nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2007‒05‒12
twenty-two papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Imperial College, UK

  1. The Economy-wide Impact of Fuel Oil, Gas and Electricity Pricing and Subsidy Policies as well as Their Consumption Improvement Efficiency in Indonesia By Djoni Hartono; Budy P. Resosudarmo
  2. The Economy-wide Impact of Controlling Energy Consumption in Indonesia: An Analysis Using a Social Accounting Matrix Framework By Djoni Hartono; Budy P. Resosudarmo
  3. Equity Weighting and the Marginal Damage Costs of Climate Change By David Anthoff; Cameron Hepburn; Richard S.J. Tol
  4. How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? By Klaus Keller; Louise I. Miltich; Alexander Robinson; Richard S.J. Tol
  5. Carbon Leakage with International Technology Spillovers By Reyer Gerlagh; Onno Kuik
  6. The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism By Richard S.J. Tol
  7. An Integrated CVaR and Real Options Approach to Investments in the Energy Sector By Fortin, Ines; Fuss, Sabine; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael; Szolgayova, Jana
  8. Group Rewards and Individual Sanctions in Environmental Policy By Bouwe R. Dijkstra; Dirk T.G. Rübbelke
  10. Are two-part tariffs efficient when consumers plan ahead?: An empirical study By Laura Fernàndez-Villadangos
  11. "Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Activity: A Putty-Clay Perspective" By David R. Stockman
  12. Impact of High Crop Prices on Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program By Secchi, Silvia; Babcock, Bruce A.
  13. Using a Hedonic Model of Solar Radiation to Assess the Economic Effect of Climate Change: The Case of Mosel Valley Vineyards By Orley C. Ashenfelter; Karl Storchmann
  14. Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy; Interaction Between Environmental Taxes and Innovation Externalities By Reyer Gerlagh; Snorre Kverndokk; Knut Einar Rosendahl
  15. Switching to a sustainable efficient extraction path By Bazhanov, Andrei
  16. Regulations of the Argentine Electrical Market: Modifications and consequences towards the future of the sector. By Leandro, Cerutti
  17. Why has Core Inflation Remained so Muted in the Face of the Oil Shock? By Paul van den Noord; Christophe André
  18. Environmental Policy and Incentives to Invest in Advanced Abatement Technology if Arrival of Future Technology is Uncertain - Extended Version By von Döllen, Andreas; Requate, Till
  19. Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Macro–Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution By Dorothée Boccanfuso; Antonio Estache; Luc Savard
  20. Certificats noirs, verts et blancs: Effets croisés et impacts potentiels dans les marchés de l’électricité By Joseph DOUCET; Jacques PERCEBOIS
  21. The 1990 Clean Air Act and the Implicit Price of Sulfur in Coal By Allen Bellas; Ian Lange
  22. La dépollution dans les pays en transition est-elle volontaire ? Le cas des émissions industrielles de carbone By Natalia Zugravu; Katrin Millock; Gérard Duchêne

  1. By: Djoni Hartono (Department of Economics, University of Indonesia); Budy P. Resosudarmo (Australian National University)
    Abstract: In Indonesia, the government determines the domestic prices of energy; namely fuel oil, such as gasoline, automotive diesel oil (ADO) and kerosene, gas and electricity. In response to the weakening of rupiah during the 1997/1998 economic crisis and the increasing of the world price of crude oil, the government tends to increase the energy subsidy on domestic prices of fuel oil, gas and electricity, rather than letting these domestic prices follows the world prices of fuel oil, gas and electricity. Currently domestic prices of fuel oil, such as gasoline, automotive diesel oil, kerosene as well as gas and electricity are significantly lower than the world prices of those commodities. Meanwhile government subsidy for fuel oil, gas and electricity has reached approximately 30 per cent of total government expenditure. There have been suggestions that the government should eliminate this subsidy letting the prices of fuel oil, gas and electricity equal to the world prices, since, among others, energy subsidy has foregone government’s opportunities to spend more on development expenditures that would improve the country’s growth rate. On the other hand various groups keep pressing the government to keep the prices of fuel oil, gas and electricity; i.e. do not reduce the energy subsidy, since the poor could not afford higher prices of fuel oil, gas and electricity.
    Keywords: fuel subsidy, CGE, Indonesia
    JEL: D30 D50
    Date: 2006–12
  2. By: Djoni Hartono (Department of Economics, University of Indonesia); Budy P. Resosudarmo (Australian National University)
    Abstract: Escalating oil prices and the need to control carbon emissions sound the alarm for Indonesia to reduce or be more efficient in its energy use. To create an incentive for society to be more energy efficient, the government needs to reduce the current energy subsidy, which, in any case, has imposed a tremendous fiscal burden on the country. This paper aims to analyse the impact on the economy of energy policies aiming to reduce and to improve the efficiency of energy use, particularly on the income of various household groups. This paper will, first, construct a Social Accounting Matrix for Indonesia with detailed energy sectors and, second, utilise various multiplier analyses to observe and understand the impact of these energy policies.
    Keywords: Social Accounting Matrix, Energy, Indonesia
    JEL: Q4
    Date: 2007–01
  3. By: David Anthoff (FNU, ZMK); Cameron Hepburn (University of Oxford); Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute)
    Abstract: Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. The assumed scenario is important too, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. Because of this, variations in the assumed inequity aversion have little effect on the marginal damage cost in some scenarios, and a large effect in other scenarios.
    Keywords: Marginal Damage Costs, Climate Change, Equity
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2007–04
  4. By: Klaus Keller (Penn State University Park); Louise I. Miltich (Penn State University Park); Alexander Robinson (Penn State University Park); Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute)
    Abstract: Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.
    Keywords: Carbon Dioxide, Emissions, Scenarios, Data Assimilation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2007–04
  5. By: Reyer Gerlagh (University of Manchester); Onno Kuik (Vrije Universiteit)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the effect of international technology spillovers on carbon leakage. We first develop and analyse two simple competing models for carbon leakage. The first model represents the pollution haven hypothesis. It focuses on the international competition between firms that produce energy-intensive goods. The second model highlights the role of a globally integrated carbon-energy market. We calculate formulas for the leakage rates in both models and, through meta-analysis, show that the second model captures best the major mechanisms reported in the CGE literature on carbon leakage. We extend this model with endogenous energy-saving technology and international technology spillovers. This feature is shown to decrease carbon leakage. We build-in the endogenous energy-saving technology in a large CGE model and verify that the results from the formal model carry over. Carbon leakage becomes negative for moderate levels of international technology spillover.
    Keywords: arbon-Leakage, Climate Policy, Induced Technological Change; Trade and Environment
    JEL: F18 O39 Q25 Q4
    Date: 2007–03
  6. By: Richard S.J. Tol (ESRI)
    Abstract: A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel. The effect of the tax on travel behaviour is small: a global $1000/tC would change travel behaviour to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%. This is because the imposed tax is probably small relative to the air fare. A $1000/tC tax would less than double air fares, and have a smaller impact on the total cost of the holiday. In addition, the price elasticity is low. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights, because of high emissions, and short-haul flights, because of the emission during take-off and landing. Medium distance flights would be affected least. This implies that tourist destinations that rely heavily on short-haul flights (that is, islands near continents, such as Ireland) or on intercontinental flights (e.g., Africa) will see a decline in international tourism numbers, while other destinations may see international arrivals rise. If the tax is only applied to the European Union, EU tourists would stay closer to home so that EU tourism would grow at the expense of other destinations. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the qualitative insights are robust. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would have little effect on international tourism, and little effect on emissions.
    Keywords: International Tourism, Tax, Carbon Dioxide, Aviation
    JEL: L83 L93 Q54
    Date: 2007–03
  7. By: Fortin, Ines (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria); Fuss, Sabine (University of Maastricht/UNU-Merit, Maastricht, The Netherlands); Hlouskova, Jaroslava (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria); Khabarov, Nikolay (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria); Obersteiner, Michael (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria); Szolgayova, Jana (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to combine a real options framework with portfolio optimization techniques and to apply this new framework to investments in the electricity sector. In particular, a real options model is used to assess the adoption decision of particular technologies under uncertainty. These technologies are coal-fired power plants, biomassfired power plants and onshore wind mills, and they are representative of technologies based on fossil fuels, biomass and renewables, respectively. The return distributions resulting from this analysis are then used as an input to a portfolio optimization, where the measure of risk is the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).
    Keywords: Portfolio optimization, CVaR, climate change policy, uncertainty, real options, electricity, investments
    JEL: C61 D81 D92 G11 Q4 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2007–05
  8. By: Bouwe R. Dijkstra (University of Nottingham); Dirk T.G. Rübbelke (Chemnitz University of Technology)
    Abstract: We examine an incentive scheme for a group of agents, where all agents are rewarded if the group meets its target. If the group does not meet its target, only the agents that meet their individual target are rewarded. In environmental policy, the EU burden sharing agreement and the UK Climate Change Agreements feature this incentive scheme. There is only a difference in outcome between group and individual rewards if emissions are stochastic. Group rewards generally lead to higher expected emissions than individual rewards. The attraction of the group reward scheme may lie in its fairness and its tough-looking targets.
    Keywords: Team Incentive Scheme, Stochastic Pollution, UK Climate Change Agreements
    JEL: Q54 Q58
    Date: 2007–04
  9. By: Karen Mayor; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the EU-US Open Skies agreement that is to take effect in March 2008. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between transatlantic carriers and consequently falls in the cost of flights, therefore we look at the change in visitor numbers from the US into the EU and corresponding CO2 emissions. We find that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by approximately 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. This increase in passenger numbers does not however result in a corresponding rise in emissions as arrivals into other countries from the US fall by a comparable amount. The number of tourist arrivals from the US to countries outside of the EU will fall and overall emissions would then increase by a maximum of 0.7%. If we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes these effects are strengthened and US passengers switch from domestic trips to foreign destinations as airfares converge.
    Keywords: International tourism, open skies agreement, carbon dioxide emissions
    JEL: L83 L93 Q54
    Date: 2007–04
  10. By: Laura Fernàndez-Villadangos (Grup de Recerca en Polítiques Públiques i Regulació Económiques (GPRE), Institut de Recerca d'Economia Aplicada (IREA), Departament de Política Econòmica i EEM, Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: During the last two decades there has been an increase in using dynamic tariffs for billing household electricity consumption. This has questioned the suitability of traditional pricing schemes, such as two-part tariffs, since they contribute to create marked peak and offpeak demands. The aim of this paper is to assess if two-part tariffs are an efficient pricing scheme using Spanish household electricity microdata. An ordered probit model with instrumental variables on the determinants of power level choice and non-paramentric spline regressions on the electricity price distribution will allow us to distinguish between the tariff structure choice and the simultaneous demand decisions. We conclude that electricity consumption and dwellings’ and individuals’ characteristics are key determinants of the fixed charge paid by Spanish households Finally, the results point to the inefficiency of the two-part tariff as those consumers who consume more electricity pay a lower price than the others.
    Keywords: Regulation, electricity, consumer behavior: empirical analysis.
    JEL: L94 Q41 D12
    Date: 2006–10
  11. By: David R. Stockman (Department of Economics,University of Delaware)
    Abstract: I extend the Atkeson and Kehoe (1999) putty-clay model to include elastic labor supply and more general forms of technology to explore the impact of oil shocks on the macroeconomy. In particular, I am interested in (1) how this extension affects their results with regard to permanent changes in the price of oil, (2) a comparison of the business cycle properties of the putty-putty and putty-clay models, and (3) whether or not this extended putty-clay model is subject to the Rotemberg and Woodford (1996) critique of the standard perfectly competitive real business cycle model with energy. Results are reported for a wide range of parameter values illustrating that (1) contrary to the Atkeson-Kehoe result, the response of output and capital to permanent changes in the price of oil is identical in both the putty-putty and putty-clay models and is sensitive to the elasticity of substitution between capital services and labor, (2) there are stark differences in several business cycle features, namely the volatility of energy use and the correlations of output with consumption, investment and hours, and (3) the Rotemberg-Woodford critique applies to the putty-clay model revealing both amplification and timing problems.
    Keywords: energy, putty-clay, dynamic general equilbrium
    JEL: E32 Q43
    Date: 2006
  12. By: Secchi, Silvia; Babcock, Bruce A.
    Abstract: Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.
    Keywords: agricultural markets, Conservation Reserve Program, environmental quality.
    Date: 2007–05–03
  13. By: Orley C. Ashenfelter (Princeton University); Karl Storchmann (Whitman College)
    Abstract: In this paper we provide a simple, credible method for assessing the effects of climate change on the quality of agricultural land and then apply this method using a rich set of data on the vineyards of the Mosel Valley in Germany. The basic idea is to use a simple model of solar radiation to measure the amount of energy collected by a vineyard, and then to establish the econometric relation between energy and vineyard quality. Coupling this hedonic function with the elementary physics of heat and energy permits a straightforward calculation of the impact of any climate change on vineyard quality (and prices). We show that the variability in vineyard quality in this region is due primarily to the extent to which each vineyard is able to capture radiant solar energy, so that these data provide a particularly credible “experiment” for identifying and measuring the appropriate hedonic equation. Our empirical results indicate that the vineyards of the Mosel Valley will increase in value under a scenario of global warming, and perhaps by a considerable amount. Vineyard and grape prices increase more than proportionally with greater ripeness, so that we estimate a 3°C increase in temperature would more than double the value of this vineyard area, while a 1°C increase would increase prices by about 20 percent.
    Date: 2006–07
  14. By: Reyer Gerlagh (University of Manchester); Snorre Kverndokk (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Knut Einar Rosendahl (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) and learning by doing (LbD) on the timing of environmental policy. We develop two models, the first with R&D and the second with LbD. We study the interaction between environmental taxes and innovation externalities in a dynamic economy and prove policy equivalence between the second-best R&D and the LbD model. Our analysis shows that the difference found in the literature between optimal environmental policy in R&D and LbD models can partly be traced back to the set of policy instruments available, rather than being directly linked to the source of technological innovation. Arguments for early action in LbD models carry over to a second-best R&D setting. We show that environmental taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when an abatement industry is developing. We illustrate our analysis through numerical simulations on climate change policy.
    Keywords: Environmental Policy, Technological Change, Research and Development, Learning by Doing
    JEL: H21 O30 Q42
    Date: 2007–04
  15. By: Bazhanov, Andrei
    Abstract: The economy depends on the essential nonrenewable resource and the path of extraction is nondecreasing and inefficient. At some point the government gradually switches to a sustainable (in sense of nondecreasing consumption over time) pattern of the resource use. Technical restrictions do not allow to switch to the efficient extraction instantly. Transition curves calibrated to the current pattern of world oil production are used as the extraction paths in the "intermediate" period. However, there is no solution in finite time for the "smooth" switching from the optimal "transition" to the optimal efficient path, constructed with respect to the same welfare criterion. We analyze numerically two approaches for the approximate solution: "epsilon-smooth" switching and "epsilon-optimal" transition curve with smooth switching. Both cases give the unexpected result: the consumption path along the "inefficient" transition curve is always superior to the constant which we obtain after switching to the "efficient" Hartwick's curve. The result implies that for the correct switching to the efficient curve in finite time the saving rule must be adjusted. We estimate the importance of following the efficient path by comparing the consumption along the plausible transition path and the efficient pattern of the resource use. For simplicity we use in our examples the constant per capita consumption as a welfare criterion and the Hartwick rule as the benchmark of investment rule.
    Keywords: Essential nonrenewable resource; Sustainable extraction; Hartwick rule; Transition to efficient path
    JEL: Q38 Q32
    Date: 2007–04–20
  16. By: Leandro, Cerutti
    Abstract: To beginning of 2002, the Argentine government declares the emergency economic, financier, exchange and social by means of sanction ofe Law N. 25.561 and respect to do makes abandonment of the convertibility of the local currency American, facing strong devaluation of weight. As of this moment the State actively took part in readaption of the electric system to the new social economic conditions a new norm and concrete actions. In this context the Secretary of Energy implement an important number of Resolutions that affected of different ways from the effective regulatory frame and with important effects on the associated bottoms to maintain the correct operation of Wholesale Market. The objective of this work is to analyze the impact on the sector of such resolutions, being examined the main modifications that were introduced within the framework regulatory of the electric market from devaluation in the bottoms destined to facilitate the operating one of the market, and in the structure behavior that to the sector prior to a 2002, mainly in the referred thing to the sector of generation previous to the crisis. With respect to this segment is the prices that receive the generators, adopted post-devaluaci?que has granted in order to give them continuity to the service. The perspective of the sector in the long term considering the present problems of supplying of gas and before changes in the macroeconomics conditions. In which investigation talks about to the approach of this? Have to be divided of a putting for he caracteristics of the operation of the Argentine system within the new regulatory organizational institucional and, to the light of a paradigm sistem in which the market is in relation with other systems of provision of energy. East paradigm has been chosen because in Argentina the elmarket presents/displays forts entailments with the market gas?ro, being the gas I ooze m?importante in the generation. Therefore, the problems derived from the gas shortage directly affect evolution of electric market.
    Keywords: Argentina; mercado electrico; energia; regulacion; nuevo mercado electrico; nuevo marco regulatorio del sector energetico.
    JEL: L52 L51
    Date: 2006–01–01
  17. By: Paul van den Noord; Christophe André
    Abstract: To help policymakers form a judgment on inflation risks and the required monetary policy stance the OECD has developed an analytical framework based on a set of 'eclectic' Phillips curves estimated for the two largest OECD economies, the United States and the euro area, which is presented in this paper. This framework is used in the preparation of the Economic Outlook to explain recent developments in core inflation, excluding food and energy, based on developments in measures of economic slack (the output gap), spill-over effects from energy prices onto core inflation and lagged responses to past inflation via expectations formation. The fact that the knock-on effects from energy shocks onto core inflation appear small in comparison with the 1970s can be explained by the secular fall in energy intensity, a low and stable rate of 'mean inflation' -- to which observed inflation reverts after a shock has worked its way through -- and persistent slack in the aftermath of the bursting of the dotcom bubble. <P>Pourquoi l?inflation sous-jacente est elle restée si modérée en dépit du choc pétrolier ? <BR>Afin d'aider les décideurs politiques à apprécier les risques inflationnistes et l'orientation requise pour la politique monétaire, l'OCDE a développé un cadre analytique fondé sur un ensemble de courbes de Phillips 'éclectiques' estimées pour les deux plus grandes économies de l'OCDE, les États-unis et la zone euro, qui est présenté dans ce document. Ce cadre est utilisé dans la préparation des Perspectives économiques pour expliquer l'évolution récente de l'inflation sous-jacente, hors alimentation et énergie, en fonction de l'évolution de mesures de la robustesse de la conjoncture (l'écart de production), des effets de contagion des prix de l'énergie sur l'inflation sous-jacente et des réponses différées à l'inflation passée à travers la formation des anticipations. Le fait que les effets d'entraînement des prix de l'énergie sur l'inflation sous-jacente apparaissent faibles comparés aux années 1970 peut s'expliquer par la baisse séculaire de l'intensité énergétique, un taux d'inflation 'moyen' faible et stable -- vers lequel l'inflation observée converge une fois qu'un choc a été absorbé -- et par une faiblesse persistante de l'économie à la suite de l'éclatement de la bulle 'dotcom'.
    Keywords: monetary policy, politique monétaire, energy, énergie, inflation, inflation
    JEL: E31 E52 Q40
    Date: 2007–04–23
  18. By: von Döllen, Andreas; Requate, Till
    Abstract: We study long-term incentives for polluting and regulated firms to invest in advanced abatement technologies, when some new technology is available but an even better technology will be expected in the future. Firms can invest only once. We find that depending on the adoption fixed costs all possible combinations of investment patters can occur in social optimum. Further we show that if the regulator anticipates the arrival of the new technology he can decentralize socially optimal allocation by charging Pigouvian tax or issuing tradable permits through announcing his policy and setting ex post optimal policy levels, after firms have invested.
    Keywords: Emission taxes, tradable permits, option value theory, uncertainty, Poisson distribution
    JEL: L5 O31 Q55
    Date: 2007
  19. By: Dorothée Boccanfuso (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Antonio Estache (World Bank and, the European Centre for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics at the Free University of Brussels); Luc Savard (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)
    Abstract: This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) macro-micro model to explore the distributional effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Senegal. In the first part of the paper we analyze the distribution of electricity in Senegal by income quintiles, between 1995 and 2001. The analysis demonstrates that poor and rural households are not the main beneficiaries of the expanded network. The results of the CGE application show that direct price increases have a minimal effect on poverty and inequality, whereas the general equilibrium effects are stronger and negative. Moreover, compensatory policies tested can help attenuate some negative effects.
    Keywords: computable general equilibrium model, micro-simulation, poverty analysis, income distribution, privatization, water utilities
    JEL: D58 D31 I32 L33 L93
    Date: 2007
  20. By: Joseph DOUCET; Jacques PERCEBOIS
    Abstract: Cet article présente trois mécanismes destinés à réduire les impacts environnementaux négatifs liés à la production et à la consommation d’énergie : le mécanisme des certificats noirs (permis échangeables d’émissions de CO2), celui des certificats verts (permis échangeables attestant de la production d’une certaine quantité d’électricité verte) et celui des certificats blancs (permis échangeables prouvant des efforts d’économies d’énergie dans le secteur résidentiel et tertiaire). On s’intéresse aux interactions réciproques entre ces trois marchés potentiels de certificats et on s’efforce de voir comment le régulateur doit gérer simultanément ces trois marchés, sachant que des stratégies opportunistes sont possibles de la part des divers opérateurs.
    Keywords: Certificats, Permis d'émissions, Electricité, Environnement
    Date: 2007
  21. By: Allen Bellas; Ian Lange
    Date: 2006–12
  22. By: Natalia Zugravu (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]); Katrin Millock (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]); Gérard Duchêne (ERUDITE - [Université Paris XII Val de Marne])
    Abstract: Les pays en transition ont considérablement réduit leurs émissions de CO2 entre 1996 et 2001. Cette performance est-elle due à l'application d'une politique volontariste de la part des gouvernements, ou bien est-elle un simple effet collatéral de la transformation industrielle majeure subie par ces pays ? Le but de cette étude est de répondre à cette question en construisant un modèle des relations complexes qui s'établissent entre la qualité de l'environnement, la croissance et la sévérité de la réglementation environnementale. Nous développons deux équations structurelles pour la demande (émissions) et l'offre (politique) de pollution. L'équation de l'offre prend en compte la qualité institutionnelle du pays (le contrôle de la corruption et la stabilité politique), aussi bien que les préférences des consommateurs pour la qualité de l'environnement, représentées dans cette étude par le revenu net par habitant et le niveau du chômage. Pour une analyse comparative, le système de ces équations simultanées est testé empiriquement par la méthode d'estimation des triples moindres carrés, pour un échantillon composé de trois groupes de pays : pays de l'Europe Centrale et de l'Est, de l'Europe de l'Ouest et pays émergents. Nos résultats montrent que, toute chose égale par ailleurs, l'effet d'échelle seul aurait expliqué une augmentation de 44,6% des émissions industrielles de CO2 dans les pays en transition entre 1996 et 2001. L'effet de composition aurait déterminé une réduction de 16% de ces émissions. Finalement, l'effet technique a eu l'impact marginal le plus important, correspondant à une réduction de 37,4% des émissions industrielles de CO2.
    Keywords: Transition, émissions CO2, politique environnementale, effet d'échelle, de composition et technique.
    Date: 2007–04–25

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