|
on Development |
| By: | Edwin Kenamu; Liesbeth Colen |
| Abstract: | In 2015, Southern Africa experienced a drought that affected approximately 30 million people across seven countries. Using a nationally representative household panel survey data set and a remotely sensed measure of drought intensity during the 2015-16 farming season, we rigorously estimate the short-term effects of the drought on food insecurity and child malnutrition in Malawi, and the mitigating effect of a humanitarian transfer programme. |
| Keywords: | Weather shock, Child nutrition, Food security, Malawi, Humanitarian assistance, Malnutrition |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-36 |
| By: | Karachiwalla, Naureen; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | Cash transfer programs are often effective at increasing household consumption in their early years, but impacts become more nuanced over time as the use of transfers varies. This paper examines the medium-term effects of Egypt’s f lagship cash transfer program, Takaful, on several measures of household wellbeing using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. Findings reveal no significant impacts on household consumption (total, food or non-food), but notable decreases in monthly wage income that are comparable in magnitude to the average monthly transfer. Employment patterns are suggestive of a decrease in hours worked in formal labour among men. There are positive effects on asset ownership, particularly productive assets, indicating a shift toward longer-term investments. Reductions in informal debt suggest improved financial health among beneficiaries and increases in enrollment in primary and preparatory school suggest increased human capital investment as well. These results underscore the potential of cash transfer programs to foster economic stability and investments in the future, even in the absence of significant immediate consumption effects. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; consumption; assets; investment; schools; health; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:168421 |
| By: | Dolislager, Michael; Belton, Ben; Reardon, Thomas; Awokuse, Titus; Ignowski, Liz; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Saravi, Babak; Tschirley, David |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to bring concepts from economic geography and human geography into closer dialogue and apply them to the analysis of food systems. We analyze temporal and spatial patterns of diet trans formation in Bangladesh using data from nationally representative household surveys. We conceptualize diet transformation as a ‘triangle’ comprised of three elements (food purchases, diet diversification, and processed food consumption), influenced by four conditioners (time, income, non-farm employment, and space). We find that: (1) Diets are converging over time and space. food purchases, non-staples, and processed foods occupy high shares of food consumption value, irrespective of urban or rural location. Controlling for income, rural landless households and households in urban areas have very similar diets. Households in ‘peripheral’ and ‘non-peripheral’ rural areas experience similar levels of diet transformation. (2) Food purchases and processed food consumption are conditioned mainly by non-farm employment (NFE). (3) Diet diversification is positively associated with income, but not with NFE or land ownership. We characterize the spatial convergence of diets as an outcome of ‘time-space compression’ (the accelerating volume and velocity of economic and social transactions resulting from advances in transport and communications technology), and the distinct form of peri-urbanization under conditions of extremely high population density found in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | diet; rural urban relations; food systems; household surveys; food prices; food consumption; off-farm employment; economic geography; Bangladesh; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprpp:159534 |
| By: | Facundo Alvaredo (PSE-WIL, LSE-III, and IIEP-UBA); François Bourguignon (Paris School of Economics and University of New York in Abu Dhabi); Francisco Ferreira (London School of Economics and IZA); Nora Lustig (Tulane University and Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5, 600 estimated Gini coefficients, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. We find that there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding inequality levels for the same country/year combinations. Differences in inequality levels estimated from household surveys alone are present but they derive from differences in the construction of the welfare indicator, the unit of analysis, or the treatment of the data. With harmonized household surveys, the discrepancies are quite small. The range, however, expands significantly when, to correct for undercoverage and underreporting especially at the top of the distribution, inequality estimates come from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data. The range increases even further when survey-based income aggregates are scaled to achieve consistency not only with tax registries but with National Accounts. Since no single method to correct for underreporting at the top is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. Although the evidence roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for the last fifty years. The main feature is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to and often during the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st century, at least until around 2015, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This pattern is broadly robust but features considerable variation in timing and magnitude depending on the country. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, measurement, Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | D31 D63 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:719 |
| By: | Sébastien Fontenay; Paula Eugenia Gobbi; Marc Goñi |
| Abstract: | Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa is the highest in the world. We showcase a driver of this exceptionally high fertility which has been largely overlooked by demographers and economists: inheritance customs. We develop a theory of inheritance under subsistence agriculture, where households face economic incentives to limit fertility to avoid dividing land into inefficiently small parcels. Consequently, fertility is higher where inheritance is transmitted to a single heir (impartible) than where it is divided equally among all children (partible). We test this prediction by linking deep-rooted inheritance customs for more than 800 ethnic groups with modern demographic surveys covering 24 countries. Exploiting ancestral borders in a spatial Regression Discontinuity Design, we show that belonging to an ethnic group with impartible inheritance increases fertility by around one child per woman and that fertility differences are larger in lands subject to indivisibilities than in lands suited for cultivating labor-intensive crops. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Inheritance, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/390703 |
| By: | Ana Garcia-Hernandez; Nishith Prakash; Janina Isabel Steinert |
| Abstract: | This study examines the five-year impacts of a bicycle distribution program for adolescent girls in rural Zambia, implemented across 91 schools as part of a randomized controlled trial. While the program increased girls’ self-reported empowerment and reduced experiences of domestic and intimate partner violence, it also led to higher rates of early marriage and teenage pregnancy - outcomes that run counter to the program’s objectives. We explore mechanisms behind this paradox, including improved socioeconomic status and increased receipt of bride prices, which may reflect girls’ higher perceived value in the marriage market. These findings suggest that girls may have exercised greater agency by making strategic decisions about marriage and childbearing. Our results underscore the complex interplay between empowerment, economic mobility, and local norms, and highlight the importance of accounting for potential unintended consequences when designing gender-focused development interventions. |
| Keywords: | bicycles, female empowerment, marriage, fertility, domestic violence, intimate partner violence, Zambia, RCT |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 O10 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11889 |
| By: | Chistophe Muller (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE); Nouréini Sayouti Souleymane (Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA)) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural policies in poor rural developing countries have the potential to improve both household nutrition and agricultural income. But can these policy consequences be reconciled? This is not obvious because many policies are deficient. Moreover, in villages, mismatches have been observed between nutrition and profit indicators. However, incomes raised by such policies may generate nutrition improvement. In Niger, a major program directed to agro-pastoralists is the 3N Initiative. Do these policies enhance households’ agricultural profit and dietary intakes? And if so, is it because of an income effect, or through alternative channels? Using an agropastoral survey conducted in 2016 Niger, we find that livestock extension services that reduce calorie intake while improving diet diversity operate mostly through an increased household’s pastoral profit. In contrast, veterinary services and low-cost livestock feed programs improve diet diversity, but do not affect profit and calories. Because livestock extension services foster households specializing in cattle and sheep rearing and sometimes switching to transhumance, they restrict their access to energy-dense cereals. This generate a perverse consequence on caloric intakes, despite rising animal calories. Therefore, nutritional policy-makers should better account for agro-pastoralist access to cereal markets and monitor whether policies generate differential incentives, especially through profit, for specific specialization or lifestyle. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2508 |
| By: | Abdu, Aishat; Malapit, Hazel J.; Go, Ara |
| Abstract: | Agricultural programs targeting women may increase women’s work burdens and shift the distribution of work between productive and reproductive tasks. Complementary information on women’s sense of control over their time highlights additional benefits of agricultural programs beyond changes in women’s workloads. Despite program interventions, gender norms often persist, affecting how communities perceive work intensity and division of responsibilities between men and women. The relationship between women’s time use and nutrition is complex and interacts with mediating factors, requiring a multifaceted approach to program design and evaluation. Evidence linking time use data to nonfarm work is lacking, highlighting the need to leverage WEAI time use data to fill this critical gap. |
| Keywords: | women; agriculture; gender; female labour; division of labour |
| Date: | 2025–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:anress:174463 |
| By: | Ana Garcia-Hernandez (J-PAL Europe, and Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI)); Nishith Prakash (Northeastern University, CESifo, IZA, GLO, HiCN, and CReAM); Janina Isabel Steinert (Technical University of Munich and Munich Center for Health Economics and Policy) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the five-year impacts of a bicycle distribution program for adolescent girls in rural Zambia, implemented across 91 schools as part of a randomized controlled trial. While the program increased girls’ self-reported empowerment and reduced experiences of domestic and intimate partner violence, it also led to higher rates of early marriage and teenage pregnancy—outcomes that run counter to the program’s objectives. We explore mechanisms behind this paradox, including improved socioeconomic status and increased receipt of bride prices, which may reflect girls’ higher perceived value in the marriage market. These findings suggest that girls may have exercised greater agency by making strategic decisions about marriage and childbearing. Our results underscore the complex interplay between empowerment, economic mobility, and local norms, and highlight the importance of accounting for potential unintended consequences when designing gender-focused development interventions. |
| Keywords: | Bicycles, Female Empowerment, Marriage, Fertility, Domestic Violence, Intimate Partner Violence, Zambia, RCT |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 O10 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:41 |
| By: | Lucia Corno (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Eliana La Ferrara; Alessandra Voena |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the historical origins of female genital cutting (FGC). We test the historical hypothesis that FGC is associated with the Red Sea route of the African slave trade, where women were typically sold as concubines in the Middle East and infibulation was used as a means to preserve virginity. Using individual-level data from 28 African countries combined with historical records of Red Sea slave shipments from 1400 to 1900, we find that women from ethnic groups whose ancestors experienced greater exposure to the Red Sea slave trade are more likely to undergo infibulation or circumcision today. They are also more inclined to support the continuation of this practice. Our findings are robust to instrumenting Red Sea slave exports with the distance to the nearest port used for this route. We also leverage a dataset on oral traditions (Folklore) to show that greater exposure to the Red Sea slave trade correlates with a stronger association between infibulation and the cultural values of chastity and purity, which may have facilitated the diffusion of infibulation among local populations. |
| Keywords: | FGC, FGM, social norms, slave trade, Africa. |
| JEL: | O10 I11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def138 |
| By: | Lorenzo Aldeco Leo; Matteo Ghilardi; Hugo Tuesta |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how fluctuations in crime rates influence labor market outcomes in Mexico. Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates. Men are more likely to exit the labor market due to reduced demand for their labor, while women increasingly join the workforce, mainly in the informal sector, to offset this decline. This outcome is largely driven by the presence of drug trafficking organizations, which primarily employ men in their operations. Escalating violence also increases labor mobility, leading to higher job separations, particularly among women seeking safer employment. Our results highlight that while increasing crime in the form of homicides may not induce large changes in the aggregate level of employment, there is evidence of labor reallocation across and within sectors. This suggests an increase in labor market misallocation. |
| Keywords: | Crime; Labor Markets; Gender; Mexico. |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/100 |
| By: | Mr. Edward R Gemayel; Mr. Samuele Rosa; Vidhi Maheshwari; Christoph Ungerer; Peter Lindner |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces growing climate vulnerability, with rising temperatures and extreme weather threatening agriculture, food security, and economic growth. These challenges worsen poverty, fiscal constraints, and limited human capital investment. To address these risks, SSA countries need to scale up green investments while ensuring debt sustainability. Given insufficient traditional public financing, a mix of grants, concessional debt, and private investments is crucial. This paper presents survey results on climate finance in SSA and introduces the Climate Finance Preparedness Index (CFPI) to assess countries' readiness for green financing, highlighting the need for policy reforms, institutional strengthening, and innovative financial products. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); Climate change adaptation; Climate financing; Mitigation and resilience; Public financial management (PFM) |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/099 |
| By: | Ghosh, Arkadev; Mitra, Aruni; Mukherji, Ronit |
| Abstract: | We study how shifts in political power affect economic sentiment and consumption behavior in identity-polarized settings. Using panel data from more than 178, 000 Indian households, we find that sentiment about personal finances - but not the national economy - predicts household expenditure, even after controlling for income growth. Exploiting close elections, we find that Muslim households become more pessimistic after electoral victories by the Hindu nationalist party, especially about national conditions. However, this divergence in sentiment is not associated with corresponding differences in spending. A simple Bayesian learning model explains this disconnect through limited transmission from macro beliefs to personal expectations. |
| Keywords: | sentiment, consumption, close elections, identity politics |
| JEL: | C36 D72 D83 E20 E66 |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124881 |
| By: | Kirstin Munro (Department of Economics, New School For Social Research, USA) |
| Abstract: | A body of literature in conventional labor economics contends with multiple endogeneity concerns inexamining the impact of purportedly labor-saving home appliances on married women’s labor force participation. However, this literature largely overlooks insights from feminist research. Using 1991-2010 microdata for Brazil, I question the way earlier studies have interpreted the relationship between household appliance ownership and female labor force participation. My results for Brazil are similar in magnitude to those using 1960-1970 microdata for the United States. However, I obtain this same result when televisions — not straightforwardly a “labor-saving appliance” — are substituted for clothes washing machines in the model. A result with a stronger causal interpretation, relying on variations in the proportion of women employed in household services, suggests a negative relationship between washing machines and women’s labor force participation. I conclude there is not sufficient evidence to claim home appliances cause increases in married women’s labor force participation. |
| Keywords: | Women’s labor force participation, household technology, domestic labor, Brazil |
| JEL: | B54 D13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2509 |
| By: | Herberto Rodríguez (Center for Economic Intelligence and Research, UPAEP México, Mexico); Víctor Giménez (Department of Business, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain; IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Javier Ordoñez |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the efficiency and productivity of Mexican state universities from 1989 to 2017, a period marked by significant reforms in higher education funding mechanisms. Using a methodological approach that combines direct and indirect (budget-constrained) sequential technology frontiers, we construct a Malmquist productivity index that decomposes efficiency into four components: direct technical efficiency change, direct scale efficiency, input allocative efficiency, and indirect frontier shift. This quadripartite decomposition allows us to calculate the GAIN function, measuring the additional efficiency that universities could achieve through better resource allocation within existing budget constraints. Our analysis of 34 public state universities reveals considerable heterogeneity in efficiency patterns, with productivity improvements primarily driven by technological advancement (frontier shifts) rather than better resource allocation. By 2017, universities could potentially improve their efficiency by 52% through optimized resource allocation alone, without requiring additional funding. Cluster analysis identifies distinct strategic groups among universities, with varying efficiency profiles and improvement opportunities. Our findings suggest that while Subject to Performance Budget (STP) programs introduced in the 1990s contributed to overall efficiency improvements, they have not necessarily led to better resource allocation decisions, as evidenced by increasing bureaucratization and staff-to-faculty ratios. These results have important implications for higher education funding policies in developing economies, suggesting that significant performance improvements could be achieved through better allocation decisions even within existing budgetary constraints. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education, Efficiency, GAIN Function, Mexico |
| JEL: | I21 H52 C14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2025/04 |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle; Mekonnen, Daniel; Chege, Christine |
| Abstract: | In late 2023, a unique survey was fielded in Ethiopia to study micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) selling food directly to consumers in two locations in Ethiopia (a woreda of Addis Ababa, and Butajira). The survey was unique as it combines a listing exercise, which attempted to list all businesses selling food directly to customers within a specific area, and a business-oriented survey, which enumerated information about management characteristics, the use of healthy foods, nutritional awareness, and the constraints businesses might face in selling more healthy foods. We find that businesses rarely follow good business practices, they have poor access to capital, and supply challenges and variable quality are major constraints to expanding their businesses. Finally, we find many vendors are not aware of nutritional content of specific foods they might sell. From the business perspective, business trainings could help vendors become better businesses, but helping deal with supply challenges earlier in the value chain could also allow them to sell more, with consistently higher quality. |
| Keywords: | enterprises; food environment; nutrition; surveys; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprpp:155237 |
| By: | Giulia Greco (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Selim Gulesci (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Pallavi Prabhakar (BRAC Institute of Governance and Development); Munshi Sulaiman (BRAC Institute of Governance and Development) |
| Abstract: | We present evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda where married women were randomly provided unconditional cash transfers. Among treated women, we randomized the modality of payment (in cash or mobile money) and whether the beneficiary's spouse was informed about the transfer or not. We find that using mobile money for cash transfers is more effective in improving women’s economic independence and decision-making power. In particular, women in the mobile money treatments have higher individual labor income and more of a say in household decisions. On the other hand, cash-based transfers are more effective in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV), especially when both partners are informed. This highlights a trade-off between improving the effectiveness of cash transfers on women’s economic empowerment versus reducing IPV. While providing cash transfers digitally is more effective in improving women's control over resources, this may lower their effectiveness in addressing IPV. |
| Keywords: | Digital finance, cash transfers, women's empowerment, domestic violence, privacy |
| JEL: | C93 D10 D82 J12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0425 |
| By: | Yazan Al-Karablieh; José Marzluf; Hector Perez-Saiz; Azzam Santosa; Mr. Fabian Valencia |
| Abstract: | We construct a unique dataset by collecting macro-financial commitments data using textual analysis of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFPs), a document outlining, inter-alia, policy commitments by member countries, in the context of an IMF-supported program. We combine this data with information on structural conditionality. Using a staggered difference-in-differences methodology, we show that IMF-supported programs with macro-financial policy commitments are followed by periods of lower non-performing loans and in some cases lower credit-to-GDP ratios, relative to IMF-supported programs without macro-financial commitments, mostly for the post global financial crisis (GFC) period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The NPL-to-loans ratio does not seem to decrease as a result of credit expansion. The results point to stronger and more abrupt declines in credit-to-GDP following ex-post macro-financial policies, those implemented after a crisis occurs (e.g., restructuring), and milder and more gradual declines following ex-ante policies, those implemented before risks materialize (e.g., regulatory requirements). The responses are also larger when countries have positive credit gaps at the start of the program than when credit gaps are negative. These results point to the importance of considering the country’s position in the credit cycle in program design and in addressing vulnerabilities preemptively to reduce the need for abrupt corrections when risks materialize. Finally, macro-financial policies targeting financial inclusion tend to increase credit-to-GDP ratios in low credit-to-GDP program countries. |
| Keywords: | Textual analysis; non-performing loans; credit growth; IMF-supported programs; macro-financial policies |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/097 |
| By: | Rafael de la Vega |
| Abstract: | Inequality at the top is on the rise, and labour income is a progressively larger contributor to concentration at the top. This paper investigates top earnings inequality in South Africa from a sectoral and firm-level perspective, using matched employer-employee administrative data. We also propose a method for decomposing top shares in within-groups and between-groups components. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, Top incomes, Earnings inequality, Inequality decomposition, Administrative data |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-39 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Siddig, Khalid; Abushama, Hala; Intini, Vito; AlAzzawi, Shireen; Adam, Saef Alnasr; Terefe, Fekadu; Fallaha, Hasan; Merouani, Walid; Durrani, Akbar; Nohra, Nada |
| Abstract: | Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today. "The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households" study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100, 000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3, 000 households. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic impact; armed conflicts; urban areas; households; surveys; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:159599 |