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on European Economics |
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Issue of 2015‒11‒15
twenty-one papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Stefan Kawalec (Capital Strategy) |
| Abstract: | In 2014, the Eurozone, with its huge current account surplus, was a major source of global economic imbalances. This phenomenon could last for a long time. Monetary expansion, which leads to currency depreciation, is the only macroeconomic tool available to the European Central Bank (ECB) to boost the competitiveness of struggling southern economies vis-à-vis countries outside the Eurozone. With the current economic imbalances within the Eurozone, the elimination the Eurozone’s current account surplus through appreciation of the euro would aggravate economic conditions in struggling member countries and could be politically explosive. Some observers hope that the Eurozone’s internal imbalances can be reduced by more expansionary policies in Germany or, in the future, by wealth transfers to be enabled when the fiscal and political union materializes. Both hopes are unjustified. A huge Eurozone current account surplus is likely to persist, and this will lead to tensions with the US and other trade partners. It could especially undermine the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). This contradicts a popular view that the European Union needs a single currency to operate successfully in the world economy among big players like the US, China and India. In fact, if the Eurozone countries had (or returned to) their national currencies, linked through adjustable currency bands as proposed in Kawalec and Pytlarczyk (2013 a, 2013 b), trade and current account deficits in countries in crisis could be eliminated through balancing imbalances among present Eurozone members, without the necessity to generate a huge surplus by the Eurozone as a whole. However, a single currency forces the Eurozone to try to desperately generate trade and current account surpluses, which is likely to spark currency wars with its main economic partners. This would impede international trade and diminish the benefits that Europe could achieve from international cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone, Current Account, Euro, Economic Imbalance, National Currencies, Internal Devaluation. |
| JEL: | E66 F32 F33 F36 F35 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ais:wpaper:1509&r=eec |
| By: | Altavilla, Carlo; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Nicoletti, Giulio |
| Abstract: | We use bank-level information on lending practices from the euro area Bank Lending Survey to construct a new indicator of loans’ supply tightening controlling for both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Embedding this information as external instrument in a Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR), we find that tighter bank loan supply to non-financial corporations leads to a protracted contraction in credit volumes and higher bank lending spreads. This fosters firms’ incentives to substitute bank loans with market finance, producing a significant increase in debt securities issuance and higher bond spreads. We also show that loans’ tightening shocks explain a large fraction of the contraction in real activity and the widening of credit spreads especially over the recession which followed the euro area sovereign debt crisis. JEL Classification: E51, E44, C32 |
| Keywords: | Bank Lending Survey, Credit Supply, External Instruments, Lending standards |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151861&r=eec |
| By: | Heather D. Gibson; Stephen G. Hall; George S. Tavlas |
| Abstract: | We quantify the linkages among banks’ equity performance and indicators of sovereign stress by using panel GMM to estimate a three-equation system that examines the impact of sovereign stress, as reflected in both sovereign spreads and sovereign ratings, on bank share prices. We use data for a panel of five euro-area stressed countries. Our findings indicate that a long-run recursive relationship between sovereigns and banks operated during the euro-area crisis. Specifically, for the five crisis countries considered shocks to sovereign spreads fed-through to sovereign ratings, which affected commercial banks’ equity-prices. Our results also point to the importance of using levels of equity prices -- rather than rates of return -- in measuring banks’ performance. The use of levels allows us to derive the determinants of long-run equity prices. |
| Keywords: | euro-area financial crisis, sovereign-bank linkages, banks’ performance, banking stability. |
| JEL: | E3 G01 G14 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:15/25&r=eec |
| By: | Igor Lebrun |
| Abstract: | The uncertainty surrounding the estimates of potential output has risen in the euro area countries since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Moreover, potential growth in the euro area has fallen since 2009. In this working paper we examine both phenomena for Belgium based on potential GDP estimates produced by the Federal Planning Bureau. We also analyse the evolution of the three main underlying determinants of potential growth, namely the contribution of labour, capital and total factor productivity. |
| JEL: | C5 E1 O47 |
| Date: | 2015–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1504&r=eec |
| By: | De Santis, Roberto A.; Legrenzi, Gabriella; Milas, Costas |
| Abstract: | We introduce a non-linear model to study the adjustment of fiscal policy variables in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain over the last 50 years, based on endogenously estimated budget deficit-to-GDP thresholds, which vary with fiscal disequilibria, the economic cycle and financial market conditions. We find that the budget deficit-to-GDP thresholds were rather high for Greece and Portugal particularly after 1999 and that the fiscal adjustments in "good" times were very different from the adjustments that took place in "bad" times. We also found that only in Spain fiscal deficits were reduced in expansionary times. Finally, we provide evidence that, under financial market pressure, fiscal authorities relaxed the fiscal deficit-to-GDP threshold for the adjustment in Ireland and Spain and reduced such threshold for the adjustment in Portugal. JEL Classification: H63, H20, H60, C22 |
| Keywords: | budgetary disequilibria, euro periphery, European debt crisis, fiscal adjustments, non-linear models |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151858&r=eec |
| By: | Aitor Erce (European Stability Mechanism) |
| Abstract: | Measures of sovereign and bank risk show occasional bouts of increased correlation, setting the stage for vicious and virtuous feedback loops. This paper models the macroeconomic phenomena underlying such bouts using CDS data for 10 euro area countries. The results show that sovereign risk feeds back into bank risk more strongly than vice versa. Countries with sovereigns that are more indebted or where banks have a larger exposure to their own sovereign, suffer larger feedback loop effects from sovereign risk into bank risk. In the opposite direction, in countries where banks fund their activities with more foreign credit and support larger levels of non-performing loans, the feedback from bank risk into sovereign risk is stronger. According to model estimates, financial rescue operations can increase feedback effects from bank risk into sovereign risk. These results can be useful for the official sector when deciding on the form of financial rescues. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Risk, Bank Risk, Feedback Loops, Balance Sheet Exposure, Leverage |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 H63 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:wpaper:1&r=eec |
| By: | Guillaume Arnould (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS, LABEX Refi - ESCP Europe); Salim Dehmej (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS, LABEX Refi - ESCP Europe) |
| Abstract: | The results of the Comprehensive Assessment (CA) conducted by the ECB seem to attest the soundness of the European banking system since only 8 of 130 assessed banks still need to raise €6 billion. However it would be a mistake to conclude that non failing banks are completely healthy. Using data provided by the ECB and the ECB and the EBA after the CA, we assess the capital shortfalls for each banks by considering the transitional arrangements, an implementation of Basel III sovereign debt requirements and an enhancement of the leverage ratio. In addition we show, that if the CA has been a very complex exercise, it is not the best lens through which the soundness of the eurozone banking system should be evaluated. The assumptions used for the Asset Quality Review (AQR) and the stress-tests lead to week scenarios and requirements that undermine the reliability of the results. Finally we show that the low profitability, the massive dividend distribution and the incurred fines, give rise to concern on the ability of eurozone banks to meet the incoming capital requirements. |
| Keywords: | Basel III,Financial stability,stress tests,banking,financial regulation |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01222489&r=eec |
| By: | Bacchetta, Philippe; Merrouche, Ouarda |
| Abstract: | Despite international financial disintegration, we document a dramatic increase in dollar borrowing among leveraged Eurozone corporates during the Great Financial Crisis. Using loan-level data, we trace this increase to the twin crisis in the credit market and in funding markets. The reduction in the supply of credit by Eurozone banks caused riskier borrowers to shift to foreign banks, in particular US banks. The coincident rise in the relative cost of euro wholesale funding and the disruptions in the FX swap market caused a rise in dollar borrowing from US banks, especially for firms in export-oriented sectors. Although global bank lending is often reported to amplify the international credit cycle, we show that foreign banking acted as a shock absorber that weathered the real consequences of the credit crunch in Europe. |
| Keywords: | corporate debt; credit crunch; foreign banks; money market |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G30 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10927&r=eec |
| By: | Verdugo, Gregory (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | We study the response of real wages to the business cycle in eight major Eurozone countries before and during the Great Recession. Average real wages are found to be acyclical, but this reflects, in large part, the effect of changes in the composition of the labour force related to unemployment variations over the cycle. Using longitudinal micro data from the ECHP and SILC panels to control for composition effects, we estimate the elasticities of real wage growth to unemployment increases between −0.6 and −1 over the period 1994-2011. Composition effects have been particularly large since 2008, and they explain most of the stagnation or increase in the average wage observed in some countries from 2008 to 2011. In contrast, at a constant labour force composition in terms of education and experience, the figures indicate a significant decrease in average wages during the downturn, particularly in countries most affected by the crisis. Overall, there is no evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity during the Great recession in most countries in our sample. |
| Keywords: | wage cyclicality, wage rigidity, Great Recession, Eurozone |
| JEL: | J30 E32 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9469&r=eec |
| By: | Antonello D’Agostino (ESM) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how well consumer confidence predicts households future consumption expenditure. Our findings document considerable variety in the degree to which confidence measures accurately forecast consumption across selected euro area countries and periods. First, we explore the leading role of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption growth. We find that the consumer confidence index improves forecasts of household consumption expenditure appreciably during times of financial distress, especially in Italy and Portugal. Further, we show that the financial sub-index of consumer confidence provides more nuanced information than the aggregate index. Indeed, over the past few years, expectations about future personal financial situations proved particularly helpful in forecasting total consumption expenditure in France, Italy and Portugal. For Germany, in contrast, no measures of confidence provide information beyond what is supplied by other economic indicators for forecasting household consumption. Finally, we advance some evidence to support the idea that changes in consumer confidence are an independent driver of economic fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Expectations; Survey Data; Consumption Forecast; Confidence Shocks; Economic Fluctuations |
| JEL: | C32 E24 E32 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:wpaper:2&r=eec |
| By: | Casado, Jose Maria; Fernandez, Cristina; Jimeno, Juan F. |
| Abstract: | We measure the contribution of worker flows across employment, unemployment, and non-participation to the change in unemployment in eleven EU countries during the period 2006-2012, paying special attention to which socio-demographic groups in each of the countries were mostly affected by job creation and job destruction during the crisis. We find that age, to a larger extent than educational attainments, is the main determinant of flows from employment into unemployment, particularly in those countries where unemployment increased by most. Secondly, we highlight some institutional features of the labour market (employment protection legislation, unemployment insurance, and the incidence of active labor market policies) that help to explain the cross-country differences in flows between employment and unemployment and in their socio-demographic composition. Finally, we examine if the crisis has led to some employment reallocation across sectors, finding that, so far, there is no clear evidence in favor of cleansing effects. JEL Classification: J6, E24, C25 |
| Keywords: | Great Recession, Labour Flows, Labour Market Institutions, Unemployment |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151862&r=eec |
| By: | Helen Louri (Athens University of Economics and Business and London School of Economics (EI/HO)); Petros M. Migiakis (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | In the present paper we study the determinants of the margins paid by euro-area non-financial corporations (NFCs) for their bank loans on top of the rates they earn for their deposits (bank lending margins). We use panel VAR techniques, in order to test for causality relationships and produce impulse response functions for eleven euro-area countries from 2003:1 to 2014:12. The countries are separated to two groups (distressed and non-distressed), in order to examine for heterogeneities in the relationships between lending margins, the period is also separated with reference to the peak of the global financial crisis (before and after the collapse of Lehman in September 2008). We find that significant heterogeneities existed even before the global financial crisis and remained in its aftermath, although the magnitude and the direction of the effects exercised by the explanatory variables have changed. Furthermore, apart from finding that market concentration and the prudence of banks’ management increase the lending margins NFCs pay for their loans, there is evidence of substitution effects between financing obtained from banks and corporate bond markets. The provision of ample liquidity from the ECB, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis was found to be effective only for the core countries, suggesting that further policy actions are needed in order to reduce the fragmentation of bank lending and promote financial integration to the benefit of the euro-area real economy. |
| Keywords: | bank lending margins; euro area; financial fragmentation; global financial crisis; European Central Bank |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E58 F36 F42 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:198&r=eec |
| By: | Gül Ertan Özgüzer (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics); Ayla Ogus Binatli (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests, in the context of the EU countries, the evidence presented by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) that economic complexity indicator is a good predictor of economic growth. Our results suggest that a group of countries in the EU with an economic complexity exceeding a certain threshold tends to converge to the levels of income corresponding to their measured complexity. On the other hand, current account deficits in interaction with economic complexity have important eects on growth for a second group of countries with lower levels of complexity. We also find that income convergence is faster within the first group. Therefore, we argue that convergence is much faster for countries whose economic complexity exceeds certain a threshold. |
| Keywords: | economic complexity, growth, income convergence, European Union,heterogeneity |
| JEL: | O11 O52 F43 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:1503&r=eec |
| By: | Kristel Jacquier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using a unique database combining Eurobarometer surveys from 2004 to 2014 trust is used as a proxy for the value people give to the EU response to the crisis. The focus is on the euro zone and the sovereign debt crisis which started in November 2009. Our empirical analysis supports the theory that citizens blame the EU for the poor macroeconomic performances in the euro area. We rely on a bivariate probit model to document the relationship between national government trust and EU trust. We find that domestic macroeconomic conditions influence both level of government. However, a deeper analysis suggests that the proximity with the average Euro Zone economic performances increases trust in the European Union. |
| Keywords: | European integration,survey research,debt crisis |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01222511&r=eec |
| By: | Heather D. Gibson; Stephen G. Hall; George S. Tavlas |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the ECB’s Securities Market Program (SMP) and the ECB’s two Covered Bond Purchase Programs (CBPPs) on sovereign bond spreads and covered-bond prices, respectively, for five euro-area stressed countries -- Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Our data are monthly and cover the period from 2004M01 through 2014M07. In contrast to previous studies, we use actual, confidential, intervention data. Our results indicate that the respective asset purchase programs reduced sovereign spreads and raised covered bond prices. The quantitative effects of the programs were modest in magnitude, but nevertheless significant. We also provide a simple theoretical model that explains why official asset purchases can reduce a country’s default-risk spreads. |
| Keywords: | Monetary-policy effectiveness, ECB’s asset purchase programs, euro-area crisis. |
| JEL: | E43 E51 E52 E63 F33 F41 G01 G12 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:15/24&r=eec |
| By: | Cugnasca, Alessandro; Rother, Philipp |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of fiscal consolidation on economic growth in European Union countries, between 2004 and 2013. We construct a new dataset of exogenous fiscal adjustments, relying on legally binding recommendations issued to countries under Excessive Deficit Procedure, and we identify exogenous policy changes by using this dataset as instrumental variable in a GMM framework. We estimate the size of the fiscal multiplier both in a linear setting as well as in a state-dependent setting, considering four different circumstances: the state of the business cycle, the degree of openness to trade, the composition of the fiscal adjustment and the presence of a stressed credit market, as manifested by an impaired monetary policy transmission. We find that the size of the multiplier varies significantly under the various states: the distribution of multipliers is quite asymmetric, and a few consolidation episodes yield multipliers above one. We find that the composition of the fiscal adjustments is crucial in containing the output cost of consolidation, and in determining its persistence. Fiscal adjustments made via cuts to transfers and subsidies, or via tax increases, are usually associated with multipliers at or below unity, even when the economy is in recession. We also find evidence of confidence effects when consolidation is made under stressed credit markets and high interest rates. In a small number of episodes, involving open economies benefitting from confidence effects, we find that fiscal adjustments seem to be expansionary. JEL Classification: C33, E62 |
| Keywords: | fiscal multiplier, fiscal policy and growth, panel data |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151863&r=eec |
| By: | Bea Cantillon; Sarah Marchal; Chris Luigjes |
| Abstract: | Social Europe is under lingering construction. Not only does the EU indirectly (and increasingly) impact on national social policies, the Union itself is slowly evolving towards more social governance as has become apparent with the inclusion of social indicators in the European Semester. This notwithstanding, apart from the coordination of social security rights for mobile workers, anti-discrimination legislation, and health and safety standards at work, social policy remains an exclusive national competence. Moreover, it is guaranteed to remain so through the legal subsidiarity principle. As a consequence, EU social policy has to a large extent been limited to soft governance initiatives that aim to influence national policies in order to achieve commonly agreed social goals. These goals are defined as social outcomes, rather than the means through which they are achieved, a governance model known as “second order output governance” (Vandenbroucke, Cantillon, Van Mechelen, Goedemé, & Van Lancker, 2013). However, over the past decades, despite the ambitious Lisbon and EU2020 social targets, many EU Member States have failed to make progress in fighting poverty. Since the crisis the picture has become truly negative, not in the least due to strong diverging trends within the Union. Meanwhile, the indirect influence of the EU on national social policies has increased. This begs the question whether a more performant EU level involvement in the field of social policy is conceivable, within the constraints set by the European Treaties. In this paper, we argue that European minimum standards are the place to start. Thereby, a broad approach should be taken, including principles for minimum social security and minimum wages. To this end we believe that time has come for a modest shift to “second order input governance”. More in particular, we propose to include policy indicators regarding minimum income protection sensu lato, in the recently revised EU monitoring process of the European Semester. We assess the current (im)balances in national minimum income packages, and discuss in depth the potential value of including the indicators in a structured EU monitoring, as well as their main drawbacks and limitations. |
| Keywords: | Social Europe, minimum income protection, EU, social policy, social floor |
| JEL: | I38 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1520&r=eec |
| By: | Cimadomo, Jacopo; D'Agostino, Antonello |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility which allows for estimation on data sampled at different frequencies. Our contribution is twofold. First, we extend the methodology developed by Cogley and Sargent (2005), and Primiceri (2005), to a mixed-frequency setting. In particular, our approach allows for the inclusion of two different categories of variables (high-frequency and low-frequency) into the same time varying model. Second, we use this model to study the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in Italy over the 1988Q4-2013Q3 period. Italy - as well as most other euro area economies - is characterised by short quarterly time series for fiscal variables, whereas annual data are generally available for a longer sample before 1999. Our results show that the proposed time-varying mixed-frequency model improves on the performance of a simple linear interpolation model in generating the true path of the missing observations. Second, our empirical analysis suggests that government spending shocks tend to have positive effects on output in Italy. The fiscal multiplier, which is maximized at the one year horizon, follows a U-shape over the sample considered: it peaks at around 1.5 at the beginning of the sample, it then stabilizes between 0.8 and 0.9 from the mid-1990s to the late 2000s, before rising again to above unity during of the recent crisis. JEL Classification: C32, E62, H30, H50 |
| Keywords: | government spending multiplier, mixed-frequency data, time variation |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151856&r=eec |
| By: | Homar, Timotej; Kick, Heinrich; Salleo, Carmelo |
| Abstract: | Forbearance is a practice of granting concessions to troubled borrowers, typically in the form of prolongation of maturity or refinancing of the loan. While economically useful in some circumstances, it can be used by banks in order to reduce the need for provisions and conceal potential losses. If forbearance is widespread in the banking system, it may result in systemic risk, increasing uncertainty about the quality of banks’ assets and undermining trust in the banking sector’s solvency. This paper provides the first empirical analysis of forbearance in Europe, using the adjustment of nonperforming exposures due to the AQR and the associated increase in required provisions as measures of forbearance. Our results highlight weak macro-economic conditions, lax bank supervision and individual bank weakness as the key factors. JEL Classification: G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | asset quality review, forbearance, nonperforming loans, zombie lending |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151860&r=eec |
| By: | Fiordelisi, Franco; Mare, Davide Salvatore; Molyneux, Philip |
| Abstract: | What is the relationship between bank fragility and competition during a period of market turmoil? Does market power in European banking involve extra-gains after discounting for the cost of government intervention? We answer these questions in the context of Eurozone banking over 2005-2012 and show that greater market power increases bank stability implying aggregate extra-gains of 57% of EU12 gross domestic product for the banking sector after discounting for the costs associated with government intervention. The negative influence of competition on bank stability is non-monotonic and reverses for lower degrees of competition. Capital injections, guarantees and asset relief measures elicit greater bank soundness. |
| Keywords: | Bank Stability, Prudential Regulation, Competition, Global Financial Crisis, European Banking Union, Government Bailouts |
| JEL: | C23 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67473&r=eec |
| By: | Dimitris Papageorgiou (Bank of Greece); Evangelia Vourvachaki (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of product and labour market structural reforms and the effects of their joint implementation with alternative debt consolidation strategies. The set-up is a DSGE model calibrated for the Greek economy. The results show that structural reforms produce important long-run GDP gains that materialize earlier, the faster the reforms are implemented. When implemented jointly with fiscal consolidations, structural reforms may amplify the short-run costs of fiscal tightening. The GDP dynamics depend on the fiscal instrument used for public debt consolidation. In the long run, however, there are complementarity gains irrespective of the fiscal instrument used. |
| Keywords: | Structural reforms; Debt consolidation; Small open economy; General equilibrium model |
| JEL: | E27 E62 O4 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:197&r=eec |