|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Pollitt, M. |
| Abstract: | The question this paper addresses is: what is the evidence for the superiority of the ownership unbundled transmission models (i.e. UK or Nord Pool hybrid) over other models? We assess the theoretical costs and benefits of ownership unbundling and judge these to be generally positive, though these may be potentially offset by the actual reorganisation costs of the ownership unbundling process. Next, we assess the empirical evidence. This is in two forms – econometric evidence from samples of countries and case studies of reforms in particular jurisdictions. The econometric evidence is weak due to problems with simultaneity of reform steps and a lack of studies, but the case study evidence is compelling. We conclude with a discussion of of the issues faced by countries considering implementing ownership unbundling. We conclude that evidence seems to be that ownership unbundling of transmission is a key part of energy market reform in the most successful reform jurisdictions. Key words: electricity reform, gas reform, ownership unbundling, transmission. |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:0737&r=ene |
| By: | Yu, W.; Jamasb, T.; Pollitt, M. |
| Abstract: | Efficiency analysis of electricity distribution networks is often limited to technical or cost efficiency measures. However, some important non-tradable aspects of their service such as quality of service and network energy losses are generally not part of the analysis. A regulatory concern is that technical efficiency can be achieved at the expense of these measures as well as allocative efficiency. Valuation of service quality for inclusion in regulatory models is particularly difficult. This paper presents an approach to measure and incorporate service quality and energy losses in analysis of technical and allocative efficiency of the utilities. We calculate technical and allocative efficiency of the 14 distribution networks in the UK between 1990/91 and 2003/04 using the Data Envelopment Analysis technique. We find that efficiency measures improved during the first (1990/91-1994/95) and second (1995/96-1999/00) distribution price control reviews and exhibited a slight decline during the third (2000/01-2004/05) review period. We find relatively low allocative efficiency - i.e. a mismatch in allocating resources among expenditures, service quality, and energy losses. The results suggest that the utilities may not be sufficiently incentivised to achieve socially optimal input bundles under the current incentive scheme. Key words: Data Envelopment Analysis, electricity, quality of service, willingness-to-pay |
| JEL: | L15 L51 L94 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:0736&r=ene |
| By: | Astrid Cullmann; Christian von Hirschhausen |
| Abstract: | In this paper we test the hypothesis that the economic transition toward a market economy increases the efficiency of firms. We study 32 Polish electricity distribution companies between 1997-2002, by applying common benchmarking methods to the panel: the nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA), the free disposal hull (FDH), and, as a parametric approach, the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). We then measure and decompose productivity change with Malmquist indices. We find that the technical efficiency of the companies has indeed increased during the transition, while allocative efficiency has deteriorated. We also find significantly increasing returns to scale, suggesting that the regulatory authority should allow companies to merge into larger units. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency analysis, electricity distribution, transition, econometric methods, Poland, DEA, SFA |
| JEL: | P31 L51 L43 C1 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp716&r=ene |
| By: | M. Marzo; P. Zagaglia |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:599&r=ene |
| By: | Giovanni Goldoni (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | Ad oltre dieci anni dalla prima direttiva europea e mentre il mercato finale è arrivato alla sua apertura totale il bilancio delle liberalizzazioni sul piatto della concorrenza e della regolamentazione non è esaltante. Le Autorità incaricate di promuovere la concorrenza nei momenti cruciali non hanno preso le decisioni più adatte a contrastare le strategie degli incumbent, lasciando che il loro potere di mercato si rafforzasse. Le Autorità che dovevano mettere a punto la regolamentazione, tecnica ed economica, delle reti non hanno saputo conciliare perfettamente l’orientamento al mercato delle condizioni di accesso alle reti con il mantenimento in sicurezza dei sistemi di trasporto. Non avendo tratto insegnamenti dalle riforme inglesi, il confronto ex-post può solo dare risalto ai difetti di consistency ed ai problemi di concorrenza sul lato dell’offerta che affliggono in modo ormai cronico la regolazione di questi mercati in Europa e in Italia. |
| Keywords: | Concorrenza, strategie incumbent, analisi antitrust, regolamentazione, congestione reti, sicurezza forniture. |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:40&r=ene |
| By: | Georg Zachmann |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to develop a model to determine the price formation of wholesale electricity markets. For that purpose, we model wholesale electricity prices depending on the prices of fuels (coal and natural gas) and of CO2 emission allowances using a Markov Switching Regression. We apply the model to wholesale electricity prices in the UK and in Germany. While British electricity prices are quite well explained by short-run cost factors, we find a decoupling between electricity prices and fuel costs in Germany. This may be evidence that the German electricity generation sector does not work competitively. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices, Markov Switching Models |
| JEL: | L94 C22 D43 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp714&r=ene |
| By: | M. Marzo; P. Zagaglia |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:595&r=ene |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Enrica de Cian (FEEM; Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Elisa Lanzi (FEEM) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical study of energy demand, in which demand for a series of energy goods (Gas, Oil Products, Coal, Electricity) is expressed as a function of various factors, including temperature. Parameter values are estimated econometrically, using a dynamic panel data approach. Unlike previous studies in this field, the data sample has a global coverage, and special emphasis is given to the dynamic nature of demand, as well as to interactions between income levels and sensitivity to temperature variations. These features make the model results especially valuable in the analysis of climate change impacts. Results are interpreted in terms of derived demand for heating and cooling. Non-linearities and discontinuities emerge, making necessary to distinguish between different countries, seasons, and energy sources. Short- and long-run temperature elasticities of demand are estimated. |
| Keywords: | Advertising, Media Industries, Broadcasting, Price Discrimination, Television, Radio, Differentiation.. |
| JEL: | L82 M37 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:06_07&r=ene |
| By: | Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S.J Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Abstract: | We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the recent and proposed changes in the Air Passenger Duty (APD) of the United Kingdom. We find that the recent doubling of the APD has the perverse effect of increasing carbon dioxide emissions, albeit only slightly, because it reduces the relative price difference between near and far holidays. Tourist arrivals in the UK would fall slightly. Tourist arrivals from the UK would fall in the countries near to the UK, and this drop would be only partly offset by displaced tourists from the UK. Tourist numbers in countries far from the UK would increase. The proposal of the Conservative Party to exempt the first 2,000 miles (for UK residents) would decrease emissions by roughly the same amount as abolishing the APD altogether – but tourist arrivals in the UK would not rise. These results are reversed if we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes. If the same revenue were raised with a carbon tax rather than a boarding tax, emissions would fall with higher taxes. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, carbon dioxide emissions, boarding tax, United Kingdom |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp187&r=ene |
| By: | Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S.J Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Abstract: | We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the EU-US Open Skies agreement that is to take effect in March 2008. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between transatlantic carriers and consequently falls in the cost of flights, therefore we look at the change in visitor numbers from the US into the EU and corresponding CO2 emissions. We find that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by approximately 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. This increase in passenger numbers does not however result in a corresponding rise in emissions as arrivals into other countries from the US fall by a comparable amount. The number of tourist arrivals from the US to countries outside of the EU will fall and overall emissions would then increase by a maximum of 0.7%. If we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes these effects are strengthened and US passengers switch from domestic trips to foreign destinations as airfares converge. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, open skies agreement, carbon dioxide emissions |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp191&r=ene |
| By: | Valentina Bosetti (FEEM); Carlo Carraro (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Ca’ Foscari); Emanuele Massetti (FEEM; FEEM) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy technical change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption capacity is also endogenous in the model. The basic questions are as follows. Do knowledge spillovers enhance energy technological innovation in different regions of the world? Does the speed of innovation increase? Or do free-riding incentives prevail and international spillovers crowd out domestic R&D efforts? What is the role of domestic absorption capacity and of policies designed to enhance it? The new specification of the WITCH model presented in this paper enables us to answer these questions. Our analysis shows that international knowledge spillovers tend to increase free-riding incentives and decrease the investments in energy R&D. We also analyze the implication of a policy mix in which climate policy is combined with a technology policy designed to enhance absorption capacity in developing countries. Significant positive impacts on the costs of stabilising GHG concentrations are singled out. |
| Keywords: | Climate Policy, Energy R&D, International R&D Spillovers, Stabilization |
| JEL: | H0 H2 H3 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:11_07&r=ene |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Francesco Bosello (Department of Economics, University of Milan); Enrica De Cian (Scuola di Studi Avanzati, University of Venice Ca'Foscari) |
| Abstract: | Future energy demand will be affected by changes in prices and income, but also by other factors, like temperature levels. This paper draws upon an econometric study, disentangling the contribution of temperature in the determination of the annual regional demand for energy goods. Combining estimates of temperature elasticities with scenarios of future climate change, it is possible to assess variations in energy demand induced (directly) by the global warming. We use this information to simulate a change in the demand structure of households in a CGE model of the world economy, in a set of assessment exercises. The changing demand structure triggers a structural adjustment process, influencing trade flows, regional competitiveness of industries and regions, and welfare. We also consider the possible existence of imperfect competition in the energy markets, analyzing the impact of changes in energy demand with an alternative model version, in which energy industries are modeled as Cournot oligopolies. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Damage Function, Integrated Assessment, General Equilibrium. |
| JEL: | C68 D58 F18 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:09_07&r=ene |
| By: | John Bryant (Vocat International) |
| Abstract: | An analysis of possible restrictions on economic development posed by climate change and resource factors. The paper examines international trends over several decades of GDP, capital stock, population and energy demand and intensity, and the extent to which these trends may need to change to meet restrictions on CO2 emissions arising from consumption of fossil fuels. |
| Keywords: | Thermodynamics, economics, Le Chatelier, energy, climate change, finite world, limits to growth |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:voc:wpaper:ee2007&r=ene |
| By: | Buys, Piet; Deichmann, Uwe; Meisner, Craig; Ton-That, Thao; Wheeler, David |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive geo-referenced database of indicators relating to global change and energy, the paper assesses countries ' likely attitudes with respect to international treaties that regulate carbon emissions. The authors distinguish between source and impact vulnerability and classify countries according to these dimensions. The findings show clear differences in the factors that determine likely negotiating positions. This analysis and the resulting detailed, country level information help to explain the incentives required to make the establishment of such agreements more likely. |
| Keywords: | Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Climate Change,Transport and Environment |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4300&r=ene |
| By: | Lecocq, Franck; Shalizi, Zmarak |
| Abstract: | Although climate policies have been so far mostly focused on mitigation, adaptation to climate change is a growing concern in developed and developing countries. This paper discusses how adaptation fits into the global climate strategy, at the global and national levels. To do so, a partial equilibrium optimization model of climate policies-which includ es mitigation, proactive adaptation (ex ante), and reactive adaptation (ex post)-is solved without and with uncertainty. Mitigation, proactive adaptation, and reactive adaptation are found to be generally jointly determined. Uncertainty on the location of damages reduces the benefits of " targeted " proactive adaptation with regard to mitigation and reactive adaptation. However, no single country controls global mitigation policies, and budget constraints might make it difficult for developing countries to finance reactive adaptation, especially if climate shocks affect the fiscal base. Rainy-day funds are identified as a supplemental instrument that can alleviate future budget constraints while avoiding the risk of misallocating resources when the location of damages is uncertain. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics & Policies,Economic Theory & Research,Educational Sciences,Disability,Social Inclusion & Institutions |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4299&r=ene |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Francesco Bosello (Department of Economics, University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | A Climate Change Damage Function (CCDF) is a reduced form relationship linking macroeconomic aggregates (e.g., potential GDP) to climate indicators (e.g., average temperature levels). This function is used in a variety of studies about climate change impacts and policy analysis. However, despite the fact that this function is key in determining results in many integrated assessment models, it is not typically calibrated in a consistent and rigorous way. This paper presents a novel approach, in which several different impacts of climate change are first assessed by means of a full-fledged computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, then results are interpolated to get a simple relationship of the CCDF type. The estimated CCDF is compared with other popular functions used in the literature, to highlight the possible implications associated with the alternative adoption of this functional relationship. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Damage Function, Integrated Assessment, General Equilibrium. |
| JEL: | C68 D58 F18 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:08_07&r=ene |
| By: | Green, Kesten C.; Armstrong, J. Scott |
| Abstract: | In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no.” To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, (3) the effects of alternative policies, and (4) whether the best policy would be successfully implemented. Proper forecasts of all four are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are easily available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder. |
| Keywords: | accuracy; audit; climate change; evaluation; expert judgment; mathematical models; public policy |
| JEL: | C53 H23 H21 |
| Date: | 2007–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4361&r=ene |
| By: | Eid, Helmy M.; El-Marsafawy, Samia M.; Ouda, Samiha A. |
| Abstract: | This study employed the Ricardian approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and hydrological variables to determine which factors influence the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20 governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model was applied, in addition to three other models, each representing an adaptation option that could be used to reduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A further adaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on the farm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change. Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios (using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models) were considered. The results from the two climate change scenarios showed that high temperatures will constrain agricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technology are therefore the recommended adaptation options. However, warming may also affect water resources and that would pose another problem for agricultural production. A policy should be developed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: crop management, water management, and land management. The favored option for adapting to increased temperatures is irrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates to avoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortages in rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water use efficiency and early maturing varieties. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Water Supply a nd Sanitation Governance and Institutions |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4293&r=ene |
| By: | Jain, Suman |
| Abstract: | This report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop production in this period depends solely on rains. Considering crop progression in three stages-germination, growing, and maturing, which requi re different amounts of water and temperature-the climate variables included in the model are long-term averages of the temperature and wetness index for the periods November to December, January to February, and March to April. Assuming a nonlinear relationship of farm revenue with the climate variables, quadratic terms for climate variables were also included in the model. The results indicate that most socioeconomic variables are not significant, whereas some climate variables and the corresponding quadratic variables are significant in the model. Further findings are that an increase in the November-December mean temperature and a decrease in the January-February mean rainfall have negative impacts on net farm revenue, whereas an increase in the January-February mean temperature and mean annual runoff has a positive impact. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4291&r=ene |
| By: | Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the choice of crops is affected by climate in Africa. Using a multinomial logit model, the paper regresses crop choice on climate, soils, and other factors. The model is estimated using a sample of more than 7,000 farmers across 11 countries in Africa. The study finds that crop choice is very climate sensitive. For example, farmers select sorghum and maize-millet in the cooler regions of Africa; maize-beans, maize-groundnut, and maize in moderately warm regions ' and cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, and millet-groundnut in hot regions. Further, farmers choose sorghum, and millet-groundnut when conditions are dry; cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, maize-millet, and maize when medium wet; and maize-beans and maize-groundnut when wet. As temperatures warm, farmers will shift toward more heat tolerant cro ps. Depending on whether precipitation increases or decreases, farmers will also shift toward drought tolerant or water loving crops, respectively. There are several policy relevant conclusions to draw from this study. First, farmers will adapt to climate change by switching crops. Second, global warming impact studies cannot assume crop choice is exogenous. Third, this study only examines choices across current crops. Future farmers may well have more choices. There is an important role for agronomic research in developing new varieties more suited for higher temperatures. Future farmers may have even better adaptation alternatives with an expanded set of crop choices specifically targeted at higher temperatures. |
| Keywords: | Crops & Crop Management Systems,Climate Change,Agriculture & Farming Systems,Renewable Energy,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4307&r=ene |
| By: | Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Crops & Crop Management Systems |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4305&r=ene |
| By: | Maddison, David; Manley, Marita; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers ' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics & Policies,Climate Change,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4306&r=ene |
| By: | Maddison, David |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to determine the ability of farmers in Africa to detect climate change, and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. The paper also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it. The study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 African countries. The survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe that temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined. Those with the greatest experience of farming are more likely to notice climate change. Further, neighboring farmers tell a consistent story. There are important differences in the propensity of farmers living in different locations to adapt and there may be institutional impediments to adaptation in some countries. Although large numbers of farmers perceive no barriers to adaptation, those that do perceive them tend to cite their poverty and inability to borrow. Few if any farmers mentioned lack of appropriate seed, security of tenure, or market accessibility as problems. Those farmers who perceive climate change but fail to respond may require particular incentives or assistance to do what is ultimately in their own best interests. Although experienced farmers are more likely to perceive climate change, it is educated farmers who are more likely to respond by making at least one adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Rural Poverty Reduction,Environmental Economics & Policies,Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4308&r=ene |
| By: | Strzepek, Kenneth; McCluskey, Alyssa |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5o latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCMbased clima te change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa. |
| Keywords: | Wetlands,Climate Change,Water Supply and Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4290&r=ene |
| By: | Lotsch, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals s ignificant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4289&r=ene |