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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒11‒04
twenty-six papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Víctor Caballero (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Corinna Ghirelli (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Ángel Luis Gómez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Javier J. Pérez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | The most recent fiscal adjustment episode in the euro area occurred during the so-called euro area sovereign debt crisis. It affected many countries and was quite significantly impacted by the public wage bill. The austerity measures contributed, in particular, to an immediate partial correction of positive public–private pay differentials, most notably in countries subject to the EU’s financial assistance programmes. An important aspect of the debate on public wage bill restraint concerns how long such policies can be sustained over time. In this paper, we investigate whether the downward corrections that were initially observed in many countries were permanent or ended up being transitory (i.e. whether they were reversed in subsequent years). To do so, we focus on euro area countries over the 2007-2021 period, so as to have sufficient observations in both the pre- and post- adjustment periods. We estimate the wage differential, controlling for observable differences between individuals using cross-sectional microdata from a harmonized survey (the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC)). We show that the lower wage premiums only partially reverted to pre-fiscal consolidation levels over the subsequent decade and that more sustained policy achievements are linked to larger fiscal adjustment efforts during the 2010–2014 crisis. |
| Keywords: | fiscal consolidation, government spending, public sector wage gap |
| JEL: | C21 J31 J45 E62 H2 H5 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2433 |
| By: | António Afonso; Daniel Loureiro |
| Abstract: | We compute a GVAR to estimate the fiscal spillovers on output, consumption, investment, employment, and income, from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4, with 16 Euro Area (EA) countries. We found that a budget balance expansionary shock in Germany would generate positive spillovers on output and employment. Negative cross-country effects on consumption were also found. No significant spillovers on investment or income were observed following this shock. Greater and more significant spillovers were found after an EA global shock. There are also positive effects on private investment. However, a global shock still does not generate significant effects on income and increases the magnitude of the negative short-run spillovers on consumption. Greece is one of the countries more affected by short-run negative spillovers. Finally, national and global fiscal shocks put upward pressure on prices and generate negative effects on public debt. From a policy perspective, we recommend the reinforcement of the fiscal coordination framework. |
| Keywords: | Euro Area, fiscal spillovers, policy coordination, GVAR. |
| JEL: | C32 E62 F42 F45 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03472024 |
| By: | Tatar, Balint; Wieland, Volker |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). It focuses on versions of the Taylor (1993) and Orphanides and Wieland (OW) (2013) rules. Rules that respond to recent outcomes of HICP Core or domestic inflation data called for raising interest rates in 2021 and well ahead of the rate increases implemented by the ECB. Thus, such simple outcome-based policy rules deserve more attention in the ECB's monetary policy strategy. Interestingly, the rules support the recent shift of the ECB to policy easing. Yet, they add a note of caution by suggesting that policy rates should not decline as fast as apparently anticipated by traded derivative-based interest rate forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, interest rates, European Central Bank, Taylor rule, OrphanidesWieland rule, New Keynesian macro-epidemic models |
| JEL: | E42 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:303512 |
| By: | Klodiana Istrefi (BANQUE DE FRANCE); Florens Odendahl (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Giulia Sestieri (BANQUE DE FRANCE) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the Euro Area Communication Event-Study Database (EA-CED), a new dataset that tracks financial market movements around ECB Governing Council meetings (GC) and inter-meeting communication (IMC). Covering the period from 1999 to 2024, the EA-CED contains intraday changes in euro area financial variables around the time of 304 ECB GC policy announcements and 4, 400 IMC events, consisting mainly of speeches and interviews. We document several new empirical findings on the impact of IMC on financial markets. First, we show that many IMC events are associated with significant market movements, often of similar or larger magnitude than those associated with ECB policy announcements, particularly for yields at longer maturities. Significant effects are not limited to communication from the ECB’s President but extend to other members of the Governing Council. Second, the importance of IMC varies over time, peaking around tightening cycles, particularly in 2022-2023. Third, like ECB GC announcements, IMC events convey multi-dimensional information and lead to surprises regarding the path of monetary policy and the state of the economy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, ECB, communication, financial markets, euro area |
| JEL: | E03 E50 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2431 |
| By: | Jocelyne Zoumenou; Antonia Lopez Villavicencio |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of fiscal rules on EU countries' fiscal stability, particularly within the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) framework. By rigorously addressing endogeneity concerns, we show that compliance with budget balance rules (BBR) contributes to fiscal stability. However, countries that comply with all the targets imposed by the SGP simultaneously or that established a constitutional BBR do not perform better than countries that comply exclusively with the budget balance rule. Finally, our results indicate that strong fiscal rules are not necessary to achieve better fiscal discipline. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal rules; Compliance; European Union; Instrumental Variables; Treatment Effect Models |
| JEL: | C21 C26 E62 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-29 |
| By: | Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses factors that contributed to different economic dynamics across European regions and the prevailing disparities. The impact of EU Cohesion Policy in reducing disparities is studied based on the empirical evidence on the effects of EU regional policy. With more than thirty years of experience, several important conclusions can be drawn about the effectiveness and efficiency of place-based transfers in Europe. While EU regional policy has not completely countered market-driven processes that lead to regional disparities, it appears to have modestly alleviated them. To enhance the effectiveness of EU Cohesion Policy, this chapter advocates for an improved policy design and a shift in emphasis towards local institutions and governments in recipient regions, emphasizing that merely increasing the volume of transfers cannot compensate for these improvements. |
| Keywords: | : EU Structural Policy, Place-based policies, regional inequality, economic geography |
| JEL: | R10 R50 H20 F20 D70 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper46 |
| By: | Adriana Kugler |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:98934 |
| By: | Nicola Gagliardi (CEBRIG and DULBEA, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles); Elena Grinza (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turin); François Rycx (CEBRIG and DULBEA, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles. IRES (UCLouvain)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of rising temperatures on firm productivity using longitudinal firm-level balance-sheet data from private sector firms in 14 European countries, combined with detailed weather data, including temperature. We begin by estimating firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) using control-function techniques. We then apply multiple-way fixed-effects regressions to assess how higher temperature anomalies affect firm productivity – measured via TFP, labor productivity, and capital productivity. Our findings reveal that global warming significantly and negatively impacts firms’ TFP, with the most adverse effects occurring at higher anomaly levels. Labor productivity declines markedly as temperatures rise, while capital productivity remains unaffected – indicating that TFP is primarily affected through the labor input channel. Our moderating analyses show that firms involved in outdoor activities, such as agriculture and construction, are more adversely impacted by increased warming. Manufacturing, capital-intensive, and blue-collar-intensive firms, compatible with assembly-line production settings, also experience significant productivity declines. Geographically, the negative impact is most pronounced in temperate and mediterranean climate areas, calling for widespread adaptation solutions to climate change across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Global warming, Firm productivity, Total factor productivity (TFP), Semiparametric methods to estimate production functions, Longitudinal firm-level data |
| JEL: | D24 J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2024010 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Lucas Menescal; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of World Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Trade flows for 31 European economies between 1995 and 2023. To do so, we resort to Panel estimation techniques, including OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Our findings reveal that European nations primarily respond to global uncertainty by concentrating their exports and imports among top trading partners particularly their top 5 highest trading partners. This result is more pronounced when uncertainty is driven by low-income countries. Moreover, there is a stronger relationship between imports and global uncertainty compared to exports. Our study underscores the importance of European economies strategically adapting their export and import approaches in response to these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk; World Uncertainty; Trade Flows; International Trade; European Economies |
| JEL: | C23 E44 F14 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03462024 |
| By: | Chatzistamoulou, Nikos; Koundouri, Phoebe |
| Abstract: | The European Green Deal prioritizes green growth through resource efficiency and eco-innovation to achieve the transition in a sustainable and inclusive growth orbit. To monitor progress in such endeavor the EU Resource Efficiency Scoreboard was launched. Focusing on the resource productivity, which is the main sustainability development indicator and policy evaluation tool for Europe and the eco-innovation performance of the EU-28 over a twenty-year period, from 2000 though 2019, we explore convergence patterns and club formation. Descriptive analysis via growth rates of the resource productivity and eco-innovation indicates productivity differentials among the countries giving rise to heterogeneity groups. Econometric results using convergence algorithms advocate in favor of convergence for both variables. However, convergence clubs surface highlighting that there is heterogeneity to consider when designing policies to promote sustainability transition to ensure that no one is left behind serving the priority of inclusive and sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Resource Productivity, Eco-Innovation, Sustainability, Convergence, Technological Heterogeneity, European Green Deal |
| JEL: | O1 O3 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122104 |
| By: | Paola Conconi; Florin Cucu; Federico Gallina; Mattia Nordotto |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) has long been accused of suffering from a "democratic deficit". The European Parliament (EP), the only EU institution directly elected by citizens, is seen as having limited powers. Moreover, its members (MEPs) are often portrayed as unresponsive to the interests of their constituents due to the second-order nature of European elections: instead of being shaped by EU policies, they are driven by domestic politics. In this paper, we provide evidence against these Eurosceptic arguments using data on a key policy choice made by MEPs: the approval of free trade agreements. First, we show that MEPs are responsive to the trade policy interests of their electorate, a result that is robust to controlling for a rich set of controls, fixed effects, and employing an instrumental variable strategy. Second, we carry out counterfactual exercises demonstrating that the EP's power to reject trade deals can help explain why only agreements with broad political support reach the floor. Finally, against the idea that European elections are driven solely by domestic politics, we find that the degree of congruence between MEPs' trade votes and their electorate's interests affects their re-election chances. |
| Keywords: | EU democratic deficit, European Parliament, roll-call votes, trade agreements |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2041 |
| By: | Pirla, Sergio; Ortega-Lapiedra, Raquel |
| Abstract: | Individuals not only seek a happy and meaningful life, but an interesting one. In this letter, we show that past estimates of the well-being gains from entrepreneurship have overlooked an important aspect of the relationship between self-employment and well-being: boredom. Using a sample of over 30, 000 individuals from 25 European countries, we show that self-employment is related to lower levels of boredom – a relationship that is not captured by traditional measures of hedonic or eudaimonic well-being. |
| Keywords: | Boredom, Entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | L26 M5 |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122278 |
| By: | Paola Conconi; Florin-Lucian Cucu; Federico Gallina; Mattia Nardotto |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) has long been accused of suffering from a “democratic deficit.” The European Parliament (EP), the only EU institution directly elected by citizens, is seen as having limited powers. Moreover, its members (MEPs) are often portrayed as unresponsive to the interests of their constituents due to the second-order nature of European elections: instead of being shaped by EU policies, they are driven by domestic politics. In this paper, we provide evidence against these Eurosceptic arguments using data on a key policy choice made by MEPs: the approval of free trade agreements. First, we show that MEPs are responsive to the trade policy interests of their electorate, a result that is robust to controlling for a rich set of controls, fixed effects, and employing an instrumental variable strategy. Second, we carry out counterfactual exercises demonstrating that the EP’s power to reject trade deals can help explain why only agreements with broad political support reach the floor. Finally, against the idea that European elections are driven solely by domestic politics, we find that the degree of congruence between MEPs’ trade votes and their electorate’s interests affects their re-election chances |
| Keywords: | EU Democratic Deficit, European Parliament, Roll-call Votes, Trade Agreements |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/378377 |
| By: | Haapanala Henri; |
| Abstract: | Public spending reforms, especially when they influence the welfare state, aim to support macroeconomic stability and maintain good living standards. It is also politically important that citizens trust the institutions responsible for fiscal reforms. I analyse how trust in national government and the EU was affected by expenditure-based austerity interventions during the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis. With a comparative case study approach covering the EU-28 member states, my findings from synthetic control models suggest that trust in the national government is considerably more sensitive to fiscal consolidation measures than trust in the EU. I also suggest that decisive reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio are an important precondition for public trust in austerity. Furthermore, I do not find any effects of austerity on GDP growth. These results suggest that upcoming fiscal consolidation strategies in the post-Covid age should give high priority to macroeconomic stability while ensuring a favourable medium-term trajectory of household living standards |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:2406 |
| By: | Niklas Rohde (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This study is the first to investigate the crossover effect of the UK’s exit from the European Union, com-monly referred to as Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we confirm the results of studies explor-ing Brexit and respond to critiques of the literature. By applying the synthetic control group method, this paper reveals the impact of Brexit on GDP per capita (up until the most recent data) has been negative. In a second step, we show that, while COVID-19 had a negative impact on all developed economies, the confluence of the two events resulted in considerably more adverse outcomes in the United Kingdom. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, COVID-19, Great Britain, growth |
| JEL: | E65 F13 F15 F55 |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:080 |
| By: | FOGLIA Francesco; MOLICA Francesco (European Commission - JRC); MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The regularity and legality of EU spending, i.e. the conformity of incurred expenditures with relevant legislation, is an important measure of efficiency. It is also a key pre-condition for the effectiveness of EU funds. The present paper aims to understand the main determinants of irregular spending in EU cohesion policy funding: this is a highly important, yet understudied topic, especially given that cohesion policy is the area of the EU budget with the highest levels of irregularities. Using time series data and a fractional regression analysis model, the study provides evidence that the specific governance and structure of cohesion policy programmes can explain the intensity of irregular spending. Overall, the analysis finds that the higher the complexity of programmes (e.g. in terms of number of priorities, multi-fund focus), the higher the risk of irregularities and difficulty to detect them by programme authorities. The paper also shows the relevant role of specific aspects of the implementation, such as the size and number of projects, in influencing the regularity of expenditures. The results suggest that more simplification, greater thematic concentration and funds’ rules harmonization could bring benefits in the future. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202403 |
| By: | Dimitris Georgarakos; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Olivier Coibion; Geoff Kenny |
| Abstract: | We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key findings. First, higher inflation uncertainty leads households to reduce their subsequent durable goods purchases for several months, while a higher expected level of inflation increases them. Second, an increase in uncertainty about inflation induces households to tilt their portfolios towards safe and away from riskier asset holdings. Third, higher inflation uncertainty encourages household job search, leading to higher subsequent employment among the unemployed and less under-employment among the employed. Finally, we document that the level of inflation expectations has a different effect from uncertainty in inflation expectations and thus it is crucial to take into account both to measure their separate effects on decisions. |
| JEL: | C83 D84 E31 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33014 |
| By: | Eduardo Hernandez-Rodriguez; ; ; ; |
| Abstract: | This paper studies technological diversification in European regions incorporating global value chain participation as interregional linkages. The empirical analysis is developed for 243 NUTS-2 European regions between 2000-2010. Results show that, while regional capabilities remain crucial, global value chain participation matters for technological diversification. Particularly, backward participation in global value chains increases the chances of regions to trigger technological diversification. Forward participation in global value chains only increases the likelihood of technological diversification when combined with regional capabilities. Finally, global value chain participation is found to be more relevant for transition regions rather than for less and more developed regions. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, technological diversification, backward-forward participation, relatedness, interregional linkages, European regions |
| JEL: | F14 F63 O33 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2429 |
| By: | Andrea Coveri (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo); Elena Paglialunga (Department of Economics, Roma Tre University, Italy); Antoenllo Zanfei (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | The geographic dispersion of production activities has led regions to increasingly specialize in specific value chain functions, giving rise to a finer spatial division of labour. In this work, we use georeferenced FDI data to investigate the geography of functions and the interdependencies between functional and sectoral specialization of European regions. We show that the most intangible-intensive functions at the upper ends of value chains are concentrated in few advanced regions, while lower-income ones are largely and persistently specialized in production operations. Moreover, we find that regions locked-into low value-adding functions are the least likely to upgrade towards more knowledge-intensive industries. By contrast, only the few regions which experienced functional upgrading trajectories have been able to diversify towards more innovative industries. Accordingly, regional policies should aim at favouring functional upgrading of laggard regions as a key vehicle for economic and spatial convergence in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Geography of functions; Inter-regional inequality; Foreign direct investment; Global value chains; European regions |
| JEL: | F21 F23 L23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:24_01 |
| By: | Yufei Shen (Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2775-405 Carcavelos, Portugal); Klaus M. Miller (HEC Paris, 78351 Jouy-en-Josas, France); Xitong Li (HEC Paris, 78351 Jouy-en-Josas, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the positive impact of disabling cookie tracking on news consumption. Using an individual-week level panel data from a European news website, we find that disabling cookie tracking increases the number of articles read by 54.3% and the number of news categories consumed by 39.7%. These effects remain robust across various models and persist for over four months. During our sample period, the site introduced personalized news recommendations, allowing us to isolate the impact of enhanced privacy control from content personalization. Our findings suggest that the effects of disabling tracking are even more pronounced when content personalization is absent, indicating that perceived privacy control drives users’ increased news consumption. Additionally, we show that users who disable tracking gain less from personalized recommendations. This study provides initial empirical evidence of the positive effects of disabling data tracking in the digital media ecosystem. |
| Keywords: | cookie tracking; news consumption; consumer privacy; online media |
| JEL: | D12 L86 M37 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2408 |
| By: | Koeniger, Winfried; Kress, Peter; Lehmann, Jonas |
| Abstract: | We analyze the novel transactional card expenditure data for Germany and Austria provided by Fable Data. We describe key features of the data in terms of the coverage of expenditure items, payment channels, and the distribution of expenditures across regions and time. We highlight strengths and limitations of the data by comparing them to more consolidated lower-frequency information from external data sources. We find very similar expenditure patterns in Germany and Austria. We illustrate the advantages of the granular, higher-frequency information across expenditure items and locations by analyzing how consumption expenditures evolved during the COVID-19 crisis and beyond. |
| Keywords: | Consumption expenditures, Transactional data, Austria, Germany |
| JEL: | C80 D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2024:02 |
| By: | Jonathan Muringani; Rune Dahl Fitjar; Andres Rodriguez-Pose; ; |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the complex relationship between political and social trust, government quality, and economic development across 208 regions in the European Union (EU). We use a pooled data generalized structural equation model (GSEM) to show that political trust serves as a fundamental driver of regional economic development in the EU. Political trust is, in turn, influenced by both social trust and government quality. Social trust and government quality have quadratic effects on political trust, showing diminishing returns, while the effect of political trust on economic development is linear. Political trust mediates the relationship between social trust and economic development entirely, while government quality retains a direct relationship with economic development. These findings underscore the fundamental role that political trust plays as a mechanism through which both formal and informal institutions shape regional development. |
| Keywords: | EU, Political trust, Quality of government, regional economic development, social trust |
| JEL: | O43 D73 R11 H11 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2436 |
| By: | Plataniotis, Angelos; Koundouri, Phoebe; Alamanos, Angelos; Stavridis, Charalambos; Landis, Conrad; Chiatto, Elisa; Halkos, Georgios; Perifanos, Konstantinos; Devves, Stathis |
| Abstract: | The European Green Deal (EGD) is the growth strategy for Europe, covering multiple domains, and aiming to an equitable, carbon neutral European Union by 2050. The UN Agenda 2030, with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set the bases for a global sustainability transition. However, the integration of the SDGs into the EGD is an overlooked issue in the literature, although it is particularly important, given Europe’s slow progress to achieve the sustainability targets. In this paper, 22 central policies and strategies published during 2020–21 to support the EGD's implementation are assessed on how they align with Agenda’s 2030 aspirations, using novel text-mining methodologies: one human-based and one machine-learning-based. The results outline an alignment of EGD policies to the main SDGs themes relevant to Food, Land, Oceans, Energy, but also a strong indication that the progress towards sustainability passes through "Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions" (SDG16) and international "Partnerships for the Goals" (SDG17). We further explain the underlying policy mechanisms of the established ‘necessary transformations’ to build a sustainable Europe, along with the relevance of valuing the natural capital and integrating it into future investment and financial decisions. |
| Keywords: | European Green Deal, SDGs, Sustainability, Policy alignment, Text-mining, Machine Learning |
| JEL: | F5 H5 |
| Date: | 2023–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122042 |
| By: | Costanza Giannantoni; Andres Rodriguez-Pose; ; ; |
| Abstract: | Declining fertility and the persistent underrepresentation of women in the labour market are key concerns of our time. The fact that they overlap is not fortuitous. Traditionally, women everywhere have faced a conflict in balancing their career ambitions with family responsibilities. Yet, the pressures arising from this conflict vary enormously from one place to another. Existing research has tended to overlook the geographical features of this dilemma, which could result in an inadequate understanding of the issue and lead to ineffective policy responses. This paper examines how variations in the quality of regional institutions affect women’s capacity to reconcile career and motherhood and, consequently, gender equality within Europe. Using panel data from 216 regions across 18 European countries, we uncover a positive effect of regional institutional quality on fertility rates, taking into account variations in female employment. Moreover, we show that European regions with better government quality provide a more reliable environment for managing the career/motherhood dilemma often faced by women. In contrast, women living in regions with weaker government institutions are more constrained in both their career and childbearing options. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Gender equality, Institutional quality; European regions |
| JEL: | J11 J13 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2435 |
| By: | Kattel, Rainer |
| Abstract: | The European Union, in the face of mounting geo-political and climate challenges, needs a more effective innovation policy. Currently, its broad experimentalist approach to innovation policies gives Member States and regions autonomy for policy design. However, this often needs more effective organisations and capabilities to take advantage of the policy space. Thus, European countries face quite a substantial rethinking of how innovation policy is designed and implemented through innovation agencies. This policy paper argues that on all levels of European governance, policymakers should pay closer attention to designing and developing organisational ecosystems for innovation, focusing on fostering new capabilities. The paper starts with the assumption that European innovation agencies today face two broad challenges. First, they are tasked with, or engaged in, transforming socio-technical systems (e.g., food, mobility); and second, socio-technical systems fall under over-lapping systems of governance (e.g., food system includes elements from energy, waste management, health, and other policy areas), typically governed by different bodies. The transformation challenge indicates that innovation agencies require a broad spectrum of new capabilities across multiple systems. The governance challenge indicates the need for inter-organisational or distributed capabilities (e.g., division of labour and coordination across multiple organisations). This report discusses how innovation agencies are responding to this dual challenge and what critical steps could be taken to increase their capabilities to tackle the challenges effectively. |
| Keywords: | innovation, governance, innovation agencies, agile stability |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:304309 |
| By: | Langot, François; Maillard, Jocelyn; Malmberg, Selma; Tripier, Fabien; Hairault, Jean-Olivier |
| Abstract: | Après de nombreuses années de déficit public, 2024 est marquée par une brutale dégradation des comptes publics se concluant par l’ouverture d’une procédure de déficit excessif par l’Union européenne. Le gouvernement doit démontrer sa capacité à maîtriser ses finances publiques. Maîtriser les finances publiques nécessite dans un premier temps de stabiliser le ratio dette sur PIB, pour ensuite parvenir à le réduire durablement. Au-delà de cette inversion de tendance, le risque que la dette publique connaisse, à l’avenir, de nouvelles hausses doit aussi être limité. En effet, l’économie française sera toujours heurtée par des aléas conjoncturels pouvant dégrader ses finances publiques. Quelle politique permettrait d’inverser la dynamique de la dette publique tout en limitant le risque de hausses futures de la dette en cas de conjoncture défavorable ? Cette note propose la mise en place de règles budgétaires engageant le gouvernement à réduire ses dépenses. Au-delà de l’évolution « moyenne » du ratio d’endettement public, nous évaluons également la probabilité que celui-ci dépasse un certain seuil, selon la règle de consolidation budgétaire mise en œuvre. Deux stratégies, permettant toutes deux d’économiser en moyenne 30 Milliards d’euros par an jusqu’en 2027, sont comparées : l’une réduit la consommation publique (dépenses des administrations), l’autre les transferts aux ménages. Ces politiques impactent les finances publiques et modifient de façon spécifique les réactions des ménages et des entreprises à la conjoncture. À l’horizon 2027, les baisses de transferts réduisent davantage le ratio dette sur PIB que les baisses de consommation publique (-4, 9 points contre -3, 5 points). Mais, si la consolidation budgétaire s’opère via une baisse de la consommation publique, il y aurait alors 25 % de chances que le ratio dette sur PIB dépasse 126, 6 % en 2027 contre 127, 6 % en l’absence de consolidation budgétaire. Alors que cette stratégie réduit bien en moyenne l’endettement, elle ne permet pas d’éviter le risque de voir la dette dépasser 125 % dans 25 % des cas. En effet, elle comprime à court terme la demande en cas de conjoncture défavorable, ce qui ralentit la croissance économique et donc augmente le risque d’accroissement de la dette (en 2026, il y aurait même 25 % de chances que le ratio dette sur PIB dépasse 127 % avec cette politique). En revanche, si la consolidation budgétaire passe par une baisse des transferts aux ménages, les risques de hausses futures de la dette publique seront plus faibles : il y aurait 25 % de chance que le ratio dette sur PIB dépasse 122, 2 % en 2027 contre 127, 6 % en l’absence de consolidation budgétaire, soit une réduction de 5, 4 points. En effet, en cas de conjoncture défavorable, la réduction des transferts réduit moins l’activité économique que la réduction de la consommation publique, car les ménages compensent ces plus faibles transferts reçus par une baisse de leur épargne et une hausse de leur offre de travail.. |
| Keywords: | Croissance, déficit public, dette publique, Inflation, soutenabilité de la dette, Taux d'intérêt, Traité européen |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notmac:2403 |