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on Development |
| By: | Anil K. Jain; Siddharth Kothari |
| Abstract: | Poorer countries (and poorer states within India) have a larger share of manufacturing employment in small plants. This paper presents empirical evidence and a theoretical model to show that this relationship is driven by greater demand for lower quality goods in poorer regions, which can be produced efficiently in small plants. First, using data for India, we show that richer households buy higher price goods and larger plants produce higher price products. Second, we develop a model that matches these facts. Finally, we find that our model explains about forty percent of the cross-state variation in the size distribution of manufacturing plants in India. |
| Keywords: | Firm size distribution; Product quality; India |
| JEL: | O11 O16 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1417 |
| By: | Tennant, Elizabeth J.; Michuda, Aleksandr; Upton, Joanna B.; Chamorro, Andres; Engstrom, Ryan; Mann, Michael L.; Newhouse, David; Weber, Michael; Barrett, Christopher B. |
| Abstract: | Exposure to extreme weather events and other adverse shocks has led to an increasing number of humanitarian crises in developing countries in recent years. These events cause acute suffering and compromise future welfare by adversely impacting human capital formation among vulnerable populations. Early and accurate detection of ad- verse shocks to food security, health, and schooling is critical to facilitating timely and well-targeted humanitarian interventions to minimize these detrimental effects. Yet monitoring data are rarely available with the frequency and spatial granularity needed. This paper uses high-frequency household survey data from the Rapid Feedback Monitoring System, collected in 2020–23 in southern Malawi, to explore whether combining monthly data with publicly available remote-sensing features improves the accuracy of machine learning extrapolations across time and space, thereby enhancing monitoring efforts. In the sample, illnesses and schooling disruptions are not reliably predicted. However, when both lagged outcome data and geospatial features are available, intertemporal and spatiotemporal prediction of food insecurity indicators is promising. |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11202 |
| By: | Bhukta, Rikhia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the unintended gendered effects of manufacturing growth in India, focusing on son preference. For identification, I leverage a place-based tax exemption policy under the Finance Act of 1994, which incentivized manufacturing sector investments in backward districts, and employ a regression discontinuity design using three nationally representative datasets. Results show increases in women's stated son preference, likelihood of having at least one son, and son-to-daughter ratios. Higher son preference is mediated through male-biased employment gains in the manufacturing sector, stagnant female employment, reinforced patriarchal gender norms, and dowry inflation. The findings underscore that not all drivers of structural transformation benefit women, as gender norms shape who gains from growth. By documenting these spillovers, this study broadens the understanding of manufacturing policies and their social costs. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing Growth, Son Preference, Gender Norms, Place-Based Policies, Regression Discontinuity |
| JEL: | J16 O14 J13 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1664 |
| By: | Francisco Javier Lasso-Valderrama; Mario Andrés Ramos-Veloza |
| Abstract: | This study examines the cyclical and structural determinants of Labor Force Participation (LFP) in Colombia between 1984 and 2024, focusing on the gender gap and its implications for potential economic growth. We find that higher female participation drove the upward LFP trend until 2014 and that the added worker e ect predominates during economic fluctuations, particularly for women. Projecting the LFP to 2035 under various scenarios, we show that halving the gender gap could increase the potential annual GDP growth by up to 0.41 pp. This underscores the significant potential of increased female participation in driving economic growth and the need for supportive policy. *****RESUMEN: Este estudio analiza los factores cíclicos y estructurales que determinan la participación laboral en Colombia entre 1984 y 2024, centrándose en la brecha de género y sus implicaciones para el crecimiento económico potencial. Se encuentra que la mayor participación femenina impulsó la tendencia alcista hasta 2014, y que el efecto trabajador adicional predomina durante las fluctuaciones económicas, particularmente en las mujeres. Al proyectar la participación laboral hacia 2035 bajo distintos escenarios, se observa que reducir la brecha de género a la mitad podría incrementar el PIB potencial hasta en 0, 41 puntos porcentuales anuales, lo que subraya el significativo potencial del aumento de la participación femenina para impulsar el crecimiento económico y la necesidad de políticas de apoyo. |
| Keywords: | Labor force participation, Gender gap, Demographics, Economic growth, Participación Laboral, Brecha de género, Demografía, Crecimiento económico |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1326 |
| By: | Aregbeshola, B.S.;; Salmasi, L.;; Shomali, K.W.A.; |
| Abstract: | People living in poverty generally do not have proper access to food and nutrition, with negative consequences for their children’s health and possible long-term negative effects in terms of human capital accumulation, health, and labor market achievements. In this paper, we examine the relationship between poverty and children’s nutritional status using the 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys. We adopt an approach based on instrumental variables to control for endogeneity. Our study finds that poverty reduced weight-for-height, weight-for-age, and height-for-age Z-scores by 21.32, 30.33, and 27.67 percentage points, respectively. We also find that poverty increases the likelihood of a child being wasted, underweight, and stunted by 5.99, 5.49, and 6.99 percentage points. We show that the mechanisms underlying the relationship between poverty and children’s nutritional status are health care service utilization, maternal health care service use, household nutrition, child-specific nutrition intake, maternal nutrition, and illness episodes. |
| Keywords: | poverty; wasting; underweight; stunting; Nigeria; |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I31 I32 C18 C26 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:25/08 |
| By: | Ciaschi, Matias; Falcone, Guillermo; Garganta, Santiago; Gasparini, Leonardo; Bertín, Octavio; Ramírez-Leira, Lucía |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices---the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the Complementarity-Adjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AI-Generated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)--to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI- related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies. |
| JEL: | O33 J21 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14253 |
| By: | Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Salmeron Gomez, Daylan Alberto; Engilbertsdottir, Solrun; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Delamonica, Enrique; Yablonski, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first estimates of extreme child poverty and child poverty using the World Bank’s recently revised international poverty lines. Using the international poverty line of $3.00 per day and the higher $8.30 per day poverty line (both expressed in 2021 purchasing power parity), the paper provides new results of the global and regional trends over 2014–24. The estimates show that 19.2 percent of children, approximately 412 million children, were living on less than $3.00 (2021 PPP) per day as of 2024, a reduction from 507 million children in 2014. This long-term decrease was slower than that for the general population. At the higher line of $8.30, the child poverty rate in 2024 was 65.9 percent, representing around 1.4 billion children, a drop from the 73.1 percent registered in 2014. At the regional level, the East Asia and Pacific and South Asia regions witnessed significant reductions in child poverty and extreme child poverty between 2014 and 2024, and the Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean regions showed reductions mostly in child poverty. In the same period, there was an increase in extreme child poverty in the Middle East and North Africa region. Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a “lost decade” of child poverty reduction between 2014 and 2024, increasing its concentration of global poverty. In 2024, Sub-Saharan Africa hosted more than three-quarters of children in extreme poor households (more than 311 million children), although its share of the global child population was around 23 percent. Country-level results show evidence of regional heterogeneity in progress against extreme child poverty. |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11203 |
| By: | Aristizábal-Ramírez, María; Santos, Cezar; Torres, Alejandra |
| Abstract: | This paper examines labor markets across Latin American countries and documents large differences in labor market outcomes across these countries. Using comparable data for eight countries, we show that unemployment and informality act as substitute states and cluster countries into high-unemployment or high-informality groups. Labor market transitions vary systematically across these groups and help explain differences in employment dynamics. Embedding country-specific transitions in a simple model, we show that these differences have meaningful macroeconomic implications: countries with more volatile labor markets exhibit higher asset accumulation and greater consumption inequality. Moreover, heterogeneity in labor market transitions produces different effects on how taxation influences savings and inequality. |
| Keywords: | Labor markets;Informality;Unemployment;Transitions |
| JEL: | E24 E26 J46 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14256 |
| By: | Ariel Akerman; Jacob Moscona; Heitor S. Pellegrina; Karthik Sastry |
| Abstract: | Can public R&D investment in developing countries drive productivity growth? We study this question in the context of Brazilian agriculture and the Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa), a public research corporation established in 1973 to develop locally suitable science and technology. First, we show that Embrapa redirected research toward prioritized staple crops and local ecological conditions, and increased research productivity, especially in remote and research-scarce regions. Second, exploiting the staggered rollout of research centers alongside heterogeneous local exposure to Embrapa’s technology development, we find that Embrapa significantly increased agricultural output, driven both by higher productivity and expanded input use. Combined with a model, these estimates imply that public R&D investment increased national agricultural productivity by 110% with a benefit-cost ratio of 17. The decentralized structure, in which research labs were spread across many ecological zones instead of in a single hub, explains a large share of these benefits. |
| JEL: | O13 O25 O3 O38 O4 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34213 |
| By: | Adamopoulos, Tasso |
| Abstract: | This working paper quantifies the role of current land quality and geographic conditions as well as projected future climate change for agricultural productivity differences across and within Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. It combines geospatial data on potential yields by crop and grid-cell, with a spatial accounting framework. If LAC countries produced their crops in the locations, they produce them with potential yields rather than actual, the 18 percent aggregate yield deficit relative to the richest countries would be reversed to an 18 percent surplus. While there are considerable cross-country and within-country heterogeneity, overall LAC countries have favorable natural land productivity. With improved input application and cultivation practices most LAC countries can double agricultural productivity, with substantial structural change implications. Climate change will reduce average yields in most LAC countries, but because of its heterogeneous effects across regions, there is more scope for yield gains from the spatial reallocation of production than under current conditions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultura, Ambiente, Cambio climático, Productividad, Recursos naturales, Sector productivo, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2520 |
| By: | Hill, Samuel; Khadan, Jeetendra; Selcuk, Peter Metin |
| Abstract: | Home to more than 1 billion people, the 39 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) classified as being in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) are plagued by instability and weak institutions. This hinders their ability to attain the robust, sustained economic growth needed for development. These economies exhibit lower per capita incomes, slower economic growth, and greater volatility than other developing countries. Conflicts impose a high human and economic toll on many economies classified as FCS. High-intensity conflicts are associated with a cumulative loss in per capita GDP of about 20 percent five years after their onset, relative to pre-conflict projections. FCS economies experienced far deeper contractions than other EMDEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and their recovery has been much weaker. About 70 percent of FCS economies are either at high risk of or already in debt distress—up from around 40 percent a decade ago. Employment growth continues to lag population growth. Tailored policies, reforms, and sustained global support are needed to expand opportunities for economic growth and job creation in FCS economies. Case studies from a diverse group of economies that were formerly afflicted by conflict in Africa, Asia, and Europe provide policy insights. |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11210 |
| By: | Rafael Araujo; Vitor Possebom; Gabriela Setti |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of environmental law enforcement on violence in the Brazilian Amazon. The introduction of the Real-Time Deforestation Detection System (DETER), which enabled the government to monitor deforestation in real time and issue fines for illegal clearing, significantly reduced homicides in the region. To identify causal effects, we exploit exogenous variation in satellite monitoring generated by cloud cover as an instrument for enforcement intensity. Our estimates imply that the expansion of state presence through DETER prevented approximately 1, 477 homicides per year, a 15% reduction in homicides. These results show that curbing deforestation produces important social co-benefits, strengthening state presence and reducing violence in regions marked by institutional fragility and resource conflict. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.06076 |
| By: | Wataru Kodama (International Fund for Agricultural Development); Dina Azhgaliyeva (Asian Development Bank); Peter Morgan (PJM Consulting) |
| Abstract: | Literature links food insecurity to adverse welfare outcomes, including the educational performance of children. This paper investigates whether food insecurity, exacerbated by recent food inflation, has hindered schoolchildren’s recovery from learning loss following coronavirus disease-related school closures. We examine this relationship using household data collected in 2023 from nine countries (Afghanistan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan)—severely affected by food inflation. Our data document high severity of food insecurity and limited perceived learning progress after schools reopened in many countries. Using a novel instrumental variable, the relative severity of food inflation compared to general inflation, we find a causal link between households’ food insecurity and delays in learning progress after schools reopened. This effect is particularly pronounced among schoolchildren in higher grades and those who experienced longer durations of school closure, suggesting that food insecurity hampered recovery from learning loss during the school closure. |
| Keywords: | food inflation;food security;learning progress;Central Asia and Caucasus;South Asia |
| JEL: | I32 I24 Q18 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021552 |
| By: | Luna, Luis Aguilar; Winkler, Deborah Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | Using a cross-section of more than 33, 000 services firms in 104 low- and middle-income countries from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys, this paper examines whether the female labor share premium of international firms relative to non-international firms in manufacturing also holds for services firms. Unlike the manufacturing sector, the paper finds a negative relationship between exporting and global value chain participation and the female labor share for services firms, while no relationship is found for importing or foreign ownership status, controlling for firm output, productivity, technology intensity, and fixed effects. The female labor share gap for exporters was larger before COVID-19, and the gap for global value chain participants is no longer significant after COVID-19. Controlling for sectoral relative wages between men and women does not change the findings in a smaller subsample of economies. Controlling for female top management and ownership reveals a female labor share gap for exporters, global value chain participants, and importers. Using an alternative estimator and data set confirms the female labor share gap in services firms. This may be attributed to the sectoral segregation between women and men, with women tending to pursue work opportunities in less skill- and export-intensive services sectors compared to men. |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11198 |