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on Education |
| By: | Dadgar, Iman (Center for Education and Leadership Excellence); Nermo, Magnus (Department of Sociology, Stockholm University); Shahbazian, Roujman (Swedish Institute for Research (SOFI), Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how students’ relative academic rank in compulsory school affects entry into the teaching profession. Using population-wide Swedish administrative data, we link grade-9 GPA for cohorts attending grade 9 in 1990–1997 to detailed occupational outcomes observed at age 40. We measure relative position as within-school–cohort GPA rank and estimate rank effects by exploiting variation in ordinal position among students with similar absolute achievement. The empirical design includes school-by-cohort fixed effects and controls for absolute ability via national GPA-rank indicators interacted with grading-environment (school-type) measures, along with family background controls. We find that lower-ranked students are more likely to become teachers, but the pattern differs across teaching segments: low local rank predicts entry into compulsory and upper-secondary teaching, while very high local rank predicts university teaching; there is no clear relationship for pre-school teaching. Effects are concentrated among women and are strongest for women in high-achieving schools. Results are robust to alternative specifications. The findings highlight relative academic standing as an important, previously overlooked determinant of occupational choice into teaching. |
| Keywords: | Educational inequality; Teaching profession; Occupational choice; School position; Reference groups; Relative deprivation; Sweden |
| Date: | 2026–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhb:hastel:2026_001 |
| By: | Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Campo, Francesco (University of Padova); Lodigiani, Elisabetta (University of Padova); Miotto, Martina (University of Padova); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the factors influencing the intended college major choices of high school students in Italy, ranking the relative importance of expected earnings, perceived ability, and major-specific tastes, that we measure directly using a Coller and Williams game. We find that major-specific tastes and self-assessed ability are significantly more influential in shaping academic intentions than mean expected earnings at age 30. We estimate that a one standard deviation change in the taste for (resp. perceived ability in) a given major increases the odds of choosing that major (relative to Humanities, our benchmark scenario) by 136.4% (resp. 114.1%), far outweighing the 39.3% increase associated with a one standard deviation change in mean expected earnings. |
| Keywords: | major choice, Italy, expectations |
| JEL: | I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18444 |
| By: | Theresa Huebsch (University of Bonn); Robert Mahlstedt (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Pia Pinger (University of Cologne); Sonja Settele (University of Cologne); Helene Willadsen (National Research Centre for the Working Environment) |
| Abstract: | Using surveys with Danish students transitioning to secondary education, we study mental models of how gender and parental education shape academic performance. Students hold heterogeneous beliefs about performance gaps by gender and parental background, which appear to be shaped by within-family transmission and broader social environments. Open-text responses reveal that respondents link strong performance by girls and less socioeconomically privileged students to effort, while attributing privileged students success to external advantages. Mental models matter: beliefs about performance gaps predict enrollment in upper secondary education by gender and parental education and causally affect students’ self-assessments, intended effort, and educational aspirations, as shown in an information experiment with girls. We highlight two mechanisms: updating about the returns to effort and about gender-specific effort costs in response to observed gender performance gaps. Our findings advance the understanding of education choices and shed light on the determinants and effects of mental models in a high-stakes setting. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs, Education, Inequality |
| JEL: | D83 D84 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2603 |
| By: | Andersson, Linus (Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University); Dadgar, Iman (Center for Education and Leadership Excellence); Shahbazian, Roujman (Center for Education and Leadership Excellence) |
| Abstract: | Educational attainment is strongly associated with fertility and family formation, yet less is known about whether students’ relative standing within schools is linked to later demographic outcomes. This study examines whether 9th-grade rank within the school GPA distribution predicts completed fertility, marriage, and divorce by age 40. Using Swedish population-wide register data (N ≈ 726, 000), we compare students with similar national GPA but different relative school rank, applying school-by-cohort fixed effects to reduce selection bias. Results show that relative academic position is associated with demographic behavior net of absolute performance. Lower relative rank is linked to higher childlessness and fewer children for both women and men, and to lower marriage and higher divorce risks among men. Higher rank is primarily associated with delayed motherhood. The findings suggest that institutionalized social comparisons in compulsory schooling are linked to long-term family outcomes, consistent with reference group mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Marriage; Divorce; School position; Reference groups; Register Data |
| Date: | 2026–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhb:hastel:2026_003 |
| By: | Jesse Rothstein; Ini Umosen; Christopher R. Walters |
| Abstract: | We study the prospects for changes in school priorities to reduce income segregation in a context of centralized school assignment, accounting for behavioral responses to school offers. Promoting integration is a central objective for large urban school districts in the US, and reforms to school assignment priorities are a prominent means of pursuing this goal. Such efforts may be constrained by students' decisions to exit the public school system in response to less-preferred school offers. Using data on kindergarten applicants to the Oakland Unified School District (OUSD), we show that offers of spots at first-choice schools boost the likelihood that applicants remain in OUSD. Nevertheless, simulations show that policy reforms giving priority for low-income students at high-income schools can substantially reduce segregation with minimal impacts on retention in the district. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34957 |
| By: | Ethan Schmick; Allison Shertzer |
| Abstract: | Cities in the United States dramatically expanded spending on public education after World War I, with the average urban school district increasing per pupil expenditures by over 70 percent by 1924. We provide the first evaluation of these unprecedented investments in public education using a new dataset and plausibly exogenous growth in school spending generated by anti-German sentiment. We find that school resources significantly increased educational attainment and wages later in life, particularly for less advantaged children. Increases in expenditures can explain about 40 percent of the sizable increase in educational attainment of cohorts born between 1895 and 1913. |
| Keywords: | school spending; returns to educational resources |
| JEL: | H75 I22 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102897 |
| By: | Jeffrey T. Denning; Rachel L. Nesbit; Nolan G. Pope; Merrill Warnick |
| Abstract: | Average grades continue to rise in the United States, raising the question of how grade inflation impacts students. We provide comprehensive evidence on how teacher grading practices affect students' long-run success. Using administrative high school data from Los Angeles and from Maryland that is linked to postsecondary and earnings records, we develop and validate two teacher-level measures of grade inflation: one measuring average grade inflation and another measuring a teacher's propensity to give a passing grade. These measures of grade inflation are distinct from teacher value-added, with grade inflating teachers having moderately lower cognitive value-added and slightly higher noncognitive value-added. These two measures also differentially impact students' long-term outcomes. Being assigned a higher average grade inflating teacher reduces a student's future test scores, the likelihood of graduating from high school, college enrollment, and ultimately earnings. In contrast, passing grade inflation reduces the likelihood of being held back and increases high school graduation, with limited long-run effects. The cumulative impact is economically significant: a teacher with one standard deviation higher average grade inflation reduces the present discounted value of lifetime earnings of their students by $213, 872 per year. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34952 |
| By: | Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Parag A. Pathak; Christopher R. Walters |
| Abstract: | We examine two approaches to improving urban school systems: changing who gets to go to existing schools (reallocation) and restructuring school portfolios through closures and reconstitution (resource augmentation). Using data from New York City high schools, we estimate models of school effects allowing for both vertical school quality differences and horizontal student-specific match effects. While sophisticated reallocation policies that optimize student-school matches can generate modest educational gains, they are constrained by limited seats at highly effective schools. Simple resource-augmentation policies targeting replacement of low-performing schools achieve comparable improvements with less systemic disruption. Analysis of NYC's school closures reveals that basic graduation rate metrics effectively identify struggling schools, suggesting complex value-added models may be unnecessary for targeting closure decisions. Our findings indicate that capacity constraints, rather than poor school matching, primarily drive educational inequality. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34936 |
| By: | Gershoni, Naomi (Ben Gurion University); Stryjan, Miri (Aalto University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Online instruction can expand access to education for disadvantaged groups, yet it often deepens performance gaps. We study its impact on high-stakes exam outcomes using administrative data on five cohorts of students in 31 Israeli vocational colleges and the abrupt shift to online instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this setting, exams were held in person and graded centrally, ensuring comparability to pre-pandemic performance. A difference-in-differences design comparing outcomes within students and across cohorts shows significant declines in exam attendance and demonstrated knowledge after the switch to online instruction. These effects are not explained by local infection rates or childcare responsibilities and are especially pronounced among Arabic-speaking minority students, regardless of socioeconomic status. Drawing on variation in infrastructure, residential crowdedness, language of instruction, and prior academic performance we identify poor internet access as a key mechanism. In addition, while the negative effects on majority students are concentrated among lower-performing students, for minority students the effects are, if anything, larger among high achievers. |
| Keywords: | online instruction, education and inequality. minorities, vocational education, higher education, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18445 |
| By: | Veronica Frisancho (CAF Development Bank of Latin America); Sebastian Gallegos (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez); Constanza González (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez) |
| Abstract: | Do second chances at a high-stakes admission exam yield long-term gains? Leveraging fifteen years of Chilean administrative data and an RDD, we examine the causal effects of retaking on educational and labor market trajectories. Narrowly missing a preferred program cutoff triggers a 44% increase in retaking, leading to substantial score gains (0.27 SD) and improved placement and enrollment chances. However, these immediate gains do not persist. Retakers graduate at the same rate and from programs with similar earnings and employability profiles as their counterfactual peers. Our results suggest that retaking serves as a reshuffling mechanism yielding null net welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | high-stakes exams, developing countries, Latin America, educational policy, college enrollment, college graduation, college choice |
| JEL: | J62 N36 I24 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2026-004 |
| By: | McNamara, Sarah; Klein, Thilo |
| Abstract: | Educational tracking - separating students into different classes, tracks, or schools based on ability - is relatively commonplace worldwide, despite mixed evidence concerning how it affects student outcomes. Our new empirical analysis for secondary-school- aged children in Hungary provides causal evidence that students benefit from high-track attendance in terms of academic achievement and university aspirations. However, differential accession to the highest track conditional on socioeconomic background may exacerbate educational inequalities. Students from more deprived backgrounds are less likely to access the highest track, though we find they benefit at least as much from high-track attendance as their relatively better-off peers. Similarly, students with lower levels of prior achievement equally benefit from high-track attendance in terms of learning gains, and we find only minor evidence of academic peer spillovers. Overly restrictive tracking policies may therefore unnecessarily threaten educational equality goals, and in the German context, where tracking has been a cornerstone of the education system since the 19th century, particularly rigid and early tracking policies may further amplify these effects. Rethinking Germany's approach to tracking means re-centring discussions of equality in light of this new evidence for the efficiency-equity trade-off. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:338248 |
| By: | Lavy, Victor (University of Warwick, Hebrew University, and NBER); Shayo, Moses (Hebrew University of Jerusalem, King’s College London) |
| Abstract: | We study how teachers' rule violations in grading affect students' ethical behavior. Using administrative data from high-stakes exams, combining teacher-assigned internal scores with externally graded national exam scores, we track teacher grading violations and subsequent student cheating. We explore three potential mechanisms: imitation (learning that rules can be broken), positive reciprocity (responding favorably to favorable treatment), and negative reciprocity (retaliating against unfavorable treatment). Exploiting within-student variation in exposure to different teachers, we find students are significantly more likely to cheat when teachers break the rules to their detriment (systematically undergrading), consistent with both imitation and negative reciprocity. However, when teachers systematically overgrade, responses vary by community structure. In heterogeneous communities, overgrading increases student cheating, suggesting imitation dominates. In homogeneous communities, students respond by cheating less, consistent with positive reciprocity dominating. This pattern holds across multiple homogeneity measures, including surname concentration and residential clustering. Survey measures of mutual respect and support between students and teachers confirm this pattern. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:796 |
| By: | Gschwendt, Christian (University of Bern); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Zollner, Thea S. (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of technological change will critically depend on how future workers invest in their human capital. Yet, little is known about how future workers themselves evaluate and choose their educational and occupational paths in light of emerging technologies. This paper examines how adolescents currently at the school-to-work transition stage value working with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in their future occupations, and how automation risk and opportunities for continuing education shape these preferences. We field a discrete-choice experiment among a nationally representative sample of over 7, 000 Swiss adolescents aged around 15. We find that adolescents generally exhibit an aversion to collaborating with GenAI at work, with females consistently more averse than males. However, preferences are nuanced: adolescents welcome greater GenAI collaboration, provided that GenAI usage levels remain moderate and that it is not accompanied by increases in job automation risk. Finally, our findings suggest that AI-related educational opportunities in occupations improve attitudes towards working with GenAI across genders. |
| Keywords: | occupational choice, gender gaps, GenAI, choice experiment, continuing education, automation risk |
| JEL: | I24 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18456 |
| By: | Persson, Rebecka (Center for Education and Leadership Excellence) |
| Abstract: | This working paper evaluates the measurement properties of teacher collaboration items from a survey distributed by LegiLexi to Swedish primary school teachers (N = 2, 124). Nine items capturing the frequency and quality of professional interactions with teacher teams, school leaders, and broader school climate were examined using descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency estimates, and intraclass correlations. A two-factor confirmatory model distinguishing horizontal collaboration (teacher team) from vertical collaboration (principal/school leaders), with correlated uniquenesses for parallel item content, provided excellent fit to the data (χ²(5) = 7.37, p = .195, CFI = .999, RMSEA = .016). The two factors were moderately correlated (r = .36), confirming empirically distinct dimensions. Preliminary school-level correlations with student literacy outcomes from LegiLexi reading assessments were explored. The results establish a measurement foundation for future research on teacher collaboration and student reading outcomes in Swedish primary schools. |
| Keywords: | teacher collaboration; measurement validation; confirmatory factor analysis; primary school; LegiLexi; Swedish School Inspectorate |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhb:hastel:2026_002 |
| By: | Lecoursonnais, Maël; Mutgan, Selcan |
| Abstract: | Social exposure is typically studied within isolated domains, such as neighborhoods, schools, or workplaces, yet individuals encounter these environments concurrently in their daily lives. In this study, using nearly 30 years of individual-level data on schoolmates, colleagues, and neighbors, we track lower secondary school students into adulthood and examine whether exposure to affluence and poverty in key life domains—neighborhoods, schools, and workplaces—overlaps, how it changes over the life course, and for whom trajectories of exposure differ. Our findings document strong correlations in exposure to affluence and poverty across different domains and highly stratified trajectories of exposure over the life course by socioeconomic background. We also find that 17% of individuals from the lowest-income backgrounds are consistently exposed to high-income contexts across all three domains. These results underscore the enduring inequality in exposure to affluence and poverty over the life course and highlight the potential of socioeconomic integration to disrupt cycles of segregation. |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:eunwc_v2 |
| By: | Paul Bingley; Lorenzo Cappellari (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Konstantinos Tatsiramos |
| Abstract: | We develop a model that links education–outcome gradients to intergenerational transmission, distinguishing joint from parent-specific channels under assortative mating. Using Danish administrative data on family quartets, we estimate the own education–outcome gradient and, in addition, intergenerational gradients in long-run earnings, disposable income, assets, and wealth. Gradients differ sharply across domains: for earnings and income, joint transmission matters alongside individual-specific heterogeneity; for assets and especially wealth, gradients are dominated by parent-specific channels. Exploiting Danish schooling reforms, we show that the composition of financial gradients varies with access to schooling. |
| Keywords: | Assortative mating, Education gradients, Intergenerational mobility. |
| JEL: | J62 D31 J12 I24 E21 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def152 |
| By: | Rebolledo, Nicolás; Almeyda, Gonzalo; Granada Donato, David; Lombardi, María; Oubiña, Victoria; Zoido, Pablo |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates a randomized remote tutoring program implemented in Paraguay, targeting 1, 650 students in grades four through six with low baseline performance in Spanish language. The intervention provided two weekly 30-minute one-on-one tutoring sessions over the phone for eight weeks, using a differentiated instruction model tailored to students initial diagnostic assessments. Treated students showed significant learning gains: those offered tutoring scored 0.11 standard deviations higher on standardized language tests compared to controls. Effects were consistent across sociodemographic subgroups and baseline achievement levels. Leveraging the random assignment of students to tutors, we estimate individual tutor value added, and find that tutor effects account for 15% of the variation in student outcomes. Tutors in the top quintile have an average value added of 0.38 standard deviations, almost four times the overall effect of the program, underscoring the importance of individual tutor effectiveness in scaling tutoring interventions successfully. |
| JEL: | J20 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14534 |
| By: | Olivia Feldman; Joshua M. Hyman; Matthew L. McGann |
| Abstract: | The feeling or impression that students get about enrolling in a particular college may be an important determinant of their college application decision. Combining institutional records on college campus tour participants over the last decade with hourly weather information, we leverage tour weather as a plausibly exogenous shock to students' "feel" for attending the toured college. We find that poor tour weather reduces participants’ likelihood of applying. Tour participants, for example, are 10 percent less likely to apply when their tour is hot and 8 percent less likely when precipitation occurs during their tour. Using administrative data documenting where all tour participants enroll in college, we find that tour weather has little to no impact on the quality or type of college that participants ultimately attend. Nevertheless, our results suggest that students' "feel" for attending a college can play an important role in the college application decision. |
| JEL: | I20 I23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34944 |
| By: | Epper, Thomas (CNRS, IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France); Ibsen, Kristoffer (Aarhus University); Koch, Alexander (Aarhus University); Nafziger, Julia (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | University dropout is costly, making it a policy priority to identify factors that predict dropout. Using a survey experiment with incoming first-year students linked to long-run administrative outcomes, we assess which information improves dropout prediction beyond standard university records. A small number of targeted, study-specific survey items - especially motivation and expectations about degree completion - substantially improve predictive performance. By contrast, widely used measures of general preferences and traits (such as grit and self-control) add little incremental value - a result that we qualitatively replicate in a large population. Our findings suggest inexpensive, scalable ways to improve dropout predictions. |
| Keywords: | dropout, non-cognitive skills, motivation, economic preferences, beliefs, education, machine learning |
| JEL: | I23 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18439 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica |
| Abstract: | Although primary school enrollment has steadily increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, enrollment in secondary school remains generally low in comparison with other regions (Evans and Mendez Acosta 2021). In Ethiopia, enrollment in lower secondary school roughly doubled over the past decade to reach an estimated 46 percent in 2021–2022, but substantial heterogeneity exists across rural and urban areas and across poorer and richer households (Tiruneh and Molla 2024). In rural areas, long distances from home to school often pose a substantial barrier to secondary school enrollment, especially for poor households. In addition to the real or perceived risks of insecurity linked to attendance – encountering insecure conditions along the route, or risks for youth who reside away from home to attend – these lengthy distances imply substantial out-of-pocket costs for transportation or accommodation, and households may struggle to manage these costs (Leight et al. 2022). Limited post-primary educational attainment can have substantial adverse effects for youth, limiting their opportunities for future employment and income generation and increasing the likelihood of early marriage for girls (Giacobino et al. 2024). This project note reports the main findings from a randomized trial conducted in rural Ethiopia, which assessed the effects of a scholarship for lower secondary school students (ninth and tenth grade) targeting extremely poor youth. We find that the provision of a scholarship led to a 12-percentage-point increase in the probability of secondary school enrollment two years later compared to youth who did not receive a scholarship, an effect that was greatest among students who received early notification about the scholarship (one year before eligibility). There was no change in attendance or academic performance, suggesting that students in the treatment arm performed as well as those in the control arm. Some evidence also indicated a small decline in the likelihood of child marriage and an enhancement in youth well-being. Overall, the findings suggest that the scholarship may be a valuable intervention to increase secondary school attainment, particularly if announced earlier; however, a third of youth who passed the primary school exam and were offered a scholarship still did not enroll. This suggests there are other important barriers to secondary school progression in this sample. |
| Keywords: | scholarship; secondary education; randomized controlled trials; rural areas; poverty; education; youth; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshrs:178139 |
| By: | Keshav Agrawal; Susan Athey; Ayush Kanodia; Shanjukta Nath; Emil Palikot |
| Abstract: | Can personalized recommendations improve engagement in educational technology? We design, test, and scale a collaborative filtering system for Freadom, an English-learning app for Indian children. A randomized controlled trial (RCT) with 7, 750 students shows that personalization, deployed in a single content section, increases engagement by 60% in that section and by 14% app-wide. We then exploit an eligibility threshold in a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to track effects over five months of deployment. For user cohorts receiving personalization during deployment, RDD estimates exceed RCT benchmark by a factor of 2.5, opposite of the “voltage drop" typically observed in policy scale-ups. This provides evidence that, for algorithmic interventions, RCT estimates may be lower bounds on scaled impact rather than upper bounds. However, personalization benefits are front-loaded. Gains concentrate in users’ first weeks, with diminishing returns thereafter. This pattern, combined with the sharp decline in predicted match quality as users exhaust their best content matches, suggests that content availability rather than algorithmic sophistication becomes the binding constraint. |
| JEL: | C21 C93 I21 L81 M30 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34950 |
| By: | Bolivar, Osmar (Analytics, Values and Intelligence Laboratory); Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo (World Bank); Balthrop, Andrew (University of Tennessee, Knoxville) |
| Abstract: | Road infrastructure boosts economic opportunities and thus contributes to poverty alleviation. This paper investigates the causal impact of paved primary roads on poverty and income mobility in Ecuador, with particular attention to the mechanisms through which these effects materialize. exploiting variation in road expansion between 2012 and 2019, we track the construction of new major roads and link this information to socioeconomic outcomes reported in the national household survey. To achieve representativeness at a fine geographical scale, we employ the max-p region algorithm. Using staggered difference-in-differences estimators, we identify the causal effects of road infrastructure on poverty reduction and income dynamics. The findings indicate that access to paved major roads significantly reduces poverty rates overall. Middle-income households benefit from income growth following road access and these gains are attributable primarily to improvements in employment quality rather than increases in employment rates, with the largest effects concentrated in the primary sector. |
| Keywords: | road infrastructure, poverty, middle class, Ecuador |
| JEL: | I32 O18 H54 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18451 |
| By: | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Karim, Ridwan |
| Abstract: | Identifying threshold effects of extreme heat is key to understanding the true scale of climate-related risks to human capital development. This paper investigates how extreme heat shapes adolescent schooling and labor outcomes in rural Bangladesh, combining household survey data on adolescents with high-resolution temperature records to estimate the effects of prior-year, cumulative, and early-life heat exposure. We identify a precise temperature threshold at 36°C, above which each additional day reduces school attendance by 3.1 percentage points and increases child labor by 2.5 percentage points. Below this threshold, moderate heat (30-36°C) shows minimal single-year effects, though cumulative exposure over three years reveals significant negative impacts, indicating limited household adaptation. Effects are disproportionately concentrated among girls, who shift primarily toward household work rather than wage labor. Three interconnected channels drive these effects: heat-induced income shocks (11% reduction in household income), increased domestic labor demands from heat-related illness, and restrictive gender norms that amplify these impacts by magnifying girls’ household responsibilities. Extending the analysis to early-life conditions, exposure during the first 1, 000 days also reduces adolescent schooling probability by 3.4-3.8 percentage points, with strongest effects at ages one and two. Boys show slightly larger early-life effects, contrasting with girls’ greater vulnerability to contemporaneous exposure, suggesting distinct mechanisms operating through biological development versus gendered household labor allocation. The findings point to both immediate income-mediated responses and long-term developmental pathways, with implications for temperature-triggered social protection, school infrastructure investments, and early-life health interventions. |
| Keywords: | heat stress; schools; children; rural areas; labour; heatwaves; child labour; climate change; adolescents; Bangladesh; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180558 |