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on Development |
| By: | Gonzalez Alvaredo, Facundo; De Rosa, Mauricio; Flores, Ignacio; Morgan, Marc |
| Abstract: | Large gaps exist between income estimates from inequality studies and macroeconomic statistics, questioning our representation of flows and the relevance of economic growth. We take stock of these gaps by confronting multiple datasets in Latin America, finding that surveys account for around half of macroeconomic income over the past twenty years. Less than half of this gap is due to conceptual differences, the remainder coming from growing measurement issues, which mainly concern capital incomes. Top tails in administrative data and surveys present diverging averages, especially for non-wage incomes, and different shapes. We discuss implications for both inequality levels and trends. |
| Keywords: | surveys; national accounts; administrative data; data gaps; income distribution; Latin America |
| JEL: | D30 E01 N36 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128509 |
| By: | Hidrobo, Melissa; Mueller, Valerie; Roy, Shalini; Fall, Cheikh Modou Noreyni; Lavaysse, Christophe; Belli, Anna |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; gender; men; rainfall; shock; women; social protection; Mali; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:163076 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John |
| Abstract: | Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | subsidies; fertilizers; resilience; supply chain disruptions; supply chains; global value chains; maize; smallholders; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168639 |
| By: | Marina Ngoma Mavungu |
| Abstract: | The rise of China in the global economy has been linked with negative impacts on employment across many high- and middle-income countries. However, evidence for African countries is limited. This paper investigates the causal relationship between Chinese imports and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Imports may harm domestic firms through a revenue effect (lower market shares) or benefit them, indirectly if competition spurs innovation or directly through access to better quality or cheaper inputs. The analysis shows that a one unit increase in import penetration leads to a 15.2 percent increase in industry employment. The inputs effect is disentangled from the other two effects by decomposing total Chinese imports by their end-use category using input-output tables. The evidence shows that imported intermediate inputs are driving the employment gains. The findings are consistent with the idea that employment gains are a result of productivity gains and increases in capacity utilization. These employment gains appear to benefit large firms and labor-intensive industries disproportionately. |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11118 |
| By: | Maria Davalos; Juan Manuel Monroy Barragan |
| Abstract: | Abstract The circumstances into which individuals are born are beyond their control, yet they play a significant role in shaping people’s economic opportunities and are thus key drivers of inequality and its persistence over time. Understanding the role of place of birth is essential to understanding inequality of opportunities and social mobility, both of which directly affect overall inequality. This paper uses machine learning techniques and data from Colombia, one of the most unequal countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, to estimate inequality of opportunity and intergenerational education mobility indexes. The analysis incorporate place of birth and a more granular geographic lens to capture the extent of regional disparities. The findings show that 49 percent of the Gini income inequality is explained by circumstances at birth, and place of birth accounts for up to half of these inequalities. Intergenerational mobility measures at the department (province) level also reveal striking disparities in opportunities across the country. These findings underscore the critical role that place of birth plays in perpetuating inequality, providing important insights for policies aimed at promoting social mobility and reducing territorial disparities. |
| Date: | 2025–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11126 |
| By: | Farjana, Fariha; Nguyen, Thanh Tung; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | The internet is expanding at a rapid rate, which is true even in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. The internet affects how people produce and consume food and other goods and services. This may also have implications for incomes and diets in smallholder farm households, where poverty and undernourishment are still commonplace. Here, we use primary data collected from 720 farm households in Bangladesh to analyze how using the internet affects agricultural production activities and food consumption choices. Potential issues of endogeneity are addressed through an instrumental variable approach and other quasi-experimental methods. Our results suggest that using the internet increases farm production diversity, commercialization, and income by improving farmers’ access to markets, information, and innovative ideas. We also find positive effects on dietary diversity, even though the results depend on the concrete dietary indicators used. Strikingly, using the internet seems to encourage the production of certain nutritious and profitable foods but does not always lead to an increase in their consumption. Our results highlight the important role of the internet in enhancing farm productivity, income, and potentially also diets. At the same time, our findings also suggest that more efforts are needed to improve dietary outcomes and nutrition. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:358944 |
| By: | Ibrahim Hanafy Mohammad, Hind |
| Abstract: | Social cash transfers (SCTs) are considered a priority in least-developed countries, where the gap between the need for basic social protection and existing provisions is greatest. This study represents one of the first comprehensive impact evaluation treatments for Takaful and Karamah social cash transfer programs in Egypt. The results, based on propensity score matching (PSM) and odds-weighted regression, and data from the HIECS 2017-2018, confirm positive SCTs effects on per capita non-food consumption expenditures including healthcare and education for beneficiary households. The results also indicate threshold effects with SCTs mostly impacting healthcare expenditure among asset-poorer beneficiary households and education expenditure among asset-wealthier beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | Social cash transfers, impact evaluation, consumption expenditure, propensity score matching, odds-weighted regression |
| JEL: | I38 O2 D63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:319784 |
| By: | Garcia-Hernandez, Ana (Universidad del Rosario); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Steinert, Janina Isabel (Technical University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the five-year impacts of a bicycle distribution program for adolescent girls in rural Zambia, implemented across 91 schools as part of a randomized controlled trial. While the program increased girls’ self-reported empowerment and reduced experiences of domestic and intimate partner violence, it also led to higher rates of early marriage and teenage pregnancy—outcomes that run counter to the program’s objectives. We explore mechanisms behind this paradox, including improved socioeconomic status and increased receipt of bride prices, which may reflect girls’ higher perceived value in the marriage market. These findings suggest that girls may have exercised greater agency by making strategic decisions about marriage and childbearing. Our results underscore the complex interplay between empowerment, economic mobility, and local norms, and highlight the importance of accounting for potential unintended consequences when designing gender-focused development interventions. |
| Keywords: | intimate partner violence, domestic violence, fertility, marriage, female empowerment, bicycles, Zambia, RCT |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 O10 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17903 |
| By: | Huynh, Quynh (University College London); Ku, Hyejin (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between economic development and female labor force participation, with a focus on the impact of gender norms. Analyzing quasi-random variation in provincial exports in reunified Vietnam from 2002 to 2018, we find that a positive economic shock led to a significant decline in women’s labor market engagement, particularly among married women from wealthier households and those with husbands in more skilled occupations. This trend is more pronounced in the South (formerly capitalist) than in the North (always socialist), and among native Southerners compared to Northerners relocated to the South after the war. Our findings highlight the importance of gender role attitudes in shaping women’s responses to rising incomes. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, social norms, gender role attitudes, income and substitution effects, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | J16 J22 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17911 |
| By: | Headey, Derek D. |
| Abstract: | Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts. |
| Keywords: | food insecurity; malnutrition; prevalence of undernourishment; poverty; stunting |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:169686 |
| By: | Bagnoli, Lisa (Inter-American Development Bank); Delgado, Lucía (Inter-American Development Bank); Luza, Jerónimo (Inter-American Development Bank); Mitnik, Oscar A. (Inter-American Development Bank); Pasman, Clara (Bocconi University); Serebrisky, Tomás (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced a significant increase in natural disasters, posing significant threats to infrastructure and economic activity, particularly in regions with poor infrastructure. Understanding the patterns in recovery time after disasters is key to designing accurate responses to natural hazards. In this paper, we develop a methodological approach and use Hurricane Odile, which struck Baja California Sur, Mexico, in September 2014, as a case study to understand the recovery paths following such disasters. We rely on nighttime lights data to capture the initial impact and eventual recovery of electricity service and economic activity in the area of impact of the hurricane. We find that the average luminosity dropped to 78% of pre-hurricane levels immediately after the event and did not fully recover within a year. Impacts are heterogeneous, with localities such as Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo experiencing more severe impacts and slower recovery compared to La Paz, which recovered faster. These results suggest that disaster evaluation, mitigation policies, and preventive measures against disaster impacts should be tailored to local realities. |
| Keywords: | resilience, natural disasters, electricity service, economic activity recovery, nighttime light, hurricane, Mexico |
| JEL: | O13 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17909 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, Abenezer |
| Abstract: | Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation. |
| Keywords: | public works; public investment; watershed management; small-scale irrigation; nutrition; resilience; social safety nets; food security; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168643 |
| By: | Katoch, Sonali; Kumar, Anjani; Kolady, Deepthi E.; Sharma, Kriti |
| Abstract: | This study examines the adoption of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional data collected at the farm level in three key states of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh in 2023. A Food Safety Index (FSI) was developed to assess the intensity of adoption of food safety practices. Determinants of compliance with practices were assessed using multiple linear regression and an ordered logistic model. Generalized propensity score matching was used to evaluate the heterogenous impact of the adoption of FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are embracing a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the food safety index at the farm level. The various socioeconomic and demographic factors influence compliance with FSM which include education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure. The impact assessment reveals the direct relationship between FSM compliance and performance indicators. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, and strengthening formal marketing channels. |
| Keywords: | dairy farming; data; food safety; impact assessment; smallholders; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:152508 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; armed conflicts; climate change; weather hazards; inputs; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168640 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face. |
| Keywords: | farm inputs; financial inclusion; food security; households; inorganic fertilizers; seeds; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162588 |
| By: | Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1, 053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit. |
| Keywords: | credit; productivity; investment; smallholders; welfare; risk; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:163758 |
| By: | Pieper, Theresa; Nguyen, Thanh Tung; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | Electrification typically promotes economic development and enhances household wellbeing. However, how electrification affects the economic activities of different demographic groups is not yet sufficiently understood. Focusing only on aggregate household-level outcomes may overlook unequal effects on different individuals, which may potentially result in intra-household inequities. Here, we use panel data from Ethiopia to analyze the implications for different groups of individuals. Specifically, we analyze how electrification is associated with labor time allocation of male and female adults, children, and elderly household members. For adults, we find that electrification is positively associated with off-farm working hours and negatively associated with time spent on own farming activities and unpaid housework such as firewood and water fetching. For working-age women, the positive association with the time spent on off-farm activities is particularly large. For children, most of the associations are not statistically significant, even though electrification seems to increase boy’s time allocation to own farming activities, possibly substituting for some of the reduced adult time spent on farming. Differentiating between sources of electricity, we find that the effects are typically larger for grid than for off-grid solar electricity. Our results suggest that electrification is economically beneficial and can promote more gender-equitable labor outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:358945 |
| By: | Adeyanju, Dolapo; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Gelli, Aulo; Idowu, Ifetayo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income. The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals. |
| Keywords: | school feeding; efficiency; sustainability; agricultural development; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:158431 |
| By: | Kariuki, Sarah W.; Mohamed, Asha B.; Mutuku, Urbanus; Mutegi, Charity; Bandyopadhyay, Ranajit; Hoffmann, Vivian |
| Abstract: | Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact. |
| Keywords: | food safety; aflatoxins; impact assessment; agricultural technology; smallholders; training; maize; crops; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168192 |