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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2024–12–02
twenty-one papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Neepa Gaekad (Department of Economics, State University of New York, Fredonia, NY 14063, USA); William A. Barnett (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA and Center for Financial Stability, New York City) |
| Abstract: | Keywords: In light of the "two-pillar strategy" of the European Central Bank, good measures of aggregated money across countries in the Euro area are policy relevant. The objective of this paper is to focus on the multilateral Divisia monetary aggregates for the Euro area. Based on theory developed in Barnett (2007), this paper produced the multilateral Divisia monetary aggregates for the economic union of all the 19 Euro area countries, EMU-19, (and the Divisia monetary aggregates for the individual 19 Euro area countries), which is a theoretically consistent measure of monetary services for the Euro area monetary union. The multilateral Divisia monetary aggregate indices for EMU-19 is found to provide a better signal of recession, when compared to the corresponding simple sum monetary aggregates. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202416 |
| By: | Nauro F. Campos; Corrado Macchiarelli; Fotios Mitropoulos |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new estimates of Okun’s unemployment-output relationship in euro area countries between 1979 and 2019. We find our structural estimates are stable but substantially lower than the reduced-form estimates that tend to characterise the literature and that the responsiveness of output to unemployment is driven by idiosyncratic factors in both euro core and periphery countries. The results are robust to conditioning on wage bargaining institutional set-ups and, yet, in the euro periphery, we find product market regulation as playing a major role in explaining the significance of Okun’s law estimates across countries. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, unemployment, Okun’s Law, panel VAR |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J64 G01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11314 |
| By: | Alicia Aguilar (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a novel and high-frequency index of sovereign fragmentation in the euro area. The proposed methodology offers a decomposition of sovereign yields into the common trend, market conditions, and fundamentals-based divergence, which are uncorrelated to fragmentation. Therefore, the fragmentation index constitutes a bottom-line indicator for euro area Central Banks, as measuring disorderly market dynamics in sovereign markets not warranted by fundamentals. In that sense, this paper provides relevant conclusions about the effectiveness of monetary policy interventions, pointing to a significant effect of market stabilization announcements, such as TPI, in reducing sovereign fragmentation. I contribute to the literature as estimating the uncorrelated drivers of euro area yields divergence using a Restricted Principal Components Analysis. The estimated factors are later used to assess the effect of fragmentation, market and fundamentals on country's yields through several economic regimes, pointing to differences across countries and time. |
| JEL: | C38 E52 E58 H63 G01 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1113 |
| By: | Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał; Kolasa, Marcin; Makarski, Krzysztof; Jabłońska, Julia |
| Abstract: | During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply increased spending while the European Central Bank eased financing conditions. We use this episode to assess how such a concerted monetary-fiscal stimulus redistributes welfare between various age cohorts. Our assessment involves not only the income side of household balance sheets (mainly direct effects of transfers) but also the more obscure financing side that, to a substantial degree, occurred via indirect effects (with a prominent role of the inflation tax). Using a quantitative life-cycle model, and assuming that the deficit was partly unfunded by future taxes, we document that young households benefited from the stimulus, while middle-aged and older agents mainly paid the bill. Crucially, most welfare redistribution was due to indirect effects related to macroeconomic adjustment that resulted from the stimulus. As a consequence, even though all age cohorts received significant transfers, the welfare of some actually decreased. JEL Classification: E31, E51, E52, H5, J11 |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, fiscal expansion, monetary policy, redistribution |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242998 |
| By: | Heinisch, Katja |
| Abstract: | The European Commission's growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-period ahead quarterly GDP growth forecasts for the European Union (EU), euro area, and several EU member states with respect to first-release and current-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically biased. However, GDP forecasts for several member states tend to be overestimated at short-time horizons. Furthermore, the final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not significantly impact the overall assessment of the forecasts' quality. Additionally, the forecast performance varies across countries, with smaller countries and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) experiencing larger forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that there is still potential for improvement in forecasting techniques both for nowcasts but also forecasts up to eight quarters ahead. In the latter case, the performance of the mean forecast tends to be superior for many countries. |
| Keywords: | consensus forecasts, data revision, forecast evaluation, forecast horizon, forecasting, nowcasting, professional forecasters |
| JEL: | C32 C52 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:304456 |
| By: | Sandra Eickmeier; Luba Petersen |
| Abstract: | As central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), adopt climate-related responsibilities, gauging public support becomes essential. Drawing on a June 2023 Bundesbank household survey, we find that 69% of households report increased trust in the ECB due to its climate actions, valuing the institution's broader scope and concern. While 17% and 20% of households express concerns over risks to price stability or independence, 23% believe climate engagement reinforces the ECB's core objectives. An information intervention indicates minimal impact on household inflation expectations, suggesting a disconnect between institutional trust and inflation outlooks. An internal survey reveals that central bankers accurately gauge trust impacts but tend to overestimate effects on inflation expectations. Overall, our findings indicate broad public support for the ECB’s climate initiatives. |
| JEL: | C93 D84 E59 E7 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33103 |
| By: | Locatelli, Camilla |
| Abstract: | The sovereign debt crisis triggered a process of reforms in European economic governance that pushed for technocratic handling of budget decisions following standardized procedures, target measures, and indicators for fiscal monitoring. This shift, aimed at producing more stability and less conflict in budget decision-making, transformed fiscal policy, producing a new type of technocratic fiscal politics. These new technocratic instruments impact on national policymaking, yet little is known about the processes and actors behind their constitution. Scholarship on the policy response to the euro area crisis has highlighted the role of national interests but neglected the role of expertise in negotiating highly technical fiscal policies. A key measure in this new technical apparatus, the output gap, has been at the center of a heated contestation between Italian and European institutions over the 2014-2019 period. Taking the case of the Italian output gap, this paper traces the unfolding of the dispute around the methodology for estimating potential output and clearly reveals the new centrality of expertise. The paper argues that rather than producing a less conflictual policy environment and a depoliticizing of fiscal decisions, technocratic fiscal politics has reshaped discussions around budgetary politics. This reshaping extends and transforms actor constel- lations and venues of fiscal decisions, giving a larger role to technocratic experts. |
| Abstract: | Die Staatsschuldenkrise hat einen Reformprozess in der wirtschaftspolitischen Steuerung Europas in Gang gesetzt, der auf eine technokratische Handhabung von Budgetentscheidungen nach standardisierten Abläufen, Zielvorgaben und Indikatoren für die Finanzkontrolle abzielt. Die Reformen sollten zu mehr Stabilität und weniger Konflikten in Budgetentscheidungsprozessen führen, stattdessen aber entstand eine neue Art technokratischer Fiskalpolitik. Dieses neue technokratische Instrumentarium hat Auswirkungen auf die nationale Politikgestaltung, wobei wenig über die Prozesse und Akteure bekannt ist, die bei seiner Entstehung eine Rolle gespielt haben. Die Fachliteratur zur politischen Reaktion auf die Eurokrise betont die Rolle nationaler Interessen, vernachlässigt aber die Bedeutung von Expertenwissen bei der Aushandlung hochtechnischer fiskalpolitischer Maßnahmen. Ein zentrales Werkzeug dieses Instrumentariums, die Produktionslücke, war zwischen 2014 und 2019 Gegenstand hitziger Debatten zwischen italienischen und europäischen Institutionen. Am Beispiel der italienischen Produktionslücke zeichnet das Papier die Entwicklung des Streits um die Methoden der Potenzialschätzung nach und hebt die neue zentrale Bedeutung von Expertise hervor. Es wird argumentiert, dass die Technokratisierung der Fiskalpolitik nicht etwa zu einem weniger konfliktreichen Politikumfeld und einer Entpolitisierung von Steuerentscheidungen geführt hat, sondern vielmehr zu einer Neugestaltung haushaltspolitischer Debatten. Diese Neugestaltung verändert und erweitert in der Folge Akteurskonstellationen und Schauplätze fiskalpolitischer Entscheidungen und verleiht technokratischer Expertise eine größere Bedeutung. |
| Keywords: | European Union, fiscal policy, Italy, output gap, technocracy, Europäische Union, Fiskalpolitik, Italien, Produktionslücke, Technokratie |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:305293 |
| By: | Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Pesso, Tom |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interplay between discretionary fiscal policy and inflation in the euro area, emphasizing the role of public debt levels in modulating this relationship. It explores how fiscal expansions or contractions influence inflationary pressures, particularly under varying debt conditions. The analysis reveals that fiscal policy’s effect on inflation is non-linear, with debt levels significantly affecting the inflationary outcome of fiscal measures. High debt levels tend to amplify the inflation response to fiscal expansions, a finding that holds under multiple analytical frameworks and robustness checks. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy, especially in high-debt environments, and its implications for inflation dynamics in the euro area. JEL Classification: E31, E62, H63 |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, inflation, local projections, public debt |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242996 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Lucas Menescal; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | After computing the Gini and Herfindahl-Hirschman indexes for exports and imports partner concentration for a set of 31 European countries between 1995 and 2023, we analyse the role of macroeconomic, institutional and uncertainty effects on the partner concentration (diversification) of exports and imports. From our analysis, we disentangle different effects, namely that while global GDP leads to an increase in concentration in both exports and imports, internal rates of return increase exports diversification, reducing it for imports. Additionally, European uncertainty reduces the concentration of the product countries’ origin/destination for imports and exports, respectively. Our results provide a comprehensive set of results that enable public authorities and firms to minimize their risks when trading with the exterior. |
| Keywords: | Exports; Imports; Gini index; Herfindahl-Hirschman index; Determinants of concentration. |
| JEL: | C33 E02 F14 F32 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03562024 |
| By: | Giovanni Carnazza; Emilio Carnevali; Matteo Sommacal |
| Abstract: | The European Union's fiscal policy framework imposes constraints on individual countries' fiscal policies to ensure long-term financial sustainability. However, it is also designed to provide flexibility through the operation of "off-balance" automatic stabilisers. In practice, these rules have led to pro-cyclical measures in EU peripheral countries due to the way European institutions estimate the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU). The paper demonstrates the pro-cyclical nature of the current mechanism by combining empirical evidence covering the period 2002-2023 with a semi-analytical model of the potential output and NAWRU dynamics to estimate the change in the Cyclical Component due to the endogenisation of the variables relevant to the business cycle. Since the recent reform of the Stability and Growth Pact has maintained the core of this mechanism, the challenges identified for the period 2002-2023 are likely to persist in the upcoming years as well. |
| Keywords: | National Budget, Aggregate Production Function, Fiscal Policy |
| JEL: | H61 E23 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/316 |
| By: | Cinthia de Souza |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the financial mechanisms that reflect and entrench the financial subordination of the Eurozone periphery within the monetary union. It argues that the exacerbation of financial asymmetries during the debt crisis and their relative softening during the pandemic are closely linked to the evolving Eurozone approach to government securities. It proposes a new framework centred on what is here termed the "Eurozone's contradiction", a concept that encapsulates the potential tension between the uneven discipline of finance and the monetary union`s perpetuation. When this tension becomes unsustainable, institutional changes and shifts in economic policy are required to preserve the common currency area. These developments, in turn, influence regional government debt hierarchies and shape the variegated financial subordination of the Eurozone periphery |
| Keywords: | Financial Subordination, Periphery, Eurozone, Public Debt. |
| JEL: | F33 E44 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:916 |
| By: | Bakr Al-Gamrh (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Umar Farooq; Tanveer Ahsan (RTO - Rethinking Tomorrow’s Organisation - Rennes School of Business - ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationships between economic uncertainty (EU), corporate governance (CG), and the cost of debt (COD). Using an index-based measure of CG, this study investigates how CG influences debtholders' perspectives during periods of EU. The study utilizes a dataset of nonfinancial firms listed in European countries from 2013 to 2021. We find that EU and COD are positively associated, indicating that EU increases the COD of European firms. Second, while CG has an insignificant direct impact on COD, it has a significant negative moderating impact on the relationship between EU and COD, suggesting that although a strong CG system may not have a significant direct impact on COD, it has the potential to reduce the uncertainty-induced COD of European firms. The results remain consistent with alternative proxies of COD and CG, as well as before and after the COVID-19 period. The results for CG subindices suggest that shareholder rights and compensation serve as reliable indicators for debtholders during periods of EU, while audit quality and board structure do not play any significant role in reducing uncertainty-induced COD. Our findings emphasize the key role that effective CG plays in mitigating EU's adverse effects on COD. Our results are robust to endogeneity issues such as reverse causality and selection bias, as well as to external factors like time and industry effects. |
| Keywords: | Economy, Europe, Debt, Corporate Governance, Economic uncertainty Corporate governance Cost of debt Europe |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04727168 |
| By: | Victor Le Coz; Nolwenn Allaire; Michael Benzaquen; Damien Challet |
| Abstract: | Using the secured transactions recorded within the Money Markets Statistical Reporting database of the European Central Bank, we test several stylized facts regarding interbank market of the 47 largest banks in the eurozone. We observe that the surge in the volume of traded evergreen repurchase agreements followed the introduction of the LCR regulation and we measure a rate of collateral re-use consistent with the literature. Regarding the topology of the interbank network, we confirm the high level of network stability but observe a higher density and a higher in- and out-degree symmetry than what is reported for unsecured markets. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.16021 |
| By: | Daube, Carl Heinz |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the potential impact of a takeover of Commerzbank by the Italian bank UniCredit on the European banking landscape and the development of the Capital Markets Union. It discusses the potential for increased profitability, structural efficiency and stability of the European banking sector as well as the challenges associated with the consolidation of banks. Finally, it examines how this takeover could contribute to achieving the objectives of the Capital Markets Union by improving the framework conditions for financing, particularly for SMEs. |
| Abstract: | Dieser Artikel analysiert die möglichen Auswirkungen einer Übernahme der Commerzbank durch die italienische Bank UniCredit auf die europäische Bankenlandschaft und die Entwicklung der Kapitalmarktunion. Er erörtert das Potenzial für eine höhere Rentabilität, strukturelle Effizienz und Stabilität des europäischen Bankensektors sowie die mit der Konsolidierung von Banken verbundenen Herausforderungen. Schließlich wird untersucht, wie diese Übernahme zur Erreichung der Ziele der Kapitalmarktunion beitragen könnte, indem sie die Rahmenbedingungen für die Finanzierung, insbesondere von KMU, verbessert. |
| Keywords: | UniCredit, Commerzbank, EU Capital Market Union, Next CMU |
| JEL: | G01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:305808 |
| By: | Lukas Buchheim; Sebastian Link; Sascha Möhrle |
| Abstract: | We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation—is small: 0.11–0.17 for firms and 0.03–0.07 for employees. Utilizing variation in the coverage length of collective agreements, we estimate that pass-through at the intensive margin is 1.4-2 times larger than average pass-through, highlighting the importance of wage rigidities for pass-through. Pass-through also rises with the bargaining power of employees. At the extensive margin, expected inflation has little effect on additional wage negotiations. |
| Keywords: | wage expectations, inflation, pass-through, wage-price spirals, bargaining, firms, employees, survey data |
| JEL: | E24 E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11329 |
| By: | Campana, Juan Manuel; Hein, Eckhard |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the German demand and growth regimes from 1999 to 2024 within the framework of Eurozone macroeconomic governance for three sub-periods: 1999-2009, 2010-2020, and 2021-2024. Applying a national income and financial accounting decomposition approach, we find an extreme export-led mercantilist (ELM) regime during the first period, a moderated ELM regime in the second period, and a weakly export-led (WEL) regime in the third period. Also, the application of the Sraffian supermultiplier growth accounting approach indicates that exports were the primary autonomous growth driver, though with a declining trend over time. The examination of the structural underpinnings of Germany's export-led regime reveals that exports are mainly in capital goods and medium to high-technology products with a high income elasticity of demand, and thus rely on growth dynamics in the respective destination countries. The analysis of the German macroeconomic policy regime shaped by the Eurozone governance system finds for the first period a restrictive macroeconomic policy stance that suppressed domestic demand, making exports the primary growth driver. The second period saw a more expansionary stance, leading to a less extreme ELM regime. This trend continued into the third period, leading to a WEL regime with balanced domestic and external growth drivers. The paper concludes by advocating for a coordinated Eurozone macroeconomic policy mix that generates sufficient domestic demand and imports to balance the structurally shaped German export dynamics and to prevent regional and global current account imbalances. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone governance, Germany, growth decomposition, macroeconomic policy regime |
| JEL: | E11 E12 E61 O52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:305270 |
| By: | David Castells-Quintana (Department of Applied Economics, Univ Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain); Roberto Gasquez (Department of Economic History, Institutions, Politics and World Economy. Univ de Barcelona, 08034, Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The connection between sports and development has long been highlighted in academia and policy debates. But the extent to which the success of professional sport teams can spur economic dynamism has hardly been studied in the literature. In this paper, we look at the potential connection between sporting success and economic development. We focus on club football and economic dynamism in European regions. To do so, we build a unique dataset with information for 395 football clubs, matched with economic information for 295 NUTS3 European regions, for the 2000-2020 period. Using several econometric techniques, we find robust evidence of a positive connection between club success and regional economic performance. This connection seems especially strong when sporting success comes from relatively modest clubs. |
| Keywords: | sport; football; regions; Europe; development. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2402 |
| By: | Heinz Welsch (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Easterlin and O’Connor (PNAS 2022) have investigated which economic, social, political, and ecological factors explain long-run (36-year) changes in European countries’ happiness (life satisfaction). Considering six potential predictors advanced in the pertinent literature, they found only rising welfare state generosity to be significantly associated with rising happiness. Noticing a salient characteristic of the data used – a strong and significant association between happiness trends and initial happiness levels – I modify this analysis by controlling for initial happiness levels and by considering long-run relative changes in addition to absolute changes in happiness. Both modifications respond to the circumstance that happiness scales are bounded so that it is hard for happiness to increase – especially in absolute terms – if it is already high. I find the inclusion of initial happiness to greatly increase the explanatory power (R2) of the regression models considered and, as a consequence, to raise the precision of coefficient estimates. Due to increased precision, not only welfare state generosity but also growth in per-capita GDP is found to significantly predict both absolute and relative long-run changes in countries’ happiness, whereas other candidate explanatory variables remain insignificant. Welfare state generosity and GDP growth are not only statistically, but also economically significant. |
| Keywords: | happiness; life satisfaction; welfare policy; economic growth; Easterlin Paradox |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:447 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Najat Bazah |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between public sector efficiency and government spending, to assess public resource management across the 27 European Union countries. Specifically, we analyze the growth of public expenditure in relation to outcomes across various public sector performance (PSP) indicators. We compute government spending efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to subsequently assess the relationship between efficiency and the growth rate of public expenditure. Our findings suggest that higher efficiency can be achieved without proportionally increasing public spending, both in total expenditure and in specific areas such as social protection, economic affairs, education, healthcare, and public services. Indeed, with overall output efficiency scores between 0.77 and 0.87, with the same level of inputs, output could increase around 13%-23%. Additionally, public spending tends to rise during recessions, while it decreases with higher levels of human capital and redistribution indicators. Finally, more efficient countries tend to coalesce around Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Hungary, Poland, and Sweden. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Performance Indicators; Efficiency; Public expenditure; Functions of the Government; Data Envelopment Analysis |
| JEL: | C33 C61 E62 H11 H50 O47 P43 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03572024 |
| By: | Felbermayr, Gabriel; Hinz, Julian; Langhammer, Rolf J. |
| Abstract: | Following the upcoming U.S. elections, the EU should prioritize defending the multilateral trade system, as a collapse in global economic cooperation could impact Europe up to four times more than direct U.S. tariffs alone. Potential U.S. trade policies under either a Harris or second Trump administration are expected to remain protectionist, though Harris would likely adopt a more multilateral stance, while Trump could intensify tariffs and weaken the WTO's role. If the U.S. imposes broad tariffs-such as a 10% surcharge on imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods-global trade could shrink by 2.5% initially, with greater contractions if trade partners retaliate. While some EU sectors, like high-tech, may see short-term output gains due to relative competitiveness, EU GDP would still decline, with Germany facing GDP losses of up to €6 billion and significant impacts in key sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals. In the most severe scenario, a breakdown of the WTO or fragmentation into competing geopolitical blocs would lead to profound economic losses. EU GDP could fall by up to 0.5%, with Germany's output declining by 3.2%, while China would bear the greatest losses. Given the high stakes, the EU's priority must be to uphold the global trade system, as the costs of fragmentation far exceed those of a bilateral dispute with the U.S. |
| Abstract: | Nach den bevorstehenden US-Wahlen sollte die EU der Verteidigung des multilateralen Handelssystems Priorität einräumen, da ein Zusammenbruch der globalen wirtschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit Europa bis zu viermal stärker treffen könnte als direkte US-Zölle allein. Die potenziellen Handelspolitiken der USA unter einer möglichen Harris- oder zweiten Trump-Administration werden voraussichtlich protektionistisch bleiben, wobei Harris eher einen multilateralen Ansatz verfolgen dürfte, während Trump die Zölle verstärken und die Rolle der WTO weiter schwächen könnte. Sollte die USA umfassende Zölle erheben - etwa eine 10%-Abgabe auf alle Importe und einen 60%-Zoll auf chinesische Waren - könnte der globale Handel zunächst um 2, 5 % schrumpfen, mit größeren Einbrüchen bei Gegenmaßnahmen von Handelspartnern. Während einige EU-Sektoren wie der Hochtechnologiebereich kurzfristig aufgrund relativer Wettbewerbsvorteile profitieren könnten, würde das BIP der EU dennoch sinken. Deutschland würde einen Rückgang des BIP um bis zu 6 Milliarden Euro verzeichnen, mit erheblichen Einbußen in Schlüsselbranchen wie der Automobil- und der Pharmaindustrie. Im schwerwiegendsten Szenario würde ein Zusammenbruch der WTO oder die Aufteilung in konkurrierende geopolitische Blöcke zu erheblichen wirtschaftlichen Verlusten führen. Das BIP der EU könnte um bis zu 0, 5 % sinken, während die Wirtschaftsleistung Deutschlands um 3, 2 % zurückgehen würde; China würde die größten Verluste hinnehmen müssen. Angesichts dieser hohen Risiken sollte die EU ihre Bemühungen auf die Sicherung des globalen Handelssystems konzentrieren, da die Kosten einer Fragmentierung die Risiken eines bilateralen Konflikts mit den USA bei Weitem übersteigen. |
| Keywords: | Trade wars, WTO, tariffs, decoupling, fragmentation, Handelskriege, WTO, Zölle, Entkopplung, Fragmentierung |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:305305 |
| By: | Dong, Kangyin (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China); Yang, Senmiao (International Business Strategy Institute, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China); Wang, Jianda (Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China); Nepal, Rabindra (School of Business, Faculty of Business and Law, University of Wollongong, Australia); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies 41 countries from 1995 to 2021 and uses the European Green Deal (EGD) as an example to explore the impact of policy intervention on the relationship between geopolitical risk and climate vulnerability. The main findings show that: (1) Geopolitical risk can exacerbate climate vulnerability, primarily manifested in negative impacts on food, water, health, and ecosystems. (2) Green transition and green investment can mitigate the adverse impact of geopolitical risk on climate vulnerability. (3) The positive effect of the EGD on the green transition and green investment can further mitigate climate vulnerability caused by geopolitical conflicts. This study provides practical approaches and references for policymakers to reduce the impact of geopolitical conflicts and enhance climate resilience. |
| Keywords: | The European Green Deal; Geopolitical risk; Climate vulnerability; Green transition; Green investment |
| JEL: | C33 O19 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_015 |