|
on European Economics |
|
Issue of 2026–08–24
24 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Wieland, Volker; Tatar, Balint |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). It focuses on versions of the Taylor (1993) and Orphanides and Wieland (OW) (2013) rules. Rules that respond to recent outcomes of HICP Core or domestic inflation data called for raising interest rates in 2021 and well ahead of the rate increases implemented by the ECB. Thus, such simple outcome-based policy rules deserve more attention in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. Interestingly, the rules support the recent shift of the ECB to policy easing. Yet, they add a note of caution by suggesting that policy rates should not decline as fast as apparently anticipated by traded derivative-based interest rate forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Interest rates; European central bank; Taylor rule; Orphanides-Wieland rule; New-Keynesian macro-epidemic models |
| JEL: | E42 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19521 |
| By: | Bodnár, Katalin; Fagandini, Bruno; Healy, Peter; Höynck, Christian; Rousseau, Flavie |
| Abstract: | The ECB’s inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation. However, domestically determined inflation features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism and in gauging underlying inflation, making it important to assess it regularly. The ECB monitors various proxies for domestically determined inflation, including: (i) “domestic inflation”, which aggregates inflation items with a low import share; and (ii) “Supercore” inflation, which aggregates inflation items found to be sensitive to the aggregate business cycle. This paper provides a detailed overview of the methodologies used to derive both these indicators and updates the relevant input data. It suggests refinements to the methodologies that would also make these measures more robust in future updates. In addition, it explains the changes in these indicators due to the introduction of a new classification of consumer goods and services (European Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (ECOICOP) version 2) for the compilation of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). First, on domestic inflation, the paper explains the new underlying data on the import share of inflation items made available since the publication of its methodology, and provides an update, combined with a few methodological changes (for example, moving to a constant composition of the included items). Second, with regard to Supercore inflation, the paper explains the challenges of identifying a cyclical inflation indicator for the euro area, especially in the light of the recent large shocks, and explores modelling approaches. It proposes some refinements to the previous methodology, while keeping a Phillips curve approach as a focal point in the analysis. For both indicators, the paper presents the updated indicators and some key properties. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52 |
| Keywords: | business cycle, domestic inflation, monetary policy, Phillips curves, Supercore, underlying inflation |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbsps:202654 |
| By: | Spanò, Guido; Figueres, Juan Manuel |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy in the euro area by focusing on the role of banks’ funding structures. We estimate the interest rate pass-through for loans to non-financial corporations using bank-level balance sheet data. In doing so, we interact the response of lending rates with characteristics of the funding structure, and show that banks that rely more on bond issuance than on the money market tend to be less responsive to policy changes. Finally, we test the presence of the asset-liability-management channel, and find that banks combining longer-term liabilities (higher bond shares) with longer rate fixation periods for loans (higher share of loans with fixed rates) exhibit the most muted lending rate response to policy shocks. JEL Classification: C23, E44, E52, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank lending channel, banks’ funding structures, monetary policy pass-through |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263274 |
| By: | Kosekova, Kamelia; Maddaloni, Angela; Papoutsi, Melina; Schivardi, Fabiano |
| Abstract: | We document the structure of firm-bank relationships for the eleven largest euro area countries and present new stylized facts using data from the Eurosystem credit registry - AnaCredit. We look at the number of banking relationships, reliance on the main bank, credit instruments, loan maturity, and interest rates. Firms in Southern Europe borrow from more banks and obtain a lower share of credit from the main bank than those in Northern Europe. They also tend to borrow more on short-term, more expensive instruments and to obtain loans with shorter maturity. This is consistent with the hypothesis that firms in Southern Europe rely less on relationship banking and obtain credit less conducive to firm growth, in line with their smaller average size. Relationship lending does not translate into lower rates, possibly because banks appropriate part of the surplus generated by relationship lending through higher rates. Finally, assortative matching, according to which small banks specialize in supplying credit to small firms, is stronger in Northern European countries. |
| Keywords: | Anacredit; Corporate financing; Bank credit |
| JEL: | G21 G3 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19464 |
| By: | Andrea Fracasso; Stefano Schiavo |
| Abstract: | Growing geopolitical tensions have renewed interest in trade-related vulnerabilities as a component of economic security. However, the lack of a well-defined conceptual framework around the concept of economic security implies the co-existence of different definitions, shifting boundaries and fuzzy policy prescriptions. Recent empirical work has developed product-level indicators of external dependence, typically combining information on import concentration, global supply concentration, and domestic substitutability. These methodologies are generally designed either for sovereign States or for the European Union treated as a single integrated area. This paper argues that they cannot be directly replicated to assess vulnerabilities at the level of individual EU Member States. The paper's methodological contribution shows that the EU's quasi-federal nature creates specific conceptual and measurement problems for Member State assessments, especially concerning the treatment of intra-EU sourcing in the construction of concentration and substitutability indicators. These choices affect the internal coherence of vulnerability metrics and reflect prior judgments about whether the relevant threat is economic coercion, broader supply disruption, or both. An empirical section applies one of the existing methodologies to highly disaggregated trade data to illustrate the impact of alternative treatments of intra-EU trade and compare different results. |
| Keywords: | conomic security, trade dependence, supply-chain risk, EU, coercion |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12878 |
| By: | Leonard, Clara; Braun, Ben; Klooster, Jens van 't; Monnet, Eric |
| Abstract: | The Hormuz shock of February 2026 confronts the European Central Bank (ECB) with a familiar dilemma: inaction can risk entrenching inflation, while tightening risks deepening the slowdown and penalising renewable energy and cleantech investment. We argue that the ECB should be cautious and, if tightening proves necessary, ensure its operations shield renewable energy and cleantech sectors. Our analysis also reveals a growing gap between the ECB's communication on fossil fuel risks and its policy framework. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140409 |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin (University of Milan, Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)); Elisabetta Mirto (Study Center Gerzensee); Yan Qin (ClearBlue Markets); Luca Rossini (University of Milan, Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)) |
| Abstract: | We tackle the issue of producing point, sign, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the European carbon market, EU ETS. We show that a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model, augmented with factors based on macroeconomic and financial variables, yields accuracy gains over a set of benchmark forecasts in both point and density forecasts. We also provide a qualitative comparison of model-based forecasts with survey expectations and forecasts released by data providers. Moreover, we consider verified emissions and demonstrate that adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR model. Lastly, we rely on forecasts to build market monitoring tools that track demand and price pressure in the EU ETS. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:szg:worpap:2603 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The mandates and responsibilities of the institutions in the financial safety net in Portugal are set within the Banking Union framework. The European authorities that have jurisdiction in the Portuguese banking system include the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC), the Single Resolution Board (SRB), and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The EU’s single rulebook on crisis management and domestic legislation forms the framework under which the Portuguese authorities operate. |
| Keywords: | IMF staff; Resolution planning; staff team; Resolution department; Resolution funding; Resolution regime; Resolution tool; Bank resolution framework; Crisis resolution; Crisis management; Bridge bank; Global |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/200 |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Jan-Christopher Scherer |
| Abstract: | The capital stock in Germany and other advanced economies has been aging persistently since 1970s, raising concerns about its implications for productivity, economic growth, and resilience. This study investigates the relationship between capital stock modernity and productivity dynamics using a panel dataset covering 24 European countries between 1997 and 2020. We employ a panel local projections model with split-panel jackknife corrections to address the Nickell-type bias inherent in dynamic panel models with fixed effects. Our analysis controls for human capital, research and development, trade openness, institutional quality, and financial development. The results show that improvements in capital stock modernity exert a positive and statistically significant effect on both total factor productivity (TFP) and labor productivity, although the timing of these effects varies across measures. Specifically, labor productivity growth responds immediately to capital modernization, whereas potential TFP growth increases only from the second year following the shock. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity, labor productivity, capital stock, modernity grade |
| JEL: | C23 E22 O47 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2176 |
| By: | Federico, Giovanni; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Ridolfi, Leonardo; Vasta, Michelangelo |
| Abstract: | We present new demand-side estimates of GDP per capita for Italy and its two macro-areas, Centre-North and South for the pre-industrial period (1328-1861), based on a novel dataset including almost 95, 000 observations from 169 different locations. Our estimates confirm the chronology of the “Little Divergence†relative to the Netherlands and England. Italy maintained its leading position relative to the other European countries and was overtaken by France and Germany only in the first half of the 19th century. GDP per capita trends differed between Centre-North and South determining a “slow-motion†divergence from the 15th century to the political unification. |
| Keywords: | Italy; Gdp per capita; demand side approach; regional divergence |
| JEL: | N13 E01 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19406 |
| By: | Kolev-Schaefer, Galina |
| Abstract: | Die Präferenzen und die Kaufkraft privater Verbraucher weisen erhebliche Unterschiede im EU-Vergleich auf, die sich in der Struktur ihrer Ausgaben widerspiegeln. So gibt man in Rumänien nur 3, 0 Prozent des eigenen Budgets für Restaurants und Beherbergungsleistungen aus, während in Malta mehr als ein Fünftel auf diese Kategorie entfällt. Deutschland bleibt Spitzenreiter in der Kategorie Freizeit, Sport und Kultur, für die die privaten Haushalte in etwa jeden zehnten Euro aus ihrem Konsumbudget ausgeben - Tendenz steigend. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:342588 |
| By: | Sondermann, David; Petrakis, Corinne |
| Abstract: | We estimate the cyclical response of labour force participation to growth shocks across EU regions. We use a shift-share instrumental variable approach and local projections on EU Labour Force Survey microdata covering 15 countries and 114 regions over 2000–2020. The aggregate labour force participation rate is remarkably resilient, a clear contrast to the highly cyclical participation rate documented for the U.S. However, this resilience masks pronounced demographic heterogeneity. Men’s participation declines significantly while women’s remains stable, reflecting sectoral segregation and the added worker effect. Young workers exhibit the most persistent responses, with effects lasting up to eight years, consistent with hysteresis through human capital erosion. Less-educated and non-native workers bear disproportionate employment costs. The findings imply that aggregate slack measures may miss important distributional dimensions relevant for monetary, fiscal, and structural policy. JEL Classification: J21, E24, E32, R23 |
| Keywords: | Bartik instrument, demographic heterogeneity, labour force participation rate, local projections |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263275 |
| By: | de Souza, Tomás Carrera; Oosterhek, Koen; Weber, Soizic |
| Abstract: | The Eurosystem implements its monetary policy through a set of monetary policy instruments (MPIs). This report reviews the main changes in the use of MPIs and the associated developments in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy implementation framework over 2024-25. Inflation returned to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%, supported by the smooth transmission of monetary policy. After completing the hiking cycle of 2022 and 2023, the ECB began reducing its key interest rates in June 2024. This easing phase occurred alongside further balance sheet normalisation. Holdings in the monetary policy bond portfolios continued to run-off, and funds lent under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) were fully repaid by December 2024. In March 2024, the ECB announced several changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy following a review process. Finally, the collateral framework remained broad, while temporary crisis-related measures were phased out and climate-related considerations were further integrated. JEL Classification: D02, E43, E58, E65, G01 |
| Keywords: | asset purchase programmes, central bank collateral framework, central bank counterparty framework, central bank liquidity management, climate, monetary policy implementation, non-standard monetary policy measures, refinancing operations |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2026398 |
| By: | Brazzola, Nicoletta |
| Abstract: | The war in Iran has led to kerosene prices roughly doubling and forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights. Some voices from the industry have used the crisis to call for climate policies to be relaxed. However, this misreads what the crisis actually demonstrates: Costs are being driven not by too much climate policy, but by dependence on fossil energy itself. In 2026/27 the European Union (EU) will decide whether to end the "stop the clock" exemption that has shielded international flights from the Emissions Trading System (ETS) since 2013 and extend the ETS to all departures from the European Economic Area, or whether such flights will continue to be covered by international offsetting mechanisms. The decision will have implications well beyond aviation: for the EU's 2040 climate target, the demand for durable CO2 removal, and the credibility of European climate policy more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Off-setting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), EU aviation, Iran war, Climate Policy, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, SAF, EU Emis-sions Trading System, ETS, Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for Interna-tional Aviation, CORSIA, Article 6.4 credits, ReFuelEU, International Civil Aviati-on Organization, ICAO, carbon dioxide removal, CDR, direct air capture with carbon storage, DACCS |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:342580 |
| By: | Klas Klaas; Pilar Sáenz De Ormijana |
| Abstract: | Public internal financial control (PIFC) was introduced by the European Commission to help public sector organisations align their financial management and control systems with the principles of sound financial management. This paper reviews the state of internal control and internal audit in EU candidate countries and potential candidates, identifying achievements, challenges and options for further development. While the core elements of PIFC have supported convergence with EU good practices and international standards, implementation often remains focused on compliance rather than results. The paper proposes measures to strengthen internal control and enhance the effectiveness of internal audit. |
| Keywords: | central harmonisation units, CHUs, EU accession, financial management and control, internal audit, internal control, managerial accountability, OCDE, OECD, PIFC, public administration reform, public financial management, Public internal financial control, risk management, SIGMA |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaac:81-en |
| By: | Alessandrini, Fabio; Jondeau, Eric; Vallée, Lou-Salomé |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of various portfolio construction techniques in the context of decarbonization and the pursuit of net-zero objectives aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement. Specifically, we examine different strategies that qualify as Article 9 funds under EU regulations, focusing on carbon emissions reduction objectives, such as screening and tracking error minimization techniques. Our findings indicate that all approaches would have achieved the targeted emissions reductions over the 10-year period (2012-2021) analyzed. However, the method of decarbonization significantly affects ex-post tracking errors, with the more ambitious Paris-Aligned Benchmark requiring a substantial departure from the business-as-usual benchmark. Additionally, the tracking error minimization approach involves considerable reallocation of individual securities, potentially leading to, possibly undesirable, idiosyncratic exposures. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Net-zero investment; Portfolio carbon footprint |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19421 |
| By: | Furno, Francesco; Giannone, Domenico |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple yet robust framework to nowcast recession risk at a monthly frequency in both the United States and the Euro Area. Our nowcast leverages both macroeconomic and financial conditions, and is available the first business day after the reference month closes. In particular, we argue that financial conditions are not only useful to predict future downturns–as emphasized by the existing literature–but they are also useful to distinguish between expansions and downturns as they unfold. We then connect our recession risk nowcast with growth-at-risk by drawing on the literature on distributional regressions and quantile regressions. Finally, we benchmark our nowcast with the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and show that, while both have a similar ability to identify downturns, the former is more accurate in correctly identifying periods of expansion. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; Financial conditions; Macroeconomic forecasting; Risk modeling and forecasting |
| JEL: | E32 C32 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19483 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rivera-Olvera, Angelica (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | Schooling increases earnings but getting causal information on the impact of schooling requires generating evidence from policy changes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on earnings using new compulsory schooling law data across 16 European countries. We use recent and comparable microdata and analyze the impact of reforms on schooling and earnings. Results show that a year of education substantially increases earnings, especially for those with tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, compulsory schooling reforms, instrumental variables, causal inference, human capital, earnings, Europe |
| JEL: | I26 J31 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18859 |
| By: | Badino, Nicolò (Department of Economics, University of Genova); Cardullo, Gabriele (University of Genova); Sechi, Agnese (Department of Economics, University of Genova) |
| Abstract: | How much a household suffers from inflation depends on what it consumes. We show that this simple observation links household expenditure behavior to inflation inequality, welfare losses, and poverty. Building on a non-homothetic CES demand system, we derive household-specific exact cost-of-living indexes and apply them to the 2022 European energy crisis in Spain and Italy. Using household expenditure microdata, we estimate non-homothetic preferences and show that the same expenditure patterns governing Engel curves also determine households' welfare sensitivity to inflation. Consequently, poorer households face substantially larger welfare losses than would be implied by inflation differentials alone, while Italian households exhibit systematically greater welfare sensitivity than comparable Spanish households. Under an anchored poverty line, a common price deflator conceals 1.6 million newly poor in Spain, while in Italy it is nearly innocuous, because the shock is already large enough to push the same households below the line. Our results caution against relying on a single representative-agent price index to assess the distributional consequences of large relative-price shocks. |
| Keywords: | household consumption, non-homothetic preferences, inflation inequality, cost-of-living indexes, welfare, poverty measurement |
| JEL: | D12 E31 I32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18849 |
| By: | Pandit, Rajendra (University of Nepal); Stratton, Leslie (Virginia Commonwealth University) |
| Abstract: | Firm failures have far-reaching consequences for employees, investors, communities, and the broader economy. Less productive firms are generally more likely to fail. However, high productivity may come at a cost that hampers survival, especially during sudden, unforeseen crises such as COVID-19. Using data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in 20 European countries, this study tests whether there was a nonlinear association between productivity and survival during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that SMEs with below-average productivity relative to their industry were more likely to shut down, whereas firms with exceptionally high productivity do not experience additional survival advantages. These results, while not causal, also hold across alternative SME definitions, underscoring the robustness of the results. |
| Keywords: | firm closure, COVID-19, relative productivity |
| JEL: | D24 L25 G33 O30 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18869 |
| By: | Anja Bauer (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen); Katharina Gangl (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen) |
| Abstract: | This study examines possible predictors and consequences of expected inflation, a central determinant of individuals’ decision making. We utilize unique microdata from the German consumption climate survey covering monthly data from more than 220, 000 individuals between 2003 and 2025. Our findings confirm that consumer perception of past inflation plays a decisive role for inflation expectations leading to sticky inflation expectations that need some time to adjust to official inflation statistics. In addition, results indicate that across the sample period, inflation expectations are correlated with reduced individual income expectations. In contrast and as a novelty, the present data shows that the relationship with buying and saving intentions is not stable. During moderate inflation phases inflation expectations are related to lower buying and lower saving intentions, during inflation peaks this relationship reverses to the opposite and during transition phases from moderate to high inflation or vice versa, no significant relationships can be found. Theoretically, the present research indicates that high frequency data is needed to estimate how inflation expectations and consumer intentions are related. Practically, the present research can be used to better time and frame inflation communication and mitigation policies. |
| Keywords: | inflation perceptions, consumer climate, consumer confidence, behavioral economics, consumption behavior |
| JEL: | E31 E39 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoh:report:report-002 |
| By: | Tarsia, Romano |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel firm-level estimates of the economic damages caused by temperature shocks to European firms. I rely on a panel data analysis to show wide heterogeneities in the impact of temperature shocks, which depend on firm characteristics. This paper reveals the importance of micro-level data for quantifying climate damage estimates, as the average relationship between temperature and economic outcomes masks firms’ different susceptibilities to weather shocks. These create both winners and losers, harming less productive firms, particularly those in warmer regions, while benefiting more productive ones. Compared with the pooled marginal effect, the least-productive firms experience negative effects roughly ten times as large, while the most-productive firms experience positive effects roughly three times as large. Additionally, higher temperatures increase exit probability among the least productive firms in warmer regions. I highlight the distributional effects of climate change, and offer insights for adaptation policies. |
| Keywords: | climate change;firms;climate damages;economic performance |
| JEL: | D24 O13 O52 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140233 |
| By: | Lukas Franken; Iegor Riepin; Tom Brown |
| Abstract: | Recent price shocks have prompted calls to curb Europe's dependence on fossil gas imports, but the cost of this goal, and the consumer protection it affords, remain uncertain. Here we address this gap by imposing constraints on fossil gas supply in a European energy system model that co-optimises abatement across all gas uses at high spatio-temporal resolution. Cutting import reliance proves economically compelling: through savings in power generation and low-temperature heat in industry and buildings, Europe can halve its natural gas consumption for 16bnEUR/a, aligning demand with the continent's production capacity of 200 bcm. This extra system cost is comparable to what consumers spend today on a 2 EUR/MWh rise in gas import prices. However, this sovereignty alone does not shield consumers from global gas price volatility: we find that, even at a small share of the mix, gas remains dominant in shaping the marginal electricity price, leaving consumers exposed without additional policy measures. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.21048 |
| By: | Beznoska, Martin; Hentze, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Eine Reform der Einkommensteuer steht seit Jahren auf der politischen Agenda. Zwar wurde die kalte Progression in den vergangenen zehn Jahren weitgehend ausgeglichen, eine strukturelle Reform des Tarifs ist jedoch ausgeblieben. Das Aufkommen aus Lohnsteuer und veranlagter Einkommensteuer ist in den vergangenen Jahren um 50 Prozentpunkte stärker gestiegen als die Lohnsumme - ein Beleg für eine insgesamt gestiegene Steuerlast. Der Grenzsteuersatz steigt als Folge der ausgebliebenen Reformen früh auf ein hohes Niveau an, der Spitzensteuersatz greift im Verhältnis zum Durchschnittseinkommen deutlich eher als in früheren Jahren. Während es im Jahr 2005 noch das Doppelte des durchschnittlichen Bruttoverdiensts brauchte, um in den Spitzensteuersatz zu rutschen, beträgt das Verhältnis im Jahr 2026 nur noch 1, 4 zu eins. Die hohen Grenzsteuerbelastungen mindern den Anreiz, die Arbeitszeit auszuweiten. Von einem Euro zusätzlichem Arbeitnehmerentgelt gehen in Kombination mit den Sozialbeiträgen bis zu 60 Prozent an den Staat. Gleichzeitig beeinflusst die Einkommensteuer die Bereitschaft, unternehmerisches Risiko einzugehen. Denn die Einkommensteuer betrifft nicht nur Arbeitnehmer, sondern ist auch eine wichtige Unternehmensteuer. Personengesellschaften machen zwar nur rund 2, 4 Prozent der Steuerpflichtigen aus, vereinen aber rund 14 Prozent der gesamten Einkünfte auf sich. In der Debatte um eine Erhöhung des Spitzen- oder Reichensteuersatzes sollte bedacht werden, dass diese zu einem erheblichen Teil unternehmerische Tätigkeiten träfe. Beim Spitzensteuersatz entfallen rund 40 Prozent der Bemessungsgrundlage auf unternehmerische Aktivitäten, beim Reichensteuersatz sind es sogar rund 70 Prozent. Gleichzeitig erfüllt die Einkommensteuer eine zentrale Verteilungsfunktion. Die unteren Einkommensgruppen zahlen kaum Einkommensteuer, während die Belastung mit dem Einkommen deutlich ansteigt. Auf die einkommensstärksten 5 Prozent der Steuerpflichtigen entfallen rund 40 Prozent des gesamten Aufkommens einschließlich Solidaritätszuschlags, während ihr Anteil am zu versteuernden Einkommen bei knapp 22 Prozent liegt. Eine vollständige Abschaffung des Mittelstandsbauchs wäre eine umfassende und mit Blick auf die Arbeitsanreize zielführende Reform, mit Steuermindereinnahmen von rund 68 Milliarden Euro jedoch fiskalisch sehr teuer. Eine moderate Reform, die kleine und mittlere Einkommen entlastet und den Beginn des Spitzensteuersatzes nach hinten verschiebt, erscheint daher eher realistisch. Für diese Tarifoption werden Mindereinnahmen von rund 21 Milliarden Euro veranschlagt. Für Normalverdiener bedeutet dies zumindest eine Entlastung in Höhe eines mittleren dreistelligen Eurobetrags im Jahr, - dass der Betrag mit dem Einkommen steigt, liegt in der Natur des Tarifverlaufs. Damit würde es gelingen, die schleichenden Steuererhöhungen der vergangenen 20 Jahre auszugleichen und in etwa zur Tarifstruktur des Jahres 2006 zurückzukehren, also dem Stand nach der letzten Einkommensteuerreform. Obwohl bei den Reformoptionen alle Einkommensgruppen entlastet werden, tragen hohe Einkommen nach einer Reform stets einen größeren Anteil am Steueraufkommen als bisher. Der Grund ist, dass mittlere Einkommen in der linear-progressiven Tarifzone prozentual stärker entlastet werden als hohe Einkommen. Zu beachten ist bei der anstehenden Reform, dass allein der Ausgleich der kalten Progression des Jahres 2026 eine Entlastung von rund 8 Milliarden Euro erfordert. Erst darüber hinausgehende Maßnahmen wären eine strukturelle Entlastung. |
| Abstract: | Reforming personal income tax has been on the political agenda for years. Although bracket creep has largely been offset over the past ten years, the income tax schedule itself has not been structurally reformed.Revenue has risen by 50 percentage points more than the wage bill over recent years, indicating a higher overall tax burden. As a result of these missing reforms, marginal tax rates rise to a high level at a relatively low income. The top tax rate also applies much earlier relative to average income than it did in the past. High marginal tax burdens reduce the incentive to work longer hours. Combined with social security contributions, up to 60 percent of an additional euro of employer labour costs is absorbed by the state. At the same time, personal income tax affects the willingness to take entrepreneurial risk. It does not only apply to employees but is also an important business tax. Partnerships account for only about 2.4 percent of taxpayers, yet they generate around 14 percent of total income. Any debate about raising the top tax rate or the surtax on very high incomes should therefore take into account that this would significantly affect entrepreneurial activity. Around 40 percent of the tax base subject to the top rate stems from business income; for the surtax on very high incomes, the share is as high as 70 percent. At the same time, personal income tax plays a central redistributive role. Lower income groups pay little or no income tax, while the burden rises sharply with income. The top 5 percent of taxpayers account for around 40 percent of total revenue from personal income tax and the solidarity surcharge, while their share of taxable income is only just under 22 percent. A full elimination of the so-called "middle-class bulge" would be a far-reaching reform and, from the perspective of work incentives, a desirable one. However, with revenue losses of around 68 billion euros, it would be fiscally very costly. A more moderate reform therefore appears more realistic - one that relieves low and middle incomes and shifts the threshold for the top tax rate to a higher level. This option is estimated to reduce revenue by around 21 billion euros. For average earners, this would amount to annual tax relief in the mid-hundreds of euros. The fact that the amount rises with income is inherent in the structure of the tax schedule. Such a reform would largely reverse the gradual tax increases of the past 20 years and roughly restore the tariff structure of 2006, i. e. after the last major income tax reform. Although all income groups would benefit from the reform options, high-income taxpayers would still bear a larger share of the total tax burden than they do today. The reason is that middle incomes in the linear-progressive part of the schedule would be relieved more strongly in relative terms than high incomes. It should also be noted that merely offsetting bracket creep in 2026 already requires tax relief of around 8 billion euros. Only measures beyond that would amount to structural relief. |
| Keywords: | Steuer- und Finanzpolitik, Verteilung und öffentliche Finanzen, Distribution and public finances |
| JEL: | H20 H24 D31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:342537 |