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on Development |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Makate, Clifton (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tione, Sarah E. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Reliable measurement of farm size is central to empirical research on agricultural structure, land inequality, and land use efficiency in developing countries. Most studies rely on single-round household survey data and implicitly assume that reported farm size is stable and accurately measured. This paper questions that assumption using balanced panel data from Ethiopia and Malawi. <p> We exploit within-household variation over time by comparing reported owned farm size in each survey round to the household-specific maximum observed across rounds, interpreted as an upper-envelope benchmark. We document large and widespread shortfalls from this benchmark that are frequently reversed across survey rounds, indicating episodic instability rather than monotonic landholding change. Instability is strongly associated with parcel attrition – captured by deviations from maximum plot counts and unmeasured parcels – while indicators of real landholding change explain little of the observed variation. <p> These findings imply that instability in reported owned farm size can materially affect measured farm size distributions, land inequality, and inferences about land markets and allocative efficiency. |
| Keywords: | farm size measurement; land ownership; panel survey data; land inequality; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | C23 D31 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2026_001 |
| By: | Sara Balestri (Dipartimento di Economia, Università di Perugia, Italy); Raul Caruso (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - European Center of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC), Catholic University ‘Our Lady of Good Counsel’, Tirana, Albania) |
| Abstract: | We analyse to what extent land-related institutional settings affect the likelihood of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa and whether this relationship is conditioned by climate variability. Using a country–year panel covering the period 1990–2024, we focus on the occurrence of communal violence and examine the role of legal transparency and predictable enforcement of laws. The empirical analysis relies on a panel probit model for binary outcomes, controlling for socio-economic characteristics, land-use patterns, demographic pressure, and conflict persistence. The results show that higher levels of legal transparency and more predictable enforcement are consistently associated with a significantly lower likelihood of communal violence. This relationship proves robust across alternative specifications and sample restrictions. To address potential endogeneity in institutional quality, we implement a set of complementary strategies to account for unobserved heterogeneity, while exploiting early post-independence institutional conditions to mitigate concerns related to reverse causality. These checks support the robustness of the baseline association. Climate variability does not emerge as an independent driver of communal violence. Instead, drought acts as a threat multiplier by conditionally weakening the conflict-mitigating effect of legal institutions. Interaction effects indicate that while improvements in institutional quality substantially reduce the probability of communal violence under normal climatic conditions, this stabilizing effect progressively diminishes as drought severity increases and becomes negligible under severe drought. Therefore, as drought severity increases, the mitigating role of institutions progressively weakens. Overall, the findings highlight the central role of legal transparency and predictable enforcement in managing land-related tensions, while showing that their effectiveness is contingent on environmental stress. |
| Keywords: | communal violence, land institutional settings, climate shock, conflicts, Africa |
| JEL: | D74 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0057 |
| By: | Dikgang, Johane; Magambo, Isaiah; Bachu, Kiana; Kimani, Mumbi |
| Abstract: | This study assesses how pandemic-related job losses and social protection impacted food security in South Africa using five waves of data from the NIDS-CRAM survey of 794 individuals. Job loss increased food insecurity by 5.2% (14%), consistent across five methods and lasting for 12 months. COVID-19 grants, including the R350/month Social Relief of Distress grant, reduced food insecurity by 3.8% (10%). The link between employment and food security extends beyond income loss: job loss increased income decline by 8.7%, accounting for less than a third of the total food security effect. Grants mainly worked through non-income benefits, such as psychological support, better food planning, and logistics. The effects were larger for low-income, less-educated households, and families with children. Recommendations include increasing grant levels to 30-40% of median wages, extending the duration, reducing delays, and linking grants with employment services. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, Food Security, Unemployment, COVID-19, Causal Inference, Social Protection |
| JEL: | I15 I31 C21 C23 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1734 |
| By: | Luck, Nathalie (University of Passau and TU Munich); Grimm, Michael (University of Passau); Tamtomo, Kristian (Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta) |
| Abstract: | Most impact assessments of agricultural training evaluate one-time interventions over short time horizons. However, farmers may initially show enthusiasm for a new technology but subsequently dis-adopt it after a trial period, while others may adopt practices gradually over time. This study investigates the causal impact of repeated agricultural training on the adoption of organic farming practices among Indonesian smallholder farmers. Using a randomized controlled trial and four waves of panel data spanning five years, we analyze adoption dynamics over time. Farmers in the treatment group received training twice, once in 2018 and again in 2022. Our findings show that repeated training significantly increased the adoption of organic farming practices, but no evidence that training motivated farmers to fully transition to organic farming. Adoption patterns reveal substantial dis-adoption, re-adoption, and late adoption following repeated training. The results contribute to understanding longer-term adoption dynamics after extension programs and provide insights into the challenges faced by smallholder farmers transitioning to sustainable agricultural practices. |
| Keywords: | organic farming, training, skills, technology adoption, information constraints, extension services, Indonesia |
| JEL: | C93 J24 J43 O12 O13 Q12 Q15 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18479 |
| By: | Berlinski, Samuel (Inter-American Development Bank); Giannola, Michele (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and the Institute for Fiscal Studies); Toppeta, Alessandro (SOFI, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and interaction of family- and school -based learning interventions using a randomized controlled trial in Colombia that assigns children to a parental engagement program, a teacher professional development program, both, or a control group. Both interventions are grounded in a child-centered learning approach that emphasizes active engagement and the progression from informal to formal mathematical understanding. Each intervention independently generates sizable and statistically similar gains in early numeracy (0.17σ and 0.20σ). Combining them produces no additional learning gains, suggesting that the two interventions act as substitutes over the time horizon and skill domain we study. When benefits accruing to future cohorts are taken into account, the teacher development program becomes at least as cost-effective as, and potentially more cost-effective than, the parental engagement intervention. Our results suggest that, in this setting, strategically concentrating resources on a single binding constraint – either at home or in school – maximizes the short-run learning gains per dollar spent. |
| Keywords: | numeracy, childhood development, teacher development, parental engagement, randomized control trial, Colombia |
| JEL: | I21 I25 O15 J13 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18485 |
| By: | Federico Corredor (Public Finance Research Cluster, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | The Orange Economy Policy (PEN) was Colombia’s flagship initiative (2018-2022) to position Cultural and Creative Industries (CCIs) as engines of economic development. Using administrative payroll tax data from 2016-2022, this paper employs difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods to evaluate PEN’s impact on the formal economy. The results show that PEN increased firm creation and employment while reducing sole proprietorships and self-employment, consistent with a reallocation of economic activity toward more structured, firm-based production. These findings suggest that entry and hiring respond relatively quickly to targeted incentives, whereas wages and pension contributions depend on longer-term consolidation. The paper provides causal evidence on the effects of industrial policy in a non-traditional sector, highlighting its potential to promote formalization and reshape the organization of economic activity, while underscoring the importance of sustained implementation and institutional stability to translate short-term successes into long-term economic transformation. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2616 |
| By: | Mr. Alberto Behar |
| Abstract: | Skilled wage premia in Latin American countries have continued declining, albeit more slowly and unevenly. Is the decline driven by demand or supply? This paper proposes a novel adaptation to the demand-supply decomposition framework by incorporating directed technical change (DTC), specifically supply-induced skill-biased technical change that acts to increase the wage premium. DTC counters the traditional substitution effect through which higher education wage attainment reduces the skill premium. Therefore, DTC makes adjusted inferred demand changes less skill biased than the standard framework’s traditional inferred demand changes. We apply the framework to ten Latin American countries over three periods, namely the length of the sample, the period between maximum wage premia and 2015, and since 2015. In our baseline results, DTC is quantitatively significant while the substitution effects remain important. Traditional demand shifts were skill biased over the length of the sample including since 2015 but our novel adjusted demand shifts were skill neutral. During the period between maximum premia and 2015, unadjusted demand shifts were skill-neutral and adjusted demand shifts favored unskilled workers. Equivalently, sizeable DTC effects imply wages would have fallen significantly faster in the absence of DTC. For an alternative elasticity of 1.25, DTC effects are smaller, supply effects are bigger, and adjustments to demand effects are smaller. For alternative supply measures, the results are relatively robust. |
| Keywords: | Skill-biased technical change; directed technical change; elasticity of substitution; schooling premium; wage premium; wage inequality. |
| Date: | 2026–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/054 |
| By: | Hector Galindo-Silva |
| Abstract: | The European colonization of sub-Saharan Africa drove a massive shift from indigenous religions to Christianity, yet the channels through which this transformation occurred remain poorly understood. Using a geographic regression discontinuity design at colonial borders in sub-Saharan Africa, I find that Christian adherence is substantially higher under French and Portuguese direct rule than under British indirect rule -- a gap that implies a correspondingly greater persistence of traditional religions where indirect rule prevailed. Neither mission presence nor pre-colonial political centralization can account for the discontinuity. Instead, the evidence points to the disruption of the inherited social order as the key channel: where direct rule eroded rigid traditional social structures, Christianity -- which bypassed hereditary boundaries -- expanded to fill the void; where indirect rule preserved them, indigenous religions endured. These findings shed light on the dynamics of religious identity change and how it was shaped by colonialism. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.04777 |
| By: | Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | India has achieved near-universal electrification, yet large inequalities persist in the reliability of the electricity supply. Combining high-resolution satellite-based measures of electricity reliability—defined as the share of nights with detectable illumination—with village-level census data, this paper shows that reliability remains systematically unequal across social groups. While Scheduled Caste villages largely track district-level reliability, Scheduled Tribe (ST) villages face a pronounced enclave penalty. Homogeneous ST enclaves (ST population ≥90%) exhibit 10.7 percentage points fewer illuminated nights than otherwise comparable villages within-district with low ST shares. We further identify a mobility trap: homogeneous ST enclaves are about 16.6 (16.0) percentage points more likely to remain energy poor in 2012 (2019) and 11.7 percentage points less likely to escape energy poverty between 2012 and 2019. These findings suggest that as access becomes universal, infrastructure exclusion increasingly operates through a less visible rationing of service quality in socially homogeneous tribal settlements. |
| Keywords: | electricity reliability, energy poverty, caste, tribes, India, night-time lights |
| JEL: | O13 O18 Q41 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18493 |