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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | Using a newly developed measure of global real economic activity, a structural decomposition of the real price of crude oil in four components is proposed: oil supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries; other oil supply shocks; aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities; and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. The latter shock is designed to capture shifts in the price of oil driven by higher precautionary demand associated with concerns about the availability of future oil supplies. The paper quantifies the magnitude and timing of these shocks, their dynamic effects on the real price of oil and their relative importance in determining the real price of oil during 1975-2005. The analysis also sheds light on the origins of the major oil price shocks since 1979. Distinguishing between the sources of higher oil prices is shown to be crucial for assessing the effect of higher oil prices on U.S. real GDP and CPI inflation. It is shown that policies aimed at dealing with higher oil prices must take careful account of the origins of higher oil prices. The paper also quantifies the extent to which the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. since the mid-1970s has been determined by the external economic shocks driving the real price of oil as opposed to domestic economic factors and policies. |
| Keywords: | oil supply; causality; oil demand; oil price shocks |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5994&r=ene |
| By: | Christian Groth (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This article reviews issues related to the incorporation of non-renewable resources in the theory of economic growth and development. As an offshoot of the new growth theory of the last two decades a series of contributions have studied endogenous technical change in relation to resource scarcity. We discuss the main approaches within this literature and consider questions like: How is the new literature related to the wave of resource economics of the 1970s? What light is thrown on the limits-to-growth issue? Does the existence of non-renewable resources have implications for the controversies within new growth theory? |
| Keywords: | endogenous growth; innovation; non-renewable resources; knife-edge conditions; robustness; limits to growth |
| JEL: | O4 Q3 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0626&r=ene |
| By: | Auriol, Emmanuelle; Picard, Pierre M |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses governments’ trade-off between fiscal benefits and consumer surplus in privatization reforms of noncompetitive industries in developing countries. Under privatization, the control rights are transferred to private interests so that public subsidies decline. This benefit for tax-payers comes at the cost of price increases for consumers. In developing countries, tight budget constraints imply that privatization may be optimal for low profitability segments. For highly profitable public utilities, the combination of allocative inefficiency and critical budgetary conditions may favour public ownership. Finally, once a market segment gives room for more than one firm, governments prefer to regulate the industry. In the absence of a credible regulatory agency, regulation is achieved through public ownership. |
| Keywords: | developing countries; government budget constraint; infrastructure; privatization; public utilities; regulation |
| JEL: | H54 L33 L43 |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6018&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Angelier |
| Abstract: | Sur la plupart des grands marchés gaziers régionaux, la demande de gaz naturel augmente plus lentement que prévu, depuis 2000. Les avantages de cette énergie font qu'elle est très appréciée par les demandeurs. Mais les producteurs sont moins incités à accroître leur offre : la rente gazière est bien moins importante que la rente pétrolière, d'une part, ce qui pousse les décideurs à investir plutôt dans le pétrole que dans le gaz, lorsqu'ils ont le choix ; d'autre part, une libéralisation peut-être prématurée des marchés gaziers ne rassure pas certains offreurs qui craignent pour la rentabilité de leurs investissements gaziers potentiels. |
| Keywords: | MARCHE INTERNATIONAL ; GAZ NATUREL |
| Date: | 2006–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00120490_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Angelier |
| Abstract: | Les industries de l'électricité et du gaz naturel, en France comme dans la plupart des pays, ont tout d'abord été constituées en monopoles publics. Depuis la seconde guerre mondiale, EDF et GDF ont ainsi rempli leurs missions de doter la France d'une industrie électrique et d'une industrie gazières toutes les deux efficaces.<br />Cette structure est toutefois remise en cause du fait d'un nouvel environnement concurrentiel de ces industries : la concurrence est introduite dans l'offre, les réseaux de transport et distribution restent monopoles publics, le tout étant placé sous la surveillance d'une Commission de Régulation de l'Energie.<br />Des transactions économiques nouvelles apparaissent désormais à trois niveaux : sur le marché de gros de l'électricité et du gaz ; pour ce qui est de l'accès de tiers aux réseaux de transport et de distribution ; les modalités d'achat concurrentiel d'électricité et de gaz par le consommateur final.<br />La nouvelle organisation institutionnelle de ces industries est-elle plus efficace que l'ancienne ? |
| Keywords: | INDUSTRIE ELECTRIQUE ; INDUSTRIE GAZIERE ; MONOPOLE ; LIBERALISATION ; FRANCE |
| Date: | 2006–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00120737_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Angelier |
| Abstract: | Dans la plupart des pays exportateurs d'hydrocarbures, les revenus d'exportation n'ont pas rempli les espoirs qui étaient placés en eux : on en attendait un moteur du développement économique et social, rôle qui tarde à jouer. De fait, il apparaît que les marchés internationaux des hydrocarbures fonctionnent comme des marchés d'acheteurs, sur lesquels les offreurs ont du mal à imposer leurs stratégies. D'autre part, le phénomène du syndrome hollandais aboutit à surévaluer la monnaie nationale des exportateurs d'hydrocarbures, ce qui réduit à néant les efforts entrepris pour " semer l'argent du pétrole ". La Norvège a trouvé une parade à ce dysfonctionnement : la méthode est-elle transposable à l'Algérie ? |
| Keywords: | PAYS EXPORTATEUR ; PETROLE ; GAZ NATUREL ; MARCHE INTERNATIONAL |
| Date: | 2006–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00120750_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Sylvain Leduc; Keith Sill |
| Abstract: | An equilibrium model is used to assess the quantitative importance of monetary policy for the post-1984 decline in U.S. inflation and output volatility. The principal finding is that monetary policy played a substantial role in reducing inflation volatility, but a small role in reducing real output volatility. The model attributes much of the decline in real output volatility to smaller TFP shocks. We also investigate the pattern of output and inflation volatility under an optimal monetary policy counterfactual. We find that real output volatility would have been somewhat lower, and inflation volatility substantially lower, had monetary policy been set optimally. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:873&r=ene |
| By: | JAVIER CARRILLO (Instituto de Empresa) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how the uncertainty associated to the absence of a post-Kyoto regime regarding Greenhouse Gas mitigation is affecting investments in mitigation activities in the EU electricity sector and, thus, future emissions levels. Based on a wide survey of EU power companies, the paper identifies the most likely post-Kyoto scenarios considered by these firms and how they are coping with such uncertainty in their current investment decisions. The major conclusion is that the non-existence of a post-Kyoto regime is having a negative effect on current business investment decisions in mitigation activities, increasing risk premiums and financing costs. |
| Keywords: | Investment decisions, Post-Kyoto scenarios |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emp:wpaper:wp06-26&r=ene |
| By: | Drosdowski, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Using a considerable number of theoretical and empirical sources, we analyze the relationship between democracy and environment. First, we compare the situation in democracies and non-democracies. Later, we discuss environmental distribution conflicts and the role of economic growth. In addition, we illuminate the way in which democratization influences environmental policies, concentrating on the role of economic inequality. Moreover, we discuss the impact of electoral rules and systems, as well as polluting lobbies. Finally, we consider political alternatives and sum up the main conclusions. |
| Keywords: | democracy, environmental policy, political economy |
| JEL: | D72 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-355&r=ene |