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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2025–01–27
38 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Jérôme Creel (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Francesco Saraceno (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | The last fifteen years have seen a succession of crises which have put European integration to the test and polarized the political landscape.After the serious errors made in managing the sovereign debt crisis, the widening divergences between European countries, and the sluggish growth that followed, European decision-makers reacted with altogether greater efficiency to the crisis born of the pandemic. At the cost of mounting debt, national fiscal policies supported jobs, household incomes and corporate solvency by providing aid during the periods of forced inactivity. In the meantime, the European Central Bank (ECB) set up securities purchase programmes and provided backing for the banking sector to alleviate pressure on the financial and sovereign debt markets. Finally, the European Commission arranged soft loan programmes to support government spending that targeted the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic (health care and the labour market). These efforts were crowned with success and largely explain the economic rebound following the lockdowns.The responsiveness of the European authorities, surprising given the inertia shown during previous crises, carried over into the medium-and long-term orientation embodied both in the Next Generation EU (NGEU) programme of investment in the ecological and digital transitions as well as in the tool put in place by the ECB to avoid widening spreads and protect member states' public finances, the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI).This Policy brief takes a broadly positive view of the policies and institutional developments implemented over the past four years: the European Union (EU) and the eurozone have managed to bounce back from the crisis and embark on a long-term investment programme which, despite its inevitable shortcomings, is succeeding in meeting its goals. But the EU has also had its share of failures. The disappointment of the European Stability Mechanism's (ESM) dedicated credit line for healthcare expenditure demonstrates the need to reorganize the assistance provided by European institutions to member states. Above all, resistance to a perennization of the NGEU programme or, more generally, to the creation of borrowing and spending capacity at European level, coupled with a very disappointing reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, continues to pose the problem of creating the fiscal space to meet the EU's future needs, whether in terms of industrial and transition policies, macroeconomic stabilization, or the provision of global public goods such as health care and education. Finally, the nature of the inflationary shock has shown that macroeconomic and structural policies need to be coordinated to cope with multidimensional shocks, which raises the question of the anachronistic nature of the ECB's single mandate on price stability |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04816678 |
| By: | Simon Vrecar; Sven Schade (European Commission - JRC); Eva Martinez Rodriguez (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report provides an in-depth analysis of the roles, interactions, and collaborative frameworks among actors under the Interoperable Europe Act (IOPE Act). Through extensive stakeholder analysis and engagement methodologies - including policy discussions, workshops, and expert group consultations - the report delineates a comprehensive model of relationships among actors from EU Member States, European institutions, and relevant actors, aiming to enhance interoperability across the EU's digital public services. Key to this initiative is the Interoperable Europe Community, which leverages diverse stakeholder contributions to promote effective and seamless service delivery. The report identifies the main roles and expected contributions of stakeholders, exploring how the Interoperable Europe Board, Member States, and other actors coordinate and implement interoperability standards. The findings emphasize the necessity for strategic collaboration and proactive engagement within the community to achieve the objectives of the IOPE Act, ultimately facilitating a more integrated European digital single market. This report not only supports EU policymakers by providing actionable insights into enhancing interoperability but also stresses the policy relevance of fostering a coherent digital ecosystem responsive to the needs of European citizens and businesses. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139798 |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi (Department of Economics, University of Miami) |
| Abstract: | We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011- 2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level in Europe, we find that on average employment shares have increased in occupations more exposed to AI. This is particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers. This evidence is in line with the Skill Biased Technological Change theory. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, only very few countries show a decline in employment shares of occupations more exposed to AI-enabled automation. Country heterogeneity for this result seems to be linked to the pace of technology diffusion and education, but also to the level of product market regulation (competition) and employment protection laws. In contrast to the findings for employment, we find little evidence for a relationship between wages and potential exposures to new technologies. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, employment, skills, occupations |
| JEL: | J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mia:wpaper:wp2023-01.rdf |
| By: | Andreas Eisl (CEE - Centre d'études européennes et de politique comparée (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut Jacques Delors) |
| Abstract: | The recent shift towards industrial policy in Europe creates tensions with the Single Market and its competition policy paradigm. In this policy paper I argue that only a more European industrial policy will be capable to address the various internal and external economic challenges the EU is facing while also safeguarding the functioning of the Single Market, one of the EU's key public goods. In order to work, this European industrial policy needs more common financing, common governance mechanisms and capacities, as well as common conditionalities. First, this paper calls for the creation of an EU industrial policy fund whose financing should be based on two pillars, an (1) initial endowment preferably based on common debt and own resources, and (2) arrangements to make the fund self-sustainable over time. These arrangements include an EU state aid contribution and profit-sharing mechanisms. Second, the existing state aid instruments need to become consolidated, simpler, and better integrated. Due to its comparatively European approach, the IPCEI model could serve as a blueprint for the future governance of the various EU industrial policy objectives. To function adequately, any EU industrial policy governance needs to be supported by common capacity building, covering public administrations and private enterprises. Finally, the intelligent and consistent use of common conditionalities is key to ensure that subsidies lead to the achievement of public policy objectives while limiting corporate welfare and state-aid shopping across the EU. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy -- Europe Union Countries, Competition policy, Single Market, Competitiveness, Financing, Governance, Conditionalities |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04834598 |
| By: | Matteo Barigozzi; Claudio Lissona; Matteo Luciani |
| Abstract: | The decomposition of GDP into potential output—the level of output consistent with current technologies and "normal" use of capital and labor—and the output gap—the percentage deviation of GDP from its potential—is a fundamental task for policymakers. Potential output tells us how fast an economy can grow in the long run; the output gap helps assess the cyclical position of the economy and, thus, potential inflationary pressures (Jarociński and Lenza, 2018). |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-01-10-3 |
| By: | Armin Steinbach; Guntram Wolff |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/386998 |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik; Yueshu Zhao |
| Abstract: | European electricity markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes—caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of renewable sources of energy. Using high-frequency data, this paper investigates volatility spillovers across 24 countries in the European Union (EU) during the period 2014–2024 to provide a better understanding of the transmission of risks in an international context. We develop both a static and a dynamic assessment of spillover effects and directional decomposition between individual countries. Our main findings show that about 73 percent of the forecast error variation is explained by cross-variance shares, which means only 27 percent can be attributed to shocks within each country. In other words, cross-border volatility spillovers dominate the behavior in national electricity markets in Europe—and this effect has grown over time. We also implement an augmented gravity model of bilateral volatility spillovers across power markets in the EU. Altogether, these results provide important insights to policymakers and regulators with regards to greater integration of electricity markets and infrastructure improvements that would also help with the transition to low-carbon sources of power generation and strengthen energy security in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices; Volatility; Spillovers; Gravity model; Renewable energy; Electricity market reform; Europe |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/007 |
| By: | Burlon, Lorenzo; Ferrari, Alessandro; Kho, Stephen; Tushteva, Nikoleta |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the recalibration of ECB’s outstanding central bank funding in 2022, we show that a sharp reabsorption of bank liquidity induces a tightening impact on credit supply, as intended when centralbanks reduce their balance sheets. The tightening originates from the sudden relative convenience for banks accustomed to large liquidity holdings to more rapidly adapt to the new environment. Moreover, we show that the associated reduction in credit supply has real economic effects. JEL Classification: E51, E52, G21 |
| Keywords: | banking, credit supply, liquidity, monetary policy, QT |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253010 |
| By: | Sylvia Schwaag-Serger; Luc Soete; Johan Stierna (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This scientific report builds on fifteen science for policy concept papers elaborated for the JRC by nineteen independent individual expert within a pool named “Implementing a fair and sustainable economy”. In light of the findings in the Draghi report and the emerging new EU policy agenda, this report analyses synergies and common lines of reflection shared by several experts. Based on their science for policy outcomes, three cross-cutting themes are identified: the new EU industrial policy, the implementation gap of the EU, and different angles to increased security in the EU. The experts stress the importance of understanding and addressing trade-offs between the EU policy goals of competitiveness, sustainability, fairness and security. They reflect on new requirements of science for policy in times of deep transformation; they elaborate on the structural pillars for a new industrial policy; they reflect on the conditions for disruptive innovation and systemic transitions; and they analyse spill over from a comprehensive approach to EU’s new search for security. In all these areas, the experts explore openings for a territorial articulation of the EU-level initiatives in Member States, regions and with citizens. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140513 |
| By: | Di Mauro, Filippo; Matani, Marco; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. |
| Abstract: | Based on the sufficient statistics approach developed by Huang and Ottaviano (2024), we show how the state of technology of European industries relative to the rest of the world can be empirically assessed in a way that is simple in terms of computation, parsimonious in terms of data requirements, but still comprehensive in terms of information. The lack of systematic cross-industry correlation between export specialization and technological advantage suggests that standard measu-res of revealed comparative advantage only imperfectly capture a country's tech-nological prowess due to the concurrent influences of factor prices, market size, markups, firm selection and market share reallocation. |
| Keywords: | comparative advantage, European cross-country data, firm heterogeneity, international trade, monopolistic competition, multi-product firms, productivity |
| JEL: | B17 C19 C51 C80 D21 D43 F02 F12 F14 F61 L13 L25 O49 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhcom:308809 |
| By: | Elisabeth Nindl (European Commission - JRC); Lorenzo Napolitano (European Commission - JRC); Hugo Confraria (European Commission - JRC); Francesco Rentocchini (European Commission - JRC); Peter Fako (European Commission - JRC); James Gavigan (European Commission - JRC); Alexander Tuebke (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2024 edition of “The EU Industrial Research & Development (R&D) Investment Scoreboard” continues in the 21st year to monitor and analyse industrial R&D investment trends in the context of the EU’s 3% of GDP R&D investment policy target, which is a key performance indicator of the EU’s long-term competitiveness. As emphasised in the recent ‘Draghi’ report, it is crucial for the EU to substantially increase private R&D investments in order to tackle our historic productivity gaps with respect to main global competitors. The 2024 Scoreboard’s monitors the world's top 2 000 R&D investors, responsible for over three quarters of R&D performed by the business sector globally, based on the financial information in the firms’ latest published audited accounts. Chapter 2 analyses the main global trends and benchmarks the EU’s top R&D investing companies against global competitors. Chapter 3 provides details per sector, and chapter 4 deep-dives on a subsample of the EU’s top 800 R&D investing firms. Chapter 5 analyses the R&D productivity from a long-term perspective, and combines the sample with data on Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) to delve into corporate innovation strategies. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140129 |
| By: | Ferrazzi, Matteo; Schanz, Jochen; Wolski, Marcin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the state of innovation in Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern EU countries. Despite increased innovation capacity, the region faces significant challenges threatening its growth and competitiveness, including severe skills shortages, uneven productivity, and barriers to commercialising innovation. The paper highlights the role of foreign direct investment in driving innovation, noting that firms established through greenfield investments exhibit higher productivity than their domestic counterparts. Contributing to the skills shortage are low public R&D spending, insufficient corporate investment in continuing education, and emigration. Limited collaboration between universities and businesses and a shortage of risk capital are key obstacles to bringing innovative ideas to market. To address these challenges, the paper recommends various measures to improve the availability of skilled labour, secure risk capital, foster collaboration between academia and industry, and enhance the overall business environment. Dashboards illustrate how innovation capacity and outcomes vary between CESEE countries, combining data from the EIB's Investment Survey with a range of firm-level public and private datasets. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, competitiveness, EU-CESEE, CESEE, central, eastern and south-eastern Europe, economic growth, EU accession |
| JEL: | O11 O52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:308812 |
| By: | Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200, 000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables us to estimate the effect of both positive and negative deviations of inflation from the 2% target on ITC. In contrast to the symmetry of the ECB's inflation target, we find that ITC is asymmetric, i.e. consumers respond significantly and plausibly signed to target deviations only when inflation is above target. When inflation is below target, however, the credibility of the inflation target cannot be improved by raising the inflation rate to close the gap. |
| Keywords: | Credibility of Inflation Targets, Consumer Inflation Expectations, Expectation Formation |
| JEL: | D84 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:308802 |
| By: | Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Elliot Aurissergues (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Bruno Coquet (DARES - Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Elsa Feltz; Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | The OFCE's forecast for France's GDP growth in the coming years is 1.1% for 2024 and 0.8% for 2025. The impact of the violent shocks experienced by the French economy is gradually fading, as can be seen by slowing inflation, which should average 1.5% in 2025. This will permit the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, which will boost the economy in 2025 by 0.4 point of GDP. The deterioration in the public finances was not well anticipated, which, amidst today's political instability, will require a sharp tightening of the budget. Reducing the structural deficit will trim the economy by 0.8 GDP point in 2025. |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04816706 |
| By: | Pascal Ricordel (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université) |
| Abstract: | A common statement found in regional policy reports is that regional growth is an "export or die" issue. However, the succession of disruptions in the international supply chain has highlighted the crucial roles of domestic activities, local markets and short supply chains, turning the environmental and resilience challenge present in growth policy into a "domestic or die" issue. Recent regional growth theories have seriously questioned export activity as the only way in which to drive regional growth and have highlighted the crucial role of the domestic sector. However, no empirical study has assessed the roles of the domestic and export sectors in growth during this troubled economic period, despite the usefulness of this information for nonbiased policy decisions. Using a spatial endogenous regional growth model as a framework, we investigate the role of the domestic sector during the 1999–2014 period for 263 European Union (EU) Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) regions. The results stress the importance of domestic productivity for regional growth during this period, which is characterized by three economic shocks, thereby elucidating the importance of domestic productivity for competitiveness and resilience issues. |
| Keywords: | domestic export sectors economic base theory endogenous growth model regional Dutch disease regional growth regional resilience spatial model, domestic export sectors, economic base theory, endogenous growth model, regional Dutch disease, regional growth, regional resilience, spatial model |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04841821 |
| By: | Kochen, Federico |
| Abstract: | To what extent can private firms’ external equity substitute for debt financing in a banking crisis? To answer this question, I use firm-level data and firm-bank linkages to estimate the causal effect of an imported lending cut from a large German bank on firms’ capital structure and real outcomes. The estimates imply that for every 1 euro reduction in debt, private firms in Germany received 0.27 euros of external equity. Firm-owner linkages indicate that outsiders provided equity funds in 40% of the firms that received an equity injection, while existing owners provided the funds in the rest. These findings highlight the importance of multiple sources of financing that can serve as backup facilities when the primary source of intermediation fails. The results also have implications for Macro-Finance heterogeneous firm models that typically overlook the role of equity financing. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G32, E32, E44 |
| Keywords: | banking crisis, capital and ownership structure, equity financing |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253008 |
| By: | Marzia Sesini (Florence School of Regulation, European University Institute); Anna Cretì (Chaire économie du climat - Chaire économie du climat, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Olivier Massol (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School, CentraleSupélec, City University of London) |
| Abstract: | The scaling up of renewable gases is now being presented as a critical and effective component of the EU's long-term decarbonization strategy. Yet, the support schemes implemented for biogas and biomethane are far less studied than the ones dedicated to renewable power generation (e.g., solar or wind). This work bridges this gap by reviewing the supporting policies implemented in the EU and conducting a retrospective comparative analysis of the mechanisms implemented in Germany, Denmark, and Italy. The analysis is based on primary data extracted from policy statements that have been harmonized. Results show that incentivizing the supply side lowers the risk associated with early investments and market development. Conversely, they highlight inhomogeneity among countries in accounting for demand and end-use in their policies. Finally, they point at the availability of feedstock and the geographic and economic structure of a country as factors influencing the development of a market for renewable gases. The analysis stresses the value of policy mix in promoting biogas and biomethane in the EU's energy mix, and it hinges on the importance of scrutinizing sectoral massification, novel business models, infrastructure integration, and enhanced financial accessibility to improve their competitiveness and market advancement within the energy landscape. |
| Keywords: | Renewable gas, Biomethane, Biogas, Policy mix, Subsidies, Comparative analysis |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04779838 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade (excluding intra-EU-27 trade) in poultry meat amounted to 23.9 billion euros in 2021. On the export side, three quarters of this amount were accounted for by just four players: Brazil (29.5%), the USA (18.2%), the EU-27 (14.2%) and Thailand (12.7%). While these countries already occupied a central position in 2000 (with 79% of total exports), the weight of Brazil has increased significantly, unlike that of the USA and the EU-27. On the import side, the level of concentration is less clear-cut, with 41% of global flows in 2021 coming from the top four players, namely China (12.6%), Japan (12.5%), the UK (10.2%) and the EU-27 (5.6%). In 2022, the EU-27 trade balance in poultry meat reached 2.12 billion euros. EU-27 exports went mainly to the UK (58.6% of the total in 2022), followed by Switzerland (4.7%), Ghana (3.7%) and Saudi Arabia (3.7%). Imports into the EU-27 came mainly, in 2022, from Brazil (35.1%), Thailand (26.7%) and Ukraine (10.7%), the latter gaining market share in recent years. Within the EU-27, the two Member States with the largest poultry meat surpluses in 2022 were Poland (4.4 billion euros) and the Netherlands (1.3 billion euros). France, which has seen its trade balance deteriorate sharply over the last two decades, has become the EU-27 member state with the biggest deficit (-1.14 billion euros in 2022, compared with +1.15 billion euros in 2000). Imports now cover a large share of domestic consumption (42% of volumes in 2022). By mobilizing three complementary customs databases (BACI, COMEXT and French Customs), over a long period (since 2000), the aim here is to highlight the main trends in the poultry meat trade (in terms of both value and volume), at different geographical scales (world, EU-27 and France). |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial (hors échanges intra-Union européenne -UE-27-) de viande de volailles s'est élevé à 23, 9 milliards d'euros en 2021. A l'export, les trois quarts de ce montant étaient le fait de seulement quatre acteurs : le Brésil (29, 5%), les Etats-Unis (18, 2%), l'UE-27 (14, 2%) et la Thaïlande (12, 7%). Si ces pays occupaient déjà une place centrale dès 2000 (avec 79% du total des exportations), le poids du Brésil a nettement augmenté contrairement à celui des Etats-Unis et de l'UE-27. A l'import, le niveau de concentration est moins net, 41% des flux mondiaux de 2021 résultant des quatre premiers acteurs, à savoir la Chine (12, 6%), le Japon (12, 5%), le Royaume-Uni (10, 2%) et l'UE-27 (5, 6%). En 2022, le solde commercial de l'UE-27 en viande de volailles atteignait 2, 12 milliards d'euros. Les exportations de l'UE-27 étaient surtout orientées vers le Royaume-Uni (58, 6% du total en 2022), les pays qui arrivaient ensuite étant la Suisse (4, 7%), le Ghana (3, 7%) et l'Arabie Saoudite (3, 7%). De leur côté, les importations de l'UE-27 résultaient, en 2022, pour l'essentiel du Brésil (35, 1%), de la Thaïlande (26, 7%) et de l'Ukraine (10, 7%), ce dernier pays gagnant des parts de marché depuis quelques années. Au sein de l'UE-27, les deux Etats membres les plus excédentaires en viande de volailles étaient, en 2022, la Pologne (4, 4 milliards d'euros) et les Pays-Bas (1, 3 milliard d'euros). La France, qui a enregistré une forte dégradation de sa balance commerciale au fil des deux dernières décennies, est devenue l'Etat membre de l'UE-27 le plus déficitaire (avec -1, 14 milliard d'euros en 2022 contre +1, 15 milliard d'euros en 2000). Les importations couvrent désormais une large part de la consommation intérieure (42% des volumes en 2022). En mobilisant trois bases de données complémentaires issues des douanées (BACI, COMEXT et les Douanes françaises), sur une période longue (depuis 2000), l'objectif poursuivi ici est de mettre en évidence les principales tendances à l'oeuvre dans le commerce de viande de volailles (tant en valeur qu'en volume), ce à différentes échelles géographiques (monde, UE-27 et France). |
| Keywords: | Poultry, Trade, Competitiveness, Volailles, Commerce, Echanges, Compétitivité |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04835283 |
| By: | Zenne Hellinga; Julia Bachtrögler-Unger; Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | The Smart Specialization Strategy (S3) is a cornerstone of the EU’s Cohesion Policy, with over €61 billion allocated for Research & Innovation from 2014 to 2020. This paper explores the prioritization of technological domains within regional S3 strategies and their influence on funding allocation of the European Regional Development Fund. Our findings indicate that while regions select a broad range of S3 priorities, they tend to prioritize those more related to their existing technological capabilities. This is particularly true for less developed andtransition regions. The lack of selectivity in S3 strategies appears to be mitigated when these priorities are converted into funding allocations. There we observe that funding allocation appears to align more closely with regional capabilities than initial S3 priorities. We also find that, although the complexity of technologies is somewhat considered in selecting S3 priorities, it seems to gain importance when regions dedicate their funding to specific R&I projects. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Peter Benczur (European Commission - JRC); Juliana Subtil; Tahnee Ooms (European Commission - JRC); Shaun Mark Da Costa (European Commission - JRC); Krzysztof Kania; Catherine Ganzleben; Alessia Fulvimari; Ramona Samson |
| Abstract: | A competitive and resilient Europe requires a systemic transition that fosters economic circularity and far-reaching societal ad-justments. These measures must acknowledge the complexity of wellbeing. Its adequate use for policy and governance requires a system thinking approach. Transforming our socio-economic model re-quires innovations going well beyond the traditional focus on science and technology. The EU’s pursuit of a sustainable transition can only succeed if Europe manages to transform its economies, while remaining globally competitive and resilient.Europe has a unique model to build on that combines competitiveness with addressing inequalities. A just and fair transition considers the social aspects of sustainability and ensures the affordable wellbeing of current and future generations. To ensure the wellbeing of its citizens amid various global challenges, Europe must har-ness the power of innovation. Innovation is increasingly playing a key role to genuinely achieve the ambitious shift towards a new EU growth model, fundamentally transforming mar-kets by creating new ones or improving existing ones. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139898 |
| By: | Alicia De Quinto Notario (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This policy brief draws on the survey data to analyse the socio-economic conditions of FEAD beneficiaries, with a focus on key demographic trends and regional disparities.The analysis focuses on six countries—Belgium, Spain, Finland, Hungary, Poland, and Romania - that provided detailed regional data, enabling a nuanced exploration of localized poverty dynamics and the impact of FEAD interventions. Across the six countries analysed women make up the majority of FEAD beneficiaries (67.6%), with individuals aged 25–49 comprising the largest group (43.8%). However, distinct patterns emerge across countries, reflecting specific re-gional vulnerabilities and demographics. Food packages are the primary form of FEAD aid, reaching 86.8% of recipients. Additional support includes hygiene kits, clothing, and other essential goods, with variations in availability and distribution across countries and regions. While 91% of FEAD beneficiaries report stable housing, significant regional disparities persist. Precarious housing conditions are more preva-lent in Romania and Poland, contrasting with near-universal housing stability in Hungary and Finland. FEAD assistance is widely perceived as effec-tive, with 74.8% of beneficiaries rating it as “helpful”. Most beneficiaries rely on social benefits or household members' income rather than labour earnings, emphasizing the critical role of social safety nets in supporting at-risk populations with low work intensity. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140588 |
| By: | Grasso, Adriana; Poinelli, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Flexibility has progressively become a distinctive feature of the implementation of the Eurosystem’s asset purchases. In its many manifestations, flexibility has also been used by asset managers in the daily selection of sovereign bonds to limit the impact of asset purchases on repo market specialness. This study shows that, since the inception of the Public Sector Purchase Programme, flexible purchases of bonds greatly mitigated the Eurosystem’s footprint on the repo market. JEL Classification: E50, E52, E58, G10, G18 |
| Keywords: | asset purchases, flexibility, market neutrality, repo, specialness |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253013 |
| By: | Gillian Foster (European Commission - JRC); Robert Marschinski (European Commission - JRC); Martin Calisto Friant; Beatrice Laipute; Thomas King; Thomas B. Fischer; Simonas Gausas; Austeja Svedkauskiene; Ella Langham |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic impacts of Circular Economy (CE) policies, particularly those that are not easily quantifiable, are frequently overlooked. To address this shortcoming, a comprehensive Typology of Socioeconomic Impacts is developed in this work, which encompasses a wide range of identified impacts as well as providing insights into policy objectives, measures, economic sectors and products. The aim of this study is to offer lessons learned and recommendations to improve CE policymaking in the EU by making the scope and depth of socioeconomic impact assessments more comprehensive. It provides good practice examples from the literature analysed, EU impact assessments and evaluations as well as from international organisations, national and local governments and civil society. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140305 |
| By: | Koski, Heli; Wang, Maria |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of public subsidies on firms in energy-intensive industries, focusing on R&D subsidies and compensation subsidies. Using firm-level data from Finnish energy-intensive industries between 2010 and 2022, it examines how these subsidies influence firm competitiveness and innovation outcomes. Compensation subsidies, designed to alleviate the additional electricity costs imposed by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on firms operating in certain energy-intensive industries, and to enhance their international competitiveness show no significant effects on employment, value added, or labor productivity. R&D subsidies, instead, demonstrate a substantial positive impact on innovation. Specifically, R&D subsidies significantly increase the citation stocks of climate change mitigation technology patents filed with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). Total patent citation stocks associated with the European Patent Office (EPO) and USPTO also show statistically significant growth. |
| Keywords: | Firm subsidy, R&D subsidies, EU ETS, Competitiveness, Green innovation, Patents |
| JEL: | D22 H23 L52 O3 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:125 |
| By: | Joep Konings; Aaron Putseys |
| Abstract: | We assess how subsidies for on-the-job training affect firm performance. Using a difference-in- differences research design, we find that these subsidies positively influence firm size, wages, and productivity. Over four years, employment increases by 3.55%, value added by 5.68%, and labor costs by 3.60%. Average wages and labor productivity grow by 1.95% and 2.12%, respec- tively. In the first year of treatment, a notable discrepancy exists between the wage (1.21%) and productivity (2.18%) effects, indicating incomplete rent-sharing. These positive effects are primarily seen in smaller firms, which significantly increase training expenditures and hours in the year they receive subsidies, resulting in more trained and skilled workers. Larger firms do not show similar effects, highlighting the possibility that these firms relabel existing training ac- tivities to take advantage of the training subsidy program. Additionally, we find that subsidies focused on training in human resource management, logistics, and business skills drive these positive outcomes for firm size at the firm level. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Programme evaluation, SMEs growth, Training subsidies |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:vivwps:757420 |
| By: | Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Cette étude se propose d'évaluer les conséquences de la hausse rapide des taux d'intérêt des crédits à l'habitat sur l'investissement des ménages et les prix immobiliers dans cinq pays européens (Allemagne, Espagne, France, Italie et Royaume-Uni) à l'aide de modèles à correction d'erreur (MCE). Directement ou indirectement via les prix immobiliers, nous estimons que la hausse des taux a largement amputé l'investissement des ménages en Europe, de l'ordre de 15 points en Allemagne ou au Royaume-Uni, et de 12 points en Espagne et en Italie. La France, où l'effet de la hausse des taux a été moins négatif (9, 5 points) et où l'investissement des ménages aurait baissé même sans ladite hausse, se distingue de ses voisins. |
| Keywords: | Investissement ménages taux d'intérêt logement immobilier Europe, Investissement, ménages, taux d'intérêt, logement, immobilier, Europe |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04821409 |
| By: | Milene Tessarin; Ron Boschma; Deyu Li; Sergio Petralia |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an evolutionary perspective on regional development traps that centers around the structural inability of regions to develop new and complex occupations. Using European Labor Force Survey data, we follow occupational trajectories of 237 European regions and provide evidence on which regions are trapped, what kinds of traps they have fallen into, and which regions have managed to escape such traps. We find a clear-cut divide in Europe: almost all non-trapped regions are in Northern and Western Europe, while trapped regions are found primarily in South and Eastern Europe. However, this geographical divide does not apply to all types of regional traps. Our results also show that regional development traps are persistent: regions often remain in the same trap, but not always. Our study suggests a feasible pathway for low-complexity regions to overcome a development trap is by building capabilities in related occupations and then diversify into complex occupations. Once complexity levels are high, regions tend not to lose their complexity. |
| Keywords: | regional development traps, evolutionary traps, occupations, relatedness, complexity, low complexity trap, structural trap |
| JEL: | J24 J82 R11 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Samira Rousselière (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, IRSTV - Institut de Recherche en Sciences et Techniques de la Ville - FR 2488 - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - UA - Université d'Angers - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - ULR - La Rochelle Université - Cerema - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement - Ecole Supérieure des Géomètres et Topographes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INSIS - CNRS - Institut des Sciences de l'Ingénierie et des Systèmes - CNRS Ingénierie - Air Pays de la Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ENSA Nantes - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique); Thomas Coisnon (Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, IRSTV - Institut de Recherche en Sciences et Techniques de la Ville - FR 2488 - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - UA - Université d'Angers - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - ULR - La Rochelle Université - Cerema - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement - Ecole Supérieure des Géomètres et Topographes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INSIS - CNRS - Institut des Sciences de l'Ingénierie et des Systèmes - CNRS Ingénierie - Air Pays de la Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ENSA Nantes - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Mahmoud Hassan (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne Musson (ESSCA - ESSCA – École supérieure des sciences commerciales d'Angers = ESSCA Business School, SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Damien Rousselière (Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, IRSTV - Institut de Recherche en Sciences et Techniques de la Ville - FR 2488 - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - UA - Université d'Angers - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - ULR - La Rochelle Université - Cerema - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement - Ecole Supérieure des Géomètres et Topographes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INSIS - CNRS - Institut des Sciences de l'Ingénierie et des Systèmes - CNRS Ingénierie - Air Pays de la Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ENSA Nantes - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The various versions of the Porter hypothesis suggest that well-designed environmental public policies may have positive effects on eco-innovation adoption and on the profitability of enterprises on the long run. However, these effects may be heterogeneous depending on the eco-innovation at stake and influenced by the other enterprises in competition. Using a repeated cross-country European survey on SME, we estimate mixed Ordered Probit with correlated random effects and sample selection. We are able to disentangle direct and indirect determinants of costs while accounting for the internal, contextual and public policies levers of ecoinnovation adoption. While testing the three versions of Porter's hypothesis, we extend previous work by taking into account the heterogeneous impact of different eco-innovations on profitability, on the one hand, and the impact of eco-innovation adoption by one firm on another, on the other hand. Our results have valuable policy implications for policymakers and SMEs. |
| Keywords: | Eco-innovation, Environmental Policy Stringency, European survey, Porter Hypothesis, Production Costs |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04810500 |
| By: | Gallo, Giovanni; Nagore García, Amparo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the retirement response to the pandemic and to the resulting acceleration in the adoption of new technologies. Using the European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions datasets and leveraging the natural experiment of many workers being forced to work from home in Europe during the lockdown, we compare the retirement response of older workers in digital occupations (i.e. more exposed to the accelerated adoption of new technologies) versus non-digital occupations to detect any differences in retirement behavior, which we interpret as digitalization effects. In addition, we analyze changes in retirement decisions by gender and geographic area. We find that retirement rates increased during COVID-19 in Europe, especially in Mediterranean countries and among women. This trend may be linked to gender occupational segregation. In Mediterranean countries, digitalization increases female retirement, likely due to challenges in balancing digital work and family responsibilities while working from home. In Eastern countries, and to a lesser extent in Northern countries, digitalization leads to postponing retirement among women, likely due to greater gender equality in unpaid work. In contrast, the retirement age for men is less affected by the pandemic with no significant differences between digital and non-digital occupations. This may exacerbate the existing gender gap in labor force participation and pension outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Remote working, Early retirement, Working conditions, COVID-19, Digitalization |
| JEL: | J14 J24 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1553 |
| By: | Altavilla, Carlo; Rostagno, Massimo; Schumacher, Julian |
| Abstract: | Banks are reluctant to tap central bank backup liquidity facilities and use the borrowed funds for loans to the real economy. We show that excessively parsimonious borrowing and lending can arise in a stigma-free model where the banking sector has an incentive to overissue deposits. Banks don’t heed the central bank’s call for more credit to finance investment because they simply ignore the collective gains from stronger activity in their atomistic decisions. Central banks can address this market failure by disintermediating market-based finance. A lender-of-last-resort (LOLR) system in which the central bank offers liquidity liberally but on non-concessionary conditions improves over a pure laissez-faire arrangement, where asset liquidation in the marketplace is the only source of emergency liquidity. But under LOLR banks remain reluctant to intermediate. Credit easing (CE) and quantitative easing (QE), instead, can stimulate bank borrowing and repair the broken nexus between liquidity provision and credit. Empirical analysis using bank-level and loan-by-loan data supports our model predictions. We find no empirical connection between loans and borrowed reserves obtained from conventional refinancing facilities. In contrast, there is a robust connection between loans and structural sources of liquidity: reserves borrowed under a CE program or non-borrowed, i.e. acquired from a QE injection. We also find that firms with greater exposure to banks borrowing in a CE program or holding larger volumes of non-borrowed reserves increase employment, sales, and investment. JEL Classification: E5, E43, G2 |
| Keywords: | credit easing, lending of last resort, loans, quantitative easing, reserves |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253009 |
| By: | Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens |
| Abstract: | Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland ist seit dem Jahr 2019 kaum gestiegen, während viele andere Länder der EU deutlich expandierten. Da aktuell die Finanzierungsdefizite in vielen Ländern der Europäischen Union und insbesondere im Euroraum deutlich größer sind als die in Deutschland, stellt sich die Frage, welchen Anteil die Finanzpolitik an der Divergenz hat. Als Referenzpunkt wird hier das Jahr 2019 gewählt, da damals die Ergebnisse der öffentlichen Haushalte nicht durch die Schocks der Corona-Pandemie und der Energiekrise beeinträchtigt waren. Für das Jahr 2024 wiederum dürften spezifische Maßnahmen in Reaktion auf diese beiden Krisen keinen bedeutenden direkten Einfluss mehr auf das Budget der Mitgliedsländer nehmen. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:308146 |
| By: | Silke Anger (Institute for Employment Research); Jacopo Bassetto (University of Milan); Malte Sandner (Nuremberg Institute for Technology) |
| Abstract: | While Western countries worry about labor shortages, their institutional barriers to skill transferability prevent immigrants from fully utilizing foreign qualifications. Combining administrative and survey data in a difference-in-differences design, we show that a German reform, which lifted these barriers for non-EU immigrants, led to a 15 percent increase in the share of immigrants with a recognized foreign qualification. Consequently, non-EU immigrants’ employment and wages in licensed occupations (e.g., doctors) increased respectively by 18.6 and 4 percent, narrowing the gaps with EU immigrants. Despite the inflow of non-EU immigrants in these occupations, we find no evidence of crowding out or downward wage pressure for natives. |
| Keywords: | Skill Transferability, Occupational Recognition, Immigrant Integration |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 F2 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2427 |
| By: | Christophe Blot (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Céline Antonin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Amel Falah (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Sabine Le Bayon (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Catherine Mathieu (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Christine Rifflart (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Benoît Williatte (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Après une année 2023 marquée par la faible croissance des pays européens, on observe un timide rebond de l'activité au premier semestre 2024. Pour autant, l'écart continue de se creuser vis-à-vis des États-Unis. Malgré les mesures budgétaires de soutien aux ménages ou aux entreprises prises par la plupart des pays à partir de la fin de l'année 2021, la demande intérieure est restée atone en Europe alors qu'elle a été plus dynamique aux États-Unis, où les prix de l'énergie n'ont pourtant pas augmenté autant. Les effets du resserrement monétaire outre-Atlantique ont par ailleurs été compensés par une politique budgétaire expansionniste. Au sein de la zone euro, la situation des pays reste hétérogène. Alors que l'Allemagne peine à retrouver le chemin de la croissance, l'Espagne maintient une trajectoire de croissance dynamique et le rythme de croissance Italie est plus élevé que ce qui était observé avant la pandémie. Dans les pays émergents, les signes d'un ralentissement chinois se sont multipliés pendant l'été si bien que même si le niveau de PIB dépasse largement celui de 2019, le rythme de croissance de l'économie chinoise est nettement inférieur à celui observé sur la période pré-Covid. La stabilisation du prix du pétrole autour de 80 dollars le baril en 2025 et l'anticipation d'une légère baisse du prix du gaz européen permettront la poursuite de la désinflation et la convergence de l'inflation vers la cible de 2 %. Dans ces conditions, la baisse des taux amorcée récemment par les banques centrales – à l'exception de la Banque du Japon – se poursuivrait. La politique monétaire pèserait encore sur la croissance en 2024 mais aurait un effet positif en 2025. Celui-ci serait cependant atténué par l'orientation plus restrictive des politiques budgétaires, en particulier dans les pays européens ce qui se traduira par une croissance modérée. Après une croissance mondiale de 3, 3 % en 2023, l'activité ralentirait à 3 % en 2024 et en 2025 en raison de la croissance plus faible aux États-Unis et en Chine. |
| Keywords: | économie mondiale, économie européenne, perspectives, croissance |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04807285 |
| By: | Rehse, Dominik; Valet, Sebastian; Walter, Johannes |
| Abstract: | We propose an EU Safe Generative AI Innovation Program to address a market failure in generative AI development. While developers can capture significant value from generative AI capability improvements, they bear only a fraction of potential safety failure costs, which leads to underinvestment in the technological breakthroughs necessary to make generative AI safe. The EU should establish explicit incentives for the necessary technological breakthroughs, complementing its existing policy responses to the rapid proliferation of generative AI. We propose a milestone-based incentive scheme where pre-specified payments would reward the achievement of verifiable safety milestones. This "pull" funding mechanism would aim to create predictable development paths for safety improvements, similar to how scaling laws have guided capability advances. The scheme would use robust safety metrics and competitive evaluation to prevent gaming while ensuring meaningful progress. Success would be measured through a combination of specific safety dimensions (like factual accuracy and harm prevention) and broader performance metrics, validated through adversarial testing and public comparative evaluation. The program's design would be technology-neutral and it could be open to all qualified institutions, with rewards calibrated through incentive-compatible elicitation mechanisms. This approach mirrors other applications of outcome-based funding, such as advance market commitments in vaccine development. It might also provide the breeding ground for "Safe AI made in the EU". |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:308835 |
| By: | Becker, Marco; Reinking, Ernst |
| Abstract: | Der EU-AI-Act markiert einen wichtigen ersten Schritt in der Regulierung von Künstlicher Intelligenz. Erstmals wird darin ein risikobasiertes Klassifikationssystem für KI-Anwendungen eingeführt, wobei unterschiedliche Folgewirkungen je nach Risikoklasse definiert werden. Die Einstufung von KI-Systemen in die entsprechende Risikoklasse ist somit von entscheidender Bedeutung. Im Folgenden wird ein neuartiges Schema zur systematischen Einstufung von Risikoklassen im Rahmen des EU-AI-Acts vorgestellt. Dieses strukturierte Vorgehensmodell zielt darauf ab, die Transparenz und Konsistenz bei der Risikobewertung von KI-Systemen zu verbessern. Es kann da-bei als praktische Grundlage für die Einhaltung des EU-AI-Acts dienen und fördert somit einen ver-antwortungsbewussten Umgang mit Künstlicher Intelligenz. |
| Abstract: | The EU AI Act is an important first step in the regulation of artificial intelligence. For the first time, it introduces a risk-based classification system for AI applications, with different consequences de-pending on the risk class. The classification of AI systems into the appropriate risk class is therefore of crucial importance. In the following, a novel scheme for the systematic classification of risk classes within the frame-work of the EU AI Act is presented. This structured procedural model aims to improve transparency and consistency in the risk assessment of AI systems. It can serve as a practical basis for compliance with the EU AI Act and thus promote the responsible use of artificial intelligence. |
| Keywords: | KI, Künstliche Intelligenz, AI, AI Act, EU AI Act, EU-AI-Act |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:308107 |
| By: | Rudloff, Bettina |
| Abstract: | Die EU-Handelspolitik bewegt sich im Spannungsfeld der strategischen Ziele Wohlstand, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Entwicklungsförderung, Nachhaltigkeit und Bildung politischer Allianzen. Vor dem Hintergrund ihrer sinkenden Handelsbedeutung für viele Partner und steigender geopolitischer Spannungen will die EU neue Handelsabkommen vereinbaren. Ihre einseitig eingeführten unilateralen Nachhaltigkeitsmaßnahmen entlang internationaler Lieferketten, etwa in Form von Sorgfaltspflichten oder Regeln zur Entwaldungsfreiheit, rufen aber Widerstand bei Handelspartnern hervor - und gefährden dadurch neue Abkommen. Mit ihrer geplanten Reform der Nachhaltigkeitskapitel in Handelsabkommen verfolgt die EU das Ziel, individualisierte Fahrpläne für die Umsetzung solcher Nachhaltigkeitsziele zu verabreden, die Bestandteil von Abkommen sind. Die Fahrpläne sollen Interessen und Sensibilitäten der Partner stärker berücksichtigen. Darüber hinaus will die EU Partnerschaftskonzepte, die bislang getrennt in unilateralen Ansätzen bzw. in bilateralen Handelsabkommen genutzt werden, besser verzahnen. Individuelle Nachhaltigkeitsansätze sollten auf strategischen Partnerschaftsprofilen beruhen, die die Bedeutung der EU und des jeweiligen Handelspartners füreinander erfassen sowie den Sensibilitäten beider Seiten Rechnung tragen. Auf dieser Grundlage können Optionen für konkrete Partnerschaftsvereinbarungen ausgelotet werden, wie es die neuerliche politische Einigung auf das EU-Mercosur-Abkommen in ersten Schritten zeigt. Für eine zukünftig strategischere Außenwirtschaftspolitik sollte die EU reflektieren, was sie als Partner attraktiv macht und wie sie Stärken der Partnerseite etwa bei Problem- und Umsetzungswissen besser respektieren und nutzen kann. Vor allem aber ist künftig mehr Kompromissbereitschaft erforderlich. |
| Keywords: | Handelsabkommen, Nachhaltigkeitsmaßnahmen, unilaterale Nachhaltigkeitsansätze, Lieferketten, EUDR, Entwaldungsverordnung, EUCSDDD, Lieferkettengesetz, Sorgfaltspflichten, EU, Mercosur, Mercosur-Abkommen, TSD-Kapitel, Handelspartnerschaften, Partnerschaftsprofile, Brüssel-Effekt, WTO |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:308814 |
| By: | Thilo N. H. Albers; Charlotte Bartels; Moritz Schularick |
| Abstract: | German history over the past 125 years has been turbulent. Marked by two world wars, revolutions and major regime changes, as well as a hyperinflation and three currency reforms, expropriations and territorial divisions, it comprises extreme shocks to study the role of historical events, taxation, asset price changes, portfolio heterogeneity in affecting the wealth distribution in the long run. Combining tax and archival data, household surveys, historical national accounts, and rich lists, we document that the top 1%wealth share has fallen by half, from close to 50% in 1895 to 26% today. Nearly all of this decline was the result of changes that occurred between 1914 and 1952. Using a novel decomposition framework, we show that collapsing equity prices after World War I and in the Great Depression as well as taxation in the aftermath of World War II stand out as great equalizers in 20th century German history. After unification in 1990, two trends have left their mark on the German wealth distribution. Households at the top made substantial capital gains from rising business wealth while the middle-class had large capital gains in the housing market. The wealth share of the bottom 50% has halved since 1990. Our findings speak to the importance of historical shocks to the valuation of existing wealth and taxation in driving the evolution of the wealth distribution over the long run. In addition, our data revisions reveal that Germany’s current wealth-income ratio is about 120 percentage points higher than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | Wealth inequality, portfolio heterogeneity, saving, wealth taxation |
| JEL: | D31 E01 E21 H2 N3 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2105 |
| By: | Arancha Gonzales Laya; Camille Grand; Nathalie Tocci; KAtarzyna Pisarska; Guntram Wolff |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/387033 |