|
on European Economics |
|
Issue of 2025–04–07
28 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Corinna Ghirelli (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Javier J. Pérez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Daniel Santabárbara (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and GDP growth forecast errors and the expected monetary policy stance in the euro area during the monetary policy cycle of 2022-2024, when inflation was well above the ECB’s target. Under rational expectations, forecasts of monetary contractions should be unrelated to subsequent inflation and growth forecast errors. On the contrary, we find that expected monetary policy tightening has been associated with higher than projected GDP growth, suggesting a lower monetary policy effect than that factored in by (ECB/Eurosystem and IMF) forecasters. In other words, forecasters overestimated the monetary multiplier. At the same time, monetary policy tightening has been associated with lower than expected inflation, suggesting an underestimation of the monetary multiplier on inflation. Putting these two stylized facts together implies that forecasters overestimated the sacrifice ratio during the last monetary policy tightening cycle. Our findings suggest that forecasters may have inaccurately perceived the recent inflationary crisis in the euro area as predominantly supply-driven, underestimating its demand-driven component. This led to the belief that monetary policy in the euro area would be exceedingly costly in terms of output. |
| Keywords: | forecast errors, monetary policy multipliers, sacrifice ratio |
| JEL: | C53 E27 E62 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40678 |
| By: | Guido Ascari; Andrea Colciago; Timo Haber; Stefan Wöhrmüller |
| Abstract: | The EU aims for 42.5% green energy consumption by 2030. What are the effects of the European green transition on inequality? We answer this question using a heterogeneous-agent model with non-homothetic preferences for energy and non-energy goods, calibrated to European data. We study the impact of an increase in carbon taxes designed to meet the EU target under different revenue-recycling strategies. Redistributing tax revenues via uniform transfers reduces consumption inequality, shifts the welfare burden to high-income households, but leads to significant output losses. Subsidizing green energy producers boosts energy production, reduces output losses, and requires a smaller carbon tax to meet the EU target. However, it increases consumption and income inequality, with the highest welfare costs borne by low-income and asset-poor households. Our findings highlight key trade-offs between equity and efficiency in green transition policies. |
| Keywords: | Green Transition; Inequality; Carbon Pricing |
| JEL: | Q43 Q52 E6 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:830 |
| By: | Jonas Dominy (Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Claudius Graebner-Radkowitsch (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Institute for Plural Economics, Europa-Universitaet Flennsburg, Germany); Jakob Kapeller (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes developmental trajectories in the EU. In doing so, it diagnoses economic polarization on two different levels: for one, we observe a divergence of average incomes across EU countries as a persistent empirical feature associated with European integration. For another, European economic integration in general and the introduction of the Euro in particular are associated with the emergence of heterogeneous developmental trajectories, which build on, and intensify differences in technological capabilities, institutional and legal setups, as well as labor market characteristics. When clustering countries with reference to similarities in terms of macroeconomic and institutional characteristics across countries, we find evidence for the existence of four distinct development models: core, periphery, and workbench economies, as well as financial hubs. Each of these groups is defined by distinct technological, institutional, and macroeconomic characteristics. Our findings point to suitable ways for extending and refining existing typological approaches, such as the Varieties of Capitalism or the growth model approach, thereby allowing us to better account for the heterogeneity of developmental pathways emerging in the course of an intensifying European race for the best location. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ico:wpaper:159 |
| By: | R. Zelli; M.G. Pittau; A. Vaiano |
| Abstract: | According to the World Bank report (Gill & Raiser, 2012), the EU has become the modern world's greatest "convergence machine". While the process of convergence has been acknowledged at country level, results at regional level are still unclear. Using the most advanced techniques, we assess convergence across European NUTS2 regions over forty years. The distributional dynamic approach unveils different perspectives that traditional methods have overlooked. We conclude that a process of catching-up between low- and middle-income regions has been in progress, while wealthy regions have been drifting away. |
| Keywords: | mixture models;EU regions;Club convergence |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202507 |
| By: | VILLANI Davide (European Commission - JRC); GONZALEZ VAZQUEZ Ignacio (European Commission - JRC); FERNANDEZ MACIAS Enrique (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The green transition is set to transform labour markets, yet its impact remains difficult to measure. This paper critically examines the occupational approach—based on task-based measures—which is the most widely used framework among researchers and institutions for estimating green employment. First, we identify theoretical shortcomings in this approach, emphasizing that its reliance on occupational titles leads to false positives by misclassifying non-green jobs as green, while also producing false negatives by excluding key contributors to the green transition. Second, we highlight methodological issues, such as inconsistent categorizations, arbitrary task definitions, outdated classifications, and the flawed assumption that occupational content remains stable across time and countries. Third, we apply the occupational approach using the O*NET framework to quantify green employment in 24 European countries from 2011 to 2022. Our analysis reveals that, according to this method, there has been virtually no net creation of green jobs in Europe. Moreover, we find no meaningful correlation between the presence of green jobs and various aggregate and sectoral environmental indicators. These findings underscore the fundamental limitations of the occupational approach, suggesting that it is an inadequate tool for assessing the labour market effects of the green transition. We discuss how this measure is suitable for policy benchmarking in the context of the European green transition. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202502 |
| By: | Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo; Nikola Bokan; Fabio Alberto Comazzi; Michele Lenza |
| Abstract: | Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank's introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a simple natural language processing model (Word2Vec), only based on the information and model parameters available as of each press conference. We show that a measure based on such embeddings contributes to improve core inflation forecasts multiple quarters ahead. Other common textual analysis techniques, such as dictionary-based metrics or sentiment metrics do not obtain the same results. The information contained in the embeddings remains valuable for out-of-sample forecasting even after controlling for the central bank inflation forecasts, which are an important input for the introductory statements. |
| Keywords: | embeddings, inflation, forecasting, central bank texts |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1253 |
| By: | Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Herforth, Anna-Lena; Kirschenmann, Karolin; Ravanbakhshhabibabadi, Monireh |
| Abstract: | The greening of the European economy will require large amounts of capital to flow into green projects. As the public sector alone will not be able to achieve this, European capital markets and the European banking system will play an important role in financ- ing the green transition. In this policy brief, we provide evidence on the drivers and barriers for private and institutional inves- tors to engage in financing the green transition from two recent projects funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the ZEW Sponsors' Association, respectively. For private investors, increasing (sustainable) financial lit- eracy is crucial to increase the capital market participation of EU households in general and sustainable investments in particu- lar. Furthermore, reliable and accessible information on sustainable financial products is important to facilitate retail investors' decisions to invest in green projects. For institutional investors, engagement and the integration of sustainability as an integral part of investment decisions seem to be the most promising ways to effectively create impact. For securitization to become a more attractive tool for financing the transition, it should be placed on a level regulatory playing field with other financial prod- ucts with similar risks. And while the new disclosure regulations impose high costs, their impact on sustainability remains un- clear. Overall, policymakers should focus on effective climate policies in the real economy and enabling regulatory frameworks for the financial sector. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:314443 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Financial Regulation & Supervision |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39584 |
| By: | Lucio Pench |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the implications of the recourse to the escape clauses of the Stability and Growth Pact |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_10780 |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia’s own supply cuts, physical damage to the crucial pipeline infrastructure and Ukraine’s reluctance to prolong the gas transit contract. The resulting shock of reduced Russian supplies has primarily been absorbed via energy savings, while gas imports from other countries have increased only insignificantly. The case studies of three Central European EU member states Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary – which had all been highly dependent on Russian gas before the start of the war in Ukraine but have adopted very different diversification strategies over the past few years – suggest that the negative effects from reduced Russian supplies could be minimised through the precautionary measures taken and also because of the interconnected nature of these countries’ gas networks with those of other EU countries. Of the four main pipelines that used to bring Russian gas to Europe before the war, only TurkStream remains in operation, although its future is also potentially uncertain. Against this background, European countries would be well advised to expand their gas storage capacities in order to cushion themselves from any future supply shocks and reduce dependence on short-term price fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | gas dependency, energy consumption, gas storage |
| JEL: | Q4 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:91 |
| By: | Sonali Chowdhry |
| Abstract: | US trade policy has taken a sharp turn away from multilateralism, with sweeping new tariffs posing a serious threat to global supply chains. As the US remains the EU’s largest export market for goods, these measures carry significant repercussions for the bloc. Exports to the US are heavily reliant on a small number of companies and high-value business relationships—making the EU particularly vulnerable to targeted trade measures. In Germany, the top ten business relationships alone account for a fifth of maritime exports to the US. Intra-company trade also plays a crucial role: One quarter of automotive exports from Germany to the US is between business entities with clear common ownership. Simulations further suggest that a transatlantic tariff conflict would halve EU exports to the US and trigger widespread production losses, with Germany’s GDP contracting by approximately 0.33% in the long term. To limit these economic damages and build long-term resilience, the EU should accelerate its export diversification by deepening trade ties with Free Trade Agreement partners and enhancing integration within the single market. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwfoc:11en |
| By: | Sandström, Christian (Linnaeus University); Stenkula, Mikael (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper critically evaluates the European Union’s shift towards large-scale green industrial policies. It highlights the risks of government-directed resource allocation, such as inefficiencies, misaligned incentives, rent-seeking, and lobbying. Politicians and bureaucrats at the EU level lack the ability to identify the future industries, products, and technologies for this policy to work effectively. The EU is not designed to operate large top-down interventions successfully. There is a substantial risk that large amounts of resources will be spent on initiatives that ultimately fail. Instead, this paper emphasizes competition- and technological-neutral frameworks, emissions trading systems, and general policy incentives. The paper concludes that a decentralized, market-driven approach is more sustainable for fostering innovation. |
| Keywords: | New industrial policy; Green investments; Innovation policy; Mission-oriented policies |
| JEL: | H50 L52 O38 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1523 |
| By: | Flavio de Carolis; Vinzenz Peters |
| Abstract: | We investigate how leverage and the debt maturity structure of SMEs influences their resilience to floods. Using a dataset of six million geo-coded firm-year observations across nine European countries and granular flood maps, we employ dynamic difference- in-differences estimators to assess the economic impacts of floods and the mediating effects of leverage and debt maturity. Our findings highlight a non-linear relationship between leverage and resilience. SMEs with high levels of short-term debt and low levels of long-term debt show more severe reductions in their post-flood employment growth. |
| Keywords: | Economic Resilience; Climate Change; Floods; Leverage; Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises |
| JEL: | G32 J21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:832 |
| By: | Aïmane Abdelsalam (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Léo Vigny (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | The 1980s marked the transition from demand-driven Fordist policies to supply-driven ones, emphasizing budgetary discipline and competitiveness. However, this shift did not signal the end of fiscal interventionism but rather its transformation. In this paper, we introduce a novel indicator that encompasses all government-to-business wealth transfers, including direct expenditures and tax expenditures. This new measure offers a clearer picture of the level of government support for businesses. Findings reveal that French public aid surged over three decades, reaching 8% of GDP by 2019, making it the fastest growing budget item since the 1990s. Fiscal policy has not been abandoned in the post-Fordist era; it is now employed as a supply-side strategy rather than a demand-side one. We also evaluate this fiscal policy, showing that while state aid has a limited impact on employment and investment, it significantly boosts corporate margins after the Great Financial Crisis. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, tax expenditures, public aid, sibsidies |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-05000473 |
| By: | Tim de Leeuw; Konstantin M. Wacker (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Foreign direct investment (FDI) is often seen as a means to boost domestic investment and, hence, capital accumulation. Yet, the empirical support for such a positive investment effect of FDI is inconclusive. A possible reason is that FDI is often directed towards the financial sector, where capital investment tends to be low. In this paper, we first explore the within-industry relationship between FDI and domestic investment. We then use a novel approach to analyse how FDI into the financial sector transmits into domestic investment by non-financial industries. Using industry-level FDI and investment data from 12 Central and Eastern European countries between 1997 and 2019, we find that about a quarter of FDI into an industry results in domestic investment. Additionally, we document that industries with close links to the financial sector increase domestic investment in the presence of financial FDI, particularly manufacturing, trade and real estate. |
| Keywords: | investment, capital formation, FDI, foreign direct investment, inter-industry linkages |
| JEL: | F21 F3 E22 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:261 |
| By: | Raza, Werner |
| Abstract: | After decades of marginalization, industrial policy (IP) is back on the political agenda. While this shift in economic policy discourse in principle is to be welcomed, from a worker-oriented economic and political point of view, it is very important to carefully think about the why, how and for whom of industrial policy. What are the motivations for IP, which objectives shall be achieved, who should be the beneficiaries of IP, who shall sit at the table when it comes to taking decisions, and finally, who will be responsible for implementation? Upon the basis of an in-depth analysis of recent EU industrial policy for the Twin Transformation, the report outlines a policy agenda for the next five years that aims to accelerate an inclusive as well as effective Twin Transformation agenda. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefser:313622 |
| By: | Becker, Peter |
| Abstract: | Die europäische Kohäsionspolitik ist eine zentrale Ausgabenpolitik der Europäischen Union, für die rund ein Drittel des EU-Budgets reserviert ist. Mit den Strukturfonds unterstützt die EU die Regionen bei deren Bemühen, Infrastrukturdefizite und Wachstumsschwächen zu beheben, und versucht so den Zusammenhalt unter den Mitgliedstaaten zu festigen. Die Kohäsionspolitik steht unter einem stetigen Legitimations- und Anpassungsdruck, der sich angesichts neuer geopolitischer und geoökonomischer Herausforderungen weiter verstärkt. Ein schleichender Funktionswandel der Politik führt zu fundamentalen Veränderungen der Grundsätze, Aufgaben, Ziele und Prioritäten der bisherigen Kohäsionspolitik. Im Rahmen der nun beginnenden europäischen Haushaltsverhandlungen wird auch die Kohäsionspolitik an die neuen Herausforderungen angepasst werden müssen. Die sich verschärfenden Verteilungskonflikte innerhalb der EU erschweren jedoch diesen Modernisierungsprozess. Die Debatte über Ansatzpunkte und Ziele dieser Reform hat begonnen. Dabei zeichnen sich verschiedene Szenarien für eine Weiterentwicklung der Kohäsionspolitik ab. Ein Ausweg aus der schwierigen Verhandlungssituation könnte ein hybrides Reformmodell sein, mit dem die Kohäsionspolitik an die veränderten Rahmenbedingungen angepasst wird, ohne dass die traditionellen Prinzipien und Ziele aufgegeben werden. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:314424 |
| By: | Heider, Florian; Lindner, Vincent; Pelizzon, Loriana; Tröger, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Die Vertiefung der Banken- und Kapitalmarktunion bleibt ein zentrales, aber unerfülltes Ziel europäischer Wirtschaftspolitik. Trotz regulatorischer Fortschritte verhindern nationale Unterschiede in der Umsetzung sowie der Widerstand einflussreicher Interessengruppen eine echte Integration. Geopolitische Entwicklungen erhöhen die Dringlichkeit: Protektionismus und wirtschaftliche Blockbildung gefährden Europas finanzielle Souveränität. Ohne einen integrierten Kapitalmarkt bleibt die EU wirtschaftlich anfällig. Notwendig ist nicht eine neue Initiative aus Brüssel, sondern die Bereitschaft der Mitgliedstaaten, Souveränität abzugeben und nationale Interessenverbände zu konfrontieren. Die nächste Bundesregierung muss die Finanzmarktintegration aktiv vorantreiben, um wirtschaftliches Wachstum und europäische Resilienz zu sichern. |
| Keywords: | Bankenunion, Kapitalmarktunion, Souveränität, Europäische Integration |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safepl:313016 |
| By: | Stefan Bach |
| Abstract: | Der Solidaritätszuschlag ist dreieinhalb Jahrzehnte nach der Wiedervereinigung nicht mehr mit den Kosten der deutschen Einheit zu rechtfertigen. Soweit er Unternehmensgewinne belastet, sollte er ersatzlos abgeschafft werden. Bei der persönlichen Einkommensteuer und den Kapitaler-tragsteuern sollten dagegen Entlastungen für Besser- und Hochverdienende vermieden werden. Der Solidaritätszuschlag könnte als „Wehrbeitrag“ zur Finanzierung der hohen Verteidigungsaus-gaben umgestaltet werden. Die Freigrenze könnte in einen echten Freibetrag umgewandelt und der Zuschlagssatz auf zum Beispiel acht Prozent erhöht werden. Dies würde Steuerpflichtige bis zu einem zu versteuernden Einkommen von 178 000 Euro entlasten, Spitzenverdienende aber stärker belasten. Mit diesem erneuerten Solidaritätszuschlag ließe sich ein Aufkommen von knapp zehn Milliarden Euro im Jahr erzielen. Befristet auf zehn Jahre könnten damit knapp 100 Milliarden Euro Rüstungskosten finanziert werden. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:116de |
| By: | Jelliffe, Jeremy; Gerval, Adam |
| Abstract: | Brexit marked the beginning of a new era in European trade, with implications for global commerce as the United Kingdom has sought to broaden its import sources for agricultural commodities. Since formally leaving the European Union on January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom has kept strong, but weakening, trade links to the European bloc. This analysis seeks to quantify the degree of change in the trade dynamic across a range of agri-food and related commodity groups. This analysis is done by measuring the difference in trade trends between United Kingdom and the European Union relative to the rest of the world and their average bilateral trade over the last decade. The following is addressed: • Do post-Brexit trends for European Union-United Kingdom agri-food trade differ from their trade with the rest of the world? • Which product categories experienced the largest relative changes? Key findings include: • United Kingdom trade openness is high in agri-food relative to other regions but has contracted since 2016. • Relative to trade with the rest of the world, rates of agri-food trade growth in the European Union and the United Kingdom suggest that both regions are diversifying to other trading partners despite observed increases in bilateral trade. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:355527 |
| By: | Sonali Chowdhry |
| Abstract: | Die USA haben in ihrer Handelspolitik eine deutliche Abkehr vom Multilateralismus vollzogen. Neue, weitreichende Zölle stellen eine ernsthafte Bedrohung für die globalen Lieferketten dar. Da die USA nach wie vor der größte Warenexportmarkt der Europäischen Union (EU) sind, haben diese Maßnahmen erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die EU-Staaten. Die Exporte in die USA hängen in hohem Maße von einer kleinen Anzahl von Unternehmen und guten Geschäftsbeziehungen ab, was die EU besonders anfällig für gezielte Handelsmaßnahmen macht. In Deutschland entfallen allein ein Fünftel der maritimen Exporte in die USA auf die zehn wichtigsten Geschäftsbeziehungen zwischen EU-Exporteuren und US-Importeuren. Auch der unternehmensinterne Handel spielt eine entscheidende Rolle: Ein Viertel der Automobilexporte aus Deutschland in die USA erfolgt zwischen Tochterunternehmen gemeinsamer Eigentümer. Simulationen deuten zudem darauf hin, dass ein trans-atlantischer Zollkonflikt die EU-Exporte in die USA halbieren und weitreichende Produktionseinbußen auslösen würde, wobei das Bruttoinlandsprodukt Deutschlands langfristig um etwa 0, 33 Prozent schrumpfen würde. Um diese wirtschaftlichen Schäden zu begrenzen und eine langfristige Widerstandsfähigkeit aufzubauen, sollte die EU ihre Exporte verstärkt diversifizieren, indem sie ihre Handelsbeziehungen mit Freihandelspartnern vertieft und die Integration innerhalb des EU-Binnenmarkts verbessert. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:117de |
| By: | Catarina Midões (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Enrica De Cian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is bringing abnormally high temperatures to Europe and thus a substantial physical and mental health burden, especially for older populations. We expand the individual longitudinal Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement (SHARE) on the 50+ population in Europe, with heat exposure from gridded datasets and derived household location. We estimate that ten extra days in a year at 31º, an increase predicted for many European regions, without air-conditioning (AC), increases by 3 - 7 p.p. the probability of reporting fatigue, by 2 - 4 p.p. of reporting reduced appetite and by 4 p.p. of reporting difficulties sleeping. It also increases the probability of being irritable by 4 p.p., but the effect is short lived. Ultimately, heat increases the probability of hospitalization by 2 - 4 p.p.. Addressing potential biases in estimating AC's effect, we find that it protects meaningfully against hospitalization risk and especially against fatigue, but not against irritability nor difficulties sleeping. These states are mechanisms behind socio-economic outcomes connected with rising temperatures - cognitive performance, labour productivity, and aggressive behaviours. We find that the effects of heat and AC's protection accrue over time. The evidence of significant residual impacts calls for research on alternative adaptation measures. |
| Keywords: | Climate Adaptation, Air-conditioning, Heat, Well-being, Climate Change |
| JEL: | D12 O13 Q41 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:03 |
| By: | Enriques, Luca; Nigro, Casimiro A.; Tröger, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Policymakers around the globe have sought to stimulate Venture Capital (VC) investments, and an extensive literature has inquired into the institutional determinants of a vibrant VC market, including corporate law. We contribute to that literature by exploring the significance of corporate law for VC contracting and hence VC investments. Corporate law's relative rigidity or flexibility is key to the efficiency of the contractual technology governing VC deals. Importantly, it can hamper such transactions through a number of "constraints, " which we have identified in a companion paper. To illustrate our point, in another companion paper, we take German and Italian corporate laws as two case studies and show how they are largely averse to VC contracting. In addition, we show that the regulatory constraints they impose stem from blackletter corporate law much less often than from scholarly constructs and courts' interpretations. This chapter anticipates two objections that cast doubt over the importance of our findings as to the construction of vibrant VC markets in Germany and Italy. Specifically, the first of these objections is that VC funds and entrepreneurs planning to run their startups in Germany and Italy can circumvent the strictures of local corporate laws by incorporating abroad, and the other is that formal contracts are inconsequential in VC deals, meaning that the regulatory constraints we document are irrelevant. Meanwhile, the chapter also shows that the detailed understanding of regulatory constraints unveiled by our research can inform more effective policymaking. Ultimately, we make two policy recommendations: first, we propose the adoption of a statutory provision that would explicitly insulate the arrangements that typically shape U.S. VC deals from undue interventions; and, second, we argue in favor of a standard charter aligned with U.S. VC transactional practice that the law itself should declare entirely enforceable. |
| Keywords: | Comparative Corporate Law, Comparative Corporate Governance, Entrepreneurship, Financial Contracting, Private Ordering, Startups, Venture Capital, Entrepreneurial Finance |
| JEL: | G38 K22 L26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:313650 |
| By: | Keogh, Colin; O'Sullivan, Pat; Albanis, Vassilios; Frizzell, Ronan; Durkin, Patrick; Roupas, Christos; Rainbird, Jenny |
| Abstract: | In the realm of EU-funded research projects, patenting innovations has historically presented multifaceted challenges, from alignment with strategic priorities to ensuring commercial viability. This paper introduces the IPF Method, a holistic approach developed over years of experience by the Inlecom team, having filed 50+ patents across both commercial and EU-funded research undertakings. The method uniquely emphasises a three-pronged assessment: technological novelty, market relevance, and strategic alignment with the European Commission's objectives. Through a comprehensive exploration, this paper highlights how the IPF approach can transform the trajectory of EU research innovations, ensuring they transcend academic archives to realise tangible market impact. While its transformative potential is evident, the method's challenges, such as evolving EC priorities and subjectivity in project review evaluations, are also dissected. Recommendations for refining and scaling the approach are proffered, emphasising feedback mechanisms, stakeholder training, and continuous refinement. The paper concludes with the assertion that the IPF Method, with its integration of commercial foresight and strategic alignment, can serve as a beacon for future EU research patenting endeavours. |
| Date: | 2023–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dj267_v1 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Energy-Energy Demand Energy-Energy Markets Energy-Energy Production and Transportation Energy-Energy Resources Development |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41134 |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki |
| Abstract: | Abstract The United States has proposed large tariff increases, which will probably also apply to the EU. The majority of exports from both Finland and the EU to the United States consist of goods, which would be subject to customs duties. Conversely, the bulk of US exports to the EU are services. Consequently, the EU’s retaliatory actions targeting US service exports would be more effective than counter tariffs on imports of goods alone. Roughly estimated, Finland’s GDP would fall by 0.5–1.6% if the US raised tariffs on all products to 25%. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Trade policy, Tariff, Geoeconomics, the United States |
| JEL: | F15 F12 F41 L5 |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:155 |
| By: | ALOISI Antonio |
| Abstract: | The green and digital transitions are increasingly described as the ‘twin transition’ in EU policy documents, social partners’ strategic plans and academic debates. However, the exact meaning of this term remains ambiguous, and the interconnections between these transitions are largely unexplored. This paper aims to clarify the motivations and pitfalls behind their ‘twinning’ and assess where and how their convergence might be successful. It considers the socioeconomic risks, policy trade-offs and implications for the future of work. The analysis covers major EU employment and social policy developments concerning workers’ environmental and digital rights, as enshrined in legislation that presents a ‘mix’ between two distinct legal areas. A key finding is that the transitions are often treated as separate rather than integrated phenomena, with limited direct spillovers. However, despite shifts in institutional agendas and inconsistencies in understanding, the underlying priorities remain deeply entrenched. This paper identifies regulatory gaps and rigidities that maintain outdated, inflexible and hierarchical organisational paradigms, which are ill-suited to the demands of the twin transitions. It also calls for regenerating labour regulation to foster positive interactions and modernisation of work practices. The proposed normative changes should promote worker-oriented flexibility, universal labour protection and worker participation in technological and green initiatives, paving the way for more sustainable working arrangements. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202501 |