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on Education |
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Issue of 2026–08–24
thirty-six papers chosen by João Carlos Correia Leitão, Universidade da Beira Interior |
| By: | Barrios Fernandez, Andres; Neilson, Christopher; Zimmerman, Seth |
| Abstract: | Do elite colleges help talented students join the social elite, or help incumbent elites retain their positions? We combine intergenerationally-linked data from Chile with a regression discontinuity design to show that, looking across generations, elite colleges do both. Lower-status individuals who gain admission to elite college programs transform their children’s social environment. Children become more likely to attend highstatus private schools and colleges, and to live near and befriend high-status peers. In contrast, academic achievement is unaffected. Simulations combining descriptive and quasi-experimental findings show that elite colleges tighten the link between social and human capital while decreasing intergenerational social mobility. |
| JEL: | I24 D64 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19431 |
| By: | Leibing, Andreas (German Centre for Research on Higher Education and Science Studies (DZHW)) |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data on more than six million German high school graduates from 1995 to 2018, this paper studies how labor market conditions around high school graduation affect postsecondary skill investments. Exploiting cyclical deviations from secular state-specific trends, I find procyclical overall university enrollment, especially at academic universities. Long-run attainment effects are procyclical for academic universities and countercyclical for applied universities. Using large-scale survey data, I present changes in expected returns to different degrees as a potential mechanism. During downturns, graduates expect lower returns to university degrees, while expected returns to the outside option, apprenticeships, are stable. |
| Keywords: | college enrollment, subjective expectations, business cycle, apprenticeship |
| JEL: | D84 E24 E32 I23 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18835 |
| By: | Hosam Ibrahim; Andreas de Barros; Sarah Deschênes; Paul Glewwe |
| Abstract: | Can governments translate evidence on "what works" into learning gains in public schools? Morocco combined targeted remediation and structured pedagogy (two approaches ranked as "great buys" by a global evidence panel) and delivered them through the existing public-school workforce in 626 schools. Using a pre-registered matched difference-in-differences design across 276 schools and 22, 846 students, we estimate that the program increased scores on an independent assessment after one year by 0.90 standard deviations: 0.52 in Arabic, 1.30 in French, and 0.93 in mathematics. Administrative records also show higher grade promotion (1.7 percentage points), while enrollment, which is nearly universal, remained unchanged. |
| Keywords: | education, human capital, Morocco |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 O15 O22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12866 |
| By: | Christopher Campos; John Singleton |
| Abstract: | Although use of generative AI tools has quickly become widespread in education settings, emerging evidence suggests that effects on learning will depend on how that use is supported and guided. This paper reports findings from an original national survey of K-12 school principals designed to measure institutional integration of AI in schools through policies, teacher training, guidance for student use, leadership engagement, and the availability of AI-enabled tools. We find that AI use has spread rapidly across schools, largely as a productivity aid. Students mainly use AI for homework help and writing, while educators primarily use it for lesson planning and administrative tasks. The development of teacher training, guidance, and school policies has lagged adoption. We next document two diffusion gaps across schools: First, lower AI integration is associated with a higher share of disadvantaged students (a one standard deviation increase in disadvantage is associated with a 0.07-0.11σ lower score on an index of AI integration); Second, private and charter schools score 0.23-0.44σ lower on the AI integration index than traditional public schools. Although several surveyed school-level factors strongly predict AI integration, they do little to explain these gaps. Differences in district size account for roughly one-third of the disadvantage gap between public schools. These findings suggest that the factors associated with greater AI integration differ from those needed to narrow disparities in how schools support and guide AI use. |
| Keywords: | AI, education, diffusion, technology |
| JEL: | O33 I21 I24 D23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26195 |
| By: | Lorenzo Cappellari; Tommaso Colussi; Marco Ovidi |
| Abstract: | We study how committee dynamics affect the recognition of academic excellence and its consequences in the labour market. Using administrative records from a major Italian university and exploiting exogenous variation in the gender composition of graduation committees, we show that equally prepared female graduates are significantly less likely to receive laude honors when evaluated by male-majority committees, while males are unaffected. The effect is concentrated among students advised by female or early-career faculty and disappears when a woman chairs the committee, pointing to the role of authority and influence in deliberations. We show pre-defense gender gaps in adivsors' official laude requests in male-majority committees, consistent with nominations responding to expected committee support. Gaps in academic distinction translate into meaningful entry-wage penalties, contributing to gender gaps at labor-market entry. |
| Keywords: | Gender bias, academic evaluation, labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J16 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26194 |
| By: | Bharti, Nitin Kumar (University of Western Australia); Malik, Samreen (New York University Abu Dhabi); Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | Despite near-universal school enrollment across many developing economies, the provision of quality education that cultivates lifelong learning and the capacity to apply knowledge in novel circumstances remains elusive. We conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial in 132 public schools in Uttar Pradesh, India, to evaluate a guided, discovery-based science pedagogy at two intensity levels: a high-intensity Mobile Science Lab (MSL) and a lower-intensity Lab on Bike (LoB). MSL improves motivational beliefs and self-confidence by 0.15-0.18 standard deviations, reduces perceived barriers to education by 0.23 standard deviations, raises engagement by 0.17-0.22 standard deviations, and increases standardized test scores by 0.22-0.34 standard deviations across all subjects. LoB produces limited average effects, with gains concentrated among students completing all sessions. These findings demonstrate that pedagogical design and delivery intensity are critical determinants of multidimensional human capital formation, and that discovery-based pedagogy can shift motivational beliefs, engagement, and achievement in low-capacity public school systems. |
| Keywords: | experiential pedagogy, curiosity, student engagement, randomized controlled trial, human capital, India |
| JEL: | C93 D83 I21 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idd:wpaper:1 |
| By: | Basiglio, Stefania; Del Boca, Daniela; Pronzato, Chiara |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of the “Coding Girls†educational enrichment program designed to address the underrepresentation of women and girls in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). Implemented in Italy, the program seeks to stimulate the interest of young female students in programming and science, encouraging them to consider STEM†related fields of study. Through a randomized controlled trial involving 28 classes across 10 secondary schools in Turin, Italy, we assess the program’s effectiveness. Our results show that Coding Girls significantly enhances the programming skills of both male and female students. Moreover, it raises awareness among students about gender disparities in STEM†related professions. While the program positively influences boys’ aspirations to pursue higher education in STEM disciplines, it does not have a similar effect on girls. |
| Keywords: | Gender; Stem; Higher educational choice |
| JEL: | J16 I23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19477 |
| By: | Elizabeth Burland; Nora Delaney; Susan Dynarski; Katherine B. Leu; CJ Libassi; Katherine Michelmore; Stephanie Owen; Mary A. Quiroga; Elizabeth Salinas; Susan M. Dynarski |
| Abstract: | Earnings inequality among college graduates has grown, and returns to a bachelor's degree (BA) vary substantially across colleges. We experimentally evaluate a program that shifted high-achieving, low-income students into higher-quality colleges. Students randomly offered a guarantee of four years of tuition and fees at the University of Michigan were 21 percentage points more likely to enroll at a UM campus. The offer shifted students across colleges rather than into college: most compliers would otherwise have attended less-selective four-year colleges. HAIL increased four-year BA completion by 4 percentage points, but had no effect on attainment after six years. It substantially increased degree quality: students offered the scholarship were 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree from a highly or most selective college. IV estimates indicate that students induced to attend a University of Michigan campus were 56 percentage points more likely to earn such a degree. The increase in college quality predicts earnings gains of 18 to 25 percent. Faster degree completion adds about another 1 percent to the present discounted value of lifetime earnings. |
| Keywords: | college quality, financial aid, inequality, college completion, experiment |
| JEL: | D31 I22 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12884 |
| By: | Bredtmann, Julia (RWI); Otten, Sebastian (University of Duisburg-Essen); Vonnahme, Christina (Westphalian University of Applied Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether teachers discriminate against ethnic minority students with regard to grading. Using comprehensive data on students in German primary and secondary schools, we compare students' scores on standardized, anonymously graded achievement tests with non-anonymous teacher ratings within a difference-in-differences framework. Although minority students tend to score lower on the standardized test than majority students, this achievement gap is significantly reduced when graded by the teacher. This finding cannot be fully explained by differences in socioeconomic background, language-related differences in standardized test performance, or the sorting of students into educational contexts with different grading standards. Overall, our findings suggest that teachers have a positive evaluation bias toward ethnic minority students. |
| Keywords: | immigration, discrimination, grading bias |
| JEL: | F22 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18847 |
| By: | Philip Oreopoulos; Ruochong Dong; Nina Low |
| Abstract: | We explore the efficacy of an online after-school tutoring program that complements teacher-provided computer-assisted learning practice. The aim is to scaffold students struggling with online Khan Academy practice at school with low-cost, one-on-one virtual supervision for about an hour a week at home. In a two-year randomized trial with the Toronto District School Board, teachers identified struggling Grade 4–8 students, whose parents were then randomly offered additional online tutoring to support their practice at home. The main obstacle was participation. Only 45% of assigned students reached a first session in Year 1. After we reframed the invitation and simplified enrollment, initial take-up in Year 2 rose to 83%, though weekly attendance remained below half—not because students dropped out, but because they attended intermittently. On average, the offer raised Khan Academy practice by about 10 minutes per week. This translated to an average gain in math assessment scores of 0.06 SD, with a confidence interval too wide to rule out null or medium-sized gains (ITT 0.055 SD; 95% CI [−0.09, 0.20]). We find a marginally significant gain in math report-card marks (about 0.08 SD; 95% CI [−0.01, 0.17]) and improvements in math satisfaction and enjoyment, with effects larger in Year 2 than in Year 1, consistent with the higher take-up that year. We therefore conclude that the program holds promise, but more is needed to ensure students actually engage with tutors on a regular basis. |
| JEL: | C93 D91 I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35622 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rivera-Olvera, Angelica (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | Schooling increases earnings but getting causal information on the impact of schooling requires generating evidence from policy changes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on earnings using new compulsory schooling law data across 16 European countries. We use recent and comparable microdata and analyze the impact of reforms on schooling and earnings. Results show that a year of education substantially increases earnings, especially for those with tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, compulsory schooling reforms, instrumental variables, causal inference, human capital, earnings, Europe |
| JEL: | I26 J31 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18859 |
| By: | Adamecz, Anna (University College London and KRTK KTI); Jerrim, John (University College London); Szabó-Morvai, Ã gnes (KRTK KTI and University of Debrecen) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of dropping out of school in the association between adolescent mental health disorders (MHDs) and subsequent early-life outcomes. Utilising an administrative panel dataset that links education, health, and employment records for half of the Hungarian school population, we track the life outcomes of a school cohort until age 22. Our findings indicate that adolescents diagnosed with an MHD between the ages of 14 and 16 are 5.8 percentage points (or 34%) more likely to drop out of secondary school compared to their peers, even after controlling for social background factors and educational performance. Furthermore, MHDs are associated with poorer early-life outcomes by age 22, including reduced employment rates, an increased likelihood of being neither in education nor employment, lower wages, and higher probabilities of motherhood, abortions, sexually transmitted diseases, and substance abuse. On average, approximately a third of these negative associations are mediated through school dropout but there are substantial differences across these outcomes. |
| Keywords: | adolescent mental health, school dropout, school-to-work transition, NEET, abortion, substance abuse, sexually transmitted diseases, causal mediation analysis |
| JEL: | I12 I29 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18763 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Zafar, Sarim |
| Abstract: | What is the optimal timing for a cash transfer targeting increased secondary school enrollment? We present evidence from a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia showing a CCT increases enrollment and reduces child marriage. The largest effects are observed for youth offered the transfer a year prior to their (potential) matriculation; in this cohort, there is also a significant in-crease in the probability students pass the primary school leaving exam. By contrast, reduced treatment effects are observed for prior dropouts, and a generalized random forest analysis suggests this primarily reflects different observable characteristics (lower academic performance) among this sub-sample. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; social protection; education; youth; secondary education; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:183379 |
| By: | E. Jason Baron; Micah Y. Baum; Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Maria D. Fitzpatrick; Brian Jacob; Joseph P. Ryan |
| Abstract: | Involvement with the child welfare system varies dramatically across places. While some of this variation may reflect differences in underlying maltreatment risk, it may also result from differences in institutional responses to similar circumstances. To disentangle these explanations, we study Michigan public school data linked to Child Protective Services reports from 2017–2024. School-level reporting rates range from virtually none to more than half of students reported between kindergarten and fifth grade. We estimate school-specific reporting tendencies using value-added methods and document substantial variation in reporting behavior after accounting for differences in student risk. Using student movers, we show that these estimates are forecast-unbiased. Our estimates imply that school-specific reporting practices account for roughly 40 percent of the variation in reporting rates across schools. We then estimate a structural model that decomposes reporting practices into diagnostic skill and preferences. Differences in skill explain more than twice as much variation as differences in preferences, and higher-reporting schools tend to be more skilled at identifying high-risk cases. Counterfactual simulations imply that improving detection skill would yield significant welfare gains, while recent policy proposals aimed at reducing or equalizing reporting rates generally lower welfare by increasing the number of high-risk cases that go unreported. |
| JEL: | D81 H75 I28 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35619 |
| By: | Goller, Daniel (University of Bern); Lüthi, Samuel (Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education); Wolter, Stefan (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Practical skills are widely believed to be a key determinant of labor market success, yet credible empirical evidence remains scarce, because these skills are occupation-specific, acquired primarily through workplace experience, and notoriously difficult to measure. We address these challenges using an exceptional dataset covering over 170 occupations. Our measure of practical skills is based on high-stakes expert evaluations of apprentices’ performance in occupation-specific standardized practical examinations, conducted under authentic workplace conditions and lasting from several hours to several weeks. Combined with rich administrative data, this allows us to separate practical skills from general and vocational knowledge. We show that practical skills form a distinct dimension of human capital, only weakly correlated with traditional achievement measures. Practical skills are the strongest predictor of early labor market success, consistently associated with higher first-year earnings, lower NEET risk, greater retention by the training firm, and a higher likelihood of entering tertiary education. These relationships are robust across occupational task groups and by gender. |
| Keywords: | return to skills, practical skills, school-to-work transition, human capital |
| JEL: | J24 I26 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18848 |
| By: | Machielsen, Bas; van Besouw, Bram |
| Abstract: | We study the fiscal and educational consequences of franchise extension using the administratively arbitrary sorting of Dutch municipalities into nine voter-eligibility classes by the 1896 Electoral Law. Larger suffrage expansions contracted municipal expenditure and revenue and cut education spending, the largest budget heading. Public-school fees fell sharply while public pupils, schools, and class size did not change, so a smaller budget was spread over unchanged public provision and the saving passed to parents. Administrative records for 1905--1907 show that private pupil and teacher stocks expanded and the private share of teaching staff rose, while public stocks stood still inside a growing system. Neither a rise in the appeal of confessional schooling nor a fall in public teachers per pupil accounts for this. Teacher vacancy advertisements show private schools raising salaries while public councils increasingly rested on the statutory minimum. Democratization reorganized primary education rather than enlarging or shrinking it. |
| Keywords: | democratization, political economy, education, public goods, public economics |
| JEL: | N43 H75 I22 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342692 |
| By: | Lorenzo Navarini; Dieter Verhaest |
| Abstract: | When individuals enter jobs requiring a lower level of education, their returns to education may be lower. Existing studies analyze this by estimating wage penalties conditional on job match. This paper goes further by introducing a new decomposition that expresses returns using a potential outcome framework, taking into account both overeducation probabilities in the first job and the subsequent associated penalties. We embed this framework in a dynamic model of endogenous educational choices, overeducation, and wages, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Using Belgian data, we find that overeducated workers experience a persistent wage penalty. Yet, because the risk of overeducation is also present at intermediate education levels, its impact on average returns is often limited and can even be positive in the case of Bachelor's degree. Finally, we show that overeducation is a major source of heterogeneity in realized returns among Master's graduates. |
| Keywords: | Skill Mismatch; Overeducation; Dynamic Discrete Choice Model; Returns to Education |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26201 |
| By: | Black, Ines; Figueiredo, Ana |
| Abstract: | We show that occupation mobility creates the illusion of cyclical hiring wages. Using administrative data, we find that wages of new hires who remain in the same occupation are no more cyclical than those of existing workers, whereas wages of occupation switchers are highly cyclical. We uncover higher wage cyclicality also among workers who switch occupations within the same firm. Moreover, wage cyclicality increases, the more different current and previous occupations’ required skills. Our results suggest that the widely documented cyclicality of entry wages reflects composition effects due to changes in match quality in worker’s occupation, rather than wage flexibility. |
| Keywords: | wage cyclicality; Occupation mobility |
| JEL: | J62 J31 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19430 |
| By: | Tiziano Arduini; Daniela Iorio; Francesca Marazzi |
| Abstract: | We study whether social standing during adolescence has persistent effects on later labor market outcomes, using relative height within school cohorts as a visible, predetermined marker. Using Add Health data, we reinterpret the height premium as positional rather than a return to absolute stature. Being one inch shorter than the tallest classmate is associated with 1.4% lower earnings for males, with no effect for females. The relationship is asymmetric, driven by a penalty for low standing, and persists into mature career. It operates through social integration rather than schooling or occupational sorting, suggesting adolescent hierarchies have long-lasting economic consequences. |
| Keywords: | height premium, adolescence, relative height, peer effects, social comparisons |
| JEL: | J31 J24 D91 I21 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12911 |
| By: | Senan Hogan-Hennessy |
| Abstract: | Genes associated with educational attainment causally improve labour market income, but the economic mechanism behind this relationship is not clear. Using quasi-random variation in genetic inheritance across siblings in the UK Biobank, I estimate the causal effect of the Education PolyGenic Index (Ed PGI) on education and income. A one standard deviation increase in the Ed PGI raises completed education by 0.5 years and later-life income by around 5 percent (replicating the main estimates in Carvalho 2025). I then decompose this total genetic income effect into an indirect channel operating through education years and a residual direct effect, using a causal mediation framework. Unlike structural model-based decompositions, this approach is design-based; one remaining source of uncertainty (the causal return to an extra year of education) is handled transparently through a sensitivity analysis. At correlational education returns of around 6 percent, 65 to 75 percent of the total genetic income effect operates through the years of education channel. Quasi-experimental estimates from the economics literature for Britain imply higher returns to education, suggesting that the mediated share is larger and that the majority of the Ed PGI's income effect operates through completed years of education. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.19562 |
| By: | Razavi, Goya (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Large earnings gaps by socio-economic status (SES) persist among college applicants even where tuition is free. Using the universe of Danish applications linked to administrative earnings, I ask whether these gaps reflect low returns to selective majors, admission rules, or students’ own choices. Leveraging GPA admission cutoffs from a centralized matching algorithm, I apply a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to examine whether low-SES students benefit from selective college majors. Scoring just above the cutoff for admission to a more selective major raises low-SES students’ income by 9% at age 30, partially closing the class gap in earnings. For high-SES students I find no detectable gain. To disentangle the contribution of major-specific returns from that of students’ choices as sources of inequality, I then estimate a joint model of college major choice and earnings in which returns depend on peer composition, using students’ rank-ordered application lists to correct for selection on unobservables. Low-SES returns exceed high-SES returns, relative to their outside options, across most of the major selectivity distribution. Current GPA-based meritocratic admissions are inefficient in terms of maximizing earnings: implementing need-affirmative admissions, holding capacity fixed, would reduce the class gap by 15% through upward mobility of disadvantaged students. Notably, the class gap in earnings could largely be eliminated if students selected college majors based on returns, though this requires expanding capacity. Thus, disparities persist not because disadvantaged students experience low returns from selective majors, but because of how seats are allocated and which majors students choose. |
| Keywords: | Admission rules; earnings; policy impact; capacity |
| JEL: | J01 J12 |
| Date: | 2026–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_010 |
| By: | Jain, Divyanshu (Plaksha University); Jain, Tarun (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how math-intensive evaluation drives science gender gaps. Using question-level data from a large standardized exam in grades 3 to 10 in India, we find boys outperform girls in mathematics in each grade. In science, girls outperform boys in early grades when few questions are math-intensive, but underperform in later grades as math intensity increases. A substantial portion of the gender gap is explained by question type: girls perform comparably to boys on non-quantitative science questions, but underperform on quantitative ones across all grades. Conditional on previous year performance, girls face a larger penalty from increasing math intensity in science exams. These findings show that gender differences in science are primarily driven by quantitative content in science assessments, helping explain why gender gaps are concentrated in math-intensive science fields. Strengthening foundational mathematics skills and confidence for girls could reduce gender gaps in science, with implications for gender-based sorting in higher education and careers. |
| Keywords: | science achievement, gender gap, math-in-science, school education |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idd:wpaper:4 |
| By: | Bingley, Paul (VIVE Copenhagen); Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Ovidi, Marco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Sandi, Matteo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first causal evidence on the intergenerational effects of parental criminal victimization originating outside the family. Using population-wide Danish administrative data, we compare end-of-compulsory-school examination scores of children exposed to parental victimization with those of matched controls, and exploit victimizations occurring after compulsory schooling to account for residual selection. Violent, but not property, victimization lowers children’s mathematics scores by 0.03 standard deviations, rising to 0.05 standard deviations for exposure in early childhood, a period when parental inputs are especially consequential for skill formation. Deterioration in family stability, paternal behavior, and labor market attachment following victimization emerge as the primary mechanisms, pointing to an underappreciated channel of intergenerational inequality. |
| Keywords: | parental criminal victimization, intergenerational spillovers, children’s human capital, early childhood |
| JEL: | K42 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18855 |
| By: | Jack Rossiter (Center for Global Development); David K. Evans (Center for Global Development); Susannah Hares (Independent); Catherine Henny (Independent consultant) |
| Abstract: | Policymakers, practitioners, and donors rely on standardised effect sizes to compare education programmes and allocate resources. Yet in early-grade reading interventions in low- and middle-income countries, these metrics reflect differences in measurement tools, sample composition, and scaling choices as much as genuine learning gains. Drawing on data from 197 studies, we find that a single additional word per minute of reading fluency corresponds to anywhere from 0.03 to 0.55 standard deviations across studies. For tests designed by researchers—the most common type of test in this literature and the hardest to compare—a single correct response on a reading assessment can result in a standardised gain anywhere from 0.08 to 0.80 standard deviations. Converting raw to standardised effects also reorders which programmes appear most effective. Fewer than one in four papers (23 percent) present both standardised and raw effects, leaving readers unable to judge specifically what children can do differently as a result of the programme and whether that change matters educationally. We propose that researchers report raw effects and reference distributions alongside standardised estimates, that work on reading benchmarks be extended across more languages and countries, and that shared measurement frameworks be developed faster. Together, these reporting changes can improve interpretation for policymakers and allow evidence syntheses to explicitly model differences in test design and sample composition across studies. Each of these changes would help the field show what children actually gained from a programme, not just how large the effect appears. |
| Date: | 2026–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:748 |
| By: | Bet Caeyers; Lina Cardona Sosa; Sarah Cattan; Sonya Krutikova; Abu Siddique |
| Abstract: | Preschool enrollment has expanded rapidly in low-income countries, but quality has lagged, and evidence on how governments can improve it remains limited. We evaluate Lively Minds, a scalable early childhood program adopted and implemented by Ghana’s Ministry of Education that trains community mothers to deliver structured, play-based activities in public preschools and support children’s learning at home. Using a cluster randomized controlled trial in 80 rural preschools, we find that the program increases cognitive development by 0.12 standard deviations and reduces problem behaviors by 0.10 SD on average. Cognitive gains are similar for children of participating and non-participating mothers, whereas behavioral improvements are concentrated among children of participating mothers. Consistent with this pattern, only participating mothers improve their knowledge of child development and engage in more developmentally supportive interactions with their children at home. These findings suggest that engaging parents — even those with limited formal education — can generate additional benefits beyond those of approaches that rely solely on teachers and paraprofessionals. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that the program’s private benefits substantially exceed its costs, with no adverse effects on mothers’ well-being. |
| Keywords: | early childhood development, preschool quality, parenting, scalability |
| JEL: | J13 I10 I20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12910 |
| By: | Andersen, Erik T. J.; Graffy, Simon; Kerwin, Jason T.; Lambon-Quayefio, Monica |
| Abstract: | Addressing the massive test score gaps between rich and poor countries will require programs that are both high-impact and scalable. This study uses the results of a randomized controlled trial in low-fee private schools in Ghana to study a program that meets both needs. The Tools for Foundational Learning Improvement program increased test scores by 0.5 standard deviation after just nine months of intervention. A machine learning method decomposes the effects by predicted test scores if the students did not receive the treatment, and the findings show that the gains were larger for weaker students. Moreover, the program’s impacts scale roughly linearly with time compared to a shorter-term, smaller-scale pilot randomized controlled trial. The program’s developers used generative artificial intelligence to accelerate lesson plan development and adaptation to new settings. An observational pilot test of this adaptation in Uganda yielded comparable results to those of this study’s randomized controlled trial. The study developed a model in which basic skills constrain the development of advanced skills, which predicts the pattern of effects observed across early reading capabilities, and it makes forecasts about the future impacts of the program as it continues into second grade. |
| Date: | 2026–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11433 |
| By: | Soichiro SUGITA; Makiko NAKAMURO |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of class-size reduction on the quality of the classroom environment, exploiting the discontinuous variation in class size generated by Japan's statutory 40-student cap. A 10-student reduction improves composite indices of teacher-student relationships and classroom climate by 0.03–0.04 standard deviations respectively; school-reported discipline and violence also improve. Effects are stable across the pre- and post-COVID periods, concentrated in elementary grades, and largest where the prior classroom environment was weak, consistent with Lazear's disruption model. Effects on test scores are essentially zero. The benefits of smaller classes operate on the classroom environment rather than on academic achievement. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26060 |
| By: | Duflo, Esther; Dupas, Pascaline; Kremer, Michael |
| Abstract: | In 2008, we randomly assigned secondary school scholarships among 2, 064 youths in Ghana. This paper exploits fifteen years of follow-up data to examine the impact of access to free secondary education on career trajectories over the first part of the life cycle. Winning a scholarship increases the probability of secondary school graduation from 45% (in the control group) to 73% (in the treatment group), and leads to an increase in knowledge and skills. However, the entry of secondary school graduates (with or without scholarship) in the labor market is very gradual, as many attempt, over many years, to qualify for tertiary programs that are gateways for government jobs. By 2023, 12% of females and 15% of males in the control group have completed a tertiary program. The scholarship increases this share by 11 percentage points for females, but not at all for males. We do not observe significant labor market impacts for men at any point. In contrast, earnings gains of around 24% arise in 2020 and grow to 30% in 2023 for female scholarship recipients, who are 6.7 percentage points (100%) more likely than non-recipients to have a government job by then. We use a simple Harris-Todaro style model of a dual labor market with credit constraints to (a) explain the gendered impacts and (b) discuss the impact that generalized free secondary education would be expected to have in general equilibrium, under different regimes of hiring in the government sector. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19344 |
| By: | Duflo, Esther; Dupas, Pascaline; Spelke, Elizabeth; Walsh, Mark |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence on the intergenerational impacts of secondary education subsidies in a low-income context, leveraging a randomized controlled trial and 15-year longitudinal follow-up. For young women, receiving a scholarship for secondary school delays childbearing and marriage, and reduces unwanted pregnancies. Female scholarship recipients are more likely to marry a partner with tertiary education and their children have better early childhood development outcomes. In particular, we document a 45% reduction in under-three mortality as well as cognitive development gains of 0.25 standard deviations of test scores once children are of school age. The primary mechanism seems to be that more-educated caregivers have the knowledge and skills to safeguard their children’s health and stimulate their cognitive development. In contrast, we find no evidence of a positive impact for the children of male scholarship recipients, who tend to marry less educated partners. Together, these results suggest a key role for maternal education in child outcomes. We also estimate the cost-benefit ratio for secondary school scholarships and find that the impact on child survival alone is sufficient to make them a highly cost-effective investment. |
| JEL: | J13 O15 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19345 |
| By: | Roknuzzaman, Md; Uddin, Md Azhar; Shimul, Shafiun Nahin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between child marriage and women’s mental health in Bangladesh using nationally representative 2022 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data on 18, 987 ever-married women aged 15–49. Mental health is measured using PHQ-9 depression and GAD-7 anxiety scores. To address non-random selection into early marriage, we estimate doubly robust inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment models using premarital demographic, geographic, educational, and community-level covariates. In the pooled sample, child marriage has no statistically significant average effect on depression or anxiety after adjustment, despite higher unadjusted scores among child brides. However, this average masks important heterogeneity. Child marriage significantly worsens mental health among women with secondary schooling or above, increasing PHQ-9 scores by 0.224 points and GAD-7 scores by 0.166 points. Threshold estimates show that adverse effects are concentrated among women married before age 14. These findings show that the standard below-18 definition dilutes genuine harm concentrated among the youngest brides and more educated women, with direct implications for prevention policy. |
| Keywords: | Health Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404597 |
| By: | Goulas, Sofoklis; Gunawardena, Bhagya; Megalokonomou, Rigissa; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | Using Greek administrative data, we examine the impact of being randomly assigned to a classroom with a same-gender top-performing student on both short- and long-term educational outcomes. These top performers are tasked with keeping classroom attendance records, which positions them as role models. Both male and female students are influenced by the performance of a same-gender top performer and experience both spillover and conformist effects. However, only female students show significant positive effects from the presence of a same-gender role model. Specifically, female students improved their science test scores by 4 percent of a standard deviation, were 2.5 percentage points more likely to choose a STEM track, and were more likely to apply for and enrol in a STEM university degree 3 years later. These effects were most pronounced in lower-income neighbourhoods. Our findings suggest that same-gender peer role models could reduce the underrepresentation of qualified females in STEM fields by approximately 3 percent. We further validate our findings through a lab-in-the-field experiment, in which students rated the perceived influence of randomized hypothetical top-performer profiles. The results suggest that the influence of same-gender top performers is primarily driven by exposure-related factors (increased perception of distinction feasibility and self-confidence) rather than direct interactions. |
| JEL: | J24 J21 J16 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19432 |
| By: | Yuta TAKAHASHI; Naoki TAKAYAMA; Takashi UNAYAMA |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a method for estimating the distribution of completed parity by combining information on co-residing children across multiple censuses. Applying the method to the Japanese population censuses conducted from 1980 to 2020, we construct data on completed parity and completed fertility rates, by single year of birth and educational attainment, for women born between 1940 and 1980. The data reveal five key findings. First, completed fertility declined from 2.0 for the 1955 cohort to 1.4 for the 1970 cohort and then leveled off. The expansion of higher education accounts for only about 5 percent of the decline, while most of the decline reflects behavioral changes within educational groups. Second, the parity distribution shifted from one centered on two children to one with a high share of childless women. Third, an average decline in mothers’ mean completed parity, an increase in lifetime unmarried rate, and increase in lifetime childlessness among married women each account for about one-third of the fertility decline. Fourth, many of the additional lifetime unmarried women lived with their parents at age 50. Fifth, among lifetime unmarried women living with their parents, the proportion whose primary activity is “work” has remained high, while the proportion whose primary activity is “housework” has declined. These patterns are observed regardless of educational attainment, although the contribution of each factor differed across educational groups. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:26032 |
| By: | Gabriela Smarrelli (Center for Global Development); Esme Kadzamira (University of Malawi); Thi Le (Center for Global Development); Tionge Saka (University of Malawi) |
| Abstract: | Approximately one billion children worldwide report having experienced physical, emotional, or sexual violence, yet existing evidence suggests this figure substantially underestimates true prevalence, as individuals often avoid disclosing their experiences of violence. We study which survey methods yield more reliable measures of violence against children. We randomly assigned 6, 000 children aged 8 to 12 years across 251 schools in Malawi to respond to a survey using face-to-face (F2F) interviews or audio computer-assisted self-interviews (ACASI), administered either at the child’s home or school. We find that ACASI, relative to F2F, substantially increases the disclosure of physical and emotional violence from peers and school staff, regardless of survey location. Disclosure of sexual violence more than doubles when using ACASI and when surveys are conducted at school rather than the child’s home. These effects are consistent with the greater privacy provided by ACASI and the additional reassurance offered by school settings, which provide physical spaces that may more strongly signal to respondents that their answers are unlikely to be overheard, reducing social and emotional barriers to disclosure. Our results are robust to multiple checks examining social desirability bias, lapses in attention, and misunderstanding of survey questions, and suggest that ACASI offers a cost-effective approach to reducing systematic measurement error in surveys on sensitive topics. |
| Keywords: | measurement, survey methods, survey experiment, school-based violence, sexual violence, economics of education |
| JEL: | C81 C82 C83 I29 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:751 |
| By: | Martina Luskova; Nino Buliskeria; Ali Elminejad; Tomas Havranek; Zuzana Irsova; Stepan Jurajda; Marek Kapicka |
| Abstract: | We revisit a central estimate in the economics of education: the human-capital loss associated with COVID-19 school closures. Estimates of pandemic learning loss may be affected by publication bias, p-hacking, and the mechanical correlation between standardized effect sizes and their standard errors. We conduct a comprehensive multi-method assessment of bias by applying a wide range of correction techniques - including PET-PEESE, three-parameter selection models (3PSM), Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis (RoBMA), Meta-Analysis Instrumental Variable Estimation (MAIVE), Right-Truncated Meta-Analysis (RTMA), and multi-bias sensitivity analysis. Our preferred specifications, RoBMA and MAIVE, rely on different assumptions yet converge on an effect size of approximately -0.12 SD, equivalent to a learning loss of about 30% of a school year. Although some methods reveal signs of publication bias and selective reporting, these findings do not explain away the central finding: the COVID-19 learning deficit is economically meaningful and statistically robust. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.00580 |
| By: | Bellou, Andriana (University of Montreal); Cardia, Emanuela (University of Montreal) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of the Great Depression on college attainment by gender in the United States for cohorts born 1906–1920. Using state-level variation in Depression severity, we find that harsher conditions in the early 1930s are associated with small increases in educational attainment by 1940, with similar responses for men and women. Following these cohorts to 1960, more severe Depression exposure is linked to modest increases in men’s college attainment at the one- and two-year margins, with little effect on four-year completion. Women’s responses are more heterogeneous and generally imprecisely estimated. We further show that these patterns are stronger in areas with greater WWII mobilization: male attainment rises more strongly in highly mobilized states, while women’s responses remain limited and mixed. Overall, the results suggest that early-life exposure to the Depression, combined with wartime opportunities, may have contributed to modest gender differences in college attainment in the mid-twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | Great Depression, college gender gap, WWII mobilisation, GI Bill |
| JEL: | J1 N3 I0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18846 |
| By: | Hyatt, Kyle |
| Abstract: | Abstract Paper 1 supplied a descriptive measurement framework for compulsory student time, and Paper 2 supplied a proposed institutional account of the recognition boundary. This article does not recalculate, revise, or crosswalk either contribution. It addresses a bounded policy-design question: how a legislature might later specify a student-beneficial restricted public-account architecture without premising the proposal on compensable student labor, wage entitlement, damages, restitution, or a claim that education lacks value. A Protected Student Inclusion Account (PSIA) is the article’s proposed candidate restricted public-account architecture for later jurisdiction-specific consideration. The article compares candidate mechanisms as design objects with unresolved legal, benefits, custody, access, fiscal, and administrative dependencies. Transition capacity is treated only as an authorial normative design objective and a possible pilot evaluation domain. The illustrative deposit arithmetic reports nominal student deposits under disclosed inputs; it is not a fiscal note or a statement about legal authority, fiscal conditions, administrative performance, or outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ybptc_v1 |