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on Dynamic General Equilibrium |
| By: | Julio J. Rotemberg |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a complete general equilibrium model with flexible wages where the degree to which wages and productivity change when cyclical employment changes is roughly consistent with postwar U.S. data. Firms with market power are assumed to bargain simultaneously with many employees, each of whom finds himself matched with a firm only after a process of search. When employment increases as a result of reductions in market power, the marginal product of labor falls. This fall tempers the bargaining power of workers and thus dampens the increase in their real wages. The procyclical movement of wages is dampened further if the posting of vacancies is subject to increasing returns. |
| JEL: | E24 E37 J64 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12415&r=dge |
| By: | Dirk Krueger; Alexander Ludwig |
| Abstract: | This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is "importing" the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital. |
| JEL: | C68 D33 E17 E25 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12453&r=dge |
| By: | Pablo A. Guerron (Department of Economics, North Carolina State University) |
| Abstract: | I study the effects of a monetary shock in an economy characterized by heterogenous labor schedules and non-separability between consumption and labor in the utility function. To that end, I develop a simple method to deal with household heterogeneity arising from wealth differentials. Compared to competing models in the literature, the estimated version of my model fits better the responses of output, consumption, and wages after a monetary shock. Notably, my model requires no adjustment cost in investment, and smaller degrees of habit formation preference for consumption, and wage stickiness than other standard models. Furthermore, I show that non-separability is an important source of amplification of the effects of a monetary shock on output and investment. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous Choices, Impulse Responses, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ncs:wpaper:005&r=dge |
| By: | Morten O. Ravn |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a labor force participation choice into a labor market matching model embedded in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium set-up with production and savings. The participation choice is modelled as a tradeoff between forgoing the expected benefits of being search active and engaging in costly labor market search. The model induces a symmetry in firms’ and workers’ search decision since both sides of the labor market vary search effort at the extensive margins. We show that this set-up is of considerable analytical convenience and that it gives rise to a linear relationship between labor market tightness and the marginal utility of consumption. We refer to the latter as the “consumption - tightness puzzle” because (a) it gives rise to a number of counterfactual implications, and (b) it is a robust implication of theory. Amongst the counterfactual implications are very low volatility of tightness, procyclical unemployment, and a positively sloped Beveridge curve. These implications all derive from procyclical variations in participation rates that follow from allowing for the extensive search margin. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J20 J41 J64 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12421&r=dge |
| By: | Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Martín Uribe |
| Abstract: | This paper computes welfare-maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules in a real business cycle model augmented with sticky prices, a demand for money, taxation, and stochastic government consumption. We consider simple feedback rules whereby the nominal interest rate is set as a function of output and inflation, and taxes are set as a function of total government liabilities. We implement a second-order accurate solution to the model. Our main findings are: First, the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest-rate rule plays a minor role for welfare. It matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium. Second, optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output. More importantly, interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses. Third, the welfare gains from interest-rate smoothing are negligible. Fourth, optimal fiscal policy is passive. Finally, the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the Ramsey optimal policy. |
| JEL: | E52 E61 E63 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12402&r=dge |
| By: | Jinhui H. Bai; Ingolf Schwarz (Department of Economics, Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | The general equilibrium model with incomplete financial markets (GEI) is extended by adding fiat money, fiscal and monetary policy and a cash-in-advance constraint. The central bank either pegs the interest rate or money supply while the fiscal authority sets a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian fiscal plan. We prove the existence of equilibria in all four scenarios. In Ricardian economies, the conditions required for existence are not more restrictive than in standard GEI. In non-Ricardian economies, the sufficient conditions for existence are more demanding. In the Ricardian economy, neither the price level nor the equivalent martingale measure is determinate. Classification-JEL Codes: D52; E40; E50 |
| Keywords: | Money; Incomplete Markets; Fiscal Policy; Indeterminacy |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~06-06-05&r=dge |
| By: | Raj Chetty; Adam Szeidl |
| Abstract: | Many households devote a large fraction of their budgets to "consumption commitments" -- goods that involve transaction costs and are infrequently adjusted. This paper characterizes risk preferences in an expected utility model with commitments. We show that commitments affect risk preferences in two ways: (1) they amplify risk aversion with respect to moderate-stake shocks and (2) they create a motive to take large-payoff gambles. The model thus helps resolve two basic puzzles in expected utility theory: the discrepancy between moderate-stake and large-stake risk aversion and lottery playing by insurance buyers. We discuss applications of the model such as the optimal design of social insurance and tax policies, added worker effects in labor supply, and portfolio choice. Using event studies of unemployment shocks, we document evidence consistent with the consumption adjustment patterns implied by the model. |
| JEL: | E2 H2 H5 J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12467&r=dge |
| By: | Ricardo Lagos; Guillaume Rocheteau |
| Abstract: | We construct a model in which capital competes with fiat money as a medium of exchange, and establish conditions on fundamentals under which fiat money can be both valued and socially beneficial. When the socially efficient stock of capital is too low to provide the liquidity agents need, they overaccumulate productive assets to use as media of exchange. When this is the case, there exists a monetary equilibrium that dominates the nonmonetary one in terms of welfare. Under the Friedman rule, fiat money provides just enough liquidity so that agents choose to accumulate the same capital stock a social planner would. |
| Keywords: | Money |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0608&r=dge |
| By: | V. V. Chari; Patrick J. Kehoe |
| Abstract: | Theoretical advances in macroeconomics made in the last three decades have had a major influence on macroeconomic policy analysis. Moreover, over the last several decades, the United States and other countries have undertaken a variety of policy changes that are precisely what macroeconomic theory of the last 30 years suggests. The three key developments that have shaped macroeconomic policy analysis are the Lucas critique of policy evaluation due to Robert Lucas, the time inconsistency critique of discretionary policy due to Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott, and the development of quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models following Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:376&r=dge |
| By: | Ricardo Lagos; Guillaume Rocheteau |
| Abstract: | We investigate how trading frictions in asset markets affect portfolio choices, asset prices and efficiency. We generalize the search-theoretic model of financial intermediation of Duffie, Gârleanu and Pedersen (2005) to allow for more general preferences and idiosyncratic shock structure, unrestricted portfolio choices, aggregate uncertainty and entry of dealers. With a fixed measure of dealers, we show that a steady-state equilibrium exists and is unique, and provide a condition on preferences under which a reduction in trading frictions leads to an increase in the price of the asset. We also analyze the effects of trading frictions on bid-ask spreads, trade volume and the volatility of asset prices, and find that the asset allocation is constrained-inefficient unless investors have all the bargaining power in bilateral negotiations with dealers. We show that the dealers’ entry decision introduces a feedback that can give rise to multiple equilibria, and that free-entry equilibria are generically inefficient. |
| Keywords: | Assets (Accounting) - Prices ; Portfolio management |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0607&r=dge |
| By: | Kolm, Ann-Sofie (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Larsen, Birthe (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | While examining the macroeconomic effects of government tax and punishment policies, this paper develops a three-sector general equilibrium model featuring matching frictions and worker-firm wage bargaining. Workers are assumed to differ in ability, and the choice of education is determined endogenously. Job opportunities in an informal sector are available only to workers who choose not to acquire higher education. We find that increased punishment of informal activities increases the number of educated workers and reduces the number of unemployed workers. Considering welfare, we show it is optimal to choose punishment rates so to more than fully counteract the distortion created by the government’s inability to tax the informal sector. |
| Keywords: | Tax evasion; underground economy; education; matching; unemployment. |
| JEL: | H26 I21 J64 |
| Date: | 2006–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2003_012&r=dge |
| By: | Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a natural experiment, the large destruction of capital in continental Europe during World War II, to characterize the transitional dynamics of an economy that begins with a capital stock below its steady state level. We use these regularities as a benchmark to discriminate among competing growth specifications. A model that combines non-separabilities in preferences with a technology that restricts the degree of substitutability between inputs outperforms the widely used AK and Cobb-Douglas specifications with time-separable preferences. Our results suggest that policy evaluations based in growth models that overlook non-separabilities in preferences or impose strong restrictions on the technological structure might be grossly misleading. |
| JEL: | O40 E10 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcl:mclwop:2006-02&r=dge |
| By: | Mario J. Crucini (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is a non-technical review of research developments in the international real business cycle literature. International business cycle facts are summarize with particular attention to the sources of output variance from the expenditure side of the NIPA and the production side, using a familiar neoclassical production function. Theoretical developments focus on the how consumption smoothing and investment dynamics shape the current account; the search for sources and propagation mechanisms of international business cycle comovement and key facets of relative price determination (the real exchange rate and the terms of trade). |
| Keywords: | International business cycles, current account, real exchange rates |
| JEL: | A1 F4 E3 |
| Date: | 2006–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:0617&r=dge |
| By: | Orazio Attanasio; Margherita Borella |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a method to characterize the time series properties of individual consumption, income and interest rates using micro data, as studies in labour economics have characterized the time series properties of hours and earnings. Our approach, however, does not remove aggregate shocks. Having estimated the parameters of a flexible multivariate MA representation we relate the coefficients of our statistical model to structural parameters of theoretical models of consumption behaviour. Our approach offers a unifying framework that encompasses the Euler equation approach to the study of consumption and the studies that relate innovations to income to innovations to consumption, such as those that have found the so-called excess smoothness of consumption. Using a long time series of cross sections to construct synthetic panel data for the UK, we estimate our model and find that the restriction of Euler equations are typically not rejected, while the data show ‘excess smoothness’. |
| JEL: | C3 D1 E2 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12456&r=dge |
| By: | Hui He; Zheng Liu |
| Abstract: | Wage inequality between education groups in the United States has increased substantially since the early 1980s. The relative quantity of college-educated workers has also increased dramatically in the postwar period. This paper presents a unified framework where the dynamics of both skill accumulation and wage inequality arise as an equilibrium outcome driven by measured investment-specific technological change. Working through capital-skill complementarity and endogenous skill accumulation, the model is able to account for much of the observed changes in the relative quantity of skilled workers. The model also does well in replicating the observed rise in wage inequality since the early 1980s. Based on the calibrated model, we examine the quantitative effects of some hypothetical tax-policy reforms on skill formation, inequality, and welfare. |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emo:wp2003:0609&r=dge |
| By: | Allen Head (Queen's University); Alok Kumar (University of Victoria); Beverly Lapham (Queen's University) |
| Abstract: | We study the responses of real and nominal prices to random flutuations in costs and money growth using a monetary search economy in which there are no costs or temporal restrictions on sellers' ability to change prices. The economy exhibits a form of price stickiness in that the price level may react incompletely to either type of shock as a result of endogenous changes in the average mark-up driven by movements in consumers' search intensity. The average mark-up falls as inflation rises, a finding consistent with emprical observations. As a result of this reduction in market power, prices become more responsive to shocks as inflation rises. Our results are consistent with empirical findings that the degree of price adjustment in response to both cost and money growth shocks is increasing in the average rate of inflation, that the variance of inflation increases with its average level, and that positive and negative shocks to money growth have asymmetric effects. |
| Keywords: | Search, Mark-up, Inflation, Price Dispersion, Pass-through |
| JEL: | E31 D43 E42 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1089&r=dge |
| By: | Alan D. Viard |
| Abstract: | It is well known that pay-as-you-go retirement programs reduce steady-state welfare and the capital stock in dynamically efficient OLG economies. The common two-period OLG model obscures, however, the dependence of these effects on the ages at which taxes are paid and benefits are received. Program changes that shift taxes to older workers or benefits to younger retirees have effects similar to reductions in program size, yielding steady-state welfare gains and increases in capital accumulation while imposing transition costs on current generations. This analysis has policy implications for both tax and benefit timing.> |
| Keywords: | Social security ; Fiscal policy ; Taxation |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:0602&r=dge |
| By: | Rajnish Mehra |
| Abstract: | In this article we define a Recursive Competitive Equilibrium, provide an example and review the related literature. The article is an entry prepared for The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition (Palgrave Macmillan: New York). |
| JEL: | D5 D51 D61 D91 D92 E21 E22 E23 G12 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12433&r=dge |