|
on Efficiency and Productivity |
| By: | Cirera, Xavi; Comin, Diego; Cruz, Marcio |
| Abstract: | This paper examines technology sophistication in establishments. To comprehensively measure technology sophistication, we create a grid that covers key business functions and the technologies used to conduct them. Analyzing data from over 21, 000 establishments in 15 countries, we find that the most widely used technology is usually not the most sophisticated available in the business function. There is significant variation in technology sophistication across and within countries, explaining 31% of productivity dispersion and over half of the agricultural productivity gap. The sophistication of widely used technologies is more relevant for productivity than the most advanced technologies. More sophisticated technologies are appropriate for both developed and developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Productivity |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19865 |
| By: | Seo, Gangcheol; Paudel, Krishna P.; Nelson, Kelly |
| Abstract: | This study examines long-run convergence in U.S. state-level agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and investigates the role of patent-based technological knowledge in explaining persistent productivity differences across states. Using annual agricultural TFP data for 48 contiguous U.S. states from 1960 to 2015, we assess convergence dynamics through σ-convergence tests and the club convergence approach proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007). We then use a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) panel framework to examine whether patent-based knowledge stocks are associated with state-level agricultural TFP. Patent stocks are constructed for six agricultural technology subsectors under alternative assumptions regarding knowledge depreciation and lag structures. The results indicate that U.S. agricultural TFP does not converge toward a common steady state but instead exhibits multiple convergence clubs, suggesting persistent heterogeneity in long-run productivity paths across states. Patent-based knowledge accumulation also displays substantial sectoral heterogeneity. Plants, research tools, animal health, and machinery patent stocks are positively associated with agricultural TFP across most specifications, whereas fertilizer-related patent stocks are negatively associated. These patterns remain broadly robust across alternative constructions of the patent stock. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of technological heterogeneity in long-run agricultural productivity and suggest that accumulated patent-based technological knowledge is associated with agricultural productivity in distinct ways across innovation sectors. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404391 |
| By: | Hoekman, Bernard; Sanfilippo, Marco; Santi, Filippo; Ticku, Rohit |
| Abstract: | Public procurement in developing countries accounts for approximately 13% of GDP, offering a significant market opportunity for domestic firms, especially those facing demand constraints. This paper explores the impact of selling to government entities on firm performance in Uganda, leveraging detailed administrative data and an event study methodology that corrects for firm self-selection and heterogeneity in the timing of the treatment. The results reveal that while firms increase their total sales after entering government contracts, they do not see improvements in productivity (measured by value added per worker). Moreover, sales to non-government customers drop sharply. This reallocation effect is persistent. The effect is not observed when firms sell to large private-sector buyers. Drawing on an original survey of firms engaged in public procurement, we highlight potential drivers of these dynamics, including capacity constraints and profitability differences between public and private sector sales |
| Keywords: | Public procurement; Firm performance |
| JEL: | E62 H32 D22 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19673 |
| By: | Anton Korinek; Patrick McKelvey |
| Abstract: | We construct a macroeconomic estimate of total AI production for the United States, combining inference and R&D/training activities and applying quality adjustments based on the evolution of API prices at fixed performance levels and the pace of algorithmic progress. We estimate that nominal AI compute spending grew over 140% per year each in 2024 and 2025, raw compute capacity grew over 200% per year, and quality-adjusted AI output grew over 2000% per year. These growth rates reflect three compounding forces: expanding data-center capacity, continued improvements in chip efficiency, and rapid algorithmic progress. We then employ our estimates to develop a nascent framework for “AI GDP” that tracks the AI economy as a coherent whole rather than dispersed across standard industry classifications. Quality-adjusted AI GDP grew by more than 2500% each in 2024 and 2025. Our measures complement traditional national accounts by providing visibility into a fast-moving sector whose activity is difficult to isolate in existing statistics, and they may serve as building blocks for satellite accounts that track AI’s growing role in the economy. |
| Keywords: | Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity |
| JEL: | C43 E01 E22 E31 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:26-20 |
| By: | Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a unified framework that resolves recent puzzles in U.S. productivity growth that we show are interrelated. First, why was productivity growth in the 2010-19 decade the slowest of any decade in U.S. history? Second, why did the cyclicality of productivity growth change from procyclical in 1950-85 to acyclical in 1986-2006 and then back to procyclical in 2010-19? Third, why was productivity growth strongly countercyclical in the recessions of 2008-09 and 2020? The fundamental dynamic driving cyclical productivity fluctuations originates in the gradual adjustment of hours of work to demand-driven output fluctuations due to the costs of hiring and firing labor. Since productivity growth is a residual, equal to output growth less hours growth, productivity growth immediately jumps in response to an upward output movement because hours are slow to respond; then productivity growth falls back in subsequent quarters as hours complete their adjustment. We are able to explain the temporary 1986-2006 disappearance of procyclicality as the result of changes in the standard deviation and serial correlation of output changes. We explain countercyclical productivity surges in 2008-09 and 2020 by showing that business firms in those two episodes overreacted with “excess layoffs, †cutting hours in response to the sharp output decline with a much higher elasticity than normal. By coupling these excess layoffs with a post-recession rehiring effect that gradually unwound the excess layoffs, our regression analysis explains why productivity growth on average was so slow in 2010-19. If this recession/rehiring effect had not occurred, productivity growth in the 2010-19 decade would have been 1.9 percent per year instead of 1.1 percent, suggesting that concern about U.S. “secular stagnation†has been overstated. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Growth; Secular stagnation |
| JEL: | E32 J24 J63 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19569 |
| By: | De Loecker, Jan; Fuss, Catherine; Quiller-Doust, Nathan; Treuren, Leonard |
| Abstract: | We separately observe variable input expenditure and expenditure on fixed inputs in novel firm-level data covering the Belgian manufacturing sector over the last decades. This permits a deeper investigation of two potential drivers of the globally observed widening gap between firms’ revenue and variable input expenditure: technology and market power. Across the board, cost structures have become less reliant on variable input expenditure over time, while expenditure on fixed inputs or overhead costs has in- creased in prominence. We relate these changes in firms’ cost structures to performance measures and document that markups and gross profit rates increase substantially as the role of variable costs in production diminishes. Profit rates net of fixed input ex- penditure also increase, but by substantially less than gross profit rates. Our results suggest that technological change can explain a considerable portion of the widening gap between revenue and variable input expenditure, but that markups increase by more than necessary to break even, and that this phenomenon operates remarkably similarly across different firms and industries. |
| Keywords: | Markups; Technology |
| JEL: | D2 D4 L1 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19641 |
| By: | D'Amico, Leonardo; Glaeser, Edward; Gyourko, Joseph; Kerr, William; Ponzetto, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America. Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970 shows that nothing makes technological progress inherently impossible in construction. What stopped it? We present a model in which local land-use controls limit the size of building projects. This constraint reduces the equilibrium size of construction companies, reducing both scale economies and incentives to invest in innovation. Our model shows that, in a competitive industry, such inefficient reductions in firm size and technology investment are a distinctive consequence of restrictive project regulation, while classic regulatory barriers to entry increase firm size. The model is consistent with an extensive series of key facts about the nature of the construction sector. The post-1970 productivity decline coincides with increases in our best proxies for land-use regulation. The size of development projects is small today and has declined over time. The size of construction firms is also quite small, especially relative to other goods-producing firms, and smaller builders are less productive. Areas with stricter land use regulation have particularly small and unproductive construction establishments. Patenting activity in construction stagnated and diverged from other sectors. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that, if half of the observed link between establishment size and productivity is causal, America’s residential construction firms would be approximately 60% more productive if their size distribution matched that of manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | Construction industry; Firm productivity; Land-use regulation; Housing |
| JEL: | D24 E23 L74 L78 R31 R38 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19711 |
| By: | Klein, Alexander; Meissner, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between tariffs and labor productivity in US manufacturing between 1870 and 1909. Using highly dis-aggregated tariff data, state-industry data for the manufacturing sector, and a novel identification strategy, results show that tariffs reduced labor productivity. Tariffs also generally reduced the average size of establishments within an industry but raised output prices, value-added, gross output, employment, and the number of establishments. We also find evidence of heterogeneity in the association between tariffs and value added, gross output, employment, and establishments across groups of industries. We conclude that tariffs may have reduced labor productivity in manufacturing by weakening import competition and by inducing entry of smaller, less productive domestic firms. Our research also reveals that lobbying by powerful and productive industries may have been at play. The era’s high tariffs are unlikely to have helped the US become a globally competitive manufacturer. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs; Labor productivity |
| JEL: | F13 F15 N11 O14 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19619 |
| By: | Martin, Josh; Taylor, Cliodhna |
| Abstract: | We construct labour productivity estimates for 184 industries spanning the entire UK economy – more than double the granularity available from official datasets. To do so, we use only publicly available data sources and transparent and reproducible methods in order to enable our estimates to be used, adapted and updated by other researchers. Our methods ensure a high degree of consistency with official productivity statistics and conformity with National Accounts concepts. While this level of granularity presents potential data quality concerns, the trade-off between granularity and quality in our estimates is more favourable than that inherent in official productivity statistics. We also include detailed discussion of measurement issues pertinent to UK productivity statistics. Two applications of our estimates are included: one providing new insights on the distribution of productivity across the UK economy, and one demonstrating the use for policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | labour productivity; economic measurement; detailed industries |
| JEL: | E01 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoet:escoe-tr-32 |
| By: | Bai, Chengxi; Liu, Naixi; Dai, Wenrui |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, the number of natural villages in China has declined from approximately 3.5 million to about 2.3 million. Using nationwide 30-meter resolution satellite remote sensing data combined with county-level panel data for more than 2, 700 counties from 2000 to 2023, this study examines the relationship between village merging and agricultural productivity growth. The results reveal a robust and positive association between the intensity of village merging and agricultural total factor productivity, and this relationship remains stable across a wide range of robustness checks. The positive effect is also observed in the context of three major policy interventions that significantly accelerated village merging: the Urban-Rural Construction Land Linkage Policy, Poverty Alleviation Relocation, and Village Merging Pilot programs. Mechanism analysis shows that village merging enhances agricultural productivity mainly by optimizing the spatial layout of agricultural facility land to support contiguous large-scale operations, promoting the specialization of agricultural producers, and improving human capital. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the magnitude of these effects varies across different stages of economic development, agricultural industrial structures, and geographic regions. Overall, this study provides new insights into China’s development experience in alleviating land misallocation and improving agricultural productivity in the contemporary era. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404753 |
| By: | Kurniady, Alvin |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new production function for economies, in which deployed self-learning AI have become meaningful determinant of total output. Building on the Mankiw-Romer-Weil (MRW) framework, the production function separates technologies into deployed non-self-learning technologies and deployed self-learning technologies. Furthermore, the production function separates physical capital, labor forces and human capital based on AI-specificity. The production function is the following: Y(t) = (T(t) [S(t) D(t)] (t)) (KAI(t) 1 KNAI(t) 2) (LAI(t) 1 LNAI(t) 2) (HAI(t) 1 HNAI(t) 2). The most unique feature of the production function is the exponent (t) because (t) is the only exponent whose value is determined by its base; this is the unique recursive feature of the production function. Self-learning AI, which determine the value of (t), also determine whether the economy has production function with decreasing, constant or increasing returns to scale. Mathematical proof shows that, in the proposed production function, singularity is impossible. Empirical evidences from 26 high-income countries show that the proposed production function is very useful in cross-countries analysis; the proposed production function is much more accurate than MRW production function. While MRW production function produces 0.49 correlation among 22 OECD countries in year 1985, the proposed production function produces 0.96 correlation among 26 high-income countries in year 2024. Simulations show that self-learning AI can transition an economy from having production function with decreasing returns to scale to having production function with increasing returns to scale. |
| Keywords: | Self-learning Artificial Intelligence; Production function |
| JEL: | O41 |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128133 |
| By: | Alberto G. Musalem |
| Abstract: | St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem delivered a speech titled "Monetary Policy and Productivity: Promoting Growth vs. Stabilizing Prices, " in which he discussed the possibility that monetary policy doesn't merely respond to productivity growth but helps determine it. He examined pros and cons of pursuing easier-than-warranted monetary policy in an effort to foster productivity growth. He spoke at the Centro de Debate de Políticas Públicas (Center for Public Policy Debate) in São Paulo, Brazil. Following his speech, he participated in a Q&A moderated by Mário Mesquita. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence (AI); productivity; monetary policy easing |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlps:103613 |
| By: | Mertens, Matthias; Schoefer, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | We document and dissect a new stylized fact about firm growth: the shift from labor to intermediate inputs. This shift occurs in input quantities, cost and output shares, and output elasticities. We establish this fact using German firm-level data and replicate it in administrative firm data from 11 additional countries. We also document these patterns in micro-aggregated industry data for 20 European countries (and, with respect to industry cost shares, for the US). We rationalize this novel regularity within a parsimonious model featuring (i) an elasticity of substitution between intermediates and labor that exceeds unity, and (ii) an increasing shadow price of labor relative to intermediates, due to monopsony power over labor or labor adjustment costs. The shift from labor to intermediates accounts for one half to one third of the decline in the labor share in growing firms (the remainder is due to wage markdowns and markups) and rationalizes most of the labor share decline in growing industries. |
| JEL: | J00 L00 E2 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19719 |
| By: | Gondauri, Davit; Mikautadze, Ekaterine |
| Abstract: | This study develops and empirically audits a cross-country panel-econometric framework for measuring how research productivity and academic intangible value become economically visible. Rather than treating academic output as a universal short-run GDP-growth multiplier, the study constructs a layered measurement architecture in which the Research Productivity Index (RPI), Academic Intangible Value Index (AIVI), and Academic Value Monetization Index (AVMI) distinguish research production, broader academic intangible value, and monetization-oriented academic capacity. Using an effective lagged estimation sample of 464 economy-year observations across 39 economies for 2011-2022, the analysis combines pooled OLS, fixed-effects and two-way fixed-effects models, lag structures, dynamic and directional checks, transmission-channel regressions, component-exclusion designs, threshold and heterogeneity tests, robustness checks, advanced econometric extensions, level-output models, and GDP-equivalent monetization algorithms. The results support a disciplined and conditional interpretation: the direct full-sample AVMI effect on GDP per capita growth is positive but statistically imprecise, while stronger evidence appears through observable monetization channels. AVMI is most clearly associated with high-technology export outcomes, and productivity growth provides a strong transmission link to GDP per capita growth. The study therefore reframes academic value as an auditable intangible economic asset whose monetization depends on innovation output, technology-market participation, absorptive capacity, productivity transmission, and country-specific regimes. By translating empirical evidence into gross and net monetized academic value, Academic Economic Value Added (AEVA), conversion ratios, counterfactual scenarios, and policy-dashboard diagnostics, the study contributes a reproducible framework for evaluating academic value without overstating causality or reducing knowledge systems to a single coefficient. |
| Keywords: | academic value monetization, research productivity, intangible academic value, knowledge economy, economic growth, high-technology exports, panel econometrics |
| JEL: | O32 O33 O47 C23 C43 I23 E22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341767 |
| By: | Vakil, Mohd Kamil; Mukherjee, Deep; Almeida, Alexandre Nunes |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the economic impact of Zero Tillage (ZT) adoption on wheat production in Bihar, a key agricultural region in India’s Indo-Gangetic Plains. Zero Tillage practices, which eliminate plowing and enable direct seeding, hold promise for reducing production costs and enhancing resilience amid growing challenges such as climate variability, soil degradation, and labor scarcity. Despite its potential, ZT adoption in Bihar has been uneven, hindered by limited access to equipment and uncertainty regarding its performance. Using panel data from 961 wheat-producing households across four agricultural seasons, the study applies a difference-in-differences approach that accounts for staggered adoption and time-varying treatment effects. The results show that the timing of adoption significantly influences outcomes: early adopters experienced short-term productivity gains and reduced input use, but these effects weakened in years with adverse weather. In contrast, later adopters demonstrated more consistent improvements in productivity and efficiency, likely reflecting learning effects and better environmental alignment. Robustness checks using placebo tests reinforce the credibility of the findings. This research provides valuable insights for policies aimed at promoting sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture in vulnerable regions of South Asia. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404711 |
| By: | Fiorini, Matteo; Hoekman, Bernard; Quinn, Dennis |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between manufacturing sector productivity and two new measures proxying for barriers to trade in services – restrictions affecting payment for cross-border imports of services and receipts for inward investment. Our services trade policy proxies span the 1965-2018 period, a much longer time span than extant services trade restrictiveness indicators, allowing analysis of the pre-hyper globalization period as well as the post-global financial crisis years that has been the focus of the services trade literature. We find that (i) lower restrictions on services trade and cross-border investment are associated with higher productivity in manufacturing industries that rely more intensely on service inputs; and (ii) that international services payment restrictions and inward investment restrictions are complements: manufacturing productivity is higher when both are simultaneously liberalized. The relationship between international payment restrictions and manufacturing sector performance is heterogenous, varying across time and countries with differing per capita incomes and governance quality. |
| Keywords: | Financial openness; Liberalization; Services input intensity; Services trade policy; Manufacturing productivity |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F21 F23 L60 L80 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19884 |
| By: | Bilgin, Nuriye Melisa; Faia, Ester; Ottaviano, Gianmarco |
| Abstract: | We examine how upstream firms’ technology adoption affects the performance and adoption decisions of downstream partners. Using business-to-business data with administrative records on advanced technology adoption, we find gains in productivity, performance, adoption probabilities of firms connected to the adopter, relatively to those that are not. Identification combines staggered event studies, balanced panels of pre-existing relationships, and recentering methods to address expected exposure within the network. Gains vary along firm size, centrality, technology quality, but do not systematically increase with input exposure, suggesting that knowledge spillovers may induce organizational adjustments. Adoption by competitors is associated with short-run negative effects. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19804 |
| By: | Gatopoulos, Georgios; Louka, Alexandros; Peppas, Konstantinos; Vettas, Nikolaos |
| Abstract: | We analyze the negative externalities of “zombie†firms on investment, employment, and productivity in the context of the Greek crisis, during which the share of zombie firms and non-performing business loans peaked at 20% and 50% respectively. Using a panel dataset by firm size and sector during 2002-2021, we find a strong correlation between non-performing business loans and zombie firms. Empirical analysis reveals that zombie firms impact on the economy in several ways: (1) healthy firms outperform zombies in investment, employment, and productivity; (2) high zombie firm density hinders investment growth among healthy firms; (3) healthy firms must increase productivity to survive in zombie-dense sectors; and (4) zombie firms’ capital concentration limits resource reallocation to more productive uses. Younger and larger firms generally perform better across key metrics, also during crisis conditions. Resolving zombie firms and non-performing loans can enhance resource allocation, both within and across sectors of economic activity, boosting growth in the medium to long term. |
| JEL: | G20 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19868 |
| By: | Batoul El Mawla (IPAG Business School); Jacques Igalens (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Nassima Selmane (Kedge BS - Kedge Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between ESG performance and financial performance during the COVID-19 pandemic, with particular attention to whether the strength of this relationship varies between crisis and non-crisis periods. Using a sample of 9261 unique firms headquartered in 44 countries, representing 72, 004 firm-year observations from 2010 to 2024, we find a stronger impact of ESG on financial performance during the pandemic. This positive and highly significant effect persists in the post-COVID period. Our results suggest that firms with stronger ESG performance exhibit greater resilience in times of crisis, with ESG engagement enhancing their ability to absorb both immediate shocks and longer-term adverse effects. ESG investments thus generate tangible benefits during the crisis period and contribute to sustained corporate resilience. These patterns may reflect heightened stakeholder solidarity and increased attention to ESG-related activities during the pandemic, effects that appear to extend beyond the crisis itself. We further estimate the marginal effects of ESG and its sub-dimensions on financial performance before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results indicate that the environmental and governance pillars exert stronger positive impacts during the crisis. Finally, we find stronger effects of ESG on financial performance for international companies, companies headquartered in developed countries, and consumer-focused companies. |
| Keywords: | ESG, Financial performance, Link intensity, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05703080 |
| By: | Emmanuel Dhyne; Amil Petrin; Frederic Warzynski |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the removal of price regulation was associated with changes in quality, efficiency, and welfare in the Belgian bread and cake industry. In the summer of 2004, price controls on bread were abolished. Because most firms in this industry produce both bread and cakes, the reform provides a useful setting in which to examine both direct changes in the deregulated market and spillovers to a related product line. We use detailed firm-product-level information on values and physical quantities to estimate product quality, technical efficiency, marginal costs, markups, and welfare. We find that deregulation was associated with substantial improvements in both quality and efficiency. Welfare increased through gains in consumer surplus and producer surplus, and the gains were not confined to bread. We also find evidence of spillovers to cake production, suggesting that deregulation encouraged technological upgrading that affected firms' broader production process. |
| Keywords: | multi product firms, efficiency, cost estimation, markups, spillovers, welfare |
| JEL: | L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12900 |
| By: | Heys, Richard |
| Abstract: | It is an age-old debate in statistics and measurement: when to provide a relatively large number of series of data (a dashboard) to permit the user to extract a common signal themselves, and when to create an artificial ‘single-number’ index through some process of amalgamation or aggregation such that a single index provides a simple (some say oversimplified) line of sight for users on whether matters have improved, worsened, or stayed constant. This paper reflects on recent experience in the UK, in relation to four specific instances: the construction of Gross and Net Inclusive Income, the development of Public Service Productivity estimates, the National Wellbeing Dashboard and the creation of the Health Index to consider what these examples teach us, to consider how we can move forward in terms of when composite indices are valuable / useful and when they are not. The paper concludes that a composite index has value when the weights used to derive it represent societal preferences or a societal reflection of value, and reviews alternative approaches which have been proposed or implemented. |
| Keywords: | Composite indices; well-being; public services; productivity; GDP |
| JEL: | C65 D78 E01 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2024-18 |
| By: | Nkhoma, Nomore; Chen, Xiaonan |
| Abstract: | Digital technologies are widely promoted as tools for raising smallholder agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet existing causal evidence is geographically fragmented and rarely accounts for high-dimensional selection into adoption, leaving the magnitude of productivity returns uncertain. This study estimates the causal effect of mobile phone ownership on both farm production value and maize yield using the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS5, 2019-2020) and a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework. We implement partially linear regression (PLR) and interactive regression models (IRM) with a suite of machine learners to flexibly control for high-dimensional confounders. Our stacked DML estimates indicate that mobile phone ownership raises log farm production value by 10.7 percent and log maize yield by 5.9 percent, with consistent results across learners and IV specifications using a leave-one-out community mobile ownership instrument. Pathway analysis identifies fertilizer use and formal credit access as the dominant mechanisms, with secondary contributions from ICT-based extension and improved seed adoption. Productivity gains are concentrated among youth-headed households and in the Centre and Southern regions, where complementary market infrastructure amplifies the returns to digital connectivity. We contribute new causal evidence that mobile phones function as productive agricultural infrastructure and document that the yield and production channels operate through distinct but reinforcing pathways. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404385 |