRR. The same conclusion applies with regard to CO2 emissions: the reductions saved with the replacement of the busses and some (few) PC are less important than the increased pollution induced by the lengthening of the automobile trips and the increased congestion on the PRR. Even if one ignores the initial investment of 350 M€, the social impact of the T3 project, illustrated by its Clear Discount Value (CDV), is strongly negative. This is especially true for suburbanites. Concerning the lonely inhabitants (electors) of Paris, our analysis shows that they pocket the main part of the benefits while supporting a weak fraction of the costs.
    Keywords: Tramway, Costs-Benefits Analysis, Road Congestion, CO2 Emissions
    Date: 2010–01–14
  25. By: Juan Arenas (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)
    Abstract: En este estudio se analiza la relación entre los eventos extremos ocasionados por el cambio climático en Bolivia y la pérdida económica de la infraestructura productiva (carreteras, edificios, etcétera) y del sector agropecuario. Las relaciones entre el cambio climático y los desastres naturales, y el probable efecto de estas sobre variables socioeconómicas, han generado un debate académico y científico que es relativamente reciente. Se puede esperar que el cambio climático se manifieste a través de lluvias torrenciales más fuertes, las que ocasionarán inundaciones más frecuentes y también más dañinas. Las inundaciones por los efectos de El Niño podrían ser más severas, consecuencia de un clima más cálido. En regiones con vulnerabilidad ante las inundaciones, las inundaciones se constituyen en una amenaza a tomar en cuenta con prioridad, y Bolivia tiene amplias regiones vulnerables. Las inundaciones son los fenómenos climáticos extremos más frecuentes y que más daño causan en el país, por la frecuencia con la que se presentan y por los efectos sobre la población y la economía. Las inundaciones se presentan durante la época de lluvias, afectando a buena parte del país, principalmente en los llanos orientales. Los escenarios futuros de mayores precipitaciones a causa del cambio climático, implicarán que los daños económicos serán más frecuentes en las regiones con mayor vulnerabilidad hacia las inundaciones. En el marco del Plan Nacional de Rehabilitación y Reconstrucción, se efectuó un relevamiento de la demanda de proyectos de rehabilitación y reconstrucción a nivel de las regiones afectadas por los eventos de El Niño y La Niña (2006-2008). Las inundaciones devastadoras causadas por estos eventos dejaron pérdidas económicas por 704 millones de dólares en la infraestructura pública, representando el sector de transportes el 73% de los eventos/daños a la infraestructura (daños a carreteras y caminos). Estas inundaciones dejaron también pérdidas económicas por 410 millones de dólares en la ganadería y la agricultura. Utilizando la información sobre la precipitación diaria promedio observada, se ha establecido una relación entre precipitación y daño en infraestructura pública y producción agropecuaria por kilómetro cuadrado, en los departamentos de Santa Cruz y Beni. Tomando en cuenta además las estimaciones de precipitación que se tienen en los escenarios PRECIS A2 y B2, se identificaron para los departamentos de Santa Cruz y Beni aquellos períodos entre 2071 y 2100 en los que las condiciones de cambio climático van a originar situaciones de lluvias similares o superiores en magnitud a las que se dieron en el fenómeno de El Niño (tomado como referente de umbral de precipitación). Se establece que en niveles de precipitación ocasionados por el cambio climático entre 2071 y 2100, superiores a este umbral y por lo tanto significando episodios de lluvia fuertes, se experimentarán inundaciones que ocasionarán pérdidas económicas en las regiones. Se estiman entonces los efectos sobre el PIB nacional, que hubieran tenido efecto bajo las precipitaciones proyectadas. Estos porcentajes estimados de PIB afectado por pérdidas en la infraestructura y en la producción agropecuaria, son aplicados posteriormente a la serie de datos estimados del PIB nacional entre los años 2071 y 2100, para obtener el daño económico cada año del período. Un escenario sin cambio climático es construido para el período 2071-2100, utilizando los datos históricos de precipitación correspondientes al período 1961-1990. Para esto se toma a este período como representativo de una situación en la que no se experimentó el cambio climático, por lo que los datos históricos de precipitación esos años, también se toman como referentes de una situación sin cambio climático. Siguiendo la misma metodología utilizada para estimar los costos económicos en infraestructura pública y en el sector agropecuario, bajo el efecto del cambio climático, se han estimado los costos económicos sin cambio climático. La estimación del daño en millones de dólares de 2007, por efectos del cambio climático (a través de fuertes precipitaciones e inundaciones) en el escenario A2, indica que los daños en la infraestructura pública desde al año 2071 y hasta el año 2100, tendrán un costo económico de 93 mil millones de dólares[1], representando un promedio anual de 3.113 millones de dólares. La diferencia anual promedio entre los valores de la situación con cambio climático y la estimación sin cambio climático es de 1.019 millones de dólares, es decir que en promedio cada año entre 2071 y 2100 el costo incremental por efecto del cambio climático en el sector de infraestructura pública será de 1.019 millones de dólares. Desde al año 2071 y hasta el año 2100, el costo económico por pérdidas agropecuarias tendrá un valor de 82 mil millones de dólares, representando un promedio anual de 2.726 millones de dólares. Acá la diferencia anual promedio entre los valores de la situación con cambio climático y sin cambio climático es de 1.158 millones de dólares, es decir que entre 2071 y 2100 el costo incremental promedio anual por efecto del cambio climático en el sector agropecuario será de 1.158 millones de dólares. Las investigaciones futuras deben profundizar en el conocimiento de los impactos del cambio climático en el país. Es muy importante crear mecanismos de evaluación económica de los daños, no solamente en situaciones de grandes desastres, sino de los eventos “habituales” de origen natural que enfrenta constantemente el país. La capacidad de planificación y adaptación ante el cambio climático no debe aparecer solamente cuando se presenta un desastre, siendo necesario fortalecer (sino es crear) la capacidad de adaptación en el país.
    Keywords: Cambio Climático, Bolivia, Eventos Extremos, Infraestructura Pública
    JEL: Q54 Q56
    Date: 2009–12
  26. By: Shardul Agrawala; Maëlis Carraro
    Abstract: Much of the current policy debate on adaptation to climate change has focussed on estimation of adaptation costs, ways to raise and to scale-up funding for adaptation, and the design of the international institutional architecture for adaptation financing. There is however little or no emphasis so far on actual delivery mechanisms to channel these resources at the sub-national level, particularly to target the poor who are also often the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It is in this context that microfinance merits a closer look. This paper offers the first empirical assessment of the linkages between microfinance supported activities and adaptation to climate change. Specifically, the lending portfolios of the 22 leading microfinance institutions in two climate vulnerable countries – Bangladesh and Nepal - are analysed to assess the synergies and potential conflicts between microfinance and adaptation. The two countries had also been previously examined as part of an earlier OECD report on the links between macro-level Official Development Assistance and adaptation. This analysis provides a complementary “bottom-up” perspective on financing for adaptation. Insights from this analysis also have implications for OECD countries. This is because microfinance is also being increasingly tapped to reduce the vulnerability of the poor in domestic OECD contexts as well and may therefore have the potential to contribute to adaptation. The paper identifies areas of opportunity where microfinance could be harnessed to play a greater role in fostering adaptation, as well as its limitations in this context. It also explores the linkage between the top-down macro-financing for adaptation through international financial mechanisms and the bottom-up activities that can be implemented through microfinance.<BR>Une bonne partie du débat sur l’adaptation s’est concentrée sur l’estimation des coûts de l’adaptation, sur les moyens de mobiliser et d’intensifier les ressources financières nécessaires, et sur la conception d’une architecture institutionnelle internationale pour le financement de l’adaptation. Or, les mécanismes existants d’acheminement de ces ressources au niveau infranational, en particulier ceux ciblant les populations démunies qui sont souvent les plus vulnérables aux impacts du changement climatique, n’ont jusqu’à présent guère retenu l’attention. C’est dans ce contexte que la microfinance mérite d’être examinée de plus près. Le présent rapport offre la première évaluation empirique des liens entre les activités soutenues par la microfinance et l’adaptation au changement climatique. Il comporte une analyse des portefeuilles des 22 institutions principales de microfinance dans deux pays vulnérables au changement climatique – le Bangladesh et le Népal – qui doit permettre d’évaluer les synergies et les conflits éventuels entre la microfinance et l’adaptation. Ces deux pays ont déjà fait l’objet d’un examen préalable dans le cadre d’un autre rapport de l’OCDE sur les liens entre l’aide publique au développement au niveau macro-économique et l’adaptation. La présente analyse aborde le financement de l’adaptation selon une perspective « ascendante » complémentaire. Les pays de l’OCDE peuvent également bénéficier des éclaircissements apportés par cette analyse. En effet, la microfinance est également de plus en plus utilisée pour réduire la vulnérabilité des populations démunies dans le contexte national des pays de l’OCDE et pourrait donc être exploiter pour promouvoir l’adaptation. Ce rapport identifie également les domaines dans lesquels la microfinance pourrait être mise à profit pour jouer un rôle plus important dans l’adaptation, ainsi que les limites de ce mode de financement dans ce contexte. Enfin, il examine le lien entre l’approche « descendante » du macrofinancement de l’adaptation au moyen d’instruments financiers internationaux, et les activités ascendantes mises en oeuvre par le biais de la microfinance.
    JEL: Q54 Q56 R51
    Date: 2010–02–12

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