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on Development |
| By: | Bleck, Jaimie; Carrillo, Lucia; Gottlieb, Jessica; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Soumano, Moumouni |
| Abstract: | We surveyed 2, 919 community leaders across seven regions of Mali to provide insights on the prevalence and severity of shocks and crises across localities; which types of shocks and crises are most difficult from which to recover; the formal and informal ways in which local actors are involved in aid distribution systems; and the types of programming local actors view as most beneficial for promoting resilience. Despite increasing prevalence of conflict across localities, leaders predominately cited climate-related shocks as the most difficult from which to recover— especially droughts. We find that localities vary in the inclusiveness of local governance around aid distribution: while elected mayors are almost always involved, traditional leaders, women’s group and youth leaders in villages, civil servants, and civil society leaders are each involved in 40–60% of localities. We used both a budget allocation exercise and an experimental game in which we introduced the concept of anticipatory action (AA) programming—aid that is “triggered” by an early warning signal to arrive before a shock and mitigate its worst effects—to probe preferences over aid modality. We found that leaders see value in balancing investment across resilience programming (including AA) and humanitarian response, especially food aid. However, there is some important variation between village- and commune-level officials: village-level leaders are more likely to prioritize aid modalities that target households directly, like food aid and cash transfers, while commune-level leaders are more likely to prioritize risk prevention trainings. Our findings have important policy implications for promoting local resilience in Mali, including the importance of investing more in drought resilience, engaging actors at different levels of local governance who have different information and perspectives, and simultaneously investing in capacity-building around early warning system accuracy and dissemination. |
| Keywords: | governance; climate; conflicts; resilience; Mali; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:152260 |
| By: | Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Abstract: | We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks. |
| Keywords: | fertilizer application; smallholders; household surveys; yield response factor; shock; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:148984 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Hirvonen, Kalle; Zafar, Sarim |
| Abstract: | Over the last 20 years, a burgeoning scholarly literature has analyzed the effects of cash transfer and cash plus interventions in a wide range of contexts and using a range of empirical designs. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled effect of any cash or cash plus intervention on livelihoods-related outcomes (consumption, income and labor supply), ultimately compiling 305 different treatment estimates from 155 treatment arms in 104 studies (and in 43 countries). Using random effects and multilevel models, our findings suggest that cash transfer programming is associated with an increase of between $1 and $2 in monthly household consumption and income per $100 in cumulative transfers, an effect that persists for a period of roughly three years (inclusive of the period of program implementation); this effect is meaningfully larger (as much as $4 larger) for cash transfer programs that also include a cash plus livelihoods intervention. There are no significant effects observed on labor force participation. We also present a range of estimates capturing the longer-term (cumulative) effects of cash transfers on consumption under alternate assumptions. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; consumption; income; livelihoods |
| Date: | 2024–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:148881 |
| By: | Lee, Seungmin; Abay, Kibrom A.; Barrett, Christopher B.; Hoddinott, John F. |
| Abstract: | Resilience measurement has received substantial attention over the past decade or so. Existing measures, however, relate resilience to a single well-being indicator. This may be problematic in contexts where households face deprivations in multiple dimensions. We explore how sensitive estimates of household-level resilience are to the specific well-being indicator used and show that measures are only weakly correlated across different, reasonable indicators based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings. We then introduce a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating the probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approach of Cissé and Barrett (2018) with the multidimensional poverty measurement method of Alkire and Foster (2011). Applying the new method to household panel data, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. |
| Keywords: | assets; consumption; dietary diversity; livestock; nutrition; poverty; resilience; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:151999 |
| By: | Schulte, Erik V.; Kaplan, Lennart |
| Abstract: | Global powers increasingly use trade as a tool of geopolitical influence. But can trade also foster soft power? We provide novel evidence on this relationship by combining geo-referenced survey data from 22 African countries sourced from the Gallup World Poll with Chinese import data. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in manufacturing imports induced by the "China shock, " we find that trade does not affect African citizens' attitudes towards China in the aggregate. However, the China shock is associated with higher perceived incomes and contributes to more favorable views of China in African countries with low technological intensity. Most notably, among citizens in democratic regimes, increased trade exposure is associated with more favorable perceptions of China, suggesting that political context mediates the effectiveness of trade-based soft power. |
| Keywords: | Trade, soft power, China-Africa, China shock, Gallup World Poll |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:320431 |
| By: | Leonard Le Roux |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the emergence of violence in legal markets, with a particular focus on the informal public transport sector in South Africa, where minibus taxis are integral to urban mobility. Despite being a legal sector, the taxi industry is plagued by significant and persistent violence, imposing substantial social costs. Using novel administrative data from the government's operating licence system, route-level pricing information, and a unique dataset of taxi-related violence compiled from print and online media, I examine the interplay between competition, firm growth, and violence. |
| Keywords: | Informality, Transportation, Violence, South Africa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-45 |
| By: | Giuliana Pardelli; Julieta Peveri |
| Abstract: | Understanding how to tackle clientelism is crucial for enhancing political accountability. While its negative impacts on governance are well-documented, less is known about strategies to disrupt these networks. This paper argues that stricter enforcement of labor regulations can weaken clientelistic practices. Using an instrumental variable approach based on within-municipality changes in proximity to labor offices and state-level variations in labor inspectors in Brazil, we find that enhanced enforcement significantly reduces the electoral success of clientelistic parties and curtails patronage and vote-buying. These outcomes are largely driven by a decline in informal workers, who are more likely to support clientelistic parties. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2025-05 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila |
| Abstract: | Nutrition-sensitive agricultural diversification continues to receive interest among developing country stakeholders as a viable option for achieving dual goals of poverty reduction and food/nutrition security improvements. Assessing the effectiveness of this strategy is also essential in countries like Tajikistan. We attempt to enrich the evidence base in this regard. We assess the linkages between household-level agricultural diversification and dietary diversity (both household- and individual-levels) using unique panel samples of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province. Using difference-in-difference propensity-score methods and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions, we show that higher agricultural diversification together with greater overall production per worker and land at the household level leads to higher dietary diversity, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Typology analyses and crop-specific analyses suggest that vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products and eggs are particularly important commodities for which a farmer’s own production contributes to dietary diversity improvement. Furthermore, decomposition exercises within the subsistence farming framework suggest that nutritional returns and costs of agricultural diversification vary across households, and expected nutritional returns may be partly driving the adoption of agricultural diversification. In other words, households’ decisions to diversify agriculture may be partly driven by potential nutritional benefits associated with enhanced direct on-farm access to diverse food items rather than farm income growth alone. Our findings underscore the importance of supporting household farm diversification in Tajikistan to support improved nutrition intake, especially among those living in remote areas. In a low-income setting with limited local employment opportunities that is vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, this will likely continue to be one of the most straightforward and realistic paths to improving household’s nutrition resilience. |
| Keywords: | dietary diversity; food security; nutrition; propensity score matching; agriculture; modelling; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:140750 |
| By: | Ray, Soumyajit; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Bhanjdeo, Arundhita; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs)—farmer collectives, often legally registered - can mitigate some of the constraints smallholder farmers face by improving their access to extension, services, and markets, especially for women. We evaluate the effects of a set of interventions delivered through women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, India, using a panel of 1200 households and a difference-in-difference model with nearest neighbor matching. A complementary qualitative study in the same areas helps triangulate and interpret our findings. The interventions aimed to improve agricultural productivity by coordinating production and improving access to services, while also providing gender sensitization trainings to FPO leaders and members. We collect household data on asset ownership and agricultural outcomes and individual data on women’s and men’s empowerment using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). Our results for asset ownership, land cultivated, cropping intensity, and per acre yields, revenues or costs are statistically insignificant. Effects on men’s and women's empowerment are mixed. While we see positive effects on women’s decisionmaking, asset ownership, control over income and attitudes towards intimate partner violence, the program is associated with an increase in workload and a reduction in active group membership for both men and women. Men appear to cede control over resources and decisionmaking to other household members. Additional analyses suggest that while some effects can occur in the short-term, others take time to accrue. FPO based interventions that aim to empower women or other marginalized groups likely require sustained investments over multiple years and will need to go beyond improving FPO functioning and increasing women’s participation to transforming social norms. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; farmers organizations; cooperatives; markets; prices; yields; empowerment; smallholders; women; gender; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:151877 |
| By: | Heidland, Tobias; Michael, Maximilian; Schularick, Moritz; Thiele, Rainer |
| Abstract: | Official development assistance (ODA) is widely studied for its impact on recipient countries, but its effects on donor countries remain underexplored. To address this gap systematically, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding when foreign aid generates measurable returns for donor countries as well as those cases when donor and recipient interests align-what we term mutual interest ODA. We categorize potential donor benefits into three domains: economic, geopolitical, and security-related, and distinguish these benefits by their timing and degree of directness. We then systematically survey the empirical evidence on donor benefits, assessing the empirical credibility and magnitude of estimated effects and pointing out research gaps. We find consistent evidence of substantial donor benefits across all three domains. A key insight is that aggregate aid flows often mask significant variation: The returns to donors depend critically on the type of aid, delivery modality, and recipient context. These findings have important implications for both academic and policy debates on the effectiveness, political sustainability, and future direction of development aid. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, donor country benefits, aid effectiveness, development policy |
| JEL: | F35 O19 H87 D64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:319886 |
| By: | Jhonatan Vicuna (Central Reserve Bank of Peru); Renzo Castellares (Central Reserve Bank of Peru) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of natural events on the economic vulnerability of Peruvian households, with a focus on the role of frequency and severity. We combine detailed, high-frequency administrative data from emergency records at the district level provided by the National Institute of Civil Defense (INDECI) and nationally representative household survey data to construct householdlevel exposure measures. We define frequency as the number of distinct weeks with recorded events in a household's district of residence, while severity is based on the number of individuals affected and displaced by each event. To account for the potential effect of treatment lags, we employ a recent differences-in-differences estimator, an approach not yet widely applied in the natural disaster literature and particularly relevant in contexts where such events are frequent and varied. While natural events overall show limited effects on economic outcomes, we find that high-frequency and high-severity exposure is associated with slower income and consumption growth, with effects that persist and even intensify over time. These findings suggest that households display a degree of resilience that weakens when events are too frequent or severe. We also document heterogeneity by type of natural event: low temperature episodes reduce income growth, whereas precipitation-related events might have positive economic effects. |
| Keywords: | economic vulnerability; household welfare; natural disasters; natural events; shocks |
| JEL: | D12 I32 O12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp07-2025 |