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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2025–02–17
25 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Haselmann, Rainer; Heider, Florian; Pelizzon, Loriana; Weber, Michael |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy in the euro area faces significant challenges due to the evolving economic landscape marked by the return of inflation, financial instability risks, and the consequences of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) to the operational framework of monetary policy. This article evaluates these key challenges in the context of the European Central Bank's (ECB) mandate and its broader implications. It highlights the unprecedented resurgence of inflation, which has complicated monetary policy decisions and revealed gaps in understanding household inflation expectations. Financial stability, now integral to the ECB's mandate, is strained by trade-offs between short-term and long-term stability, particularly under high-interest rate environments. Finally, UMP has disrupted traditional financial mechanisms and increased dependency on the central bank's liquidity operations. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Inflation, Financial Stability, Balance Sheet |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safepl:310334 |
| By: | Labhard, Vincent; Saliba, Maria Christine |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from supply drivers at origin, in transport, or at destination. The results from the suite show that the supply shock has had wide-spread effects, and that their dynamics have been industry-, sector- and country-specific. Supply conditions have been tighter for longer in the euro area than other areas, in automobile than digital and food industries, in services relative to other sectors, and in some countries than others. The drivers at home appear to account for an increasing share of the specificity at the end of the sample, and a broader data set helps to better capture these drivers. The results also confirm that the supply indices in the suite lag supply shocks and lead variables susceptible to the effects of supply shocks. JEL Classification: C43, C82, E66, R32, R41 |
| Keywords: | euro area countries, industries, sectors, supply chains, supply conditions |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253015 |
| By: | BRUN Lidia (European Commission - JRC); PYCROFT Jonathan; SPEITMANN Raffael (European Commission - JRC); STASIO Andrzej Leszek (European Commission - JRC); STOEHLKER Daniel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Most Member States have already transposed the EU Minimum Corporate Tax Directive that implements the so-called "Pillar Two" of the global agreement to address the tax challenges arising from the digitalisation of the economy. The Directive ensures a 15% global minimum level of taxation of for multinational enterprise groups and large-scale domestic groups in the Union that have an effective tax rate below 15%. The new top-up tax is expected to reduce profit shifting. While previous estimates have been produced by the IMF, OECD and EU Tax observatory, we bring complementary evidence by considering also the long-term and economy-wide impact of Pillar Two for the EU. Our empirical estimates, based on the 2017-2021 country-by-country reporting (CbCR) data collected by the OECD, suggest that Corporate Income Tax (CIT) revenues in the EU would increase on average by 7.1% or EUR 26 billion annually from the implementation of the Global Minimum Tax Rules by all EU countries in the short run. These calculations take into account the recent policy developments in the US concerning the opt-out from the Pillar Two agreement. Our long-term fiscal projections, once the impact of Pillar Two implementation on business investment is factored in, indicate that CIT revenues would increase annually by 7.0% (EUR 25.7 billion) for the EU as a whole. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc141119 |
| By: | Szörfi, Béla; Augusztin, Anna; Iker, Áron; Monisso, Anna |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the growth impact of the EU’s Structural, Cohesion and Pre-accession Funds. We look at a large sample of 27 EU countries and the UK, over a period of 1989 and 2020, essentially covering the full history of these funds. We show that the growth effect of the funds is conditional on institutional quality: the funds contribute to economic growth only in countries with strong institutions: low corruption, strong rule of law, effective governments, and strong regulatory quality.Our research have important messages for the expected economic impact of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). On the one hand, our findings highlight the risk that countries with weaker institutions – that also receive more funds - may use such funds less efficiently or wisely. On the other hand, countries that receive more RRF funds are also expected to introduce more structural reforms, some of which have the potential to improve institutional quality and thereby improve the effectiveness of the RRF and EU funds in general. JEL Classification: O11, O43, O47 |
| Keywords: | cohesion funds, economic growth, institutions, structural |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253014 |
| By: | Caldarola, Bernardo (Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research); Mazzilli, Dario; Patelli, Aurelio; Sbardella, Angelica |
| Abstract: | Structural change consists of industrial diversification towards more productive, knowledge-intensive activities. However, changes in the productive structure bear in-herent links with job creation and income distribution. In this paper, by taking an economic complexity approach, we investigate the consequences of structural change defined in terms of labour shifts towards more complex industries on employment growth, wage inequality and functional distribution of income. The analysis is con-ducted for European countries using data on disaggregated industrial employment shares over the period 2010 – 2018. First, we identify patterns of industrial specialisa-tion by validating a country-industry industrial employment matrix using a bipartite weighted configuration model (BiWCM). Secondly, we introduce a country-level mea-sure of labour-weighted Economic Fitness, which can be decomposed in such a way as to isolate a component that identifies the movement of labour towards more complex industries the structural change component. Thirdly, we link structural change to i) employment growth, ii) wage inequality, and iii) the labour share of the economy. Our findings indicate that the structural change measure we propose is associated negatively with employment growth. However, it is also associated with lower income inequality: as countries move to more complex industries, they drop the least complex ones, so the (low-paid) jobs in the least complex sectors disappear. Finally, structural change predicts a higher labour ratio of the economy; however, this is likely to be due to the increase in wages rather than to job creation. |
| JEL: | E24 D63 J31 O11 O15 O52 |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024033 |
| By: | D'Allesandro, Francesco; Santarelli, Enrico; Vivarelli, Marco |
| Abstract: | In this paper we integrate the insights of the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (KSTE+I) with Schumpeter's idea that innovative entrepreneurs creatively apply available local knowledge, possibly mediated by Marshallian, Jacobian and Porter spillovers. In more detail, in this study we assess the degree of pervasiveness and the level of opportunities brought about by AI technologies by testing the possible correlation between the regional AI knowledge stock and the number of new innovative ventures (that is startups patenting in any technological field in the year of their foundation). Empirically, by focusing on 287 Nuts-2 European regions, we test whether the local AI stock of knowledge exerts an enabling role in fostering innovative entry within AI-related local industries (AI technologies as focused enablers) and within non AI-related local industries, as well (AI technologies as generalised enablers). Results from Negative Binomial fixed-effect and Poisson fixed-effect regressions (controlled for a variety of concurrent drivers of entrepreneurship) reveal that the local AI knowledge stock does promote the spread of innovative startups, so supporting both the KSTE+I approach and the enabling role of AI technologies; however, this relationship is confirmed only with regard to the sole high-tech/AI-related industries. |
| JEL: | O33 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024016 |
| By: | Monica Barahona-Varon; Toker Doganoglu; Lukasz Grzybowski |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of individuals’ awareness of EU Energy Labels and the extent to which these labels influence their purchase decisions for electric appliances. The analysis is based on Eurobarometer survey data from 27, 438 individuals across 28 EU Member States in 2019. Specifically, we explore the role of socioeconomic characteristics such as age, gender, education, financial stability, and political engagement. Our findings indicate that individual characteristics have a stronger effect on the influence of labels on purchase decisions than on label awareness. However, significant heterogeneity across countries persists, even after controlling for individual characteristics. Using our model, we perform three exercises in which we assume a policymaker can either increase label awareness among all unaware individuals or target specific demographic groups. We demonstrate the resulting impact on the share of individuals whose purchase decisions are influenced by the labels. The results reveal that, even when label awareness is at its highest level, it does not necessarily lead to substantially greater influence on purchasing decisions in certain countries. |
| Keywords: | European Green Deal, Ecodesign Directive, energy-efficiency |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 Q48 C83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11637 |
| By: | Sacha den Nijs (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Mark Thissen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute) |
| Abstract: | Resilience and competitiveness in relation to fossil energy dependencies is of increasing concern to industries and policy makers. We investigate to what extent the competitive position of industries in European regions are sensitive to changes in fossil fuel prices, and whether reductions in gas use along the value chain may increase regional industry resilience. A new spatial revealed cost competition model based on the input-output price model is used and calibrated to multi-regional world input-output tables on an EU NUTS 2 level. We obtain elasticities of fossil fuel prices on revealed cost competitiveness and analyze how they are affected by increased efficiency and electrification in production. We show that European regions are resilient to global coal price increases, whereas they are vulnerable to gas price shocks. The transition towards using less gas in production, by efficiency improvements or electrification, can reduce these gas price vulnerabilities. However, when competitors become more efficient instead, the vulnerability to such shocks may increase. Decarbonizing upstream sectors like electricity generation in the own region, own country or in Europe, can increase resilience of downstream industrial sectors in most European regions. |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness, regional resilience, fossil fuels, energy efficiency, global value chains, input-output analysis |
| JEL: | F18 Q41 R11 R15 |
| Date: | 2024–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240061 |
| By: | RUEDA CANTUCHE Jose Manuel (European Commission - JRC); LOPEZ ALVAREZ Jorge (European Commission - JRC); PEDAUGA Luis (European Commission - JRC); CATALAN PIERA Alba (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | In her political guidelines, President Von der Leyen emphasised the significance of “Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships” to en-hance competitiveness and decrease reliance on other world economic regions, while rein-forcing trade defence mechanisms. Within this policy context, this policy brief aims to help prioritising trade policy actions by un-ravelling the EU vulnerabilities and dependen-cies at three levels: EU, national and territorial, with a high industry detail. This brief is focused on the possibility of a change in US trade defence policy towards China in light of the forthcoming US elections, which may affect EU exports to the US with high Chinese value added content. At EU level, China accounted for around 18-27% of the foreign value added incorporated in the EU exports to US of motor vehicles, ma-chinery and equipment and computer and electronics. At national level, Germany and France alone cumulated more than half of the total Chinese value added content in the EU exports to US whereas other smaller Eastern European countries, such as Estonia or Hungary, showed high relative dependence levels. At regional level, Stuttgart and Upper Bavaria (Germany), Ile-de-France (France), North Bra-bant (Netherlands) and the Southern, and Eastern and Midland regions (Ireland) ac-counted for half of the total Chinese value added content in EU exports to US. Our findings can help informing EU trade de-fensive measures and prepare upcoming pref-erential trade agreements and investment partnerships to be more effective in the re-gions and industries that would be more im-pacted by US trade policy shifts towards pe-nalising the entrance of goods and services with high Chinese value added content. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139823 |
| By: | Rebecca Freeman; Marco Garofalo; Enrico Longoni; Kalina Manova; Rebecca Mari; Thomas Prayer; Thomas Sampson; Kalina B. Manova |
| Abstract: | How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK’s exit from the EU’s single market and customs union in January 2021 led to an immediate, sharp drop in both exports and imports with the EU for the average firm. In addition, many exporters and importers stopped trading with the EU entirely. However, heterogeneous firm-level responses to the implementation of trade barriers mitigated Brexit’s impact on aggregate trade. The decline in exports was concentrated among smaller firms, but insignificant for the largest firms. Our estimates imply that, in the short run, leaving the EU reduced worldwide UK exports by 6:4% and worldwide imports by 3:1%. The fall in imports was driven by lower imports from the EU, which importers offset by sourcing more from the rest of the world. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, Brexit, disintegration, deep integration |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11614 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Anamaria Diana Sova; Robert Sova |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the Seo and Shin (2016) method for estimating dynamic panels with endogenous threshold effects to obtain new, robust evidence on nonlinearities in the relationship between international financial integration (IFI) and economic growth. This approach is based on a first-differenced GMM estimator which allows both the threshold variable and the regressors to be endogenous. More specifically, the present study analyses yearly data for 40 European countries from 1996 to 2021, this European focus yielding novel insights into a region with a diverse economic landscape. The IFI–growth nexus is examined using various IFI measures and thresholds reflecting country-specific characteristics, and then the analysis is extended by comparing the impact of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis (GFC) and of the Covid-19 pandemic respectively on the relationship of interest. The results provide clear evidence of nonlinearities and suggest that the effects of financial integration on economic growth vary depending on factors such as the level of financial development, trade openness, institutional quality, political and economic uncertainty, initial income, and financial openness. Further, the 2007-2009 GFC appears to have had a more significant impact than the Covid-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | international financial integration (IFI), economic growth, nonlinearities, dynamic panels, endogeneity, thresholds |
| JEL: | C33 F36 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11639 |
| By: | Gabor Katay (European Commission, Directorate†General for Economic and Financial Affairs); Palma Filep-Mosberger (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Francesco Tucci (Sapienza Università di Roma) |
| Abstract: | The paper evaluates the impact of the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) grants on profit†oriented firms’ post†treatment performance. Using a quasi†experimental design and a dataset covering applicants from 46 countries, we find that FP7 grants increase firms’ sales and labour productivity by about 18%. However, there is no significant impact on employment levels, pointing to potential growth barriers that prevent firms from scaling production despite improved productivity. The effectiveness of these grants varies significantly based on factors such as financial constraints, project risk profiles, market structure, and the innovation environment. Smaller, less productive firms with tighter financial constraints in technologyintensive sectors operating in concentrated markets and favourable innovation environments, particularly those undertaking longer and riskier projects, tend to benefit more. |
| Keywords: | EU funds for research and innovation; firm productivity; regression†discontinuity design. |
| JEL: | C31 G28 H57 O31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2025/1 |
| By: | Alper, Koray; Baskaya, Soner; Shi, Shuren |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the influence of macroprudential policies (MaPs) on corporate investment, employing firm-bank level microdata from the European Investment Bank Investment Survey (EIBIS) for the period 2015-2022. We initially document that MaP tightening, particularly through supply-based MaPs, leads to a reduction in corporate investment. We then delve into the transmission mechanism of MaPs. Our analysis suggests that MaPs affect corporate investment through bank lending decisions. MaP tightening correlates with greater reliance on internal finance and reduced use of external finance. Further, we find that both bank and firm characteristics significantly contribute to the effect of MaPs on corporate investment. Specifically, we observe that financially weaker banks are more likely to restrict credit in response to MaP tightening. Moreover, firms that are heavily reliant on external finance for investment, as well as those that are financially weaker, appear to be more adversely affected by a reduced credit supply. Lastly, we find that MaPs exert a stronger impact on tangible investments, whereas intangible investments are less sensitive to MaPs. Our finding suggests that the insignificance is due to the lower reliance of intangible investments on external finance, verifying the presence of the bank lending channel of MaP transmission. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policies, bank lending, tangible investments, intangible investments, financial stability |
| JEL: | D22 E22 E58 G28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:310332 |
| By: | Poggi Ambra (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turin, Torino, Italy); Simeone Enza (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turin, Torino, Italy) |
| Keywords: | Social Capital; Regional Resources; Inequality; Mixed-effects Model |
| JEL: | I14 C23 D30 R10 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:097 |
| By: | RUEDA CANTUCHE Jose Manuel (European Commission - JRC); LOPEZ ALVAREZ Jorge (European Commission - JRC); PEDAUGA Luis (European Commission - JRC); CATALAN PIERA Alba (European Commission - JRC); MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The EU’s commitment to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels affects the employment of certain economic activities, such as the coal based industries and other upstream activities in EU territories. Future policy interventions to counter-balance the negative effects of decarbonisation on employment need to ensure appropriate alternatives in those regions that can be most potentially affected by the coal transition, either directly or indirectly. At national level, in 2017, there were 430, 000 jobs that were directly or indirectly associated to coal production and coal-fired power plants in the EU, of which 46% were located in Poland, followed by Czechia and Romania. At regional level, the Silesian region in Poland hosted close to 90, 000 jobs associated to coal based activities, followed by the Romanian South-West Oltenia and other regions in Czechia (North-West). Our results identify those regions potentially most affected by ceasing coal based activities in the EU, also taking into account upstream employment effects in other regions and industries. Our results could help the design of the upcoming “Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act” aiming to decarbonise European industry, informing policy measures that could ensure fossil fuel use reduction, and the creation of new job opportunities in the territories negatively affected by the transition. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139404 |
| By: | Bernard, Josef; Refisch, Martin; Kostelecky, Tomas; Grzelak, Anna; Konopski, Michal; Klärner, Andreas |
| Abstract: | The concept of left-behind places or regions has skyrocketed in recent years and various empirical studies are using the concept to describe (not only) economically lagging regions. Yet, there is still no settled definition and method of measurement of left-behindness in the social sciences. In the methodological part this working paper presents a plausible conceptualisation and operationalisation of left-behind regions in European Union countries. The operationalization of “left-behindness” is guided by several principles: it is relative to national standards, multidimensional, and both structural and dynamic. Labour market regions are identified as the appropriate spatial unit for analysis. The study uses NUTS3 regions, aggregated for metropolitan areas and adjacent regions, excluding extraterritorial and small countries. A total of 918 regions across 25 countries are analysed using indicators related to economic viability, social structure, and population development from 1993 to 2021. Our empirical analysis highlights how the nature of “left-behindness” varies across Europe, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern Europe. In these regions, left-behindness is closely tied to regional disadvantages, char-acterized by low economic prosperity, reduced social status, and higher poverty rates. These areas often experi-ence stagnation or shrinkage, with non-metropolitan regions being particularly affected, possibly due to poorer infrastructure. In other parts of Europe, the different dimensions of left-behindness are less coherently associ-ated and do not form clear spatial patterns. In particular, poverty is spatially decoupled from low economic pros-perity in many countries. Overall, we identified macro-regional differences of left-behindness manifestation across Europe, shaped by historical, economic, and social factors unique to each region. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwp:349286 |
| By: | Bruni, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of green investments on market power. I measure the market power as markup following the method provided in De Loecker and Warzynski (2012). For green investments, I consider specifically the investments of firms in energy efficient technologies, both as the binary variable and as the continuous variable. This allows the examination of how the presence of such investments as well as their intensity affect markups. I use firm, age, year, sector and country fixed effects with a representative sample of indicatively 12, 000 firms from the European Investment Bank Investment Survey (EIBIS) in the panel from 2016 to 2022. I find the positive and statistically significant relationship that holds also when applying the 2SLS-IV methodology. This study is particularly relevant for firms that are willing to increase their market power and to improve their environmentally friendly image in the eyes of their customers without the need of engaging in greenwashing practices. Instead, the firms are invited to consider energy efficiency investments as a concrete way of improving both their markups and the loyalty of their customers. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Environmental Economics and Policy, Financial Economics, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:349287 |
| By: | BENCZUR Peter (European Commission - JRC); BOSKOVIC Ana (European Commission - JRC); GIOVANNINI Enrico; PAGANO Andrea (European Commission - JRC); SANDOR Alina-Mihaela (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Announced in the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report of the Commission, the sustainable and inclusive wellbeing initiative recognizes the usefulness of GDP but also the need for complimentary indicators to fully capture all aspects of the quality of life, inclusiveness, and sustainability. One of its main objectives is to develop a multidimensional dashboard, which integrates existing tools and frameworks into a set of indicators that provide a holistic view of the wellbeing of people and the planet. This development involved a rigorous process in an inter-service working group, narrowing down over a thousand potential measures to a comprehensive dashboard of 140 and eventually 50 indicators. Besides documenting the process, this report presents some preliminary analyses based on the dashboard of 50 indicators and corresponding synthetic indices. The analysis shows that the state of wellbeing and its components in the European Union varies across Member States, presenting important examples of a decoupling of wellbeing from income. While there is a general correlation between economic prosperity and wellbeing, there are notable exceptions and trade-offs between different aspects of wellbeing. In times of renewed discussions around the need to boost EU’s competitiveness, the SIWB dashboard can be a central monitoring tool to make sure that reigniting Europe’s economic engine does not become an end in itself but rather a means for delivering wellbeing to all people of the current and future generations, and to the planet. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140456 |
| By: | Abbassi, Puriya; Bianchi, Michele Leonardo; Della Gatta, Daniela; Gallo, Raffaele; Gohlke, Hanna; Krause, Daniel; Miglietta, Arianna; Moller, Luca; Orben, Jens; Panzarino, Onofrio; Ruzzi, Dario; Scherrieble, Willy; Schmidt, Michael |
| Abstract: | Government bond markets play a critical role in the smooth functioning of the financial system, in the conduct and transmission of monetary policy and in the economy as a whole. Maintaining resilient government bond markets is fundamental for policymakers and authorities. This note examines the German and Italian government bond markets, with a special focus on liquidity and on the role played by banks vs. non-banks. To this end, the holding and market structure of the German and Italian government bond markets are analysed at the granular sectoral level. We also look at the trading activities of various market participants in the repo and futures market. This comprehensive analysis enhances the understanding of government bond market dynamics, investor behaviour, and liquidity, providing insights for policymakers and market participants. |
| Keywords: | government bonds, repo, futures, market structure, banks, non-bank financial intermediaries, financial stability |
| JEL: | G10 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:310318 |
| By: | Busch, Berthold |
| Abstract: | Der Europäische Binnenmarkt ist inzwischen schon mehr als 30 Jahre alt. Er hat den freien Verkehr von Personen, Waren, Dienstleistungen und Kapital innerhalb der Europäischen Union (EU) zum Ziel. Es gibt jedoch immer noch Hindernisse für diese vier Freiheiten. Die Europäische Kommission will mit einer neuen Strategie dagegen vorgehen. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:309596 |
| By: | Soete, Luc (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); Stierna, Johan |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a Schumpeterian perspective on the policy responses to the current polycrisis environment, the European Union (EU) finds itself confronted with. Joseph Schumpeter developed most of his insights into long-term economic and political development while being confronted himself with major transformative, societal changes: political, economic and technological ones. From this perspective, the current turbulent times of rising geo-political tensions, unsustainable development resulting in out-of-control climate change and declining biodiversity, and widespread application of Artificial Intelligence (AI), have a lot in common with the period in which Schumpeter developed his thoughts and hence might benefit from a closer look at those Schumpeterian insights. Times of turbulence require transformative policies integrating various policy areas. However, while ‘transformation’ will often be perceived as essential at a global level: “transform or be transformed”, it w ill also be understood by citizens living in concrete places as a threat or a sudden unexpected confrontation with new uncertainties. In this context, ‘places’ need to become increasingly recognized as important for industrial policy, just as they are for climate, energy, agriculture, and innovation policy. The analysis presented here highlights following Schumpeter’s insights, the need for an open industrial transformation approach less based on old, national industrial policy notions but adopting a new vision on the role of place-based industrial innovation in strengthening Europe’s long-term resilience to political, economic and technological change. |
| JEL: | F63 L52 N74 O25 P19 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023022 |
| By: | Valérie Mignon (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antonin Aviat (SER Washington); Frédérique Bec (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, CREST-ENSAE, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université); Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Catherine Doz (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Denis Ferrand (Rexecode, Paris); Laurent Ferrara (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre-Alain Pionnier (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020. |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une datation trimestrielle de référence des périodes de récession et d'expansion de l'économie française depuis 1970, réalisée par le comité de datation des cycles de l'Association française de science économique. La méthodologie repose sur deux piliers : 1) des estimations économétriques pour identifier les périodes candidates et 2) une approche narrative détaillant le contexte économique de l'époque pour finaliser la datation. De 1970 à 2019, quatre périodes de récession économique sont identifiées : les chocs pétroliers de 1974-1975 et 1980, le cycle d'investissement de 1992-1993 et la grande récession de 2008-2009. Pour la récession Covid, le pic est daté au dernier trimestre 2019 et le creux au deuxième trimestre 2020. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, French economy, Dating, Narrative approach, Econometric modeling, Cycles économiques, Economie française, Datation, Analyse narrative, Modèles économétriques |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03661598 |
| By: | Marius Clemens; Claus Michelsen; Malte Rieth |
| Abstract: | The article documents the construction of a narrative instrument for government investment, used in the paper ‘An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier’. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, public investment, structural vector autoregression, instrumental variable, general equilibrium model, Germany |
| JEL: | E62 E65 H54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2107 |
| By: | Matthes, Jürgen; Sultan, Samina |
| Abstract: | Der deutsche Export sendet deutliche Warnsignale. Die Wachstumsraten des Exports haben sich im Zeitraum 2015 bis 2023 im Vergleich zu 2000 bis 2015 um rund zwei Drittel reduziert. In der Folge sind die Wachstumsbeiträge des Exports von 1, 8 Prozentpunkten zwischen 2000 und 2015 auf 0, 8 Prozentpunkte ab 2015 und auf lediglich noch 0, 3 Prozentpunkte nach 2019 deutlich zurückgegangen. Er ist somit kaum noch Wachstumsmotor für die deutsche Wirtschaft. Eine anhaltende Verschlechterung des Exports nach 2015 wird auch gemäß der OECD-Exportperformance deutlich, die eine Art länderspezifischen Anteil am globalen Export von Waren und Dienstleistungen misst und somit als ein ergebnisorientiertes Maß für die internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Exporte eines Landes interpretiert werden kann [...] Sollte sich diese Entwicklung fortsetzen, droht in einer Welt mit mehr Protektionismus und schwachem Wachstum die Gefahr, dass Anteilsverluste für Deutschland in Zukunft auch zu absoluten Rückgängen bei deutschen Exporten führen und so die Rolle der Exporte als wichtiger Wachstumsmotor dauerhaft beeinträchtigt wird. Um diese Gefahr zu mindern, braucht es energische Reformen zur Verbesserung der preislichen und nicht-preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft. |
| Abstract: | German Exports are sending out clear warning signals. Export growth rates have fallen by around two thirds in the period from 2015 to 2023 compared to 2000 to 2015. As a result, the growth contributions of exports have fallen significantly from 1.8 percentage points between 2000 and 2015 to 0.8 percentage points from 2015 and to just 0.3 percentage points after 2019. Exports are therefore hardly an engine of growth for the German economy anymore [...] If this trend continues, in a world of increasing protectionism and weak growth, there is a risk that the loss of market shares will lead to an absolute decline in German exports in the future and that the role of exports as an important driver of economic growth could be durably impaired. To mitigate this risk, vigorous reforms are needed to improve the price and non-price competitiveness of the German economy. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 O5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:310325 |
| By: | Pedro del Río (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Paula Sánchez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); María Méndez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Antonio Millaruelo (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Susana Moreno (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Manuel Rojo (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Jacopo Timini (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Francesca Viani (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | La reciente incorporación de Ucrania, Moldavia y Georgia al grupo de países candidatos ha dado un nuevo impulso al proceso de ampliación de la Unión Europea (UE). Esta posible ampliación futura tiene importantes implicaciones desde un punto de vista geopolítico y económico, con ganancias esperadas en términos de comercio, oportunidades de inversión y abastecimiento de productos críticos, pero también supone retos importantes para el funcionamiento de la propia UE que probablemente requerirán reformas de calado en cuestiones tales como el proceso de toma de decisiones o el ámbito presupuestario. |
| Keywords: | Unión Europea, ampliación, integración europea, países candidatos, instituciones europeas, reformas |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F53 O52 O57 P33 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2501 |