|
on Development |
| By: | Cueto, Santiago; Beuermann, Diether; Cristia, Julian P.; Malamud, Ofer; Pardo, Francisco |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a large-scale randomized evaluation of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) program in 531 rural primary schools, as implemented by the Peruvian government starting in 2009. We use administrative and survey data on academic achievement and grade progression through 2019 to estimate the long-run effects of educational technology on i) academic performance and grade progression in schools over time and ii) student trajectories as they progress from primary school to university. We find negative and significant effects on completing primary and secondary education on time but no effects on achievement. We find positive and significant impacts on students' computer skills but no effects on broader cognitive skills. Information on teacher training and computer utilization suggests limited benefits of providing educational technology without sufficient pedagogical support. |
| Keywords: | Education;technology;Evaluation |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13786 |
| By: | Edgar Avalos; Jose Maria Barrero; Elwyn Davies; Leonardo Iacovone; Jesica Torres |
| Abstract: | We study business uncertainty in high- versus low-volatility environments by surveying over 31, 000 managers across 41 countries. We elicit subjective probability distributions for future own-firm sales and measure firm-level uncertainty with their mean absolute deviations. Analogously, we measure realized volatility using absolute forecast errors. We establish two new facts. (1) Subjective uncertainty and realized volatility both decline with GDP per capita. (2) Managers underestimate volatility everywhere (they are overprecise), but more so in low-volatility rich countries. We build a heterogeneous-firm dynamic model and show that our facts imply larger TFP gaps between the US and developing/emerging economies. In the model, high volatility generates investment and growth opportunities in poor countries. But high uncertainty and low overprecision slow reallocation and pull down poor-country output. Quantitatively, the volatility effect dominates, so we infer 30 to 40% lower TFP in poor countries to reconcile their high volatility and low GDP per capita. |
| Keywords: | managers, uncertainty, volatility, aggregate TFP, real options, development accounting |
| JEL: | D84 G31 G32 E22 E23 O11 D25 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11368 |
| By: | Rowe, Francisco; Cabrera-Arnau, Carmen; González-Leonardo, Miguel; Nasuto, Andrea; Neville, Ruth |
| Abstract: | The COVID‐19 pandemic has impacted population movement around the world. Existing work has focused on countries of the Global North and restricted to the immediate effects of COVID-19 during 2020. Data have represented a major limitation to monitor changes in mobility patterns in Latin American countries. Drawing on aggregate anonymised mobile phone location data from Meta‐Facebook users, we aim to analyse the extent and persistence of changes in the levels (or intensity) and spatial patterns of internal population movement across the rural-urban continuum in Argentina, Chile and Mexico over a 26-month period from March 2020 to May 2022. We reveal an overall systematic decline in the level of short- and long-distance movement during the enactment of nonpharmaceutical interventions in 2020, with the largest reductions occurred in the most dense areas. We also show that these levels bounced back closer to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 following the relaxation of COVID-19 stringency measures. However, the intensity of these movements remained below pre-pandemic levels in many areas in 2022. Our findings lend some support to the idea of an urban exodus. They reveal continuing negative net balances of short-distance movements in the most dense areas of capital cities in Argentina and Mexico, reflecting a pattern of suburbanisation. Chile displays limited changes in the net balance of short-distance movements but reports a net loss of long-distance movements. These losses were, however, temporary, moving to neutral and positive balances in 2021 and 2022. This contrasts with a systematic pattern of net migration losses observed for the Metropolitan Region of Santiago over the last 20 years. |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col045:80723 |
| By: | Alban Asllani; Roberto Dell'Anno; Friedrich Schneider |
| Abstract: | Using an enhanced MIMIC method, this paper presents new estimates of the Informal Economy (IE) for 110 countries from 1997 to 2022. We address several limitations found in previous estimates of the IE, notably issues surrounding the missing values, time-invariant country characteristics, and calibration issues with exogenous variables. We enhance the MIMIC model by including fixed effects for country-specific characteristics of IE, thereby providing more reliable estimates. Our findings show a significant variation in the key drivers of IE between high-income and not-high-income countries, exhibiting distinct causal effects on the IE depending on different economic developments. In terms of normative implications, our results highlight the need for specific and tailored policies in dealing with the formalisation of informal activities in countries with different levels of income. |
| Keywords: | informal economy, shadow economy, structural equation modelling, MIMIC approach |
| JEL: | O17 C39 H26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11416 |
| By: | Jérémie Bertrand (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]); Paul-Olivier Klein (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon); Fotios Pasiouras (Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School) |
| Abstract: | High secrecy cultures are characterized by a preference for confidentiality and non-disclosure of information. This study documents the impact of cultural differences in secrecy on firms' access to credit. We use data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for a large sample of firms operating in 35 countries from 2010 to 2019. We show that firms operating in countries with higher levels of secrecy are less likely to apply for credit when they need it—they are more discouraged—and also less likely to receive credit when they do apply—they are more rationed. The underlying economic channels are greater opacity and corruption in cultures with high secrecy. The effect of cultural secrecy on credit discouragement and credit rationing is moderated by trust in banks, interpersonal trust, and firms' financial dependence on external sources. We control for several potential alternative drivers and conduct several robustness tests. The results confirm that firms have better access to credit in cultures that promote transparency and information disclosure. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04691594 |
| By: | Tara Bedi (Trinity College Dublin); Lukas Kuld (Kemmy Business School, University of Limerick) |
| Abstract: | We use the uneven roll-out of accountability measures to identify their impact on the provision of guaranteed employment in rural Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, India. The public information campaign in the first stage of the accountability intervention led treated households to increase workdays during the non-lean agriculture season. This timing, contrary to the interests of local employers, suggests a more demand-driven provision of days worked. After the addition of an NGO supported grievance mechanism, treated households also work relatively more days during the lean season. These estimates, based on three rounds of Young Lives survey data, suggest that the combination of accountability measures enhanced the fulfillment of work entitlements. The paper further discusses the implementation of India's workfare program, accountability failures, and the design of the accountability measures. |
| Keywords: | Administrative processes, Corruption, Information and Knowledge, Labor Supply, Workers' Rights |
| JEL: | D73 D83 J22 J83 |
| Date: | 2024–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lim:wpaper:2401 |
| By: | Dorgyles C.M. Kouakou (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM – UMR6211, F-35000 Rennes France) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the effects of informal firms on the operations of registered firms at three levels. First, we provide the first global evidence on the causal effect of competition from informal firms – referred to as informal competition – on the credit constraints faced by registered firms. Using a large firm-level dataset from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, covering 145 countries and over 141, 000 observations, and employing the instrumental variable method to address the endogeneity of informal competition, we find that registered firms competing against informal firms are significantly more likely to be credit-constrained than those that do not. This result holds after controlling for economic development, financial development, economic conditions, and the institutional environment across different countries, regardless of firm size and sector, and it remains robust across a variety of robustness tests. Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean indicates that the effect of informal competition is stronger in these regions than in the rest of the world. Second, we show that the impact of informal competition diminishes with higher financial development and firm productivity. Third, we demonstrate that self-financing capacity, capacity utilization, and informal payments are key channels through which informal competition exacerbates credit constraints for registered firms. |
| Keywords: | nformal competition; Formal-informal linkages; Credit constraints; Productivity; Financial development; Transmission channels |
| JEL: | D24 G20 O12 O16 O17 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:2024-10 |
| By: | Mondal, Bandana; Sarkhel, Prasenjit |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between female employment and nutritional status in rural India, using data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5). Constructing a nutrition index that captures the extent of food intake, we find that employed women are nutritionally worse off than their unemployed counterparts. This negative effect persists even after correcting for the potential endogeneity of female employment and nutrition, with robustness checks across different food items, alternative measures such as Body Mass Index (BMI), and district-level economic conditions, proxied by nightlights data. We also find suggestive evidence of greater intra-household food disparity between employed women and their male counterparts. Further analysis reveals that spousal violence—exacerbated by female employment—plays a significant role in undermining women's nutritional outcomes, while the positive effect of increased decision-making power is comparatively weaker. This dynamic is evident across all wealth quintiles, suggesting that higher economic status does not mitigate these adverse effects. The findings highlight the need for employment policies that incorporate nutritional support for working women, as well as interventions to reduce intra-household conflict, ensuring that employment translates into both economic and health gains for women in rural India. |
| Keywords: | Nutritional status, Female Employment, NFHS-5, Instrumental Variable |
| JEL: | D13 I14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:305191 |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang (World Bank); Cuong Viet Nguyen (Viet Nam National University, and the Mekong Development Research Institute, Hanoi, Viet Nam) |
| Abstract: | We examine the Covid-19 pandemic-induced negative effects on household welfare in rural Viet Nam. Analysing recent Viet Nam Household Living Standard Surveys spanning 2016–2021, we find robust evidence that lockdown measures resulted in a 3.9% reduction in per capita income and a 2.6 percentage-point increase in the headcount poverty rate of rural households. It also had severe effects on rural households’ wages and self-employed non-farm income, but rural households appeared to have relied on farm income to cope with the lockdowns. Each additional month under lockdown reduced wage income and non-farm income by 2.8% and 6.3% respectively but increased. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, urban-rural gap, income, poverty, rural households, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | E24 I30 J21 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-23 |
| By: | Deshpande, Ashwini (Ashoka University); Singh, Jitendra (Thapar School of Liberal Arts and Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Mainstream literature attributes the decline in female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) in India between 2004-05 and 2017-18 primarily to supply-side factors. In this paper, we show that, in fact, demand-side factors are predominantly responsible for the decline. We begin by demonstrating that the contribution of supply-side factors to the FLFPR decline has been reducing over time. Changes in supply-side factors explain a miniscule part of the decline between 2011-12 and 2017-18. We estimate the contribution of structural transformation and local labour demand as the key determinants of declining FLFPR. Our identification strategy uses the Bartik shift-share instrument as the instrumental variable for measuring exogenous change in local labour demand. We find that female employment is highly responsive to local labour demand, but not male employment. The period of decline in FLFPR has also been a period of "jobless growth". We show that women have borne the brunt of the stagnant employment creation from 2004-05 onwards. Our analysis suggests that India needs to focus on creating rural non-farm jobs to boost FLFPR. |
| Keywords: | female labour force participation rate, employment, social norms, India, labour demand |
| JEL: | J23 J71 J16 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17368 |
| By: | Bhushan Praveen Jangam (School of Management and Entrepreneurship, Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, India); Badri Narayan Rath (Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Kandi, Sangareddy, Telangana – 502 284, India) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between global value chain (GVC) integration and business cycle synchronisation in selected Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries from 2007 to 2021. Using a panel fixed effects approach, we discover the following key findings: First, we find that GVC integration is associated with both output synchronisation and desynchronisation in ASEAN countries. Second, we notice that the outcomes differ depending on the type of GVC integration, such as forward integration, backward integration, or two-sided integration. Third, for a more in-depth understanding, we conduct an industry-specific analysis. We examine three major industry categories: manufacturing, services, and high-technology industries. The findings show mixed evidence of an association between GVC integration and BCS in these industries. The findings highlight the shock transmission associated with GVC integration. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains; Business cycle synchronisation; Fixed effects; Industries; ASEAN |
| JEL: | F1 C5 L6 L8 |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-28 |