nep-ecm New Economics Papers
on Econometrics
Issue of 2008‒12‒01
thirteen papers chosen by
Sune Karlsson
Orebro University

  1. Estimation of Dynamic Models with Nonparametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood By Per Frederiksen; Frank S. Nielsen
  2. Modeling autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis with Multi-quantile CAViaR. By Halbert White; Tae-Hwan Kim; Simone Manganelli
  3. Long run and cyclical strong dependence in macroeconomic time series. Nelson and Plosser revisited By Luis A. Gil-Alana
  4. Modelling and measuring volatility By Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen; Neil Shephard
  5. Optimizing Time-series Forecasts for Inflation and Interest Rates Using Simulation and Model Averaging By Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M.
  6. Regime switching models of hedge fund returns By Szabolcs Blazsek; Anna Downarowitz
  7. Modelling the US, the UK and Japanese unemployment rates. Fractional integrationand structural breaks By Luis A. Gil-Alana; Guglielmo M. Caporale
  8. Catching Growth Determinants with the Adaptive LASSO By Schneider, Ulrike; Wagner, Martin
  9. Multivariate dependence modeling using copulas By Marta Cardin; Maddalena Manzi
  10. Fractional integration and data frequency By Luis A. Gil-Alana; Guglielmo M. Caporale
  11. Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series By Luis A. Gil-Alana
  12. On implications of micro price data for macro models. By Bartosz Maćkowiak; Frank Smets
  13. Predicting the Signs of Forecast Errors By Nazaria Solferino; Robert J. Waldmann

  1. By: Per Frederiksen; Frank S. Nielsen (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose new tests for long memory in stationary and nonstationary time series possibly perturbed by short-run noise which may be serially correlated. The tests are all based on semiparametric estimators and exploit the self-similarity property of long memory processes. We o¤er simulation results that show good size properties of the tests, with power against spurious long memory. An empirical study of daily log-squared returns series of exchange rates and DJIA30 stocks shows that indeed there is long memory in exchange rate volatility and stock return volatility.
    Keywords: Temporal aggregation, semiparametric estimation, fractional integration, self-similarity, perturbed fractional processes.
    JEL: C14 C22 C43
    Date: 2008–11–25
  2. By: Halbert White (Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive 0508, La Jolla, California 92093-0508, USA.); Tae-Hwan Kim (School of Economics, University of Nottingham, University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD, U.K..); Simone Manganelli (European Central Bank, DG-Research, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: Engle and Manganelli (2004) propose CAViaR, a class of models suitable for estimating conditional quantiles in dynamic settings. Engle and Manganelli apply their approach to the estimation of Value at Risk, but this is only one of many possible applications. Here we extend CAViaR models to permit joint modeling of multiple quantiles, Multi-Quantile (MQ) CAViaR. We apply our new methods to estimate measures of conditional skewness and kurtosis defined in terms of conditional quantiles, analogous to the unconditional quantile-based measures of skewness and kurtosis studied by Kim and White (2004). We investigate the performance of our methods by simulation, and we apply MQ-CAViaR to study conditional skewness and kurtosis of S&P 500 daily returns. JEL Classification: C13, C32.
    Keywords: Asset returns, CAViaR, conditional quantiles, dynamic quantiles, kurtosis, skewness.
    Date: 2008–11
  3. By: Luis A. Gil-Alana (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navarra)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the presence of long range dependence at the long run and the cyclical frequencies in macroeconomic time series. We use a procedure that allows us to test unit roots with fractional orders of integration in raw time series. The tests are applied to an extended version of Nelson and Plosser’s (1982) dataset, and the results show that, though the classic unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected in most of the series, fractional degrees of integration at both the zero and the cyclical frequencies are plausible alternatives in some cases. Additionally, the root at the zero frequency seems to be more important than the cyclical one for all series, implying that shocks affecting the long run are more persistent than those affecting the cyclical part. The results are consistent with the empirical fact observed in many macroeconomic series that the long-term evolution is nonstationary, while the cyclical component is stationary.
    Date: 2008–11–25
  4. By: Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen; Neil Shephard
    Keywords: Levy process, realised volatility, realised kernel, stochastic volatility
    JEL: C01 C14 C32
    Date: 2008
  5. By: Jumah, Adusei (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and Department of Economics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria); Kunst, Robert M. (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and Department of Economics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria)
    Abstract: Motivated by economic-theory concepts—the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure—we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector autoregressions (VAR) in levels and in differences, a cointegrated VAR, and a non-linear VAR with threshold cointegration based on data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S. Following a traditional comparative evaluation of predictive accuracy, we subject all structures to a mutual validation using parametric bootstrapping. Ultimately, we utilize the recently developed technique of Mallows model averaging to explore the potential of improving upon the predictions through combinations. While the simulations confirm the traded wisdom that VARs in differences optimize one-step prediction and that error correction helps at larger horizons, the model-averaging experiments point at problems in allotting an adequate penalty for the complexity of candidate models.
    Keywords: Threshold cointegration, Parametric bootstrap, Model averaging
    JEL: C32 C52 E43 E47
    Date: 2008–11
  6. By: Szabolcs Blazsek (Department of Business, Universidad de Navarra); Anna Downarowitz (Instituto de Empresa)
    Abstract: We estimate and compare the forecasting performance of several dynamic models of returns of different hedge fund strategies. The conditional mean of return is an ARMA process while its conditional volatility is modeled according to the GARCH specification. In order to take into account the high level of risk of these strategies, we also consider a Markov switching structure of the parameters in both equations to cap ture jumps. Finally, the one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecast performance of different models is compared.
    Keywords: Markov switching ARMA-GARCH, forecasting performance
    JEL: C13 C15 G32
    Date: 2008–11–26
  7. By: Luis A. Gil-Alana (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navarra); Guglielmo M. Caporale (Brunel University, London, England)
    Abstract: A general procedure for fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown points in time is used, which allows for different orders of integration and deterministic components in each subsample. First, the procedure is extended to the non-linear case, and is showed by means of Monte Carlo experiments that it performs well in a non-linear environment. Second, it is applied to test for a single break in the unemployment rate in the US, the UK and Japan. The results shed some light on the empirical relevance of alternative unemployment theories for these countries. Specifically, a structuralist interpretation appears more appropriate for the US and Japan, whilst a hysteresis model accounts better for the UK experience (and also for the Japanese one in the second subsanple). These findings are interpreted in terms of structural instability in labour markets with different features.
    Date: 2008–11–20
  8. By: Schneider, Ulrike (Department of Statistics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria); Wagner, Martin (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)
    Abstract: This paper uses the adaptive LASSO estimator to determine the variables important for economic growth. The adaptive LASSO estimator is a computationally very simple procedure that performs at the same time both consistent parameter estimation and model selection. The methodology is applied to three data sets, the data used in Sala-i-Martin et al. (2004), in Fernandez et al. (2001) and a data set for the regions in the European Union. The results for the former two data sets are very similar in many respects to those found in the published papers, yet are obtained at a tiny fraction of computational cost. Furthermore, the results for the regional data highlight the importance of human capital for economic growth.
    Keywords: Adaptive LASSO, Economic convergence, Growth regressions, Model selection
    JEL: C31 C52 O11 O18 O47
    Date: 2008–11
  9. By: Marta Cardin (Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Venice); Maddalena Manzi (Department of Mathematics, University of Padua)
    Abstract: There exist necessary and sufficient conditions on the generating functions of the FGM family, in order to obtain various dependence properties. We present multivariate generalizations of this class studying symmetry and dependence concepts, measuring the dependence among the components of each class and providing several examples.
    Keywords: copula, density function, FGM copulas, dependence, symmetry
    JEL: C02
    Date: 2008–11
  10. By: Luis A. Gil-Alana (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navarra); Guglielmo M. Caporale (Brunel University, London, England)
    Abstract: This paper examines the robustness of fractional integration estimates to different data frequencies. We show by means of Monte Carlo experiments that if the number of differences is an integer value (e.g., 0 or 1) there is no distortion when data are collected at wider intervals; however, if it is a fractional value, the distortion increases as the number of periods between the observations increases, which results in lower orders of integration than those of the true DGP. An empirical application using the S&P500 index is also carried out.
    Date: 2008–11–20
  11. By: Luis A. Gil-Alana (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navarra)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the modelling of the global and northern and southern hemispheric anomaly temperature time series using a novel technique based on segmented trends and fractional integration. We use a procedure that permits us to estimate linear time trends and orders of integration at various subsamples, where the periods for the changing trends are endogenously determined by the model. Moreover, we use a non-parametric approach (Bloomfield, 1973) for modelling the I(0) deviation term. The results show that the three series (global, northern and southern temperatures) can be well described in terms of fractional integration with the orders of integration around 0.5 in the three cases. The coefficients associated to the time trends are statistically significant in all subsamples for the three series, especially during the final part of the sample, giving then some support to the global warming theories.
    Date: 2008–11–20
  12. By: Bartosz Maćkowiak (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Frank Smets (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: We review the recent literature that studies new, detailed micro data on prices. We discuss implications of the new micro data for macro models. We argue that the new micro data are helpful for macro models, but not decisive. There is no simple mapping from the frequency of price changes in micro data to impulse responses of prices and quantities to shocks. We discuss ideas that promise to deliver macro models matching the impulse responses seen in macro data while being broadly in line with micro data. JEL Classification: E3, E5.
    Keywords: sticky prices, micro price data, models of price setting, real effects of nominal shocks.
    Date: 2008–11
  13. By: Nazaria Solferino (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Robert J. Waldmann (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis, because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters
    Keywords: Rational Expectations, Panel, Loss Function, Forecast, Interest Rate.
    JEL: G14 E47
    Date: 2008–11–24

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