nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2006‒04‒29
seventeen papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Imperial College, UK

  1. Improving the Evidence Base for Energy Policy: The Role of Systematic Reviews By Steve Sorrell
  2. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss By Maximilian Auffhammer
  3. The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries By Matteo Manera; Alessandro Cologni
  4. Le nouveau rôle de l'Etat dans l'industrie pétrolière en Russie : le privé sous tutelle ? By Sadek Boussena; Catherine Locatelli
  5. Les enjeux géopolitiques des hydrocarbures de la Caspienne et de la Russie. By Catherine Locatelli
  6. Le cas Enron : les enseignements pour la réglementation By Frédéric Marty
  7. Assessing the Risk of Oil Spills in the Mediterranean: the Case of the Route from the Black Sea to Italy By Andrea Bigano; Paul Sheehan
  8. An Accidental Oil Spill Along the Belgian Coast: Results from a CV Study By Karl van Biervliet; Dirk Le Roy; Paulo A.L.D. Nunes
  9. Developing the PAGE2002 Model with Endogenous Technical Change By Stephan Alberth; Chris Hope
  10. Policy Implications of Stochastic Learning Using a Modified PAGE2002 Model By Stephan Alberth; Chris Hope
  11. Endogenous Technology and Tradable Emission Quotas By Michael Hoel; Rolf Golombek
  12. Climate Change and Extreme Events: An Assessment of Economic Implications By Roberto Roson; Alvaro Calzadilla; Francesco Pauli
  13. Uniqueness and Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Model with Polluting Emissions By Giovanni Bella
  14. What factors influence mitigative capacity ? By Harald Winkler; Kevin Baumert; Odile Blanchard; Sarah Burch; John Robinson
  15. Global Warming and Hyperbolic Discounting By Larry Karp
  16. Environmentalism and Technology By Adrian Smith
  17. L'aire métropolitaine marseillaise et les territoires de l'industrie By Jacques Garnier; Jean-Benoît Zimmermann

  1. By: Steve Sorrell (SPRU, University of Sussex)
    Abstract: The concept of Evidence Based Policy and Practice (EBPP) has gained increasing prominence in the UK over the last ten years and now plays a dominant role in a number of policy areas, including healthcare, education, social work, criminal justice and urban regeneration. But despite this substantial, influential and growing activity, the concept remains largely unknown to policymakers and researchers within the energy field. This paper proposes a definition of EBPP, identifies its key features and examines the potential role of systematic reviews of evidence in a particular area of policy. It summarises the methods through which systematic reviews are achieved; discusses their advantages and limitations; identifies the particular challenges they face in the energy policy area; and assesses whether and to what extent they can usefully be applied to contemporary energy policy questions. The concept is illustrated with reference to a proposed review of evidence for a 'rebound effect' from improved energy efficiency. The paper concludes that systematic reviews may only be appropriate for a subset of energy policy questions and that research-funding priorities may need to change if they use is to become more widespread.
    Keywords: energy policy, evidence-based policy and practice, systematic reviews, research synthesis
    JEL: Q48
    Date: 2006–04–11
  2. By: Maximilian Auffhammer (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.
    Keywords: Forecasting, Asymmetric Loss, Energy Intensity, Energy Information Administration,
    Date: 2005–12–16
  3. By: Matteo Manera (University of Milan-Bicocca and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Alessandro Cologni (IMT Institute for Advanced Studies)
    Abstract: In this paper we specify and estimate different Markov-switching (MS) regime autoregressive models. The empirical performance of the univariate MS models used to describe the switches between different economic regimes for the G-7 countries is in general not satisfactory. We extend these models to verify if the inclusion of asymmetric oil shocks as an exogenous variable improves the ability of each specification to identify the different phases of the business cycle for each country under scrutiny. Following the wide literature on this topic, we have considered six different definitions of oil shocks: oil price changes, asymmetric transformations of oil price changes, oil price volatility, and oil supply conditions. We measure the persistence of each economic regime, as well as the ability of each MS model to detect the business cycle dates as described by widely acknowledged statistical institutions. Our empirical findings can be summarized as follows. First, the null hypothesis of linearity against the alternative of a MS specification is always rejected by the data. This suggests that regime-dependent models should be used if a researcher is interested in obtaining statistically adequate representations of the output growth process. Second, three-regime MS models typically outperform the corresponding two-regime specifications in describing the business cycle features for each country. Third, the introduction of different oil shock specifications is never rejected. Fourth, positive oil price changes, net oil price increases and oil price volatility are the oil shock definitions which contribute to a better description of the impact of oil on output growth. Finally, models with exogenous oil variables generally outperform the corresponding univariate specifications which exclude oil from the analysis.
    Keywords: Oil shocks, Output growth, Markov-switching models
    JEL: E31 E32 E52 Q41
    Date: 2006–02
  4. By: Sadek Boussena (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II] - []); Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II] - [])
    Abstract: Les réformes des années 1990, centrées sur des programmes de privatisation, ont structuré l'industrie pétrolière russe autour de quelques grandes compagnies privées nationales. Cette organisation est aujourd'hui remise en cause par le gouvernement russe qui entend réaffirmer la présence de l'Etat et impulser une nouvelle logique de développement au secteur des hydrocarbures. En premier lieu, il vise à inciter les acteurs privés à relancer l'exploration. En deuxième lieu, il s'agit de mettre le secteur des hydrocarbures au service de la croissance économique, ce qui induit une redistribution du partage de la rente. Enfin, et c'est un élément nouveau, le gouvernement tente de mettre la puissance pétrolière de la Russie au service de sa politique internationale. L'enjeu est la définition d'un nouveau modèle organisationnel de l'industrie pétrolière russe où coexistent différentes formes de propriété.
    Keywords: industrie pétrolière ; Russie ; réforme : privatisation
    Date: 2006–04–25
  5. By: Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II] - [])
    Abstract: Analyse de l'approvisionnement en hydrocarbures de l'Union européenne et de l'Asie à partir de la Russie et de la Caspienne (réserves, production, voies de gazoducs et d'oléoducs). Mise en perspective de la concurrence possible entre la Caspienne et la Russie.
    Keywords: exportation ; gaz naturel ; pétrole ; Russie ; approvisionnement ; Union européenne ; Asie ; transport
    Date: 2006–04–26
  6. By: Frédéric Marty (IDEFI - Institut de droit et d'économie de la firme et de l'industrie - - [CNRS : FRE2814] - [Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis] - [])
    Abstract: Le propos de cet article tient à l'analyse du modèle économique mis en place par la firme Enron et dans un questionnement quant à son rôle dans la crise de l'électricité californienne au début des années 2000.
    Keywords: Marchés de l'électricité, pouvoir de marché, incitations
    Date: 2006–04–24
  7. By: Andrea Bigano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Paul Sheehan (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)
    Abstract: Recent major spills on European coasts have highlighted the primary policy relevance for the EU of oil spills. This paper assesses the risks related to carrying oil to the EU along the route from the Russian Black Sea coast to Sicily, Italy (one of the most congested and strategically relevant European import routes). We develop a methodology based on Fault Tree Analysis, and we apply it to the most likely causes of an oil spill. We couple the resulting probabilities with data on expected spill size, types of oil carried and cleanup costs, to estimate expected costs for cleanup and loss of cargo. The route analysed appears to be a risky one; there is a “high” to “very high” risk of a spill along this route. The Turkish Straits turn out to be the major danger point; however, there is no obvious hierarchy amongst the other sites along the route.
    Keywords: Oil spills, Cleanup costs, Risk analysis
    JEL: Q32 Q51 Q52 Q53
    Date: 2006–02
  8. By: Karl van Biervliet (ECOLAS); Dirk Le Roy (ECOLAS); Paulo A.L.D. Nunes (University of Venice and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: This paper offers an economic assessment of the loss of non-use values resulting from different oil spill scenarios along the Belgian Coast. Estimation results show that if no oil spill prevention policy action is undertaken, a significant welfare loss may result. As a matter of fact, contingent valuation estimation results show such a welfare loss ranges from 120 million Euro to 606 million Euro, depending on the size and the frequency of the oil spill under consideration. Therefore, any investment program targeted at the prevention of oil spills, and its damage on the marine environment, can be clearly defended from a cost-benefit perspective as long as its cost is no higher than 120 million Euro.
    Keywords: Oil Spill, Prevention Scenario, Contingent Valuation, Cost Benefit Analysis
    JEL: Q51 Q53 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2006–03
  9. By: Stephan Alberth; Chris Hope
    Abstract: Presented research demonstrates the inclusion of endogenous technical change into the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model of climate change. The ‘experience curve’ or learning-by-doing concept, made popular by the Boston Consulting Group during the 1960’s provides a mechanism with which to describe cost reduction through experiential learning. The implementation of learning requires both a restructuring of the way costs are modelled as well as the inclusion of an explicit learning function with initial abatement costs and learning coefficients calibrated to historical renewable energy data. The discounted values for total abatement costs are calculated for both the standard PAGE2002 model without an explicit learning function and the modified PAGE2002 model. The results were found to be of a similar magnitude, partially due to the myopic effects of discounting, though the result was found to be highly sensitive to the learning rate used, which in our case was a conservative estimate.
    Keywords: Endogenous Technical Change, Learning Curves, Climate Change
    JEL: O13 Q55 Q56
    Date: 2006–04
  10. By: Stephan Alberth; Chris Hope
    Abstract: We consider the importance of Endogenous Technical Change (ETC) on the risk profiles for different abatement strategies using the PAGE2002 model with ETC. Three outcomes from this modelling research have significant impacts on the way we ‘optimise’ the greenhouse gas abatement path. Firstly, it was found that for most standard abatement paths there would be an initial "learning investment" required that would substantially reduce the unit costs of CO2 abatement as compared to a business as usual scenario. Secondly, optimising an abatement program where ETC has been included can lead to an increased risk profile during the time of widespread CO2 abatements due to the costs associated with learning. Finally, the inclusion of ETC leads to a slightly deferred optimised abatement path followed by a drastic abatement program that itself would seem highly impractical. Together, the results draw attention to the possibilities of uncovering uncertainty through proactive abatements.
    Keywords: Endogenous Technical Change, Optimal Abatement, Climate Change
    JEL: O13 Q55 Q56
    Date: 2006–04
  11. By: Michael Hoel (University of Oslo); Rolf Golombek (Frisch Centre)
    Abstract: We study an international climate agreement that assigns emission quotas to each participating country. Unlike the simplest models in the literature, we assume that abatement costs are affected by R&D activities undertaken in all firms in all countries, i.e. abatement technologies are endogenous. In line with the Kyoto agreement we assume that the international climate agreement does not include R&D policies. We show that for a second-best agreement, marginal costs of abatement should exceed the Pigovian level. Moreover, marginal costs of abatement differ across countries in the second-best quota agreement with heterogeneous countries. In other words, the second-best outcome cannot be achieved if emission quotas are tradable.
    Keywords: Climate Policy, International Climate Agreements, Emission Quotas, Technology Spillovers
    JEL: H23 O30 Q20 Q25 Q28
    Date: 2006–03
  12. By: Roberto Roson (Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia); Alvaro Calzadilla (EEE Programme at the Abdus Salam ICTP); Francesco Pauli (University of Padua)
    Abstract: We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, and a regional economic growth model, to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events, induced by the climate change. In particular, we first consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO oceanic oscillations and, subsequently, the implied variation on regional expected damages. We found that expected damages from extreme events are increasing in the United States, Europe and Russia, and Russia, and decreasing in energy exporting countries. Two economic implications are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in regional economic growth paths. We found that indirect short-term effects (variations in savings due to higher or lower likelihood of natural disasters) can have an impact on regional economics, whose order of magnitude is comparable to the one of direct damages. On the other hand, we highlight that higher vulnerability from extreme events translates into higher volatility in the economic growth path, and vice versa.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Extreme Events, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Precautionary Savings, Economic Growth
    JEL: D58 D91 Q54
    Date: 2006–03
  13. By: Giovanni Bella (University of Cagliari)
    Abstract: Is pollution a dirty word? To answer this question we develop an endogenous growth model à la Rebelo (1991) where dirtiness becomes a fundamental choice variable for the economy to grow. Conclusions to our analysis say that a positive sustainable economic growth is attainable only if polluting production activities are taken into account. Moreover, transitional dynamics points out that local stability and uniqueness of equilibria are also achieved.
    Keywords: Environmental quality, Endogenous economic growth, Pollution-augmenting technology
    JEL: O41 Q01 Q32
    Date: 2006–02
  14. By: Harald Winkler (Energy Research Centre - [] - [University of Cap Town] - []); Kevin Baumert (World Resources Institute - [World Resources Institute] - [] - []); Odile Blanchard (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II] - []); Sarah Burch (University of British Columbia - [] - [University of British Columbia] - []); John Robinson (University of British Columbia - [] - [University of British Columbia] - [])
    Abstract: Cet article s'intéresse aux déterminants de la capacité à atténuer le changement climatique. Ceux-ci ont été élaborés initialement dans un papier de Yohe puis dans le troisième rapport d'évaluation du GIEC. Après avoir revisité la définition de la capacité à atténuer le changement climatique, nous identifions trois groupes de facteurs influençant de façon croisée cette capacité : des facteurs économiques, technologiques et institutionnels. Au niveau économique, ce sont à la fois le revenu, le coût de réduction des émissions et le coût d'opportunité lié aux réductions qui forgent la capacité d'atténuation. Du côté technologique, c'est la capacité à absorber ou à développer des technologies peu émettrices de gaz à effet de serre qui est déterminante. Enfin, au niveau institutionnel, l'efficacité de la régulation gouvernementale, la transparence des règles de marché, une main d'œuvre qualifiée et une sensibilisation de la population sont des éléments clés. Notre analyse est menée à la fois qualitativement et quantitativement. Elle permet de montrer comment les facteurs influençant la capacité d'atténuation varient d'un pays à l'autre
    Keywords: changement climatique ; capacité d'atténuation ; politique environnementale
    Date: 2006–04–24
  15. By: Larry Karp (University of California, Berkeley and Giannini Foundation)
    Abstract: The use of a constant discount rate to study long-lived environmental problems such as global warming has two disadvantages: the prescribed policy is sensitive to the discount rate, and with moderate discount rates, large future damages have almost no effect on current decisions. Time-consistent quasi-hyperbolic discounting alleviates both of these modeling problems, and is a plausible description of how people think about the future. We analyze the time-consistent Markov Perfect equilibrium in a general model with a stock pollutant. The solution to the linear-quadratic specialization illustrates the role of hyperbolic discounting in a model of global warming.
    Keywords: stock pollutant, hyperbolic discounting, global warming, time consistency,
    Date: 2004–07–09
  16. By: Adrian Smith (SPRU, University of Sussex)
    Abstract: The environment movement often targets technology. It switches between enthusiasm for some technologies (like wind energy) and resistance to others (like nuclear power). And yet theory regarding the way social movements engage with technology is little developed. Environment groups are simply assumed to contribute to the 'selection pressures' under which technologies evolve. This paper seeks to develop theory by bridging a gap between social movement research and the sociology of technology. It will move between the two literatures and use examples to illustrate how the environment movement's enthusiasm and resistance to technologies penetrate their networks of development.
    Keywords: environment movement, resistance to technologies, sociology of technology
    JEL: Q55 Q58
    Date: 2006–04–11
  17. By: Jacques Garnier (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - - [CNRS : UMR6123] - [Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille I][Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II] - []); Jean-Benoît Zimmermann (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - [] - [Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II][Université de droit, d'économie et des sciences - Aix-Marseille III] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales])
    Abstract: L'industrie marseillaise tend aujourd'hui à s'organiser à l'échelle de sa métropole. Mais unetelle tendance n'a pas toujours été de soi. D'abord organisée autour de son port et dans l'articulation avec l'outre-mer et notamment l'empire colonial, le complexe industrialoportuaire ne connaissait pas de véritable hinterland et traduisait l'état d'esprit d'une ville enserrée dans ses collines et exclusivement tournée vers la mer. Avec les temps de crises, cette déconnexion de Marseille avec sa périphérie s'est retournée à son encontre, laissant une ville sombrer dans la crise économique et sociale et la paupérisation, tandis qu'autour d'elle le développement de nouvelles dynamiques économiques prenait l'allure d'une revanche et mobilisait les rivalités de tous ordres. Aujourd'hui, la ville centre bénéficie d'un retour en grâce ; porteuse d'une image renouvelée, elle n'est désormais plus boudée des Français ni des investisseurs. Forte de sa situation littorale, de sa culture urbaine et de son potentiel scientifique, elle se trouve en bonne position pour accueillir et développer des activités industrielles modernes orientées sur l'immatériel et la connaissance. Dès lors c'est toute la force d'un système métropolitain qui peut demain émerger et se construire, mettant en valeur les complémentarité d'un ensemble urbain et périurbain qui fonde sa richesse sur la variété de ses ressources. Mais encore faudra-t-il sans doute qu'une véritable volonté politique métropolitaine s'impose en lieu et place des vieux sectarismes et des méfiances réciproques.
    Keywords: Complexe industriel; District industriel; Industrie aéronautique; Industrie sidérurgique; Industrie pétrochimique; Raffinage pétrolier; Fos-Etang de Berre; Région; France
    Date: 2006–04–18

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