|
on Development |
| By: | Aysegül Kayaoglu; Ghassan Baliki; Tilman Brück; |
| Abstract: | Climate change and violent conflict are defining challenges of our time. However, it is not yet understood how they interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate their impact. To address these knowledge gaps, we first examine how household food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Second, we test what mechanisms can reduce the negative impacts of these shocks. Our empirical analysis relies on novel survey data of 7, 908 rural households collected across 14 states in Sudan in 2022. Sudan currently faces floods, droughts, and violent conflict affecting agricultural production and food supply. We find that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS. Both productive and non-productive assets increase FCS for all households, especially female-headed households. Longer distances to agricultural input and output markets correlate with lower FCS, particularly for male-headed households. Women’s social group membership positively impacts on FCS for female-headed households. However, women do not receive additional benefits from other social networks during climate and conflict exposure, while male-headed households benefit from all types of social networks. Income diversification is identified as a key strategy for improving FCS, particularly for female-headed households during conflict. Informal cash transfers significantly improve FCS, especially for female-headed households. In contrast, formal cash transfers negatively correlate with FCS, although they positively impact on male-headed households during violent conflict. Overall, we recommend targeted social protection programmes that address gender disparities and enhance resilience among vulnerable populations. |
| Keywords: | climate change, conflict, food security, gender, social protection, sudan |
| JEL: | I31 J16 Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:423 |
| By: | Mr. Rabah Arezki; Youssouf Camara; Patrick A. Imam; Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of (big) shocks on the allocation of (bilateral) aid using natural disasters as natural experiments. We find that aid commitment statistically significantly increases following natural disasters, and that humanitarian aid precedes structural aid. While we find that the average effect is quantitatively significant, poorest countries or countries faced with most damaging natural disasters do not receive the most aid. We find no evidence that foreign aid commitment disburses faster following natural disasters. Further explorations into the mechanisms driving aid in disaster countries point to the importance of political alignment with (major) donors in recipient countries with low state capacity. |
| Keywords: | Aid Allocation; Natural Disasters; Political Alignment; Absorptive Capacity |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/006 |
| By: | Luisito Bertinelli (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU); Arrnaud Bourgain (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU); Elisabeth Kempter (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU) |
| Abstract: | How do cash crop price shocks shape migration intentions in rural, agriculturally intensive regions of sub- Saharan Africa? Focusing on communities heavily reliant on cash crop income, we examine migration intentions following negative cash crop price shocks. Using a difference-in-differences approach with continuous treatment, we analyze data from 278, 898 rural individuals across 432 regions in 41 sub- Saharan African countries. The results indicate that a negative cash crop price shock increases the likelihood of international migration intentions, an effect that is particularly pronounced in regions with higher cropland intensity. These findings are confirmed by several additional analyses and contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between agricultural livelihood instability and migration intentions in sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | migration, cash crops, agriculture, economic and price shocks, sub-Saharan Africa. |
| JEL: | F22 R23 Q10 E30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-03 |
| By: | Aritri Chakravarty (Assistant Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, 600025) |
| Abstract: | The NSSO report (2015) shows that 41 percent of the rural households in India have accessed information and 34 percent households have used them. This paper explores the households’ use of information and understand their preference of information sources and their determinants. Households with better socio-economic conditions access information and from multiple sources. Media has the highest access while public sources have the lowest. Most of the households accessing information use it but the source-wise adoption rates show that, the source with the highest access, media, has the lowest use. This study tries to identify potential factors that lead to a systematic difference in using patterns across households and also across sources. Almost 80 percent of the households accessing information have used it and those not using information have cited lack of credit as a big hurdle to adoption among other reasons. Source-wise disaggregation of use shows that media has the lowest use at around 60 percent, even though it is the highest accessed resource. For all other sources, the share hovers around 80 to 90 percent. The analysis uses a Heckman Selection model to identify the potential factors that drive information use and also the differences between users and non-users of information from media. Overall, use of information is driven more by education and availability of credit than by other factors directly. Caste doesn’t appear to be a significant determinant of use directly, but obviously through the caste dynamics that shape different outcomes like education, access to information and access to credit. This analysis finds evidence to support the existing argument that development of human capital is crucial in processing information and using it for efficiency gains. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Information, Sample selection bias, human capital |
| JEL: | Q12 O13 D81 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2024-273 |
| By: | Arrouna Keita (University of Orl´eans) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the Public Agricultural Expenditure Efficiency (PAEE) in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, focusing on the impact of the proportion of cash crops production on this efficiency. We first compute the Bias-corrected Technical Efficiency (BTE) Scores of 39 SSA countries from 2003 to 2017, using the Bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis method, with per capita public agricultural expenditure as input, and food security indicators as output. Second, we assess the effect of cash crops share in harvested land (CSHL) on the PAEE using Beta regression. (i) our results show that in most SSA countries(79%), CSHL is on average less than 15%. (ii) findings indicate a significant positive effect of CSHL on the PAEE, suggesting that a higher proportion of cash crops in agricultural production enhances food security. (iii) results for SSA countries where CSHL is high are in line with the aim of the commitments made by African countries in Maputo (2003) declarations to fight hunger by allocating at least 10% of their public spending to agriculture—aligning with the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger by 2030. Our results are robust to a battery of robustness tests. |
| Keywords: | Public agricultural spending efficiency, food security, zero-hunger SDG, Sub- Saharan Africa, DEA-Bootstrap |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.17 |
| By: | Karelys Guzman-Finol; Sandy Dall’erba; Angela C. Lyons; Jorge Eiras-Barca |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of annual temperature and precipitation on rice yields in Colombia from 1987 to 2016. The analysis explores the degree of variation in response to climate changes across the country’s diverse topography. Since there are two growing seasons in Colombia, the effects of the weather conditions for these two seasons are independently investigated. Additionally, rice yields are projected for two periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) based on the RCP 4.5, 6.5, and 8.0 of future climate scenarios. We found a positive effect of rainfall and temperature on yields, although one variable attenuates the effect of the other. The early season temperature and the later season precipitation were the main drivers of the yield. Effects were larger in departments with higher altitudes. Projections show that temperature and precipitation changes will cause rice yields to increase by 10% over 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, with respect to the reference period 1987-2016. **** ABSTRAC: En este documento estimamos los efectos de la temperatura y la precipitación en el rendimiento del arroz en Colombia, utilizando datos anuales a nivel departamental entre 1987 y 2016. El análisis explora como estos efectos varían de acuerdo a la altitud media del departamento y al periodo en el que se miden las variables. Adicionalmente, realizamos proyecciones del rendimiento del arroz para los periodos 2046-2065 y 2081-2100, con base en los escenarios RCP 4.5, 6.5, y 8.0 de cambio climático. Encontramos que la temperatura y la precipitación tienen un efecto positivo en el rendimiento del arroz, aunque cada variable atenúa el efecto de la otra. La temperatura del primer semestre y la precipitación del segundo semestre fueron los principales impulsadores del rendimiento anual. Los efectos fueron más considerables en los departamentos con mayor altitud promedio. Las proyecciones muestran que (todo lo demás constante) los cambios en la temperatura y la precipitación harán que el rendimiento aumente en un 10% en los periodos 2046-2065 y 2081-2100, con respecto al periodo de referencia (1987-2016). |
| Keywords: | rice yields, irrigation, rainfed, temperature, precipitation, climate change, arroz, rendimiento, secano, temperatura, precipitación, cambio climático |
| JEL: | R11 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1299 |
| By: | Jefferson Muñoz; Alex Perez; Jaime Carabali |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the effect of weather shocks on firms' productivity and performance. Over the last decades, the world has faced a notable increase in extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and devastating. These weather shocks affect firms' productivity, ultimately affecting their performance in the market. We propose an estimation strategy that allows us to quantify these effects. We use data of EAM from DANE and climate information from CHIRPS and Copernicus. Our results show evidence that weather shocks negatively affect firms' productivity, which translates into lower firm performance on different variables, such as ROA, gross investment, and added value. **** RESUMEN: En este trabajo estudiamos el efecto de los choques climáticos sobre la productividad y el desempeño de las firmas. Durante las últimas décadas, el mundo se ha enfrentado al incremento notable de los eventos climáticos extremos, los cuales son cada vez más frecuentes y fuertes. Estos choques climáticos tienen efectos sobre la productividad de las firmas, lo cual termina afectando el desempeño de estas en el mercado. Nosotros proponemos una estrategia de estimación que nos permite cuantificar estos efectos. Utilizamos datos de la EAM del DANE, junto con información climática de CHIRPS y Copernicus. Nuestros resultados muestran evidencia de que los choques climáticos afectan negativamente la productividad de las firmas, lo cual se traduce en un menor desempeño de las firmas, en diferentes frentes como el ROA, la inversión bruta y el valor agregado. |
| Keywords: | Desempeño, productividad, choques climáticos, industria manufacturera, Performance, productivity, weather shocks, manufacturing industry. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 D24 O14 O44 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1298 |
| By: | Malkún Montoya, Samuel (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | In just over ten years trade between Colombia and Venezuela vanished due to diplomatic tensions between both nations and the economic crisis in Venezuela. This study examines the impact of political disruptions, particularly stemming from Colombia's Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States in 2009, on Colombian exports to Venezuela. Employing a gravity model incorporating time-varying and country-pair fixed effects, this research forecasts trade flows and compares them to the observed export data. While predicted exports mirror the observed data during most of the series, since 2010 both trends have deviated significantly. Between 2010 and 2015 losses amounted to $6bn, as only 65% of predicted trade took place. In contrast, Colombian exports to other partners in the region maintained an upward trajectory. |
| Keywords: | economic diplomacy; trade |
| JEL: | F17 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021297 |
| By: | Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo; Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra; Jorge Leonardo Rodríguez-Arenas |
| Abstract: | En las últimas décadas, Colombia ha avanzado en la reducción de brechas de género en la cobertura educativa, pero persisten desigualdades significativas en el desempeño académico entre niños y niñas. Este estudio analiza dichas brechas durante el período 2014-2023, empleando un enfoque econométrico basado en las metodologías de Heckman (1979) y Arellano y Bonhomme (2017), y dos metodologías de emparejamiento propuestas por Iacus, King y Porro (2011) y Abadie e Imbens (2006; 2011). Se utilizan datos longitudinales de los resultados de estudiantes que presentaron las pruebas de desempeño académico en el grado 5° (Saber 5°) y en el grado 11° (Saber 11°), permitiendo controlar por variables como desempeño previo, condiciones socioeconómicas, características de los planteles educativos, ambiente escolar, y discapacidad, entre otros. Los resultados indican que, en 2023, los hombres superan a las mujeres en matemáticas y ciencias naturales al finalizar el grado 11°, incluso después de controlar por los diferentes factores. Sin embargo, estas diferencias no son completamente explicadas por las variables observadas, lo que sugiere la influencia de factores no observables, como normas sociales, estereotipos de género, y aversión al riesgo, entre otros. Este análisis subraya la necesidad de políticas públicas que aborden las desigualdades en el sistema educativo, dado el impacto del desempeño académico en las oportunidades futuras de las mujeres. **** ABTRACT: In recent decades, Colombia has made progress in reducing gender gaps in educational coverage, but inequalities in academic performance between boys and girls persist. This study analyzes these gaps during the period 2014–2023, employing an econometric approach based on the methodologies of Heckman (1979) and Arellano and Bonhomme (2017), as well as two matching methodologies proposed by Iacus, King, and Porro (2011) and Abadie and Imbens (2006; 2011). The analysis uses longitudinal data from students who took academic performance tests in 5th grade (Saber 5°) and 11th grade (Saber 11°), allowing control for variables such as prior performance, socioeconomic conditions, school characteristics, educational environment, and disabilities. The results indicate that, in 2023, boys outperform girls in mathematics and natural sciences at the end of 11th grade, even after controlling for various factors. However, these differences are not fully explained by the observed variables, suggesting the influence of unobservable factors such as social norms, gender stereotypes, and risk aversion, among others. This analysis underscores the need for public policies that address inequalities in the educational system, given the impact of academic performance on women’s future opportunities. |
| Keywords: | brecha de género, educación secundaria y media, desempeño académico, sesgo de selección, emparejamiento, gender gap, high school, academic performance, selection bias, matching |
| JEL: | C21 C34 I21 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1301 |
| By: | Pineda Salazar, Ramón; Albornoz, Sonia; Aravena, Claudio; Gálvez, Tomás |
| Abstract: | Entre 2013 y 2022, las economías de la región han registrado la menor tasa de crecimiento del número de ocupados desde 1950. Pero no sólo se están creando cada vez menos empleos, sino que la mayoría de los empleos que se crean son informales. El menor crecimiento del PIB sin duda constituye una de las razones detrás de estos hechos, pero más allá del impacto que el bajo crecimiento económico tiene en la dinámica de la ocupación informal, hay ciertos grupos que suelen ser más propensos a obtener empleos informales que otros. En este estudio, empleando una definición harmonizada de “ocupación informal” inspirada en las propuestas del CIET 21, se analiza para 14 países de la región cómo la probabilidad de informalidad varía según características socioeconómicas de las personas ocupadas entre 2013 y 2022. De los resultados se desprende que: i) la educación afecta de manera significativa la probabilidad de que un ocupado sea informal, cuanto mayor es el nivel educativo de la persona ocupada, menos probable es que sea informal; ii) la ocupación informal suele ser mayor tanto en los jóvenes como personas mayores, aunque por razones distintas; iii) la probabilidad de que un ocupado sea informal se incrementa si la persona es mujer, especialmente, cuando existen dependientes en el hogar; iv) un ocupado que vive en una zona urbana es menos propenso a ser informal que alguien que vive en zonas rurales, y v) los migrantes son más propensos a ser informales que los nacionales del país. Los resultados reflejan que la informalidad laboral es un fenómeno que depende de múltiples factores, por lo tanto, la formalidad laboral solo podrá aumentar si se aplican una serie de políticas que se complementen y atiendan la gran diversidad de aspectos que la condicionan. En este sentido, el informe plantea que es necesario integrar políticas laborales y productivas que estimulen un mayor crecimiento económico y que faciliten la creación de empleos formales, en especial entre aquellos grupos que son más vulnerables. Adicionalmente, es necesario impulsar políticas que incentiven a pequeños productores y empresarios para que formalicen sus actividades. |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col037:81103 |