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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Gilbert E. Metcalf |
| Abstract: | Efforts to reduce carbon emissions significantly will require considerable improvements in energy intensity, the ratio of energy consumption to economic activity. Improvements in energy intensity over the past thirty years suggest great possibilities for energy conservation: current annual energy consumption avoided due to declines in energy intensity since 1970 substantially exceed current annual domestic energy supply. While historic improvements in energy intensity suggest great scope for energy conservation in the future, I argue that optimistic estimates of avoided energy costs due to energy conservation are likely biased downward. I then analyze a data set on energy intensity in the United States at the state level between 1970 and 2001 to disentangle the key elements of energy efficiency and economic activity that drive changes in energy intensity. |
| JEL: | Q4 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12272&r=ene |
| By: | Kari Alho |
| Keywords: | climate policies, economic growth, R&D |
| JEL: | Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2006–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1024&r=ene |
| By: | Peter Russ (IPTS - Joint Research Centre - [Commission européenne]); Patrick Criqui (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - [CNRS : FR2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II]) |
| Abstract: | Long-term outlooks are key tools for policy design in the energy sector. These outlooks should also include scenarios considering active policies that address the challenge of climate change. Consequently such a CO2 emission reduction scenario was analysed as a case study within the ACROPOLIS project. This paper presents a method to derive regional emission targets that correspond to an emission trajectory that stabilises carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, within a concentration target set at 550 ppmv. In a next step, the impact of emission reduction on the structure of the future energy system is briefly analysed using the POLESworld energy model. Finally, some key indicators are compared with the results from other world energy models used in the ACROPOLIS project to analyse the same emission reduction scenario. While the emission reduction compared to the baseline is significant, the resulting necessary adaptations in terms of energy and carbon efficiencies lie within the ranges observed in the past. It is demonstrated that the defined “soft landing” emission reduction scenario would under the assumption of emission trading produce permit prices that are not extremely high. Though forecasted effect of CO2 emission reduction on the energy system is quite different across models, the marginal reduction costs<br />broadly coincide across the participating models. This especially is true when taking into account the different reduction efforts caused by different levels of emissions in the baseline. |
| Keywords: | Post-Kyoto targets ; model comparison ; energy outlook |
| Date: | 2006–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00078489_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - [CNRS : UMR8568] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales][Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts][Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées]); Pierre Matarasso (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - [CNRS : UMR8568] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales][Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts][Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées]) |
| Abstract: | Les modèles « intégrés » économie-énergie-climat sont des modèles numériques interdisciplinaires destinés à étudier ces questions d'impact, d'adaptation et de réduction du changement climatique. Ils visent à traduire les débats discursifs sur la précaution en faisceaux d'arguments logiquement organisés, basés sur des connaissances scientifiques mesurables. Ils sont construits dans l'espoir de permettre aux citoyens, aux instances de décision nationales et internationales de prendre des décisions mieux informées. Les modèles intégrés sont le socle d'une accumulation de connaissances qui nous permettront d'explorer une vaste gamme de situations possibles et de nous préparer ainsi à de nombreuses éventualités, tant du côté des évolutions climatiques que de celui des manières de réduire les émissions anthropiques. |
| Keywords: | modélisation intégrée, énergie, climat, économie |
| Date: | 2006–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00078623_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Lionel Ragot (MEDEE et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Katheline Schubert (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The Kyoto Protocol, which came in force in February 2005, allows countries to resort to "supplementary activities" consisting particularly in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils. Existing papers studying the optimal carbon sequestration recognize the importance of the temporality of sequestration, but overlook the fact that it is a dissymmetric dynamic process. This paper takes explicitly into account the temporality of sequestration. Its first contribution is technical : we solve an optimal control problem with two stages and a dissymmetric dynamic process. The second contribution is empirical : we show that the error made when sequestration is supposed immediate can be very significant, and we exhibit numerically the optimal path of sequestration /de-sequestration for specific benefit, damage and cost functions, and a calibration that mimics roughly the world conditions. |
| Keywords: | Environment, agriculture, carbon sequestration, Kyoto Protocol, optimal control. |
| JEL: | C61 H23 Q01 Q15 |
| Date: | 2006–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v06040&r=ene |
| By: | Ian J. Bateman (University of East Anglia); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Antreas Tsoumas (University of the Aegean) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the nature of stated preferences for reducing air pollution impacts. Specifically a contingent valuation (CV) experiment is designed to elicit individuals’ values for reducing these impacts and to examine how these may change when multiple schemes for reducing differing impacts are valued. The novel survey design allows simultaneous testing for the presence of several anomalies reported in the CV literature within the same context, including (i) scope sensitivity (ii) part-whole or substitution effects (iii) ordering effects and (iv) visible choice set effects. Results indicate some scope sensitivity and interaction between ordering effects and visible choice set effects, as well as substantial part-whole or substitution effects between two exclusive schemes. A practical consequence of these findings is that estimates of the value of combined programmes may not readily be obtained by summing the values of their constituent parts obtained using the CV method. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; contingent valuation; stated preferences; part-whole effect; experimental surveys |
| JEL: | C42 C90 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2006–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:06/08&r=ene |