nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2008‒12‒01
nineteen papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Imperial College, UK

  1. Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions by means of Tradable Emissions Permits and the Implications for Irish Farmers By Breen, James P.
  2. Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil By Korhonen, Iikka; Ledyaeva, Svetlana
  3. Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries By Kamilya Tazhibayeva; Anna Ter-Martirosyan; Aasim M. Husain
  4. The Importance of Revenue Sharing for the Local Economic Impacts of a Renewable Energy Project: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach By Grant Allan, Graham Ault, Peter McGregor and Kim Swales; Graham Ault; Peter McGregor; Kim Swales
  5. Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy By Mark Weisbrot; Rebecca Ray
  6. Oil and the duration of dictatorships By Jesus Crespo Cuaresma; Harald Oberhofer; Paul Raschky
  7. Imperfect Enforcement of Emissions Trading and Industry Welfare: A Laboratory Investigation By Stranlund, John K.; Murphy, James J.; Spraggon, John M.
  8. Bankruptcy Risk and Imperfectly Enforced Emissions Taxes By Stranlund, John K.; Zhang, Wei
  9. Biofuels: Impact of Selected Farm Bill Provisions and other Biofuel Policy Options By Westhoff, Pat; Thompson, Wyatt; Meyer, Seth
  10. Tradable Permits in Developing Countries: Evidence from air pollution in Santiago, Chile By Coria, Jessica; Sterner, Thomas
  11. Optimal monetary policy and the transmission of oil-supply shocks to the euro area under rational expectations. By Stéphane Adjemian; Matthieu Darracq Pariès
  12. Oil exporters - in search of an external anchor. By Maurizio Michael Habib; Jan Stráský
  13. Contract Parameters' Impacts on Coal Prices By Lange, Ian
  14. L’industrie gazière russe et son poids dans l’équilibre mondial By Catherine Locatelli
  15. Bio-energy from Mountain Pine Beetle Timber and Forest Residuals: The Economics Story By Kurt Niquidet; Brad Stennes; G.Cornelis van Kooten
  16. Education, Corruption and the Natural Resource Curse By Max Iván Aladave Ruiz; Cecilia Garcìa-Peñalosa
  17. Washington Biofuel Feedstock Supply under Price Uncertainty By Zheng, Qiujie; Shumway, C. Richard
  18. L’évolution des relations contractuelles dans le domaine pétrolier By Jean-Pierre Angelier
  19. Bioenergía en la Unión Europea By Emilio Cerdá; Alejandro Caparrós; PaolaOvando

  1. By: Breen, James P.
    Abstract: The increasing concern over climate change has led to a number of international agreements to control greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture currently accounts for 28 percent of Ireland€ٳ total greenhouse gas emission and therefore has a major role to play in Ireland achieving its emissions targets. To date research into reducing emissions from Irish agriculture has focused on devising abatement strategies at the farm level such as changes in animal feeding practices. Alternatively emissions could be controlled using market-based emissions abatement strategies such as emissions taxes or permit trading, which are in theory a least cost means of cutting emissions. This paper uses data from the Irish National Farm Survey to construct a farm-level Linear Programming model and to simulate a market for tradable emission permits. The impact on average gross margin of allowing farmers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by trading permits is compared with a scenario where emissions are unconstrained and a scenario where a command and control approach is adopted to reduce emissions.
    Keywords: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Farm-level Modeling, Linear Programming, Irish Agriculture, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management,
    Date: 2008
  2. By: Korhonen, Iikka (BOFIT); Ledyaeva, Svetlana (BOFIT)
    Abstract: In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consumer economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (Russia and Canada here) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock, leading to a price increase of 50%, boosts Russian GDP by some 12%. However, oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of oil shocks, as economic activity in their export countries suffers. For oil consumers, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output drops in response to an oil price shock, while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes. Finally, indirect effects are also detected for oil-consumer countries. Those countries trading more with oil producers receive indirect benefits via higher demand from the oil producing countries. In general the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found in China, USA and Japan while European countries seem to fare quite well during recent positive oil-price shocks.
    Keywords: oil; macroeconomic fluctuations; trade linkages; Russia
    JEL: C32 E32 F43 Q43
    Date: 2008–11–21
  3. By: Kamilya Tazhibayeva; Anna Ter-Martirosyan; Aasim M. Husain
    Abstract: This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
    Keywords: Oil exporting countries , Fiscal policy , Business cycles , Oil prices , Nonoil sector , Economic growth , Economic models ,
    Date: 2008–11–07
  4. By: Grant Allan, Graham Ault, Peter McGregor and Kim Swales (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Graham Ault (Institute for Energy and Environment, Electronic and Electrical Engineering Department, University of Strathclyde); Peter McGregor (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde; Institute for Energy and Environment, Electronic and Electrical Engineering Department, University of Strathclyde); Kim Swales (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: As demand for electricity from renewable energy sources grows, there is increasing interest, and public and financial support, for local communities to become involved in the development of renewable energy projects. In the UK, “Community Benefit” payments are the most common financial link between renewable energy projects and local communities. These are “goodwill” payments from the project developer for the community to spend as it wishes. However, if an ownership stake in the renewable energy project were possible, receipts to the local community would potentially be considerably higher. The local economic impacts of these receipts are difficult to quantify using traditional Input-Output techniques, but can be more appropriately handled within a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework where income flows between agents can be traced in detail. We use a SAM for the Shetland Islands to evaluate the potential local economic and employment impact of a large onshore wind energy project proposed for the Islands. Sensitivity analysis is used to show how the local impact varies with: the level of Community Benefit payments; the portion of intermediate inputs being sourced from within the local economy; and the level of any local community ownership of the project. By a substantial margin, local ownership confers the greatest economic impacts for the local community.
    Keywords: renewable energy; rural economic impacts; revenue sharing; community ownership
    JEL: Q42 R15 O18
    Date: 2008–10
  5. By: Mark Weisbrot; Rebecca Ray
    Abstract: This paper looks at Venezuela’s export revenue, imports, and trade and current account balances under a range of oil price outcomes for the next two years. It finds that Venezuela would run large current account surpluses for prices between $60-90 per barrel, and would even run a small surplus with prices at $50 per barrel. (Most oil industry estimates for the next two years are in the range of $80-90 per barrel). The authors conclude that Venezuela is unlikely to run into foreign exchange constraints in the foreseeable future, and can pursue expansionary fiscal policies to counter any economic downturn.
    Keywords: Venezuela, Venezuelan oil exports, Venezuelan government revenue
    JEL: E E6 E62 F F1 F14 O54 Q4 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2008–11
  6. By: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma; Harald Oberhofer; Paul Raschky
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple model that analyses the relationship between a country’s oil endowment and the duration of its autocratic leader. The dictator uses the rents from oil extraction for both personal gain and to pay-off potential opposition and chooses an optimal level of oil exploitation. A group of kingmakers, on the other side, decides whether to stage a coup d’état and establish a new dictator. The relationship between oil endowment and the duration of the dictatorial regime is modulated by the price of oil. Applying an empirical survival model on data for the duration of 106 dictatorships supports the predictions of the theoretical model.
    Keywords: Natural resources, dictatorship, political economy, duration.
    JEL: Q34 D72 H11
  7. By: Stranlund, John K.; Murphy, James J.; Spraggon, John M.
    Abstract: This paper uses laboratory experiments to investigate the performance of emission permit markets when compliance is imperfectly enforced. In particular we examine deviations in observed aggregate payoffs and expected penalties from those derived from a model of risk-neutral payoff-maximizing firms. We find that the experimental emissions markets were reasonably efficient at allocating individual emission control choices despite imperfect enforcement and significant noncompliance. However, violations and expected penalties were lower than predicted when these are predicted to be high, but were about the same as predicted values when these values were predicted to be low. Thus, although a standard model of compliance with emissions trading programs tends to predict significantly higher violations than we observe when subjects have strong incentives to violate their emissions permits, individual emissions control responsibilities are distributed among firms as predicted.
    Keywords: enforcement, compliance, emissions trading, permit markets, pollution, laboratory experiments, Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics, C91, L51, Q58,
    Date: 2008–07
  8. By: Stranlund, John K.; Zhang, Wei
    Abstract: Under favorable but reasonable conditions, an imperfectly enforced emissions tax produces the efficient allocation of individual emissions control; aggregate emissions are independent of whether enforcement of the tax is sufficient to induce the full compliance of firms, and differences in individual violations are independent of firm-level differences. All of these desirable characteristics disappear when some firms under an emissions tax risk bankruptcy€Դhe allocation of emissions control is inefficient, imperfect enforcement causes higher aggregate emissions, and financially insecure firms choose higher violations.
    Keywords: Bankruptcy, Emissions Taxes, Limited Liability, Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, L51, Q28, Q58,
    Date: 2008–07
  9. By: Westhoff, Pat; Thompson, Wyatt; Meyer, Seth
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2008–06
  10. By: Coria, Jessica (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sterner, Thomas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: Santiago was one of the first cities outside the OECD to implement a tradable permit program to control air pollution. This paper looks closely at the program’s performance over the past ten years, stressing its similarities and discrepancies with trading programs implemented in developed countries, and analyzing how it has reacted to regulatory adjustments and market shocks. Studying Santiago's experience allows us to discuss the drawbacks and advantages of applying tradable permits in less developed countries
    Keywords: air pollution; environmental policy; tradable permits; developing countries
    JEL: Q53 Q58
    Date: 2008–11–19
  11. By: Stéphane Adjemian (Université du Maine, Avenue Olivier Messiaen, 72085 Le Mans Cedex 9, France.); Matthieu Darracq Pariès (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: This paper presents first the estimation of a two-country DSGE model for the euro area and the rest-of-the-world including relevant oil-price channels. We then investigate the optimal resolution of the policy tradeoffs emanating from oil-price disturbances. Our simulations show that the inflationary forces related to the use of oil as an intermediate good seem to require specific policy actions in the optimal allocation. However, the direct effects of oil prices should be allowed to exert their mechanical influence on CPI inflation and wage dynamics through the indexation schemes. We also illustrate that any fine-tuning strategy which tries to counteract the direct effects of oil-price changes in headline inflation would prove counter-productive both in terms to stabilization of underlying inflation and by causing unnecessary volatility in the macroeconomic landscape. Finally, it appears that perfect foresight on future oil price developments allows a more rapid absorption of the steady state decline in purchasing power and real national income in the optimal allocation. Through the various expectation channels, economic agents facilitate the necessary adjustments and optimal monetary policy can still tolerate the direct effects of oil price changes on CPI inflation as well as some degree of underlying inflationary pressures in the view of easing partly the burden of downward real wage shifts. Our monetary policy prescriptions have been derived in a modeling framework where oil-price fluctuations are essentially exogenous to policy actions and where expectations are formed under the rational expectations paradigm. Notably, the extension of such conclusions to imperfect knowledge and weak central bank credibility configurations remain challenging fields for further research. JEL Classification: E4, E5, F4.
    Keywords: Oil prices, Optimal monetary policy, New open economy macroeconomics, Bayesian estimation.
    Date: 2008–11
  12. By: Maurizio Michael Habib (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Jan Stráský (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the choice of an optimal external anchor for oil exporting economies, using optimum currency area criteria and simulations of a simple model of a small open economy pegging to a basket of two currencies. Oil exporting countries - in particular those of the Gulf Cooperation Council - satisfy a number of key optimum currency area criteria to adopt a peg. However, direction of trade and synchronisation of business cycle of oil exporters suggest that there is no single "ideal" external anchor among the major international currencies. Model simulations - parameterised for an oil exporting economy - indicate that a currency basket is generally preferable to a single currency peg, especially when some weight is placed by the policy maker on output stabilisation. Only when inflation becomes the only policy objective and external trade is mostly conducted in one currency that a peg to a single currency becomes optimal. JEL Classification: F31, C30, C51, C61, O24.
    Keywords: oil exporting countries, exchange rate regimes, basket, model simulation.
    Date: 2008–11
  13. By: Lange, Ian
    Abstract: The use of long-term contracts in the procurement of coal for electricity generation is common. The data that is observed from contracts and their transactions are from different levels of the pricing process. Contracts contain the parameters by which all future deliveries are structured, specifying the length of the agreement and acceptable coal attributes. Based on these parameters, a price is later determined for successive coal deliveries and the transaction occurs. This data structure fits well into multi-level models, where each level of the process is empirically estimated. A random intercept model is estimated where the first level is a hedonic model of coal prices. The contract that initiates the delivery is used to connect the two levels of the model. In the second level, contract coefficients from the first level are regressed on contract parameters to determine their impact on how coal is priced. Results find that many contract parameters are statistically significant in the price of coa l.
    Keywords: Tradable Permits; Contracts; Coal; Sulfur Dioxide
    Date: 2008–11
  14. By: Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)
    Abstract: La Russie au vue de l’importance de ses réserves et de sa production a les moyens de devenir un acteur important du marché mondial du gaz. A ce jour, ses exportations restent limitées à l’Europe et à la CEI mais ses ambitions sont clairement de développer ses exportations vers l’Asie et les les Etats Unis. Gazprom, sa société gazière, est l’instrument de cette stratégie qui s’appuie notamment sur une internationalisation de la compagnie.
    Date: 2008–09
  15. By: Kurt Niquidet; Brad Stennes; G.Cornelis van Kooten
    Abstract: In light of the large volumes of pine killed in the Interior forests in British Columbia by the mountain pine beetle, many are keen to employ forest biomass as an energy source. To assess the feasibility of a wood biomass-fired power plant in the BC Interior it is necessary to know both how much physical biomass might be available over the life of a plant, but also its location because transportation costs are likely to be a major operating cost for any facility. To address these issues, we construct a mathematical programming model of fiber flows in the Quesnel Timber Supply Area of BC over a 25-year time horizon. The focus of the model is on minimizing the cost of supplying feedstock throughout space and time. Results indicate that over the life of the project feedstock costs will more than double, increasing from $54.60/BDt ($0.039/kWh) to $116.14/BDt ($0.083/kWh).
    Keywords: forest economics, biomass and bio-energy, forest pests
    JEL: O13 Q23 Q42
    Date: 2008–11
  16. By: Max Iván Aladave Ruiz (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579, Central Bank of Peru - Central Bank of Peru); Cecilia Garcìa-Peñalosa (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579)
    Abstract: The empirical evidence on the determinants of growth across countries has found that growth is lower when natural resources are abundant, corruption widespread and educational attainment low. An extensive literature has examined the way in which these three variables can impact growth, but has tended to address them separately. In this paper we argue that corruption and education are interrelated and that both crucially depend on a country’s endowment of natural resources. The key element is the fact that resources affect the relative returns to investing in human and in political capital, and, through these investments, output levels and growth. In this context, inequality plays a key role both as a determinant of the possible equilibria of the economy and as an outcome of the growth process.
    Keywords: natural resources, corruption, human capital, growth, inequality
    Date: 2008–11–24
  17. By: Zheng, Qiujie; Shumway, C. Richard
    Abstract: Biofuels, as alternative transportation fuels, are now being used globally. Taking advantage of in-state feedstock supply is an efficient way to stimulate in-state biofuel industries and the local economy. This paper uses the mean-variance model of utility maximization to estimate supply equations for major biofuel feedstock crops in Washington. We consider price risk, examine the comparative statics results of the model, and use the results to draw important decision-making implications for Washington farmers who are considering production of biofuel feedstocks. Of three potential feedstock crops, only one shows immediate promise in Washington.
    Keywords: biofuel feedstock, price uncertainty, supply, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2008
  18. By: Jean-Pierre Angelier (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)
    Abstract: Depuis le début du XXe siècle, les contrats pétroliers ont progressivement évolué vers une répartition de la rente plus favorable aux États du Sud, en particulier lorsque la concession a laissé place au contrat de partage de production et lorsque la concurrence s’est installée dans l’industrie pétrolière internationale. Désormais, deuxdimensions peuvent encore améliorer l’efficacité de ces contrats : la transparence dans les flux financiers, et la prise en compte effective de l’environnement.
    Date: 2008–09
  19. By: Emilio Cerdá; Alejandro Caparrós; PaolaOvando
    Abstract: Se destacan los aspectos fundamentales de los principales instrumentos en la política energética europea que afectan a la bioenergía, en el marco de las energías renovables. Se presenta la situación actual en la Unión Europea de cada una de las cuatro fuentes energéticas diferentes correspondientes a la bioenergía: biomasa sólida, residuos sólidos urbanos, biogás y biocarburantes, señalando en cada caso los países más importantes así como las correspondientes medidas que tienen instauradas para su promoción. Por otra parte, se examina la contribución potencial de la expansión de cultivos bioenergéticos al cumplimiento de los objetivos de reducción de emisiones de GEI, de promoción de las energías renovables y de fomento del uso de biocarburantes en la UE, tendiendo en cuenta sólo lo que puede producirse en el territorio de la UE.
    Date: 2008–11

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