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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2025–06–09
25 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Lang, Jan Hannes; Rusnák, Marek; Herbst, Tobias |
| Abstract: | We examine the differential impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on bank lending rates in the euro area, using granular corporate loan-level data for the period 2019-2023. We find three results: First, consistent with the predictions of a stylized theoretical model of bank lending rates, monetary policy exerts an order of magnitude larger impact on lending rates than macroprudential policy. Second, the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission weakens when interest rates are close to or below zero. Third, the impact of macroprudential policy on lending rates increases when banks have limited capital headroom above capital buffer requirements, indicating cautious lending behavior when banks get close to regulatory constraints. Our findings have important policy implications for the joint conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy. JEL Classification: G21, G28, E43, E52 |
| Keywords: | bank capitalization, credit supply, interest rate pass-through, loan-level data |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253057 |
| By: | Karol Madoń |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of automation on workers' wages across 20 European countries between 2010–2018. Overall, it identifies a net positive effect of robot adoption on average wages at the sectoral level, especially pronounced among routine manual and nonroutine manual occupations. Importantly, these effects differ between countries- workers in Eastern European countries benefit twice as much from automation as their Western European counterparts. In Western European countries, higher average wages are associated with a decreasing share of routine workers. Results are robust to the exclusion of different capital measures, a battery of fixed effects, a change of instrument and an alternative measure of wages. |
| Keywords: | automation, job tasks, wages, technological change, Europe |
| JEL: | E24 J30 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp062024 |
| By: | Karol Madoń |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and workers’ wages across European countries. Overall, a positive relationship between exposure to AI and workers’ wages is found, however it differs considerably between workers and countries. High-skilled workers experience far higher wage premiums related to AI-related skills than middle- and low-skilled workers. Positive associations are concentrated among occupations moderately and highly exposed to AI (between the 6th and 9th decile of the exposure), and are weaker among the least exposed occupations. Returns of AI-related skills among high-skilled workers are even higher in Eastern European Countries compared to Western European countries. The heterogeneity likely originates from the difference in overall labour costs between country groups. The results presented in this study were obtained from the estimation of Mincerian wage regressions on the 2018 release of the EU Structure of Earning Survey. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, wages, technological change, Europe |
| JEL: | E24 J30 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp052024 |
| By: | Casas, Pablo; Christou, Tryfonas; Ferreira, Valeria; García Rodríguez, Abián; Lazarou, Nicholas Joseph; Pedauga, Luis Enrique; Rueda Cantuche, José Manuel; Bernard, Hannah; Volpe, Roberto; Neicu, Daniel; Salotti, Simone |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a macroeconomic evaluation of the impact of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, for which projects have been signed between 2021 and 1 July 2024, using the general equilibrium models RHOMOLO (Regional Holistic Model) and FIDELIO (Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output). The RHOMOLO model simulations suggest that the GDP gains in 2024 for the European Union would be up to 0.10% compared to GDP in 2020. The GDP gains are also expected to be significant in the medium term, with a cumulative GDP multiplier of more than 4, ten years after the end of the injection. The impact then gradually diminishes due to the obsolescence of the new knowledge and innovations generated by the policy intervention. The model results also show significant interregional spillovers in some, but not all, countries of the European Union. The FIDELIO model is used to disaggregate the impact of Horizon Europe funds on EU R&D expenditure and by sector, complementing the analysis of the RHOMOLO model. The results indicate that the positive effects on innovation gains, with business investment contributing to substantial GDP gains after the four-year intervention period, are mainly directed towards business R&D in manufacturing. Within manufacturing, the most important sub-sectors are the manufacture of machinery and equipment; computer, electronic and optical products; motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; and fabricated metal products. |
| Keywords: | Innovation policy, regional growth, industry impact, general equilibrium. |
| JEL: | C68 O30 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124687 |
| By: | Ferrando, Annalisa; Mulier, Klaas; Ongena, Steven; Delis, Manthos |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy can have contrasting effects on economic inequality via distinct channels. We examine the effect working via the credit channel, whereby monetary policy induces heterogeneous access to credit for business owners based on their wealth. Using unique data on business loan applications from small firms, we find that monetary expansions increase the bank’s likelihood to approve loan applications, particularly so for low-wealth entrepreneurs, translating to higher future income and wealth. Survey data from 19 euro area countries on loan applications by SMEs confirms these findings, and shows that the effect transmits especially via weakly capitalized and less liquid banks. JEL Classification: E51, E52, D63 |
| Keywords: | bank credit, business loans, entrepreneurs’ private wealth, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253058 |
| By: | Marques Anabela (European Commission - JRC); Lelli Francesco; Molica Francesco (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the spatial patterns associated with large-scale relocation events in the European Union. It examines both relocation within national borders and delocalisation across countries, using data from 2002 to 2023 at the NUTS2 level. The study draws on Eurofoundâs European Restructuring Monitor (ERM) dataset and applies Probit and Poisson regression models to identify key regional characteristics linked to these events. The findings suggest that cost efficiency plays a central role in driving both types of relocation. Regions with greater access to Cohesion Policy funds tend to experience fewer internal relocations, while a higher availability of State aid is associated with a lower incidence of cross-border delocalisations. The analysis also indicates that manufacturing sectors - particularly electronics, automotive, and computer industries - are most frequently affected, likely due to the nature of their production processes. Moreover, such relocation dynamics appear more dominant in more developed regions, possibly due to the cost advantages offered by less developed regions. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202503 |
| By: | Sebastien Bradley (School of Economics, Drexel University); Javier Florez (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Mario Larch (University of Bayreuth); Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Granular Trade and Production Activities (GRANTPA) database, which covers international trade flows for 3, 124 products and 247 countries over the period 1995-2019 as well as domestic trade flows and production data for the same number of products and years for a subset of 35 European economies. The original data sources that we employ are Eurostat's Comext and Prodcom databases. A gravity application delivers a large set of product-level 'home bias' estimates, which cannot be obtained without domestic trade flows. The average estimates on the standard gravity variables in our model (e.g., distance) are comparable to those from the related literature. However, our disaggregated estimates are very heterogeneous across products, thus highlighting the importance of our new database. |
| Keywords: | Gravity Data, Structural Gravity, Domestic Trade Flows, Disaggregated Gravity Estimates, Home Bias Estimates |
| JEL: | C81 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202527 |
| By: | Heather Grabbe; Bas Heerma van Voss; Camille Mehlbaum; Sjoerd van der Zwaag |
| Abstract: | This paper explores three restoration pathways, revealing trade-offs between equity, cost-efficiency, and carbon sequestration |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_10967 |
| By: | Sona Benecka |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel framework to the forecast of disaggregated producer prices using both machine learning techniques and traditional econometric models. Due to the complexity and diversity of pricing dynamics within the euro area, no single model consistently outperforms others across all sectors. This highlights the necessity for a tailored approach that leverages the strengths of various forecasting methods to effectively capture the unique characteristics of each sector. Our forecasting exercise has highlighted diverse pricing strategies linked to commodity prices, autoregressive behavior, or a mixture of both, with pipeline pressures being especially pertinent to final goods. Employing a mixture of a wide range of models has proven to be a successful strategy in managing the varied pricing behavior at the sectoral level. Notably, tree-based methods, like Random Forests or XGBoost, have shown significant efficacy in forecasting short-term PPI inflation across a number of sectors, especially when accounting for pipeline pressures. Moreover, newly proposed Hybrid ARMAX models proved to be a suitable alternative for sectors tightly linked to commodity prices. |
| Keywords: | Disaggregated producer prices, forecasting, inflation, machine learning |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 E17 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/2 |
| By: | Dreoni Ilda (European Commission - JRC); Serruys Hannes (European Commission - JRC); Manso Luis (European Commission - JRC); Tudo Jose; Amores Antonio F (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Consumption taxes are a crucial revenue source for EU Member States, yet they also potentially have non-negligible impact on income distribution. The EU's tax-benefit microsimulation model, EUROMOD, has recently been extended to simulate consumption taxes (CT) across all 27 EU countries allowing researchers and practitioners to examine carefully their design and assess trade-offs. The CT simulation uses consumption patterns derived from Household Budget Survey (HBS) microdata, which are imputed into EUROMOD's input data using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) microdata which contains detailed socio-demographic and socio-economic information. The imputation process employs a statistical matching procedure that joins HBS (the donor survey) with EU-SILC (the recipient survey) using a predictive mean matching method. Expenditure data are integrated into the recipient survey using a multi-stage procedure that involves the use of estimated probit and linear regression models combined with a distance-hot deck approach for the final observation mapping. This methodology offers enhanced results compared to traditional approaches such as only regression-based or distance-based. The imputation performance in distributional terms and the macro validation of the resulting datasets are thoroughly examined. We assess the impact of potential distortions from the statistical matching process by conducting a set of exploratory and comparative analyses, and also by using an administratively matched dataset for Czechia from 2019 to 2021. Our findings in this specific case indicate that, on average, the majority of imputed expenses are exactly the same when comparing the original HBS data with the matched SILC data that includes fitted expenditures. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202502 |
| By: | Foerster, Kai; Ryan, Ellen; Scheid, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first study of climate risk pricing in euro area commercial real estate markets. We pay particular attention to changes in risk pricing over time, as a sudden market shift may significantly amplify the financial stability and macroeconomic implications of these risks. We find evidence of investors applying a penalty to buildings exposed to physical risk and that this penalty has increased significantly over the 2007-2023 period we study, particularly for properties exposed to risks associated with climate change. This change in pricing appears to have occurred in an orderly manner, with no implications for liquidity in the market for high risk buildings. In contrast, while pricing of transition risk has also increased over the period studied, towards the end of our sample the market response to transition risk appears to be playing out via market liquidity. This indicates that older buildings - which are more exposed to transition risks - may already be at risk of becoming “stranded assets”. JEL Classification: R33, Q51, G2 |
| Keywords: | climate change, commercial real estate, financial stability |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253059 |
| By: | Ramona Coman; Aron Buzogány |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/376756 |
| By: | Hinz, Julian; Méjean, Isabelle; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | - Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. - If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the Chinese economies. The direct economic impact for Europe appears limited. - The expected rerouting of Chinese and U.S. exports to third countries is likely to intensify competition between European and Chinese producers in key markets. European consumers stand to benefit from lower prices. |
| Abstract: | - Mit dem KITE-Modell analysieren wir die wirtschaftlichen Kosten der Trump'schen Zollpolitik für Europa und untersuchen das Potenzial für Handelsumlenkungen aus China. - Sollte das aktuelle Zollregime bestehen bleiben, würde der Handel zwischen den USA und China drastisch zurückgehen - mit negativen Folgen vor allem für die US-amerikanische und chinesische Wirtschaft. Die direkten wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen auf Europa scheinen begrenzt zu sein. - Die erwartete Umlenkung chinesischer und US-amerikanischer Exporte in Drittländer dürfte den Wettbewerb zwischen europäischen und chinesischen Produzenten auf wichtigen Märkten verschärfen. Europäische Verbraucherinnen und Verbraucher könnten von niedrigeren Preisen profitieren. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs, trade policy, Zölle, Handelspolitik |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:317795 |
| By: | Kostarakos Ilias (European Commission - JRC); Marques Anabela (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the new module of the Territorial Economic Data viewer (TEDv) namely, the Industrial Module. The aim is to present the data sources and the methodological approach employed to generate the various dashboards included in the new module. Its usefulness is exhibited via an extensive analysis of the current states of the sectors and industrial ecosystems identified as the most prominent ones. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202502 |
| By: | Jaroslav Vlach (Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the financial dynamics, strategic growth, and innovation within the sugar production sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the period 2013-2022. It focuses on six countries-Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and analyzes 14 major sugar-producing companies using a combined methodological approach based on time-series trend analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Key financial metrics such as capital structure, working capital, operating revenue, profitability, and employment are examined to assess differences in performance across firms and countries. The research is framed by three central questions that investigate the interaction between company size, financial stability, national market context, and development potential. A major turning point for the sector-the abolition of the EU sugar quota system in autumn 2017-marked the beginning of a fully liberalized market environment, intensifying global competition and reshaping regional production strategies. The results indicate that larger firms tend to provide financial stability but exhibit limited growth trajectories, while smaller companies are more adaptable and often demonstrate stronger development potential. National differences are also significant: the Czech Republic and Poland emerge as dynamic and competitive markets; Austria and Germany reflect mature industries with constrained growth prospects; Hungary and Slovakia show financial challenges yet offer opportunities for development. By identifying structural trends and regional disparities, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of the post-quota sugar market. It offers relevant insights for policymakers and industry leaders aiming to balance financial health, innovation, and sustainability in order to ensure the sector's long-term competitiveness in a volatile global economy. |
| Keywords: | principal component analysis, dynamics of the sugar market, financial stability, company development, equity, Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | C38 G30 L66 Q13 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:01_2025 |
| By: | Grotefels, Susan; Evrard, Estelle; Hartz, Andrea; Krzymuski, Marcin; Sielker, Franziska; Zillmer, Sabine; Bockhorn, Britta |
| Abstract: | The Treaty on the Functioning of the EU promotes not only a common market but also economic, social and territorial cohesion and access to public services, including cross-border regions. Despite the objective of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU to promote, inter alia, cohesion in cross-border regions, administrative and legal obstacles still hinder the development of joint cross-border living areas, affecting 150 million EU citizens. To overcome these obstacles, the EU has introduced a regulation that establishes a facilitation tool to resolve legal and administrative obstacles in cross-border interactions. The adopted BRIDGEforEU regulation is characterised by its voluntary nature and process orientation, and cases can be halted even without a solution being found. This affects the regulation's effectiveness, which may be further weakened by its unclear scope, limited capacities and risks of duplication. Its success depends on clear governance, sufficient resources and a cooperative mindset at all levels. |
| Abstract: | Der Vertrag über die Arbeitsweise der Europäischen Union fördert nicht nur einen gemeinsamen Markt, sondern auch den wirtschaftlichen, sozialen und territorialen Zusammenhalt sowie den Zugang zu öffentlichen Dienstleistungen - einschließlich grenzüberschreitender Regionen. Obwohl der Vertrag unter anderem darauf abzielt, den Zusammenhalt in grenzüberschreitenden Regionen zu fördern, erschweren nach wie vor administrative und rechtliche Hürden die Entwicklung gemeinsamer grenzüberschreitender Lebensräume und beeinträchtigen das Leben von 150 Millionen EU-Bürgerinnen und -Bürgern. Um diese Hindernisse zu überwinden, hat die EU mit der BRIDGEforEU-Verordnung ein Instrument eingeführt, mit dem die Überwindung rechtlicher und administrativer Hindernisse bei grenzüberschreitenden Beziehungen erleichtert werden soll. Die verabschiedete BRIDGEforEU-Verordnung ist durch ihren freiwilligen Charakter und ihren prozessorientierten Ansatz gekennzeichnet; ein begonnener Prozess kann auch dann beendet werden, wenn keine Lösung erzielt wurde. Dies beeinträchtigt die Wirksamkeit der Verordnung, die zusätzlich durch ihren unscharfen Anwendungsbereich, begrenzte Kapazitäten und das Risiko von Doppelstrukturen geschwächt werden könnte. Ihr Erfolg hängt von klaren Governance-Strukturen, ausreichenden Ressourcen und einer kooperativen Haltung auf allen Ebenen ab. |
| Keywords: | European border regions, cross-border obstacles, European integration, cross-border functional areas, EU territorial policies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:319079 |
| By: | Bjørndal, Endre (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Bjørndal, Mette (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Hovdahl, Isabel (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Tselika, Kyriaki (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The European Union aims to strengthen electricity market integration as part of its transition to a low-carbon energy system, with substantial investments in cross-border transmission infrastructure. This paper presents the first empirical analysis of a new interconnector, NordLink, on price convergence between southern Norway (NO2) and Germany. Using a novel panel quantile regression model, we estimate the impact of NordLink on the full distribution of hourly electricity prices in both markets. We find that the cable raised average prices in NO2 and lowered them in Germany, but with substantial heterogeneity across the price quantiles. In NO2, lower-quantile prices fell while upper-quantile prices rose. In Germany, the largest reductions occurred in the upper price quantiles. Regarding volatility, NordLink increased price fluctuations in NO2 and reduced them in Germany. We also find that the interconnector has altered the relationship between electricity prices and key fundamentals. Notably, electricity prices in NO2 have become substantially more exposed to gas prices post-NordLink, while Germany has become less exposed. Our findings highlight that market integration influences not only average prices, but also the dynamics and structure of electricity prices, with important implications for policymakers and market participants navigating the future of cross-border transmission in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices; econometric analysis; interconnector; price volatility; renewables |
| JEL: | C31 C33 Q21 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2025_019 |
| By: | Joan Costa-i-Font; Anna Nicinska; Melcior Rossello Roig |
| Abstract: | We compare inequality and social mobility trends in European countries exposed to Soviet Communist (SC) regimes with those not exposed, using similar welfare mea-sures. We draw upon a rich retrospective dataset that collects relevant welfare measures across regimes, including information on living space and self-reported health, and relevant inequality and mobility indices for ordinal and categorical data. Our results suggest evidence of comparable welfare inequality trends in countries exposed to SC and those unexposed. Although individuals exposed to SC enjoyed higher levels of social mobility, differences in inequality across countries exposed to different regimes were negligible. A plausible explanation lies in the countervailing role of the welfare state in countries not exposed to SC and the inefficiency of the bureaucratic allocation of private goods aimed at reducing inequality in countries exposed to SC. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, welfare, living space, self-reported health, health inequality, education; social mobility, Soviet Communism, bureaucracies, European Communist Regimes |
| JEL: | I14 H53 I13 I38 N34 P20 P29 P36 P46 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11916 |
| By: | Dejkam, Rahil (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty, a multidimensional socio-economic challenge, significantly affects the welfare of many people across Europe. This paper aims to alleviate energy poverty by exploring sustainable energy practices and policy interventions, using pilot household survey data collected within an EU project in Portugal and Denmark. A novel multidimensional energy poverty index (MEPI) is developed to assess energy poverty through different dimensions—such as heating and cooling comfort, financial strain, access to energy-efficient appliances, and overall health and well-being. In a next step, for selecting features, machine learning techniques, including recursive feature elimination and random forest analysis, are employed. These methods help to reduce the number of irrelevant and mutually correlated predictors. Subsequently, a logistic regression model is used to predict energy-poor households based on selected socio-economic and policy-related factors. The logistic regression model results indicate that sustainable energy-saving behaviors and supportive government policies can indeed effectively mitigate energy poverty. Furthermore, to analyze the impact of the determined features, the shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method is being utilized. Finally, the main findings are further evaluated via scenario simulation analysis. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI); Thermal Discomfort; Sustainable Energy-saving Practices; Logistic Regression; Recursive Feature Elimination-Cross Validation (RFE-CV) |
| JEL: | C60 C83 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2024_001 |
| By: | Kuusi, Tero; Lähdemäki, Sakari |
| Abstract: | Abstract We examine value chain productivity within the EU15 from 1995 to 2017; a period marked by growth and its subsequent slowdown following the 2008 Financial Crisis. Using data on global value chains from the new OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables and KLEMS data, we construct a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) of value chains, indexed by their final producer industry. Our findings indicate that the post-crisis slowdown in productivity growth within the EU15 is attributable to both weakened TFP growth in final producer industries and slightly negative TFP growth in the rest of the value chain. Using dynamic panel estimation, we demonstrate that the spillover effects of business-related intangibles on VC TFP growth were a significant contributor to growth before the crisis, whereas the returns to tangible investments have been weak. In addition, we perform an event study analysis of globalization shocks by examining the impact of bilateral investment agreements with China. Following the implementation of the agreement, we observe a positive impact on TFP. This improvement is accompanied by an increase in business-related intangibles within the final industry of the value chain, along with modest growth in tangibles. These findings suggest a positive productivity impact of globalization, and underscore the significant role of business-related intangibles over tangibles. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, Intangibles, Productivity, Globalization |
| JEL: | F60 O47 L16 O14 E22 |
| Date: | 2025–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:128 |
| By: | Stoll, Peter-Tobias |
| Abstract: | Die EU verfügt über ein weltweit einzigartiges Netz von Freihandelsabkommen. In oft langwierigen Verhandlungen hat sie dafür Vereinbarungen geschlossen, die über eine gegenseitige Öffnung der Märkte weit hinausgehen. Vielmehr beziehen die Abkommen wirtschaftliche und außenpolitische Themen mit ein, ebenso Fragen der ökonomischen Entwicklung und des Schutzes menschenwürdiger Arbeit, der Umwelt und der Menschenrechte. Allerdings ändern sich zunehmend die Rahmenbedingungen. Dies betrifft nicht nur die neuesten Aktivitäten der US-Regierung in der Handelspolitik, die Erosion der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) als multilateraler Ordnungsrahmen oder die geoökonomischen Prioritäten anderer Akteure sowie die zunehmende Konkurrenz mit ihnen. Auch die Handelspolitik der EU selbst hat sich gewandelt, neue Ziele definiert und neue Instrumente entwickelt. Diese Herausforderungen bieten Anlass, die bisherige Praxis der EU auf den Prüfstand zu stellen, was den Umgang mit geplanten Freihandelsabkommen angeht. Das gilt für deren Inhalt und Zuschnitt, aber auch für die Verhandlungen mit den jeweiligen Partnern sowie die EU-internen Abläufe der Zustimmung und des Abschlusses. Wesentlich muss die EU in die Lage kommen, Freihandelsabkommen erforderlichenfalls leichter und schneller abschließen zu können. Sie kann dazu ihren Partnern in einigem Umfang eine Modularisierung und Dynamisierung der Vereinbarungen anbieten, ebenso eine Kooperation bei der Umsetzung der EU-seitigen autonomen Nachhaltigkeitsinstrumente. Die EU muss aber auch intern die Zustimmung zu Abkommen und deren Abschluss erleichtern und beschleunigen. Sie kann dabei in weitem Umfang von der Möglichkeit Gebrauch machen, den "Handelsteil" von Abkommen im Rahmen ihrer Handelskompetenz allein und mit einer qualifizierten Mehrheit im Rat abzuschließen. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union, Freihandelsabkommen, Handelspolitik, hybride Ordnung des Handels, Welthandelsorganisation (WTO), Modularisierung, Dynamisierung |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:319061 |
| By: | Berg, Tobias; Haselmann, Rainer |
| Abstract: | The European financial system faces significant risks from excessive bank lending to the real estate sector. Historical trends show a strong link between real estate credit booms and banking crises. Current data indicate that real estate loans constitute a substantial share of banks' corporate loan portfolios, with varying risk levels across countries. Key drivers include expansionary ECB policies and regulatory incentives favouring mortgage lending. Strengthening oversight, improving data collection, and adjusting regulations are essential for financial stability. This document was provided/prepared by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the ECON Committee. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate Landing, Banking Crisis, Financial Stability |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:319064 |
| By: | Molina, Jose Alberto; Velilla, Jorge |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution of working from home across European countries using data from the European Working Conditions Survey (2005–2021). The study documents a substantial increase in working from home, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, with notable cross-country and gender differences. It also examines how working from home correlates with individual characteristics such as gender, age, education, employment status, occupation, and household composition. We find that self-employment, digital work intensity, and higher education are consistently associated with greater working from home prevalence. Conversely, public sector employment and full-time contracts are negatively related to working from home. |
| Keywords: | work from home; remote work; telework; EWCS data |
| JEL: | D0 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124865 |
| By: | Marcus How; Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe Geo-economic uncertainty taking its toll by Olga Pindyuk Long-term FDI developments in CESEE point to a structural shift in many countries, especially in Central Europe. Recently, investor confidence in the region has been badly affected by rising uncertainty. Data on greenfield investment projects announced reveal a significant weakening of investment performance in most countries of the region. China has been cementing its role as the biggest investor in the region. Navigating political risks The resilience of FDI in Hungary’s evolving economy by Marcus How Hungary has experienced institutional decline under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s administrations, while nationalisation and ‘indigenisation’ have reduced FDI in sectors such as banking, utilities and energy. However, FDI in manufacturing and construction has remained stable – or has even grown – due to discretionary policy incentives. Despite the overall political risks, Hungary’s FDI inward stock exceeded EUR 100bn by 2023, with robust macroeconomic fundamentals, a low rate of corporate tax and the country’s EU membership serving to attract investors. Forecasts of main economic indicators for Central, East and Southeast Europe for 2024-2026 |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, greenfield projects, political risks, foreign direct investment, nationalisation, indigenisation |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2024-11 |
| By: | Mehdi Mikou (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Améline Vallet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Climate risk in Europe is unevenly distributed among the population and is projected to increase substantially over the 21st century due to evolving climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Projections of vulnerability drivers, such as income distribution, are needed for assessing future climate risk. In Europe, existing studies typically rely on inadequate proxies, such as gross domestic product per capita, to account for future vulnerability associated with income levels. This study presents a novel top–down iterative methodology to produce decadal, high-resolution (1 km) maps of disposable income across Europe for the 21st century consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). More specifically, our method aligns with SSP narratives on future economic growth, income distribution, population dynamics and settlement expansion. We illustrate two possible applications of these projections by analysing future shifts in income distribution and estimating the evolution of the number of people at risk of poverty across different development pathways. In highly unequal pathways (SSP3 and SSP4), poverty levels across Europe are projected to increase significantly, with over 30% of the population at risk of poverty by 2100. On the other hand, pathways with high economic growth, specifically SSP1 and SSP5, result in a decrease in poverty rates. This dataset can serve as a resource for examining future vulnerabilities to climate change and socioeconomic inequalities, providing valuable insights for more effective climate risk assessments and targeted adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | high-resolution income projections SSP, high-resolution, income, projections, SSP |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05046090 |