nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2005‒10‒04
five papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Imperial College, UK

  1. Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries By Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez; Marcelo Sánchez
  2. Why and when do spot prices of crude oil revert to futures price levels? By Mark W. French
  3. Quality of Service, Efficiency, and Scale in Network Industries: An Analysis of European Electricity Distribution By Christian Growitsch
  4. Analysis on Energy Development of China By Zhang Guoying; Zheng Pi-e
  5. Nonlinear Production, Abatement, Pollution and Materials Balance Reconsidered By Rüdiger Pethig

  1. By: Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez (CSEF-Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisiano (SA),Italy.); Marcelo Sánchez (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: This paper assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialised countries. Multivariate VAR analysis is carried out using both linear and non-linear models. The latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature, namely, the asymmetric, scaled and net specifications. We find evidence of a non-linear impact of oil prices on real GDP. In particular, oil price increases are found to have an impact on GDP growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but Japan. Moreover, the effect of oil shocks on GDP growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in our sample, with oil price increases affecting the UK negatively and Norway positively.
    Keywords: Macroeconomic fluctuations; Oil price shock; Non-linear models.
    JEL: E32 Q43
    Date: 2004–05
  2. By: Mark W. French
    Abstract: Recent studies of crude oil price formation emphasize the role of interest rates and convenience yield (the adjusted spot-futures spread), confirming that spot prices mean-revert and normally exceed discounted futures. However, these studies don't explain why such "backwardation" is normal. Also, models derived in these studies typically explain only about 1 percent of daily returns, suggesting other factors are important, too. In this paper, I specify a structural oil-market model that links returns to convenience yield, inventory news, and revisions of expected production cost (growth of which is related to backwardation). Although its predictive power is only a marginal improvement, the model fits the data far better. In addition, I find reversion of spot to futures prices only when backwardation is severe. Convenience yield behaves nonlinearly, but price response to convenience yield is also nonlinear. Equivalently, futures are informative about future spot prices only when spot prices substantially exceed futures.
    Date: 2005
  3. By: Christian Growitsch
    Abstract: Quality of service is of major economic significance in natural monopoly infrastructure industries and is increasingly addressed in regulatory schemes. However, this important aspect is generally not reflected in efficiency analysis of these industries. In this paper we present an efficiency analysis of electricity distribution networks using a sample of about 500 electricity distribution utilities from seven European countries. We apply the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) method on multi-output translog input distance function models to estimate cost and scale efficiency with and without incorporating quality of service. We show that introducing the quality dimension into the analysis affects estimated efficiency significantly. In contrast to previous research, smaller utilities seem to indicate lower technical efficiency when incorporating quality. We also show that incorporating quality of service does not alter scale economy measures. Our results emphasise that quality of service should be an integrated part of efficiency analysis and incentive regulation regimes, as well as in the economic review of market concentration in regulated natural monopolies.
    Date: 2005–07
  4. By: Zhang Guoying (school of manangement of Tianjin university); Zheng Pi-e (school of manangement of Tianjin university)
    Abstract: The paper introduces the Relationship between energy and economic development first£¬then through analyzing characters of energy consumption all over the world and the basic facts about China¡¯s energy resources, drawing the conclusion that the energy and resources of China is hardly able to meet demand,and puts forward the policy orientation for china¡¯s energy development accordingly. At last, points out the prospect of China¡¯s energy industry.
    JEL: E
    Date: 2005–09–22
  5. By: Rüdiger Pethig
    Abstract: In the environmental economics literature the standard approach of modeling nonlinear production and abatement processes is to treat waste emissions "simply as another factor of production" (Cropper and Oates 1992). That approach doesn't map the materials flow involved completely and hides, moreover, the exact links between production, residuals generation and abatement. This paper shows that production functions with emissions treated as inputs can be reconstructed as a subsystem of a comprehensive production-cum-abatement technology that is in line with the materials-balance principle. In a simple economy with full regard of the materials flow it also explores the consequences for allocative efficiency and efficiency-restoring taxation of multiple and interdependent residuals generated in the transformation processes of production, abatement and consumption. Finally, the paper demonstrates that efficiency may require setting the emissions tax rate above or below conventionally defined marginal abatement cost if the residual subject to abatement is not the only residual causing pollution.
    Keywords: residuals, abatement, pollution, materials balance
    JEL: Q50 Q52
    Date: 2005

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