|
on European Economics |
|
Issue of 2024‒07‒29
27 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Michaelis, Henrike |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) model for the euro area to explore the changes in the interest rate pass-through to bank retail rates following conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks. The median estimate of the impulse responses shows a considerably higher pass-through during crisis periods, especially the financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. From mid-2013 to 2015-16, the monetary policy pass-through to the bank lending rate becomes slightly stronger. In the remainder of 2016, the pass-through weakens. From then until the end of 2019, it hovers at a lower level. However, the credible intervals reveal a large uncertainty concerning the pass-through over the entire sample. Therefore, a constant and complete pass-through is clearly within the realms of possibility. Since the standard deviation of monetary policy shocks grows substantially since the onset of unconventional measures in 2011, changes in bank retail rates seem to be driven mainly by such shocks in this period. |
| Keywords: | Euro area, interest rate pass-through, time-varying vector autoregressive model, sign restrictions |
| JEL: | C11 E40 E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:299243&r= |
| By: | Bidder, Rhys; Jackson, Timothy P.; Rottner, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of central bank digital currency (CBDC) on banks and the broader economy - drawing on novel survey evidence and using a structural macroeconomic model with endogenous bank runs. A substantial share of German respondents would include CBDCs in their portfolio in normal times - replacing, in part, commercial bank deposits. This is hypothetical evidence for 'slow' disintermediation of the banking system. During periods of banking distress, households' willingness to shift to CBDC is even larger, implying a risk of 'fast' disintermediation. Our structural model captures both phenomena and allows for policy prescriptions. We calibrate to the Euro area and then introduce CBDC, exploiting our survey to parameterize its demand. We find two contrasting effects of CBDC on financial stability. 'Slow' disintermediation shrinks a run-prone banking system with positive welfare effects. But the ability of CBDC to offer safety at scale makes bank-runs more likely. For reasonable calibrations, this second 'fast disintermediation' effect dominates and the introduction of CBDC decreases financial stability and welfare. However, complementing CBDC with a holding limit or pegging remuneration to policy rates can reverse these results such that CBDC is welfare improving. Such policies retain the gains of increased stability arising from 'slow' disintermediation while limiting the downsides of 'fast' disintermediation. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:299237&r= |
| By: | Angelou, Angelos |
| Abstract: | The article examines potential linkages between the management of the Eurozone crisis and the EU’s economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It does so by focusing on the Commission and its approach to conditionality-based lending. The analysis employs the concept of inter-crisis learning to argue that the lessons the Commission drew from the Eurozone crisis informed its conditionality-related proposals for the National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs). By using qualitative data, including eight elite interviews, the article suggests that the Commission derived lessons regarding the design, negotiation, implementation, and monitoring of conditionality programs. These lessons led to cognitive changes within the organisation and to behavioral changes that were reflected in its proposals regarding the conditionality attached to NRRPs. The article contributes to the literature examining the EU’s economic response to the pandemic by discussing the Commission’s drivers and preferences during that period. It also complements the literature on coordinative Europeanisation by offering insights on how the European Commission shapes its proposals on conditionality-based lending; a central element of its relationship with member states when it comes to crisis management. Finally, it discusses the implications of the article’s main thesis for the process of European integration. |
| Keywords: | crises; European Commission; Eurozone; learning; RRF |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123867&r= |
| By: | Güntner, Jochen; Reif, Magnus; Wolters, Maik H. |
| Abstract: | We propose a structural vector-autoregressive model for the German natural gas market to investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. We combine conventional and narrative sign restrictions to leverage information about supply cuts for identification and find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects are rather moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse flow supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared to what we observe in the data. |
| Keywords: | Energy crisis, German natural gas market, narrative sign restrictions, natural gas price, structural scenario analysis, vector-autoregression |
| JEL: | E32 F51 Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:299244&r= |
| By: | Jara Tamayo, Xavier; Simon, Agathe |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the potential of a common unemployment insurance scheme for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU-UI) to improve income protection of atypical workers, namely those in part-time and temporary contracts. Our approach relies on simulating entitlements to national unemployment insurance and the EMU-UI to assess their effects on the household disposable income of atypical workers in the event of unemployment. Our results show that the introduction of an EMU-UI would reduce coverage gaps and increase net replacement rates, especially for atypical workers, and would protect a large share of the workforce against the risk of poverty. Extending eligibility for the EMU-UI to the self-employed would further improve income protection, reducing their risk of falling into poverty in the event of unemployment. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance; European Monetary Union; microsimulation; income protection; atypical work; poverty |
| JEL: | I38 C81 H55 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121121&r= |
| By: | F. Aresu; E. Marrocu; R. Paci |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic impact of European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) for 262 EU NUTS2 regions over the period 2000-2019. Differently from previous contributions, we focus on the impact of ESIF on regional Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, which allowed us to account for other sources of regional investments. A relevant contribution of this study is the thorough examination of the effect of the four main funds included in ESIF on the productivity of a comprehensive set of EU regions. Results show the prevailing effectiveness of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), featuring a great deal of heterogeneity over time and across EU geographic areas. Moreover, by analyzing the role played by the European Agricultural Fund (EAFRD) on the TFP of the agricultural sector, we found that its growth impact crucially depends on the initial level of regional sectoral TFP. Our results contribute to a deeper understanding of ESIF economic impact and suggest policy implications for enhancing their contribution to regional economic development. |
| Keywords: | European Structural and Investment Funds;regional development;Spatial Error Model;European Union |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202412&r= |
| By: | Steiner, Nils D.; Berlinschi, Ruxanda; Farvaque, Etienne; Fidrmuc, Jan; Harms, Philipp; Mihailov, Alexander; Neugart, Michael; Stanek, Piotr |
| Abstract: | This article uses a survey amongst students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes towards European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on 24 February 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants' interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion towards shared European values. |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:146364&r= |
| By: | Dennis Novy; Thomas Sampson; Catherine Thomas |
| Abstract: | This briefing summarises the evidence about how leaving the European Union (EU) has affected UK trade. Overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expected. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, Election2024, Globalisation, UK Economy, trade, |
| Date: | 2024–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:058&r= |
| By: | Fueki, Takuji; Hürtgen, Patrick; Walker, Todd B. |
| Abstract: | Financial institutions, especially in Europe, hold a disproportionate amount of domestic sovereign debt. We examine the extent to which this home bias leads to capital misallocation in a real business cycle model with imperfect information and fiscal stress. We assume banks can hold sovereign debt according to a zero-risk weight policy and contrast this scenario to one in which banks weight the sovereign debt according to default probabilities. Banks are assumed to miscalculate the probability of a disaster state due to moral hazard and imperfect monitoring. This distortion pushes the economy away from the first-best allocation. We show that the zero risk weight policy exacerbates these distortions while a non-zero risk-weight improves allocations. The welfare costs associated with zero-risk weight policies are large. Households are willing to give up 3.2 percent of their consumption to move to the first-best allocation, whereas in the economy with non-zero risk-weights households are willing to give up only 1.2 percent of their consumption to move to the first-best allocation. |
| Keywords: | Zero-Risk Weight, Fiscal Limit, Macroprudential Regulation, Sovereign-Bank Nexus, Fiscal Stress |
| JEL: | E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:299238&r= |
| By: | von Ondarza, Nicolai |
| Abstract: | Weniger als einen Monat nach den Europa-Wahlen stimmen auch die Bürgerinnen und Bürger im Vereinigten Königreich (UK) über ein neues Parlament ab. Nach der wechselseitigen Entfremdung durch den Brexit bietet sich damit eine Chance, die Beziehungen zwischen der EU und London zu reintensivieren. Vor allem in der Außen-, Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik hat die Zusammenarbeit im Zuge des russischen Angriffskrieges ohnehin wieder zugenommen, bislang jedoch auf Ad-hoc-Basis. Mittelfristig geht es nicht um eine Rückabwicklung des Brexits, wohl aber um den Aufbau einer Gemeinsamen Strategischen EU-UK-Initiative - das heißt eines neuen Modells von strukturierten Beziehungen mit einem für die EU und Deutschland sehr wichtigen Partner. Dabei sollte auch die EU mehr Flexibilität zeigen als bisher.ichgewicht in der Diaspora aufrechtzuerhalten. |
| Keywords: | Vereinigtes Königreich, Europäische Union, Beziehungen zwischen EU und Großbritannien, Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, britische Unterhauswahl 2024, Gemeinsame Strategische EU-UK-Initiative, Premierminister Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Labour-Partei |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:299540&r= |
| By: | Fotios Kalantzis; Salma Khalid; Alexandra Solovyeva; Marcin Wolski |
| Abstract: | Using a novel cross-country dataset, which merges firm-level financials with information on firms’ participation in the European Unions’ Emissions Trading System (ETS), we investigate how firm performance is affected by tightening of environmental policies that put a price on pollution. We find that more stringent policies do not have a strong negative impact on the profitability of ETS-regulated or non-ETS firms. While firms report an increase in their input costs during periods of high carbon prices, their reported turnover is also higher. Among ETS-regulated firms which must purchase emission certificates under the EU ETS, tightening of climate policies in periods of high carbon prices results in increased investment, particularly in intangible assets. We establish robustness of our results using a quantile regression analysis, ensuring our key findings are not driven by distributional irregularities. Our findings provide support for the benefits of EU ETS on accelerating firms’ climate transition, while keeping firm-level financial costs at bay. |
| Keywords: | climate finance; climate change; decarbonization; firm-level analysis; Emissions Trading System (ETS) |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/135&r= |
| By: | Janssen, Thilo; Lübker, Malte |
| Abstract: | With real wages falling by 4.0 % in 2022, workers in the European Union suffered an unprecedented loss in purchasing power. The reason for this was the rapid increase in consumer prices, behind which nominal wage growth fell significantly. Meanwhile, inflation is no longer driven by energy import prices, but by domestic factors. The increased profit margins of companies are a major reason for persistent inflation. In this difficult environment, the trade unions are faced with the challenge of securing real wages - and companies have the responsibility of making their contribution to returning to the path of political stability by reducing excess profits. |
| Abstract: | Mit einem Rückgang der Reallöhne um 4, 0 % erlitten die Beschäftigten in der Europäischen Union im Jahr 2022 einen bisher einmaligen Verlust an Kaufkraft. Ursächlich war der rapide Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise, hinter den das Nominallohnwachstum deutlich zurückfiel. Inzwischen wird die Teuerung nicht mehr von den Importpreisen für Energie, sondern von inländischen Faktoren bestimmt. Die gestiegenen Gewinnmargen der Unternehmen sind dabei eine wesentliche Ursache der beharrlichen Inflation. In diesem schwierigen Umfeld ergibt sich für die Gewerkschaften die Herausforderung, die Reallöhne zu sichern - und für die Unternehmen die Verantwortung, durch den Abbau der Übergewinne ihren Beitrag zur Rückkehr auf den stabilitätspolitischen Pfad zu leisten. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, Wirtschaft |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsirep:299258&r= |
| By: | Bernhard Dachs |
| Abstract: | Abstract:The EU Chips Act is a new policy instrument that aims to increase Europe‘s autonomy in the area of microchips. The Chips Act includes funding for research and development, investments in new chip production capacities, and monitoring of the chip market to anticipate supply shortages. The total funding for the act is 43 billion EUR, with 11 billion EUR allocated for R&D and innovation. Most of the funds will come from member states and companies.The EU Chips Act has been criticized for its structure, its funding, and its strategic orientation. Observers argue that the funding may be insufficient for the act's ambitious goals, that it may focus on the wrong technologies, and that the goal of technological sovereignty in chips is unrealistic. Additionally, similar programs in other countries could lead to an oversupply of chips. However, given the current global tensions and the potential for disruptions to chip supply from Asia, there may be no alternative to public support for ramping up chips production in Europe. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2023:m:02:i:58&r= |
| By: | Hopkin, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Labour needs to look to Europe for lessons on welfare provision, and the political strategies that can sustain the welfare state. The government’s role in the economy has expanded as a result of several, overlapping crises: this provides an opportunity to demonstrate the economic value of social security and welfare provision. |
| JEL: | E6 J1 |
| Date: | 2023–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122786&r= |
| By: | Dawid, H.; Harting, P.; Neugart, M. |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial crisis, with periphery countries in the European Union falling even more behind the core countries economically, there have been quests for various kinds of fiscal policies in order to revert divergence. How these policies would unfold and perform comparatively is largely unknown. We analyze four such stylized policies in an agent-based macroeconomic model and study the economic mechanisms behind their relative success. Our main findings are that the core country sharing the debt burden of the periphery country has almost no effect on the growth dynamics of that region, fiscal transfers have a positive short- and long-run impact on per-capita consumption in the target region, and that technology-oriented firm subsidies have the strongest positive long-run impact on competitiveness of the periphery country at which they are targeted. The positive effect of the technology-oriented policy is reinforced if combined with household transfers. |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:146302&r= |
| By: | Roman Stöllinger |
| Abstract: | Abstract:The case for green industrial policy is strong and it is the obvious instrument to induce the structural transformation towards an emission-free economy. At the core of such a transformation lies the decarbonisation of the energy system. The industrial policy effort required to achieve the ambitious net zero objective in the European Green Deal (EGD) can be divided into three policy tasks: expanding renewable energy sources, raising energy efficiency across sectors and developing new technologies for industrial production processes where clean technologies are not available yet. While the first two tasks can rely on cost-competitive technologies and the required investment costs could in the long run pay for themselves, the third task constitutes formidable technological challenges that need to be tackled with a mission-oriented industrial policy. The industrial policy package employed ought to be a mix of public investments, green subsidies coupled with appropriate environmental regulations and an industrial mission for developing net zero industrial technologies. Importantly, with investment costs estimated at 1.75% of GDP per year, achieving the objectives of the EGD seems feasible also from a financial perspective. Despite this optimistic tone, the EGD is far from being a safe bet, and its success can easily be threatened by a plethora of factors, including opposition by vested interests or geopolitical confrontations. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2023:m:06:i:59&r= |
| By: | Gazilas, Emmanouil Taxiarchis |
| Abstract: | Intentional homicide rates represent a critical societal issue, impacting public safety and social stability across Europe. Understanding the socio-economic factors underlying these crimes is paramount for effective policy intervention. This research aims to investigate the socio-economic determinants of intentional homicides in 15 European countries over the period 2010-2021, providing insights into the complex relationship between economic indicators and violent crime rates. The study hypothesizes that economic prosperity, government debt, and access to financial services significantly influence intentional homicide rates, with countries exhibiting higher levels of economic development and financial inclusion experiencing lower homicide rates. Utilizing robust statistical and econometric techniques, including regression analysis and correlation matrices, the research examines the relationships between various socio-economic indicators and intentional homicide rates. Data spanning from national tax authorities, statistical agencies, and international organizations are meticulously analyzed to uncover meaningful patterns and associations. The findings reveal compelling associations between economic indicators and intentional homicide rates. Higher GDP per capita and greater financial inclusion are correlated with lower homicide rates, while elevated levels of government debt exhibit a negative association with homicide rates. These results underscore the multifaceted nature of crime dynamics and highlight the importance of considering broader socio-economic factors in understanding violent crime patterns. The study contributes to both theoretical knowledge and practical policymaking by offering insights into the socio-economic determinants of intentional homicides. These findings can inform evidence-based policy interventions aimed at promoting social stability and enhancing public safety across Europe, emphasizing the importance of addressing underlying economic factors in crime prevention strategies. |
| Keywords: | Intentional Homicides, Socio-Economic Factors, Public Safety, Economic Prosperity, Financial Inclusion, Policy Interventions |
| JEL: | D74 H56 I12 K14 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121304&r= |
| By: | von Ondarza, Nicolai; Stürzer, Isabella |
| Abstract: | Die Debatte in der Europäischen Union (EU) über die Ausweitung von Mehrheitsentscheidungen geht in eine neue Runde. Insbesondere Deutschland sucht unter dem Eindruck der teils schwierigen Entscheidungsfindung in der Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik sowie unter der Perspektive künftiger Erweiterungen eine Koalition für mehr Mehrheitsentscheidungen. Unterbeleuchtet ist in der Debatte, wie und mit welchem Ergebnis Mehrheitsentscheidungen in der Praxis genutzt werden. Eine Analyse der im neuen EU Council Monitor der SWP aufbereiteten öffentlichen Abstimmungen im Rat seit 2010 zeigt: Die EU-Mitgliedstaaten streben in der Regel auch bei Mehrheitsentscheidungen einen Konsens an. Größere Gruppen von Mitgliedstaaten werden so gut wie nie überstimmt. Zunehmend ragen aber mit Ungarn und Polen zwei Staaten heraus, die - auf einem etwas niedrigeren Niveau als Großbritannien vor dem Brexit - häufiger überstimmt werden als andere. Ein Ausweg aus dem Dilemma zwischen Handlungsfähigkeit der EU und dem Schutz legitimer nationaler Interessen könnte ein gut ausbalanciertes Souveränitätssicherheitsnetz sein. |
| Keywords: | EU, Europäische Union, EU-Erweiterung, EU-Reform, Mehrheitsentscheidungen, Mehrheitsbeschlüsse, Qualified Majority Voting, QMV, Einstimmigkeit, Entscheidungsverfahren, strukturelle Minderheiten, Handlungsfähigkeit der EU, nationale Souveränität, Rat der EU, Europäischer Rat, Polen, Ungarn, Großbritannien, Brexit, EU Council Monitor |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:299524&r= |
| By: | Doris Hanzl-Weiß |
| Abstract: | Abstract:The global automotive sector is undergoing major structural changes which in the next decades will pose significant challenges to the sector, but also offer opportunities. Highlighting three major disruptive trends, (i) shifts of global automotive production towards Asia, in particular China, (ii) trends in e-mobility, and (iii) problems in supply chains, this article shows how Austria and the Central and East European automotive sector have faced these shifts. Overall, the EU-CEE countries have benefited from the relocation of automotive companies to emerging countries and have been integrated into global, in particular German supply chains during the last thirty years. The e-revolution started off in 2020 and the EU-CEE had a rather good start. As the automotive industry is a key sector in the region, the electric transformation is vital for their future. While there are some positive trends, risks are manifold, and further efforts have to be undertaken so as not to be left behind. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2022:m:12:i:056&r= |
| By: | Jürgen Janger |
| Abstract: | Abstract:Interrupted supply chains in the wake of COVID-19 and Russia’s attack on Ukraine have highlighted the geopolitical risks of sourcing critical raw materials and products from a small number of authoritarian countries. The EU has initiated a flurry of activities to reduce unilateral dependencies, witnessed by trade, innovation and industrial policy instruments, such as the IPCEIs, the Chips Act and new anti-subsidy measures. This policy brief focuses on fostering technological sovereignty to insure against risks from international trade specifically in critical general purpose technologies. Bundles of innovation, industrial and trade policies enter three consistent policy mixes according to the distance to the technological frontier: for emerging technologies, the frontier policy mix emphasises an improvement in general framework conditions such as a more integrated European capital market. Technologies which lag behind the frontier benefit from coordinated support within the catch-up policy mix, while technologies at risk of losing their position at the frontier fall within the remit of the defensive policy mix. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2024:m:01:i:61&r= |
| By: | Schulze, Meike |
| Abstract: | Die politische Einigung auf das Europäische Gesetz zu kritischen Rohstoffen (Critical Raw Materials Act, CRMA) markiert einen bedeutenden Schritt in Richtung einer gemeinsamen Rohstoffpolitik der Europäischen Union (EU). In Anbetracht wachsender geopolitischer Spannungen strebt die EU nach mehr "strategischer Autonomie" entlang von Rohstofflieferketten. Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, ist eine engere Zusammenarbeit mit mineralreichen Drittstaaten unerlässlich. Das geopolitische Umfeld erfordert es, dass die EU in der Rohstoffaußenpolitik koordiniert auftritt. Nur so wird sie diplomatisch wie programmatisch ansprechende Rohstoffpartnerschaften umsetzen können. |
| Keywords: | Europäisches Gesetz zu kritischen Rohstoffen, Critical Raw Materials Act, CRMA, strategische Rohstoffe, kritische Rohstoffe, Rohstoffpolitik der Europäischen Union, EU-Rohstoffstrategie, Rohstoffdiplomatie, Rohstoffaußenpolitik, Rohstofflieferketten, Lieferketten, mineralische Rohstoffe, Rohstoffimporte, Importabhängigkeit, strategische Rohstoffpartnerschaften, Rohstoffkooperationen, Diversifizierung, strategische Autonomie, USA, China, Saudi-Arabien, Mittlere Mächte, Chile, Südafrika, Indonesien, Sambia, Demokratische Republik Kongo, Wertschöpfung, Wertschöpfungsketten, Inflation Reduction Act, IRA, Mineral Security Partnership, MSP, Rohstofffonds, Global-Gateway-Initiative |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:299522&r= |
| By: | Janssen, Thilo; Lübker, Malte |
| Abstract: | Mit einem Rückgang der Reallöhne um 4, 0 % erlitten die Beschäftigten in der Europäischen Union im Jahr 2022 einen bisher einmaligen Verlust an Kaufkraft. Ursächlich war der rapide Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise, hinter den das Nominallohnwachstum deutlich zurückfiel. Inzwischen wird die Teuerung nicht mehr von den Importpreisen für Energie, sondern von inländischen Faktoren bestimmt. Die gestiegenen Gewinnmargen der Unternehmen sind dabei eine wesentliche Ursache der beharrlichen Inflation. In diesem schwierigen Umfeld ergibt sich für die Gewerkschaften die Herausforderung, die Reallöhne zu sichern - und für die Unternehmen die Verantwortung, durch den Abbau der Übergewinne ihren Beitrag zur Rückkehr auf den stabilitätspolitischen Pfad zu leisten. |
| Abstract: | With real wages falling by 4.0 % in 2022, workers in the European Union suffered an unprecedented loss in purchasing power. The reason for this was the rapid increase in consumer prices, behind which nominal wage growth fell significantly. Meanwhile, inflation is no longer driven by energy import prices, but by domestic factors. The increased profit margins of companies are a major reason for persistent inflation. In this difficult environment, the trade unions are faced with the challenge of securing real wages - and companies have the responsibility of making their contribution to returning to the path of political stability by reducing excess profits. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, Wirtschaft |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsirep:299257&r= |
| By: | Asatryan, Zareh; Birkholz, Carlo; Heinemann, Friedrich |
| Abstract: | The EU's Cohesion Policy (CP) intends to promote European economic, social, and territorial cohesion. The policy occupies about a third of the EU budget and it is the most evaluated of all EU policies. With the support of the German Ministry of Finance, two in-depth ZEW research papers by international author teams have assessed this evaluation system by analyzing its institutions and by applying AI-powered textual analysis of about 2, 500 Member State evaluations. The results indicate that the evaluation system lacks important elements in producing fully credible evaluations. A fundamental problem stems from the design of the CP itself: An increasing number of CP objectives blur the precision of the policy and lead to a loss of a well-defined yardstick against which policy success can be judged. Our survey of evaluators confirms this with more than 60 percent of respondents regarding unclear policy objectives as a bottleneck for the evaluation system. Our results also point to limits in evaluation culture and methods where evaluations are sometimes just seen as a formalistic obligation. Another crucial limitation is a lack of full and effective impartiality. This is evidenced by the fact that 71 percent of survey respondents report at least somewhat intense involvement by the managing authorities in their work. Moreover, evaluation teams lack internationality, while the national markets are typically dominated by a few groups. In the end, data using measurements from our textual analysis points to a suspicious inconsistency between the findings of the academic literature on the impacts of Cohesion Policy and the results of evaluations. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:300072&r= |
| By: | Fritz Breuss |
| Abstract: | In the recently published FIW Policy Brief No. 57, Fritz Breuss (WIFO, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration) takes stock of the effects of the European Single Market and points out the challenges for economic policy to safeguard and further develop the European fundamental freedoms. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2023:m:01:i:57&r= |
| By: | Lübker, Malte; Schulten, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | In den meisten EU-Staaten kam es zum 1. Januar 2024 zu deutlichen Erhöhungen der Mindestlöhne. Diese reichten trotz anhaltend hoher Inflationsraten in der Mehrzahl der Mitgliedsländer aus, um die Kaufkraft des Mindestlohns zu erhalten oder sogar auszubauen. Begünstigt wurde die Mindestlohndynamik auch durch die im Herbst 2022 verabschiedete Europäische Mindestlohnrichtlinie. Viele Mitgliedsländer streben im Zuge der Umsetzung der EU-Richtlinie an, die dort verankerten Referenzwerte von 60 % des Medianlohns bzw. 50 % des Durchschnittslohns zu erreichen. Anders verlief die Entwicklung in Deutschland: Hier plädierte die Mindestlohnkommission gegen die Stimmen der Gewerkschaften nur für eine geringe Anhebung des Mindestlohns, die hinter die Preisentwicklung zurückfällt. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsirep:299266&r= |
| By: | Javier Flórez Mendoza; Bernhard Moshammer |
| Abstract: | Abstract:Since the second half of 2022, the debate regarding the ratification of the EU–Mercosur agreement has gained significant momentum on both sides of the Atlantic. On one side, there's the recently elected Brazilian president who supports its ratification, a libertarian Argentinian presidential candidate who believes the agreement doesn't go far enough, and a Paraguayan president who has stated that negotiations with the EU will be terminated if the parties do not reach a deal by December when Paraguay assumes Mercosur's presidency. On the other side, the European Union is grappling with ongoing supply-chain disruptions and the geopolitical implications of the Russian war against Ukraine, leading to a need to reevaluate its global political and economic relationships and the varying opinions within the EU regarding the agreement.This policy brief will analyze significant developments since 2019, explore the potential benefits of the EU–Mercosur agreement, and address concerns that have been raised. It will also assess the economic roles of other key actors in the region, namely the USA and China, and the economic sectors of particular importance, such as agriculture and raw materials, in the ongoing discussions surrounding the conclusion of the EU–Mercosur agreement. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2023:m:11:i:60&r= |
| By: | Elisabeth Christen; Birgit Meyer; Harald Oberhofer; Julian Hinz; Katrin Kamin; Joschka Wanner |
| Abstract: | The creation of uniform, legally binding norms and standards is an essential basis for the functioning of the EU single market, which at the same time is increasingly spread beyond the EU's borders through international trade relations. The shaping of global standards and regulations according to EU directives even beyond the EU's borders represents an important competitive advantage of the EU. The EU also manages to impose rules, regulations and standards only through market mechanisms in third countries without international treaties or agreements. This has in many areas contributed to the "Europeanisation" of important aspects of global trade. In the academic literature, this regulatory influence of the EU is defined as the "Brussels Effect". The focus of this study is to give a comprehensive overview of the Brussels Effect and to analyse the linkages regarding EU trade policy, outlining to what extent a Brussels Effect can be observed in the network of EU trade agreements. Based on a comprehensive and broad identification of the Brussels Effect, this study aims to quantify the trade effects in terms of the leading role in shaping global standards and regulations for the EU and Austria and to qualitatively identify further areas in which untapped potentials of a "Brussels Effect 2.0" seem possible in the context of EU trade policy. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:ecbook:y:2022:m:10:i:viii-007&r= |