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on Efficiency and Productivity |
| By: | James M. Brand; Mert Demirer; Connor Finucane; Avner A. Kreps |
| Abstract: | Computing technologies have become critical inputs to production in the modern firm. However, there is little large-scale evidence on how efficiently firms use these technologies. In this paper, we study firm productivity and learning in cloud computing by leveraging CPU utilization data from over one billion virtual machines used by nearly 100, 000 firms. We find large and persistent heterogeneity in compute productivity both across and within firms, similar to canonical results in the literature. More productive firms respond better to demand fluctuations, show higher attentiveness to resource utilization, and use a wider variety of specialized machines. Notably, productivity is dynamic as firms learn to be more productive over time. New cloud adopters improve their productivity by 33% in their first year and reach the productivity level of experienced firms within four years. In our counterfactual calculations, we estimate that raising all firms to the 80th percentile of productivity would reduce aggregate electricity usage by 17%. |
| JEL: | D24 L86 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32938 |
| By: | Ilzetzki, Ethan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how firms adapt to demand shocks when facing capacity constraints. I show that increases in government purchases raise total factor productivity in quantity units at the production-line level. Productivity gains are concentrated in plants facing tighter capacity constraints, a phenomenon I call “learning by necessity”. Evidence is based on newly digitized archival data on USWorldWar II aircraft production. Shifts in demand across aircraft with different strategic roles provide an instrument for aircraft demand. I show that plants adapted to surging demand by improving production methods, outsourcing, and combating absenteeism, primarily when facing tighter capacity constraints. |
| JEL: | D20 D24 E62 L93 N12 N42 N62 |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124150 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Joseph Nnanna (Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates how enhancing remittances affects total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) empirical strategy is adopted for the purpose of the study and the engaged TFP dynamics are: TFP, real TFP, welfare TFP and real welfare TFP. Significant net effects are not apparent from enhancing remittances for TFP, real TFP growth and welfare TFP while positive net effects are apparent on real welfare TFP. The unexpected findings are elucidated and policy implications are discussed. This study has complemented the attendant literature by assessing how growing remittances influence dynamics of TFP in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Economic Output; Remitances; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E23 F24 F30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/021 |
| By: | Sabien Dobbelaere (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Michael D. König (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Andrin Spescha (ETH Zurich); Martin Wörter (ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | The fraction of R&D active firms decreased in Switzerland but increased in the Netherlands from 2000-2016. This paper examines reasons for this divergence and its impact on productivity growth. Our micro-data reveal R&D concentration among high-productivity firms in Switzerland. Innovation support sustains firms’ R&D activities in both countries. Our structural growth model identifies the impact of innovation, imitation and R&D costs on firms’ R&D decisions. R&D costs gained importance in Switzerland but not in the Netherlands, explaining the diverging R&D trends. Yet, counterfactual analyses show that policies should prioritize enhancing innovation and imitation success over cost reduction to boost productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | R&D, innovation, imitation, R&D costs, policy, productivity growth, traveling wave. |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230080 |
| By: | JaeBin Ahn (International Monetry Fund); Shekhar Aiyar (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Andrea F. Presbitero (International Monetry Fund) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides cross-country firm-level evidence on productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI), separately for greenfield FDI and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The granularity of bilateral sector-level FDI datasets allows for addressing possible endogeneity issues by applying a two-step approach whereby an exogenous FDI measure is constructed from a gravity-type regression of bilateral FDI flows. When looking at the effects of greenfield investments on firm labor productivity we find: i) positive intraindustry spillover effects for firms located in advanced countries, and ii) positive backward spillover effects for firms located in emerging and developing countries. These spillovers are driven entirely by FDI from advanced countries. The results from cross-border M&As are noisier, with weakly suggestive evidence for positive intra-industry spillovers in advanced countries but negative backward spillovers in emerging markets and developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; Cross-border M&A; Intra-industry spillovers; Backward spillovers; Forward spillovers |
| JEL: | F14 F21 F23 F60 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:172 |
| By: | Leonardo Gambacorta; Han Qiu; Shuo Shan; Daniel M Rees |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the effects of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) on labour productivity. In September 2023, Ant Group introduced CodeFuse, a large language model (LLM) designed to assist programmer teams with coding. While one group of programmers used it, other programmer teams were not informed about this LLM. Leveraging this event, we conducted a field experiment on these two groups of programmers. We identified employees who used CodeFuse as the treatment group and paired them with comparable employees in the control group, to assess the impact of AI on their productivity. Our findings indicate that the use of gen AI increased code output by more than 50%. However, productivity gains are statistically significant only among entry-level or junior staff, while the impact on more senior employees is less pronounced. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, productivity, field experiment, big tech |
| JEL: | D22 G31 R30 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1208 |
| By: | Hiroshi Inokuma (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroshi.inokuma@boj.or.jp)); Juan M. Sánchez (Senior Economic Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (E-mail: juan.m.sanchez@stls.frb.org)) |
| Abstract: | A slowdown in population growth causes a decline in business dynamism by increasing the share of old businesses. But how does it affect productivity growth? We answer this question by extending a standard business dynamics model to include endogenous productivity growth. Theoretically, the growth rate of the size of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" for determining the direction and magnitude of the impact of population growth on productivity growth. Quantitatively, this effect is significant across balanced growth paths for the United States and Japan. TFP growth in the United States falls by 0.3 percentage points because of the slowing in population growth between 1970 and 2060. The same driving force produces a significantly bigger response in Japan. Despite the significant long-run effect, we discover that changes in TFP growth are slow in reaction to population growth changes due to two short-run counterbalancing factors. |
| Keywords: | population growth, economic growth, firms dynamics, demographics, productivity, innovation, TFP |
| JEL: | E20 J11 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-09 |
| By: | Pascal Bougssere (UV-BF - Université virtuelle du Burkna Faso); Mamadou Toe (UTS - Université Thomas Sankara); Wend-Kuuni Raïssa Yerbanga (UTS - Université Thomas Sankara) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the influence of microcredit financing conditions on the financial performance of microenterprises in Burkina Faso. To this end, an analysis was carried out using a linear model for a sample of 129 microenterprises based on panel data from 2017 to 2019. The results obtained using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method show that the amount of microcredit and the repayment period have a positive impact on the financial performance of microenterprises. In contrast, the interest rate, proximity to microfinance institutions (MFIs) and the gender of the business owner negatively affect this performance. These results emphasize that in the Burkinabe context, proximity to MFIs does not guarantee the profitability of microenterprises, but rather benefits MFIs in repaying loans and expanding their portfolio. They also indicate that women-led micro-enterprises are less profitable because they have difficulties accessing credit, particularly due to a lack of collateral. Conversely, businesses run by educated owners have better financial performance. |
| Keywords: | Financing conditions, microcredit, microenterprise, financial performance |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04692353 |
| By: | Kristin F. Butcher; Deniz Civril; Sari Pekkala Kerr |
| Abstract: | We use the Longitudinal Business Database to examine the impact of state-level paid parental leave laws in California, New Jersey, and Rhode Island on firms. Our main estimation strategy uses multi-unit firms and compares within-firm changes in outcomes for establishments in treated and untreated states. We find that paid parental leave laws reduce employment in firms’ establishments in treated states. We investigate heterogeneity of the effects by pre-mandate share of workers in an industry that were women, and find that there is no systematic evidence that firms reduce employment more in industries with a higher share of women employees. |
| Keywords: | Paid Leave; Employment; Productivity |
| JEL: | H75 J13 J18 J21 J23 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:98827 |
| By: | Bašić, Zvonimir (University of Glasgow); Bortolotti, Stefania (University of Bologna); Salicath, Daniel (NAV Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration); Schmidt, Stefan (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Schneider, Sebastian O. (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Sutter, Matthias (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) |
| Abstract: | Incentives are supposed to increase effort, yet individuals react differently to incentives. We examine this heterogeneity by investigating how personal characteristics, preferences, and socio-economic background relate to incentives and performance in a real effort task. We analyze the performance of 1, 933 high-school students under a Fixed, Variable, or Tournament payment. Productivity and beliefs about relative performance, but hardly any personal characteristics, play a decisive role for performance when payment schemes are exogenously imposed. Only when given the choice to select the payment scheme, personality traits, economic preferences and socioeconomic background matter. Algorithmic assignment of payment schemes could improve performance, earnings, and utility, as we show. |
| Keywords: | effort, productivity, incentives, personality traits, preferences, socio-economic background, ability, heterogeneity, sorting, algorithm, lab-in-the-field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J24 J41 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17287 |
| By: | Jüppner, Marcus; Martin, Anika; Radke-Arden, Lucas |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency improvements are a key component on the road towards a carbonneutral economy. We identify the development of energy efficiency in the data and show that in recent decades it has increased at the aggregate level. At the sectoral level, however, the development in energy efficiency was highly heterogenous. We, then, analyse the effects of exogenous improvements in energy saving technology by means of Environmental Multi-Sector Model EMuSe. According to the model, sustained exogenous gains in energy saving technology increase output while, at the same time, reduce emissions energy use and energy intensity. Thereby, they attenuate the model-implied negative co-movement of output and emissions that results from the introduction or an intensified increase of an emission price schedule. However, if energy efficiency evolves as during the last decades and the emission price follows the currently intended schedule in the national and EU-wide emissions trading system, the model predicts that the emissions reduction by 2030 set by the German Federal Climate Change Act cannot be met. It additionally requires a higher emission price or larger (exogenous) energy efficiency gains. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:303049 |
| By: | Ali Merali |
| Abstract: | This paper derives 'scaling laws' -- empirical relationships between the amount of training compute used for a Large Language Model (LLM) and its performance -- for economic outcomes. In a preregistered experiment, 300 professional translators completed 1800 tasks with access to one of thirteen LLMs with differing model training compute sizes (or a control). Our results show that model scaling substantially raises productivity: for every 10x increase in model compute, translators completed tasks 12.3% quicker, received 0.18 s.d. higher grades, and earned 16.1% more per minute (including bonus payments). Further, the gains from model scaling are much higher for lower-skilled workers who gain a 4x larger improvement in task completion speed. These results imply further frontier model scaling -- which is currently estimated at 4x increase per year -- may have significant economic implications. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.02391 |