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on Development |
| By: | Lukas Vashold; Gustav Pirich; Maximilian Heinze; Nikolas Kuschnig |
| Abstract: | Mining operations in Africa are expanding rapidly, creating negative externalities that remain poorly understood. In this paper, we provide causal evidence for the impact of water pollution from mines on downstream vegetation and agriculture across the continent. We exploit discontinuities in water pollution caused by mines along river networks to compare vegetation health upstream and downstream. We find that mines significantly reduce peak vegetation downstream, impairing the productivity of croplands. These effects correspond to substantial crop losses and highlight the environmental and agricultural externalities of mining activity. |
| Keywords: | mining, agriculture, water pollution, vegetation, externality, natural resources |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2025-9 |
| By: | Arpita Khanna (National University of Singapore); Minhaj Mahmud (Asian Development Bank); Nidhiya Menon (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates the impact of climate change on the incidence of noncommunicable diseases among older population in India. Using demographic and health surveys from 2019–2021 linked with georeferenced meteorological data at local levels, and a specification that controls for long-term local climate trends as well as individual and household characteristics, we show that unanticipated heat shocks have significant impacts on the prevalence of hypertension, high blood glucose levels, and overweight or obese status. The impact of heat shock on hypertension is somewhat more evident among urban, lower caste, and lower educated men, while the impact on glucose levels is more pronounced among the higher educated in urban settings. Body mass index is particularly sensitive to heat shocks in older rural women and individuals with higher education. Engagement in occupations more exposed to outdoor work (agriculture/manual) and lifestyle factors tied to wealth status are some explanatory mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | climate;temperature;older people;blood pressure;glucose level;BMI;India |
| JEL: | Q54 I12 J14 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022142 |
| By: | Huynh, Cong Minh |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether and how local governance quality shapes household economic resilience to climate shocks in Vietnam - one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable emerging economies. Combining nationally representative microdata from three rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (2018, 2020, 2022) with province-year indicators of disaster severity and governance performance (PAPI), we estimate a pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and interaction model with two-way fixed effects at the province and year levels to identify the moderating role of governance in the climate shock–income relationship. The results show that climate shocks significantly reduce household per-capita income, but higher-quality provincial governance substantially attenuates these losses. Marginal effects indicate that in high-governance provinces, the income-dampening effect of shocks becomes negligible. Moreover, governance benefits are markedly larger for vulnerable groups, including poor, rural, and agricultural households, suggesting that institutional quality can be inherently pro-poor in climate-stressed contexts. These findings advance the resilience and governance literature by providing micro-level causal evidence from a developing country and highlight governance strengthening as a core policy lever for climate adaptation, equitable development, and inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | Climate shocks; Governance quality; Household economic resilience; Vietnam |
| JEL: | O17 O18 O43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127322 |
| By: | Ana Aguilar; Rafael Guerra; Carola Müller; Alexandre Tombini |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on macroeconomic and financial variables in emerging market economies, focusing on Latin America. Using a panel dataset for Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico from 2005 to early 2025, we find that domestic EPU shocks cause significant macroeconomic disruptions, leading to a contraction in output and a rise in inflation, akin to a supply shock. These effects are transmitted through a financial channel in the short term, via higher risk premia, increased equity market volatility and exchange rate depreciations, and through a real channel in the medium term, via declines in growth expectations and consumer and business confidence. Our analysis further reveals that EPU shocks are most damaging when the economy is weak or financial conditions are tight, while stronger economies are better able to absorb such shocks. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomy, uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, Latin America |
| JEL: | C33 D80 E23 E31 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1324 |
| By: | Minhaj Mahmud (Asian Development Bank); Yujie Zhang (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the interplay between extreme temperatures and air pollution risks, the geographic and temporal distribution, as well as the population burden of climate shocks in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, and Viet Nam—countries severely impacted by climate change. Using ERA5-HEAT temperature data and PM2.5 pollution data, we first identify “hotspots” within and across the countries by analyzing district level trends in heat stress and pollution exposure. We further explore the correlation between temperature and pollution shocks. Finally, jointly considering the spatial distribution of populations and key climate and pollution hazards, we highlight the most vulnerable groups with population weighted exposure measures. Our findings reveal distinct country-specific patterns in both the correlation between heat stress and air pollution risk, and the population exposure to the hazards across demographic profiles. These results emphasize targeted policies to mitigate the compounded effects of climate and air pollution hazards on vulnerable populations across Asia. |
| Keywords: | heat;air pollution;climate change;Asia;population exposure |
| JEL: | J10 Q53 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022144 |
| By: | Thais Diniz Oliveira (Food Systems and Global Change, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA); Paula Pereda (Dept. of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil); Ademir Rocha (Dept. of Economics, Federal University of Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil); Samuel Bicego (Dept. of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil); Ana Clara Duran (NEPA, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | Carbon footprints have emerged as a key measure of anthropogenic pressure on the environment and are crucial for designing mitigation policies. However, obtaining an accurate assessment of these footprints requires accounting for the full range of emission sources and the regional variability embedded in production and consumption chains. To address these important issues, we quantify the carbon footprints of Brazilian households by combining multiple datasets and methodologies. We account for all major emission sources in Brazil (land-use change, agriculture and livestock, energy, industry, and waste) using a state-level multi-regional input–output (MRIO) framework integrated with household consumption microdata. Our analysis reveals that food, housing, and transport are the dominant drivers of per capita emissions among Brazilian households, with beef and dairy products emerging as key contributors within food consumption. Emissions increase sharply with income, shifting from food-related emissions in lower-income households to transport, housing, and services in wealthier ones. These results highlight the need for integrated climate policies that account for the full spectrum of emission sources while addressing regional disparities and income-related heterogeneity in emissions patterns. |
| Keywords: | Carbon footprints; Brazil; Region-specific; Emissions sources; Sustainability; Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:022143 |
| By: | Goyeneche, Laura; Bauhoff, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This study examines the characteristics of public sector 3, 470 hospitals with high and low risk-adjusted intra-hospital mortality rates in Brazil, using administrative data for 2023 and 2013 from the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) and data from the 2013 World Management Survey of 260 hospitals. In 2023, hospitals with a high risk-standardized mortality rate (RSMR) were predominantly large, urban facilities with high patient volumes, longer hospital stays, and greater ICU capacity, suggesting they treat more critically ill patients. The results also suggest that intra-hospital mortality worsened between 2013 and 2023, particularly in rural and small hospitals. Hospitals with high intra-hospital mortality in 2013 had stronger management practices, particularly in performance monitoring and target setting. These findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions, improved resource allocation, staffing strategies, and management practices to address disparities in hospital performance and patient care quality. Our analysis also highlights the importance of developing reliable and routine measures of hospital performance, including for quality of care. |
| Keywords: | Hospital performance;Healthcare quality;hospital management;Brazil |
| JEL: | I11 I18 H51 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14465 |
| By: | Ben Youssef, Slim |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of gross domestic product per capita (GDPC), the value of agricultural production (VAP), and the value of agricultural production per hectare (VAPH) on the forest area in Brazil by considering annual time series data ranging from 1990 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is used to estimate our long-run elasticities. The increase in the value of agricultural production reduces forest area in the long-run. However, the value of agricultural production per hectare and the gross domestic product per capita both have a U-shaped relationship with forest area. Indeed, with an increase in the VAPH (resp. GDPC), forest area decreases, then after a threshold point begins to increase. In Brazil, deforestation can be reversed by continuous economic growth accompanied by more propagation of environmental education within the population. Also, agricultural green technologies, as aeroponics for vegetable culture or smart agriculture, should be encouraged through subsidies or advantageous credits, as they increase the VAPH. |
| Keywords: | Value of agricultural production; Value of agricultural production per hectare; Gross domestic product per capita; U-shaped hypothesis; Autoregressive distributed lag; Brazil. |
| JEL: | C32 O44 O54 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127216 |
| By: | Cáceres Delpiano, Julio; Pinto Machado, Matilde |
| Abstract: | Recent research shows that municipal councilors direct resources and amenities toward the areas surrounding their own residences. This finding underscores the importance of residential diversification within councils, particularly in developing countries where inequalities betweenneighborhoods in the same municipality are especially pronounced. Yet evidence indicates that politicians frequently reside close to one another, which may lead to spatially concentrated representation in municipal councils. This observation raises a key question: what drives the geographicconcentration of politicians? If the election of one resident motivates others from the same neighborhood to run for office, the result may be a council that systematically under-represents other areas. The political process would unintentionally perpetuate, rather than alleviate, spatial inequalities within municipalities. Using precise data on the residences of municipal election candidates in Chile, we estimate the causal effect of electing a candidate on the emergence of future candidacies within a very narrow radius (300 meters) of their home. Applying a regression discontinuity design, we compare neighborhoods where a resident candidate was narrowly elected with those where a resident candidate narrowly lost by a similarly small margin. Our results indicate that the election of a neighbor prompts the emergence of (new) candidacies in the neighborhood. We discuss at least three mechanisms underlying these candidacies. Importantly, our results indicate persistence in the geographic composition of the council, driven primarily by the re-electionof incumbents. This incumbent advantage, however, is conditional on the councilor being pivotal or not aligned with the mayor. |
| Keywords: | Local effects of politicians; Inequality within jurisdictions; Selection of local candidates; Effects of local governments; Municipal elections; Municipal councils |
| JEL: | I28 H75 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:49114 |
| By: | Mr. Bas B. Bakker |
| Abstract: | Under dominant-currency pricing—where many export prices are set in dollars—the real exchange rate allocates export windfalls between producers and consumers. When the real exchange rate is stable, rising dollar export revenues pass through nearly one-for-one into higher real local-currency export income, profits, and retained earnings; when it appreciates, part of the windfall accrues to consumers through cheaper imports, compressing exporters' margins. National saving should therefore respond to real local-currency export income—the portion accruing to domestic producers—rather than to dollar receipts per se. Using five-year panels for 42 economies over 1982–2022, we find that the national saving rate rises by about 0.27 percentage points for each 1 percentage point of GDP increase in real local-currency export income, while dollar export income has no independent effect once the local-currency measure is included. Peru versus Brazil during the commodity boom, China's post-WTO export surge, and Argentina's 2002 devaluation validate the mechanism and its timing. A coefficient estimated from 41 countries predicts China's 9.7-percentage-point saving increase (2002–2007) with an error of just 0.1 point. These findings reinterpret the "global saving glut" as the aggregate outcome of export booms whose windfalls accrued disproportionately to high-saving producers when real exchange rates remained stable. |
| Keywords: | Dominant-currency pricing; real exchange rates; export profitability; national saving; global saving glut; export booms; structural transformation |
| Date: | 2026–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/009 |
| By: | Júlia Sbroglio Rizzotto (University of São Paulo); Shoshana Grossbard (San Diego State University); Marco Túlio A. França (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how geographic access to specialized Women’s Police Station (WPS) relates to whether episodes of violence against women are classified as intimate partner violence (IPV) in Brazil’s health system records. Using national administrative notifications (2010–2019) geocoded to health facilities and linked to WPS locations, we analyze 227, 172 women aged 18– 59 who identified a male perpetrator. Logistic regressions assess IPV correlates, with results presented as descriptive associations. Three sets of findings stand out. First, and most importantly, distance from a WPS and IPV are related and the association between distance to the nearest WPS and IPV classification varies by region: in the South and Midwest, the odds of IPV classification decline with distance, while in parts of the North and Northeast they rise with distance. Our uncovering that national averages conceal substantial geographic variation in access and reporting is a novel finding that has policy-relevant implications. Second, situational markers strongly predict IPV classification: episodes at the victim's residence, recurrent cases, and incidents involving an intoxicated perpetrator are much more likely to be classified as IPV, whereas weekday and daylight reports show lower odds. Third, violence concentrates among younger, Black, and less-educated women, while state capital cases are less likely classified as IPV, reflecting different urban service pathways. These findings indicate that specialized policing infrastructure correlates with health reporting patterns in complex ways. Aligning health services with policing infrastructure, particularly addressing alcohol-related cases and regional coverage gaps, may contribute to reducing violence against women. |
| Keywords: | aggression, logistic regression, health |
| JEL: | D63 H75 J12 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2026-001 |