nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2007‒03‒24
28 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Imperial College, UK

  1. The Allocation of European Union Allowances: Lessons, Unifying Themes and General Principles By Carlo Carraro; Barbara Buchner; Denny Ellerman
  4. On Setting Near-term Climate Policy while the Dust Begins to Settle: The Legacy of the Stern Review By Gary W. Yohe; Richard S.J. Tol; Dean Murphy
  5. A Note on the Ethical Implications of the Stern Review By Kenny, Charles
  8. Killing the Goose That May Have Laid the Golden Egg? By Dieter Schmidtchen; Christoph Bier
  9. Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis valid for developing countries? A survey By Jie He
  11. Climate preferences and destination choice: a segmentation approach By Jacqueline M. Hamilton; David J. Maddison; Richard S.J. Tol
  12. Adaptation to Sea-level Rise in the People’s Republic of China – Assessing the Institutional Dimension of Alternative Organisational Frameworks By Maren A. Lau
  13. Climate, Happiness and the Kyoto Protocol: Someone Does not Like it Hot By BECCHETTI LEONARDO; CASTRIOTA STEFANO; LONDOÑO BEDOYA DAVID ANDRÉS
  17. Valuing the health impacts from particulate air pollution in Tianjin By Zhou Yuan; Richard S.J. Tol
  18. Asian century or multi-polar century ? By Dollar, David
  20. Long-term capacity adequacy in electricity markets: Reliability contracts VS Capacity obligations By Mohamed Haikel Khalfallah
  21. Heavy tails and electricity prices: Do time series models with non-Gaussian noise forecast better? By Weron, Rafal; Misiorek, Adam
  22. Netznutzungsentgelte als Wettbewerbshindernis? Diskriminierungsanreize und Regulierung in liberalisierten Strommärkten - Eine spieltheoretische Analyse <br> <br> The Access Pricing Problem: Incentives to Discriminate and the Regulation of Access Charges - a game theoretic analysis By Dieter Schmidtchen; Christoph Bier
  23. Offshore-Windstromerzeugung in der Nordsee - eine ökonomische und ökologische Sackgasse? By Thomas Heinzow; Richard S.J. Tol; Burkhard Bruemmer
  24. Canales de reciclaje internacional de los petrodólares By Juan Ruiz; Josep Vilarrubia
  25. Can the Natural Resource Curse Be Turned Into a Blessing? The Role of Trade Policies and Institutions By Rabah Arezki; Frederik van der Ploeg
  26. Des changements concevables pour le secteur des transports dans l'objectif "Facteur 4" By Charles Raux
  27. Testing Optimal Punishment Mechanisms under Price Regulation: the Case of the Retail Market for Gasoline By Robert Gagné; Simon van Norden; Bruno Versaevel
  28. Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments - An Application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector By Löfgren, Åsa; Millock, Katrin; Nauges, Céline

  1. By: Carlo Carraro (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Ca’ Foscari); Barbara Buchner (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Denny Ellerman (Senior Lecturer at MIT)
    Abstract: This paper is the concluding chapter of Rights, Rents and Fairness: Allocation in the European Emissions Trading Scheme, edited by the co-authors and forthcoming from Cambridge University Press. The main objective of this paper is to distill the lessons and general principles to be learnt from the allocation of allowances in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), i.e. in the world’s first experience with allocating carbon allowances to sub-national entities. We discuss the lessons that emerge from this experience and make some comments on what seem to be more general principles informing the allocation process and on what are the global implications of the EU ETS. As has become obvious during the first allocation phase, the diversity of experience among the Member States is considerable, so that it must be understood that these lessons and unifying themes are drawn from the experience of most of the Member States, not necessarily from all. Lessons and unifying observations are grouped in three categories: those concerning the conditions encountered, the processes employed, and the actual choices.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Emission Trading, Allocation, Fairness, EU Policy
    JEL: C72 H23 Q25 Q28
    Date: 2006
  2. By: Katrin Rehdanz; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: One problem in international climate policy is the refusal of large developing countries to accept emission reduction targets. Brazil, China and India together account for about 20% of today’s CO2 emissions. We analyse the case in which there is no international agreement on emission reduction targets, but countries do have domestic targets, and trade permits across borders. We contrast two scenarios. In one scenario, Brazil, China and India adopt their business as usual emissions as their target. In this scenario, there are substantial exports of emission permits from developing to developed countries, and substantial economic gains for all. In the second scenario, Brazil, China and India reduce their emissions target so that they have no net economic gain from permit trade. Here, developing countries do not accept responsibility for climate change (as they bear no net costs), but they do contribute to emission reduction policy by refusing to make money out of it. Adopting such break-even targets can be done at minor cost to developed and developing countries (roughly $2 bln/year each in extra costs and foregone benefits), while developing countries are still slightly better off than in the case without international emissions trade. This result is robust to variations in scenarios and parameters. It contrasts with Stewart and Wiener (2003) who propose granting “hot air” to developing countries to seduce them to accept targets. In 2020, China and India could reduce their emissions by some 10% from the baseline without net economic costs.
    Keywords: climate policy, developing countries, emission permits, emission reduction targets
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2005–07
  3. By: Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: The European Commission and a number of its Member States have adopted a stringent long-term target for climate policy, namely that the global mean temperature should not rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial times. This target is supported by rather thin arguments, based on inadequate methods, sloppy reasoning, and selective citation. In the scientific literature on “dangerous interference with the climate system”, most studies discuss either methodological issues, or carefully lay out the arguments for or against a particular target. These studies do not make specific recommendations, with the exception of cost-benefit analyses which argue for less stringent policy targets. However, there are also a few studies that recommend a target without the supporting argumentation. Overall, the 2°C target of the EU seems unfounded.
    Keywords: Climate policy, Article 2, dangerous interference, European Union
    Date: 2005–09
  4. By: Gary W. Yohe; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Dean Murphy
    Abstract: We review the explosion of commentary that has followed the release of the Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, and agree with most of what has been written. The Review is right when it argues on economic grounds for immediate intervention to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, but we feel that it is right for the wrong reasons. A persuasive case can be made that climate risks are real and increasingly threatening. If follows that some sort of policy will be required, and the least cost approach necessarily involves starting now. Since policy implemented in 2007 will not “solve” the climate problem, near term interventions can be designed to begin the process by working to avoid locking in high carbon investments and providing adequate incentives for carbon sequestration. We argue that both objectives can be achieved without undue economic harm in the near term by pricing carbon at something on the order of $15 per ton as long as it is understood that the price will increase persistently and predictably at something like the rate of interest; and we express support for a tax alternative to the usual cap-and-trade approach.
    Keywords: Stern Review, climate change, climate policy, social discount rate; risk and equity aversion
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2007–03
  5. By: Kenny, Charles
    Abstract: The Stern Review adopts two interesting elements in its calculation of the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation. First is a ‘global welfarist’ approach that values the utility of the World’s people (now and into the future) equally, and sets global utility maximization as the correct goal for policy. Second is an assumption of a declining marginal utility to income. Consistent application of the ‘global welfarist’ approach and the declining marginal utility of income together would demand an urgent process of global income redistribution. Over the long term, this might see the richest ten percent of the World’s population facing an average redistributive tax rate in the region of 82 percent.
    Keywords: Stern Review; Climate Change; Welfare Economics
    JEL: Q54 O10 F20
    Date: 2007–03–01
  6. By: Brian S. Fisher; Guy Jakeman; Hom M. Pant; Malte Schwoon; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: We present the Canberra-Hamburg Integrated Model for Population (CHIMP), a new global population model for long-term projections. Distinguishing features of this model, compared to other model for secular population projections, are that (a) mortality, fertility, and migration are partly driven by per capita income; (b) large parts of the model have been estimated rather than calibrated; and (c) the model is in the public domain. Scenario experiments show similarities but also differences with other models. Similarities include rapid aging of the population and an eventual reversal of global population growth. The main difference is that CHIMP projects substantially higher populations, particularly in Africa, primarily because our data indicate a slower fertility decline than assumed elsewhere. Model runs show a strong interaction between population growth and economic growth, and a weak feedback of climate change on population growth.
    Keywords: population model, long term projections, global change, integrated assessment
    JEL: J11 Q54
    Date: 2005–07
  7. By: Kerstin Ronneberger; Uwe A. Schneider; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: The Kleines Land Use Model (KLUM), is a global agricultural landallocation model, developed as a tool to dynamically couple global state-of-the-art vegetation and economy models. The allocation process is based on profit maximisation, assuming risk aversion and decreasing returns to scales. The model is suited for long-term predictions, acknowledges spatial and biophysical diversity and enables the data exchange with common vegetation models. Finally, the effective simplicity of the mechanism facilitates online-coupling with larger models. Simulations of future crop allocation under climate change suggest that cultivation of cereals would fall in favour of minor crops such as vegetables and fruits. Total revenue of crop production is predicted to increase for most parts of the world. The comparison with two reference scenarios, where solely prices or yields are changed show that the observed results are dominated by the induced price changes. Losses in revenue prevail and changes in area are more balanced over the world when only the much smaller yield changes are applied. Yet, the simple sum of price and yield effects on crop allocation can differ in magnitude and sign from the real dynamics, emphasising the importance of simultaneous inclusion of economic and biophysical aspects of land-use decisions.
    Keywords: global land-use model, crop allocation, feed back loop, climate change
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2005–05
  8. By: Dieter Schmidtchen (Universität des Saarlandes); Christoph Bier (Uni-Saarland - Center for the Study of Law and Economics)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is (1) to analyze the potential and the incentives for a vertically integrated input monopolist to engage in price-discrimination when there is downstream entry, and (2) to examine the question, whether a cost-based regulation of access charges for electricity grids enhances competition in the downstream-market. The paper shows that the incumbent will never block entry if the entrant is more efficient than the incumbent. The reason is that the input-monopolist can make more profit through input sales than it could generate by producing the downstream product itself. If the entrant does not have a cost advantage either the incumbent or the entrant gets a monopoly position. Providing for a level playing field by means of a cost-based regulation of access charges always creates competition in the downstream-market. The paper also derives the welfare effects of both the liberalization of the downstream-market and the cost-based regulation.
    Keywords: discrimination, regulation, vertical integration, electricity, access charges, sabotage,
    JEL: L L L
  9. By: Jie He (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke)
    Abstract: This paper surveys the existing Environmental Kuznets Curve studies and discusses to what extent they may be valid and applicable for developing countries. We found that, given the shortcomings in both the theoretical and empirical aspects of the analyses applied to this hypothesis, no one-fit-for-all inverted-U-shaped curve can describe adequately the relationship between growth and pollution –which does not only imply challenges but also opportunities for developing countries: indeed, they are the ones in charge for the choice of their own sustainable development trajectory in the future. If they manage to coordinate adequately their structural, institutional and technical policies, all the while making good use of the already-existing techniques in pollution abatement, they will be able to tunnel or leap-frog the EKC trajectory derived from developed countries’ experience, thus making a win-win situation happen for both economy and the environment as soon as possible.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve, Pollution, Economic growth, Methodology, Theory
    JEL: Q56
    Date: 2007
  10. By: Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: I compare and contrast five climate scenarios: (1) no climate policy; (2) non-cooperative cost-benefit analysis (NC CBA); (3) NC CBA with international permit trade; (4) NC CBA with joint and several liability for climate change damages; and (5) NC CBA with liability proportional to a country’s share in cumulative emissions. As estimates of the marginal damage costs are low, standard NC CBA implies only limited emission abatement. With international permit trade, emission abatement is even less, as the carbon tax is reduced in countries with fast-growing emissions, and because a permit market ignores the positive, dynamic externalities of abatement. Proportional liability shifts abatement effort towards the richer countries, but away from the fast-growing economies; again, long-term, global emission abatement is reduced. Joint and several liability would lead to more stringent climate policy. These findings are qualitatively robust to the size and accounting of climate change impacts, to the definition of liability, and to the baseline scenario.
    Keywords: Climate change, cost-benefit analysis, liability, permit trade
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2006–02
  11. By: Jacqueline M. Hamilton; David J. Maddison; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: A data set of the holiday destination choices of German tourists is segmented using phase in the life cycle; second, holiday motivation and holiday activities and third, the region of residency. For each segment demand is estimated using data on environmental and economic characteristics of countries. The optimal temperature, where demand peaks, ranges from 22°C to 24°C across the segments. More interestingly, the steepness of the temperature demand relationship is different for different segments. Even though the temperature optima are similar, changes in temperature, for example caused by climate change will have a larger effect on demand depending on the steepness of the temperature-demand relationship. A climate index is calculated for each country using climate data and the respective coefficients from the estimated demand equations. The climate index values are different across the segments: the segment containing those tourists who were swimming and sunbathing while on holiday has the highest index values of all of the segments.
    Keywords: tourism demand, segmentation, climate preferences
    JEL: L83
    Date: 2005–09
  12. By: Maren A. Lau
    Abstract: Global sea-levels are rising due to global warming. Major impacts on the world’s coasts are sand beach erosion, salination of ground water, and inundation. Adaptation is the only option to address these future threats as the mitigation of CO2 emissions is not capable of preventing sea-level rise. There are several organisational frameworks existing that can incorporate adaptation measures. Integrated Coastal Zone Management is proposed most often. Alternative frameworks are disaster management and sectoral frameworks involved in prevention activities, such as the water management that often holds responsibility for dike building. However, the integration of adaptation into an organisation framework is further dependent on institutional capacity within a political system. In order to illustrate what approach is feasible for a hierarchical political system the People’s Republic of China is taken as an example. An analysis of various frameworks and institutional responsibilities shows that the institutional dimension of organisation is decisive when seeking for an adequate framework to include adaptation to sea-level rise in. This paper is based on empirical results from a series of interviews and the analysis of official publications on frameworks and institutional responsibilities. It concludes with a recommendation on a climate change based framework.
    Keywords: adaptation, sea-level rise, climate change, institutions, frameworks
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2006–01
    Abstract: The effects of climate on well-being have been investigated by focusing on the impact of climate on real estate prices, rents and wages, migrations and, recently, human happiness. We follow this last direction by merging individual data on happiness from the World Value Survey (third and fourth waves) with climate conditions of the WVS respondents’ cities from the NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration of the US Department of Commerce) database. More specifically, we use more than 118,000 observations to test the impact of climate on happiness and estimate the effects on it of climate related gains/losses arising when individuals move from one city to another (e.g. from Rome to London). Our research documents the existence of significant links between several climatic factors (rain, fog, temperature, wind) and happiness.
    Date: 2007–01
  14. By: Gary W. Yohe; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: Tol (2003) found evidence that the uncertainty that surrounds estimates of the marginal damage of climate change may be infinite even if total damages are finite and questioned the applicability of expected cost-benefit analysis to global mitigation policy. Yohe (2003) suggested that this problem could be alleviated if international development aid were directed at eliminating the source of the problem – climate induced negative growth rates in a few regions along a handful of troublesome scenarios. The hypothesis about adding a second policy lever to the climate policy calculus is shown to hold, but not as robustly as perhaps expected. Infinite uncertainty and its implications for global mitigation policy can be avoided for a reasonable price in the relatively unlikely event that climate change can cause negative economic growth in a region or two when the portfolio of international policies includes at least two tools.
    Keywords: climate policy, development aid, equity weighting, expected cost-benefit analysis
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2005–08
  15. By: Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: The avoided damages of climate change are estimated for a range of emission reduction policies from a range of business as usual scenarios. In the emission abatement scenarios, concentrations of greenhouse gases overshoot before falling to a stable level. The peak concentrations are used to characterise the stabilisation scenario. Similarly, the peak impacts are used to evaluate the scenarios. This is in line with avoiding “dangerous interference with the climate system”. Results are shown for both cost-effective and “realistic” emission reduction policies. Avoided climate change impacts increase with emission abatement, but the additionally avoided impacts fall as abatement gets more stringent. The most serious climate change impacts can be avoided with only modest emission reduction. Very stringent emission reduction may even increase climate change impacts, because of the removal of the sulphur veil and because emission abatement costs may slow economic growth and increase vulnerability. A comparison of the net present value of the costs of emission reduction with the net present value of the avoided damage also point towards more modest emission abatement. These findings are robust to variations in scenarios and parameters.
    Keywords: Avoided impacts of climate change, emission reduction, climate policy
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2005–04
  16. By: Megan Ceronsky; David Anthoff; Cameron Hepburn; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — the marginal social damage from a ton of emitted carbon — has tended to focus on “best guess” scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high-damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of non-linear climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the thermohaline circulation; the dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above “best guess” levels. We find that incorporating these impacts can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of 20. Furthermore, our results suggest that the exclusive focus on thermohaline circulation collapse in the non-linear climate response literature is unwarranted, because other potential non-linear climate responses appear to be significantly more costly.
    Keywords: climate change, catastrophe, non-linearity, impacts
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2005–08
  17. By: Zhou Yuan; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
    Abstract: Although China has made dramatic economic progress in recent years, air pollution continues to be the most visible environmental problem and imposes significant health and economic costs on society. Using data on pollutant concentration and population for 2003, this paper estimates the economic costs of health related effects due to particulate air pollution in urban areas of Tianjin, China. Exposure-response functions are used to quantify the impact on human health. Value of a statistical life and benefit transfer are used to obtain the unit value of some health effects. Our results show significant health costs associated with air pollution in Tianjin. The total economic cost is estimated to be US$1.1 billion, about 3.7% of Tianjin’s GDP in 2003. The findings underscore the importance of urban air pollution control. Finally, the policy implications for alternative energy options and climate policies are given.
    Keywords: particulate air pollution, PM10, economic valuation, Tianjin
    JEL: Q51 Q53
    Date: 2005–09
  18. By: Dollar, David
    Abstract: The " rise of Asia " is something of a myth. During 1990-2005 China accounted for 28 percent of global growth, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP). India accounted for 9 percent. The rest of developing Asia, with nearly a billion people, accounted for only 7 percent, the same as Latin America. Hence there is no general success of Asian developing economies. China has grown better than its developing neighbors because it started its reform with a better base of human capital, has been more o pen to foreign trade and investment, and created good investment climates in coastal cities. China ' s success changes the equation going forward: its wages are now two to three times higher than in the populous Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam), and China will become an ever-larger importer of natural resource and labor-intensive products. Developing countries need to become more open and improve their investment climates to benefit from these opportunities. China itself faces new challenges that could hamper its further development: unsustainable trade imbalance with the United States, energy and water scarcity and unsustainable use of natural resources, and growing inequality and social tension. To address the first two of these challenges, good cooperation between China and the United States is essential. The author concludes that we are more likely to be facing a " multi-polar century, " than an Asian century.
    Keywords: Economic Theory & Research,Population Policies,Energy Production and Transportation,Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality,Trade and Regional Integration
    Date: 2007–03–01
  19. By: Mario Denni; G. Frewer
    Abstract: The present study aims at providing new evidence on the price re- lationships between crude oil and petroleum products. We employ single-equation error correction models (ECM) in which both changes in crude oil price and deviations from the long-run equilibrium are used to explain product price dynamics. A GARCH structure is applied to models' residuals to account for the time-varying volatility. Our key piece of innovation is the introduction of re¯ning margin e®ects to the analysis of the asymmetric products price movements. Results suggest that the overall balance in the re¯nery sector plays an important part in the adjustment to crude price shocks.
    Keywords: Oil prices; Market integration; Cointegration; Error correction models;
    JEL: E32 C22 D40 Q40
  20. By: Mohamed Haikel Khalfallah (GATE CNRS)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the problem of long-term capacity adequacy in electricity markets. Two investment incentive mechanisms, Capacity obligations and Reliability contracts, are analyzed and compared to the benchmark design, the energy-only market. We use the dynamic programming method and real option theory to develop two dynamic models that enable one to assess the optimal market design for ensuring sufficient generation capacity to meet future demand at efficient cost (the deterministic model) and to analyze the optimal timing of investments when uncertainties in future load and fuel prices are considered (the stochastic model). The effects of different factors on investment strategies, such as the pricing of CO2 and differences between construction delays and cost structures of the new technologies, are also analyzed. The numerical results show that: (1) the reliability contract scheme would be the more cost-efficient mechanism, ensuring the long term system adequacy and encouraging earlier and adequate new investments in the system, compared to the capacity obligation method which would result in over-investment and price manipulations; (2) short lead time technology would be preferred with the capacity obligation design, while cost competitive technology would be chosen with the reliability contract scheme; (3) the pricing of CO2 and the taking into account of uncertainties would affect investment strategies but would have no impact on the effectiveness of the reliability contracts scheme.
    Keywords: generation capacity adequacy, electricity market, real options, dynamic programming
    JEL: C61 L51 O14 O21
    Date: 2006–09
  21. By: Weron, Rafal; Misiorek, Adam
    Abstract: This paper is a continuation of our earlier studies on short-term price forecasting of California electricity prices with time series models. Here we focus on whether models with heavy-tailed innovations perform better in terms of forecasting accuracy than their Gaussian counterparts. Consequently, we limit the range of analyzed models to autoregressive time series approaches that have been found to perform well for pre-crash California power market data. We expand them by allowing for heavy-tailed innovations in the form of α-stable or generalized hyperbolic noise.
    Keywords: Electricity; price forecasting; heavy tails; time series; α-stable distribution; generalized hyperbolic distribution
    JEL: C53 C46 C22 Q40
    Date: 2007–03
  22. By: Dieter Schmidtchen (Universität des Saarlandes); Christoph Bier (Center for the Study of Law and Economics (CSLE), Saarbrücken)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is (1) to analyze the incentives for a vertically integrated input monopolist to engage in price-discrimination when there is downstream entry, and (2) to examine the question, whether a cost-based regulation of access charges for electricity grids enhances competition in the downstream-market. The paper also derives the welfare effects of both the liberalization of the downstream-market and the cost-based regulation. The paper shows that the incumbent will never block entry if the entrant is more efficient than the incumbent. The reason is that the input-monopolist can make more profit through input sales than it could generate by producing the downstream product itself. If the entrant does not have a cost advantage either the incumbent or the entrant gets a monopoly position. Providing for a level playing field by means of a cost-based regulation of access charges always lowers prices in the downstream-market. Zusammenfassung: Das Paper untersucht zwei Fragen: (1) wann hat ein Stromnetzbetreiber, der zugleich im nachgelagerten Strommarkt tätig ist (vertikal integrierter Netzbetreiber) Anreiz, durch diskriminierende Festsetzung von Netznutzungsentgelten die Konkurrenz im Strommarkt zu behindern? (2) Kann eine kostenorientierte Regulierung der Netznutzungsentgelte mit dem Ziel eines diskriminierungsfreien Netzzugangs für mehr Wettbewerb Strommarkt sorgen? Das Paper untersucht auch die Wohlfahrtseffekte einer Liberalisierung der Strommärkte sowie einer kostenorientierten Regulierung der Netznutzungsentgelte. Das Paper zeigt, daß der vertikal integrierte Netzbetreiber niemals Konkurrenten diskriminieren wird, wenn diese Strom kostengünstiger erzeugen als er. Er wird sie vielmehr zum Markteintritt einladen und über das Netznutzungsentgelt an ihrem Kostenvorsprung partizipieren. Wenn der Konkurrent keinen Kostenvorteil aufweist, ist der Anreiz zur Marktabschottung groß. Eine kostenorientierte Regulierung der Netznutzungsentgelte zur Schaffung fairen Wettbewerbs senkt die Strompreise und fördert die Interessen der Stromverbraucher.
    Keywords: Strommarkt, Netznutzungsentgelte, Preisdiskriminierung, raising rivals costs",
    JEL: L43 L51 L94
  23. By: Thomas Heinzow; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Burkhard Bruemmer
    Keywords: Wind power
    JEL: Q42
    Date: 2005–08
  24. By: Juan Ruiz (Banco de España); Josep Vilarrubia (Banco de España)
    Abstract: La subida del precio del crudo desde 2002 ha conllevado un significativo aumento de los ingresos en los países exportadores de petróleo. Así, los países de la OPEP y Rusia recibieron entre 2003 y 2006, unos 1,3 billones de dólares adicionales respecto a su nivel de exportaciones en el año 2002 gracias al aumento del precio del crudo y del resto de materias primas. Este documento analiza, a la luz de los escasos datos disponibles, el reciclaje de estos recursos hacia la economía mundial a través de dos canales: el comercial, vía mayores importaciones, y el financiero, a través de un aumento de los activos netos de estos países en el resto del mundo. Nuestros resultados indican que, aproximadamente, el 50% de los recursos adicionales por exportaciones se han destinado a un aumento de las importaciones y el resto se ha destinado a la acumulación de reservas internacionales y otras mejoras de los activos netos de estos países. Comparando este episodio con otros de subida del precio del petróleo como, por ejemplo, los resultantes de la restricción de oferta que siguió a la formación de la OPEP en los años setenta, encontramos que la importancia del canal comercial ha sido mayor en este episodio que en los anteriores. Esto puede ser atribuido a (i) la percepción de una mayor permanencia de la presente subida en un contexto de demanda creciente, y (ii) el mayor gradualismo con que se ha producido el presente aumento de precio, que habría permitido el aumento escalonado de las importaciones.
    Keywords: petróleo, exportaciones, importaciones, reservas internacionales, activos netos exteriores, reciclaje comercial, reciclaje financiero
    JEL: Q43 F14
    Date: 2006–06
  25. By: Rabah Arezki; Frederik van der Ploeg
    Abstract: We criticize existing empirical results on the detrimental effects of natural resource dependence on the rate of economic growth after controlling for institutional quality, openness, and initial income. These results do not survive once we use instrumental variables techniques to correct for the endogenous nature of the explanatory variables. Furthermore, they suffer from omitted variables bias as they overestimate the effect of initial income per capita and thus underestimate the speed of conditional convergence. Instead, we provide new evidence for the impact of natural resource dependence on income per capita in a systematic empirical cross-country framework. In addition to a significant negative direct impact of natural resources on income per capita, we find a significant indirect effect of natural resources on institutions. We allow for interaction effects and provide evidence that the natural resource curse is particularly severe for economic performance in countries with a low degree of trade openness. Adopting policies directed toward more trade openness may thus soften the impact of a resource curse. We also check the robustness of our results by using a variety of instruments and also employing the ratio of natural capital rather than natural resource exports to national income as an explanatory variable. We find evidence that resource abundance, measured by the stock of natural capital, also induces a resource curse, but less severely for countries that are relatively open.
    Keywords: Resource curse , institutions , trade policies , growth performance , income per capita , Trade policy ,
    Date: 2007–03–09
  26. By: Charles Raux (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - [CNRS : UMR5593] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat])
    Abstract: Au niveau mondial, les transports consomment 20% de l'énergie, dont 80% dans les transports routiers et 10% dans les transports aériens, et 95% de cette énergie est à base de pétrole. Le secteur des transports est l'un des principaux émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre dans la plupart des pays, et notamment du CO2 issu de la combustion des carburants fossiles. Pour que les transports contribuent significativement à l'objectif du « Facteur 4 » en 2050, trois pistes différentes mais complémentaires peuvent être considérées : l'amélioration des technologies existantes, de nouveaux arrangements dans les services de transport, et enfin, les actions sur les comportements des usagers.
    Keywords: facteur 4 ; émissions de gaz à effet de serre ; émissions dues au transport ; pistes d'action
    Date: 2007–03–15
  27. By: Robert Gagné (HEC Montréal, CRT and CIRANO); Simon van Norden (HEC Montréal, CIRANO and CIREQ); Bruno Versaevel (EM Lyon, GATE CNRS)
    Abstract: We analyse the effects of a price floor on price wars (or deep price cuts) in the retail market for gasoline. Bertrand supergame oligopoly models predict that price wars should last longer in the presence of price floors. In 1996, the introduction of a price floor in the Quebec retail market for gasoline serves as a natural experiment with which to test this prediction. We use a Markov Switching Model with two latent states to simultaneously identify the periods of price-collusion/price-war and estimate the parameters characterizing each state. Results support the prediction that price floors reduce the intensity of price wars but increase their expected duration.
    Keywords: gasoline prices, Markov switching model, oligopoly supergame, price regulation
    JEL: C32 L13 L81
    Date: 2006–10
  28. By: Löfgren, Åsa (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Millock, Katrin (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CNRS, Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne); Nauges, Céline (UMR LERNA-Université de Toulouse, Manufacture des Tabacs)
    Abstract: We propose a method for estimating hurdle rates for firms’ investments in pollution abatement technology, using ex post data. The method is based on a structural option value model where the future price of polluting fuel is the major source of uncertainty facing the firm. The econometric procedure is illustrated using a panel of firms from the Swedish pulp and paper industry, and the energy and heating sector from 2000 to 2003. The results indicate a hurdle rate of investment of almost 3 in the pulp and paper industry and almost 4 in the energy and heating sector. <p>
    Keywords: option value; fuel price uncertainty; investment decision; pollution abatement; panel data pulp and paper industry; energy and heating sector
    JEL: C33 D81 O33 Q48 Q53
    Date: 2007–03–21

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