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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒03‒25
twenty-two papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Arce, Óscar; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Kornprobst, Antoine |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to provide a unified framework for analysing and comparing global inflation dynamics across the major world economic areas, including US, euro area, Canada, UK, and Japan. The paper makes four main contributions. First, it estimates the model using quarterly data from the euro area covering the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2023. Second, it conducts an empirical assessment of how euro area price inflation responds to various exogenous shocks. This includes evaluating how shock transmission evolved during the pandemic and comparing it with experience in the United States. Third, the model decomposes the drivers of wage growth and price inflation in the post-pandemic period. It emphasises the transmission channels and the respective roles of supply and demand forces that have contributed to the recent inflationary surge. Notably, it identifies the impact of labour market tightness, productivity, global supply chain disruptions and energy and food price shocks. Finally, the model generates conditional projections based on these exogenous shocks, enabling a more robust cross-check of inflation forecasts during times of significant global economic disturbances. JEL Classification: C5, E47, E52, E58, F4 |
| Keywords: | central banking, econometric modelling, forecasting and simulation, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024343&r=eec |
| By: | George Economides; Giota Koliousi; Natasha Miaouli; Apostolis Philippopoulos |
| Abstract: | We start by clarifying the role of the interest rate-growth rate differential in debt arithmetic with numerical examples for the Greek economy. In turn, building upon this popular approach to fiscal sustainability, which is based on the intertemporal government budget constraint only, we make a number of methodological points that question the quantitative usefulness of standard calculations. Among other things, we argue that a structural approach is needed and this reveals the necessity of fiscal rules according to which fiscal instruments systematically react to public debt imbalances. This naturally enables us to evaluate the EU's fiscal rules and to suggest simple and implementable alternatives. Throughout, we confront our arguments with data from the Euro Area. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, public debt dynamics, Euro Area |
| JEL: | E62 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:194&r=eec |
| By: | Bassi, Claudio; Grill, Michael; Mirza, Harun; O’Donnell, Charles; Wedow, Michael; Hermes, Felix |
| Abstract: | The introduction of the Securities Financing Transactions Regulation into EU law provides a unique opportunity to obtain an in-depth understanding of repo markets. Based on the transaction-level data reported under the regulation, this paper presents an overview and key facts about the euro area repo market. We start by providing a description of the dataset, including its regulatory background, as well as highlighting some of its advantages for financial stability analysis. We then go on to present three sets of findings that are highly relevant to financial stability and focus on the dimensions of the different market segments, counterparties, and collateral, including haircut practices. Finally, we outline how the data reported under the regulation can support the policy work of central banks and supervisory authorities. We demonstrate that these data can be used to make several important contributions to enhancing our understanding of the repo market from a financial stability perspective, ultimately assisting international efforts to increase repo market resilience. JEL Classification: G10, G18, G23 |
| Keywords: | financial stability, regulation, securities financing transactions |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024342&r=eec |
| By: | Margherita Bottero (Bank of Italy); Antonio M. Conti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We use a thick modelling approach to assess the transmission of the unprecedented ECB’s monetary policy hiking cycle, which started in July 2022, to the cost of credit to euro area and Italian non-financial corporations. We uncover two findings. First, the range of forecasts obtained via this approach is wide; simple projections based only on a common trend between reference and lending rates fall in the lower part of it. Second, borrower riskiness emerges in the current juncture as a key driver in explaining the evolution of lending rates, improving substantially forecasts’ accuracy. We also quantify the additional upward risks on lending rates that may stem from unexpected tensions related to sudden outflows of retail deposits and the reduction of the Eurosystem’s balance sheet. Finally, we assess the impact of an adverse credit supply shock on output and inflation dynamics using a Bayesian VAR. The overall results of the paper support the conclusion that a large amount of the effects of monetary tightening is still in the pipeline. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, bank lending channel, credit supply, thick modelling, VAR |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E32 E37 C32 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_810_23&r=eec |
| By: | Jiménez, Gabriel; Laeven, Luc; Martinez-Miera, David; Peydró, José-Luis |
| Abstract: | We show that public guaranteed loans (PGL) increase credit availability improving real effects, but private banks’ incentives imply that weaker banks shift riskier corporate loans to taxpayers. We exploit credit register data during the COVID-19 shock in Spain, and a stylized model guides the empirics. Unlike non-PGL, banks provide more PGL to riskier firms in which banks have higher pre-crisis shares of firm total credit. Importantly, these effects are stronger for weaker banks. Results using firm(-bank) fixed effects and loan volume versus price information suggest a credit supply-driven mechanism. Moreover, exploiting exogenous variation across similar firms with differing PGL access, we confirm these findings, and we additionally show that PGL increases banks’ overall lending and credit share, with positive effects for firm survival and investment. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G38, E62, H81 |
| Keywords: | banking, COVID-19, private incentives, public guarantees, risk-shifting |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242913&r=eec |
| By: | Marco Bernardini (Bank of Italy); Alessandro Lin (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We compare the path of the ECB policy rate (deposit facility rate) expected by financial market analysts with simple monetary policy rules based on their own expectations regarding inflation and the economic activity. To this end, we adopt a thick-modelling approach to account for uncertainty surrounding the exact parametrization of the rule according to analysts. We show that, since the ECB monetary policy moved away from the effective lower bound (ELB) and stopped providing explicit forward guidance on the future path of the policy rate, policy rate expectations have become largely aligned with those implied by the rules. We also document three additional findings. First, growing perceptions of downward demand-side risks since spring 2023 have been associated with an adjustment of analysts’ rate expectations to slightly-below rule-implied rates. Second, the significant and continuous upward revisions of expected ECB rates observed during the 2022-23 rate hiking cycle have mainly resulted from upward revisions of expected inflation and expectations of a higher long-run policy rate. Third, analysts’ rate expectations appear to be shaped more by expectations regarding core inflation rather than those of headline inflation. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy rules, expectations, ECB's survey of monetary analysts, effective lower bound. |
| JEL: | E52 E40 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_815_23&r=eec |
| By: | Bunel, Simon; Bijnens, Gert; Botelho, Vasco; Falck, Elisabeth; Labhard, Vincent; Lamo, Ana; Röhe, Oke; Schroth, Joachim; Sellner, Richard; Strobel, Johannes; Anghel, Brindusa |
| Abstract: | The productivity-enhancing effects of digitalisation have generated increased interest in the promotion of digital technologies. This report provides different estimations for euro area countries of the impact of digital uptake on productivity at firm level, showing that the adoption of digital technologies could lead to an increase in firms’ productivity in the medium term. However, not all firms and sectors experience significant productivity gains from digital adoption, and not all digital technologies deliver significant productivity gains. The report highlights possible factors behind the low productivity benefits of digitalisation in euro area countries. For example, a lack of strong institutions and governance structures may help to explain why digital diffusion is slower than expected, why it is slower in some countries than others and why the expected productivity benefits from digitalisation have not been fully achieved by now. Furthermore, the report suggests that the full benefits of the digital revolution will be reaped by properly supplying skills to firms and also by investing in computerised information in low-productivity firms. JEL Classification: D24, E24, E22, J24, O33, O38, C67 |
| Keywords: | complementary investments, digitalisation, human capital, institutions, productivity |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024339&r=eec |
| By: | Fungáčová, Zuzana; Kerola, Eeva; Weill, Laurent |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether European banks adjust their loan prices and volumes of new lending in the months running up to major national elections. Using a unique dataset that draws on data covering some 250 banksin 19 Eurozone countries from 2010 to 2020 at monthly frequency, and that includes lending amounts and interest rates on new lending, we find that European banks increase loan rates for corporate and housing loans ahead of elections. This supports the view that loan pricing changes of European banks are driven by the electoral uncertainty inherent to the democratic election process. We find that the impact of elections is more pronounced for small banks, as well as obtain some evidence that elections affect the credit supply of banks. Our findings suggest that the occurrence of elections is affecting the behavior of European banks. |
| Keywords: | bank, lending, politics, elections, political uncertainty, loan pricing |
| JEL: | C51 E37 E44 F34 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:284402&r=eec |
| By: | Ruben Nicolas; Vitezslav Titl; Fredo Schotanus |
| Abstract: | To stimulate sustainable economic development and a greener economy, the European Commission co-funds public projects through the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF), which are among the largest such funds in the world worth approximately 100 billion euros annually. Since 2014, ESIF beneficiaries are incentivized to increase their use of green public procurement (GPP). In this paper, we study to what extent ESIF co-funding affects the uptake of GPP, making use of a rare dataset containing all public tender notices in the Czech Republic (2006-2019). We find a positive effect of ESIF on GPP and suggestive evidence that ESIF co-funding instigates selection behaviour by contracting authorities, that allocate their projects and resources to improve their chances of receiving co-funding. Exploiting two policy changes, we show that the ESIF’s effect on GPP is driven by financial incentives and not by ‘greener’ policy objectives. Finally, we study the effect of gained experience with GPP and find that it only increases contracting authorities’ later uptake of GPP to a limited extent. Mainstreaming of GPP calls for a more systemic approach that covers public procurement as a whole, for instance, by making GPP on a national level less voluntary for ESIF eligibility. |
| Keywords: | Green public procurement, EU, co-funding, climate policy, policy evaluation, sustainable development |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2310&r=eec |
| By: | Lalinsky, Tibor; Anyfantaki, Sofia; Benkovskis, Konstantins; Bergeaud, Antonin; Bun, Maurice; Bunel, Simon; Colciago, Andrea; De Mulder, Jan; Lopez, Beatriz Gonzalez; Jarvis, Valerie; Krasnopjorovs, Olegs; Lebastard, Laura; Lopez-Garcia, Paloma; Martins, Fernando; Meinen, Philipp; Meriküll, Jaanika; Parker, Miles; Serafini, Roberta; Szörfi, Béla; Vanhala, Juuso; Volk, Matjaz; Anastasatou, Marianthi; Fantino, Davide; Havel, Jiri; Khametshin, Dmitry; Kolaiti, Tetie; Raos, Josip; Šelebaj, Domagoj; Vaňko, Milan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the short-term and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for productivity in Europe. Aggregate and sectoral evidence is complemented by firm-level data-based findings obtained from a large micro-distributed exercise. Productivity trends during the COVID-19 pandemic differed from past trends. Labour productivity per hour worked temporarily increased, while productivity per employee declined across sectors given the widespread use of job retention schemes. The extensive margin of productivity growth was muted to some degree by the policy support granted to firms. Firm entries declined while firm exits increased much less than during previous crises. The pandemic had a significant impact on the intensive margin of productivity growth and led to a temporary drop in within-firm productivity per employee and increased reallocation. Job reallocation was productivity-enhancing but subdued compared to the Great Recession. As confirmed by a granular data analysis of the distribution of employment subsidies and loan guarantees and moratoria, job reallocation and also debt distribution and“zombie firm” prevalence were not significantly affected by the COVID-19 policy support. The pandemic and related lockdowns accelerated changes in consumer preferences and working habits with potential long-term effects. Generous government support muted the surge in unemployment and reduced permanent scarring effects. JEL Classification: D22, H25, J38, O47 |
| Keywords: | adjustment of firms, COVID-19, cross-country analysis, Europe, government support, labour productivity, micro-distributed exercise, productivity-enhancing reallocation |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024341&r=eec |
| By: | Allen N. Berger (University of South Carolina - Darla Moore School of Business); Simona Nistor (Babes-Bolyai University - Department of Finance); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Sergey Tsyplakov (University of South Carolina - Darla Moore School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Regulators more often bail out “Too-Big-To-Fail” banks than others, but this may not imply preferential treatment as commonly believed. Bailouts are complex dynamic processes involving more than one-time aid, so harsh treatments elsewhere in the process may counter the benefits of the higher likelihood of bailouts for these banks. Using bailout data from 22 European countries we find relatively harsh treatment for Globally-Systemically Important Banks. Regulators bail out G SIBs at later stages of financial deterioration, impose stronger restrictions, and withdraw aid after less significant recoveries. We explain these findings using cross-country data on supervisory powers, political connections, and national culture. |
| Keywords: | Banks, Bailouts, Too-Big-To-Fail, European Union, G-SIBs |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2411&r=eec |
| By: | Ronald B. Davies; Lena S. Specht |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Brexit on international student migration. In a structural gravity model, we estimate student migration between 69 countries for counterfactual scenarios in which the United Kingdom leaves the European Union one year before the referendum. This exercise reveals a decrease in exchange students studying in the UK of around 3.8% to 4.9%. While the number of non-EU students to the UK rises, a drop in EU student numbers drives this result. Similarly, 30% to 38% fewer UK students choose to study abroad. The estimated changes in international student stocks show that most other member countries lose international students and non-EU countries host more than without Brexit. Our findings provide evidence that there may be hidden costs to Brexit affecting global student exchanges that we have yet to see. |
| Keywords: | international migration, international students, gravity model, Brexit |
| JEL: | F22 I28 J11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10945&r=eec |
| By: | De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei |
| Abstract: | We study the evolving operating procedures used by the ECB since its creation. During the period up to 2015, bank reserves were scarce and the ECB, like other central banks, used a corridor system in which the money market rate could fluctuate within the bounds set by the lending and the deposit rates. With the start of Quantitative Easing (QE) the operating procedure evolved into a regime of reserve abundance. This regime has become problematic since the inflation surge forced the central banks to raise the policy rate. The result has been a massive transfer of central banks’ profits (and more) to the banks. We propose a two-tier system of reserve requirements that would only remunerate the reserves in excess of the minimum required. This would drastically reduce the giveaways to banks, allow the central banks to maintain their current operating procedures and make monetary policies more effective in fighting inflation. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122133&r=eec |
| By: | Maria Ludovica Drudi (Bank of Italy); Giulio Carlo Venturi (Imperial College) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of time-varying liquidity in the market for Italian government bonds and proposes a new methodology to estimate the liquidity premium implicit in bond prices. After adjusting for different maturities and coupon rates, we compute a yield spread between on- and off-the-run ten-year BTPs and regress this quantity on seven well-established liquidity metrics, explicitly distinguishing between current and future liquidity. We find that higher liquidity is indeed reflected in higher prices. Based on these results, we obtain a novel estimate of the liquidity premium, according to which the liquidity deterioration that occurred during the sovereign debt crisis lasted longer, but was of a smaller magnitude than that recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | liquidity, sovereign bonds, liquidity risk, market microstructure |
| JEL: | G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_795_23&r=eec |
| By: | Andrea Neri (Bank of Italy); Matteo Spuri (Bank of Italy); Francesco Vercelli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Several studies have combined survey data with macroeconomic aggregates from the national accounts to produce more reliable and timely statistics on the distribution of household income and wealth. This paper builds on the methodology developed by the ECB Expert Group on Distributional Financial Accounts, and proposes a novel approach for Italy to align survey-based estimates for total deposits with the corresponding macroeconomic figures, by using administrative records that are linked to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth and the aggregate information stemming from supervisory reporting data. The proposed method results in a slight decrease in the inequality of deposit distribution compared with survey data, and generally ensures a closer match with the aggregates from supervisory reporting data compared with the ESCB’s approach. |
| Keywords: | micro-macro linkage, deposits distribution, wealth distribution |
| JEL: | D14 D31 G51 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_802_23&r=eec |
| By: | Miguel Angel Casau; Daniel Herrero |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the deindustrialization process in Germany and Spain from 1995 to 2018. It is argued that the deindustrialization trajectories of each country are partially related to their growth models. An analysis in two steps is conducted. First, using the OECD input-output tables, a Hierarchical Structural Decomposition Analysis is applied, and the variation in the manufacturing value-added share is decomposed into five deindustrialization drivers: income, investment, relative prices, outsourcing and globalization. Second, building on the growth model perspective, an interpretative framework to analyze the evolution of the five abovementioned drivers is presented. The interaction between institutions, aggregate demand and the economic structure is explicitly considered in this framework. The comparative study of the German and Spanish cases and the distinction between the pre- and post-crisis periods illustrates the consequences of the distinct growth models (and the economic policies on which they are grounded) on structural change. The results suggest that the evolution of the deindustrialization drivers (and thus the manufacturing value-added share) in both countries is well-explained by their specific fiscal, labor, and industrial policies. |
| Keywords: | deindustrialization, growth models, input-output analysis, macroeconomic policies, industrial policy |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2024/06&r=eec |
| By: | Bijnens, Gert; Anyfantaki, Sofia; Colciago, Andrea; De Mulder, Jan; Falck, Elisabeth; Labhard, Vincent; Lopez-Garcia, Paloma; Meriküll, Jaanika; Parker, Miles; Röhe, Oke; Schroth, Joachim; Schulte, Patrick; Strobel, Johannes; Lourenço, Nuno |
| Abstract: | The impact of climate change on European Union (EU) countries and regions is poised to exhibit considerable diversity, influenced by factors encompassing average temperature, sectoral composition, developmental stages, and adaptation endeavours. The transition towards a more climate-friendly economy demands a well-orchestrated approach to mitigate enduring productivity costs. This shift will have varied implications for businesses, contingent upon their scale, access to financial resources, and capacity for innovation. The formulation of transition policies holds the potential to foster green innovation without displacing other initiatives, yet stringent climate regulations might impede the productivity ascent of pollutant-emitting enterprises. It will thus take time to reap the benefits of innovation. The efficacy of the policy mix is of critical importance in determining the trajectory of success. Market-driven mechanisms exhibit milder distortions compared to non-market-based strategies, though they may not inherently stimulate innovation. Significantly, subsidies earmarked for green research and development (R&D) emerge as a pivotal instrument for fostering innovation, thus constituting a vital component of the policy repertoire during the green transition. The implementation of transition policies will inevitably trigger a substantial reallocation of resources among and within sectors, potentially carrying short-term adverse ramifications. Notably, considerable productivity disparities exist between top and bottom emitters within specific industries. The transition period poses a risk to a substantial proportion of firms and can erode employment opportunities, with a likely decline in new ventures within affected sectors. JEL Classification: D24, L52, O33, O38, Q54, Q58 |
| Keywords: | climate change impact, climate transition policies, economic reallocation, green innovation, physical risk, productivity, transition risk |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024340&r=eec |
| By: | Mitra, Alessio; Niakaros, Konstantinos |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the causal impact of the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation on financial firm-level outcomes using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach. We use administrative data from CORDA and financial data from ORBIS spanning from 2010 to 2022, for a sample of approximately 40 thousand unique private companies that applied for Horizon 2020 funding. The findings suggest that firms receiving Horizon 2020 grants exhibit an average increase of 20% in employment and about 30% in total assets and revenues, compared to comparable companies in the control group, in the years after receiving their first grant. Positive effects persist even after 2.5 years, which is the average duration of a project in our sample. Companies in the “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” NACE sectors are driving the results, while other sectors show insignificant effects. |
| Keywords: | Horizon 2020, Difference-in-Differences, European Union, Innovation policy |
| JEL: | G38 L52 O38 D22 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:283906&r=eec |
| By: | Ochsner, Christian; Other, Lars; Thiel, Esther; Zuber, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run interaction between Germany's economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our projections using Bayesian estimation techniques. Overall, Germany's potential output growth up to 2070 will be low if current economic trends persist. In particular, the diminishing labor volume, coupled with sluggish total factor productivity and investment trend growth, contributes to the decline. Our results highlight the significance of demographic factors in shaping economic trajectories and the critical need for policy interventions to mitigate adverse effects. Our analysis can serve as valuable inputs for formulating long-term economic policies. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, production function, potential output, Germany, long-run forecast, economic growth |
| JEL: | E13 E17 E23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:284412&r=eec |
| By: | Akin A. Cilekoglu (University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine how allowances allocation affected emissions of power sector installations in the EU ETS following the Paris Agreements. The dataset I use covers the 2010-2022 period, includes the emissions and allowances of 4, 498 installations operating in power sector across the 27 Member States of the European Union. I discover that installations receiving lower allowances in the first quartile (Q1) reduced their emissions by 3.5% from 2016 to 2022 compared to the 2010-2015 period. I find no evidence on the installations in second, third and fourth quartiles due to the country specific developments. I also show that country characteristics have a crucial role in policy effectiveness because the emissions of installations located in lower-income Member States entered into the EU at later stages did not fall. |
| Keywords: | Emissions, Paris Agreement, Power sector, Climate change. JEL classification: Q40, Q48, O13, H32, L25. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202401&r=eec |
| By: | Emily Little; Florent Cogen; Quentin Bustarret; Virginie Dussartre; Maxime L\^aasri; Gabriel Kasmi; Marie Girod; Frederic Bienvenu; Maxime Fortin; Jean-Yves Bourmaud |
| Abstract: | The ATLAS model simulates the various stages of the electricity market chain in Europe, including the formulation of offers by different market actors, the coupling of European markets, strategic optimization of production portfolios and, finally, real-time system balancing processes. ATLAS was designed to simulate the various electricity markets and processes that occur from the day ahead timeframe to real-time with a high level of detail. Its main aim is to capture impacts from imperfect actor coordination, evolving forecast errors and a high-level of technical constraints--both regarding different production units and the different market constraints. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.12848&r=eec |
| By: | Sabat, Iryna; Neumann-Böhme, Sebastian; Stargardt, Tom; Schreyögg, Jonas |
| Abstract: | European COvid Survey (ECOS), a longitudinal study spanning eight European countries, was initiated early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Its purpose was to comprehend public perceptions, trust, knowledge, and behaviors related to COVID-19, including vaccination. The study aimed to enable timely monitoring and assess relationships between these variables, producing evidence for policy and research in Europe. ECOS pursued a dual objective: first, conducting quick descriptive analyses at the end of fieldwork to produce policy-relevant evidence and share timely findings on sentiments toward containment policies, vaccinations, and vaccine types through press releases and events. These findings were valuable as they were both prompt and representative of national populations. Second, ECOS aimed to address health-economic research questions for an academic audience, utilizing advanced analytic methodologies. The resulting data-based research from ECOS provided an empirical foundation to understand longitudinal phenomena and relationships, contributing to a deeper comprehension of socioeconomic processes and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, it offered informed findings for policymakers to shape effective responses and policies. This technical report provides an account of the design, development, and methodology of 11 data collections henceforth referred to as waves of the survey, which were fielded between April 2020 and December 2022. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, longitudinal survey, health economics, trust, vaccination, policy support |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hcherp:284369&r=eec |