|
on European Economics |
Issue of 2024‒01‒22
eighteen papers chosen by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico |
By: | Eli Agba (CeReFiM - Center for Research in Finance and Management [UNamur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], NaXys - Namur Center for Complex Systems [Namur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur]); Hamza Bennani (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Jean-Yves Gnabo (CeReFiM - Center for Research in Finance and Management [UNamur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], NaXys - Namur Center for Complex Systems [Namur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur]) |
Abstract: | In this paper, we aim at explaining a specific type of heterogeneity in the euro area pertaining to the diverging responses of countries and sectors to the European Central Bank's Unconventional Monetary Policy. Equipped with stock markets indices of 17 sectors for each euro area country, we first preform an event-study analysis to assess the reaction of the markets. Next, we regress the responses on a set of country-specific drivers. Our main findings show that variables related to the nature of banking industry (e.g. cost-to-income, return on assets), macroeconomic environment (e.g. gross debt) and macroprudential policy all contribute to observe diverging responses to ECB's monetary policies. While some sectors and countries responded more negatively than positively to the policies, the Unconventional Monetary Policy impacts the markets positively on average. A policy implication is that the heterogeneous response calls for domestic structural reforms that should target the discrepancies in the banking and the macroeconomic environments across euro area countries. |
Keywords: | Event-study ordered probit heterogeneity cross-sector /cross-country UMP, Event-study, ordered probit, heterogeneity, cross-sector /cross-country, UMP |
Date: | 2022–03–28 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04202585&r=eec |
By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
Abstract: | We find expectations are more sensitive to economic growth than traditional wellbeing metrics. We examine Eurobarometer micro data from 1973-2023 on movements in life satisfaction along with data from 1995-2022 on five expectations variables on and individual’s life and their financial and job situations plus their views on the economic and employment situation of their country in the year ahead. These expectations start to decline several months before the onset of downturns with especially large drops for the Great Recession and Covid. Annual GDP growth is positively associated with these expectations variables while it is uncorrelated with life satisfaction. The unemployment rate and the CPI reduce both. We analyze data for 29 European countries to predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead using individuals’ fears of unemployment in the presence of country and year fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use firms' expectations of future employment, which are also predictive of what happens to unemployment three months later. Using our preferred model specification, we present out-of-sample predictions that track actual movements in unemployment rates closely over a period in which there were two major recessions and unemployment shifted by a factor of two. |
JEL: | J60 J64 J68 |
Date: | 2023–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32006&r=eec |
By: | Patrick Gruning (Latvijas Banka); Andrejs Zlobins (Latvijas Banka) |
Abstract: | Given the decades-high inflation, central banks are complementing conventional rate hikes with quantitative tightening (QT), i.e. a reduction of the sizeable asset holdings accumulated during the quantitative easing (QE) era. In this study, we employ empirical (proxy-SVAR) and structural (medium-scale NK DSGE) frameworks to study the macroeconomic implications of QT. Our empirical findings show that the impact of QT has been relatively muted in the US, suggesting asymmetric effects of QT compared to QE. This finding is corroborated by model simulations, calibrated to the post-pandemic high inflation environment. Nevertheless, QT can partly substitute conventional rate hikes by creating some deflationary pressure and requiring less aggressive conventional policy action. QT produces smaller effects in the euro area (EA) due to the smaller share of private bonds on the ECB’s balance sheet. However, a potential concern for QT in the EA is the proliferation of fragmentation risk. We empirically argue that the deployment of market-stabilisation QE can be used to stabilise sovereign spreads without creating considerable inflationary pressure in case QT leads to disorderly market dynamics. |
Keywords: | monetary policy, quantitative tightening, quantitative easing, proxy-SVAR, DSGE |
JEL: | C54 E31 E52 E58 G12 |
Date: | 2023–12–27 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202309&r=eec |
By: | Carnazza, Giovanni; Renström, Thomas I.; Spataro, Luca |
Abstract: | The EU has embarked on multiple initiatives reflecting its commitment to environmental enhancement and sustainable transitions. Notable among these are the European Green Deal and the NextGenerationEU recovery plan, both pivotal in fostering eco-friendly policies and sustainable practices within the region. Conversely, the fiscal rules within the EU, designed to manage budgetary deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios, may pose challenges to the implementation of fiscal measures targeted at achieving environmental quality objectives. These regulatory constraints potentially curtail the fiscal space available for policies aligned with the environmental goals set forth by the EU. To address this issue, using a panel of 27 European member countries observed annually from 1995 to 2021, we investigate the impact of two different indicators on the overall carbon intensity: on the one hand, the implicit tax rate on energy reduces environmental pollution; on the other hand, an increase in the stringency of the European fiscal framework and/or the debt-to-GDP ratio increase carbon intensity. From a policy point of view, our outcomes stress the importance of shaping national and European regulations to foster more sustainable environmental development. |
Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
Date: | 2023–12–24 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:339126&r=eec |
By: | NINDL Elisabeth (European Commission - JRC); CONFRARIA Hugo (European Commission - JRC); RENTOCCHINI Francesco (European Commission - JRC); NAPOLITANO Lorenzo (European Commission - JRC); GEORGAKAKI Aliki (European Commission - JRC); INCE Ela (European Commission - JRC); FAKO Peter (European Commission - JRC); TUEBKE Alexander (European Commission - JRC); GAVIGAN James (European Commission - JRC); HERNANDEZ GUEVARA Hector (European Commission - JRC); PINERO MIRA Pablo (European Commission - JRC); RUEDA CANTUCHE Jose (European Commission - JRC); BANACLOCHE SANCHEZ Santacruz (European Commission - JRC); DE PRATO Giuditta (European Commission - JRC); CALZA Elisa (European Commission - JRC) |
Abstract: | This is the 20th edition of ‘The EU Industrial Research & Development (R&D) Investment Scoreboard’. The European Commission issued the first edition of the Scoreboard in 2004 to monitor and analyse industrial R&D investment trends in the context of the EU’s 3% of GDP R&D investment policy target, which remains a key performance indicator of the EU’s long-term competitiveness. This report is structured in two parts. Part I provides an overview of the world's top 2 500 R&D investors, responsible for over three quarters of R&D performed by the business sector globally, based on the financial information in the firms’ latest published audited accounts. It analyses the main trends and benchmarks the EU’s top R&D investing companies against global competitors, and gives details on the EU’s top 1 000 R&D investing firms. For the first time, a panel of Scoreboard firms allows insights into structural R&D trends over the past 10 and 20 years. This sheds light on the strategic role played by R&D through the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Part II combines the Scoreboard data with other datasets to gain novel insights into the technological advancement of the companies. For example, as Scoreboard firms own two-thirds of the patents filed in the five largest patent offices. Characterising the patent portfolios of Scoreboard firms in automotive, advanced materials and artificial intelligence provides additional insights into the technological positioning of EU firms. |
Date: | 2023–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135576&r=eec |
By: | HUYGENS Dries (European Commission - JRC); FOSCHI Jacopo; CARO Dario (European Commission - JRC); PATINHA CALDEIRA Carla (European Commission - JRC); FARACA Giorgia (European Commission - JRC); FOSTER Gillian (European Commission - JRC); SOLIS Martyna (European Commission - JRC); MARSCHINSKI Robert (European Commission - JRC); NAPOLANO Loredana (European Commission - JRC); FRUERGAARD ASTRUP Thomas; TONINI Davide (European Commission - JRC) |
Abstract: | The EU strategy for sustainable and circular textiles envisages “a circular textiles ecosystem that has sufficient capacities for innovative fibre-to-fibre recycling, while the incineration and landfilling of textiles is reduced to the minimum”. The general objective of this study is to summarise the techno-scientific knowledge base of different recycling, recovery and disposal options for waste textiles. First, it is indicated that post-consumer textile waste is the largest waste fraction, and that annually more than 8 million tonnes used and waste textiles are incinerated or landfilled, a much higher share than re-use, preparing for re-use and recycling together. Textile waste recycling is limited and currently dominated by transforming apparel and home textiles into cleaning rags and insulation materials, but closed-loop recycling facilities are emerging in the EU, particularly for post-industrial textile waste. Second, the life cycle assessment and cost analysis indicated that re-use and preparing for re-use are the most cost-effective options and have the best environmental performance. Whereas recycling is associated to greater costs than incineration and landfilling, it commonly brings supplementary environmental savings. Third, economic and non-economic barriers to recycling, particularly closed-loop recycling were identified. The information provided in this report may contribute to informing policy design and implementation on textile waste management. |
Date: | 2023–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc134586&r=eec |
By: | BELTRAN MIRALLES Manuel (European Commission - JRC); GOURDON Thomas (European Commission - JRC); SEIGNEUR Isabelle (European Commission - JRC); ARRANZ PADILLA Maria (European Commission - JRC); PICKARD GARCIA Nicolas (European Commission - JRC) |
Abstract: | In its more common formulation in the European Union (EU) policy context, the ‘Do No Significant Harm’ (DNSH) principle aims to ensure that EU policies and programmes do not have a negative impact on the EU’s climate and environmental objectives. By doing this, the principle has transformed the ‘green oath’ from the European Green Deal into a reality applied by different EU initiatives. This study analyses the application of the DNSH principle in six EU instruments which have pioneered the use of the DNSH principle to integrate climate and environmental objectives in private finance and public funding: 1) the EU Taxonomy for sustainable activities; 2) the Recovery and Resilience Facility; 3) the European Regional Development Fund; 4) the Cohesion Fund; 5) the Just Transition Fund; and 6) the InvestEU Fund. The analysis maps the divergences in the way the DNSH principle is implemented across these EU instruments, identifying reasons that help to explain them. It also highlights existing interlinkages and commonalities in the application of the principle as well as the potential to build on the knowledge gained to develop common tools that could guide its implementation across EU instruments. Additionally, the implementation of the DNSH principle is starting to be applied in EU instruments extending beyond the current 2021-2027 policy cycle. In this context, the study suggests additional actions to take advantage of existing opportunities and to minimise potential risks. |
Date: | 2023–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135691&r=eec |
By: | DE NIGRIS Sarah (European Commission - JRC); KALPAKA Annita (European Commission - JRC); NEPELSKI Daniel (European Commission - JRC) |
Abstract: | The European Digital Innovation Hubs (EDIHs), established under the Digital Europe Programme, play a pivotal role in bolstering digitalisation across European businesses. There are 227 hubs, of which 151 are funded directly by the Digital Europe Programme. The EDIHs are widely distributed across 85% of European regions, covering almost 90% of the EU's working population. The EDIHs are formed of a diverse array of organisations, including private companies, research organisations, universities, and public sector entities. The services provided by EDIHs to SMEs and public sector organisations encompass a broad spectrum of technologies and sectors showcasing diversity in strategies and designs. The hubs demonstrate strong competencies in key technologies like Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and High-Performance Computing. |
Date: | 2023–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc134620&r=eec |
By: | Köppl-Turyna, Monika; Köppl, Stefan; Christopulos, Dimitris |
Abstract: | In this paper we analyze how different types of venture capital investments - private, public and indirect public - affect performance of "cleantech" start-ups in Europe. We hand collected a unique dataset on the institutional setting (public/indirect/private) of almost 15000 investors in Europe, which we combine with portfolio-company and deals data from Preqin to assess performance. Two results stand out: First, public venture capital does not underperform private venture capital in a broad crosscountry sample of European deals. This is a novel finding, as it doesn't confirm some previous findings in the literature that government-backed VCs underperform their private counterparts. We also find that there is no significant difference between direct and indirect government support of venture capital for cleantech investments. Second, GVCs perform well when they specialize in cleantech investments and are well connected within a network of other investors. |
Keywords: | venture capital, governmental venture capital, European Investment Fund, public policy, green technology, cleantech |
JEL: | G24 G28 H81 L26 D73 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ecoarp:280983&r=eec |
By: | Siedschlag, Iulia; Duran Vanegas, Juan |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp770&r=eec |
By: | SOLANO HERMOSILLA Gloria (European Commission - JRC); ANTONIOLI Federico (European Commission - JRC); CIAIAN Pavel (European Commission - JRC); PINEDO GIL Julia; FERNÁNDEZ CASAL Laura |
Abstract: | The European Green Deal and its farm-to-fork (F2F) strategy have made sustainability in the food system an EU policy priority. It aims to help the EU’s current food system transition towards a fairer, healthier and environmentally friendlier one while maintaining its economic viability. This report seeks to provide a comparative empirical assessment of sustainability-enhancing initiatives adopted by private operators in the EU food chain. The assessment is based on data collected through semi-structured interviews with 37 representatives from food chain operators, associations, and related organizations. In total, 314 sustainability initiatives were identified, highlighting operators' efforts to promote more sustainable food production and consumption processes. These initiatives primarily emphasize the economic dimension, followed by the environmental aspect, while the social/health dimension receives comparatively less attention. The results also indicate that market demand and supply requirements are the primary drivers for adopting sustainability initiatives. Conversely, the main barriers to adoption include the lack of recognition of sustainability efforts by consumers, insufficient public support, and unclear policies regarding sustainability. To foster the adoption of sustainability initiatives, respondents identified the need for increased incentives, funding for enhanced sustainable solutions, and government technical support as crucial catalysts. |
Date: | 2023–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc129894&r=eec |
By: | Jennifer Feichtmayer; Regina T. Riphahn |
Abstract: | We study the intergenerational transmission of welfare benefit receipt in Germany. We first describe the correlation between welfare receipt experienced in the parental household and subsequent own welfare receipt of young adults. In a second step, we investigate whether the observed correlations reflect causal effects of past welfare experience. We use family fixed effects estimations and Gottschalk’s (1996) approach and take advantage of the long-running German Socio-Economic Panel Survey to contribute to a sparse literature. We find strong positive correlations between parental and own welfare receipt. These patterns do, however, not persist after controlling for unobserved heterogeneities. Therefore, our results suggest that the strong intergenerational correlation of welfare benefit receipt is determined by family background rather than by the experience of parental welfare benefit receipt. |
Keywords: | welfare, social assistance, intergenerational mobility, causal effect, family fixed effects, Gottschalk estimator |
JEL: | I32 I38 J62 C36 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10835&r=eec |
By: | Luis Bouza García; Alvaro Oleart |
Abstract: | The growing influence of social media platforms, and the disinformation that circulates in them, has transformed the public spheres. How to deal with disinformation is an open normative, empirical and political question in contemporary democracies. In this article, we outline an agenda on the institutional strategies pursued in the European Union (EU), the normative understandings of the public sphere that such strategies imply, and the analytical challenges to undertake this line of inquiry. We argue that there is an emerging competition in the EU field of disinformation – constructed by actors coming from different pre-existing fields, such as journalism or foreign policy – not only to define what is ‘true’ from what is ‘fake’, but also to determine the sort of the public sphere and democracy we ought to strive for. This perspective allows us to anticipate which actors might be empowered (or disempowered) depending on how disinformation is addressed in regulatory terms. |
Keywords: | Big Tech; disinformation; European Union; public policy; public sphere |
Date: | 2023–12–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/365881&r=eec |
By: | Aleksandar Vasilev (Lincoln International Business School, UK) |
Abstract: | We introduce an informal sector into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We investigate the quantitative importance of the presence of a grey economy for the cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. We find that incorporating an informal sector improves the model fit against data, as compared to the standard RBC model, and thus this sector is an important ingredient that needs to be considered by researchers interested in business cycle-, or public finance issues. |
Keywords: | business cycles, informal sector, Bulgaria |
JEL: | E24 E32 |
Date: | 2024–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2024-01&r=eec |
By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Thierry Pouch (Chambres d’agriculture France - Paris, URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne) |
Abstract: | World trade in agricultural and agri-food products has been growing steadily for several decades under the influence of increasing food demand, particularly in Asia and Africa, and an unequal territorial distribution of agronomic and productive potential. With a trade balance of 30.6 billion euros in 2022, the European Union (EU-27) has become a major player in this trade. Using information from two databases (Baci and Comext), this article presents an analysis of the main trade dynamics observed in this sector over a 20-year period (2000 to 2021). |
Abstract: | Le commerce mondial des produits agricoles et agroalimentaires connait un développement soutenu depuis plusieurs décennies sous l'influence d'une demande alimentaire en croissance, notamment en Asie et en Afrique, et d'une répartition territoriale inégale des potentiels agronomiques et productifs. Avec un solde commercial de 30, 6 milliards d'euros en 2022, l'Union européenne (UE-27) est devenue un acteur majeur de ce commerce. En utilisant les informations issues de deux bases de données (Baci et Comext), cet article présente une analyse des principales dynamiques commerciales observées dans ce secteur sur une période de 20 ans (2000 à 2021). |
Keywords: | Agri-food trade, Competitiveness, European Union, France, Commerce agroalimentaire, Compétitivité, Union européenne |
Date: | 2023–12–14 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04353405&r=eec |
By: | Egan, Paul; Bergin, Adele; O'Toole, Conor |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp759&r=eec |
By: | International Monetary Fund |
Abstract: | The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted a focused review of insurance regulation and supervision in Belgium. This technical note (TN) provides an update on the insurance sector and highlights risks and vulnerabilities. It analyzes key aspects of regulatory and supervisory oversight: supervisor; the solvency framework; supervision (micro and macro); changes in control and portfolio transfer, reinsurance; conduct of business and group supervision and supervisory co-operation and co-ordination.2 Belgium has adopted a twin peaks model of regulatory oversight and supervision. The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) is responsible for prudential supervision at both a micro and macro level whilst the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA) is mandated with conduct of business supervision. The analysis focuses on supervision within the scope of the NBB’s and the FSMA’s mandates. The TN comments on progress in respect of the implementation of recommendations made by the previous FSAP and offers further recommendations to strengthen the regulatory and supervisory regime. |
Date: | 2023–12–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/389&r=eec |
By: | Marie Lassalas (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Hervé Guyomard (SDAR Bretagne Normandie - Services déconcentrés d'appui à la recherche Bretagne-Normandie - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Cécile Détang-Dessendre (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Pierre P. Dupraz (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
Abstract: | This paper assesses the environmental ambition of the implementation of the 2023-2027 Common Agricultural Policy in France. Since conditionality and agri-environment-climate measures are marginally improved relative to the previous policy, attention is focused on the new environmental instrument of the eco-scheme. Results suggest low environmental progress since almost all French farms would reach the standard level of the scheme by one of the three access paths and 85% of them would reach the superior level with unchanged farming practices. The percentage of farms at the superior level would be lower for farms specialized in annual crops than for cattle farms. We also show that the premium difference of €20 per hectare between the standard and superior level is probably insufficient for farms specialized in cereals, oilseeds and protein crops to offset the additional cost of the change in farm practices required to move from the standard to the superior level. |
Abstract: | Cet article évalue l'ambition environnementale de la mise en œuvre de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) en France sur la période 2023-2027. La conditionnalité et les mesures agro-environnementales et climatiques étant marginalement améliorées par rapport à la politique précédente, l'attention est portée ici sur le nouvel instrument environnemental qu'est l'éco-régime. Les résultats suggèrent de faibles progrès en matière d'environnement, puisque la quasi-totalité des exploitations françaises atteindraient le niveau standard du régime par l'une des trois voies d'accès et que 85 % d'entre elles atteindraient le niveau supérieur à pratiques agricoles inchangées. Le pourcentage d'exploitations atteignant le niveau supérieur serait plus faible pour les exploitations spécialisées dans les cultures annuelles que pour les exploitations bovines. Nous montrons également que la différence de prime de 20 euros par hectare entre le niveau standard et le niveau supérieur est insuffisante pour compenser le coût supplémentaire (pour les exploitations spécialisées en céréales, oléagineux et protéagineux) du changement de pratiques agricoles nécessaire pour passer du niveau standard au niveau supérieur. |
Keywords: | Common Agricultural Policy, France, Eco-scheme, Environment, Farms, FADN, Politique agricole commune, Eco-régime, Environnement, Exploitations agricoles, RICA |
Date: | 2023–12–14 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04353356&r=eec |