|
on European Economics |
Issue of 2024‒04‒01
27 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
By: | Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Kolb, Benedikt |
Abstract: | We examine the fiscal footprint of macroprudential policy in euro area countries arising through the bond market channel (Reis, 2021). Using local projections, we estimate impulse responses of the fiscal balance to an unexpected tightening in macroprudential capital regulation. Our findings suggest a dichotomy between country groups. In peripheral countries, the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratio deteriorates after a restrictive capital-based macroprudential policy shock. Since banks are important investors in domestic government debt, the shift in the public budget toward higher borrowing after the innovation might pose a threat to financial stability to the extent that sovereign risk increases. By contrast, in core countries, the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratio barely reacts to a sudden tightening in capital regulation. |
Keywords: | Fiscal footprint, macroprudential capital regulation, sovereign-bank nexus, local projections |
JEL: | C33 G28 H63 K33 |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:284407&r=eec |
By: | Jens H. E. Christensen; Sarah Mouabbi |
Abstract: | The so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest, widely known as r*t, is a key variable used to judge the stance of monetary policy. We offer a novel euro-area estimate based on a dynamic term structure model estimated directly on the prices of bonds with cash flows indexed to the euro-area harmonized index of consumer prices with adjustments for bond-specific risk and real term premia. Despite a recent increase, our estimate indicates that the natural rate in the euro area has fallen about 2 percentage points on net since 2002 and remains negative at the end of our sample. We also devise a related measure of the stance of monetary policy, which suggests that monetary policy in the euro area was not accommodative at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. |
Keywords: | affine arbitrage-free term structure model; financial markets; frictions; monetary policy; rstar; covid19 |
JEL: | C32 E43 E52 G12 |
Date: | 2024–03–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97927&r=eec |
By: | Manish K. Singh (Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi.); Marta Gómez-Puig (Department of Economics & Riskcenter, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (Complutense Institute for Economic Analysis, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28223 Madrid, Spain. T: +34-913 942 342.) |
Abstract: | The choice of the optimal sovereign risk indicator is crucial in the context of the euro area (EA) countries, which faced a fierce sovereign debt crisis. Traditional indicators of sovereign risk (CDS, bond yields, and credit rating) do not take into consideration the priority structure of creditors and are highly influenced by market sentiment. We propose a new indicator (DtD) to quantify sovereign risk for eleven EA countries over the period 2004Q1-2019Q4. Using contingent claims’ methodology, DtD incorporates the seniority structure of creditors in an existing theoretical model. Our results suggest that (1) DtD is a leading indicator of sovereign risk and (2) adding information from the public sector’s balance sheet structure to market information, helps better incorporate macroeconomic fundamentals in the sovereign risk measure, overcoming some of the weaknesses documented in the traditional indicators. |
Keywords: | Sovereign default risk, Euro area countries, Contingent claims, Distance-to- default. JEL classification: E62, H3, C11. |
Date: | 2024–02 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202403&r=eec |
By: | Fricke, Daniel; Greppmair, Stefan; Paludkiewicz, Karol |
Abstract: | We show that the transmission of the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent monetary policy tightening differs across banks depending on their level of excess reserves. Specifically, the net worth of reserve-rich banks may display a boost when the interest rate paid on reserves increases strongly. Focusing on the ECB's 2022 rate hiking cycle, we show that reserve-rich banks' credit supply is less sensitive to the monetary policy tightening compared to other banks. The effect varies in the cross-section of both banks and firms. The results are binding at the firm level, indicating the presence of real effects. |
Keywords: | interest rates, bank lending, excess liquidity, monetary policy |
JEL: | E43 E44 E52 G21 |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:284406&r=eec |
By: | von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Rottner, Elisa; Richter, Philipp M. |
Abstract: | Relative prices determine competitiveness of different locations. In this paper, we focus on the role of regulatory differences between Germany and other EU countries which affect the shadow price of carbon emissions. We calibrate a Melitz-type model, extended by firms' emissions and abatement decisions using data on aggregate output, trade and emissions. The parameter estimates are estimated from the German Manufacturing Census. The quantitative model allows us to recover a measure of how regulatory stringency evolved in the EU and Germany in terms of an implicit carbon price paid on emissions. This price reflects energy and carbon prices in addition to command-and-control measures and decreased from 2005 to 2019 in most sectors - both in Germany and other EU countries. The trend is more pronounced in Germany than in the rest of the EU. In counterfactual analyses, we show that this intra-EU difference has substantially increased German industrial emissions. Had the EU experienced the same decrease in implicit carbon prices as Germany, German emissions would have been substantially lower. Germany has increasingly become a pollution haven |
Keywords: | Carbon emissions, Climate Policy, Melitz model, Manufacturing |
JEL: | F18 H23 L60 Q56 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:283591&r=eec |
By: | Mandler, Martin; Scharnagl, Michael |
Abstract: | We update the wavelet-based analysis of the relationship between money growth and inflation in the euro area in Mandler and Scharnagl (2014). The relationship between headline M3 growth and inflation at low frequencies has weakened over the 1990s. However, we find evidence of stable comovement between money growth adjusted by real GDP growth and consumer price inflation for cycles of 24 years and longer duration. The long-run fluctuations of adjusted money growth and inflation move roughly about 1:1 and are contemporaneous, i.e. there is no lead of money growth. Our analysis of cycles in both variables of 24 years and longer provides information on the relationship between the variables from the late 1980s to the early 2000s. |
Keywords: | money growth, inflation, euro area, wavelet analysis |
JEL: | C30 E31 E40 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:283345&r=eec |
By: | Evangelos Charalambakis; Federica Teppa; Athanasios Tsiortas |
Abstract: | Abstract This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans. We also find that demographic, economic factors, perceptions and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and the credit grant. |
Keywords: | Consumer finance; Liquidity constraints; Credit applications; Consumer Expectations Survey |
JEL: | C23 D12 D14 G51 |
Date: | 2024–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:807&r=eec |
By: | Laura Nurski; Nina Ruer |
Abstract: | In this paper, we take a dual approach to assess the impact of GenAI on the European labour market. |
Date: | 2024–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_9794&r=eec |
By: | Michael Christl (Universidad Loyola Andalucia); Silvia De Poli (Universidad Complutense de Madrid); Monika Köppl-Turyna (ECO Austria) |
Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relation between economic growth, inequality and redistribution. In a cross-country setting for 25 EU countries over the period between 2007 and 2019, we show that market-income inequality is related to higher growth in the short term. To estimate the impact of redistribution to low-income earners, we introduce a new measure, the so called net benefit share (NBS). Contrary to other findings, we show that this (targeted) redistribution to low-income earners (Q1 NBS) fosters growth in the short term, driven by the consumption and private investment channel. On the other hand, untargeted redistribution towards higher-income earners reduces growth. |
Keywords: | growth, redistribution, inequality, European Union |
JEL: | H23 O47 D63 |
Date: | 2024–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-668&r=eec |
By: | Christophe J. GODLEWSKI (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Malgorzata OLSZAK (Wydzial Zarzadzania, Uniwersytet Warszawski) |
Abstract: | We analyze the impact of macroprudential policies on corporate loans. We utilize a dataset of over 4, 800 syndicated loans from 1999-2017, matched with detailed macroprudential policy data from the European Central Bank. We investigate how overall policy stance and specific tools influence key loan terms at origination, including the amount, maturity, collateral, and covenants. Drawing upon hypotheses related to credit growth, risk-taking, and efficiency transmission channels, we show that a tighter macroprudential policy leads to an increase in loan amounts and collateralization. These effects are most prominent for tools that tighten lending standards and capital buffers, particularly in domestic credit markets. Additionally, we provide insights into the influence of loan, borrower, and lender characteristics on the impact of macroprudential policy on loan terms. Our findings offer novel empirical evidence of macroprudential transmission occurring through risk-shifting and compensating behaviors in private debt markets. |
Keywords: | macroprudential policy, bank loans, financial contracting, Europe |
JEL: | G21 G28 G32 |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2024-01&r=eec |
By: | Bohne, Albrecht; Koumpias, Antonios M.; Tassi, Annalisa |
Abstract: | This paper explores the connection between the proliferation of cashless, or e-money, payments and value-added tax (VAT) compliance. We present both visual and descriptive evidence that illustrates a negative correlation between e-money use and VAT evasion, proxied by the VAT compliance gap for countries in the European Union, from 2001 until 2021. We find that increased e-money usage by 100 percentage points (pp) is associated with a reduction in the VAT gap of 0.3pp or 1.92% of the aggregate VAT compliance gap over time. Moreover, we contribute a novel estimate of the causal impact of cashless payments on VAT evasion during the COVID-19 public health emergency. We identify a link between mobility restrictions in the European Union and reductions in VAT compliance gaps, facilitated by changes in payment norms. An estimated rise of 1pp or 5.51% in e-money use results in an 11.9% reduction in the VAT compliance gap. Our findings suggest that changes in transaction payment behavior such as the adoption of cashless payments may yield significantly more tax revenues by curbing non-compliance. Policies aimed at promoting e-money usage and limiting cash circulation are relevant steps forward in this direction. |
Keywords: | Tax evasion, VAT gap, cashless payments, e-money, mobility restrictions, COVID-19 pandemic |
JEL: | H26 K42 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:283581&r=eec |
By: | Zsolt Darvas; Lennard Welslau; Jeromin Zettelmeyer |
Abstract: | This paper proposes an approach for quantifying the impact of public investments and reforms on debt sustainability |
Date: | 2024–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_9803&r=eec |
By: | J.P. Chaves; R. Cossent; T. Gómez San Román; P. Linares; M. Rivier |
Keywords: | Electricity market, energy transition, renewables |
JEL: | Q41 L51 L94 |
Date: | 2023–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2305&r=eec |
By: | Paul Dermine; Larch Martin |
Date: | 2023–09–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/368518&r=eec |
By: | Sologon, Denisa Maria (LISER (CEPS/INSTEAD)); Doorley, Karina (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); O'Donoghue, Cathal (National University of Ireland, Galway); Peluso, Eugenio (University of Luxembourg) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the gendered effects of the cost-of-living crisis on households across six European countries using household consumption data linked to price changes between April 2021 and July 2023. It examines how different consumption patterns between male- and female-headed households influence their exposure to inflation. Exploring the full distribution of inflation rates, employing quantile regressions and a decomposition approach, this research uncovers gender-specific disparities in inflation exposure and inequality. Going beyond the immediate economic index adjustments, it also evaluates the welfare changes attributable to inflation by estimate a behaviourally-adjusted welfare effect of the cost-of-living crisis. Building on the foundational Atkinson welfare measure, this paper innovates by decomposing the change in welfare into equity and efficiency components, differentially for male- and female-headed households. This contribution enriches the consumption literature by providing a detailed gendered analysis of inflation's distributional and welfare effects, aiding policymakers in addressing the nuanced challenges of the cost-of-living crisis. |
Keywords: | inflation and gender, inflation inequality and gender, distributional effect and gender, welfare effect and gender |
JEL: | D12 D31 D60 E31 I30 J16 |
Date: | 2024–02 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16820&r=eec |
By: | Eraslan, Sercan; Reif, Magnus |
Abstract: | This paper introduces a weekly GDP indicator to track real economic activity in Germany in real-time. We use a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model with quarterly, monthly, and weekly indicators and obtain the weekly GDP indicator as the weighted common component of the mixed-frequency dataset. Our indicator is able to approximate latent week-on-week growth of German GDP. In addition, it enables computing a weekly GDP series in levels, which is also of great interest for central bankers, policy makers, and practitioners interested in analysing the current state of the economy in a timely manner. Finally, we demonstrate the benefits of our indicator for high-frequency tracking of the German economy using a recursive nowcasting exercise. |
Keywords: | Business cycle, dynamic factor model, economic indicator |
JEL: | C38 C43 E32 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:283352&r=eec |
By: | Pala, Melissa |
Abstract: | This paper provides evidence of a highly fragmented European interbank market that is tightened during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the interbank market was under stress. Using a unique dataset of unsecured, overnight interbank loans at the transactional level allows me to apply advanced panel methods. Furthermore, this paper shows liquidity hoarding during the pandemic and relationship lending as a German phenomenon. In addition, there is evidence that borrowers who have to pay higher rates in the market are more likely to participate in tender auctions and that the COVID-19 pandemic had the greatest impact on smaller interbank borrowers. |
Keywords: | nterbank Market, Relationship Lending, Liquidity, COVID-19, Monetary Policy |
JEL: | G01 G15 G18 G21 D85 |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:284408&r=eec |
By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Klaus Friesenbichler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Medical University of Vienna, Complexity Science Hub Vienna) |
Abstract: | ASCII proposes a revision of the EU directive on supply chain due diligence, the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive. The directive is based on European values and is to be welcomed. ASCII suggests that the Directive should focus, where possible, on direct monitoring of suppliers rather than on bilateral relationships between buyers and sellers. The directive should be amended to allow the use of negative and positive lists of countries and suppliers. Such lists contain foreign suppliers that are prohibited (negative lists) or authorised (positive lists) to participate in EU supply chains. When contracting with companies on positive lists, EU importers do not have to carry out due diligence on the companies. They are prohibited from doing business with companies on negative lists. The Directive will continue to apply to non-listed companies. This reduces the overall cost of the regulation for EU importers, reduces the likelihood of unwanted side-effects and makes the instrument more effective, as non-compliance by a foreign supplier leads to delisting throughout the EU, not just with a single buyer. It would also increaseeffectiveness by reducing legal uncertainty and extending the scope of the regulation beyond EU-based production networks. |
Date: | 2023–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:1&r=eec |
By: | Clemens Fuest; Andrei Marcu; Michael Mehling |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_48&r=eec |
By: | Salles, Fernanda Cimini; Bayerlein, Michael; Villarreal, Pedro A.; Schwebel, Franziska |
Abstract: | The European Union's (EU) Global Health Strategy calls for open and strategic autonomy in the field of pharmaceuticals, which would lead to the redesign of EU global supply and value chains as well as trade relations. As the EU and Germany are seeking to diversify their trade partners, the Mercosur countries offer latent potential. Mercosur is the name of the South American trade bloc consisting of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, with Venezuela's membership currently suspended. The associate states of the bloc are Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana and Suriname. Bolivia is currently awaiting final approval to become a full member of the bloc. |
Keywords: | pharmaceutical supply chains, Mercosur countries, EU's Global Health Strategy, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Suriname, Bolivia, free trade agreement (FTA), European Medicines Agency (EMA), Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) |
Date: | 2024 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:284705&r=eec |
By: | Peiffer-Smadja, Océane; Mitra, Alessio; Ravet, Julien; Di Girolamo, Valentina |
Abstract: | This paper uses multiple linear and fractional probit regressions to assess the importance of regional research capacities and assets, as well as intrinsic characteristics of the regions in defining success in the European R&I Framework Programme. We find that quality of research outputs matters more than quantity, particularly in projects targeting societal challenges, while quality of patenting activity matters more than quantity, particularly in projects targeting industrial objectives. Less-developed regions benefit from improved institutions, while advanced regions gain from increased R&D and human resources investments. We provide recommendations on how regions can improve their capacity to participate in the EU FP for R&I. |
Keywords: | European R&I Framework Programme, Regional innovation |
JEL: | O38 R58 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:283908&r=eec |
By: | Michael G. Pollitt |
Keywords: | Energy crisis, single market in energy, wartime |
JEL: | L94 L95 |
Date: | 2023–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2317&r=eec |
By: | Birgit Meyer (WIFO) |
Abstract: | Mit der Initiative zur Richtlinie über die Sorgfaltspflicht von Unternehmen im Hinblick auf Nachhaltigkeit (Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive – CSDDD) hat die EU einen wichtigen Schritt unternommen, um verantwortungsbewusstes Handeln von Unternehmen über die Grenzen der EU hinaus zu fördern. Die in der CSDDD vorgesehenen Sorgfaltspflichten werden Kosten und Nutzen für Unternehmen in der EU, für Unternehmen außerhalb der EU mit erheblichen Umsätzen im EU-Binnenmarkt sowie für deren Zulieferer mit sich bringen. Dieser Research Brief fokussiert auf die möglichen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte der Richtlinie. Modellsimulationen der CSDDD im Rahmen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen zum einen, dass Wohlfahrtsverluste durch den Rückzug von EU-Unternehmen aus Ländern mit hohem Risiko von Menschenrechtsverletzungen möglich sind. Zum anderen bietet die CSDDD die Chance, Umwelt- und Menschenrechtsstandards weltweit zu stärken und das reale Einkommen global zu steigern. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen somit die Bedeutung einer kooperativen Herangehensweise zur Förderung nachhaltiger Unternehmensführung entlang globaler Wertschöpfungsketten. |
Date: | 2024–03–15 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2024:i:4&r=eec |
By: | Di Girolamo, Valentina; Mitra, Alessio; Ravet, Julien; Peiffer-Smadja, Océane; Balland, Pierre-Alexandre |
Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between knowledge complexity and countries' technological dependency, with a focus on the EU's position vis-à-vis other major economies. Using patent data, we calculate the knowledge complexity index at technological level for a set of countries over the period 1990-2020 to assess the EU's technological capabilities. Our findings show that the EU's overall position has progressively worsened vis-à-vis the US, China, Japan, and South Korea over the last three decades, that the EU's technological base is more diversified than that of other major economies, but is disproportionally more specialised in less complex technologies than its counterparts. Finally, the EU is particularly dependent on just a few countries in most complex technologies. |
Keywords: | Complex technologies, Technological dependencies, Strategic autonomy, Relatedness |
JEL: | O11 O33 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:283907&r=eec |
By: | Nebojša Vukadinović (IRM - Institut de Recherche Montesquieu - UB - Université de Bordeaux, Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
Abstract: | Since the end of communism in the 1990s, the new currencies have had a triple function in the Balkans, particularly in the Yugoslav area. When they were first adopted, the idea was that they should primarily serve an economic function. But their symbolic and political functions must not be overlooked. After the disintegration of Yugoslavia, adopting new currencies enabled the new governments to pursue an independent monetary policy. |
Keywords: | Eurozone, Monetary policies, Europe, Balkans |
Date: | 2024–02 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04469808&r=eec |
By: | Elisabeth Christen |
Abstract: | In Ergänzung zum reformierten EU-Emissionshandelssystem stellt der EU-Grenzausgleich einen zentralen Baustein dar, um internationale Unterschiede in den Klimaambitionen und in der Bepreisung von CO2-Emissionen auszugleichen und eine klimaneutrale EU bis 2050 zu erreichen. Mit dem Instrument setzt sich die EU zum Ziel, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit europäischer Produzenten trotz verschärfter EU-Klimaziele und steigender CO2-Kosten zu sichern und das Risiko von Carbon Leakage, die Verlagerung von Emissionen in Länder mit weniger strengen Emissionsvorschriften, zu vermindern. Die Modellsimulationen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen, dass ein klimapolitischer Alleingang der EU nur ein sehr begrenztes Potenzial zur Verringerung der globalen Emissionen aufweist und moderate Wohlstandseinbußen mit sich bringt. Im Gegensatz dazu erzielt eine klimapolitische Kooperation die größten globalen Emissionsminderungen und schafft durch Vermeidung von Klimafolgekosten Wohlfahrtsgewinne. Ein gemeinsamer Klimaklub der EU mit den USA, dem Vereinigten Königreich, Kanada und Japan senkt die globalen Emissionen um 14, 8%, dies entspricht einer jährlichen Reduzierung der CO2-Emissionen um 5, 46 Mrd. t. |
Date: | 2024–02–28 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2024:i:2&r=eec |
By: | Alexandru Petrea (Alexandru cel Bun Military Academy, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova) |
Abstract: | The European Union has set ambitious targets for renewable energy, aiming to increase the percentage share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption and promote its use in transportation and heating sectors. Romania, having a significant potential in renewable energy, especially wind and solar energy, can play an important role in achieving these goals. The exploitation of abundant natural resources and the development of production capacities in wind, solar and hydropower can contribute to the transition to a cleaner and more sustainable energy system, bringing economic and environmental benefits to the country and contributing to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. |
Keywords: | Renewable Energy Source, Energy Transition, Energy Policies, Energy Efficiency, Climate Goals, Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments |
Date: | 2023–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0286&r=eec |