nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2008‒05‒24
five papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Imperial College, UK

  1. Why the Climate Change Debate has not Created more Cleantech Funds in Sweden By Hamilton, Ian
  2. International emissions trading in a non-cooperative equilibrium By Bjart J. Holtsmark and Dag Einar Sommervoll
  3. Crude Oil Prices and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Forecasting Exercise By Jesus Crespo Cuaresma; Andreas Breitenfellner
  4. The Behavioural Economics of Climate Change By Brekke, Kjell Arne; Johansson-Stenman, Olof
  5. Les contraintes à la stabilisation du modèle pétrolier russe By Sylvain Rossiaud; Catherine Locatelli

  1. By: Hamilton, Ian (Umeå School of Business)
    Abstract: There are a number of long-term global trends driving the demand for more environmentally friendly technologies. This area, referred as “cleantech”, was coined in the United States during this century and described as “new technology and related business models offering competitive returns for investors and customers while providing solutions to global challenges” ( Cleantech Network, 2007). This and others like it represent broad definitions of technology that can replace old technology with new and improved solutions that offer a reduced impact on the environment. <p> Urbanization and growing world population are strong drivers for technologies that offer solutions in the area of transportation, water supply and treatment, air pollution and energy (Nutek, 2006). As mentioned in reports by Stern and International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) the consequences of over 150 years of mainly western industrialization have resulted in imbalances of the global ecosystem. The unsustainable production and consumption of non-renewable energies have caused a global increase in green house gas emissions and the emerging threat of climate change (Stern, 2006). The depletion of energy resources calls for a need to develop even more effective ways of combustion of fossil fuels or renewable energies. The uncertainty of global fossil fuel supply is causing non-renewable energy price to move up. This has a destabilizing effect on national security as governments grow dependent on oil & natural gas imports (Nutek, 2006). <p> For these reasons there are strong incentives for investors to receive attractive returns for investments in cleantech industries. So far the interest from the investment community has been by far greater in the United States than in Europe and especially Scandinavia. This by itself is remarkable as US is many times portrayed as unwilling to take on and bare responsibility for its contribution towards climate change. In spite global trends driving demand for cleantech companies this paper looks at reasons why Swedish fund managers have not until now launched a few products for private investors on the Swedish fund market.
    Keywords: No; Keywords
    Date: 2007–11–20
  2. By: Bjart J. Holtsmark and Dag Einar Sommervoll (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Linkage of different countries’ domestic permit markets for pollution rights into a single international market alters governments’ incentives, and may trigger adjustments of the number of allocated permits. First, this work finds that in a non-cooperative equilibrium, international emissions trading is likely to increase the total emissions. Second, although trading will give a more efficient cross-country allocation of emissions, efficiency may nevertheless fall, because an already inefficiently low abatement level is likely to be further reduced. Third, we find that large countries are likely to experience losses from linking their permit markets to the permit markets of smaller countries.
    Keywords: Emissions trading; efficiency; non-cooperative games
    JEL: C72 F53 Q54
    Date: 2008–05
  3. By: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma; Andreas Breitenfellner
    Abstract: If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has price setting capacity, (b) a high share of OPEC imports comes from the euro area and (c) alternatives to oil invoicing in US dollar are costly. We give evidence that using information on the US dollar/euro exchange rate (and its determinants) improves oil price forecasts significantly. We discuss possible implications that these results might suggest with regard to the stabilization of oil prices or the adjustment of global imbalances.
    Keywords: oil price, exchange rate, forecasting, multivariate time series models.
    JEL: Q43 F31 C53
  4. By: Brekke, Kjell Arne (Department of Economics, University of Oslo); Johansson-Stenman, Olof (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to bring some central insights from behavioural economics into the economics of climate change. In particular, it discusses (i) implications of prospect theory, the equity premium puzzle and time inconsistent preferences in the choice of discount rate used in climate change cost assessments, and (ii) the implications of various kinds of social preferences for the outcome of climate negotiations. Several reasons are presented for why it appears advisable to choose a substantially lower social discount rate than the average return on investments. It also seems likely that taking social preferences into account increases the possibilities of obtaining international agreements, compared to the standard model. However, there are also effects going in the opposite direction, and the importance of sanctions is emphasised.<p>
    Keywords: Behavioural economics; prospect theory; equity premium puzzle; social preferences; climate negotiations.
    JEL: D63 Q54
    Date: 2008–05–19
  5. By: Sylvain Rossiaud (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)
    Abstract: Le ralentissement de la croissance de la production pétrolière russe, observé depuis 2005, relance le débat relatif aux perspectives de production à moyen/long terme du 2ème producteur mondial de pétrole. Cette évolution s'explique par les caractéristiques technico-économiques du secteur pétrolier russe (niveau des ressources, rythme de déplétion des gisements...) mais également par les incertitudes relatives au cadre institutionnel et organisationnel défini par l’Etat russe pour réguler les activités des compagnies pétrolières. Le modèle organisationnel et le cadre institutionnel de l'industrie pétrolière russe, défini s au travers de la privatisation des années 1990, sont loin d’être stabilisés. Aujourd’hui on assiste à un accroissement du rôle des compagnies à capitaux majoritairement publics, Rosneft et Gazprom, dans les opérations d’exploration-production. Il s’agit ici d’étudier les tenants et les aboutissants de la reprise en mains de l’industrie pétrolière par l’Etat russe ainsi que la possibilité de voir se stabiliser, et si oui selon quelles modalités, le cadre institutionnel au sein duquel les opérateurs évoluent.
    Date: 2008–05

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