nep-eec New Economics Papers
on European Economics
Issue of 2008‒07‒14
28 papers chosen by
Giuseppe Marotta
University of Modena and Reggio Emilia

  1. European social model(s) and social Europe By Catherine Mathieu; Henri Sterdyniak
  2. Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area By FÈVE, Patrick; MATHERON, Julien; SAHUC, Jean-Guillaume
  3. Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations By Paloviita, Maritta
  4. Labor Market Policies, Institutions and Employment Rates in the EU-27 By Rovelli, Riccardo; Bruno, Randolph Luca
  5. Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence By Fourçans, André; Vranceanu, Radu
  6. Are long-run inflation expectations anchored more firmly in the Euro area than in the United States? By Meredith J. Beechey; Benjamin K. Johannsen; Andrew T. Levin
  7. Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pac By Jerome Creel; Francesco Saraceno
  8. Skill gaps in the EU: role for education and training policies By Bert Minne; Marc van der Steeg; Dinand Webbink
  9. Ownership concentration and market discipline in European banking: Good monitoring but bad influence? By Tristan AUVRAY (LEREPS-GRES); Olivier BROSSARD (LEREPS-GRES)
  10. Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries By Martin, John P.; Whitehouse, Edward
  11. Job Protection Legislation and Productivity Growth in OECD Countries By Bassanini, Andrea; Nunziata, Luca; Venn, Danielle
  12. Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and the euro area : How important is the recent period By Sandrine Levasseur
  13. Household Membership Decisions of Adult Children By Chiuri, Maria Concetta; Del Boca, Daniela
  14. Short-Run Distributional Effects of Public Education Transfers to Tertiary Education Students in Seven European Countries By Callan, Tim; Smeeding, Tim; Tsakloglou, Panos
  15. The East-West migration in Europe: skill levels of migrants and their effects on the european labour market By Massimiliano Serati; Michela Martinoia
  16. Supply and demand for European accounting research. Evidence from EAA congresses By Cazavan-Jeny, Anne; Jeanjean, Thomas
  17. International spillovers of domestic reforms By Arjan Lejour; Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
  18. The Rise in Obesity across the Atlantic: An Economic Perspective By Brunello, Giorgio; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna
  19. Economic Space Trajectory through Different Regional Growth Models By Lo Cascio, Martino; Bagarani, Massimo; Zampino, Simona
  20. Are Pension Savings sufficient? Perceptions and Expectations of American and Dutch Workers By Dalen, H.P. van; Henkens, K.; Hershey, D.A.
  21. L’effet pro-concurrentiel de l’intégration européenne : une analyse de l’évolution des taux de marge dans les industries manufacturières françaises By Flora Bellone; Patrick Musso; Lionel Nesta; Frédéric Warzynski
  22. Fuel Consumption, Economic Determinants and Policy Implications for Road Transport in Spain By Rosa M. González-Marrero; Rosa M. Lorenzo-Alegría; Gustavo A. Marrero
  23. North by Northwest: What’s Wrong with the French Model and How Can the Nordic Model Help By Jean-Paul Fitoussi; Eloi Laurent
  24. Examining the Gender Wealth Gap in Germany By Sierminska, Eva; Frick, Joachim R.; Grabka, Markus M.
  25. Déjà Vu? Short-Term Training in Germany 1980–1992 and 2000–2003 By Fitzenberger, Bernd; Orlyanskaya, Olga; Osikominu, Aderonke; Waller, Marie
  26. A Note on Risk Aversion and Labour Market Outcomes: Further Evidence from German Survey Data By Pfeifer, Christian
  27. The Impact of Immigration on Election Outcomes in Danish Municipalities By Gerdes, Christer; Wadensjö, Eskil
  28. The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands By Alex Armstrong; Nick Draper; Ed Westerhout

  1. By: Catherine Mathieu (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques); Henri Sterdyniak (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
    Date: 2008
  2. By: FÈVE, Patrick; MATHERON, Julien; SAHUC, Jean-Guillaume
    Date: 2008–06
  3. By: Paloviita, Maritta (Bank of Finland Research)
    Abstract: This paper examines euro area inflation dynamics by estimating open economy New Keynesian Phillips curves based on the assumption that all imports are intermediate goods. Instead of imposing rational expectations a priori, Consensus Economics survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to proxy inflation expectations. The results suggest that, compared with a closed economy New Keynesian Phillips curve, euro area inflation dynamics are better captured by the open economy specification. Moreover, in the open economy context, and even if we allow for persistence in expectations, the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve is needed in order to capture the euro area inflation process properly. We also provide some evidence that in recent years of low and stable inflation, euro area inflation dynamics have become more forward-looking and the link between inflation and domestic demand has weakened (ie the euro area Phillips curve has flattened). On the other hand, in low-inflation euro area countries the inflation process seems to have been more forward-looking already since the early 1980s.
    Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips curve; open economy; expectations; euro area
    JEL: C52 E31 F41
    Date: 2008–06–25
  4. By: Rovelli, Riccardo (University of Bologna); Bruno, Randolph Luca (University of Bologna)
    Abstract: We compare labor market policies, institutions and outcomes for the EU member states, for the period 2000-2005. We document the main differences in Labor Market Policies across EU members, including new member states after 2004. We focus on indicators of policy generosity (expenditures relative to GDP) and relate these and other policy indicators to indicators of labor market outcomes and performance. Our results show that, on a cross-country basis, higher rates of employment are in general associated with: (i) higher expenditures on labor market policies, especially on active policies for countries with a high pro-work attitude; (ii) a lower degree of rigidity in labor market institutions and in product market regulation.
    Keywords: labor market policies, labor market outcomes, European social models
    JEL: J08 J38 J68
    Date: 2008–05
  5. By: Fourçans, André (ESSEC Business School); Vranceanu, Radu (ESSEC Business School)
    Abstract: The ECB is the only major central bank that still emphasizes the role of money in monetary policy management. In this paper, we bring some support to this approach. Taking into account Euro area data from the period between 1999 and 2007, we demonstrate that a steady 10 per cent increase in M3 may result in an inflation rate of approximately 2½ percentage points. A negative output gap would have a short term offsetting effect, and vice versa.
    Keywords: ECB; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Money
    JEL: E31 E51 E58
    Date: 2008–05
  6. By: Meredith J. Beechey; Benjamin K. Johannsen; Andrew T. Levin
    Abstract: This paper compares the recent evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well-anchored in both economies, but also reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of U.S. inflation. Daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads--which gauge compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk--also suggest that long-run inflation expectations are more firmly anchored in the euro area than in the United States. In particular, surprises in macroeconomic data releases have significant effects on U.S. forward inflation compensation, even at long horizons, whereas macroeconomic news only influences euro area inflation compensation at short horizons.
    Date: 2008
  7. By: Jerome Creel (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques; ESCP-EAP); Francesco Saraceno (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
    Abstract: This paper describes recent trends on the efficiency of stabilisers in the European Union. Using both macro evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of budget deficit to economic activity, and micro evidence on the tax and expenditure profiles, we conclude, in agreement with the recent literature, that the importance of automatic stabilisation has decreased. After remarking that this trend is contradictory with the current economic institutions of Europe relying exclusively on automatic stabilisation for the conduct of fiscal policy, we argue that increasing flexibility, one alternative way to reduce cyclical fluctuations, does not seem a viable path. The paper concludes defending the appropriateness of discretionary fiscal policy. We argue by means of a simple model that the theoretical arguments against its use are not conclusive, and we describe a recent stream of literature, based on structural VAR models, that concludes rather robustly for the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy in the short and long run.
    Keywords: Automatic stabilisers, progressivity, unemployment benefits, discretionary fiscal policy, European fiscal institutions
    JEL: E60 H20 H30 H60
    Date: 2008
  8. By: Bert Minne; Marc van der Steeg; Dinand Webbink
    Abstract: Skill gaps are widely seen as a problem that lowers aggregate productivity growth. A question for the European Commission is whether and how governments should take action with education and training policies to reduce skill gaps and make Europe the best performing region in the world. European citizens can best decide for themselves on the type of education. Distribution of information on occupation prospects is effective to influence their choice of education. Moreover, it is important that the education system is sufficiently flexible to absorb unexpected shocks in skill needs of employees. Policies stimulating education targeted at government-assigned sectors are risky policies. Intensification of general education at the cost of specific education, and intensification of training of employees find little support.
    Keywords: Skill gaps; education and training policy; market failures
    JEL: I28 J24
    Date: 2008–04
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of banks’ ownership concentration on the effectiveness of shareholders’ market discipline. More precisely, we first assess whether the ability of the distance to default to predict banks’ financial distress is affected by the level of ownership concentration (“monitoring” hypothesis). We also assess whether banks’ future financial situation is directly affected by ownership concentration (“influence” hypothesis). Our econometric estimates are conducted on a panel of 77 European banks observed between the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2005. We find that ownership dispersion reduces the predictive power of the distance to default. The data collected come from three sources: Bankscope, Datastream and Thomson One Banker Ownership. The econometric methodology is based on simple pooled-logit estimates corrected for the clustering effect. Several tests are then conducted to assess the robustness of the results. We also recall that theoretical results do exist to explain why banks’ ownership structure can alter market discipline and the ability of market-derived indicators to predict future financial distresses. This work finally suggests that the empirical literature dealing with market discipline should not focus only on the moral hazard potentially created by bad insurance deposit design, balance sheet opacity or the safety net: the evolution of banks ownership structure might also be an important prudential issue.
    Keywords: market discipline; ownership concentration; banks’ risk taking
    JEL: G21 G32 G34 E44 E58
    Date: 2008
  10. By: Martin, John P. (OECD); Whitehouse, Edward (OECD)
    Abstract: Reforming pensions looms large over the policy agenda of OECD countries. This is hardly surprising since public spending on pensions accounted on average for 7 per cent of OECD GDP in 2005; and this pension spending effort is set to increase significantly over the coming decades in response to population ageing. Pension policy is indeed challenging and controversial because it involves long-term decisions in the face of numerous short-term political pressures. However, the status quo does not always win out so far as pension reform in concerned: public finance crises and the looming threat of ageing populations have proved effective spurs for reform. As a result, much has been done since the early 1990s to make pension systems fit for the future. Nearly all the 30 OECD countries have made at least some changes to their pension systems in that period. In 16 of them, there have been major reforms that will significantly affect future benefits. The purpose of this paper is to summarise these reforms and highlight the main lessons. Section 1 looks at which countries reformed their pensions systems and which did not. It also examines the fiscal challenges posed by public pensions. Section 2 describes the measures in the reforms themselves. These include, among other things, increases in pension age, changes in the way benefits are calculated and smaller pension increases in retirement than in the past. Section 3 explores the impact of these reforms on future pension entitlements of today’s retirees, showing a clear trend to a lower pension promise for today’s workers than for past generations. This means that people will need to save more for their own retirement via private pension schemes, an issue examined in Section 4. This is followed in Section 5 by a review of the main outstanding challenges facing pension systems in OECD countries. The final section presents some concluding remarks.
    Keywords: reform of public and private pensions, replacement rates, pension wealth, mandatory and voluntary pensions, OECD pension reform challenges
    JEL: H55 I38
    Date: 2008–05
  11. By: Bassanini, Andrea (OECD); Nunziata, Luca (University of Padova); Venn, Danielle (OECD)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of employment protection legislation on productivity in the OECD, using annual cross-country aggregate data on the degree of regulations and industry-level data on productivity from 1982 to 2003. We adopt a "difference-in-differences" framework, which exploits likely differences in the productivity effect of dismissal regulations in different industries. Our identifying assumption is that stricter employment protection influences worker or firm behaviour, and thereby productivity, more in industries where the policy is likely to be binding than in other industries. The advantage of this approach is that, in contrast with standard cross-country analysis, we can control for unobserved factors that, on average, are likely to have the same effect on productivity in all industries. Our empirical results suggest that mandatory dismissal regulations have a depressing impact on productivity growth in industries where layoff restrictions are more likely to be binding. We present a large battery of robustness checks, including dealing with endogeneity issues, that suggest that our finding is robust.
    Keywords: labour market institutions, EPL, productivity, difference-in-differences
    JEL: J08 J23 J24
    Date: 2008–06
  12. By: Sandrine Levasseur (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
    Date: 2008
  13. By: Chiuri, Maria Concetta (University of Bari); Del Boca, Daniela (University of Turin)
    Abstract: While several social, economic and financial indicators point to a growing convergence among European countries, striking differences still emerge in the timing of leaving home for adult children. In Southern countries (as Spain, Italy or Portugal) in 2001 more than 70 percent of young adults between 18 and 34 years of age live with their parents, whereas the corresponding number for Northern countries (like Denmark or the UK) is well below 40 percent. Existing literature highlights several factors explaining the different patterns in Europe: preferences and culture, labor market conditions, housing market as well as differences across the welfare states. In our work, we consider living arrangements of people 18-34 years old from 14 European countries (ECHP). We augment the informational content with indicators of labor, housing and marriage markets characteristics as well as proxy for the welfare states and culture. We investigate how they are intertwined with gender differences
    Keywords: living arrangements, duration analysis, government expenditures
    JEL: J13 C41 H53
    Date: 2008–06
  14. By: Callan, Tim (ESRI, Dublin); Smeeding, Tim (Syracuse University); Tsakloglou, Panos (Athens University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: Direct provision of public services can alter the balance of resources across income groups. We focus on the issues arising when taking account of the impact of publicly provided education services across the income distribution. We combine OECD information on spending per student in particular levels of the education system with micro data from nationwide income surveys to track the allocation of resources. We pay particular attention to the role of third level education, and provide comparable results for seven European countries (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK).
    Keywords: inequality, in-kind transfers, tertiary education, Europe
    JEL: I28 D31 H42
    Date: 2008–06
  15. By: Massimiliano Serati (Cattaneo University (LIUC)); Michela Martinoia (Cattaneo University (LIUC))
    Abstract: In this paper we address two relevant issues among those characterising the macroeconomic literature on migration. (a) We evaluate which impact is produced by the immigration flows coming from the enlargement countries on the EU-15 labour market. (b) We draw clues on the migrant characteristics as for their skill levels. We adopt an insider/outsider model inspired by that of Amisano and Serati (2003), but enlarged in order to model the migration flows and fit to wage, participation and employment differentials between skilled and unskilled workers. We identify the structural shocks of the reduced VAR form of the model through sign restrictions imposed to the Impulse Response Functions, leaving unconstrained only the impact multipliers of relative (skilled to unskilled) wage, employment and labour force with respect to a migration shock. This is equivalent to adopt an agnostic approach, letting emerge freely the signals coming from the data: combining them with theoretical suggestions we derive at least weak indications on the fact that the skill mix of migrants is either biased towards high or low qualified labour. It does emerge that migration from Eastern European countries towards the EU-15 is mainly constituted by skilled workers and generates effects of reduction of the employment gap; on the other side, it enlarges the skilled to unskilled relative wage gap. The whole picture suggests the adoption of policies aimed at attract skilled migration through economic but also social and environmental incentives.
    Date: 2008–02
  16. By: Cazavan-Jeny, Anne (ESSEC Business School); Jeanjean, Thomas (HEC School of Management)
    Abstract: We study the supply and demand for European accounting research, referring to author nationality and the country origin of the data to define research as ‘European’. We study both the supply (conference proceedings) and the demand (published papers) for European research. To assess the supply side, we study all papers presented at the 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2005 EAA congresses. Out of the total 1622 papers, 257 (16%) are European, with an increase after 2000. We find that European papers are more often co-authored than local papers. 50% of the European papers are in Financial Accounting (vs. 35% for local papers, 57% for other papers); 46% use the empirical archival methodology (vs. 33% for local papers and 48% for other papers). Out of the 158 European papers presented at the 1998, 2000 and 2002 EAA congresses, 55 (34%) have been published by 2006. As expected, the EAR is the major outlet for European papers, closely followed by British and US journals. The number of co-authors and their nationality are the only significant variables associated with the likelihood of publication. This study furthers understanding of the ongoing construction of the European accounting research community, by studying not only published papers, but also conference proceedings.
    Keywords: Accounting research; Co-authorship; Bibliometry; European Research; EAA; Publication
    JEL: M40 M41
    Date: 2008–06
  17. By: Arjan Lejour; Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
    Abstract: Using the CGE model WorldScan, we assess the benefits for the EU member states of jointly reaching four of the Lisbon targets (i.e. 70% employment, skills upgrades, increased R&D expenditures and administrative burden reductions of 25%), compared with the alternative when each country unilaterally pursues these reforms. With this approach, we estimate the associated international spillovers of joint EU coordination. Spillovers associated with R&D expenditures are a key factor. When the R&D target is jointly reached in the EU, output almost doubles and consumption experiments an even greater increase. The other three targets also produce positive spillovers, but of a much lower magnitude.
    Keywords: International Policy Spillovers; CGE models; R&D spillovers
    JEL: F42 C68 O33
    Date: 2008–05
  18. By: Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Michaud, Pierre-Carl (RAND); Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna (University of Girona)
    Abstract: We provide comparable evidence on the patterns and trends in obesity across the Atlantic and analyse whether there are economic rationales for public intervention to control obesity. We take into account equity issues as well as efficiency considerations, which are organized around three categories of market failures: productive inefficiencies, lack of information or rationality and health insurance externalities. We also calculate the long term financial consequences of current US and European obesity trends, and conclude with a brief review of current policies to reduce and prevent excessive body weight both in Europe and the US.
    Keywords: obesity, health care costs, efficiency, equity
    JEL: I1 D6
    Date: 2008–06
  19. By: Lo Cascio, Martino; Bagarani, Massimo; Zampino, Simona
    Abstract: Since the early 1990s, regional economic growth processes assume a key role in the EU policy agenda as a main tool to enhance social and economic convergence within the EU spatial landscape. Literature on regional economic growth and convergence provides some evidence on the most relevant factors affecting economic processes, mainly assuming homogeneity of production functions and steady state conditions in cross-section and panel regressions. In this framework, assuming a minimal definition of transitional steady state, econometric methods are adopted to identify regional characteristics and examine the determinants of different development models. The quantitative analysis is centred on - LSDV (Least Square Dummy Variables) estimates to cluster EU 11 regions (EU 13 excluding UK and Ireland due to lack of statistical data) by defining homogeneous latent structures affecting different transitional growth patterns; - coupled with multinomial conditional logit models to qualify the spatial distribution of expected vs actual regional gaps. Even conscious of the shortcomings of the described neoclassical production function convergence and divergence mechanisms, a sort of metaphor of substantive economic behaviour, three main findings for an explorative analysis are proposed i) the role of enlarged neoclassical production function and, at same time, its limited weight on average with respect to social and political factors as well as other stock fundamental determinants; ii) the deep differences of above defined weight of enlarged neoclassical production function at regional level in Europe; iii) the need for an adaptive governance of EU finance effort, within the same strategic objective of convergence.
    Keywords: Economic regional growth, Panel models
    JEL: O47 R11 C21 C23
    Date: 2008–06–30
  20. By: Dalen, H.P. van; Henkens, K.; Hershey, D.A. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)
    Abstract: Are retirement savings sufficient to finance a good pension income? This highly uncertain and subjective dimension of life cycle decision making is assessed among married working individuals using an identical survey distributed to Dutch and American workers in 2007. Despite marked differences in expected and needed pension replacement rates - where the Dutch replacement rates are systematically higher than the American rates - the perceived savings adequacy is more or less the same across Dutch and American workers. Moreover, individuals? perceived savings adequacy was found to be influenced by the three groups of factors: institutional forces, social forces and psychological dispositions. This study shows that differences in the mind set of American workers plays a far larger role in explaining differences in perceptions of savings adequacy than it does in the Netherlands.
    Keywords: retirement;savings;planning;pension funds
    JEL: D14 D91 G23 J26
    Date: 2008
  21. By: Flora Bellone (Université de Nice); Patrick Musso (CNRS); Lionel Nesta (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques); Frédéric Warzynski (Aarhus School of Business)
    Date: 2008
  22. By: Rosa M. González-Marrero; Rosa M. Lorenzo-Alegría; Gustavo A. Marrero
    Abstract: Road transport is one of the most polluting sectors in Spain, generating almost one fourth of total CO2 emissions. Moreover, the consumption of fuel is the main source of these emissions. In this paper we estimate several fixed-effect models to study the economic factors that explain the short-term variations in fuel usage per vehicle, distinguishing between gasoline and diesel, using data from the 17 regions in Spain between 2000 and 2006. Price variations in fuel, modernization of vehicles, improved infrastructures and the dieselization process have proved ineffective in reducing energy usage per-vehicle in Spain, which would indicate the need to implement several measures simultaneously to control the increasing use of road transport.
    Date: 2008–06
  23. By: Jean-Paul Fitoussi (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques); Eloi Laurent (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
    Date: 2008
  24. By: Sierminska, Eva (CEPS/INSTEAD); Frick, Joachim R. (DIW Berlin); Grabka, Markus M. (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: Welfare-oriented analyses of economic outcome measures such as income and wealth generally rest on the assumption of pooled and equally shared resources among all household members. Yet the lack of individual-level data hampers the distribution of income and wealth within the household context. Based on unique individual-level wealth data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this paper challenges the implicit assumption of internal redistribution by considering an alternative definition of the aggregation unit and by controlling its effect on distribution and inequality analysis. We find empirical evidence for a significant gender wealth gap of about 30,000 euros in Germany, which amounts to almost 50,000 euros for married partners. Decomposition analyses reveal that this gap is mostly driven by differences in characteristics between men and women, the most important factor being the individual’s own income and labor market experience, and particularly so at the bottom and top of the wealth distribution. However, this finding can only be shown with nonparametric decomposition techniques. Differences for those in the middle of the distribution appear to be mostly driven by the wealth function, i.e., the way in which women transform their characteristics into wealth.
    Keywords: wealth gap, wealth inequality, gender, SOEP
    JEL: D13 D31 D69 I31
    Date: 2008–06
  25. By: Fitzenberger, Bernd (University of Freiburg); Orlyanskaya, Olga (University of Freiburg); Osikominu, Aderonke (University of Freiburg); Waller, Marie (University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: Short-term training has recently become the largest active labor market program in Germany regarding the number of participants. Little is known on the effectiveness of different types of short-term training and on their long-run effects. This paper estimates the effects of short-term training programs in West Germany starting in the time period 1980 to 1992 and 2000 to 2003 regarding the two outcomes employment and participation in longer training programs. We find that short-term training shows mostly persistently positive and often significant employment effects. Short-term training focusing on testing and monitoring search effort shows slightly smaller effects compared to the pure training variant. The lock-in periods lasted longer in the 1980s and 1990s compared to the early 2000s. Short-term training results in higher future participation in longer training programs and this effect was much stronger for the earlier time period.
    Keywords: administrative data, future training participation, employment effects, short-term training, active labor market programs
    JEL: C14 J68 H43
    Date: 2008–06
  26. By: Pfeifer, Christian (University of Hannover)
    Abstract: Using the large-scale German Socio-Economic Panel, this note reports direct empirical evidence for significant correlations between risk aversion and labour market outcomes (full-time employment, temporary agency work, fixed-term contracts, employer change, quits, training, wages, and job satisfaction).
    Keywords: employment, job search, human capital, risk aversion, wages
    JEL: J01 J24 J64
    Date: 2008–05
  27. By: Gerdes, Christer (SOFI, Stockholm University); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the effects on support for different political parties due to an increase in the immigrant share in Danish municipalities during the period 1989-2001. We find that the immigrant share has some notable effects. The anti-immigration parties are among those that win votes when the immigrant share increases, but a pro-immigration party on the left also gains from an increase in the immigrant share. The non-socialist party that is most pro-immigration, however, loses votes when the immigrant share increases. Our results indicate that in the elections some Danish voters voice their displeasure about immigration in their own neighbourhood. But we find no clear indication of a general decline in support for the welfare state on account of immigration, as several scholars have been predicting.
    Keywords: immigration, immigrants, elections, racism, xenophobia
    JEL: J15 J61 D72
    Date: 2008–07
  28. By: Alex Armstrong; Nick Draper; Ed Westerhout
    Abstract: The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades. However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections.
    Keywords: Demographic Uncertainty; Public Finance; Stochastic Simulations
    JEL: C68 H68 J11
    Date: 2008–04

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