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on Dynamic General Equilibrium |
| By: | Aleš Maršál (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | I lay out small open economy model with nominal rigidities to study the implication of model dynamics on the term structure of interest rates. It has been shown that in order to obtain at least moderate match simultaneously of the macro and finance data, one has to introduce long-memory habits in consumption together with a large number of highly persistent exogenous shocks. These elements of the model however worsen the fit of macro data. I find that in the open economy framework the foreign demand channel allows us to match some of the data features even without including habits and a large number of exogenous shocks. |
| Keywords: | DSGE small open economy model, term structure of interest rates, perturbation method, second order approximation |
| JEL: | G12 E17 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_07&r=dge |
| By: | Mehdi Senouci (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on optimal growth in two-sector models by solving a Ram- sey problem with a concave utility function. The unique possible steady-state is independent of initial conditions and of the instantaneous utility function, but not of the discount rate, and is characterized by a wage-rental ratio depending solely on the technology of the capital sector. For an initially low-capital economy, we show that the wage-rental ratio increasingly converges to its balanced value during transition. If the consumption sector is relatively capital-intensive, the relative price of capital increases during transition. If the investment sector is relatively more capital-intensive, it decreases. We also prove that a negative shock on the subjective rate of impatience, that makes the social planner more patient, leads to an immediate positive jump in asset prices. |
| Keywords: | capital accumulation ; optimal growth ; golden rule ; two-sector models |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00572510&r=dge |
| By: | Ek, Susanne (Uppsala University); Holmlund, Bertil (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | A significant fraction of the labor force consists of employed workers who are part-time unemployed (underemployed) in the sense that they are unable to work as much as they prefer. This paper develops a search and matching model to study the design of optimal unemployment insurance in an economy with unemployment as well as part-time unemployment. Part-time unemployment provides income insurance and serves as a stepping stone to full-time jobs. Unemployment benefits for part-timers increase the outflow from unemployment to part-time work but reduce the outflow from part-time work to full-time employment. We examine the optimal structure of benefits for unemployed and underemployed workers. The results indicate non-negligible welfare gains associated with time limits for unemployment benefits as well as for part-time benefits. The welfare gains from optimal UI are larger when wages are fixed than when they are flexible. |
| Keywords: | job search, part-time unemployment, unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5540&r=dge |
| By: | Jonathan Benchimol (Economics Department - ESSEC Business School); André Fourçans (Economics Department - ESSEC Business School) |
| Abstract: | Cet article présente un modèle théorique et empirique de la zone euro, en mettant en perspective le rôle de la monnaie. Le modèle s'inscrit dans le cadre « Nouveaux Keynésiens-DSGE », la monnaie étant introduite dans la fonction d'utilité des ménages sous une forme non-séparable. En testant le modèle selon la méthode bayésienne nous expliquons la variance de la production et de l'inflation, mais aussi du taux d'intérêt, des balances réelles, de la production et des balances réelles en prix flexibles. Le rôle de la monnaie est analysé plus particulièrement. Nous montrons que son impact sur la production dépend du degré d'aversion au risque des agents, qu'il augmente avec ce degré, et qu'il devient significatif quand l'aversion au risque inter-temporel est suffisamment élevée. L'impact direct de la monnaie est en revanche très limité pour expliquer la variance de l'inflation, la politique monétaire, via le taux d'intérêt, constituant le facteur dominant. |
| Keywords: | Estimation bayésienne ; Modèle DSGE ; Monnaie ; Zone euro |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00572374&r=dge |
| By: | Oleksiy Kryvtsov; Virgiliu Midrigan |
| Abstract: | Recent New Keynesian models of macroeconomy view nominal cost rigidities, rather than nominal price rigidities, as the key feature that accounts for the observed persistence in output and inflation. Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2010a,b) reassess these conclusions by combining a theory based on nominal rigidities and storable goods with direct evidence on inventories for the U.S. This paper applies Kryvtsov and Midrigan’s model to the case of Canada. The model predicts that if costs of production are sticky and markups do not vary much in response to, say, expansionary monetary policy, firms react by excessively accumulating inventories in anticipation of future cost increases. In contrast, in the Canadian data inventories are fairly constant over the cycle and in response to changes in monetary policy. Similarly to Kryvtsov and Midrigan, we show that markups must decline sufficiently in times of a monetary expansion in order to reduce firms’ incentive to hold inventories and thus bring the model’s inventory predictions in line with the data. The model consistent with salient features of the dynamics of inventories in the Canadian data implies that countercyclical markups account for a sizable (50-80%) fraction of the response of real variables to monetary shocks. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Transmission of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 F12 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-9&r=dge |
| By: | Aase, Knut K. (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Both the equilibrium interest rate and the equity premium, as well as risk premiums of risky investments are all important quantities in cost-benefit analyses. In the light of the current (2008 -) financial crisis, it is of interest to study models that connect the the financial sector with the real economy. The effects of climate change has, on the other hand, been the subject of extensive discussions, for example in connection with the Stern report. The paper addresses both these issues, first based on standard assumptions. In particular we investigate what is needed to have long-term interests lower than short term rates. Our model allows us to tell what happens to risk premiums in turbulent times, consistent with observations. Next we extend the pure exchange model to a production economy. As a result we obtain an equilibrium term structure of interest rates, as well as a model for the equity premium. We end by a discussion of risk adjustments of the discount factor. For projects aimed at insuring future consumption, the interest rate is smaller than the risk free rate. Mitigation can have the characteristics of such a project. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic equilibrium; the Lucas model; term structure; CIR; pure exchange; production economy; equity premium puzzle; risk free rate puzzle; climate models; Stern Review |
| JEL: | D00 G00 |
| Date: | 2011–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2011_004&r=dge |
| By: | Pierre-Richard Agénor; Koray Alper; Luiz Pereira da Silva |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the roles of bank capital regulation and monetary policy in mitigating procyclicality and promoting macroeconomic and financial stability. The analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model with imperfect credit markets. Macroeconomic (financial) stability is defined in terms of the volatility of nominal income (real house prices). Numerical experiments show that even if monetary policy can react strongly to inflation deviations from target, combining a credit-augmented interest rate rule and a Basel III-type countercyclical capital regulatory rule may be optimal for promoting overall economic stability. The greater the degree of interest rate smoothing, and the stronger the policymaker's concern with macroeconomic stability, the larger is the sensitivity of the regulatory rule to credit growth gaps. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:cgbcrp:154&r=dge |
| By: | KOBAYASHI Keiichiro |
| Abstract: | We generalize Lagos and Wright's (2005) framework for a monetary economy in a way that there exist two technologies, "high" and "low," for producing the goods in a decentralized matching market. The high technology is more productive than the low technology, while the agents who use the high technology cannot commit in advance to deliver the goods. The lack of commitment makes it infeasible to produce the goods with the high technology if trade is conducted via a simple cash payment. To use the high technology, private valuable assets, e.g., residential property, should be put up as a "hostage" à la Williamson (1983) in the transaction. In this setting, a deterioration in the balance sheet due to a financial crisis leads to the disappearance of residential assets which are not yet put up as collateral, and hinder the usage of the high technology, leading to a decline in aggregate productivity. In this case, monetary injections cannot restore productivity after a financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:11009&r=dge |
| By: | KOBAYASHI Keiichiro |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple model of financial crises, which may be useful for the unified analysis of macro and financial policies implemented during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. A financial crisis is modeled as the disappearance of inside money due to the lemon problem à la Akerlof (1970), in a simplistic variant of Lucas and Stokey's (1987) Cash-in-Advance economy, where both cash and capital stocks work as media of exchange. The exogenous emergence of a huge amount of bad assets represents the occurrence of a financial crisis. Information asymmetry regarding the good assets(capital stocks) and the bad assets causes the good assets to cease functioning as inside money. The private agents have no proper incentive to dispose of the bad assets, and the crisis could be persistent, because the lemon problem is an external diseconomy. Macroeconomic policy (e.g., fiscal stimulus) provides outside money for substitution, and financial stabilization (e.g., bad-asset purchases) restores the inside money by resolving information asymmetry. The welfare-improving effect of the macro policy may be nonexistent or temporary, while the bad-asset purchases may have a permanent effect to shift the economy out of the crisis equilibrium. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:11011&r=dge |