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on Education |
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Issue of 2026–10–26
nineteen papers chosen by João Carlos Correia Leitão, Universidade da Beira Interior |
| By: | Wookun Kim; Fernanda da Silva |
| Abstract: | We study how industrial robots affect human capital investment during high school. Using Texas administrative records and an instrument based on European robot adoption, we find that exposure reduces dropout, raises observed completion, and shifts coursework toward college preparation and away from vocational subjects. Advanced coursework increases across grades, while dropout reductions and gains in quantitative coursework are concentrated in upper grades. Boys reduce vocational coursework more, narrowing gender differences in course taking, whereas girls increase advanced coursework more, widening their advantage in college preparation. Adjustment to automation is already underway in high school, through continued schooling and curricular choices. |
| Keywords: | industrial robots and automation, human capital investment, high school education, course choice, gender differences |
| JEL: | I21 J24 J16 O33 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13057 |
| By: | Shruti Jha (University of California, San Diego); John A. List (The University of Chicago Department of Economics and Australian National University and also NBER); Rebecca C. Royer (The University of Chicago Department of Economics); Anya Samek (University of California, San Diego Rady School of Management and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Do early investments in parents pay off even when treatment effects for children appear to fade out quickly? We answer this question by leveraging a field experiment in which households with 3-5 year-old children were randomized into a parenting program, a preschool, or a control group, combined with a natural experiment (Covid-19 school closures) that occurred ten years later. Prior to the closures, treatment effects on academic achievement had faded to zero across all groups. Yet, with Covid-19 school closures, effects of the parenting program re-emerge: test scores in control and preschool groups drop by roughly 0.25-0.30 SD, whereas scores in the parenting group drop by only 0.11 SD (difference: p = 0.01). Our findings suggest that parenting programs can generate latent human capital that only becomes visible when complementary school inputs are removed. This result is consonant with parental and school investments acting as substitutes in skill production. Because this latent parental capacity pays off precisely when school inputs fail, standard measurement tools for early childhood programs can miss crucial state-contingent value. |
| JEL: | C93 I26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-131 |
| By: | Alberto Ortega; Pietro Pellerito; Patrick S. Turner |
| Abstract: | More than 23 million adults in the United States lack a high school diploma, and most who return to school drop out before graduating. We evaluate a randomized intervention of adult high school students in which coaches delivered text messages that encouraged persistence. We find that assignment to treatment increased graduation by 4.9 percentage points, and the effect of message receipt among compliers is 9.3 percentage points, a 41 percent increase relative to the control mean. The intervention operated on the intensive margin by increasing the number of courses completed, but did not affect student enrollment. The effects of the intervention are concentrated among students assigned to experienced coaches, who customized their messages more extensively. We contextualize the economic impact of the low-cost intervention by comparing labor market earnings of graduates to non-graduates, which implies an earnings benefit of $149 per treated student over four years. |
| JEL: | C93 D91 I21 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35923 |
| By: | Caterina Pavese (University of Bologna); Simon ter Meulen (ifo Institute, LMU Munich); Ludger Woessmann (LMU Munich, ifo Institute) |
| Abstract: | Does direct integration into native schools or temporary placement in separate schools better promote the education and cultural assimilation of refugee children? In the Netherlands, primary-school-aged refugee children are placed in either integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality. By contrast, all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this institutional setting in two-way fixed-effects models with age-at-arrival and municipality fixed effects. Using rich administrative data, we find that integrated schooling reduces educational attainment at age 18, particularly for children of lower-educated parents. At the same time, integrated schooling increases cultural assimilation, measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage among teenage women, particularly for children from non-Muslim-majority countries. A distinctive feature of separated schooling that may account for its positive educational effect is that it allows employing teachers specialized in native-language teaching for non-native speakers. |
| Keywords: | refugee children; schools; integration; educational attainment; contraceptives; |
| JEL: | I24 I21 J13 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:588 |
| By: | Gößl, Thomas; Makles, Anna; Schneider, Kerstin; Zuchanek, Kevin J. |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of losing admission lotteries in a centralized secondary school choice system with early academic tracking. Using administrative student panel data from Bremen, Germany, we exploit random tie-breaking within priority groups under an immediate acceptance mechanism. Losing admission lotteriessubstantially changesstudents' educational environment: lottery losers travel farther to school, experience greater disruption of peer networks, and attend schools with less advantaged socioeconomic compositions and lower average academic performance. We also document selective negative effects on standardised test scores and school-leaving certificates. While students with a migration background are much more likely to experience a lottery loss because they enter competitive lottery pools more frequently, native German students tend to experience larger relative changes in their school environment and are more likely to mitigate these costs by opting out of the public system and enrolling in private schools. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen die Folgen einer Niederlage bei Zulassungslotterien in einem zentralisierten Schulwahlsystem mit früher Differenzierung nach Schulformen. Auf Grundlage administrativer Schülerpaneldaten aus Bremen nutzen wir die zufällige Vergabe von Schulplätzen innerhalb gleicher Prioritätsgruppen im Rahmen eines Immediate-Acceptance-Verfahrens, um die Folgen einer Lotterieniederlage zu identifizieren. Eine Niederlage bei der Zulassungslotterie verändert das schulische Umfeld erheblich: Betroffene Schülerinnen und Schüler haben längere Schulwege, werden häufiger von ihren bisherigen Mitschülerinnen und Mitschülern getrennt und besuchen Schulen mit einer sozioökonomisch weniger begünstigten Schülerschaft und einem geringeren durchschnittlichen Leistungsniveau. Darüber hinaus zeigen sich punktuelle negative Effekte auf standardisierte Testergebnisse und erreichte Schulabschlüsse. Schülerinnen und Schüler mit Migrationshintergrund verlieren deutlich häufiger eine Zulassungslotterie, da sie häufiger an Lotterien um stark nachgefragte Schulplätze teilnehmen. Schülerinnen und Schüler ohne Migrationshintergrund erfahren infolge einer Lotterieniederlage hingegen tendenziell größere relative Veränderungen ihres schulischen Umfelds und wechseln häufiger auf eine Privatschule, um die damit verbundenen Kosten abzumildern. |
| Keywords: | two-sided matching, school choice, immediate acceptance, admission lotteries, non-compliance |
| JEL: | I24 I26 I28 C78 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:344105 |
| By: | Cristina Borra; Pilar Cuevas-Ruiz; Almudena Sevilla |
| Abstract: | We examine the long-term e!ects of maternal general education on infant health, leveraging a nationwide secondary school reform in Spain that expanded academic instruction without increasing years of schooling. Using newly digitized enrollment data linked to administrative birth records, we find that the reform significantly reduced very preterm birth and overall prematurity, with gains concentrated at the lower tail of the gestational age distribution. Mechanism evidence from high-quality adult survey data is consistent with reform-induced improvements in women’s information-processing skills, reductions in risky prenatal behaviors, higher labor force participation, and more e!ective family planning. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2026-10 |
| By: | Hanna Brosch; Christina Langer; Philipp Lergetporer; Sandra Mueller; Harald Pfeifer; Nele Tschoepe |
| Abstract: | Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) expand the set of tasks that middle-skilled, early-career workers can successfully perform? In a field experiment with 673 final-year IT apprentices at twelve German vocational schools, we randomly assign access to AI for completing occupation-specific tasks. To identify task expansion, we study tasks both within the apprenticeship curriculum and deliberately beyond it. AI raises productivity substantially across all task types, with gains tending to be larger on tasks where performance without AI is lowest. Crucially, productivity increases by 26–31 percentage points on tasks beyond apprentices’ formal training, providing direct evidence of AI-enabled task expansion. These productivity gains do not come at the cost of reduced immediate task comprehension. Treatment effects are generally larger among apprentices with above-median AI literacy. |
| Keywords: | generative artificial intelligence, field experiment, productivity, task expansion, middle-skilled workers, apprenticeships |
| JEL: | J24 O33 C93 I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13045 |
| By: | Hansz, Martín; Rivas, María Eugenia; Borja Plaza, Leonel Alejandro; Sánchez González, Santiago; Sabogal-Cardona, Orlando |
| Abstract: | School absenteeism remains a significant challenge across Latin America and the Caribbean, with serious implications for educational trajectories, particularly among vulnerable students. While absenteeism is determined by multiple factors, increasing attention has focused on how physical accessibility and travel conditions affect school attendance, particularly under adverse weather conditions. In Montevideo, where a substantial share of students walk to school, rainfall emerges as a particularly relevant disruptor. In this context, this study analyses the extent to which the quality of infrastructure providing access to schools mitigates the impact of rainfall on school attendance in Montevideo. To this end, a panel of data at student-day level is constructed, integrating georeferenced administrative data on students and schools, geospatial information on road and pedestrian infrastructure, and daily rainfall records. Based on this dataset, discrete choice models are estimated to assess the differential impact of rainfall on the probability of school absenteeism, considering the quality and availability of road and pedestrian infrastructure for school access. The results show that rainfall significantly increases the probability of school absenteeism in Montevideo, an effect that is mitigated under better transport infrastructure conditions, particularly where paved roads and pedestrian infrastructure are available. However, this tends not to be the context of the most vulnerable students, who are disproportionately exposed to poorer infrastructure conditions, compounding existing inequalities and increasing their exposure to rainfall disruptions, ultimately affecting effective access to education. Overall, the results indicate that better transport infrastructure can mitigate the effects of rainfall on school attendance, which provides relevant evidence for public policy design, highlighting the need to coordinate education, transport and climate resilience agendas. |
| JEL: | I24 R41 R42 Q54 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14783 |
| By: | Cecilia H. Moreira; Steven L. Puller; Ini Umosen |
| Abstract: | School choice can weaken the link between residential neighborhood and educational opportunity only if students can reach the schools available to them. We study school choice in Chicago, where high schoolers can choose among schools throughout the city but generally rely on public transit, making the structure of the transit network a key determinant of opportunity. Using student-level rankings and public transit travel times, we document two systematic patterns: Black students are less likely to rank top-rated schools first and face longer public transit times to such schools. We estimate a discrete choice model to separate the value placed on schools from the costs of reaching them. We find that high schools vary substantially in how they are valued and that there is a high degree of agreement across racial groups in their relative ranking. However, transit times vary significantly across neighborhoods, generating racial differences in demand for top-rated schools. Counterfactually, giving Black students the travel times of white students increases demand for top-rated schools by 23 percentage points. Finally, we identify underserved neighborhoods where public transit access constrains demand and quantify how targeted bus service would increase demand for high-quality schools. Our counterfactuals quantify how transportation expands school access. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 R4 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35915 |
| By: | Hellsten, Mark (The Ratio Institute) |
| Abstract: | Despite growing policy interest in AI workforce development, surprisingly little is known about what defines these workers, or indeed if they differ from their occupational peers. Using a novel matched vacancy-hire dataset linking Swedish job postings to the individuals hired to fill them, drawn from register data on the entire Swedish population, I study the characteristics of workers who develop and apply AI. Observable traits including high cognitive ability, a tertiary degree in STEM subjects, and a recent migrant background largely explain occupational sorting. Of these, only higher education, prior AI experience, and a science degree set them apart within occupation. I then use earnings as a window onto unobservable differences: AI workers earn approximately 5% more than their peers, entirely explained by firm-level wages. However, AI workers with a doctorate degree stand out sharply in both traits and earnings, indicating that AI workers split into segments that differ by the complexity of their skills and tasks. Taken together, these results point to two distinct policy levers: the supply of average AI workers, termed AI integrators, can be expanded via STEM education participation, while the elite AI developers are supplied by researchers moving to the private sector. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Wage premium; Labor demand; Skills; Technology diffusion |
| JEL: | D22 J24 M20 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0393 |
| By: | Hervelin, Jérémy; Frouard, Camille |
| Abstract: | France's apprenticeship system, which combines firm-based training with academic instruction, has expanded rapidly in recent years, especially at the university level. Unlike most European countries, France allows apprenticeships all the way up to master's degrees, a trend significantly accelerated by the 2018 Loi pour la liberté de choisir son avenir professionnel. The reform liberalised programme creation, simplified funding, and introduced strong financial incentives, leading to a twelvefold rise in higher education apprenticeships between 2000 and 2025. Drawing on administrative data and Hervelin and Merran (2026), we show that apprentices have higher employment and wage outcomes than non-apprentice students. However, we also show that the expansion of the system has coincided with more contract terminations, poorer matching quality, and potentially sizable windfall effects, as firms rely on subsidised apprentices rather than hire new regular employees. Public expenditure has tripled since 2018, raising concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and programme efficiency. Future policy should prioritise high-school apprenticeships (where matches are stronger) while strengthening links to the university labour market to improve outcomes and ensure sustainable public spending. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:344128 |
| By: | Andrew Smith; Alfonso Flores-Lagunes; Maria Zhu |
| Abstract: | Over 15 percent of college graduates in the United States graduate with more than one major. While much research exists on the returns to different individual majors, less is known about the causal effects of double majoring. This study provides novel estimates on the returns to those who choose to double major as an undergraduate. We improve on previous studies that rely on controls for observable characteristics by addressing selection concerns in two notable ways. First, we control for institution-specific differences that may influence both the decision to double major and subsequent earnings using proprietary data by including institution fixed effects. Second, we adopt a partial identification approach to address non-random selection into double majoring within institutions. Results broadly align with estimates from prior studies at the aggregate level, but reveal notable gender differences not previously detected. Women experience an earnings return to double majoring of approximately 5 percent, while the return for men is statistically negligible. Our analysis suggests that this discrepancy is consistent with double majors serving as a signaling effect in the labor market, which may help offset the gender pay gap. |
| Keywords: | double majoring; returns to education; gender wage gap; labor market signaling; human capital; college major choice |
| JEL: | I26 J16 J31 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-60 |
| By: | Brito Rebolledo, Emilia Javiera; Contreras, Dante; Libuy, Nicolás |
| Abstract: | Severe health events are among the most common shocks households face, and in low- and middle-income countries their consequences are absorbed largely within the family. We study how a parents severe illness affects adolescents' education in Chile. Using linked administrative records for the universe of school-age children and quasi-random variation in the occurrence and timing of parents first cancer hospitalizations, we compare exposed students with untreated classmates in a stacked difference-in-differences design. The shock reduces school enrollment and attendance and raises chronic absenteeism, with effects that persist for up to four years and roughly double for high-severity cancers. Disruptions are substantially larger for girls, consistent with caregiving and household responsibilities falling disproportionately on them. The educational response varies little with households' pre-shock labor market position, and children's hospitalizations do not rise. These findings point to an intergenerational cost of parental illness and a role for social protection in mitigating it. |
| Keywords: | Parental health shocks;School engagement;School absenteeism;human capital;Cancer;Chile |
| JEL: | I14 I21 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14777 |
| By: | Tim Ederer |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how career dynamics shape teacher spatial sorting using data on Peru's centralized teacher allocation. I develop a dynamic two-sided matching model and identify teacher and school preferences from observed assignments and schools' discretionary evaluations. I use the estimated model to correct teacher value-added estimates for two-sided endogenous selection. The analysis reveals the existence of a spatial job ladder that dynamically sorts more effective teachers into urban schools, contributing to spatial inequality in student achievement. Targeted mobility restrictions can reduce the urban-rural effectiveness gap by 76 percent, but avoiding adverse selection requires compensating teachers for the implied welfare loss, highlighting an inherent recruitment–retention trade-off. |
| Keywords: | teacher spatial sorting, dynamic matching, teacher value-added |
| JEL: | J45 J62 I24 R23 C78 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13063 |
| By: | Sultan Mehmood; Rinchan Ali Mirza; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how past ideological state-building constrains future reform. In Pakistan, General Zia’s regime (1977–1988) embedded religious identity into law, education, and political life. Two decades later, General Musharraf (1999–2008) sought to reverse course by pursuing a competing vision of national renewal. Leveraging a newly assembled district-level panel spanning half a century and an array of difference- in-differences strategies, we show that liberalizing reforms under Musharraf triggered a severe backlash in districts previously Islamized by Zia’s policies, reflected in heightened political violence and rising electoral support for Islamist parties. Evidence supports a mechanism In which Zia’s Islamization increased exposure to religious extremism among school-age cohorts. Relative to earlier cohorts, these cohorts were more likely to attend madrasas (religious seminaries) teaching more hard line religious doctrine. The districts that later display backlash also exhibit higher early marriage rates among girls, slower gains in female literacy, and greater Qur’an readership, consistent with a reorientation toward more conservative social and political preferences. These findings suggest that when states fuse Islamist ideology with governance, they create enduring constraints on future policy change. Past ideological investments can thus limit the effectiveness of later efforts at secularization or reform. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-16 |
| By: | Lee Crawfurd (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Clark and Nielsen (2026) assemble a large dataset of quasi-experimental studies and argue that the causal return to an extra year of schooling is close to zero once one corrects for the selective publication of statistically significant findings. If correct, this would overturn a central pillar of human capital theory and weaken the empirical case for investing in education. This comment re-examines their own data with the standard battery of publication-bias corrections, including methods that guard against spuriously precise estimates and against p-hacking. Every method points to a return of around 5–6% per additional year of schooling—positive, statistically significant, and far from zero—and the estimate stays well above zero even under the most conservative variants. Clark and Nielsen’s near-zero figure comes instead from a bespoke procedure that assumes large numbers of negative-return studies were suppressed; the distribution of published estimates does not support that assumption, and the same procedure understates even a genuine, positive return in simulation. Publication bias in this literature is real but modest: corrected for properly, the evidence is inconsistent with a near-zero causal return. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, meta-analysis, publication bias, PET-PEESE, selection models |
| Date: | 2026–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:756 |
| By: | Kirill Borusyak; Rafael Dix-Carneiro; Brian K. Kovak |
| Abstract: | A commonly used migration regression relates population changes to local labor demand shocks, often yielding small or statistically insignificant coefficients despite sizable effects on labor market outcomes. We argue that such findings need not imply that mobility is unresponsive to local economic conditions. Rather, conventional migration regressions can be biased, as they do not reflect how workers choose among competing locations. In a parsimonious equilibrium model, local population growth depends on differences between local shocks and those in relevant destinations; when these shocks are correlated, estimated responses are attenuated. Moreover, with industry-level shocks, standard shift-share measures misrepresent locations’ effective exposure, leading to further attenuation. Using simulation experiments based on Brazilian and German administrative data, we show attenuation can exceed 50% and that conventional regression estimates can be highly imprecise. We propose theory-grounded empirical approaches that correct the biases, deliver estimates with a clear structural interpretation, and improve the precision of estimated mobility responses. |
| JEL: | C21 F16 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35921 |
| By: | Biniam Bedasso (Center for Global Development); Radhika Nagesh (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | School feeding is increasingly incorporated into education-in-emergencies (EiE) responses, yet systematic evidence on its cost, scale, and delivery remains scarce. This evidence gap matters as humanitarian and development financing tightens and EiE requirements are cut. Using data from 65 emergency education programmes implemented in 31 countries between 2018 and 2024, this paper examines the budget trade-offs involved in including school meals in emergency education responses and the factors associated with more efficient delivery. We estimate planned annualised school-meal costs, standardised to a nine-month school year, for 33 grants, and assess budget–coverage trade-offs in the 19 grants for which complete budget and beneficiary data are available. In these grants, school feeding accounted for roughly 31 percent of aggregate budgets while serving roughly 7 percent of aggregate beneficiaries. Because the non-feeding remainder of each grant comprises a heterogeneous bundle of interventions, these figures describe budget composition rather than relative value for money. They are therefore a necessary, though not sufficient, input into a critical portfolio review. Annualised costs per targeted child ranged from USD 4 to over USD 201, with a median of USD 35. Costs were higher on average in drought and multidimensional crises than in disease-outbreak settings. Per-child costs were also lower in larger programmes, although this scale advantage was more limited in complex emergencies. On-site hot meals dominated delivery, but the sample includes too few alternative modalities to compare cost-efficiency robustly. We conclude with policy lessons on making budget trade-offs explicit, calibrating costs to context, testing alternative modalities, investing in delivery platforms, and improving coordination across EiE financing instruments. |
| Date: | 2026–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:757 |
| By: | Beatriz Helena Diaz Pinzón; Ruth Alejandra Patiño Jacinto; Martha Isabel Riaño Casallas; Sandra Patricia Rojas Berrio |
| Abstract: | This study diagnoses digital competencies and emotional intelligence in first-semester students of Business Administration, Accounting, and Economics at the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the National University of Colombia, recognizing student diversity from an intersectional perspective. It addresses the need to align education with real living conditions, prior trajectories, and university adaptation challenges, including soft and digital skills development. The research is an exploration and mixed-methods: a survey was applied to 108 students and five interviews explored experiences during the semester. Results show an overall intermediate-high level of digital competence, with stronger performance in communication and information search. The main weaknesses appear in digital content creation and problem solving, with program differences and gender gaps. Emotional intelligence shows adequate attention and regulation, but emotional clarity tends to remain at the lower bound of the adequate range. Interviews reveal intense transition emotions such as fear, anxiety, and loneliness, and regulation strategies based on support networks, pauses, relief activities, and seeking help. Evidence also suggests that digital skills are not systematically addressed institutionally in the first semester and students adapt individually. The study concludes that transversal institutional and curricular actions are needed, including differentiated support to reduce gaps and strengthen competencies from entry. |
| Keywords: | Digital competencies; Emotional intelligence; Intersectionality; University adaptation; First-year students |
| JEL: | I21 I23 J24 O33 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000176:023808 |