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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2025–05–26
29 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Soares, Carla |
| Abstract: | This study investigates to what extent the significant liquidity injections by the ECB over the past 15 years may have created a dependency by banks on central bank liquidity itself. Following Acharya et al. (2024), I examine whether the ECB's liquidity provision changed banks' incentives to increase liquid deposits, potentially heightening their susceptibility to liquidity shocks. Using both aggregate and bank-level data, I find that euro area banks tend to increase demand deposits and decrease time deposits with their holdings of excess reserves over the liquidity expansion phase and do not revert when aggregate liquidity starts to shrink. However, this is contained to specific periods, when interest rates were low and stable. The differences relative to the US could be related to distinct sources of liquidity and regulatory frameworks governing liquidity. JEL Classification: E5, G21 |
| Keywords: | central bank liquidity, deposits, euro area, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253056 |
| By: | Amelie BARBIER-GAUCHARD; Emmanouil SOFIANOS |
| Abstract: | The situation of public finance in the eurozone remains a burning issue for certain Euro area countries. The financial markets, the main lenders of the Member States, are more attentive than ever to any factor which could affect the trajectory of public debt in the long term. The risk of bankruptcy of a Member State and a domino effect for the entire monetary union represents the ultimate risk weighing on the Eurozone. This paper aims to forecast the public debt, with a universal model, on a national level within the Euro area. We use a dataset that includes 566 independent variables (economic, financial, institutional, political and social) for 17 Euro area countries, spanning the period from 2000 to 2022 in annual frequency. The dataset is fed to four machine learning (ML) algorithms: Decision Trees, Random Forests, XGBoost and Support Vector Machines (SVM). We also employ the Elastic-Net Regression algorithm from the area of Econometrics. The best model is an XGBoost with an out-of-sample MAPE of 8.41%. Moreover, it outperforms the projections of European Commission and IMF. According to the VIM from XGBoost, the most influential variables are the past values of public debt, the male population in the ages 50-54, the regulatory quality, the control of corruption, the female employment to population ratio for the ages over 15 and the 10 year bond spread. |
| Keywords: | Public Debt; Euro Area; Machine Learning; Forecasting. |
| JEL: | C53 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-47 |
| By: | Lionel Gérard Fontagné; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We propose and construct novel measures of the effectiveness and potential of trade blocs, combining estimation with granular data and simulation with a New Quantitative Trade Model. We deploy our methods and new indexes to quantify the potential benefits from (i) further integration within the largest and most successful trade liberalization effort in the world – the Single European Market – and (ii) a possible enlargement. Three main results and implications stand out from our analysis. First, European integration has been very effective in promoting trade among its members, with heterogeneous effects across industries and member states. Second, and most novel and important, our estimates reveal that only half of the potential benefits from EU membership have been realized to date. Third, EU accession will generate very large gains from trade for the new joiners and moderate gains for existing members, with larger benefits for some small and peripheral EU members. Importantly, our methods enable us to construct confidence bounds for the effects of EU enlargement. |
| Keywords: | European integration, trade costs, trade cost efficiency, single market potential. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11850 |
| By: | Pablo Hernández de Cos |
| Abstract: | This paper reflects on these developments ahead of the ECB’s 2025 monetary policy review |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_10886 |
| By: | Boddin , Dominik (Deutsche Bundesbank); te Kaat, Daniel Marcel (University of Groningen); Roszbach , Kasper (Norges Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel microlevel evidence that cross-border bank flows are an important means for households to access credit, not only in emerging markets but also in advanced economies. Using supervisory bank-level data alongside household credit and consumption data from Germany, we study how lending to households was impacted by the influx of cross-border bank funding following the European Central Bank’s implementation of nonconventional monetary policy in 2014 and 2015. Regional banks that were highly exposed to fluctuations in foreign capital inflows increased consumer lending to riskier, lower-income households by 50% more than other banks. Rising deposit inflows from non-euro area banks induced less-capitalized banks to expand their lending on the extensive margin. The analysis concludes that Improved access to credit enables lower-income customers of exposed banks to increase nondurable consumer spending. Data from a larger group of euro area countries confirm that conclusion. |
| Keywords: | cross-border bank flows; households; bank lending; risk-taking; credit booms; funding shocks |
| JEL: | F30 G20 G50 |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0779 |
| By: | Daniele Colombo (London Business School); Francesco Toni (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; Scuola Normale Superiore, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas in the Euro Area and the United States. Demand shocks are identified using exogenous temperature variations, while supply shocks are identified through a high-frequency strategy based on an extensive collection of market-relevant news. This approach enables us to estimate gas market elasticities and uncover key transmission channels through which gas price shocks affect the broader macroeconomy. Our findings show that gas demand in the Euro Area adjusts more slowly than in the United States, amplifying the inflationary impact of supply shocks. This effect is reinforced by inventory accumulation and financial volatility, pointing to a transmission channel driven by expectations and uncertainty. The aggregate real effects appear limited, though we document substantial sectoral heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Gas price shocks, gas supply, gas demand, elasticities, proxy-VAR, external instruments, temperature deviations, inflation |
| JEL: | C32 E31 Q38 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2025-20 |
| By: | Harald Oberhofer (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Zhenyi Wang (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of dataset choices for trade policy estimates in structural gravity models. Using twelve publicly available data sources and applying alternative and commonly used dataset restrictions, we obtain 586 estimates for the EU membership trade effects from a standard structural gravity model specification. These estimates are used in a meta-regression analysis to shed light on potential sources for heterogeneity in the obtained EU membership trade effects. The meta study reveals a crucial role of domestic trade flows for the effect size of the EU membership trade effect estimate. The estimated EU trade effect is on average 20 percentage points larger in datasets that include domestic trade flows. The effect size of the EU membership trade effect estimates also vary with the time- and country coverage, across time interval and consecutive year panel data, alternative product classifications, the level of sectoral disaggregation in the data and the use of imports as alternative measure for trade flow. Alternative estimation packages do not significantly alter the effect size of our estimates for the EU membership trade effects. The paper concludes with some recommendations on data source selection and dataset restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy; EU membership trade effects; Gravity models; meta study; meta-regression analysis. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 C80 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202523 |
| By: | Anttonen, Jetro; Lehmus, Markku |
| Abstract: | We investigate the macroeconomic effects of two recent major geopolitical events on the euro area economy, namely, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To take into account the heterogeneity of geopolitical events, we do not seek to identify a homogeneous geopolitical shock on which to base our causal inference, but construct event-specific combinations of jointly identified macroeconomic shocks instead. To this end, we employ a non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive model that is statistically identified but also makes use of zero- and sign restrictions and illustrate how different sources of identifying information complement each other. Our results show that adverse geopolitical events may have either inflationary or deflationary effects on indirectly affected economies and that context dependence is required from the monetary authorities when assessing the importance of geopolitical shocks to achieving their price stability objectives. |
| Keywords: | structural vector autoregression, statistical identification, monetary policy, inflation, geopolitics |
| JEL: | C32 C54 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:317790 |
| By: | Breckenfelder, Johannes; Schepens, Glenn |
| Abstract: | Central banks increasingly act as market-makers-of-last-resort, yet the impact and exit of such interventions remain poorly understood. Using euro-area data, we analyze the cycle of market freeze, intervention, and exit in short-term debt markets. A run on money market funds (MMFs) triggered a collapse in these markets in March 2020. Firms replaced only 27% of lost funding through credit lines. The European Central Bank intervened, fully replacing MMFs for some firms and allowing them to issue more debt at lower rates and longer maturities. After the ECB’s exit, more-exposed firms faced higher yields (+20.2 bps), reduced MMF investments, and fewer new relationships. Credit line take-up did not materially change post-exit. JEL Classification: G11, G23, G32, E5 |
| Keywords: | central bank intervention, commercial paper, exit, market-maker-of-last resort, money market funds, short-term corporate debt |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253055 |
| By: | Duygu Buyukyazici; Olivier Brossard; Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | The transition toward a circular economy (CE) represents not only an economic shift but also a profound social transformation that fundamentally redefines production, consumption, and policy patterns; thus, it necessitates comprehensive institutional change. This study presents the first macro-level empirical assessment of the CE transition across European regions over recent decades. Afterwards, it examines how regional regulative, normative, and cultural/cognitive institutions influence regional CE performance by also considering crucial confounding factors including EU cohesion funds, regional decentralisation, and the EU Circular Economy Action Plan (CEAP). The results reveal strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as the diverse effects of different institutions. Regulative institutions exhibit the most consistent positive effect across and within countries. Normative values matter most within regions, while cultural-cognitive factors modestly support CE efforts. Importantly, combination of all institutional pillars yields the greatest circularity gains. EU cohesion funds significantly boost CE progress, especially in less developed regions, while CEAP marks a structural shift in the role of institutions post-2015. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of coordinated institutional frameworks and targeted policy support for advancing the regional CE transition. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, circular transition, institutions, institutional theory, regions |
| JEL: | Q01 Q50 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | Minetti, Raoul; Murro, Pierluigi; Peruzzi, Valentina |
| Abstract: | We investigate the influence of firms' global status on the allocation of credit during a financial crisis. Using data on 15, 000 businesses from seven European countries, we find that firms participating in global value chains were 25% less likely to be rationed by banks during the 2009 Great Recession. We next match information on the geography of firms' value chains with data on banks' branch and subsidiary networks. We find that banks especially insulated from credit rationing firms with supply chain relationships in the countries where banks have the largest presence. The results reveal that banks aimed at reducing spillovers on their lending and consulting activities with global chains rather than leveraging their knowledge of internationally traded products. |
| Keywords: | Banks; global value chains; financial crises; spillovers. |
| JEL: | D22 F10 G20 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124369 |
| By: | Huixin Bi; Andrew Foerster; Nora Traum |
| Abstract: | Using a two-country monetary union framework with financial frictions, we quantify the efficacy of targeted asset purchases, as well as expectations of such programs, in the presence of sovereign default and financial liquidity risks. The risk of default increases with the level of government debt and shifts in investors’ perception of fiscal solvency. Liquidity risks increase when the probability of default affects the tightness of credit markets. We calibrate the model to Italy during the 2012 European debt crisis and compare it to key features of the data. We find that changes in investors’ perception played a more significant role than increases in government debt in affecting the macroeconomy. When a debt crisis occurs, asset purchases help stabilize both financial markets and the economy. This stabilization effect can occur even if asset purchases are expected but never implemented. Moreover, expectations of potential asset purchases during a crisis alter the level of economic activity in periods when there are no crises. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy; monetary policy; unconventional monetary policy; Monetary Union; financial frictions; Regime-Switching Models |
| JEL: | E58 E63 F45 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:99977 |
| By: | Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa; Steitz, Janek; Ziesemer, Vinzenz |
| Abstract: | The European Union has reformed its fiscal rules in late 2024, making debt sustainability analysis (DSAs) the central steering tool for European fiscal policy. DSAs will be used to project debt-to-GDP ratios and derive fiscal policy requirements. In this paper, we show that DSAs currently largely ignore economic impacts resulting from climate damages, as well as from the climate policies needed to satisfy the emissions constraint set by European climate targets. Both will likely reduce economic growth and worsen fiscal indicators, according to relevant literature. We further discuss how the growth impact of climate policy depends on the mix of policy instruments. In the presence of market failures beyond the carbon externality and uncoordinated global climate action, a balanced policy approach including public investment will likely lead to better economic outcomes than an approach based purely on carbon pricing. We show how DSAs can account for the impacts of climate damages and for policies in alignment with the current fiscal constraints (a new baseline). Illustrated by indicative simulations, we show that a more balanced climate policy approach could improve growth and possibly even fiscal indicators vis-à-vis this new baseline. We conclude that DSA methodology should be reformed to account for European climate targets and highlight some research gaps and modelling inconsistencies that need to be addressed to do so. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, fiscal rules, debt sustainability analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:317068 |
| By: | Simone Vannuccini (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I use the case of artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse the challenges and opportunities in designing a European industrial policy that (i) adopts a pro-competitive posture, (ii) does not fall victim of the risk of double weaponization by pro-nationalistic and pro-oligopolistic narratives, and (iii) reorients its goals away from the AI 'arms race' and to the provision of public goods. At the moment, the AI industry is an infant industry, and the European digital stack enabling AI applications is controlled by non-European actors, which reduces European autonomy and justifies policy support. I suggest that while AI's economic impact are overestimated and hyped, AI should be a pillar of European industrial policy due to its strategic asset and dual-use nature. Through a series of proposals, I outline the contours of a European AI industrial policy; its features can be summarised by three keywords: public, as in the public assets that the EU should aim to build on the basis of open source technology and in the public interest; federated, through variety and the decentralisation of AI solutions conceived as a nonoligopolistic European alternative to large scale systems; and federal, realising decoupling across the technology stack, when possible and advisable, through supranational tools, institutions, and finances. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, strategic asset, industrial policy, European Union, geopolitical rivalries |
| JEL: | L40 L50 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2025-21 |
| By: | van 't Klooster, Jens |
| Abstract: | The ECB's strategy is under review, and rightly so. Recent inflation shocks have exposed weaknesses in the ECB's current approach. It focuses too narrowly on medium-term inflation expectations and relies almost exclusively on interest rate adjustments. The strategy is blind to structural inflation risks. Supply-side disruptions, corporate pricing power, and climate-related shocks were key drivers of the 2022-23 inflation surge, yet these risks lie outside the ECB's analytical framework and time horizon. Rate hikes alone are a blunt and costly tool. The ECB's reactive approach left it with few options beyond raising rates, which did little to curb cost-push inflation at the source and risked undermining investment in long-term resilience, especially in clean energy. The ECB's framework can be updated. Though mindful of 1970s-style inflation and inspired by the Bundesbank's success in fighting it, the drafters of the ECB mandate recognised the uniqueness of these circumstances and deliberately gave the central bank the flexibility to adapt to new economic challenges. The 2025 review is a chance to do so. The ECB must equip itself to detect and address structural risks before they materialise - and coordinate more effectively with other EU policy tools to preserve price stability in turbulent times. This report makes three policy recommendations: 1. Broaden the time horizon of the ECB's strategy to include the long-term preconditions for price stability. 2. Create a third analytical pillar dedicated to long-term risks, including climate change, energy dependence, demographics, market power and geopolitical disruptions. 3. Embed monetary policy in a wider EU inflation governance framework that supports strategic coordination with fiscal, industrial and competition policies. |
| Keywords: | Monetarypolicy, Inflation, ECB |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:317066 |
| By: | Quentin Parrinello (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Giulia Varaschin (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | This policy note provides a revenue estimate of how much European Member States could raise with a minimum tax of 2% or 3% on the wealth of people owning more than €100 million or €1 billion in wealth – the scenarios considered in the report commissioned by the G20 presidency. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05046957 |
| By: | Latino, Carmelo; Pelizzon, Loriana; Riedel, Max; Wang, Yue |
| Abstract: | Using hand-collected data on European auto asset-backed securities (Auto ABS), we examine the role of mutual funds in financing the transition to zero-emission mobility. Mutual funds, particularly those with a green mandate, tend to have a higher exposure to sustainability-transparent Auto ABS and tend to allocate more capital to deals with a higher proportion of electric vehicles. However, we find no clear preference for portfolios with lower average CO2 emissions. This behaviour suggests that, in the absence of a globally recognized framework for green securitizations, asset managers rely on sustainability proxies that are associated with the lowest disclosure processing costs. Our analysis provides important new evidence on how standardized sustainability disclosures at both the prospectus and loan levels could influence asset allocation. |
| Keywords: | Auto ABS, Car Loans, Zero- or low-emission vehicles, Mutual funds, Securitization, Sustainable Finance |
| JEL: | G11 G18 G20 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:316445 |
| By: | Jaccoud, Florencia (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the linkages between occupational exposure to recent automation technologies and inequality across 19 European countries. Using data from the European Union Structure of Earnings Survey (EU-SES), a fixed-effects model is employed to assess the association between occupational exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and to industrial robots - two distinct forms of automation -and within occupation wage inequality. The analysis reveals that occupations with higher exposure to robots tend to have lower wage inequality, particularly among workers in the lower half of the wage distribution. In contrast, occupations more exposed to AI exhibit greater wage dispersion, especially at the top of the wage distribution. We argue that this disparity arises from differences in how each technology complements individual worker abilities: robot-related tasks often complement routine physical activities, while AI-related tasks tend to amplify the productivity of high-skilled, cognitively intensive work. |
| JEL: | J31 J24 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025013 |
| By: | GEORGAKAS, IOANNIS |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between expansionary monetary and fiscal policy and inflation in two different periods: the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic period from 2020 to 2022. In the first case, we analyze the response of central banks through interest rate cuts and quantitative easing in an environment of negative inflation and low demand. In the second, the much more intense monetary and fiscal intervention is examined, accompanied by direct transfers to households and firms, leading to widespread inflationary pressures from 2021 onwards. We attempt to compare the features and effects of the two policies, highlighting the effects of excessive liquidity, deficit financing, and delayed tightening. We conclude that treating inflation as a "transitory phenomenon" was a critical miscalculation. The need for macroeconomic stability, timely interest rate adjustment, and restoration of monetary credibility is stressed |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, inflation, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, interest rates, quantitative easing, 2008 crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, monetary policy, inflation |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124405 |
| By: | Mattia Di Ubaldo (University of Sussex); Michael Gasiorek (University of Sussex); Barry Reilly (University of Sussex); Aldo Sandoval-Hernandez (Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada) |
| Abstract: | Regulatory requirements are an important determinant of production and thus trade patterns. The effects can be complex as the requirements with which firms and/or products have to comply can either hinder or stimulate international trade. We use machine learning and text-analysis tools on a core set of EU Regulations and Directives to construct a novel set of indices of EU ‘regulatory intensity’ at the HS 6-digit level along three dimensions: technical production requirements, compliance, and conformity assessment. We then test the responsiveness of EU imports from EU and non-EU countries to regulatory intensity by estimating a gravity model with a stringent set of fixed effects. Distinguishing between the areas of regulation is crucial to understand the its impacts on trade: higher production requirements stimulate EU imports, while higher compliance and conformity assessment requirements affect EU imports negatively, mainly from non-EU countries. The trade effects are driven by products characterised by higher complexity, and countries for which the EU is a less relevant export-destination. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff Measures, EU Single Market, regulatory intensity, imports |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0325 |
| By: | Agnolin, Paolo (Bocconi University); Anelli, Massimo (Bocconi University); Colantone, Italo (Bocconi University); Stanig, Piero (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | Labor unions play a crucial role in liberal democracies by influencing labor market and political dynamics, organizing workers’ demands and linking them to parties. However, their importance has progressively diminished in the last decades. We suggest that technological change—and industrial robotization in particular—has contributed to weakening the role of unions. We produce novel granular data on union density at the sub-national and industry level for 15 countries of western Europe over 2002-2018. Employing these data, we estimate the impact of industrial robot adoption on unionization rates. We find that regions more exposed to automation experience a decrease in union density. The decline in unionization occurs via a compositional effect, i.e., a reallocation of employment away from traditionally unionized industries towards less unionized ones. On the other hand, there is no clear evidence of a systematic reduction in union density within industries more exposed to automation. |
| Keywords: | robots, automation, labor unions, Europe, regions |
| JEL: | J5 J2 O3 P0 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17864 |
| By: | Sumit Agarwal (NUS); Sergio Mayordomo (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); María Rodríguez-Moreno (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Emanuele Tarantino (LUISS, EIEF, CEPR, AND EUROPEAN COMMISSION) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how monetary policy affects corporate lending through its impact on household balance sheets, bridging the gap between the cash flow and bank lending channels. When policy rates rise, households with variable-rate debt face higher monthly payments, prompting early mortgage repayments, particularly among high-income borrowers. Exploiting the monetary tightening between July 2022 and September 2023 as a policy experiment, we show that banks that are more exposed to variable-rate mortgages granted to higher-income households increase their supply of corporate credit, especially to micro and small firms. However, no variation is observed in the balance of household credit or in other investment items on the banks’ balance sheets. Indeed, banks facing higher liquidity constraints tend to extend more corporate credit as their exposure to early redemptions increases. Our findings provide new evidence on how household financial constraints shape monetary policy transmission, offering novel insights into the interplay between household debt dynamics and corporate credit allocation. |
| Keywords: | floating-rate mortgages, early redemption, monetary policy tightening, monetary policy transmission, corporate lending, bank liquidity |
| JEL: | D14 E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2524 |
| By: | König, Jörg; Meyer, Tim |
| Abstract: | Die EZB und die Europäische Kommission treiben die Einführung eines digitalen Euros offensiv voran. Obwohl viele Details zur technischen Ausgestaltung und Funktionalität noch offen sind, wird damit geworben, dass eine digitale Gemeinschaftswährung mit einer Reihe von Vorteilen für Europa verbunden wäre. So soll der digitale Euro zusätzlich zum Bargeld als zweite Form des Zentralbankgeldes für jedermann zur Verfügung stehen, als Innovationstreiber und monetärer Anker dienen, die Abhängigkeit von nicht-europäischen Zahlungsdienstleistern verringern sowie die Souveränität und Autonomie der Eurozone sichern. Bei näherer Betrachtung überwiegen jedoch die Nachteile. Zuvorderst stellt sich die Frage nach dem tatsächlichen Mehrwert einer digitalen Gemeinschaftswährung. Im privaten Bereich sind die angeführten Vorteile angesichts der bereits bestehenden und mit anderen Finanzdienstleistungen kombinierbaren digitalen Zahlungswege wenig überzeugend. Schließlich gehört digitales Bezahlen längst zum Alltag vieler Haushalte, ohne dass es dafür bislang einer staatliche Digitalwährung bedurfte. Gleichzeitig ist mit der digitalen Gemeinschaftswährung die Gefahr verbunden, dass es zu einer schleichenden Abschaffung des Bargelds - Garant von Privatsphäre und Schutz vor Negativzinsen - kommt. Die avisierte Haltegrenze von 3.000 Euro und die Einbeziehung von Finanzintermediären reduziert zudem die Praktikabilität eines digitalen Euro, allerdings wären diese Einschränkungen erforderlich, etwa um das Risiko eines (digitalen) Bank-Runs zu reduzieren. Schließlich ist der ambitionierte Zeitplan von EZB und Europäischer Kommission äußerst riskant, da womöglich vorschnell Fakten geschaffen werden, die im Nachhinein nur schwerlich rückgängig gemacht werden können und im Zweifel das zentrale Subsidiaritätsprinzip der EU sowie das Vertrauen der Bürger in die europäischen Institutionen weiter untergraben. |
| Keywords: | Bargeld, Digitalisierung, Eurozone, EZB, Finanzmärkte, Geldpolitik |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwarg:316442 |
| By: | Vladescu, Mihaela-Irma (Institutul National de Cercetari Economice al Academiei Române); Oprea, Mihaela-Georgiana (Institutul National de Cercetari Economice al Academiei Române) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the position of Romania in the context of European Union from the perspective of the transition to a green economy and demographic changes. Starting from the reality of imbalances caused by economic growth policies uncorrelated with environmental protection, the study highlights the importance of the green transition as a strategic solution to current global challenges. The analysis is based on economic and environmental indicators, such as GDP/PPP, CO2 emissions and the share of renewable energy, in parallel with relevant demographic aspects. The results highlight three clusters of EU countries: developed economies with high emissions; developed countries with effective green transition policies; and countries with less developed economies, including Romania. The study recommends the formulation of policies linking investments in sustainable infrastructure with measures to boost demographic and social stability, in line with the 2030 Agenda goals. |
| Keywords: | green economy, sustainable development, demographic change, CO2 emissions, renewable energy |
| JEL: | J11 O38 Q20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ror:seince:250522 |
| By: | Heinemann, Noah; Mölling, Christian; Schütz, Torben |
| Abstract: | Dieses Papier schätzt die Finanzbedarfe der Bundeswehr nach dem NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) 2025. Es sind Investitionen in Höhe von 470 Milliarden Euro nötig, ergänzt durch Betriebskosten. Unsicherheiten in der transatlantischen Bündnistreue und höhere NATO-Anforderungenin Höhe von etwa 230 Milliarden Euro machen einen signifikanten Anstieg der Verteidigungsausgaben erforderlich. Deutschland müsste 2, 6-2, 7 Prozent des BIPs für Verteidigung ausgeben, um diese Anforderungen zu erfüllen. |
| Keywords: | Verteidigung, Investitionen, Update |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:317064 |
| By: | Ritzen, Jo (Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the transformative potential of intra-EU student mobility as a cornerstone for fostering social cohesion, economic resilience, and pan-European identity. By analyzing historical trajectories, policy frameworks (e.g., Erasmus+), and case studies from Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, and Eastern Europe, we argue that achieving 50% intra-EU student mobility by 2035 could counteract nationalist fragmentation, address labor shortages, and catalyze innovation. However, systemic challenges—brain drain, political resistance, linguistic tensions, and funding inequities—necessitate asymmetric funding models, retention incentives, and phased implementation. Drawing on empirical data and policy evaluations, this study proposes a roadmap for harmonizing EU higher education while mitigating regional disparities. While moving forward towards more mobility attention needs to be paid in national policies for national concerns. |
| JEL: | I23 I25 I28 J60 L78 O10 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025012 |
| By: | Becker, Max; Bendiek, Annegret; Kempin, Ronja |
| Abstract: | Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, a process of securitisation of the European Union's (EU) external action can be observed. From an institutional perspective, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) increasingly overlaps with the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). However, this does not solve the problem of a lack of capacity to act in foreign and security policy. On the contrary, the trend towards the securitisation of EU foreign policy is a distraction from the long overdue reform of Europe's capacity to act in foreign and security policy. There are two options to finally improve this: a) a Europeanisation of the European pillar in NATO, and b) a communitarisation of the CFSP and CSDP. |
| Keywords: | Common Foreign and Security Policy, CFSP, Common Security and Defence Policy, CSDP, Green Deal Industrial Plan, ReArm Europe, qualified majority voting, securitization, European Peace Facility, EPF, migration agreement, third country agreement, De-risking, Friend-shoring, Global Gateway, GGS, European Defence Agency, EDA, European Defence Fund, EDF, Preparatory Action on Defence Research, PADR, European Defence Industrial Development Programme, EDIDP, Act in Support of Ammunition Production, ASAP, European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act, EDIRPA, EUMAM |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:316691 |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen; Lennard, Jason |
| Abstract: | The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies between 1300 and 2000. For the sample as a whole, the modern business cycle emerged at the end of the eighteenth century. |
| Keywords: | business cycle; economic growth; Europe |
| JEL: | N10 E32 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120364 |
| By: | Carl Gaigne (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Elsa Leromain (UA - University of Antwerp); Riccardo Norbiato (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Mathieu Parenti (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Giulia Varaschin (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | EU policies promoting higher environmental standards in agriculture are often perceived as a challenge to the sector's economic competitiveness. However, well-designed policies can align the EU's environmental and economic goals, fostering sustainable and inclusive growth. This policy note examines the case of pesticide-reduction targets and finds that competitiveness trade-offs can be mitigated through complementary trade measures. Our analysis highlights that 44% of pesticide use embedded in EU agricultural consumption comes from imports, despite them representing only 16% of the consumption. Particularly striking, a substantial amount of the pesticide use embedded in imports is represented by banned pesticides, exposing a blind spot in current trade policies. Without appropriate safeguards, stricter EU pesticide regulations can shift production to less-regulated markets, undermining global pesticide reduction efforts while disadvantaging EU agriculture. Analysing the potential for policy solutions, we consider different border-adjustment mechanisms, drawing parallels with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Our findings indicate that such measures preserve EU agricultural competitiveness without compromising on environmental ambition. Aligning trade and environmental policies is therefore not only feasible but essential for effectively reducing global pesticide use while safeguarding EU agriculture. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05046970 |