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on Education |
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Issue of 2026–07–20
twenty-six papers chosen by João Carlos Correia Leitão, Universidade da Beira Interior |
| By: | D. Sonedda; M. Matranga; G. Vernasca; M. Rossi; F. Figari |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction between need- and merit-based university grants in a non-selective higher education system. Using administrative data from a northern Italian university, we analyse how eligibility criteria affect enrolment, academic performance, and labour market outcomes. We document a trade-off between the two criteria, with merit requirements acting as endogenous screening. We rationalise this trade-off with a three-period model predicting that merit thresholds increase effort among students with higher expected ability but may discourage effort among students at risk of falling short, as losing the grant reduces expected utility. We support these predictions using a difference-in-differences estimator for multiple treatments, separately analysing students switching into and out of need- and merit-based eligibility. Our results show that grants target disadvantaged but academically strong students, generate perverse incentive effects that vary by gender, and fail to retain a substantial share of initial recipients. |
| Keywords: | University Grants, Educational Outcomes, Non-selective higher education |
| JEL: | I22 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202611 |
| By: | Ichino, Andrea; Mealli, Fabrizia; Viviens, Javier |
| Abstract: | We study whether access to standardized test scores improves the quality of teachers’ secondary school track recommendations, using Dutch data and a metric based on Principal Stratification in a quasi-randomized setting. Allowing teachers to revise their recommendations when test results exceed expectations increases the share of students successfully placed in more demanding tracks by at least 6%, but misplaces 7% of weaker students. However, only implausibly high weights on the short-term losses of students who must change track because of misplacement would justify prohibiting test-score-based upgrades. Access to test scores also induces fairer recommendations for immigrant and low-SES students. |
| JEL: | I2 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20838 |
| By: | Manuel Arellano (CEMFI); Orazio Attanasio (Yale University); Margherita Borella (University of Turin); Mariacristina De Nardi (University of Minnesota); Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about future earnings offers and acceptance probabilities, offering direct information on counterfactual outcomes and enabling identification under weaker assumptions. Our framework avoids biases from selection and unobserved heterogeneity that affect models using realized outcomes. First-step fixed-effects regressions identify risk, persistence, and transition effects; second-step GMM recovers the covariance structure of unobserved heterogeneities such as ability, mobility, and match quality. We find lower risk and persistence of the individual productivity component than in prior work, but greater heterogeneity in ability and match quality. Simulations show that reduced-form estimates overstate persistence and volatility on individual-level productivity due to job transitions and sorting. After accounting for heterogeneity, volatility declines and becomes flat across the earnings distribution. These results underscore the value of expectations data. |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2509 |
| By: | Jia, Ruixue; Khanna, Gaurav; Li, Hongbin; Xu, Yuli |
| Abstract: | China’s unprecedented expansion of higher education in 1999, increased annual college enrollment from 1 million to 9.6 million by 2020. We trace the global ripple effects of that expansion by examining its impact on US graduate education and local economies surrounding college towns. Combining administrative data from China’s college admissions system and US visa data, we leverage the centralized quota system governing Chinese college admissions for identification and present three key findings. First, the expansion of Chinese undergraduate education drove graduate student flows to the US: every additional 100 college graduates in China led to 3.6 Chinese graduate students in the US. Second, Chinese master’s students generated positive spillovers, driving the birth of new master’s programs, and increasing the number of other international and American master's students, particularly in STEM fields. And third, the influx of international students supported local economies around college towns, raising job creation rates outside the universities, as well. Our findings highlight how domestic education policy in one country can reshape the academic and economic landscape of another through student migration and its broader spillovers. |
| JEL: | J61 I23 J24 F22 O15 O38 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20772 |
| By: | Mark Rosenzweig (Yale University); Bing Xu (Heriot-Watt University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the theoretical and empirical consequences of rank-based reward systems in schools in which students' performance and effort are evaluated relative to their peers. In such environments, classmates act simultaneously as competitors - due to rank-determined rewards - and as educators through peer learning and assistance. Using nationally representative panel survey data from U.S. high schools, combined with administrative information on the location assignments of new refugee student cohorts, we exploit variation in school competition policies and class ability compositions to identify empirically their dual effects on student effort and peer learning. We develop a theoretical tournament model with heterogeneous students who adjust their effort in response to the effort of similar peers and in which students learn from peers. The model predicts that when rewards depend on relative standing, adding higher-ability students to a cohort will reduce both incumbent academic effort and peer assistance, particularly in schools emphasizing rank-based awards, while adding lower-ability students has the opposite effects. Empirical tests of the model confirm these predictions. In schools with strong rank-based reward policies, the addition of stronger peers reduces high-performing incumbent students' homework time and eliminates the positive spillovers from peer learning observed in less competitive settings. The adverse effects are concentrated among high-ability incumbents, while lower-ability students - who are less likely to win competitive awards - are largely unaffected. The results indicate that performance-based competition undermines cooperative peer learning and reduces student effort and overall academic performance, especially in institutions with high-ability students that explicitly emphasize relative ranking in determining academic recognition. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2527 |
| By: | Oosterbeek, Hessel; Rozsos, Tina; van der Klaauw, Bas |
| Abstract: | Close to 20% of secondary school students in Amsterdam - and elsewhere - transfer between secondary schools at some point, even when initially placed in their most-preferred school. School switching is costly for the students involved and disrupts the learning environment of their former and new classmates. Using data from the Amsterdam secondary-school match linked to administrative registers, we show that switching can be predicted by hard-to-rationalize initial school choices. Over 60% of switchers can be correctly identified at the admission stage. Simulations indicate that encouraging predicted switchers to adjust their preference ranking of schools could reduce the switching rate by almost 15%. |
| JEL: | I21 C35 C53 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20890 |
| By: | Nursena Aksunger (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Wendy Janssens (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Menno Pradhan (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal relationship between student debt and mental health using the 2015 Dutch student finance reform as a natural experiment. The reform replaced a universal grant with income-contingent loans for higher-education students, leaving vocational students unaffected and serving as a natural comparison group. Low-income students were partly compensated through expanded targeted support. Using nationwide administrative data from Statistics Netherlands, we implement a difference-in-differences design comparing clinically diagnosed depression, anxiety, and broader mental health outcomes between higher education and vocational education students before and after the reform. We find no evidence of adverse mental health effects from the transition to debt-based financing. At the same time, students adjusted their behaviour by marginally increasing labour earnings and remaining longer in co-residence with their parents. These findings suggest that behavioural responses to the reform may have mitigated financial strain, although lenient repayment terms likely also cushioned the impact of the reform. Overall, the results indicate that the mental health impact of student debt may depend not only on financial exposure but also on institutional context and individuals’ ability to adjust. |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260020 |
| By: | Andrén, Daniela (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | When their children were 13, the parents of a school-year cohort in a midsize town in middle Sweden reported which schooling orientation (academic or vocational) they preferred for the child and which they expected the child would take. This paper interprets these two answers as proxies for parental investment in schooling: preference captures the direction of the aim, while expectation captures how far the parent believes it will be realized. The research design cannot disentangle parental push from parental foresight, so the estimates are interpreted as conditional associations. Instead, it leverages the joint measurement of preferences and expectations at the same age, rich background controls, and long-run register follow-up to describe how these two dimensions of parental schooling orientation relate to their children's later attainment and labor-market outcomes. Linking the cohort to Swedish administrative registers half a century later and conditioning on socioeconomic group, parental education, sex, birth-year group, and measured cognition at the same age, parental expectation is associated with higher adult schooling, while parental preference, holding expectation fixed, is more closely related to mid-career earnings than to schooling , with no corresponding association with late-life subjective well-being. Parents' post-compulsory expectation at age 16 maps onto their children's realized schooling in a steep, monotone gradient, from a 7 percent post-secondary share where parents expected immediate work to 75 percent where they expected a three-year academic upper-secondary program. |
| Keywords: | parental expectations; parental preferences; educational attainment; earnings. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2026_006 |
| By: | Falk, Armin; Kosse, Fabian; Pinger, Pia |
| Abstract: | Inequality of opportunity occurs when two children with the same academic performance are sent to different quality schools because their parents differ in socio-economic status. Based on a novel dataset for Germany, we demonstrate that children are significantly less likely to enter the academic track if they come from a low socio-economic status (SES) family, even after conditioning on prior measures of school performance. We then provide causal evidence that a low-intensity mentoring program can improve long-run education outcomes of low SES children and reduce inequality of opportunity. Low SES children who were randomly assigned to a mentor for one year are 20 percent more likely to enter a high track program. The mentoring relationship affects both parents and children and has positive long-term implications for children's educational trajectories. We show that the effects are both enduring and scalable. |
| JEL: | C90 I24 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20915 |
| By: | Johann D. Gaebler; Calvin Isley; Christopher Avery; Sharad Goel |
| Abstract: | There is a long-running debate over using standardized test scores to inform college and graduate admissions decisions, with some arguing that test scores are an important signal of academic strength and others arguing that they are biased and exclusionary. Here we revisit this issue by analyzing a novel dataset of more than 13, 000 applications over roughly a decade to a large public policy master’s program in the United States. Consistent with past work, we find that GRE scores substantially improve predictions of first-year grades relative to predictions based on GPA alone. However, when these predictions are used to inform admissions decisions, we find that test scores only modestly improve the expected academic quality of admitted students. The gap shrinks further when we augment the test-aware and test-blind predictive models with more fine-grained information available in student transcripts and other application materials. Specifically, we estimate that incorporating standardized test scores in our setting would result in admitting students who perform, on average, only 0.03 grade points better. We show—both empirically and theoretically—that this pattern stems from a subtle distinction between predictions and decisions. Even with improved predictions, the downstream admissions decisions are often the same; and where there are differences, they often involve selecting between similarly qualified applicants. Our results indicate that standardized test scores may be less important for university admissions than previously suggested. |
| JEL: | I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35407 |
| By: | Christa Deneault; Evan Riehl |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive analysis of a Texas policy that relaxed teacher licensing requirements and created a large for-profit training industry. Using detailed administrative data, we show that for-profit-trained teachers have higher turnover and lower value-added than standard-trained teachers. But the policy significantly increased the supply of certified teachers, reducing schools’ reliance on uncertified teachers with even worse outcomes. Exploiting variation in policy exposure across schools, we find a zero net impact on student achievement due to these offsetting forces. Thus lower licensing requirements improved access to teaching and reduced training costs without harming students. |
| Keywords: | teacher certification; teacher preparation; occupational licensing |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103498 |
| By: | Biroli, Pietro; Di Girolamo, Amalia; Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Totarelli, Maddalena |
| Abstract: | Educational disparities often limit students’ access to relatable role models, constraining their aspirations and educational outcomes. We design and implement the Online Role Model Mentoring Program (ORME), a scalable, low-cost intervention connecting middle school students with successful role models from similar backgrounds. Using a randomized controlled trial with over 450 students in Campania, Italy, we find that ORME improves students’ beliefs about the returns to effort, increases alignment between aspirations and expectations, and boosts school effort. Treated students also become more academically ambitious: they are more likely to enroll in academically oriented tracks and perform better on standardized language tests. These findings show that brief online mentoring sessions can have a meaningful impact on students’ attitudes and choices at a critical stage of schooling, highlighting a promising tool to support students in low-opportunity contexts. |
| Keywords: | Role models |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20950 |
| By: | Epper, Thomas Frank; Ibsen, Kristoffer; Koch, Alexander K; Nafziger, Julia |
| Abstract: | University dropout is costly, making it a policy priority to identify factors that predict dropout. Using a survey experiment with incoming first-year students linked to long-run administrative outcomes, we assess which information improves dropout prediction beyond standard university records. A small number of targeted, study-specific survey items — especially motivation and expectations about degree completion — substantially improve predictive performance. By contrast, widely used measures of general preferences and traits (such as grit and self-control) add little incremental value — a result that we qualitatively replicate in a large population. Our findings suggest inexpensive, scalable ways to improve dropout predictions. |
| Keywords: | Dropout; Non-cognitive skills; Motivation; Economic preferences; beliefs; Education; Machine learning |
| JEL: | I23 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21263 |
| By: | Genakos, Christos; Kyrkopoulou, Eleni; Papaioannou, Elias |
| Abstract: | We use a unique natural experiment in which families were randomly selected to live in the Olympic Village, constructed for the 2004 Athens Olympic Games, to assess the impact of improved neighborhood conditions on academic achievement. Comparing 12–17-year-old students who relocated and attended the new schools with non-selected applicants from the same origin schools across Attica, we find a positive, gender-neutral, and significant effect of moving on overall performance. Educational gains, primarily in language courses, are concentrated among students who previously performed poorly, indicating a “fresh start†effect. |
| Keywords: | Social experimentation; Housing; Neighborhoods; Peer effects; Education |
| JEL: | H43 I2 I3 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21319 |
| By: | Akar, Betul (TUBITAK); Okten, Cagla (Bilkent University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the intergenerational effects of Turkiye’s 1997 compulsory schooling reform, which increased mandatory schooling from five to eight years. Drawing on a novel dataset from the nationally representative 2022 Turkish Child Survey, we use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to identify the causal effect of mothers’ exposure to the reform. We find that the reform significantly increased maternal educational attainment and, in turn, improved children’s performance in Turkish, while having no statistically significant effect on mathematics achievement. Maternal exposure to the reform also had positive effects on children’s mental health, increasing happiness and reducing anxiety, but did not affect their general health status. These effects are heterogeneous by child gender, with boys benefiting more than girls. Analysis of potential channels shows that increased parental investment may be one relevant channel explaining the observed effects, while reduced child work appears to play a limited role. |
| Keywords: | mother’s education, compulsory schooling, child outcomes, mental health, physical health |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18735 |
| By: | Ingvild AlmŒs (IIES, Stockholm University and Norwegian School of Economics); Nina Drange (Statistics Norway); Costas Meghir (Yale University); Henrik Daae Zachrisson (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of early childcare on academic achievement for children in grade 5 and grade 9, based on a 2003 policy expansion that created quasi-random variation in slot availability for children aged 1Ð2. Starting childcare one year earlier increases math scores by 9.7% of a standard deviation (SD) in grade 9. Children whose mothers do not hold a high school diploma benefit by a significant 28% of a SD at grade 9, reducing the math achievement gap from children of higher-educated mothers by about one third. We also present evidence of strong improvements for children of immigrants. |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2518 |
| By: | Li Kathrin Kaja Rupieper; Stephan Thomsen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of voluntary, non-formal adult education on political attitudes, participation, and partisanship, exploiting the expansion of courses at East German Volkshochschulen (VHS) after reunification. Combining administrative VHS data with individual survey data and federal election results, we use quasi-random variation in local course availability to identify causal effects in two-way fixed effects models. We find no significant impact on political attitudes and partisanship, suggesting that political socialization and ideologization play limited roles in adult education. Yet, courses significantly affect some forms of political participation, as they increase volunteering and reduce turnout. These effects are not driven by civic education courses. Further participatory behaviors remain unaffected. This variation in effects across participatory behaviors hints to a more complex relationship than commonly assumed: One may only understand the effect of adult education on political participation when understanding its effects on other areas of life as well, given the interplay of the productive and political roles of human capital. |
| Keywords: | lifelong learning, democracy, political participation, turnout, East Germany, German reunification |
| JEL: | H52 I26 N34 P20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1240 |
| By: | Greaves, Ellen (University of Exeter); Venturin, Alberto (European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | The established consensus from a large worldwide literature is that access to a ‘better’ school increases local property prices, which is typically interpreted as reflecting parents’ demand for school quality. We show that this relationship does not hold universally. Using data on English secondary schools, we show that price premiums are concentrated in the minority of areas where the difference in quality between schools is large, and weak or absent elsewhere. Exploring other dimensions of heterogeneity, we find that households pay comparable premiums to avoid schools at the bottom of the quality distribution as to reach the top, conditional on the size of the quality gap. A sufficiently affluent school peer group is a necessary condition for higher attainment to raise prices, suggesting that households value a bundle of school attributes. |
| Keywords: | school quality, property prices, boundary discontinuity design |
| JEL: | R21 I24 H75 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18750 |
| By: | KHAN, SANA (University of Florence); Giannelli, Gianna (University of Florence); FERRONE, LUCIA (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | Education is widely associated with better health outcomes, but whether this relationship is causal remains unclear, especially in low-income countries. This study examines the causal effect of maternal education on child nutrition and dietary diversity in Kenya. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, with exposure to the 2003 school reform as an instrument for educational attainment, the analysis finds that an additional year of maternal schooling significantly improves children’s nutritional status and dietary diversity. Positive effects are observed for both boys and girls, although they are slightly stronger for boys. The results are robust to a range of sensitivity tests. Further analysis suggests that maternal education improves child health through several channels, including delayed first birth, fewer children under age five, higher paternal education, greater use of prenatal care, increased access to information through newspapers and television, improved literacy, and higher employment rates among mothers. These findings indicate that expanding educational opportunities for girls can be an effective policy tool for improving child nutrition and feeding practices in developing countries such as Kenya. |
| Keywords: | maternal education, education reform, child nutritional outcomes and dietary diversity, fuzzy regression discontinuity design, Kenya |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I21 I25 I28 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18737 |
| By: | Macours, Karen; Vera Rueda, Julieta; Webb, Duncan |
| Abstract: | Menstrual stigma affects adolescent girls worldwide, yet its impact on human capital development remains largely unexamined. We use a field experiment in 140 schools in Madagascar to evaluate interventions designed to reduce menstrual stigma and promote hygiene behaviors (N=2, 250). Teacher-led sensitization on stigma and hygiene, menstrual products, and sanitation infrastructure together substantially improve girls’ learning outcomes on standardized tests (+0.2 SD). These gains do not operate by improving school attendance or health, the channels typically invoked to justify menstrual hygiene programs. Instead, the improvements appear to arise from psychosocial mechanisms, including reduced menstrual stigma (measured using lab-in-the-field exercises, enumerator observations, and self-reports) and reduced stress (lower heart rate). We also test a novel approach for norm change by identifying “positive deviants†– girls within schools willing to openly challenge menstrual stigma. Selecting and training these positive deviants to serve as peer ambassadors for norm change produces significant additional improvements in self-reported stigma and hygiene behavior. The results demonstrate that addressing gender-specific psychosocial barriers can substantially improve girls’ education outcomes in highly deprived contexts, while highlighting both the promise and limitations of leveraging positive deviance for social norm change. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 O15 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21167 |
| By: | Alan, Sule |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines how schools cultivate socio-emotional skills that influence both individual success and broader social cohesion. Moving beyond the traditional focus on cognitive ability, I argue that education plays a crucial role in fostering traits that promote cooperation, trust, and long-term societal well-being. Drawing on insights from neuroscience, psychology, and economics, I explore how schools shape not only academic and labor market outcomes but also intergenerational beliefs, attitudes, and the formation of social capital. Using evidence from experimental studies, I highlight how school-based interventions can instill perseverance, enhance social learning, and create environments that curb anti-social tendencies, promote prosocial behavior—ultimately influencing the cultural fabric of society. This perspective reframes education as a mechanism for building more equitable and cohesive communities. |
| JEL: | C93 D63 I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21289 |
| By: | Wu, Jie; Canales, J. Ignacio; Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK); Yan, Haifeng |
| Abstract: | This study examines how soft skills education performatively shapes business realities across cultural boundaries. While prior research has treated soft skills as static capabilities, we demonstrate their role as performative forces actively reshaping organizational practices. Through in-depth interviews with Chinese graduates of UK universities working in China, our findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between structural performativity and organizational transformation, moderated by collective orientation (weakening effect) and absorptive capacity (strengthening effect) and pinpoint six key domains through which soft skills education acts as a performative mechanism. Our findings suggest that successful organizational transformation through soft skills education requires balancing international connections, cultural values, and knowledge integration capabilities. The study advances performativity theory in management education by demonstrating how educational practices actively construct organizational realities rather than merely describing them and provides insights for business schools on effectively harnessing performativity to create desirable organizational outcomes in cross-cultural contexts. |
| Keywords: | Performativity; Management Education; Soft Skills; Cross-Cultural Learning; Chinese Business; Business Schools |
| JEL: | A2 I2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/1 |
| By: | Berniell, Inés; Fernández, Raquel; Menduiña, Azul; Onofri, Milagros |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21071 |
| By: | Eric Brunner; Stephen Ross; Xinrui Wang |
| Abstract: | We examine pandemic related racial and ethnic disparities in test scores, absenteeism, and disciplinary incidents for K-12 students in the State of Connecticut through the 2024-25 school year. Notably, most existing pandemic studies only cover absenteeism through 2022-23, and minimal quantitative evidence exists on the post-pandemic incidence of student discipline related behaviors. Consistent with prior studies, we find persistent negative effects of the pandemic on test scores, as well as substantial disparities in test scores along racial and ethnic lines. For middle school, we also find persistent post-pandemic increases in both severe disciplinary incidents overall and racial and ethnic disparities in severe discipline incidents. However, we document substantial recovery in racial and ethnic disparities in attendance rates and chronic absenteeism by 2024-25. For all outcomes, most of the increases in disparities are associated with Black and Latinx students attending schools that had worse pre-pandemic outcomes and higher pre-pandemic shares of students who are either economically disadvantaged or face learning barriers. |
| JEL: | I21 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35409 |
| By: | Anna Adamecz (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); John Jerrim (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London); Ágnes Szabó-Morvai (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; University of Debrecen, Faculty of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of dropping out of school in the association between adolescent mental health disorders (MHDs) and subsequent early-life outcomes. Utilising an administrative panel dataset that links education, health, and employment records for half of the Hungarian school population, we track the life outcomes of a school cohort until age 22. Our findings indicate that adolescents diagnosed with an MHD between the ages of 14 and 16 are 5.8 percentage points (or 34%) more likely to drop out of secondary school compared to their peers, even after controlling for social background factors and educational performance. Furthermore, MHDs are associated with poorer early-life outcomes by age 22, including reduced employment rates, an increased likelihood of being neither in education nor employment, lower wages, and higher probabilities of motherhood, abortions, sexually transmitted diseases, and substance abuse. On average, approximately a third of these negative associations are mediated through school dropout but there are substantial differences across these outcomes. We conclude that educational policies aimed at facilitating the school-to-life transition should simultaneously address mental health disorders and dropout prevention. |
| Keywords: | adolescent mental health, school dropout, school-to-work transition, NEET, abortion, substance abuse, sexually transmitted diseases, causal mediation analysis |
| JEL: | I12 I29 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2609 |
| By: | Anna Adamecz (UCL Social Research Institute; HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; IZA); Anna Lovász (University of Washington Tacoma); Sunčica Vujić (University of Antwerp; University of Bath; VU Amsterdam; IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the link between higher education and fertility, with particular attention to the role of intergenerational educational mobility in shaping this relationship. Drawing on data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate differences in completed fertility across three groups: first-in-family university graduates (FiF), graduates with at least one university-educated parent (non-FiF graduates), and individuals who did not attend university (non-graduates). Our findings show that although graduate women generally have fewer children than non-graduates, this gap is primarily driven by FiF graduates. FiF women have lower fertility than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates, who exhibit similar fertility patterns. The fertility gap between FiF and non-FiF graduates emerges after age 35, mainly on the extensive margin: FiF women are more likely to remain childless, but those who become mothers have an average number of children similar to non-FiF graduates. Similar patterns are observed for men, however, the gaps are smaller and not statistically significant. We identify child-related preferences, self-esteem, and exposure to maternal employment during childhood as potential drivers of the relationship between FiF status and fertility. In contrast, labour market outcomes, financial constraints, partnership status, and health outcomes do not appear to contribute to the FiF fertility gap. These findings highlight key considerations for policies aimed at supporting both intergenerational mobility and fertility. |
| Keywords: | First in family (FiF) graduates, fertility, childlessness, intergenerational educational mobility, gender economics |
| JEL: | I26 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2506 |