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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒03‒18
43 papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
| By: | Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile; Ferrari Minesso, Massimo; Mork, Jente Esther; Van Robays, Ine |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The pass-through is stronger and more persistent when gas prices are driven by aggregate demand or supply pressures, while inventory shocks have a weaker impact. Supply shocks, moreover, are found to pass through to all components of euro area inflation – producer prices, wages and core inflation, which has implications for monetary policy. We finally document how the response of gas prices to shocks is non-linear and is significantly magnified in periods of low unemployment. JEL Classification: C50, C54, E30, E31, Q43 |
| Keywords: | euro area, gas price, pass-through, price |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242905&r=eec |
| By: | Angeloni, Ignazio |
| Abstract: | In its first ten years (2014-2023), the banking union was successful in its prudential agenda but failed spectacularly in its underlying objective: establishing a single banking market in the euro area. This goal is now more important than ever, and easier to attain than at any time in the last decade. To make progress, crossborder banks should receive a specific treatment within general banking union legislation. Suggestions are made on how to make such regulatory carve-out effective and legally sound. |
| Keywords: | Banking Union, Single Banking Market, Euro Area |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:283622&r=eec |
| By: | Valerio Della Corte (Bank of Italy); Raffaele Santioni (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | PMutual funds are a key investment vehicle for households, but past research has questioned the ability of less sophisticated retail investors to optimally select mutual funds. We provide further evidence on this topic by looking at a large sample of mutual funds held by euro-area households from 2009 to 2020. We document that mutual funds with lower participation by institutional investors tend to be more expensive and yield lower risk-adjusted returns, after controlling for many possible predictors of funds’ performance. The underperformance is especially pronounced for equity funds and within-fund over time, meaning that households tend to hold proportionally more funds at times when their risk-adjusted performance is inferior. Running flow-performance regressions, we find that household flows chase past returns rather than risk-adjusted returns and exhibit much stronger inertia than institutional investor flows, which may help explain why they earn lower risk-adjusted returns. Overall, our findings are consistent with models in which individual investors face significant search costs in the mutual funds market. |
| Keywords: | households finance, investment decisions, retail mutual funds |
| JEL: | G5 G14 G23 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1426_23&r=eec |
| By: | Giovanni Melina (International Monetary Fund); Stefania Villa (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Shocks to capital utilization are introduced into a structural macroeconomic closed-economy model with financial frictions to capture disruptions to the ability of the capital stock to provide capital services used in production. Estimates for the euro area and the United States show that these shocks were among the most important drivers of the output contraction during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 crisis, while financial shocks were more significant only during the Global Financial Crisis. Thanks to the timely and strong intervention of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, monetary policy shocks exerted a sizeable and positive contribution to output and inflation during the COVID-19 crisis. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Global Financial Crisis, Great Lockdown, monetary policy, capital utilization |
| JEL: | E4 E5 E6 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1425_23&r=eec |
| By: | Martin F. Hellwig (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the role of national central banks (NCBs) in the governance of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). NCBs are the owners of the European Central Bank (ECB), and their governors dominate the ECB’s Governing Council, but in monetary policy operations, NCBs are subordinated to the ECB. The dominance of NCB governors has materially affected Governing Council decisions on relations between NCBs and the ECB, allowing the NCBs to maintain some of their erstwhile glory, sometimes in contradiction to the primary law. Examples involve the monetary funding of investments declared as non-monetary, violations of Treaty provisions for the allocation of income from monetary policy operations, and accounting rules that obfuscate the boundary between ECB-subordinate and independent activities of NCBs. The net effect of these developments is to enlarge the domain of NCB activities. |
| Keywords: | European Monetary Union, European System of Central Banks, Governance of the Eurosystem, ANFA, ELA, PSPP, Central-Bank Accounting and Balance Sheets |
| JEL: | E50 E58 F53 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2024_07&r=eec |
| By: | Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain); Stefano Pica (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We study household expectations for a wide range of macroeconomic and individual-level variables in the six largest euro area countries. Although households disagree in their survey responses, their expectations are correlated in the cross-section. Two principal components account for a significant portion of the variance of all expectations. These components capture household perceptions of the sources of macroeconomic dynamics, with the first capturing supply-side views and the second component reflecting demand-side views. This structure of perceptions and disagreement is stable across countries and over time and does not vary with demographic or socioeconomic characteristics. We then use these insights to identify two common factors driving expectations over time. These factors are consistent with a narrative based on perceived supply-side inflationary pressures after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Recent monetary policy tightening has impacted both factors, with a negative effect on economic growth expectations and ambivalent effects on inflation expectations. We conclude that understanding how people think about price increases is crucial for managing inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | survey, expectations, inflation, output, supply, demand |
| JEL: | D1 D8 E2 E3 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1441_24&r=eec |
| By: | Maximilian Konradt; Thomas McGregor; Mr. Frederik G Toscani |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of carbon pricing on inflation? This paper shows empirically that the consequences of the European Union’s Emission Trading System (ETS) and national carbon taxation on inflation have been limited in the euro area, so far. This result is supported by analysis based on a panel local projections approach, as well as event studies based on individual countries. Our estimates suggest that carbon taxes raised the price of energy but had limited effects on overall consumer prices. Since future climate policy will need to be much more ambitious compared to what has been observed so far, including the need for larger increases in carbon prices, possible non-linearities might make extrapolating from historical results difficult. We thus also use input-output tables to simulate the mechanical effect of a carbon tax consistent with the EU’s ‘Fit-for-55’ commitments on inflation. The required increase of effective carbon prices from around 40 Euro per ton of CO2 in 2021 to around 150 Euro by 2030 could raise annual euro area inflation by between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points. It is worth noting that the energy price increases caused by the rise in the effective carbon price to 150 Euro is substantially smaller than the energy price spike seen in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Green transition; carbon taxes; climate policy; inflation |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/031&r=eec |
| By: | Tokarski, Paweł |
| Abstract: | The inquiry into the global significance of the euro, which is the second most important currency in the international financial system after the US dollar (hereinafter, the dollar), should be treated as a priority in efforts to strengthen the EU's strategic autonomy. The main obstacles impeding the further internationalisation of the euro include the lack of a sovereign behind it and the heterogeneity and structural problems of the euro area member states. The international status of the euro can be actively improved by strengthening its role in the green transformation as well as in the further deepening and integration of the financial markets in Europe - and by promoting the 'digital euro' project. The current trends of growing geopolitical rivalry, digitalisation, and the rise of platform companies in the global economy will steer the international financial system towards greater regionalisation. |
| Keywords: | euro, euro area, currency, dollar, international financial system, geopolitical rivalry, digitalisation, platform companies |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:283588&r=eec |
| By: | Wagner, Joachim |
| Abstract: | The use of robots by firms can be expected to go hand in hand with higher productivity, higher product quality and more product innovation, which should be positively related to export activities. This paper uses firm level data from the Flash Eurobarometer 486 survey conducted in February - May 2020 to investigate the link between the use of robots and export activities in manufacturing enterprises from the 27 member countries of the European Union. Applying standard parametric econometric models and a new machine-learning estimator, Kernel-Regularized Least Squares (KRLS), we find that firms which use robots do more often export, do more often export to various destinations all over the world, and do export to more different destinations. The estimated robots premium for extensive margins of exports is statistically highly significant after controlling for firm size, firm age, patents, and country. Furthermore, the size of this premium can be considered to be large. Extensive margins of exports and the use of robots are positively related. |
| Keywords: | Robots, exports, firm level data, Flash Eurobarometer 486, kernel-regularized leastsquares (KRLS) |
| JEL: | D22 F14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:283903&r=eec |
| By: | Camilla Lupiani |
| Abstract: | In view of the persistent zero lower bound, which has dominated the European financial landscape since December 2012, the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented unconventional monetary policies. However, the effects of these unconventional policies have not been fully captured by the traditional reference rates, which have remained anchored at values close to or below the zero lower bound. In order to assess the impact of these measures in more detail, the concept of "shadow rates" was introduced. These shadow rates, often based on financial indicators, provide a more comprehensive view of the overall macroeconomic situation. The present study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of a Taylor rule based on shadow rates with that based on the reference rate, the €str, in an out-of-sample period. The results of this analysis highlight that a Taylor rule based on shadow rates offers a more accurate representation of the stance of the monetary policy, and is even used by monetary analysts to form expectations, especially when the central bank does not provide clear guidance. This study suggests that incorporating the shadow rate into the Taylor rule could provide valuable insights for guiding monetary policy and get a deeper understanding of the macroeconomic landscape. |
| Keywords: | central bank, ECB, interest rate, shadow rate, GMM, efficiency, zero lower bound, effective lower bound |
| JEL: | E02 E43 E52 E58 F01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24218&r=eec |
| By: | Giulia Bovini (Bank of Italy); Emanuele Ciani (Bank of Italy); Marta De Philippis; Stefania Romano (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We study inequality in gross labour income among the working-age population, comparing Italy to the other main euro area countries. We use EU-SILC data between 2008 and 2018, the longest period without time breaks. We show that inequality in individual labour income is higher in Italy than in France and Germany. This is mainly a consequence of the lower employment rate, i.e. of the higher share of working-age individuals with no labour income, rather than of wider earnings disparities among workers. Inequality in equivalised household labour income is also higher in Italy than in France in Germany because a lower employment rate translates into a larger share of single or no-earner households. In line with these findings, while in Italy low-earning workers are relatively few, they face a greater risk of poverty than in France or Germany, since they more often live in households where other members are not employed or have low-work-intensity jobs. These results stress the importance of jointly considering earnings and employment dynamics when analysing labour income inequality, low-pay work, and in-work poverty. |
| Keywords: | working-age population, employment rate, inequality, in-work poverty |
| JEL: | J21 J30 J82 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_806_23&r=eec |
| By: | Munch Grønlund, Asger; Jørgensen, Kasper; Schupp, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates, which we assume span core inflation. The model provides estimates of market-based expectations for core inflation, as well as core inflation risk premia, at daily frequency, whereas core inflation expectations from surveys or macroeconomic projections are typically only available monthly or quarterly. We find that core inflation-linked swap rates are generally less volatile than headline inflation linked swap rates and that market participants expected core inflation to be substantially more persistent than headline inflation following the 2022 energy price spike. Using an event-study methodology, we also find that monetary policy shocks significantly lower core inflation expectations. JEL Classification: E31, E44, E52 |
| Keywords: | affine term structure model, inflation-linked swaps, inflation expectations |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242908&r=eec |
| By: | Davidson, Sharada Nia; Moccero, Diego Nicolas |
| Abstract: | When capital in the banking system becomes depleted, the degree to which financial intermediation and the macroeconomy are adversely affected is likely to depend on the financial and macroeconomic environment. However, existing studies either assume that the effects of bank capital shocks are linear or ignore feedback effects and the impact on the macroeconomy. Using data on the largest euro area countries and Bayesian Panel Threshold VARs, we investigate the importance of different factors in amplifying shocks in banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion. Our results demonstrate that nonlinearities matter. When the banking sector is already vulnerable to large capital losses, it is more difficult for banks to accommodate a depletion in capital and lending and economic activity contract more severely. Similarly, low interest rates, which are typically associated with low bank margins and profitability, also lead to a larger decline in lending. De-risking is also more pronounced in these cases. The state of the business cycle, though, does not influence the propagation of shocks to the same extent. We conclude that financial factors play a larger role than the macroeconomic environment in heightening shocks to banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion. JEL Classification: C11, C33, E58, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank balance sheet, bank capital vulnerability, hierarchical prior, long run marginal expected shortfall, macroeconomic adjustment, panel threshold var |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242912&r=eec |
| By: | Sepp, Tim Florian; Israel, Karl-Friedrich; Treitz, Benjamin; Hartl, Tom |
| Abstract: | The resilience of the German banking system is studied on the semiaggregated level from 1968 to 2022. We distinguish between Large Banks, Regional Banks, Landesbanken, Sparkassen and Credit Unions and study their z-scores as a measure of resilience in response to the monetary policy stances of the Bundesbank and the ECB, respectively. We estimate two-way fixed effects panel regression models for both periods separately. The results suggest that monetary policy was more effective in enhancing resilience during the period of a national currency controlled by the Deutsche Bundesbank. The effect across bank types is much more heterogeneous after the inception of the ECB. In particular, decreasing resilience of Large Banks is associated with expansionary (un)conventional monetary policy in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Resilience, Monetary Policy, Banking, Financial Stability, Germany, Deutsche Bundesbank, ECB, Credit Union, Sparkasse |
| JEL: | E42 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:leiwps:283608&r=eec |
| By: | Rosalia Greco (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Since 2000, Italy's output growth lagged behind countries like Germany, France, and Spain, primarily due to weak labor productivity dynamics. Italy's labor productivity growth, especially low before the Great Recession, showed a small improvement afterwards, driven by the business sector. Productivity growth and levels vary across sectors, with the industrial sector generally outperforming market services in all countries. Italy's low aggregate growth, however, cannot be traced back to a composition tilted towards low productivity sectors, rather to across-the-board insufficient sectors' productivity growth. Few exceptions emerge in the industrial sector in 2014-2019: some manufacturing sectors that are more exposed to international trade exhibited higher productivity growth in Italy than elsewhere. Investment affects labor productivity growth through capital deepening. Investment trends, influenced by the financial crisis, varied across countries and sectors. Investment in intangibles (especially important for innovation) consistently increased, while investment in other assets fluctuated, with Italy and Spain experiencing delayed recovery. Intangibles constituted a larger share of investment in the industrial sector, and were most relevant in France. |
| Keywords: | labor productivity, growth, investment |
| JEL: | E22 E24 O47 O52 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_825_23&r=eec |
| By: | Jost, Thomas; Mink, Reimund |
| Abstract: | The Eurosystem and the Deutsche Bundesbank will incur substantial losses in 2023 that are likely to persist for several years. Due to the massive purchases of securities in the last 10 years, especially of government bonds, the banks' excess reserves have risen sharply. The resulting high interest payments to the banks since the turnaround in monetary policy, with little income for the large-scale securities holdings, led to massive criticism. The banks were said to be making "unfair" profits as a result, while the fiscal authorities had to forego the previously customary transfers of central bank profits. Populist demands to limit bank profits by, for example, drastically increasing the minimum reserve ratios in the Eurosystem to reduce excess reserves are creating new severe problems and are neither justified nor helpful. Ultimately, the EU member states have benefited for a very long time from historically low interest rates because of the Eurosystem's extraordinary loose monetary policy and must now bear the flip side consequences of the massive expansion of central bank balance sheets during the necessary period of monetary policy normalisation. |
| Abstract: | Das Eurosystem und die Deutsche Bundesbank werden im Jahr 2023 und wahrscheinlich auch in den kommenden Jahren beträchtliche Verluste einfahren. Durch die massiven Wertpapierkäufe der letzten zehn Jahre, insbesondere von Staatsanleihen, sind die Überschussreserven der Banken stark gestiegen. Die daraus resultierenden hohen Zinszahlungen an die Banken seit der Wende in der Geldpolitik, bei zugleich geringer Verzinsung der hohen Wertpapierbestände, führten zu massiver Kritik. Die Banken machten dadurch "unfaire" Gewinne, während der Fiskus auf die bisher üblichen Abführungen von Zentralbankgewinnen verzichten musste. Populistische Forderungen, die Gewinne der Banken zu begrenzen, indem z.B. die Mindestreservesätze im Eurosystem drastisch erhöht werden, um die Überschussreserven zu reduzieren, schaffen neue Probleme und sind weder sachlich gerechtfertigt noch hilfreich. Schließlich haben die EWU-Staaten aufgrund der ultra-expansiven Geldpolitik des Eurosystems sehr lange in beispielloser Weise von historisch niedrigen Zinsen profitiert und müssen nun die fiskalischen Folgen der massiven Ausweitung der Zentralbankbilanzen in der Phase der notwendigen geldpolitischen Normalisierung tragen. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Losses, Eurosystem, Quantitative Easing, Minimum Reserves, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E50 E58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:283623&r=eec |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits may have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European Economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. To do so, we first estimate a country-specific time-varying measure of fiscal sustainability, through the cointegration between government revenues and expenditures, and of external sustainability, derived from the exports-imports cointegration. We then resort to those time-varying coefficients to assess their impact on sovereign risk, proxied by 10-year CDS and CDS spreads (against the US) making use of Weighted Least Squares (WLS) analysis. Noticeably, we show that an improvement of both fiscal and external sustainability lead to a reduction in sovereign risk. This phenomenon becomes notably pronounced, particularly when examining countries experiencing an upward trajectory in their public debt levels. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Risk; Fiscal Sustainability; External Sustainability; CDS; CDS spreads. |
| JEL: | C23 F45 G23 G32 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03112024&r=eec |
| By: | Ermisch, John |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces to comparative cross-national fertility research a method to formalise what is meant by the TFR’s of countries ‘moving together’. It is based on the estimation of long run fertility relationships which are stationary series (so called ‘cointegrating equations’). Six sets of countries with similar TFR movements within each were identified: Northwest Europe (England and Wales, France, Netherlands and Belgium); (2) Southern Europe (Italy, Spain and Portugal); (3) the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland); (4) Germany and Austria; (5) the Eastern Europe group of Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Estonia); and (6) the group of Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. There are unique features of TFR movements in each region. But Northwest Europe, the Nordic countries and Southern Europe all share a decline in their TFR during the past decade, albeit from different levels of fertility. This strongly suggests that factors influencing fertility during this period do not stem from particular features in each country but broader influences, whether social or economic. |
| Date: | 2023–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nej84&r=eec |
| By: | Giovanna Scarcilli (University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | This paper adopts a novel copula-based technique to measure multidimensional dependence among facets of cumulative deprivation and provides empirical insights on this phenomenon from a cross-country and time perspective. Cumulative deprivation is a condition of simultaneous relative poverty across multiple dimensions of life. The dimensions taken into account are: disposable income, health status, housing quality, job conditions and educational attainment. Multidimensional deprivation is evaluated with the downward diagonal dependence index (DDDI). This index provides a measure of statistical dependence among the considered dimensions specifically for the bottom part of the overall joint distribution. The empirical application focuses on Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Czech republic, Romania and Sweden from 2007 to 2019 using EU-SILC data. In the considered period cumulative deprivation and multidimensional dependence both show a growing trend. The rise in the proportion of people who are deprived in many different dimensions strengthens their statistical association. The growth of multidimensional dependence is concerning and requires reconsidering the actual welfare states and their policies. |
| Keywords: | Cumulative deprivation, Copula function, Multidimensional dependence, Cross time and country comparisons |
| JEL: | D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-667&r=eec |
| By: | Marco Bernardini (Bank of Italy); Antonio M. Conti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | What is the overall impact of announcement and implementation effects of asset purchases on financial conditions? Existing research lacks a unified approach for answering this question. We fill this gap by estimating a VAR model based on two pillars: a unique daily dataset covering ECB's asset purchases over the period 2014-2021 and a novel identification strategy combining survey-based external instruments and narrative sign restrictions. The findings underscore the relevance of both purchase announcements and actual purchases in influencing bond yields and stock prices. Neglecting how purchases are actually implemented may severely distort the assessment of their effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, asset purchases, stock effects, and flow effects, high-frequency, VAR. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E44 C32 C54 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1435_23&r=eec |
| By: | Tiziano Ropele (Bank of Italy); Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley); Olivier Coibion (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Using Italian data that includes both firms' inflation forecasts and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find that as disagreement increases, so does misallocation. In times of low inflation, the aggregate TFP loss from the dispersed expectations-induced misallocation is moderate, but we argue that it is likely to become quite significant in times of high inflation. |
| Keywords: | misallocation, inflation expectations |
| JEL: | E31 C83 D84 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1437_23&r=eec |
| By: | Piergiorgio Alessandri (Bank of Italy); Andrea Gazzani (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | How do shifts in the supply of natural gas affect output and inflation? To answer this question, we construct an instrument for gas supply shocks using a large set of daily news on the European gas market over the 2010-2022 period and use the instrument within a Bayesian VAR model. We find that negative supply shocks are stagflationary and that their effects materialize over far longer horizons than those of oil supply shocks, with peaks (troughs) in core inflation (industrial production) that follow the shock by two years or more. This pattern is consistent with the structural features of the gas market, and it suggests that European economies are still grappling with the large price spikes that took place in 2022. |
| Keywords: | natural gas prices, inflation, narrative identification, Bayesian VAR |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q35 Q43 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1428_23&r=eec |
| By: | Ruiz, Miguel Haro; Schult, Christoph; Wunder, Christoph |
| Abstract: | This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation. |
| Keywords: | Iberian exception mechanism, inflation, policy evaluation, synthetic controls, wholesale electricity prices |
| JEL: | E31 L51 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:283618&r=eec |
| By: | Gloria Allione (Bank of Italy); Claire Giordano (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | By using highly granular monthly customs data and firm balance sheets, we document how firm heterogeneity mattered significantly in explaining Italy's 2020-21 goods export dynamics. Via a trade margin decomposition, we show how the exporters in the top 1 per cent of the export distribution (the ‘Happy Few’) were responsible for both the 2020 pandemic collapse and the slowdown in the second half of 2021 triggered by global input shortages. These firms operated mainly at the intensive margin and only partly by exiting some countries during the first wave of the pandemic. The relatively weaker performance of the Happy Few is confirmed when controlling for product and geographical specialization via econometric shift-share regressions. One possible explanation is the high share of top exporters participating in global value chains (GVCs). Exporters strongly integrated in GVCs were indeed hurt more by the two shocks than non-GVC firms were. Moreover, the exports of GVC firms that resorted more intensely to just-in-time business models with low inventory levels were more adversely affected by the 2021 supply chain disruptions. |
| Keywords: | firm heterogeneity, global value chains, inventory management, trade margins, shift-share decomposition |
| JEL: | D22 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_816_23&r=eec |
| By: | Luigi Infante (Bank of Italy); Francesca Lilla (Bank of Italy); Francesco Vercelli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Italian households’ financial savings reached exceptionally high levels. Using a time-varying coefficients VAR model with stochastic volatility, the paper aims to identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on households’ financial savings and other macroeconomic variables, distinguishing between a containment shock, a fear-of-infection shock, and an uncertainty shock. We find that the impact of the containment shock on financial savings is positive and high, whereas the impacts of the fear-of-infection and the uncertainty shocks are lower. Based on our counterfactual exercises, in the absence of the three identified shocks, from March to December 2020, financial savings would have been much lower than the value observed (€67 billion instead of €110 billion). |
| Keywords: | households' financial savings, COVID-19, outliers, time-varying VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1421_23&r=eec |
| By: | Andrea Fabiani (Bank of Italy); Fabio Massimo Piersanti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | How does inflation affect firms' performance, conditional on their capital structure? To answer this question, we exploit survey-based inflation surprises from the Eurozone and analyze the cross-section of stock returns for non-financial companies on days of release of inflation data over the period 2020-2022. Our results suggest that, in reaction to a positive inflation surprise, firms with relatively higher financial leverage experience larger stock returns. Moreover, long-term leverage drives the adjustment, consistent with Fisherian theories emphasizing the fall in the real value of debt liabilities associated with higher inflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation, capital structure, leverage, debt maturity, stock returns, high-frequency |
| JEL: | E31 E50 G12 G30 G32 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1434_23&r=eec |
| By: | Luigi Infante (Bank of Italy); David Loschiavo (Bank of Italy); Andrea Neri (Bank of Italy); Matteo Spuri (Bank of Italy); Francesco Vercelli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of the 2022 inflationary shock on Italian households’ wealth along the joint distribution of income and net wealth. The analysis was carried out by dividing households into four groups based on their median income and net wealth, using a methodology similar to the Distributional Wealth Accounts developed at European level. The erosion of the real value of net financial wealth due to inflation was heterogeneous across households. While capital losses were small for the least wealthy households, for the wealthiest group they exceeded one tenth of annual disposable income. Conversely, the reduction in the real value of financial liabilities allowed the group of households with high income and low net wealth to realize a capital gain of nearly one tenth of their income. |
| Keywords: | distributional wealth accounts, inflation, joint income and wealth distribution |
| JEL: | D14 D31 D51 E31 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_817_23&r=eec |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin; Elisabetta Mirto; Yan Qin; Luca Rossini |
| Abstract: | Putting a price on carbon -- with taxes or developing carbon markets -- is a widely used policy measure to achieve the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper tackles the issue of producing point, direction-of-change, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We aim to uncover supply- and demand-side forces that can contribute to improving the prediction accuracy of models at short- and medium-term horizons. We show that a simple Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model, augmented with either one or two factors capturing a set of predictors affecting the price of carbon, provides substantial accuracy gains over a wide set of benchmark forecasts, including survey expectations and forecasts made available by data providers. We extend the study to verified emissions and demonstrate that, in this case, adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR model. We rely on emissions and price forecasts to build market monitoring tools that track demand and price pressure in the EU ETS market. Our results are relevant for policymakers and market practitioners interested in quantifying the desired and unintended macroeconomic effects of monitoring the carbon market dynamics. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.04828&r=eec |
| By: | Gaetano Basso (Bank of Italy); Fabrizio Colonna (Bank of Italy); Domenico Depalo (Bank of Italy); Graziella Mendicino (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the role of labour in the transition to a net zero economy and provides an analysis for Italy over the period 2011-2021. First, we observe that the emissions generated from production activities declined over this period. We estimate that the contribution of employment reallocation across sectors was modest, while that of sectoral efficiency – particularly the shift in the energy mix towards cleaner sources – was decisive. Second, we show that the share of employment in the environmental goods and services sector was small in 2020 and has remained broadly stable since 2014. Our results suggest that, so far, labour has not played a prominent role in the green transition. However, this trend could change in the near future, as CO2 emission reduction targets take on an increasingly key role in production activities. |
| Keywords: | labour demand, green economy, ecological transition, public investments |
| JEL: | J23 Q52 Q56 H54 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_811_23&r=eec |
| By: | Odran Bonnet; Étienne Fize; Tristan Loisel; Lionel Wilner |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the introduction of the German carbon tax in 2021 as well as excise tax rebates on fuel in both France and Germany, consecutive to the 2022 oil crisis, to infer how fuel tourism responds to changes in relative prices. Based on French high-frequency transaction-level data issued from individual banking accounts, we find substantial displacement between foreign and domestic consumption. When relative prices increase by 1%, the relative cross-border demand decreases by 7.7%. In border areas, the elasticity of tax revenue with respect to foreign prices is as high as 0.5. Moreover, there is no substantial difference in demand response to either carbon or excise tax. Such empirical evidence illustrates the importance of coordinating tax policy within EU. |
| Keywords: | commodity taxation, tax coordination, carbon pricing, fuel tourism, transaction-level data |
| JEL: | H20 H23 H77 R48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10918&r=eec |
| By: | Carmina-Elena Tolbaru (Pitesti University Center, Romania,) |
| Abstract: | Money laundry is a boosting phenomenon worldwide, affecting multiple domains of social life, and we need sustainable efforts to hinder the actions committed by offenders to hide the profits obtained from their offences. The complexity and magnitude of this phenomenon taking place at present is explained within the context of growth of technology, which opens new horizons concerning offence-related opportunities. Thus, offences such as tax evasion, financing terrorist organisations, drug trafficking, corruption, frauds, as well as any other illegal financial activities, are committed regarding the offence of money laundry, witnessing a form of organised cross-border criminality. Starting in 2021, the rate of illegal use of crypto currencies for the purpose of money laundry has registered a significant growth, which made the European Union establish a new regulation framework in the field of combating money laundry, extending the field of application of rules to crypto-assets transfers. This paper analyzes the growing global phenomenon of the use of crypto-assets for criminal purposes, examines the regulatory framework in the European Union, and provides practical recommendations that can help prevent and combat money laundering. |
| Keywords: | money laundry, offenders, organised crime, crypto-assets, European rules |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0312&r=eec |
| By: | Simone Emiliozzi (Bank of Italy); Fabrizio Ferriani (Bank of Italy); Andrea Gazzani (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe disruptions in the European gas market, with significant repercussions on a global scale. The conflict caused a surge in energy prices, a major reshuffling of global natural gas flows, and a shift in the policy-makers' agendas towards energy supply security. This paper describes the global gas market and analyses the consequences of the war, focusing in particular on the European gas market and on global LNG trade flows. We first review the characteristics of the gas market in terms of both pricing benchmarks and contractual terms. Next, we analyse the changes to LNG and natural gas production, consumption, and trade flows throughout the 2022-23 energy crisis. Finally, we review the main policy response to the energy crisis and present some considerations on the gas market outlook. |
| Keywords: | natural gas, energy crisis, LNG, fragmentation |
| JEL: | L95 P28 Q35 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_824_23&r=eec |
| By: | Crispino Marta (Bank of Italy); Francesco Paolo Conteduca (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the methodology underlying the matching between non-EU counterparts in the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency data and firms in the Bureau van Dijk Orbis database. Through different validation exercises, we show that the matches stemming from our proposed procedure are largely correct regarding both records and transaction values. The resulting corresponding tables can serve as a useful tool to shed light on the features of the counterparts of Italian firms active in international trade. |
| Keywords: | record linkage, big data integration, customs data, balance sheet data, name harmonization, blocking, entity matching |
| JEL: | C81 F14 D22 C55 C88 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_823_23&r=eec |
| By: | Matilde Cappelletti (University of Mannheim and ZEW Mannheim); Leonardo Maria Giuffrida (ZEW Mannheim, MaCCI and CESifo); Gabriele Rovigatti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of public procurement on business survival. Using Italy as a case study, we construct a large-scale dataset of firms covering balance-sheets, income-statements, and administrative records and match these data with public contract data. Employing a regression discontinuity design for close-call auctions, we find that winners are subsequently more likely to stay in the market than marginal losers and that the boost in survival chances lasts longer than the contract duration. We document that this effect is associated with earnings substitution rather than increased total revenue and that winners experience no increase in productivity. Securing contracts relaxes credit constraints and acts as a mechanism to foster survival. |
| Keywords: | firm survival, firm dynamics, public demand, public procurement, demand shocks, productivity, credit, auctions, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | D25 D44 H32 H57 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1439_24&r=eec |
| By: | Heimann, Tobias; Argueyrolles, Robin; Reinhardt, Manuel; Schuenemann, Franziska; Söder, Mareike; Delzeit, Ruth |
| Abstract: | The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030, and bans the use of biofuels with a high risk of causing indirect land‐use change in high carbon stock areas (high ILUC‐risk criteria). The only biofuel feedstock affected by this criterion is palm oil. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model DART‐BIO for a scenario‐based policy analysis and evaluate a phase‐out of palm oil‐based biodiesel, and an additional phase‐out of soy oil‐based biodiesel in the EU. Our results show that the palm phase‐out has only a relatively small impact on global palm fruit production and total crop land use in tropical and subtropical regions, while the soy phase‐out leads to a comparable stronger decrease in global soy production, and a reduction in total cropland use in soy‐producing regions. Both policies lead to increased oilseed production in the EU. Therefore, farmer in Malaysia and Indonesia face a significantly reduced income. While European farmers profit the most, EU firms and households are confronted with higher expenditures. Finally, this study indicates that unilateral demand‐side regulations for a single good in a single sector is not sufficient for effective environmental protection. Enhanced binding sustainability criteria and certification schemes for the use of all vegetable oils in every sector and industry as well as improved protection schemes for sensible forest areas are necessary. |
| Keywords: | Biofuels, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), Land Use, Palm Oil, Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), Soy Oil |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:281955&r=eec |
| By: | Antonio Colangelo (European Central Bank); Asier Cornejo Pérez (European Central Bank); Danilo Liberati (Bank of Italy); Giorgio Nuzzo (Bank of Italy); Antonio Rodríguez Caloca (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the ongoing efforts by the European authorities to reduce the reporting burden for banks by assessing the statistical methods currently used to compile data pertaining to financial transactions on securities holdings. Based on statistical information collected by the Bank of Italy, we compare data on purchases of securities (net of sales and redemptions) reported by banks with transaction estimates based on indirect (i.e. balance sheet) methods envisaged within the methodological framework of datasets compiled by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). Although the direct method of collecting data on transactions is more costly for reporting agents, it produces results which are fully aligned with current statistical methodological standards (European System of Accounts 2010, ESA 2010). By contrast, the indirect method is a simplified and less costly approach. The recent development of high-quality data sources such as the ESCB integrated system for the market prices of securities – the Centralised Securities Database – has boosted the attractiveness of indirect methods, since they have the potential to deliver accurate and reliable estimates. The significance of the differences between direct collection and indirect compilation of these data is analysed in detail for listed ISIN securities that are actively traded on exchanges, by also considering the impact of price volatility and trading activity. From an aggregated perspective, all indirect methods produce results which are comparable and consistent with the ESA 2010 methodology for all instrument types. There are some minor differences for equity instruments, due to the higher price volatility and trading activity associated with these instruments, but the overall aggregated dynamics are also well captured by indirect methods in these cases. The results thus support implementing simplified reporting solutions that would reduce the burden of statistical data collection without jeopardising statistical quality. It should also be noted that the differences can be expected to be even smaller if the methods are applied at a monthly frequency (as may be the case in future in the context of the ESCB Integrated Reporting Framework, for instance) instead of at a quarterly frequency, as in our exercise. |
| Keywords: | micro data, security-by-security data, securities, transaction data |
| JEL: | C18 C81 G15 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_812_23&r=eec |
| By: | Alessandro Borin (Bank of Italy); Gianmarco Cariola (Bank of Italy); Elena Gentili (Bank of Italy); Andrea Linarello (Bank of Italy); Michele Mancini (Bank of Italy); Tullia Padellini (Bank of Italy); Ludovic Panon (Bank of Italy); Enrico Sette (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Using customs and balance sheet data for Italy, we identify foreign-dependent products (FDPs) and quantify the effect of any disruptions to those products. Our framework allows us to assess how geoeconomic fragmentation affects value added at different levels of aggregation. Our baseline calibration suggests that a reduction in the imports of FDPs from high geopolitical risk countries would result in a 2 per cent drop in GDP, with sizable heterogeneity across firms, regions, and sectors. Our findings highlight that the short-term costs of supply disruptions for critical inputs can be substantial, especially when firms cannot easily substitute away from those products. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomic fragmentation, international trade, imported inputs, global value chain |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_819_23&r=eec |
| By: | Koski, Heli; Pajarinen, Mika; Rouvinen, Petri |
| Abstract: | Abstract Investment is an expenditure from which future returns are expected. The portion of past investments that retains potential for future returns is referred to as capital. If capital can be touched, it is tangible; otherwise, it is intangible. Brands and patents are examples of intangible capital. For decades, Finland has been making more investments in intangible rather than tangible productive assets. However, due to the different accumulation and obsolescence of the two capital types, Finland’s productive capital stock is still predominantly tangible. Finland and Germany are similar in terms of intangible capital. In contrast, Sweden invests significantly more in intangible capital than Finland and also utilizes these investments more efficiently. Finland’s intangible capital (per hour worked) is only two-thirds of that in Sweden. The capital related to software, databases, and data in Sweden is four times greater than in Finland. |
| Keywords: | Intangible capital, Business investment, Labor productivity, National accounts |
| JEL: | D24 E22 O30 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:133&r=eec |
| By: | Michele Loberto (Bank of Italy); Alessandro Mistretta (Bank of Italy); Matteo Spuri (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Mitigating the negative impact of climate change implies a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions: moving towards the net-zero target requires, among other things, a dramatic improvement in the energy efficiency of residential buildings, which account for 12.5 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in Italy. This paper estimates the extent to which energy efficiency labels are capitalized into house prices. We find that the most energy-efficient houses sell at a 25 per cent premium over the least efficient ones. Our contribution is relevant for two reasons. First, we provide granular estimates of the impact of energy labels on house prices in Italy and show that the energy efficiency premium is significantly heterogeneous across provinces due to differences in climate conditions and regulatory frameworks. Second, energy labels play a key role and are used as a benchmark for several policies, and the heterogeneity in the energy efficiency premium may call for more targeted public policies that promote investment in energy efficiency. |
| Keywords: | housing, energy efficiency |
| JEL: | O1 Q5 R3 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_818_23&r=eec |
| By: | Gianmarco Cariola (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade. To do so, we used a new panel database that included information on imports and exports at the firm, product, country, year, and month level for the entire population of Italian trading firms. We merged it with additional data sources that provided further details on the characteristics of firms and on the lockdown stringency and death rate of COVID-19, both in foreign countries and Italian provinces. After presenting a descriptive analysis, we identified how the pandemic in foreign countries affected Italian firms’ international trade; our results suggest that the impact on imports and exports was significant during the first wave, mainly driven by the stringency of the restrictions rather than by the death rate of COVID-19. Second, we analyzed how the local containment policies implemented by the Italian authorities affected trade flows and found that their effect was not significant. Finally, we showed that the varieties that were traded less intensively had a higher probability of being dropped in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis and those that were displaced in 2020 had a higher probability of not being traded one year later. This suggests that the pandemic affected the set of varieties traded by Italian firms and that its effects on the composition of imports and exports might be non-transitory. |
| Keywords: | trade, global value chains, COVID-19, Italian customs data |
| JEL: | D22 F14 I10 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1427_23&r=eec |
| By: | Daniela, Antonescu; Ioana, Florescu |
| Abstract: | The outbreak of COVID-19 has induced economic and financial disruptions to global economies, consistent with those experienced during previous episodes of economic or financial crises. This article offers a global perspective into the spread of the virus by investigating the convergence patterns of COVID-19 across 242 regions NUTS 2 in European Union, in period 2019 - 2022. The analysis presents regional imbalances evaluated by statistical techniques and methods that can reflect the evolution concerning the main economic aspects. Using the Gini coefficient for the last four years we demonstrated there was a slow convergence process in the NUTS 2 regions interrupted by the pandemic global crisis. Also, the evolution of the GDP per capita in PPS at regional level in the case of all the Member States for the 1997-2021 was analyzed in order to show the intensity between the crises. The pandemic crisis was also compared to the economic crisis (2008-2009) which demonstrated that the COVID-19 didn’t have the same impact as the financial one, pandemic had the lower intensity. |
| Keywords: | regional convergence, Gini Coefficient, NUTS 2 Regions, COVID-19 pandemic crisis, economic-financial crisis |
| JEL: | R0 R11 R15 R19 |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120224&r=eec |
| By: | Krämer-Eis, Helmut; Botsari, Antonia; Gvetadze, Salome; Lang, Frank; Torfs, Wouter |
| Abstract: | This working paper provides an overview of the main markets relevant to the EIF, thereby documenting the impact of the polycrisis and the related challenging economic environment on SME financing. The publication first discusses the general market environment and then covers the markets for SME equity and debt products. In addition, it focuses on a number of thematic policy areas that are of particular interest to the EIF, such as Inclusive Finance, Fintech and Green finance & investment. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eifwps:283600&r=eec |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Sollte der Europäische Rat im Dezember oder später grünes Licht dafür geben, EU-Beitrittsverhandlungen mit der Ukraine und Moldau zu eröffnen, dann geht es nicht mehr nur um symbolische Solidarität mit einem von Russland überfallenen bzw. bedrohten Nachbarn. Vielmehr beginnt im Schatten des Krieges ein neues Kapitel der Erweiterungspolitik. Nach der Türkei und den sechs Ländern des Westlichen Balkans bildet Osteuropa mit der Ukraine, Moldau und Georgien den dritten Erweiterungsraum. Spätestens seit Russlands Vollinvasion in der Ukraine versteht Brüssel unter Erweiterung die Expansion in strategisch wichtige Räume. Geopolitische Forderungen nach schnellen Beitritten nagen dabei an der konservativen Erweiterungsdoktrin - nach der es weder Rabatte auf die Kopenhagener Kriterien für eine EU-Mitgliedschaft geben darf noch Abkürzungen auf dem Weg zur Aufnahme. Hinzu kommt, dass die Beitrittsfragen bald in die Fährnisse der Kriegsdiplomatie geraten könnten, wenn es um dauerhafte Sicherheit für die Nachkriegs-Ukraine gehen wird. Die Europäische Kommission greift nun Ideen auf, wie neue Mitglieder schrittweise integriert werden könnten. Damit versucht sie, dem Dilemma zwischen Geo- und Integrationspolitik auszuweichen. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union, EU-Erweiterung, Erweiterungsdoktrin, Gradualismus, Kopenhagener Kriterien, Ukraine, Moldau, Georgien, Westlicher Balkan, Gemeinsame Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik (GASP), Gemeinsame Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik (GSVP) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:283043&r=eec |