nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2005‒09‒29
thirteen papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
Imperial College, UK

  1. Convergence of Electricity Wholesale Prices in Europe? : A Kalman Filter Approach By Georg Zachmann
  2. Is Irish Utility Regulation Failing Consumers? By Patrick Massey
  3. Irrationality in Consumers’ Switching Decisions: When More Firms May Mean Less Benefit By Chris M. Wilson; Catherine Waddams Price
  4. Understanding the impact of oil shocks By Luis Aguiar-Conraria; Yi Wen
  5. Russian International Corporate Investment in the Energy Sector By Kirby Faciane
  6. Investing in Energy Conversion Technologies - An Optimum Vintage Portfolio Selection Approach By Zon ,Adriaan ,van; Fuss ,Sabine
  7. Russian International Corporate Investment in the Oil and Gas Sectors By Kirby Faciane
  8. Energy as an Indicator of Modernisation in Latin America by 1925 By M. del Mar Rubio Varas; Mauricio Folchi
  9. Declining Discount Rates: Evidence from the UK By Ekaterini Panopoulou; B. Groom; P. Koundouri; Theologos Pantelidis
  10. Mapping Technological Trajectories as Patent Citation Networks. A Study on the History of Fuel Cell Research By Verspagen,Bart
  11. A Hotelling Model with a Ceiling on the Stock of Pollution By CHAKRAVORTY, Ujjayant; MAGNE, Bertrand; MOREAUX, Michel
  12. Policy to Encourage Carbon Sequestration in Plantation Forests By Suzi Kerr; Emma Brunton; Ralph Chapman
  13. The likely regional impacts of an agricultural emissions policy in New Zealand: Preliminary analysis By Isabelle Sin; Emma Brunton; Joanna Hendy; Suzi Kerr

  1. By: Georg Zachmann
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp512&r=ene
  2. By: Patrick Massey (Compecon Limited)
    Abstract: Over the past decade the energy and communications markets in Ireland, which were traditionally the preserve of State owned monopolies, have been opened up to competition to some extent, largely as a result of EU legislation. This has resulted in changes in the regulatory environment and the establishment of independent regulatory agencies for these industries. The present paper analyses the impact of these changes. It argues that competition, wherever it is possible, is superior to regulation. The paper suggests that policy to date has paid too little attention to measures necessary to promote greater competition and that regulation has failed to protect consumers. The paper concludes that active measures are necessary to promote greater competition in gas, electricity and postal services and that these need to be combined with reforms of the existing regulatory regime.
    Date: 2004–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n1451104&r=ene
  3. By: Chris M. Wilson (University of East Anglia); Catherine Waddams Price (University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: We report evidence of three types of consumer switching decision errors within the UK electricity market. We identify consumers who do not switch despite substantial available savings, consumers who switch from a cheaper to a more expensive supplier and consumers who switch to a cheaper, but not the cheapest available supplier. Moreover, we find that consumers make more efficient decisions in markets with fewer competitors. This finding is consistent with theories of consumer confusion and “information-overload” rather than other “rational” explanations of consumer mistakes such as perceived differences in firm quality or uncertainty over consumers’ own demand.
    Keywords: Consumer choice, Switching costs, Behavioural IO
    JEL: L00 D12
    Date: 2005–09–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0509010&r=ene
  4. By: Luis Aguiar-Conraria; Yi Wen
    Abstract: This paper provides new empirical evidence on and theoretical support for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature and is further confirmed in this paper, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession in 1974-75 and the strong revival in 1976-78 based on the oil price movements in that period. This paper argues that a missing multiplier-accelerator mechanism from standard models may hold the key. This multiplier-accelerator mechanism not only exacerbated the impact of the oil shocks in 1973-74 but also helped create the temporary recovery in 1976-78. This paper derives the missing multiplier-accelerator mechanism from externalities in general equilibrium. Our calibrated model can explain both the recession in 1974-75 and the revival in 1976-78.
    Keywords: Petroleum industry and trade ; Prices
    Date: 2005
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-042&r=ene
  5. By: Kirby Faciane
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the multinational operations of the largest Russian business units within major economic sectors and analyzes the following: the driving forces behind the Russian companies’ internationalization; international locations of Russian capital outflow; dominant industries within Russian international corporate activities; and the main operational modes.
    Keywords: russia; russian investment; foreign direct investment; international corporate investment; international investment; capital budgeting; capital spending; market expenditures; kirby faciane; investment model; investment horizon; energy sector; energy investments
    JEL: G G0 G1 G00 G10 G12 G11 G15 G19 G20 G29 G24 G3 G30 G39 G31 G32 E E0 E1
    Date: 2005–09–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0509014&r=ene
  6. By: Zon ,Adriaan ,van; Fuss ,Sabine (MERIT)
    Abstract: The methods by which fuels can be converted into electricity all belong to different “technology families”: the “gas-fired-turbine-family”, the “coal-fired-turbine-family”, etc. Each family consists of different generations of similar technologies, as in a vintage model. Within a family, the latest generation embodies the most recent level and type of knowledge, becoming more and more outdated as new generations arrive. Producers face the problem how to compose their portfolio of families to minimize risk-adjusted costs of investment and production under a given demand constraint. Risk emanates from a number of uncertainties, such as volatile fuel prices and uncertain (prospects of) technological change. The paper presents a model capturing these features by integrating elements from financial Optimum Portfolio Theory (OPT) in a vintage capital investment framework. We find that the cumulative nature of embodied technical change gives rise to investment responses to (changes in) uncertainty that are in between the ‘standard’ results of OPT and Real Option Theory.
    Keywords: economics of technology ;
    Date: 2005
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:umamer:2005023&r=ene
  7. By: Kirby Faciane
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the multinational operations of the largest Russian business units within major economic sectors and analyzes the following: the driving forces behind the Russian companies’ internationalization; international locations of Russian capital outflow; dominant industries within Russian international corporate activities; and the main operational modes.
    Keywords: oil; gas; gasoline; petrol; petroleum; russia; russian investment; foreign direct investment; international corporate investment; international investment; capital budgeting; capital spending; market expenditures; kirby faciane; investment model; investment horizon; oil sector; oil and gas investments; gasoline; import; imports; exports; export; crude oil; Yukos;
    JEL: G G0 G1 G00 G10 G12 G11 G15 G19 G20 G29 G24 G3 G30 G39 G31 G32 E E0 E1
    Date: 2005–09–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0509017&r=ene
  8. By: M. del Mar Rubio Varas; Mauricio Folchi
    Abstract: In absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin American economies beyond the 1930s, this paper presents an estimate of the apparent consumption per head of coal and petroleum for 25 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for the year 1925, doubling the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previously available. Energy consumption is then used as an indicator of economic modernisation. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis of modernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts are available in Latin America.
    Keywords: Energy consumption, modernisation, Latin America, petroleum, coal
    JEL: N16 N76 Q43 O13
    Date: 2005–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:868&r=ene
  9. By: Ekaterini Panopoulou (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus and Department of Economics, Maynooth); B. Groom (Department of Economics, University College London, UK.); P. Koundouri (Department of Economics, University of Reading, UK and Department of Economics, UCL, UK); Theologos Pantelidis (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece.)
    Abstract: We estimate schedules of declining discount rates for cost benefit analysis in the UK. We highlight the importance of model selection for this task and hence for the evaluation of long-term investments, namely climate change prevention and nuclear build.
    Keywords: long-run discounting, state-space models,regime-switching models, climate change policy,nuclear build
    JEL: C13 C53 Q2
    Date: 2005–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n1470105&r=ene
  10. By: Verspagen,Bart (MERIT)
    Abstract: Technological change is argued to be taking place along ordered and selective pat-terns, shaped jointly by technological and scientific principles, and economic and other societal factors. Historical, descriptive analysis is often used to analyze these ''trajectories''. Recently, quantitative methods have been proposed to map these tra-jectories. It is argued that such methods have, so far, not been able to illuminate the engineering side of technological trajectories. In order to fill this gap, a methodology proposed by Hummon and Doreian (1989) is used and extended to undertake a cita-tion analysis of patents in the field of fuel cells.
    Keywords: research and development ;
    Date: 2005
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:umamer:2005019&r=ene
  11. By: CHAKRAVORTY, Ujjayant; MAGNE, Bertrand; MOREAUX, Michel
    JEL: Q12 Q32 Q41
    Date: 2005–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:1165&r=ene
  12. By: Suzi Kerr (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research); Emma Brunton (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research); Ralph Chapman (Maarama Consulting Ltd)
    Abstract: Carbon sequestration in plantation forests provides the main means by which New Zealand will meet its international climate change obligations in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). However, without active policy, forests are unlikely to contribute as much in subsequent commitment periods. This research paper provides the background for examining policy measures for encouraging carbon sequestration in plantation forests in New Zealand. Part I focuses on providing factual information and positive analysis of: key domestic and international regulations; information on New Zealand forests, the forestry industry and forest profitability; discussion of land-use decision making, including the central question of what influences conversion of farmland to forestry; and forest carbon ecology. Part II moves on to normative analysis of policy design. It discusses how including considerations of the value of carbon sequestration and storage changes optimal land-use behaviour, and outlines key issues that need to be addressed when developing a policy to encourage sequestration and storage in a pragmatic way. Finally, the paper identifies a number of key areas where we need more information before we can make well- informed choices about policy design. Future work will endeavour to identify and evaluate policies that would effectively encourage sequestration.
    Keywords: climate, forest, carbon sequestration, policy, New Zealand, Kyoto
    JEL: Q25 Q28
    Date: 2005–09–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0509009&r=ene
  13. By: Isabelle Sin (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research); Emma Brunton (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research); Joanna Hendy (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research); Suzi Kerr (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research)
    Abstract: Hendy and Kerr (2005b) find that an emissions charge on agricultural methane and nitrous oxide of $25 per tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent would be likely to reduce New Zealand’s net land-use related emissions for commitment period one in the order of 3%, with full accounting. The costs per farmer and as a percentage of profit would be very high. This paper considers the regional impacts of such a policy in New Zealand by allocating the emission charge across space according to the location of animals. We then combine our emissions charge information with data on the socio-economic characteristics of the affected areas. Obviously rural areas are heavily affected. In many respects, for example median income, ethnic mix, and percentage of working people with a university degree, the rural areas most affected have very similar socio-economic characteristics to other parts of rural New Zealand. Only in two ways do they appear to differ. Our findings indicate that areas with high emission costs tend to have high employment rates, but that they also have a disproportionately high number of unqualified people.
    Keywords: climate change, land use, social impacts, methane, nitrous oxide, dairy, sheep, beef, distribution of costs, regional
    JEL: Q25 Q28 R14
    Date: 2005–09–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0509010&r=ene

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