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on Development |
| By: | Nicola Francescutto |
| Abstract: | I combine multiple rounds of geo-coded household survey data with a globally gridded climate dataset to quantify the impact of heat exposure on child disease incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. I construct hour-degree bins of temperature exposure and find that 10 additional hours of exposure to temperatures between 30–35°C in the 14 days preceding the interview increase the probability of fever, diarrhea, and acute respiratory infection by 1.5, 3.0, and 3.5 percentage points, respectively. The effects of heat are more pronounced in urban areas: exposure in the 30–35°C range raises the incidence of fever and acute respiratory infection by an additional 1.0 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, compared to rural settings. Finally, I further find that the effects are stronger among children of less-educated mothers. These findings show the health risks posed by heat exposure in sub-Saharan Africa, and highlight the unequal burden faced by vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Temperature, West Africa, Child diseases |
| JEL: | I15 O10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-06 |
| By: | Cortés, Darwin; Gallegos, Andrés; Pérez Pérez, Jorge |
| Abstract: | We analyze the e ect of adverse health shocks on households' expenditure shares in different good categories using a xed-e ects approach and a structural approach based on microeconomic theory. We nd that, on average, households substitute health and food expenditure in response to adverse health shocks. Our estimates unveil substantial heterogeneity in this trade-o mediated by access to social protection, job contract type, and urban or rural location. Households from rural areas -where household heads are more likely to hold informal jobs and lack access to safety nets- engage in more substitution of food expenditure for health expenditure than others. Our ndings suggest that access to formal employment and a higher quality of local institutions can help mitigate the negative consequences of health shocks for households. |
| Keywords: | health shocks, household expenditure, informal labor, urban-rural |
| JEL: | D12 I15 J46 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rie:riecdt:114 |
| By: | Stojetz, Wolfgang (ISDC - International Security and Development Center); Azzarri, Carlo (International Food Policy Research Institute); Mane, Erdgin (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Brück, Tilman (IGZ, HU Berlin & ISDC) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence on the impacts of armed conflict and climate change on individual labor intensity. Based on pooled labor force survey, climate, and conflict event data from 21 African countries, we document that climate change and armed conflict can create a polycrisis: the negative impacts of extreme climate events on labor intensity in and outside of agriculture are more severe in conflict environments. This interaction effect, driven by heat waves and floods, is concentrated among young people, and it is the result of violent conflict presence before a climate event occurs, not of conflict events that occur at the same time as the climate event. In addition, our results suggest that conflict contributes to gender-specific shifts in labor allocation in response to climate events exacerbating women’s work burden. Our findings emphasize the importance of concerted, evidence-based policies to tackle climate-conflict polycrises, taking into account the specific vulnerabilities shaped by individuals’ gender and age. |
| Keywords: | gender, employment, conflict, climate, agrifood systems, agriculture, Africa, polycrisis, youth |
| JEL: | D74 J16 J22 O12 Q10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17968 |
| By: | Miranda Montero, Juan Jose; Contreras, Cesar |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of higher temperatures on learning outcomes in Peru. The results suggest that 1 degree above 20°C is equivalent to 7 and 6 percent of a standard deviation of what a student learns in a year for math and reading tests, respectively. These results hold true when the main specification is changed, splitting the sample, collapsing the data at school level, and using other climate specifications. The paper aims to improve understanding of how to deal with the impacts of climate change on learning outcomes in developing countries. The evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer programs can mitigate the negative effects of higher temperatures on students’ learning outcomes in math and reading. |
| Date: | 2025–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11171 |
| By: | Ben Bih, Karima; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Desjonqueres, Chloe Genevieve Helene; Masson, Solene |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of conflicts on flood-affected households in Nigeria, utilizing a balanced panel dataset derived from the Living Standards Measurement Survey data collected in 2012, 2015, and 2018, and geo-spatial conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The analysis employs difference-in-difference regressions to examine whether conflicts have a measurable effect on households and whether this effect is intensified when considering flood exposure. The study focuses on households' consumption expenditure outcomes, comparing conflict-affected and non-conflict-affected households, and further narrows down to flood-affected households. The results indicate that conflict-affected households experience lower consumption expenditure compared to non-conflict-affected households, with the adverse effects being significantly more pronounced for those also affected by floods. The study also investigates these effects on households’ income, albeit with a smaller sample. Similar findings, although less robust, were noted when analyzing income trends. The findings underscore the compounded vulnerabilities faced by households in conflict and flood-prone areas, highlighting the need for integrated policy interventions to address the compounded impacts of these shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11167 |
| By: | Jaramillo-Echeverri, Juliana |
| Abstract: | Across the world educated women tend to have fewer children than their less-educated peers. This paper provides new stylised facts about the long-run relationship between women’s education and fertility at both the national and individual levels. I focus on Colombia, a country that experienced both a rapid fertility decline and fast expansion of education in the mid-20th century and I use data from the censuses of 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005 and 2018. The findings caution that the relationship between fertility and women’s education is not always monotonic and this relationship changes significantly depending on the aggregation of the data. At the individual level, the relationship between education and fertility holds strongly and education increases the probability of remaining childless, reduces the total number of children and the likelihood of having a birth at a younger and older age, suggesting a strong trade-off between education and fertility. Peer effects, such as the percentage of peers with secondary education, are ruled out, which suggests that the externalities of education had a moderate effect on uneducated women. On the other hand, at the national level, the fertility decline cannot be explained by education as fertility has fallen continuously in all educational groups since 1965.Across the world educated women tend to have fewer children than their less-educated peers. This paper provides new stylised facts about the long-run relationship between women’s education and fertility at both the national and individual levels. I focus on Colombia, a country that experienced both a rapid fertility decline and fast expansion of education in the mid-20th century and I use data from the censuses of 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005 and 2018. The findings caution that the relationship between fertility and women’s education is not always monotonic and this relationship changes significantly depending on the aggregation of the data. At the individual level, the relationship between education and fertility holds strongly and education increases the probability of remaining childless, reduces the total number of children and the likelihood of having a birth at a younger and older age, suggesting a strong trade-off between education and fertility. Peer effects, such as the percentage of peers with secondary education, are ruled out, which suggests that the externalities of education had a moderate effect on uneducated women. On the other hand, at the national level, the fertility decline cannot be explained by education as fertility has fallen continuously in all educational groups since 1965. |
| Keywords: | fertility, education, Colombia, census data |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rie:riecdt:116 |
| By: | Fuchs, Andreas; Siewers, Samuel |
| Abstract: | Timely assistance is a precondition for effective emergency relief in the aftermath of natural disasters. This paper shows that donor countries take faster aid decisions if they have stronger strategic interests at stake. We analyze a trilateral panel (donor, donor, recipient) of daily humanitarian aid decisions of 43 donor countries following 516 fast-onset natural disasters between 2000 and 2022. Identification relies on daily variation in donor responses and a series of multidimensional fixed effects. Our analysis reveals a bandwagon effect as donors follow their peers' commitments. This is largely explained by trade competition: the more donors compete over export and import markets, the faster they react to each other. The results are driven by government-to-government aid and underscore the importance of recipient-specific lead donors, who are natural first movers. These findings suggest that commercial competition can distort emergency relief and highlight that strategic interests shape even ostensibly altruistic behavior in international humanitarian aid. |
| Keywords: | humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, aid speed, donor competition, United Nations, emergency appeals, trade competition |
| JEL: | F35 F42 F53 H12 H84 O19 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:320426 |
| By: | Sterc, Olivier |
| Abstract: | Delays in aid delivery are common, yet their impacts on households and markets remain theoretically ambiguous and empirically understudied. The Permanent Income Hypothesis predicts consumption smoothing, while models with financial constraints or present bias predict sharp consumption declines. We test these pre¬dictions using high-frequency data and random interview timing in a large refugee camp in Kenya. While households smooth consumption under regular aid cycles, delays reduce food consumption and well-being, with downstream effects on in-tertemporal preferences and cognitive function. Local prices respond to aid timing, and credit access mitigates impacts, but at a 17% premium. Results support credit constraint models. |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers; Consumption smoothing; Permanent Income Hypothesis; Humanitarian assistance; Delays |
| JEL: | D50 I38 O12 O19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-08 |
| By: | Sarun Kamolthip |
| Abstract: | This paper examines weather fluctuations’ effects on subnational economic growth in Thailand (1982-2022). The identification strategy employs fixed-effects panel regressions on plausibly exogenous yearto- year weather variations within provinces, isolating local temperature’s causal effects on economic outcomes. Results reveal a statistically significant inverted-U relationship between temperature and per capita GPP growth. These adverse effects operate as persistent growth impacts, which appear more prominent in lower-income provinces, though formal statistical differences in response functions across income levels were not observed. Agriculture is highly vulnerable, while industrial and service sectors show no significant direct temperature impacts in this analysis. Integrating these estimates with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections, future damages are widespread and severe. Without bias-correction, climate change is projected to reduce per capita output for 63-86% of Thai population, with median GDP per capita impacts from -4% to +56% (RCP4.5) and -52% to -15% (RCP8.5). However, accounting for climate model biases, even without lagged dynamics, median losses increase to 57-63% (RCP4.5) and 80-86% (RCP8.5). With lagged temperature effects, projections show substantially higher losses, leading to near-total output loss by 2090 with negligible positive likelihood. These findings highlight critical masked within-country disparities, as initial benefits in colder regions are reduced. This projection sensitivity underscores significant caveats in quantifying future economic burdens. Policy implications stress the imperative for decentralized, tailored responses leveraging granular data for highly vulnerable provinces. The persistent growth effects necessitate urgent proactive adaptation strategies, including investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, particularly for vulnerable agricultural regions. |
| Keywords: | Weather fluctuations; Economic growth; Thailand |
| JEL: | O44 Q51 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:235 |
| By: | Mahreen Khan; Atonu Rabbani; Christopher Woodruff |
| Abstract: | The garment sector has contributed to an increase in women’s labor force participation in Bangladesh. But while women are now a majority of the sector’s 4.2 million workers, women’s representation in management roles remains low. We conduct an evaluation of an IFC program that successfully increased the share of female line supervisors in 50 participating factories from 10 percent to 18 percent. We find that sewing machine operators supervised by the women rate them more favorably than a matched sample of male supervisors. Moreover, while productivity on the lines the women manage is lower than the matched comparison lines in the first six months following the program, women catch up to the male-managed lines after that and, indeed, significantly outperform the male-supervised lines after two years of experience. |
| Keywords: | female management; Bangladeshi garment sector; export manufacturing |
| JEL: | J16 J71 M51 M54 O14 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-07 |
| By: | Malla, Sunil; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Heger, Martin |
| Abstract: | The residential sector is one of the main consumers of energy in Nepal, with cooking being a major end-use. Unprocessed solid biomass fuels are the primary cooking fuels, with approximately 60% of households relying on them for their cooking needs. However, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is entirely imported, is being widely adopted in urban areas. Electricity, which is primarily based on hydropower, a clean domestic energy source, has been used for cooking in less than one percent of households. This paper examines the cost economics of alternative technologies and fuels or their combinations for household cooking across different topographical regions in Nepal from both private and social perspectives. It finds electricity, on average, cheaper than fossil fuels but costlier than biomass fuels from a private perspective. If the costs of local air pollutants, particularly PM2.5, are considered, electricity would be the cheapest option for cooking, except for biogas, which also has minimal external costs. The study also attempts to explore the wider economic benefits of substituting imported LPG with domestic hydropower for household cooking. |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11157 |
| By: | Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the constraints within Papua New Guinea's vegetable sector, drawing on large scale household surveys, extensive qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, and Large Language Model (LLM) methods. Our survey data reveal that vegetable production is ubiquitous, with almost all households surveyed (91%) growing at least one vegetable. Indigenous varieties, such as leafy greens (96%) and fresh beans (69%), are widely cultivated across regions, while high-value vegetables like onion (17%) and tomato (19%) show more regional concentration. Over half (53%) of PNG vegetable farmers sell their produce, with farmers located in the nonseasonal highlands agro-ecological area leading in market participation (66%), contributing to an overall commercialization rate of 24% (defined as the share of pro duction sold). However, modern input use, particularly improved seed adoption, significantly lags behind output commercialization in all agroecological zones except the islands survey areas. The quantitative analysis, using the PNG Rural Household Survey 2023, and the qualitative analysis, drawing from both manual review and LLM-assisted processing of in-depth interview notes, consistently identify poor feeder roads as critical bottlenecks for every stakeholder across PNG's vegetable value chain. Beyond transportation, these interviews repeatedly highlighted persistent seed supply shortages and high seed costs as significant hurdles. Since PNG depends on imported vegetable seeds, several structural and procedural barriers contribute to these shortages. These include potentially arduous quarantine procedures, limited foreign exchange for seed imports, and cumbersome permit processes, often leaving major distributors with insufficient stock. These reported bottlenecks may contribute to the low improved seed adoption and use reflected in the household survey analysis. |
| Keywords: | vegetables; large language models; commercialization; household surveys; artificial intelligence; Papua New Guinea; Melanesia; Oceania; Asia |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:175558 |