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on Energy Economics |
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Issue of 2009‒08‒22
sixteen papers chosen by Roger Fouquet Basque Climate Change Centre, Bilbao, Spain |
| By: | Stern, David I. |
| Abstract: | This paper develops economic definitions of energy quality for individual fuels and energy aggregates. There are both use- and exchange-value concepts as well as marginal and total measures of energy quality. A factor augmentation or quality coefficients approach corresponds to the use-value definition while indicators based on distance functions and relative prices are exchange-value based definitions. These indicators are identical when the elasticity of substitution between fuels is infinity but diverge or cannot be computed for other interfuel elasticities of substitution. Under zero substitutability only the quality coefficients approach is defined. I also find that the ratio of an energy volume index to aggregate joules cannot be considered a complete indicator of aggregate energy quality as it does not account for quality changes in the component fuels. |
| Keywords: | Energy; Quality; Productivity |
| JEL: | O47 Q40 D24 |
| Date: | 2009–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16857&r=ene |
| By: | Franz Fuerst (School of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading Business School); Patrick McAllister (School of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of voluntary eco-certification on the rental and sale prices of US commercial office properties. Hedonic and logistic regressions are used to test whether there are rental and sale price premiums for LEED and Energy Star certified buildings. The results of the hedonic analysis suggest that there is a rental premium of approximately 6% for LEED and Energy Star certification. A sale price premium of approximately 35% was found for 127 price observations involving LEED rated buildings and 31% for 662 buildings involving Energy Star rated buildings. When compared to samples of similar buildings identified by a binomial logistic regression for LEED-certified buildings, the existence of a rent and sales price premium is confirmed albeit with differences regarding the magnitude of the premium. Overall, the results of this study confirm that LEED and Energy Star buildings exhibit higher rental rates and sales prices per square foot controlling for a large number of location- and property-specific factors. |
| JEL: | R33 Q2 Q4 M2 C31 C5 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2009-07&r=ene |
| By: | Franz Fuerst (School of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading Business School); Patrick McAllister (School of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of eco-labeling on the occupancy rates of commercial offices in the US. The occupancy rates of LEED and Energy Star labeled offices are compared to a sample of non-labeled offices. Using OLS and quantile regression analyses, a significant positive relationship is found between occupancy rate and the eco-label. Controlling for differences in age, height, building class and quality, the results suggest that occupancy rates are approximately 8% higher in LEED labeled offices and 3% higher in Energy Star labeled offices. However, for Energy Star labeled offices effects are concentrated in certain market segments. |
| JEL: | Q4 C31 R33 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2009-08&r=ene |
| By: | Niels Haldrup (Aarhus University and CREATES); Frank S. Nielsen (Aarhus University and CREATES); Morten Ørregaard Nielsen (Queen's University and CREATES) |
| Abstract: | A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration, electricity prices, fractional integration, long memory, regime switching |
| JEL: | C32 |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1211&r=ene |
| By: | Reyno Seymore (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Philip David Adams (Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University); Margaret Mabugu (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Jan van Heerden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); James Blignaut (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | In the 2008 budget of the Minister of Finance, the South African Government proposed to impose a 2 cents/kilowatt-hour (c/kWh) tax on the sale of electricity generated from non-renewable sources; this tax is to be collected at source by the producers/generators of electricity. The intention of this measure is to serve a dual purpose of protecting the environment and helping to manage the current electricity supply shortages by reducing demand. The objective here is to evaluate the impact of such an electricity generation tax on the South African, SACU and SADC economies. The paper firstly considers the theoretical foundations of an electricity generation tax supported by international experiences in this regard. This section also contrasts the suitability of a permit with a tax system to achieve CO2 emission reduction. We subsequently apply the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the South African, SACU and SADC economies. We simulate the proposed tax as a 10 percent increase in the output price of electricity. We assume a closure rule that allows unskilled labour to migrate and a limited skilled workforce. As expected, the electricity generation tax will reduce demand. Due to the decrease in domestic demand, export volume increases and import volume decreases, this is despite a weaker terms of trade. We also found that unemployment for unskilled labour increases and wages of skilled workers are expected to decrease. A unilateral electricity generation tax will benefit other SACU and SADC countries through an improvement in relative competitiveness, as shown by the improvement of the terms of trade for these regions. If, however, the benefits of pollution abatement are internalised, then electricity generation tax is expected to yield a positive effect on the South African economy. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200920&r=ene |
| By: | Roland Strausz |
| Abstract: | I investigate the argument that, in a two–party system with different regulatory objectives, political uncertainty generates regulatory risk. I show that this risk has a fluctuation effect that hurts both parties and an output–expansion effect that benefits one party. Consequently, at least one party dislikes regulatory risk. Moreover, both political parties gain from eliminating regulatory risk when political divergence is small or the winning probability of the regulatory–risk–averse party is not too large. Because of a commitment problem, direct political bargaining is insufficient to eliminate regulatory risk. Politically independent regulatory agencies solve this commitment problem. |
| Keywords: | regulation, regulatory risk, political economy, independent regulatory agency |
| JEL: | D82 |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-040&r=ene |
| By: | Reyno Seymore (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Margaret Mabugu (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Jan van Heerden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | The South African Government announced, in the 2008 Budget Review, the intention to tax the generation of electricity from non-renewable sources with 2c/kWh. This tax is to be collected by the producers/generators of electricity at the source. The intention of the tax is to serve a dual purpose of managing the potential electricity shortages in South Africa and to protect the environment. The primary objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the international competitiveness of South Africa. Specifically, different scenarios are assessed to establish whether the loss of competitiveness can be negated through an international, multilateral electricity generation tax. The paper firstly considers the beneficial impact of environmental taxation on the competitiveness of a country. We subsequently apply the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the competitiveness of South Africa, given multilateral taxes on SACU, SADC and European Union economies. We simulate the proposed tax as a 10 percent increase in the output price of electricity. We assume a closure rule that allows unskilled labour to migrate between sectors and a limited skilled workforce. As expected, a unilateral electricity generation tax in South Africa will adversely affect the competitiveness of the South African economy and slightly improve the competitiveness of the other SACU and SADC economies. However, if a multilateral tax is imposed throughout the SACU and SADC countries, South Africa will experience a marginally greater loss of competitiveness compared to a unilateral tax. At the same time the rest of the SACU and SADC countries will experience a loss of competitiveness. The benefit of emission reduction in South Africa will also be lower under these multilateral tax scenarios. The competitiveness effect on the South African economy as well as emission reduction will be more moderate under a multilateral South Africa/EU electricity generation tax than under a unilateral South African tax. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200919&r=ene |
| By: | Ansgar Belke; Daniel Gros |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this contribution is to illustrate the mechanism by which higher oil prices might lead to lower interest rates in the context of a simple model that takes into account the global external savings equilibrium. The simple model has interesting implications for how one views the huge US current account deficit and how the emergence of China’s savings surplus and oil supply shocks impact the global economy.We show that the new equilibrium is located at a lower interest rate but also at a lower income level than without the China effect. Moreover, we argue that the lower real interest rates resulting from excess OPEC savings have facilitated the adjustment to the subprime crisis. |
| Keywords: | China factor, current account adjustment, interest rate, oil prices, saving glut |
| JEL: | E21 E43 F32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0128&r=ene |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo); Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University and Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates univariate and multivariate conditional volatility and conditional correlation models of spot, forward and futures returns from three major benchmarks of international crude oil markets, namely Brent, WTI and Dubai, to aid in risk diversification. Conditional correlations are estimated using the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMAGARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2009), and DCC model of Engle (2002). The paper also presents the ARCH and GARCH effects for returns and shows the presence of significant interdependences in the conditional volatilities across returns for each market. The estimates of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects for negative and positive shocks on conditional variance suggest that VARMA-GARCH is superior to the VARMA-AGARCH model. In addition, the DCC model gives statistically significant estimates for the returns in each market, which shows that constant conditional correlations do not hold in practice. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf640&r=ene |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo); Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University and Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University) |
| Abstract: | Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC, VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecasted conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf641&r=ene |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo); Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University and Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillovers between the returns on crude oil futures and oil company stocks using alternative multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), and VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2008). The paper investigates WTI crude oil futures returns and the stock returns of ten oil companies, which comprise the "supermajor" group of oil companies, namely Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), Chevron Corporation (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP (BP) and Total S.A. (TOT), and four other large oil and gas companies, namely Petrobras (PBRA), Lukoil (LKOH), Surgutneftegas (SNGS), and Eni S.p.A. (ENI). Estimates of the conditional correlations between the WTI crude oil futures returns and oil company stock returns are found to be quite low using the CCC model, while the VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models suggest no significant volatility spillover effects in any pairs of returns. The paper also presents evidence of the asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances in all pairs of returns. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf639&r=ene |
| By: | Stephen P. Holland |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether an emissions tax (equivalent to an emissions cap) maximizes social welfare (defined as the sum of consumer and producer surplus) in the presence of incomplete regulation (leakage) or market power by analyzing an intensity standard regulating emissions per unit of output. With no other market failures, an intensity standard indeed yields lower welfare, although combining it with a consumption tax eliminates this discrepancy. For incomplete regulation, I show that under certain conditions an intensity standard can yield higher welfare than any emissions tax (including the optimal emissions tax). This result persists even with the addition of a consumption tax, which ameliorates output distortions and can sometimes help the intensity standard attain the first best (when an emissions tax/consumption tax combination cannot). Comparing intensity standards to output-based updating shows that the latter yields higher welfare because of its additional flexibility. Finally, I show that with market power an intensity standard can yield higher welfare than the optimal emissions tax. The intuition of these results is relatively straightforward. The weakness of an intensity standard is that it relies more on substitution effects than output effects to reduce emissions. With incomplete regulation or market power, this disadvantage may be helpful since leakage may offset gains from reducing output and since market power already inefficiently reduces output. |
| JEL: | H23 Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15262&r=ene |
| By: | Peter Wyatt (School of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the extent to which office activity contributes to travel-related CO2 emission. Travel accounts for 32% of UK CO2 emission and commuting and business travel accounts for a fifth of transport-related CO2 emissions, equating to 6.4% of total UK emissions. Figures from the Department for Transport (2006) report that 70% of commuting trips were made by car, accounting for 73% of all commuting miles travelled. In assessing the environmental performance of an office building, the paper questions whether commuting and business travel-related CO2 emission is being properly assessed. For example, are office buildings in locations that are easily accessible by public transport being sufficiently rewarded? The de facto method for assessing the environmental performance of office buildings in the UK is the Building Research Establishment’s Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM). Using data for Bristol, this paper examines firstly whether BREEAM places sufficient weight on travel-related CO2 emission in comparison with building operation-related CO2 emission, and secondly whether the methodology for assigning credits for for travel-related CO2 emission efficiency is capable of discerning intra-urban differences in location such as city centre and out-of-town. The results show that, despite CO2 emission per worker from building operation and travel being comparable, there is a substantial difference in the credit-weighting allocated to each. Under the current version of BREEAM for offices, only a maximum of 4% of the available credits can be awarded for ensuring the office location is environmentally sustainable. The results also show that all locations within the established city centre of Bristol will receive maximum BREEAM credits. Given the parameters of the test there is little to distinguish one city centre location from another and out of town only one office location receives any credits. It would appear from these results that the assessment method is not able to discern subtle differences in the sustainability of office locations. |
| Keywords: | transport, CO2, real estate, environmental performance |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2009-06&r=ene |
| By: | Stefano Balbi (PhD Candidate in Analysis and Governance of Sustainable Development, Ca' Foscari University of Venice.); Carlo Giupponi (Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Economics Center for Environmental Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components. |
| Keywords: | Review, Agent-Based Modelling, Socio-Ecosystems, Climate Change, Adaptation, Complexity. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2009_15&r=ene |
| By: | Ingmar Schumacher (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between environmental preferences and the environment. Preferences are transmitted intergenerationally and through social interactions, where we assume that agents are more likely to adopt environmental preferences the larger the amount of pollution. In the basic setting we find that both converge non-monotonically towards an interior steady state. When including technical change we notice that there will be no change in the steady state level of the environment unless technical change is sufficiently strong, which stands in stark contrast to the literature. Upon introducing environmental laws we find that these may lead to a virtually pollution-free environment. This happens if environmental laws are implemented when public support is strong enough. 1 Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau Cedex, France. email: ingmar.schumacher@polytechnique.edu. tel: 0033 169333038. The author kindly acknowledges the helpful comments by two anonymous referees. |
| Date: | 2009–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00392379_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Clément De Chaisemartin (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X); Thuriane Mahé (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | We explore the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to fight climate change in a choice experiment. Since tree planting prevents climate change, subjects are offered to choose between receiving a high amount of money or receiving a lower amount of money plus participating to tree planting action. This allows us to get an individual interval of the WTP to prevent climate change. We also set the experiment to control for framing effects: we measure whether subjects WTP is higher not to prevent a tree planting action (negative framing) than to contribute to it (positive framing). Finally, we measure subjects' individual characteristics like altruism and risk aversion with a questionnaire, to understand the determinants of WTP. The results show that the WTP to prevent climate change is high: subjects are ready to give up half their gains to participate to a tree planting action. Women tend to have a higher WTP. We also find that both altruistic and self-interested motives can explain WTP. Surprisingly, their degree of knowledge of climate change related issues do not influence subjects WTP. Finally, when the choice is negatively phrased, WTP increases: subjects are ready to pay more not to make the number of trees planted decrease than to increase it. This suggests that negative eco-labelling might have a greater impact on consumer preferences than positive labels. |
| Keywords: | willingness-to-pay, preferences elicitation, carbon-offset schemes, framing effect, climate change. |
| Date: | 2009–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00370738_v1&r=ene |