|
on European Economics |
|
Issue of 2024‒05‒20
nineteen papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Corentin Roussel |
| Abstract: | Output floor has emerged as a possibly important tool to ensure financial stability within the banking system. This paper proposes to assess the quantitative potential of output floor to ensure financial stability through the lens of a general equilibrium model for the Euro Area. We get three main results. First, implementation of output floor entails macrofinancial stabilization benefits for Euro Area activities in the long run, which confirms results found by financial European regulators. Second, along financial and economic cycles, output floor activation reduces volatility of banks capital to risk-weighted-asset ratio and the dispersion of this ratio between core and periphery banks, consistently with the desired outcome defined by financial regulators. Third, moderate banking openness in Euro Area limits cross-border credit flows spillovers, which does not affect output floor efficiency. However, full banking openness (i.e. banking union) produces high spillovers and erodes this efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Output Floor, Credit Risk, Banking System, Euro Area, DSGE. |
| JEL: | G21 F36 F41 E44 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-18&r=eec |
| By: | Ferrara, Federico Maria |
| Abstract: | This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles in the euro area. Using proprietary data on purchases of public sector securities implemented by the Eurosystem, the paper examines the flow effects of asset purchase programmes on 10-year government bond yields in secondary markets around dates of public debt auctions. The findings indicate that Eurosystem’s asset purchase flows mitigate yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility. The dampening effect of central bank asset purchases on auction cycles is more sizeable and precisely estimated for purchases of securities with medium-term maturities and in jurisdictions with relatively lower credit ratings. The analysis has broader implications for monetary policy and market functioning in the euro area. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G12, G14 |
| Keywords: | bond yields, Eurosystem, flow effects, public debt auctions, unconventional monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242927&r=eec |
| By: | Christian Bittner (Deutsche Bundesbank and Goethe University Frankfurt); Alexander Rodnyansky (Presidential Offce of Ukraine, University of Cambridge, and CEPR); Farzad Saidi (University of Bonn and CEPR); Yannick Timmer (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction of expansionary rate-based monetary policy and quantitative easing, despite their concurrent implementation, by exploiting heterogeneous banks and the introduction of negative monetary-policy rates in a fragmented euro area. Quantitative easing increases credit supply less, translating into weaker employment growth, when banks' funding costs do not decrease. Using administrative data from Germany, we uncover that among banks selling their securities, central-bank reserves remain disproportionately with high-deposit banks that are constrained due to sticky customer deposits at the zero lower bound. Affected German banks lend relatively less to firms while increasing their interbank exposure in the euro area. |
| Keywords: | Negative Interest Rates, Quantitative Easing, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bank Lending Channel |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 E63 F45 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:292&r=eec |
| By: | Hartung, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Banks in the euro area can generate high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) by borrowing central bank reserves from the Eurosystem against non-HQLA collateral. This paper quantifies the extent of this liquidity transformation and finds that on average EUR 0.92 of net HQLA are generated for each euro of credit provided by the Eurosystem. The paper then identifies intentional liquidity transformation using two novel approaches: The first approach compares the liquidity profile of already pledged vs new collateral, and the second approach compares the liquidity profile of the pool of pledged securities with banks' total eligible securities holdings. Both approaches show that banks use their least liquid assets as collateral first and pledge more liquid assets only at the margin. This intentional liquidity transformation is sizable and accounts for 30-60% of generated HQLA. These results are relevant for calibrating the collateral framework as well as the optimal size and composition of the Eurosystem balance sheet. JEL Classification: C23, E52, E58, G28 |
| Keywords: | central bank operational framework, collateral framework, liquidity coverage ratio, liquidity transformation, reserve demand |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242933&r=eec |
| By: | Silke Tober (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); ThomasTheobald (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | The ECB was not slow to react to the rising inflation, but rather reacted very strongly as the price shocks escalated and the supply bottlenecks persisted longer than widely expected. The ECB raised rates later and less forcefully than the Federal Reserve because the inflation dynamics in the euro area differ significantly from those in the euro area. The U.S. economy was robust on the eve of the pandemic, the unemployment rate had reached historic lows, and the key policy rate was above 2 %, whereas the ECB's policy rate was below zero, unemployment high and the economy still recovering from previous crises. During the post-pandemic recovery, high U.S. aggregate demand boosted global inflation, whereas the European economy struggled to cope with the extensive fallout of the Ukraine war. In themselves, price shocks cannot cause inflation to remain persistently above target. Although wage increases are currently not compatible with the inflation target, monetary policy restriction is not necessary because falling energy prices and lower extra profits should compensate for the slight overshooting of wage and inflation expectations are anchored. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:report:181e-2023&r=eec |
| By: | Jean-Guillaume Sahuc; Grégory Levieuge; José Garcia-Revelo |
| Abstract: | The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve introduced new policy instruments and made changes to their operational frameworks to address the global financial crisis (2008) and the Covid-19 pandemic (2020). We study the macroeconomic effects of these monetary policy evolutions on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean by developing and estimating a tractable two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We show that the euro area and the United States faced shocks of different natures, explaining some asynchronous monetary policy measures between 2008 and 2023. However, counterfactual exercises highlight that all conventional and unconventional policies implemented since 2008 have appropriately (i) supported economic growth and (ii) maintained inflation on track in both areas. The exception is the delayed reaction to the inflationary surge during 2021-2022. Furthermore, exchange rate shocks played a significant role in shaping the overall monetary conditions of the two economies. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, real exchange rate dynamics, two-country DSGE model, Bayesian estimation, counterfactual exercises |
| JEL: | E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-13&r=eec |
| By: | Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Kornprobst, Antoine; Priftis, Romanos |
| Abstract: | We evaluate how the euro area economy would have performed since mid-2021 under alternative monetary policy strategies. We use the ECB’s workhorse estimated DSGE model and contrast actual policy conduct against alternative strategies which differ in their ”lower-for-longer” commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility. Assuming that the monetary authority had full knowledge of prevailing conditions from mid-2021 onwards, the alternative policy strategies would call for anticipated timing of the start of the hiking cycle: earlier tightening would prevent inflation from peaking at 10%, but the forceful tightening since 2022:Q3 prevented higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, once evaluating monetary policy on real-time quarterly vintages of incoming data and projections, the alternative interest rate paths would be broadly consistent with the observed policy conduct. The proximity of some benchmark optimal policy counterfactuals with the baseline, brings further indication that the actual policy conduct succeeded in implementing an efficient management of the output-inflation trade-off. JEL Classification: C53, E31, E42, E52, E58 |
| Keywords: | dual mandate, estimated DSGE model, euro area, monetary policy frameworks, optimal policy |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242935&r=eec |
| By: | Javier Gil-Bazo; Raffaele Santioni |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the Securities Holdings Statistics from the Eurosystem, we study the relation between shareholder country concentration and flow risk for euro area mutual funds. We find that funds with a more geographically dispersed investor base experience more volatile flows. The link between shareholder country concentration and flow risk is a widespread phenomenon: It holds for funds investing in different asset classes and in different regions. However, we find no difference in net performance between funds with more and less concentrated shareholders, which suggests that any potential costs of investors’ geographic dispersion are offset by either enhanced liquidity management or superior performance. Additional tests reveal that investors in funds with higher geographic shareholder dispersion are more sensitive to fund performance, consistently with a clientele effect driving our findings. Finally, we show that the positive association between geographic investor dispersion and flow risk holds for different measures of flow risk and is not driven by institutional investors, non-euro area investors, or the COVID-19 episode. |
| Keywords: | geographic shareholder dispersion, mutual-fund flow risk, mutual fund fragility, cross-border funds |
| JEL: | G23 G11 G17 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1440&r=eec |
| By: | Peter Bofinger |
| Abstract: | The study discusses the distribution of roles between monetary and fiscal policy in stabilising the price level. It questions the view that price level stabilisation should be the sole responsibility of central banks. It argues that there is a case for national governments also being responsible for price stability. The main results are the following: In the case of demand shocks, fiscal policy can react in a more timely and targeted manner than monetary policy. In the case of supply shocks, fiscal policy can shift the Phillips curve by varying indirect taxes, with price brakes and income policies. This is an advantage over monetary policy, which can only influence inflation indirectly by shifting the IS curve. In the recent energy crisis, the effects of this "unconventional fiscal policy" have been assessed quite positively. The case for a price stability mandate for national fiscal policy is particularly strong in the euro area. In the case of national supply and demand shocks in individual countries, the ECB can only provide an insufficient compensation, and its reaction has counterproductive effects in the rest of the monetary union. E.g., with a national price stability mandate, between 2014 and 2016, Germany would have been obliged to stimulate its economies, thereby supporting the ECB's fight against deflation. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:92-2024&r=eec |
| By: | Irene Monasterolo (Utrecht University and SUERF.); Antonia Pacelli (Toulouse School of Economics and INRAE); Marco Pagano (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, EIEF, and CEPR.); Carmine Russo (University of Naples Federico II) |
| Abstract: | The European Union faces a large climate investment gap. To fill it, we propose the joint issuance of EU climate bonds. These bonds would be funded by the sale of emission allowances, traded on the EU Emissions Trading System and extended to cover all sectors. Access to the resulting funds would be conditional on countries’ performance on the implementation of climate investments. EU climate bonds would meet global demand for a safe and liquid asset, while increasing the speed and efficiency of EU climate investing, its resilience to sovereign crises, and the greening of investors’ portfolios and monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | climate finance, green investment, EU safe asset, emission allowances, ETS. |
| JEL: | D62 E61 H23 H27 P18 Q51 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:702&r=eec |
| By: | Nagengast, Arne (Deutsche Bundesbank); Rios-Avila, Fernando (Levy Economics Institute); Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | We use heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences (DiD) methods to evaluate the impact of membership in the European Union (EU) Single Market on international trade. On the policy front, we provide evidence that: (i) On average, the EU has been very effective in promoting trade among its member states; (ii) The trade effects of the EU have been long-lasting, but heterogeneous across EU cohorts; and (iii) While the EU has benefited both `old' and `new' members, the increase in the exports from the `old' members to the `new' joiners has been disproportionately larger. From a methods and practical perspective, the contribution of this paper is to introduce a new, fast, and flexible estimation command that combines leading estimation techniques from the gravity literature with recent methods from the heterogeneity-robust DiD literature. |
| Keywords: | EU membership; Staggered Difference-in-Differences; Gravity Model; Estimation Command |
| JEL: | C13 C23 F10 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2024_005&r=eec |
| By: | Denisa M. Sologon; Karina Doorley; Cathal O’Donoghue |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the gender-specific distributional impact of the recent cost-of-living crisis in six European countries using the Household Budget Survey to assess the degree of regressivity (affecting lower income households more) or progessivity (affecting higher income households more) of inflation experienced by households between April 2021 and July 2023. Despite a growing literature on the distributional impact of inflation, there is limited evidence on gender differentials. We innovate by applying distributional measures and a decomposition method adapted from the taxation literature extended with a gender dimension to assess gender differences in inflation regressivity or progressivity, isolate the average inflation rate from the inflation structure effect and identify the drivers of regressivity/progressivity by broad commodity groups (food, heating/electricity, motor fuels, other goods and services). The findings highlight the greater regressive inflation faced by female-headed households compared to men in middle-income countries like Portugal, Poland and Hungary and high-income countries like Ireland. In Germany overall inflation has a neutral impact on women, whereas Finland stands out with a progressive inflation, more pronounced for female-headed households. Consistent across countries, the burden of food and heating/electricity inflation is disproportionately borne by low-income households. Heating/electricity inflation has a larger regressive contribution to overall inflation for female-headed households in all countries, whereas for food this holds only in Poland and Hungary. The findings highlight the need for targeted policies to address potential inequalities arising from differential consumption patterns and protect the most vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | distributional effect and gender; inflation and gender; regressive inflation; progressive inflation |
| JEL: | D31 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2024-02&r=eec |
| By: | Marcus How; Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Tamás Szemlér; Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Special Issue 20 Years of EU Enlargement 20 Years of EU membership Key economic aspects and outlooks in EU-CEE by Tamás Szemlér Accession to the European Union in 2004 was a long-awaited historical event for eight Central and East European countries. After 20 years of membership, one can say that some expectations related to the economic benefits of membership have come true, but some others have not. Beyond a positive overall economic balance, the performance of the individual countries has not been uniform. For example, there are differences in terms of the pace of catching up as well as regarding membership in the euro area. In addition, political conflicts during recent crises have made the divisions in the region even more tangible. Looking ahead what are the main economic challenges and opportunities for the EU-CEE countries? by Zuzana Zavarská EU-CEE’s development path following EU accession is a success story that should not be downplayed. Yet, 20 years on, it is time for these countries to formulate a new strategy for their economic model. With the right set of industrial policies, EU-CEE can become a more strategic player in EU value chains, increase its resilience to external shocks, close the remaining gaps with Western Europe and, ultimately, enhance the well-being of its populations. Welfare convergence or social dispersion? The socio-demographic developments of the EU CEE countries by Sebastian Leitner and Maryna Tverdostup Following their accession to the EU, the CEE countries have continued to make up ground in economic terms. However, in terms of overall welfare, the pace of their catching up has been mixed and less rosy in some areas. An important factor behind this has been demographic developments that were strongly driven by migration flows, resulting in sharply falling unemployment and rising labour shortages. Still, some of the countries (e.g. the Baltic states, Bulgaria and Romania) feature considerably higher levels of relative poverty and lower levels of public expenditures in comparison to the EU average. Testing the limits The politics of EU membership in EU-CEE by Marcus How Surveys indicate that local populations in EU-CEE remain broadly positive about EU membership. Apathy is high, however, and trust in national institutions remains low. Combined with ‘convergence fatigue’, these factors have created favourable conditions for populist forces, which have degraded the quality of institutions in numerous states. These forces are qualified in their Euroscepticism in that they favour EU membership for pragmatic reasons. Nevertheless, such attitudes will prove unsustainable in the long term, as the case of Hungary is now demonstrating. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | EU membership, economic convergence, foreign trade, EU financial support, accession to euro area, regional disparities, green transition, automation and digitalisation, industrial policy, demography, migration, labour markets, welfare models, opinion polls, institutional quality |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2024-04&r=eec |
| By: | Beck, Günter W.; Carstensen, Kai; Menz, Jan-Oliver; Schnorrenberger, Richard; Wieland, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | We study how millions of granular and weekly household scanner data combined with machine learning can help to improve the real-time nowcast of German inflation. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of inflation: individual products, product groups, and headline inflation. At the individual product level, we construct a large set of weekly scanner-based price indices that closely match their official counterparts, such as butter and coffee beans. Within a mixed-frequency setup, these indices significantly improve inflation nowcasts already after the first seven days of a month. For nowcasting product groups such as processed and unprocessed food, we apply shrinkage estimators to exploit the large set of scanner-based price indices, resulting in substantial predictive gains over autoregressive time series models. Finally, by adding high-frequency information on energy and travel services, we construct competitive nowcasting models for headline inflation that are on par with, or even outperform, survey-based inflation expectations. JEL Classification: E31, C55, E37, C53 |
| Keywords: | inflation nowcasting, machine learning methods, mixed-frequency modeling, scanner price data |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242930&r=eec |
| By: | Helgeson, Broghan (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | The paper at hand offers a quantitative assessment of the transformation of the European energy system in achieving the goal of the European Commission of carbon neutrality in Europe by 2050. In doing so, the investment and dispatch optimization model DIMENSION is extended to comprise a greater number of sectors and technologies as well as endogeneous links between energy supply and demand for 28 countries in Europe up to 2050. The model is applied to examine the costminimal decarbonization pathway for two cenarios with varying spatial boundaries of the optimization, namely the Green Island Europe and Green Importer Europe scenarios: Whereas the consumption of green hydrogen and/or synthetic fuels in the Green Island Europe scenario requires an investment in the necessary power-to-x production and electricity generating capacities within Europe, the Green Importer Europe scenario allows for such zero-carbon and carbon-neutral fuels to be available for purchase from outside of Europe. Results of the cost minimization in both scenarios show that the model chooses to most rapidly decarbonize the electricity sector, with capacities of wind and solar electricity generation in Europe tripling between 2019 and 2030. Simultaneously, a 500 TWhel increase in electricity demand is observed as 77% of heat generation in Europe is supplied by electricity-consuming heating technologies in 2030. By 2050, flexibility options such as electricity storage, demand-side management and electric vehicles expand their market presence, while the more hard-to-abate sectors such as transport and industry experience a rapid shift from fossil fuels to biofuels as well as to green hydrogen. As a result, the cross-sectional European CO2 shadow price rises to 225 €/CO2 in 2040 and to 559 €/tCO2 in 2050. In the Green Island Europe scenario, carbon neutrality in an energy-independent Europe leads to an overall increase in electricity consumption in Europe of over 4000 TWhel between 2019 and 2050. Yet the long-term results of the two scenarios diverge as the emergence of a demand for green hydrogen leads to a diversification of Europe’s hydrogen supply, with approximately 300 TWhth of green hydrogen (19% of total consumption) imported from outside of Europe in 2050. In turn, the 250 TWhth decrease in domestic green hydrogen production leads to a ramping down of electrolysis systems in the Green Importer Europe scenario, creating an opportunity for other flexibility options. Finally, the difference in average consumer and producer surplus as well average total welfare between the scenarios is examined for players in the European electricity and green hydrogen markets. |
| Keywords: | Energy system modeling; Flexibility options; Electricity sector; Power-to-X; Green hydrogen; Synthetic fuels; Green fuels; Sector coupling; Decarbonization; Carbon neutrality; Energy independence; Security of supply; Welfare analysis |
| JEL: | C61 C68 D61 N70 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2024_002&r=eec |
| By: | Jan Behringer (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Lena Draeger (Leibniz University Hannover (LUH)); Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Sebastian Gechert (Chemnitz University of Technology (TUC)) |
| Abstract: | We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio and favor a tighter German debt brake. In an information treatment experiment, people consider public debt to be a more (less) severe problem once they learn the actual debt-to-GDP or interest-to-tax-revenue ratio is higher (lower) than their estimate. However, the treatment effects partly vanish when anchoring respondents' beliefs with historical public debt figures. We find no treatment effects on attitudes towards the debt brake. |
| Keywords: | public debt, fiscal rules, information treatment, expectations |
| JEL: | D83 E60 H31 H60 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:223-2024&r=eec |
| By: | OECD; Orsetta Causa; Maxime Nguyen; Emilia Soldani |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel classification of high-polluting occupations for a large sample of European countries. Unlike previous efforts in the literature, the classification exploits country-level data on air polluting emission intensity by industry. The country-level data allows to capture important cross-country differences, due to differences in technology and in production focus. Applying the new classification to European Labour Force Survey data shows that, on average across the countries covered, about 4% of workers are employed in high-polluting jobs, ranging from 9% in Czechia and the Slovak Republic to around 2% in Austria. These shares do not exhibit any clear decreasing trend over the past decade. High-polluting jobs are unequally distributed, being over-represented among men, workers with lower and medium educational attainment and those living in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | air polluting emissions, classification, climate change, green transition, high-polluting jobs, labour markets |
| JEL: | J21 Q51 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1795-en&r=eec |
| By: | Bossong, Raphael (Ed.); von Ondarza, Nicolai (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | In den letzten 15 Jahren hat die EU in vielfachen Krisen ihre Widerstandsfähigkeit bewiesen und wichtige politische Einigungen erzielt, die teilweise über den Rahmen des Lissabon-Vertrags hinausweisen. Dabei spielten - im Sinne eines "flexiblen Krisenfunktionalismus" - exekutive Institutionen, insbesondere der Europäische Rat und die EU-Kommission, eine führende Rolle. Währenddessen wurden programmatische Großprojekte der EU, vor allem in der Klima- und Cyberpolitik, gemäß dem ordentlichen Gesetzgebungsverfahren vorangetrieben. Dies zeigt, dass das traditionelle, eher technokratische Integrationsmodell weiterhin Bestand hat. In zehn Einzelbeiträgen zu zentralen politischen Projekten der EU sowie zwei Querschnittsanalysen wird der gegenwärtige Stand der Integration ausgelotet und aufgezeigt, wie den kommenden Herausforderungen begegnet werden könnte oder müsste. Die Entscheidungsfindung in der EU bleibt stark konsensorientiert. Dennoch ist die EU-Politik mit einem wachsenden Maß an Polarisation konfrontiert, insbesondere da, wo Ressourcen mobilisiert und umverteilt werden sollen oder weitreichende exekutive Entscheidungen anstehen. Das derzeitige Rüstzeug der EU reicht für die anstehenden Handlungserfordernisse nicht aus. Zu den vorrangig zu lösenden Aufgaben zählen: Förderung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit, ambitionierte Reformen der Erweiterungspolitik, Stärkung von Kompetenzen und Entscheidungsverfahren sowie Ausgleich des anhaltenden Demokratiedefizits der EU. Jenseits von einzelnen pragmatischen Integrationsschritten im Zuge dauerhaften Krisenmanagements gilt es deshalb, die Legitimität der EU umfassender auszubauen. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union (EU), Lissabon-Vertrag, Europäischer Rat, EU-Kommission, EU-Parlament, Klimapolitik, Cyberpolitik, Förderung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit, Erweiterungspolitik, Legitimität |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:290397&r=eec |
| By: | OECD; Orsetta Causa; Maxime Nguyen; Emilia Soldani |
| Abstract: | Greening the economy entails jobs contracting in “high-polluting” economic activities and expanding in environment-friendly activities. Minimizing the corresponding transition costs is crucial to accelerate decarbonisation and reduce displacement costs for affected workers. Using individual-level labour force data for a large sample of European countries, this paper finds that the shares of green and high-polluting jobs remained approximately stable between 2009 and 2019, hinting at a slow or yet-to-come green transition in labour markets. Green and high-polluting jobs are unequally distributed across socioeconomic groups: women are under-represented in both green and high-polluting jobs, while green jobs are associated with higher educational attainment, and high-polluting jobs with lower educational attainment. Equally important from a policy perspective, the results show that high-polluting jobs are concentrated in rural areas. These results are confirmed by analyzing labour market transitions: for instance, while women are more likely to transition from study to job, they are significantly less likely to get a green job. Overall, the results suggest that well designed and targeted policies are needed to support efficient and inclusive labour market transitions in the greening economy: to minimize scarring effects for displaced workers, help individuals’ upskilling and reskilling, and support the matching between workers and jobs in higher demand. |
| Keywords: | green transition, labour markets, policy analysis |
| JEL: | H23 I3 Q41 Q48 H12 |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1796-en&r=eec |