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on Development |
| By: | Mark S. Manger (University of Toronto); David Mihalyi (World Bank and Kiel Institute); Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute (International Economics) and CEPR,); Niccolò Rescia (Global Sovereign Advisory and Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute and CEPR); Ka Lok Wong (N Economic Commission for Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africaâs domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government auction reports and bond prospectuses. The database covers over 50, 000 individual government loans and securities issued by 54 African countries between 2000 and 2024, amounting to a total of USD 6.3 trillion in debt. For each instrument, it provides harmonized micro-level information on currency, maturity, interest rates, instrument type, and creditor. The data reveal the growing dominance of domestic debt in Africa â albeit with substantial cross-country variation. Four stylized facts stand out: (i) the rapid expansion of domestic debt markets, especially in middle-income countries; (ii) the wide dispersion in borrowing costs and real interest rates; (iii) large cross-country differences in maturity structures and associated rollover risks; and (iv) a rising debt-service burden, particularly due to international bonds. Generally, this project shows that debt transparency is both feasible and valuable, even in data-scarce environments. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Borrowing; Public Debt; Development Finance; Domestic Markets; Africa |
| JEL: | F34 H63 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp15-2025 |
| By: | Congdon Fors, Heather (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Durevall, Dick (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Isaksson, Ann-Sofie (The Institute for Futures Studies); Lindskog, Annika (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | Teenage childbearing has serious consequences for young mothers, their children, and society. This study estimates the impact of foreign aid projects on teenage fertility in Malawi. We combine georeferenced data on aid projects from 1998–2016 with individual-level fertility data. Identification relies on spatial and temporal variation in aid exposure and survey timing, with controls for project placement and teenage childbearing among older women not exposed to the intervention. Results show that aid to sexual and reproductive health, HIV/AIDS, and education significantly reduce teenage fertility, while other aid types have limited effects. Women who were exposed to relevant aid while of critical age were 15-25 percent less likely to have given birth as teenagers. Likely mediators include increased time in school, delayed entry into relationships, and postponed marriage. |
| Keywords: | Teenage fertility; Early childbearing; Foreign aid; Malawi |
| JEL: | F35 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0858 |
| By: | Samuele Centorrino; Antonia Diakantoni; Alexander Keck; Michele Ruta; Monika Sztajerowska; Yuting Wei |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis. Using a Dynamic Factor Model on comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories, we document a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies. The TPA Index also identifies cyclical episodes of heightened activity and reveals interconnections between different types of measures. We are also able to identify systematic differences in trade policy deployment among groups of economies. Additionally, we employ MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions with high-frequency data to develop nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity, enabling real-time identification of potential policy shifts. These results contribute to the trade policy measurement literature and offer a tool for monitoring global trade policy developments in real time. |
| Keywords: | Trade Policy; Dynamic Factor Models; Nowcasting |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/220 |
| By: | BRYSON, Alex; TANAKA, Mari |
| Abstract: | The effects of trade unions on firm performance are theoretically ambiguous. The sizable empirical literature on their effects is almost exclusively confined to developed countries, particularly those in North America and Europe. We contribute to the literature by estimating union effects on firm performance in about 40, 000 firms in 77 developing countries between 2002 and 2011. In doing so, we exploit standardized firm level data collected by the World Bank. We find positive partial correlations between unionization and firm labor productivity and wages, especially in lower-income countries. These positive effects persist when we instrument for union presence, consistent with recent evidence of union positive effects on productivity and wages in western industrialized countries. |
| Keywords: | trade unions, productivity, wages, developing countries, enterprise data, union formation |
| JEL: | J51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:774 |
| By: | Richard Blundell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Mariano Bosch (Inter-American Development Bank); Nora Lustig (Tulane University); Marcela Melendez (World Bank) |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/49 |
| By: | Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the constraints within Papua New Guinea's vegetable sector, drawing on large scale household surveys, extensive qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, and Large Language Model (LLM) methods. Our survey data reveal that vegetable production is ubiquitous, with almost all households surveyed (91%) growing at least one vegetable. Indigenous varieties, such as leafy greens (96%) and fresh beans (69%), are widely cultivated across regions, while high-value vegetables like onion (17%) and tomato (19%) show more regional concentration. Over half (53%) of PNG vegetable farmers sell their produce, with farmers located in the nonseasonal highlands agro-ecological area leading in market participation (66%), contributing to an overall commercialization rate of 24% (defined as the share of pro duction sold). However, modern input use, particularly improved seed adoption, significantly lags behind output commercialization in all agroecological zones except the islands survey areas. The quantitative analysis, using the PNG Rural Household Survey 2023, and the qualitative analysis, drawing from both manual review and LLM-assisted processing of in-depth interview notes, consistently identify poor feeder roads as critical bottlenecks for every stakeholder across PNG's vegetable value chain. Beyond transportation, these interviews repeatedly highlighted persistent seed supply shortages and high seed costs as significant hurdles. Since PNG depends on imported vegetable seeds, several structural and procedural barriers contribute to these shortages. These include potentially arduous quarantine procedures, limited foreign exchange for seed imports, and cumbersome permit processes, often leaving major distributors with insufficient stock. These reported bottlenecks may contribute to the low improved seed adoption and use reflected in the household survey analysis. |
| Keywords: | vegetables; large language models; commercialization; household surveys; artificial intelligence; Papua New Guinea; Melanesia; Oceania; Asia |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:175558 |
| By: | Pierre E. Biscaye; |
| Abstract: | Can transitory economic shocks affect long-term violent conflict risk? This paper studies this question using data on con ict events and desert locust swarm exposure across 0.25◦ grid cells in Africa and the Arabian peninsula from 1997-2018. A staggered event study approach shows that swarm exposure increases the average annual probability of any violent conflict in a cell by 1.8 percentage points (64%) in subsequent years. Effects are driven by initial agricultural destruction: exposure to swarms in nonagricultural areas or outside the main crop growing season has no impact. Agricultural activity (but not average productivity) falls following swarm exposure, indicating persistent indirect economic effects which may reduce opportunity costs of fighting. The largest effects of swarms on con ict occur with a 7 year lag and there are no effects in the year of exposure, inconsistent with predictions based on changes in opportunity costs of fighting alone. Impacts of past exposure are concentrated in periods of social/political disruptions driven by other proximate causes (e.g., the Arab Spring, civil war). This creates the delay in the largest impacts of swarm exposure, and aligns with models of civil conflict emphasizing the role of grievances in conflict onset. Patterns of long-term impacts on conflict and heterogeneity by local unrest are similar for exposure to droughts, indicating the mechanisms are not specific to locust swarms. These results add motivation for policies mitigating the risk of agricultural shocks and promoting household resilience and recovery. |
| Keywords: | africa, agriculture, conflict, desert locusts, natural disasters |
| JEL: | D74 J16 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:436 |
| By: | Vinicius Schuabb; Pedro Chaves Maia; Valdemar Pinho Neto; Sergio Guimarães; Paulo Tafner |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how social policy shapes mobility responses to extreme weather events. We study Brazil's conditional cash transfer programme, Bolsa Família, and its impact on the relocation decisions of vulnerable households exposed to extreme rainfall. We assemble a novel dataset linking georeferenced household and firm records to high-resolution precipitation data, climate vulnerability maps, and federally recognized disaster reports, covering 858 municipalities from 2015 to 2020. |
| Keywords: | Weather shock, Conditional cash transfers, Resilience, Labour market |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-74 |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; Hirvonen, Kalle |
| Abstract: | Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the food environment in many low- and middle-income countries. But there is little systematic knowledge about the opportunities they have and constraints they face in trying to grow their businesses. To contribute to building this knowledge base, we draw upon linked household–enterprise surveys collected in two districts in Ethiopia in 2023. To learn about the constraints faced by these enterprises, we examine differences in organizational characteristics and business practices by outlet type, location, and manager gender and education among MSMEs that sell food. The results suggest that while there are clear availability constraints for specific types of foods, there are some strategies that could help MSMEs that retail healthy foods increase sales. If policymakers or others are interested in supporting sales through the food environment, interventions such as business training, service access, and capacity building on nutrition would best fit their needs. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; enterprises; food environment; healthy diets; households; nutrition; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:177229 |
| By: | Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Abstract: | Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing important demand and supply-side barriers to adoption. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized control trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that all variants of digital training significantly increased the uptake and utilization of digital tools by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 26 percentage points. The interventions also significantly enhanced farmer trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights for designing cost effective and scalable interventions to build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers. |
| Keywords: | digital literacy; training; digital agriculture; smallholders; technology adoption; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:176520 |
| By: | Galle, Johannes (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Oliveira, Rodrigo (UNU-WIDER); Overbeck, Daniel (National University of Singapore); Riedel, Nadine (University of Münster); Severnini, Edson (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first comprehensive evidence on how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation. Using detailed administrative data, we study the announcement and implementation of South Africa’s 2019 carbon tax—a potential trailblazer for other developing countries with limited state capacity amid the global expansion of carbon pricing. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes might hinder growth or employment, we find no negative effects on firm performance or jobs. Firms facing higher effective tax rates increased activity following the tax’s announcement, four years before implementation, likely reflecting the resolution of regulatory uncertainty and efforts to mitigate stranded asset costs. While we find no measurable reduction in emissions—likely due to this anticipatory behavior—our results suggest that carbon taxation can be implemented without harming economic outcomes, even in the short term and in low- and middle-income settings. |
| Keywords: | firm performance, carbon tax, carbon pricing, employment outcomes |
| JEL: | H23 Q52 Q58 O13 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18212 |
| By: | Sidahmed, Anwar; Mohamed, Shima |
| Abstract: | Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and the collapse of essential services. As with agricultural production in rural communities across Sudan, urban and peri-urban farming systems in Greater Khartoum, the area around the capital city, have also been harmed by the conflict. An integrated assessment of the impact of conflict on crop production in Greater Khartoum was conducted using recent satellite imagery from 2024/25 winter season (October 2024 to March 2025), along with household-level data from the 2024 IFPRI Smallholder Farmers Survey covering the 2023/24 winter season (October 2023 to March 2024). Key findings from the assessment include: Decline in cropping activities: Analysis of satellite imagery showed clear evidence of a decline in cropping activities between December 2022 and December 2024. Land use analysis showed a 22 percent reduction in total cultivated area over this period. Notably, land under center-pivot irrigation declined by 87 percent. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis showed a 36 percent decline in vegetated land, indicating both reduced cultivation and plant cover. Widespread disruption to farming: Thirty-six percent of the farmers surveyed in Khartoum state reported not cultivating any crops in the 2023/24 winter season primarily because of conflict-related challenges that they could not overcome. Of those that did farm, over three-quarters reported that the conflict had disrupted their agricultural activities. Shifts in crop selection and agricultural input use: Vegetables and fruits are now the most commonly grown crops, followed by fodder and beans. Less than one-quarter of farmers now use improved seeds, largely due to conflict-related input shortages. However, despite the conflict, access to fertilizer markets has been maintained— 87 percent of farmers reported that they continue to use fertilizer. Localized resilience: Some areas of Greater Khartoum, particularly Karari locality, have maintained relatively high levels of cultivation, reflecting localized resilience and reasonable safety and access to agricultural landholdings. By combining spatial and socioeconomic data, the study highlights the complex and multidimensional nature of agricultural disruption in conflict-affected areas, like Greater Khartoum. Several policy responses and other actions needed for recovery and to strengthen the resilience of affected farmers are suggested by the study findings: Promote resilient and inclusive farming systems and agricultural value chains. Restore agricultural infrastructure and input supply chains. Improve farmer mobility and market access. Provide emergency assistance and recovery packages to farmers. Strengthen agricultural monitoring systems. |
| Keywords: | armed conflicts; capacity development; crop production; farming; satellite imagery; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:176773 |
| By: | Luisito Bertinelli (Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg); Evie Graus (Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg); Jean-François Maystadt (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Silvia Peracchi (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of road access on child health in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2012 by combining geolocated data on child anthropometric outcomes with spatial data on road networks. To address endogeneity, we employ an instrumental variable approach based on the inconsequential units framework, constructing hypothetical road networks that connect historical cities and active mines. Our results show that closer proximity to paved roads significantly improves child health. The main mechanisms operate through improved healthcare access and utilization, higher household wealth, early signs of structural transformation, and cropland expansion. We find no evidence that these gains are offset by adverse environmental or epidemiological effects of improved road access. Overall, the findings underscore the role of road infrastructure in fostering development across Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | roads, Sub-Saharan Africa, child health, causal analysis |
| JEL: | O15 I15 O18 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2025017 |
| By: | Ghassan Baliki; Wolfgang Stojetz; Tilman Brück; Mekdim D. Regassa; Damir Esenaliev; Milena Tzvetkova; Monika Schreiner |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused extensive food insecurity in low-income countries. However, most studies rely on aggregate-level exposure measures, overlooking individual-level heterogeneity and introducing measurement errors that limit causal inference. To overcome these gaps, we examine the impact of COVID-19 exposure on food security in four African countries — Uganda, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, and Mozambique - using large-scale phone survey data collected throughout 2021. We introduce a novel micro-level measure of "COVID-19 exposure" and employ a heteroskedasticity-based IV method to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns. We find that one in two households faced moderate-to-severe food insecurity during this period, with particularly pronounced impacts among households characterized by large family sizes, limited access to public services, fewer assets, and with female, younger, and less educated household heads. Our analysis identifies significant declines in household income in COVID-19 exposed areas as primary drivers of worsened food insecurity. Moreover, vulnerable households often lacked financial support from governments, leading them to adopt harmful coping strategies. Our analysis offers nuanced insights into the mechanisms linking individual pandemic exposure to food insecurity and provides valuable implications for designing targeted policy interventions to protect vulnerable households in low- and middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | africa, countermeasures, covid-19, food security, income shocks |
| JEL: | I18 O15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:439 |
| By: | Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12, 000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa; conflicts; migration; food security; health; displacement; livelihoods; market access |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:23 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu S.; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes. |
| Keywords: | Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa; conflicts; employment; income; remittances; food security; food consumption |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:21 |
| By: | Hirvonen, Kalle; Abate, Gashaw T.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Hoddinott, John F.; Leight, Jessica; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) – one of the largest social protection programs in Africa – has improved food security and strengthened recovery from shocks, yet it has achieved limited progress in raising incomes or diversifying livelihoods. In response, policymakers have layered graduation models onto the PSNP to promote sustainable self-reliance. This note synthesizes evaluation evidence from NGO- and government-led initiatives. NGO-led intensive, high-cost models increased assets and incomes in the short to medium term but rarely enabled households to exit the program. NGO-led lighter-touch approaches improved resilience but delivered minimal gains in overall well-being. Government-led efforts have faced persistent delivery challenges, including overstretched systems, weak credit access, and limited market linkages. Broader structural constraints, such as shrinking landholdings, scarce nonfarm opportunities, and recurrent drought and other shocks, further undermine the promise of graduation programming in this context. The review highlights six policy lessons on design, financing, and integration with broader development strategies to shape more effective approaches going forward. |
| Keywords: | food security; livelihoods; poverty; social protection; modelling; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:176897 |