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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒07‒08
twenty-one papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Gerald P. Dwyer (Banco de España); Biljana Gilevska (Banco de España); María J. Nieto (Banco de España); Margarita Samartín (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of all three major European Central Bank (ECB) unconventional monetary policies since 2011 for euro area banks’ holdings of loans, government securities and cash deposited in central banks. The three ECB policies are longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs), the asset purchase programmes and the ECB’s interest rate on its deposit facility. We also compare the responses of non-crisis and crisis countries to these policies. Our evidence indicates that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy measures increased bank lending across the euro area countries. The second round of LTROs, also known as targeted LTROs (TLTROs), were conditional on banks increasing their lending. This change had a substantially larger effect on total lending by banks. The computed effects of the LTROs and TLTROs, based on average size, indicate that in non-crisis countries LTROs increased bank loans by 7.6% of assets and TLTROs increased bank loans by 16.4% of assets, whereas in crisis countries the increases were 8.4% and 14.6% for LTROs and TLTROs, respectively. We find that both LTROs and TLTROs were associated with decreases in government securities held by banks in non-crisis countries, while the LTROs were associated with increases in government securities held by banks in crisis countries. |
| Keywords: | euro area, unconventional monetary policy, banks, financial crisis |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2416&r= |
| By: | Christian Bittner; Alexander Rodnyansky; Farzad Saidi; Yannick Timmer |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction of expansionary rate-based monetary policy and quantitative easing, despite their concurrent implementation, by exploiting heterogeneous banks and the introduction of negative monetary-policy rates in a fragmented euro area. Quantitative easing increases credit supply less, translating into weaker employment growth, when banks’ funding costs do not decrease. Using administrative data from Germany, we uncover that among banks selling their securities, central-bank reserves remain disproportionately with high-deposit banks that are constrained due to sticky customer deposits at the zero lower bound. Affected German banks lend relatively less to firms while increasing their interbank exposure in the euro area. |
| Keywords: | Negative Interest Rates, Quantitative Easing, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bank Lending Channel |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 E63 F45 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_552&r= |
| By: | Ursel Baumann; Annalisa Ferrando; Dimitris Georgarakos; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Timo Reinelt |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new survey evidence on firms’ inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB’s Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across countries and shed new light on the properties and causal effects of these expectations. We find considerable heterogeneity in firms’ inflation expectations and show that firms disagree about future inflation more than professional forecasters but less than households. We document that differences in firms’ demographics, firms’ choices and constraints, and cross-country macroeconomic environments account for most of the variation in inflation expectations by roughly equal shares. Using an RCT approach, we show that firms update their inflation expectations in a Bayesian manner. Moreover, they revise their plans regarding prices, wages, costs and employment in response to information treatments about current or future inflation. |
| JEL: | E20 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32504&r= |
| By: | António Afonso; José Carlos Coelho |
| Abstract: | We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in 20 OECD economies between 1950 and 2019. We find stable long-term relationships between government revenues and expenditures as well as between the primary budget balance and past public debt ratio for the full panel. Performing an expanding window analysis, we conclude that the differential between the long-term real interest rate and the real GDP growth rate (r-g) plays a crucial role in fiscal sustainability, as well as the existence of fiscal rules in terms of the budget balance, and also the output gap. The effects of inflation, external accounts balance and fiscal rules on sustainability coefficients à la Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Bohn (1998) are heterogenous. Furthermore, before the global financial crisis of 2008, the effects of the (r-g) differential were particularly strong, and depended on its sign as well as on past debt-to-GDP ratios. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, primary budget balance, public debt, panel data, expanding window, fiscal rules |
| JEL: | C23 H61 H63 E62 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11137&r= |
| By: | Linta, Tanja |
| Abstract: | This paper measures variation in central bank credibility through the level of agree-ment in a monetary policy committee and empirically studies its relevance for the effectiveness of forward guidance. In the European Central Bank’s (ECB) insti-tutional framework, high-frequency identification shows that non-unanimity within the Governing Council makes financial markets doubt the credibility of their com-mitment to forward guidance promises. Instead, they expect a change in policy direction, regardless of the ECB promising the opposite. Reduced credibility of the commitment then dampens the effect the easing bias in communication has on expectations while confirming unanimity does not seem to reinforce it. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129332&r= |
| By: | Rhys Bidder; Timothy Jackson; Matthias Rottner |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of central bank digital currency (CBDC) on banks and the broader economy - drawing on novel survey evidence and using a structural macroeconomic model with endogenous bank runs. A substantial share of German respondents would include CBDCs in their portfolio in normal times - replacing, in part, commercial bank deposits. This is hypothetical evidence for `slow’ disintermediation of the banking system. During periods of banking distress, households' willingness to shift to CBDC is even larger, implying a risk of `fast’ disintermediation. Our structural model captures both phenomena and allows for policy prescriptions. We calibrate to the Euro area and then introduce CBDC, exploiting our survey to parameterize its demand. We find two contrasting effects of CBDC on financial stability. `Slow' disintermediation shrinks a run-prone banking system with positive welfare effects. But the ability of CBDC to offer safety at scale makes bank-runs more likely. For reasonable calibrations, this second `fast disintermediation' effect dominates and the introduction of CBDC decreases financial stability and welfare. However, complementing CBDC with a holding limit or pegging remuneration to policy rates can reverse these results such that CBDC is welfare improving. Such policies retain the gains of increased stability arising from `slow' disintermediation while limiting the downsides of `fast' disintermediation. |
| Keywords: | CBDC, Financial Crises, Disintermediation, Run, Banking System, Money |
| JEL: | E42 E44 E51 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202407&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risk on stock prices of 29 economies by using the local projections method for the monthly period between 1985M1-2023M9. The results show that a positive unit shock of global geopolitical risk (normalized to one standard deviation) reduces stock prices (normalized to one standard deviation) in a statistically significant way by 0.80 in Latvia, 0.71 in China, 0.62 in the Euro Area, 0.50 in Sweden, 0.42 in the United Kingdom, 0.39 in the United States, 0.38 in Switzerland, 0.34 in Israel, 0.28 in Canada, and 0.21 in Denmark in a year following the shock, whereas it increases those only in Iceland by 0.28 that can be used to hedge against any geopolitical risk. Subsample analyses further suggest that the negative effects of the same shock exist in several economies (including the United States, China and Euro Area) during the first half of the sample period that coincides with the geopolitical events that the United States is involved with, whereas they only exist in Russia, Poland, Euro Area and the United Kingdom for the second half of the sample period, suggesting that the Russo-Ukrainian War has mostly affected the stock prices in these nearby economies. It is implied that the geographical location of geopolitical events as well as the countries involved are important indicators to understand the effects of any global geopolitical risk on stock prices. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Stock Prices, Local Projections Method |
| JEL: | G15 G41 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2407&r= |
| By: | Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak; Jakub Mućk |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an extension of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model that accounts for the trade linkages within the Global Value Chains (GVCs). In the modified FEER framework, both backward and forward linkages are taken into consideration. To demonstrate the empirical relevance of the complex nature of existing trade linkages, the proposed FEER model is applied to analyze exchange rate fluctuations of the selected Central and Eastern European countries against the euro. It is documented that in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland the standard FEER framework predicts rapid appreciation of the equilibrium exchange rate after 2010, which implies deepening undervaluation of the actual real exchange rate towards the end of the analysed period. Instead, when the GVCs' linkages are taken into account in the framework, actual real exchange rates are broadly in line with the fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, and hence the missing real appreciation of the Czech krone, the Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty is to a large extent an equilibrium phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, current account, foreign trade, Global Value Chains |
| JEL: | C32 C33 F12 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2024100&r= |
| By: | Gulácsi, Gábor; Kerényi, Ádám |
| Abstract: | Magyarország 20 éve, 2004 óta az Európai Unió tagja. Az elmúlt húsz évben az ország gazdasági fejlettsége számottevően közeledett az EU27 átlagához, ugyanakkor az unió keleti kibővítés keretében csatlakozott országok (peer országok) többségéhez képest romlott a pozíciója, ebben a rangsorban a 3. helyről a 7. helyre esett vissza. Először a magyar gazdasági fejlődés uniós hajtóerőit, az egységes piachoz kapcsolódás és az EU-tól kapott támogatás hatásait vizsgáljuk. Ezt követően a peer országok többségéhez képesti magyar fejlettségi pozíció vesztés magyarázatát keressük. A 2010 előtti időszakban a kettős deviza adósságcsapdához vezető koalíciós kormányzást, míg a 2010 utáni időszakban a létrehozott tekintélyelvű politikai rendszer piaci versenyt elfojtó hatását azonosítottuk a pozíció vesztés fő okaiként. Statisztikai elemzést végzünk, adaptáljuk a Magyarország-Európai Unió viszonyrendszert értelmező konceptuális sémákat és értékeljük ezek alkalmazhatóságát. Végül a fejlesztési célú közpénzek magyarországi felhasználásának vizsgálatában egy újabb elemzési eszközre – egy kétdimenziós normatív keretre - is javaslatot teszünk. |
| Keywords: | Magyarország EU tagsága, felzárkózás, egységes piac, uniós támogatások, NER, dezintegráció |
| JEL: | F15 F36 O47 O52 P20 P27 |
| Date: | 2024–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121131&r= |
| By: | Caterina Morelli; Simone Boccaletti; Paolo Maranzano; Philipp Otto |
| Abstract: | The assessment of corporate sustainability performance is extremely relevant in facilitating the transition to a green and low-carbon intensity economy. However, companies located in different areas may be subject to different sustainability and environmental risks and policies. Henceforth, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the spatial and temporal pattern of the sustainability evaluations of European firms. We leverage on a large dataset containing information about companies' sustainability performances, measured by MSCI ESG ratings, and geographical coordinates of firms in Western Europe between 2013 and 2023. By means of a modified version of the Chavent et al. (2018) hierarchical algorithm, we conduct a spatial clustering analysis, combining sustainability and spatial information, and a spatiotemporal clustering analysis, which combines the time dynamics of multiple sustainability features and spatial dissimilarities, to detect groups of firms with homogeneous sustainability performance. We are able to build cross-national and cross-industry clusters with remarkable differences in terms of sustainability scores. Among other results, in the spatio-temporal analysis, we observe a high degree of geographical overlap among clusters, indicating that the temporal dynamics in sustainability assessment are relevant within a multidimensional approach. Our findings help to capture the diversity of ESG ratings across Western Europe and may assist practitioners and policymakers in evaluating companies facing different sustainability-linked risks in different areas. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.20191&r= |
| By: | R. Saba; A. Pireddu |
| Abstract: | The European decarbonisation pathway, initiated by the Green Deal and reinforced by RePowerEU and the 'Fit for 55' package, emphasizes the critical role of sustainable energy transition for both the EU and the Mediterranean region. This shift requires rapid adoption of renewable energy, phasing out fossil fuels, and developing green hydrogen and Power to X technologies. Consequently, expanding and advancing electricity infrastructures, such as grids and storage systems, is essential to manage increased electrification and distributed energy production and consumption. Italy faces significant delays in connecting projects to the national grid, highlighting the need for urgent infrastructural improvements. Investments by TERNA and ENEL aim to enhance grid integration within Italy and between European and Mediterranean transmission systems. Benefits of transnational energy integration include delaying new fossil-fuelled power plants, reducing reserve capacity needs, lowering system costs, and enhancing energy sharing, reliability, and competition. The EU s strategic pursuit of energy integration is underscored by geopolitical tensions emphasizing the importance of cross-border energy flows and diversified electricity suppliers. The Joint Communication for a Renewed Partnership with the Southern Neighbourhood focuses on low-carbon energy transition, renewable energy, and clean hydrogen. The Mediterranean region s abundant solar and wind resources present significant cooperation opportunities in clean energy, particularly hydrogen production. Key projects like the ELMED-TUNITA and regional initiatives such as the Eight Country Interconnection Project facilitate energy sharing and stability. Italy s potential as an energy hub in the Euro-Mediterranean network is evident, primarily focusing on electricity and renewable energy sources. Sardinia plays a crucial role with ambitious targets for renewable energy to support the energy transition. Future energy cooperation between Europe and the Mediterranean will depend on harmonizing legal frameworks, sharing climate goals, and increasing financial resources. Ensuring a just transition, based on equity and solidarity, is essential for sustainable development and balanced growth in the Mediterranean. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202409&r= |
| By: | Clemens Stiewe; Alice Lixuan Xu; Anselm Eicke; Lion Hirth |
| Abstract: | The average revenue, or market value, of wind and solar energy tends to fall with increasing market shares, as is now evident across European electricity markets. At the same time, these markets have become more interconnected. In this paper, we empirically study the multiple cross-border effects on the value of renewable energy: on one hand, interconnection is a flexibility resource that allows to export energy when it is locally abundant, benefitting renewables. On the other hand, wind and solar radiation are correlated across space, so neighboring supply adds to the local one to depress domestic prices. We estimate both effects, using spatial panel regression on electricity market data from 2015 to 2023 from 30 European bidding zones. We find that domestic wind and solar value is not only depressed by domestic, but also by neighboring renewables expansion. The better interconnected a market is, the smaller the effect of domestic but the larger the effect of neighboring renewables. While wind value is stabilized by interconnection, solar value is not. If wind market share increases both at home and in neighboring markets by one percentage point, the value factor of wind energy is reduced by just above 1 percentage points. For solar, this number is almost 4 percentage points. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.17166&r= |
| By: | Karol Szafranek; Michał Rubaszek |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered severe disruptions in the European energy markets and caused significant shifts in global natural gas flows. In this paper we investigate to what extent this European shock has affected the dynamics and altered the estimates of the elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. For that purpose, we use the Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework proposed by Baumeister and Hamilton (2019, BH) for the crude oil market and applied by Rubaszek, Uddin, and Szafranek (2021, RSU) to analyze the dynamics of U.S. natural gas market till year 2020. We modify the RSU model to account for natural gas trade and next derive the posterior of the model using observations till 2023. This allows us to approximate the impact of the European energy crisis on the U.S. market. Our result are twofold. First, we show that due to our modification the RSU model the estimates of the elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market change, while simply updating the same prior beliefs with most recent data impacts the posterior estimates to a very limited extent. Second, we find that even as major shock as the European energy crisis has only marginally contributed to the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market. This result confirms earlier studies, which show that the U.S. natural gas market is barely affected by shocks to the European natural gas market. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas market, structural VAR, Impulse-response function, Bayesian inference |
| JEL: | C11 C32 Q31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2024099&r= |
| By: | Bernhard Ganglmair; Julia Krämer; Jacopo Gambato |
| Abstract: | The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) of 2018 introduced stringent transparency rules compelling firms to disclose, in accessible language, details of their data collection, processing, and use. The specifics of the disclosure requirement are objective, and its compliance is easily verifiable; readability, however, is subjective and difficult to enforce. We use a simple inspection model to show how this asymmetric enforceability of regulatory rules and the corresponding firm compliance are linked. We then examine this link empirically using a large sample of privacy policies from German firms. We use text-as-data techniques to construct measures of disclosure and readability and show that firms increased the disclosure volume, but the readability of their privacy policies did not improve. Larger firms in concentrated industries demonstrated a stronger response in readability compliance, potentially due to heightened regulatory scrutiny. Moreover, data protection authorities with larger budgets induce better readability compliance without effects on disclosure. |
| Keywords: | data protection, disclosure, GDPR, privacy policies, readability, regulation, text-as-data, topic models |
| JEL: | C81 D23 K12 K20 L51 M15 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_547&r= |
| By: | Ylenia Curci; Nathalie Greenan; Silvia Napolitano |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tep:teppwp:wp24-02&r= |
| By: | Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China's share in European trade has fallen continuously. Nevertheless, the country remains the EU's largest source of imports (20.5 percent in 2023) and its third largest export destination (8.7 percent). • This apparent dominance of China is put into perspective when incorporating intra-EU trade. For example, Germany - Europe's largest economy - sent 6.1 percent of its exports to China, but 55 percent to EU members states. For imports, the Chinese and European shares are 11.5 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. • Decoupling the EU from China (i.e. almost eliminating bilateral trade) would permanently reduce European real income by 0.8 percent in the long-run. In terms of gross domestic product in 2023, the EU would forego 136 billion EUR of value added every year. Short-term effects are likely to be stronger. • China dominates global production of important products such as laptops and mobile phones as well as raw materials including Germanium and Gallium that are critical for the green energy transition. A trade disruption might thus both delay the energy transition and increase its costs. • To reduce specific dependencies, the EU should intensify its efforts to diversify procurement by increasing the attractiveness of alternative suppliers. Finding the courage to move forward in the negotiation of free trade agreements with potential strategic partners such as Australia and the Mercosur countries would strengthen the EU's geopolitical position and increase prosperity among partners. |
| Abstract: | Im Nachgang der Covid-19-Pandemie ist der Anteil Chinas am europäischen Handel kontinuierlich gesunken. Dennoch bleibt das Land die größte Importquelle der EU (20, 5 Pro-zent im Jahr 2023) und ihr drittgrößtes Exportziel (8, 7 Prozent). • Diese scheinbare Dominanz Chinas relativiert sich, wenn man den Intra-EU-Handel mit einbezieht. Deutschland - die größte europäische Volkswirtschaft - lieferte beispielsweise 6, 1 Prozent seiner Ausfuhren nach China, aber 55 Prozent in die EU-Mitgliedstaaten. Bei den Einfuhren liegen die chinesischen und europäischen Anteile bei 11, 5 Prozent bzw. 52, 7 Prozent. • Eine Abkopplung der EU von China (d.h. ein weitgehender Wegfall des bilateralen Handels) würde das europäische Realeinkommen langfristig um 0, 8 Prozent senken. Bezogen auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2023 würde die EU jährlich auf 136 Milliarden EUR an Wertschöpfung verzichten. Kurzfristig dürften die Auswirkungen stärker sein. • China dominiert die weltweite Produktion von wichtigen Produkten wie Laptops und Mobiltelefonen sowie von Rohstoffen wie Germanium und Gallium, die für die grüne Energiewende entscheidend sind. Eine Handelsunterbrechung könnte daher sowohl die Energiewende verzögern als auch deren Kosten erhöhen. • Um spezifische Abhängigkeiten zu verringern, sollte die EU ihre Bemühungen um eine Diversifizierung der Beschaffung verstärken, indem sie die Attraktivität alternativer Lieferanten erhöht. Den Mut zu finden, die Verhandlungen über Freihandelsabkommen mit potenziellen strategischen Partnern wie Australien und den Mercosur-Ländern voranzutreiben, würde die geopolitische Position der EU stärken und den Wohlstand aller Beteiligten erhöhen. |
| Keywords: | China, European Union, Germany, international trade, decoupling, China, Europäische Union, Deutschland, internationaler Handel, Entkopplung |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:297975&r= |
| By: | Andre, Peter; Hackmann, Angelina |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that support for climate action is high across survey participants from all EU countries in three dimensions: (1) Participants are willing to contribute personally to combating climate change, (2) they approve of pro-climate social norms, and (3) they demand government action. In addition, there is a significant perception gap where individuals underestimate others' willingness to contribute to climate action by over 10 percentage points, influencing their own willingness to act. Policymakers should recognize the broad support for climate action among European citizens and communicate this effectively to counteract the vocal minority opposed to it. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Climate Behavior, Climate Policies, Social Norms |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:296482&r= |
| By: | Santiago Calvo Ramos; Joana Elisa Maldonado; Anneleen Vandeplas; Istvan Vanyolos |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a review of estimates of the prevalence of long COVID in the EU, and a tentative assessment of its economic impact, in particular on labour supply. This tentative approach yields an estimated prevalence of long COVID cases of around 1.7% of the EU population in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, resulting in a negative impact on labour supply of 0.2-0.3% in 2021 and 0.3-0.5% in 2022. In person-equivalents, this means long COVID would have reduced labour supply by 364, 000–663, 000 in 2021 and by 621, 000-1, 112, 000 in 2022, combining the effect of lower productivity, higher sick leaves, lower hours, and increased unemployment or inactivity. The lower bound of this range is close to a recent estimate put forward for the US (Abraham & Rendell, 2023). These figures imply that long COVID could have caused an output loss of 0.1–0.2% in 2021 and 0.2–0.3% in 2022. Available labour market data suggest a mixed picture when it comes to the impact of long COVID. Overall, the possible role of long COVID in the rising trend in sick leave, disability and activity-limiting health factors, warrants careful monitoring going forward, due to its potential impact on labour supply and labour productivity, and on public finances through increased social benefits, pensions, health care and long-term care expenditure. |
| Keywords: | long COVID, economic impact, labour supply, EU output loss |
| JEL: | E23 E24 I18 J01 J21 J22 O5 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecobri:077&r= |
| By: | Ronald Bachmann; Myrielle Gonschor |
| Abstract: | We analyze if technological progress and the change in the occupational structure have improved women’s position in the labour market. We show that women increasingly work in non-routine manual and in interactive occupations. However, the observed narrowing of the gender wage gap is entirely driven by declining gender wag gaps within, rather than between, occupations. A decomposition exercise reveals that while explained factors have become more important contributors to the gender wage gap, the importance of unexplained factors factors has strongly declined. Therefore, unequal treatment based on unobservables, i.e. discrimination, is likely to have declined over time. Finally, technological change as measured by job tasks plays an ambiguous role. Institutional factors, and in particular part-time employment, are still a major driver of the gender wage gap. |
| Keywords: | Technological progress, job tasks, occupational structure, gender gaps, gender wage gap |
| JEL: | J24 J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1207&r= |
| By: | Ioramashvili, Carolin |
| Abstract: | I estimate employment multiplier effects by skill group from graduate employment and innovation at the NUTS1 and 2 level in France, Germany and the UK. Using local projections, I estimate the effects over 5-year horizons. Both graduate employment and patenting have temporary, positive impacts on non-graduate and mid-skilled employment. There is considerable heterogeneity in terms of the direction and magnitude of the effects across the three countries. The paper shows that innovation can be a source of regional employment growth, even for those without a graduate degree. |
| Keywords: | skills; regions; patents; invention; employment |
| JEL: | J21 J24 O18 O33 O40 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123630&r= |
| By: | Marx, Ive (University of Antwerp); Haapanala, Henri (University of Antwerp); Marchal, Sarah (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | There has not been much progress on the poverty front in Europe over recent decades, at least if we take it as a relative phenomenon in affluent societies. There is a lot of pessimism about the possibility of making any real progress at all. Some argue that adequate poverty relief is simply too expensive or that it would put too much of a redistributive burden on the electorally powerful, making it politically difficult, if not infeasible. Another prominent argument is that wage floors and thus out-of-work benefit levels are inexorably under pressure, making poverty relief both harder to achieve and more expensive in budgetary terms. This paper sets out these accounts and focuses on what has been happening to statutory, absolute and effective wage floors in Europe over the past decades. We ask whether progress on the poverty front through pushing up wage floors and subsequently out-of-work benefits is a realistic prospect. We see reasons for optimism. |
| Keywords: | poverty, income distribution, Europe |
| JEL: | J01 I39 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16967&r= |